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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    F1: a mere 19 hours after the race finish, here's some post-race rambling:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/us-post-race-analysis.html

    The Constructors' is actually pretty interesting at the lower end now.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,992

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My attempts to flog a reasonably risk free (99.5+% chance of landing) £50 for a £500 bet on Ratesetter not going bust in the next month are failing miserably. Are people just naturally cautious or does noone have £500 to spare in their account these days ;p.

    They think: if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true?
    It's an introductory marketing offer ^^; like the £150 First Direct or TSB pay out when you switch bank accounts. (Or Corals 5-1 £5 Man U corner thingy)

    I've got a whole bunch more if people want them, but those really do involve some level of time, effort and risk. So I'm not going to bother anyone here with them.
    Check your vanilla
    Thanks, and really appreciated. I wouldn't post things up on here if I thought people might possibly lose out.

    Avoid Wellesley imo, you can get much higher rates, flexibility and diversity at around 12-13% for the bridging loan stuff they offer at around 6-7%, as they spend all their spare cash spamming up daytime TV.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    surbiton said:

    Average Tory lead

    Since Jezza's investiture (11 polls) = 7%
    Before Jezza's leadership victory, and after the GE (14 polls) = 9%

    And that too because of the weird 2 ComRes polls.
    Lol - you mean the 2 polls from the one company which has changed it's methodology in response to the shambolic performance from pollsters at the recent GE. The rest have yet to change so are as likely to be as wrong now as they were then.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2015
    Ipsos were a real oddity in the run up to the election, being the one phone pollster that consistently gave Labour the lead while ComRes, Ashcroft and ICM almost always had Tory leads.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited October 2015
    ydoethur said:

    surbiton said:

    Fraser Nelson:

    "I doubt that the Chancellor realised any of this when he set out to reform tax credits. I suspect he is having one of his omnishambles moments, when the implications of his proposals are evident only after their publication. He kept this a secret during the campaign, and is now paying the price – because it meant very little proper analysis has been done. As Osborne found out during the Omnishambles Budget, the Treasury isn’t very good at working out unintended consequences of its actions.

    In tearing tax credits away from people – rather than phasing them out, which is the obvious thing to do – Osborne now risks inflicting grave damage to his party’s reputation. Doing it his way will save just £3.5 billion, not much for a government that spends north of £600 billion. There are many, many other ways to find this saving. Economically, it is just not necessary. Politically, this could be an epic act of self-harm."

    This reminds me of the Brown budget of 2007, which abolished the 10p tax rate to pay for a cut in the basic rate. It was wrong economically, wrong socially, wrong fiscally - wrong in just about every possible way. All it was designed to do was guarantee that Brown would replace Blair as PM, which was going to happen anyway. .....And of course, in the end it proved wrong politically - it caused chaos in the Labour party and wrecked Brown's lingering reputation for competence and fairness.
    I agree. Osborne's spread himself too thin and is making mistakes.
    Notenough time spent thinking through the implementation and the HoL. If he had used legislation rather than SI he could have got it through quicker. Modelling the impacts looks inept for the first years since he could take most of that pain away for the loss of a billion.
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    chestnut said:

    Ipsos were a real oddity in the run up to the election, being the one phone pollster that consistently gave Labour the lead while ComRes, Ashcroft and ICM almost always had Tory leads.

    Thanks for reminding us. Polling companies polls should come with some level of sanity warning.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited October 2015
    JEO said:

    Danny565 said:

    I never understand this line of argument from you. Farage or any of the other "Out" leaders are not going to be the ones in charge of what happens after a Brexit, so I don't understand why you keep saying the onus is on them to give a "vision".

    Because they are being dishonest. They say, or imply, that if we were to leave the EU we'd have 'control of our borders'. When challenged about the economic risks, they say it's OK because we could stay in the EEA. One of those might be true, but they can't both be.

    It's called 'trying to have your cake and eat it', is it not? I'm not suggesting Farage would be in charge, I'm asking him to be honest about which of the above two contradictory positions he personally is taking.
    That does seem like a contradictory position. Perhaps their position is "well first we'd leave to the EEA, and then once we had signed trade deals outside it, we could then feel confident to leave the EEA too and control our borders"?

    I haven't heard them be explicit about that though. What I'd really like from the Leave campaign is a clear picture of what Brexit could look like: what sort of trade agreements, how could money be reassigned, what regulations could be removed and which ones should be replaced at the UK level, what a skills-based immigration policy could look like. It would be good to have one consolidated picture so a future is presented with trade-offs accepted. I know that wouldn't be the only future available, but it would be nice to see one coherent idea of what it could look like.
    Check out Iain Mansfield's Blueprint for Brexit. He covers what sort of trade deals we should aim for based on the ease at which they can be signed and the economic benefit to the UK. There is a more in depth analysis in the annex. FDI is also covered which indicates that it will more than likely remain economically neutral in the event of a Brexit.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,990
    edited October 2015
    twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/658669177243332609
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2015
    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2015
    chestnut said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


    Again, these may all be legitimate arguments on their own, but the problem is they directly contradict the Tories' main economic argument for the past few years. They've been jubilantly celebrating the supposed "jobs miracle" - yet you're now looking down your nose at the employment arrangements of a great swathe of the population, saying they're not in real jobs, and that they're being unjustly subsidised. They can't be both at the same time, the huge numbers of self-employed can't be simultaneously a sign of the Tories' wonderful economic management AND a big problem that needs to be urgently tackled.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,052
    chestnut said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


    God preserve me from my enemies. And even more from my friends!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    I'm getting the feeling that a slight reversal may be coming our way. Probably a more gradual introduction of the same policy?
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    Danny565 said:

    Again, these may all be legitimate arguments on their own, but the problem is they directly contradict the Tories' main economic argument for the past few years. They've been jubilantly celebrating the supposed "jobs miracle" - yet you're now looking down your nose at the employment arrangements of a great swathe of the population, saying they're not in real jobs, and that they're being unjustly subsidised. They can't be both at the same time.

    Nonsense. The vast majority of the new jobs are very much real jobs.

    However, the selection of case studies chosen by the Guardian - the Guardian - to show how dreadful Osborne's reforms are is quite remarkable. Either they seem to be nonsense - the full-time teacher one, for example - or cases where it's unclear why tax payers are subsidising them.

    And where are the fathers' contributions?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is that Guardianista attempting to sabotage something they secretly don't approve of?
    chestnut said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Danny565 said:

    Again, these may all be legitimate arguments on their own, but the problem is they directly contradict the Tories' main economic argument for the past few years. They've been jubilantly celebrating the supposed "jobs miracle" - yet you're now looking down your nose at the employment arrangements of a great swathe of the population, saying they're not in real jobs, and that they're being unjustly subsidised. They can't be both at the same time.

    Nonsense. The vast majority of the new jobs are very much real jobs.

    However, the selection of case studies chosen by the Guardian - the Guardian - to show how dreadful Osborne's reforms are is quite remarkable. Either they seem to be nonsense - the full-time teacher one, for example - or cases where it's unclear why tax payers are subsidising them.

    And where are the fathers' contributions?
    I was puzzled by the one claiming to receive no maintenance.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2015

    Danny565 said:

    Again, these may all be legitimate arguments on their own, but the problem is they directly contradict the Tories' main economic argument for the past few years. They've been jubilantly celebrating the supposed "jobs miracle" - yet you're now looking down your nose at the employment arrangements of a great swathe of the population, saying they're not in real jobs, and that they're being unjustly subsidised. They can't be both at the same time.

    Nonsense. The vast majority of the new jobs are very much real jobs.
    That depends on your definition of "real job". In terms of self-employed people who are making a profit (which seems to be what PBTories' definition of "real job" is when talking about people being subsidised by tax credits), I suspect the Tories would be surprised to see just how grim the stats would be on that front.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    What has the number of public sector jobs got to do with the number of private sector jobs? Your post seemed to suggest that the cut in public sector jobs caused the private sector not to recover.
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    Danny565 said:

    That depends on your definition of "real job". In terms of self-employed people who are making a profit (which seems to be what PBTories' definition of "real job" is when talking about people being subsidised by tax credits), I suspect the Tories would be surprised to see just how grim the stats would be on that front.

    It doesn't depend on the definition at all. Most of the new jobs created have comprised conventional, full-time employment.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    What has turnout got to do with it? We don't have mandatory voting.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    Self-employed people, while less well-paid than employees, are happier on average in their work than employed people and the RSA believes that most of the recent surge in self-employment happened because people preferred being their own boss rather than as a way to avoid unemployment:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93e651ba-e5bd-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ph6g7BqZ
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    chestnut said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


    Again, these may all be legitimate arguments on their own, but the problem is they directly contradict the Tories' main economic argument for the past few years. They've been jubilantly celebrating the supposed "jobs miracle" - yet you're now looking down your nose at the employment arrangements of a great swathe of the population, saying they're not in real jobs, and that they're being unjustly subsidised. They can't be both at the same time, the huge numbers of self-employed can't be simultaneously a sign of the Tories' wonderful economic management AND a big problem that needs to be urgently tackled.
    I'm not saying that people aren't in real jobs.

    I'm saying that some are exercising comfortable choices and that tax credits being used as pseudo-grants and to bump up credit ratings isn't their purpose, is it?

    Tax credits to fund Norwich-London train tickets for students.
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    One thing that is noticeable is the inadequate quality of the people that the Government is putting up to explain their case. Last week on one DP show it was John Hayes..... Today we had the uninspiring Matthew Hancock. On sunday it was Nicky the Ed Secy a clear case of over-promotion. For such a key policy, the govt are using third and fourth division people. A sign of trouble.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    What has the number of public sector jobs got to do with the number of private sector jobs? Your post seemed to suggest that the cut in public sector jobs caused the private sector not to recover.
    The whole idea behind cutting public-sector jobs was that it was OK, because additional private-sector jobs would eventually emerge to fill the void in the jobs market.

    Well, those additional private-sector jobs only emerged IF you consider self-employed people who have to be topped up by tax credits as real, legitimate jobs.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    What has the number of public sector jobs got to do with the number of private sector jobs? Your post seemed to suggest that the cut in public sector jobs caused the private sector not to recover.
    The whole idea behind cutting public-sector jobs was that it was OK, because additional private-sector jobs would eventually emerge to fill the void in the jobs market.

    Well, those additional private-sector jobs only emerged IF you consider self-employed people who have to be topped up by tax credits as real, legitimate jobs.
    Yeah, I was questioning statement that the private sector "NEVER recovered" from public sector job cuts. Not sure how the latter causes the former.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    One thing that is noticeable is the inadequate quality of the people that the Government is putting up to explain their case. Last week on one DP show it was John Hayes..... Today we had the uninspiring Matthew Hancock. On sunday it was Nicky the Ed Secy a clear case of over-promotion. For such a key policy, the govt are using third and fourth division people. A sign of trouble.

    Or a sign the policy will be tweaked and no senior figure wants to have to reverse ferret before Christmas.
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    RobD said:

    I'm getting the feeling that a slight reversal may be coming our way. Probably a more gradual introduction of the same policy?

    If the quality of folk willing to come forward and support the Govt position is any guide then a u-turn is imminent.
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    One thing that is noticeable is the inadequate quality of the people that the Government is putting up to explain their case. Last week on one DP show it was John Hayes..... Today we had the uninspiring Matthew Hancock. On sunday it was Nicky the Ed Secy a clear case of over-promotion. For such a key policy, the govt are using third and fourth division people. A sign of trouble.

    Or a sign the policy will be tweaked and no senior figure wants to have to reverse ferret before Christmas.
    Hits the nail on the head.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    I'm getting the feeling that a slight reversal may be coming our way. Probably a more gradual introduction of the same policy?

    If the quality of folk willing to come forward and support the Govt position is any guide then a u-turn is imminent.
    That, and the comments by their lordships.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    What has the number of public sector jobs got to do with the number of private sector jobs? Your post seemed to suggest that the cut in public sector jobs caused the private sector not to recover.
    The whole idea behind cutting public-sector jobs was that it was OK, because additional private-sector jobs would eventually emerge to fill the void in the jobs market.

    Well, those additional private-sector jobs only emerged IF you consider self-employed people who have to be topped up by tax credits as real, legitimate jobs.
    Tax credit claims have decreased by 1.8m since 2010, and the bill was higher back then so your suggested issue was already there under Labour.

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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    It would be helpful for the rest of us on PB if those posters who make comments about the new tax credit laws stated their position... as being in receipt of those benefits or not..
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,595

    Danny565 said:

    Again, these may all be legitimate arguments on their own, but the problem is they directly contradict the Tories' main economic argument for the past few years. They've been jubilantly celebrating the supposed "jobs miracle" - yet you're now looking down your nose at the employment arrangements of a great swathe of the population, saying they're not in real jobs, and that they're being unjustly subsidised. They can't be both at the same time.

    Nonsense. The vast majority of the new jobs are very much real jobs.

    However, the selection of case studies chosen by the Guardian - the Guardian - to show how dreadful Osborne's reforms are is quite remarkable. Either they seem to be nonsense - the full-time teacher one, for example - or cases where it's unclear why tax payers are subsidising them.

    And where are the fathers' contributions?
    CiF is funny - check out the top-rated (I think) comment:

    "Yes, the Tories are here and they hate you - having your children, playing music, being ill, being old, being young, - how dare you if you aren't filthy rich?

    Get it in your head - the Tories are the party of the filthy rich, they are only interested in the filthy rich and everyone else in this country is a mark, a stooge and a waste of air - yes, you. If you are not filthy rich your turn will soon come to be fleeced. They have not finished yet, they have still got years to get around to you, to destroy your home, your family and your community and to stuff their pockets before the next election."
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    It would be helpful for the rest of us on PB if those posters who make comments about the new tax credit laws stated their position... as being in receipt of those benefits or not..

    Why? Are only people in receipt of them allowed to make a comment, or only those that pay for it?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    One unfortunate thing about the impending climbdown on tax credit cuts is that it will convince the collection of wealthy great and the good people who stymied it that they matter. Not the electorate who voted in a tory government. No. What were the voters thinking?
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    RobD...Where did I say they should not comment..
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited October 2015

    RobD...Where did I say they should not comment..

    Why else would you ask, if not so you could weight their comment accordingly?
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    CiF is funny - check out the top-rated (I think) comment:

    "Yes, the Tories are here and they hate you - having your children, playing music, being ill, being old, being young, - how dare you if you aren't filthy rich?

    Get it in your head - the Tories are the party of the filthy rich, they are only interested in the filthy rich and everyone else in this country is a mark, a stooge and a waste of air - yes, you. If you are not filthy rich your turn will soon come to be fleeced. They have not finished yet, they have still got years to get around to you, to destroy your home, your family and your community and to stuff their pockets before the next election."

    Quite a few of the CIFers are in favour of the changes, or say that these examples don't support the contention that the changes are bad. For example:

    bandwagoned 7h ago

    Are these the best examples of hardship we can get?

    1. WTCs not intended to subsidise PhD studies.
    2. Having a young family in your 50s is often financially demanding.
    3. An experienced teacher dependent on WTCs? Really?
    4. WTCs not designed to encourage cultural enrichment.
    5. He/she has a point.
    6. Flat owner in Edinburgh - lucky woman.

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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Any debate I have ever taken part in.. and there have been many..the contributors were always asked to declare their personal interest..why not on PB..
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Quite a few of the CIFers are in favour of the changes, or say that these examples don't support the contention that the changes are bad. For example:''

    Perhaps this is why the government should have stood its ground. Looks unlikely now.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,052
    taffys said:

    One unfortunate thing about the impending climbdown on tax credit cuts is that it will convince the collection of wealthy great and the good people who stymied it that they matter. Not the electorate who voted in a tory government. No. What were the voters thinking?

    Most of us didn’t want a Tory government.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2015

    It would be helpful for the rest of us on PB if those posters who make comments about the new tax credit laws stated their position... as being in receipt of those benefits or not..

    I've received them in the past, and they were fantastic in that it was a time when I was too ill to work full-time, but tax credits allowed me to work part-time and still have a liveable income. Had it not been for them, I would've remained unemployed on sickness benefits.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Most of us didn’t want a Tory government.''

    And that is different to every other government because......???
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,414
    edited October 2015

    taffys said:

    One unfortunate thing about the impending climbdown on tax credit cuts is that it will convince the collection of wealthy great and the good people who stymied it that they matter. Not the electorate who voted in a tory government. No. What were the voters thinking?

    Most of us didn’t want a Tory government.
    But even more of us didn't want a Labour or LibDem government :lol:
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    It's a good Mori poll for Corbyn, and it shows the strong boundaries for any change in voting intention.

    I can't see the Tories doing much worse than 36% since 38% are satisfied with the government and can't see them going above 42% since that is the number of people satisfied with Cameron.
    Likewise I can't see Labour going bellow 32% since that is the number of people against removing Corbyn or above 37% which is the number satisfied with him.
    It's also crucial that he continues his improvement in those ratings, Milliband started at 41% and immediately slid to the low 30's

    However I'm surprised that Farage is now the most popular political leader and at new record highs for him, what happened?
    Is it the EU referendum, the immigration crisis or both?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2015

    It would be helpful for the rest of us on PB if those posters who make comments about the new tax credit laws stated their position... as being in receipt of those benefits or not..

    I have been commenting continuously. I have never claimed any benefit [ apart from CB - now cut ] ever. That, of course, includes TC.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    taffys said:

    One unfortunate thing about the impending climbdown on tax credit cuts is that it will convince the collection of wealthy great and the good people who stymied it that they matter. Not the electorate who voted in a tory government. No. What were the voters thinking?

    Most of us didn’t want a Tory government.
    Likewise for every government since 1931.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,052

    taffys said:

    One unfortunate thing about the impending climbdown on tax credit cuts is that it will convince the collection of wealthy great and the good people who stymied it that they matter. Not the electorate who voted in a tory government. No. What were the voters thinking?

    Most of us didn’t want a Tory government.
    But even more of us didn't want a Labour or LibDem government :lol:
    Sadly true.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819
    edited October 2015
    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    Interesting stat (probably been posted before, but...): In 2015, Cameron received a greater mandate from the electorate than Blair did in 2001.

    Which shows how irrelevant the "proportion of the electorate" stat actually is.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''It's a good Mori poll for Corbyn, and it shows the strong boundaries for any change in voting intention.''

    Yes but that is before labour footsoldiers have to sell Corbyn's policies on the doorstep. They are not the same as the policies of labour in the past.

    Unlimited benefits. Open door immigration. A by-election in a safe labour seat will tell us more.

    In real meaningful elections in the past 5 years labour has always underperformed its poll score.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Mr. Cooke, that's a very surprising fact. And it's good to see you on :)
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited October 2015
    @Danny565

    'The whole idea behind cutting public-sector jobs was that it was OK, because additional private-sector jobs would eventually emerge to fill the void in the jobs market.

    Well, those additional private-sector jobs only emerged IF you consider self-employed people who have to be topped up by tax credits as real, legitimate jobs'


    How many of the public sector jobs that were cut, were legitimate as in real jobs ?

    We seem to have managed remarkably well without them.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    RobD said:

    I'm getting the feeling that a slight reversal may be coming our way. Probably a more gradual introduction of the same policy?

    spelt UUUUUUUUUU turn
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Danny565 said:

    It would be helpful for the rest of us on PB if those posters who make comments about the new tax credit laws stated their position... as being in receipt of those benefits or not..

    I've received them in the past, and they were fantastic in that it was a time when I was too ill to work full-time, but tax credits allowed me to work part-time and still have a liveable income. Had it not been for them, I would've remained unemployed on sickness benefits.
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    What has the number of public sector jobs got to do with the number of private sector jobs? Your post seemed to suggest that the cut in public sector jobs caused the private sector not to recover.
    The whole idea behind cutting public-sector jobs was that it was OK, because additional private-sector jobs would eventually emerge to fill the void in the jobs market.

    Well, those additional private-sector jobs only emerged IF you consider self-employed people who have to be topped up by tax credits as real, legitimate jobs.
    Public sector March 2009 6.319 milion 21.7% of workforce
    Private sector march 2009 22.759 million 78.3% of workfoce

    Public sector june 2015 5.360 milion 17.2% of workforce
    Private sector june 2015 25.680 million 82.8% of workfoce

    you realise that self employed people minimise their income to maximise tax credits? There will be self employed builders out there driving around in 64 / 65 range rovers claiming full tax credits.
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    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    Interesting stat (probably been posted before, but...): In 2015, Cameron received a greater mandate from the electorate than Blair did in 2001.

    Which shows how irrelevant the "proportion of the electorate" stat actually is.
    2005, surely (not 2001?)
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,595

    taffys said:

    One unfortunate thing about the impending climbdown on tax credit cuts is that it will convince the collection of wealthy great and the good people who stymied it that they matter. Not the electorate who voted in a tory government. No. What were the voters thinking?

    Most of us didn’t want a Tory government.
    Is that actually even true? Compared to any other alternative government option or PM in GE2015, a forced choice, I'd expect a Conservative-led government with David Cameron as PM would have beaten any other.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    I'm getting the feeling that a slight reversal may be coming our way. Probably a more gradual introduction of the same policy?

    spelt UUUUUUUUUU turn
    tUUUUUrnip turn, surely?

    And really, a more gradual increase, while still getting the same result in the end, is not a U-turn. It does disservice to all the real U-turns.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    An interesting question, albeit only tangentially relevant to the topic.

    But in answer to your question:

    1) I'm unsure why 'registered electors' is relevant; if people cannot be bothered to vote, they should not have a say on their local representative. However, I'm in favour of compulsory voting with caveats. If the 'registered electors' thing bothers you, I assume you are as well?

    2) The arguments on voting systems are well rehearsed (maybe TSE will do an AV thread sometime - we're about due one). So what system do you want? AV? PR? PR^2? TSE's dictatorship?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Mr. G, if Scotland becomes independent, is it SNP policy to have its own F1 circuit? :p
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819

    Mr. Cooke, that's a very surprising fact. And it's good to see you on :)

    Thanks :)
    I still lurk, but with being busy for work and other reasons, by the time I catch up to comment, I usually feel I don't have anything worthwhile to say. So I don't :)

    I did find it amusing that Blair's 2001 landslide was achieved on support from 24.2% of the electorate as against Cameron's 24.4% in 2015. Seems to get overlooked when the latter stat is banded about.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2015

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Apart even delaying the Tax Credits bill is "unconstitutional". WTF do we have that place ?

    I would indeed like Cameron to create a 100 peers and the Queen to assent to that !

    World average for all bicameral parliaments = Upper House 44% the size of Lower House.
    A gradual solution could be [ a typical British one ] to elect, say , 100 Upper House members every 4 years on PR basis until we reach 300 members and the current voting Lords remain in situ until they die or resign. No further appointments.
    300 is still far too many. We could get by quite happily with half that.

    A rolling method of introduction / removal of existing peers, on the other hand, has a great deal to commend it. Personally, I'd go for elections for one-third of the House every three years (i.e. a nine-year term), but removing existing peers by natural wastage (perhaps with an 18-year limit), would be sensible.
    I would go along with that ! But 300 isn't far too many considering we do not have two tiers [ Senate and Assemblies ] in every county. Not even Scotland and Wales.

    Existing appointed peers will have to resign at the time of the first election when they are older than 75. They can get elected , of course.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    Interesting stat (probably been posted before, but...): In 2015, Cameron received a greater mandate from the electorate than Blair did in 2001.

    Which shows how irrelevant the "proportion of the electorate" stat actually is.
    2005, surely (not 2001?)
    2001 = 40.7% x 59.4% = 24.2%
    2005 = 35.2% x 61.4% = 21.6%

    2015 (for Cam) = 36.9% x 66.1% = 24.4%
  • Options

    It would be helpful for the rest of us on PB if those posters who make comments about the new tax credit laws stated their position... as being in receipt of those benefits or not..

    I received Trainspotting Allowance for roughly three months in each of 2004, 2007 and 2010, and then for six months in 2011 - but then my NI contributions were deemed to have run out, so I received nothing from October 2011 till I found work again in November 2013.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    antifrank said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    Self-employed people, while less well-paid than employees, are happier on average in their work than employed people and the RSA believes that most of the recent surge in self-employment happened because people preferred being their own boss rather than as a way to avoid unemployment:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93e651ba-e5bd-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ph6g7BqZ
    If you believe that you are not the full shilling. It gets them more than they would on JSA as they can get more benefits, so anyone would change to self employed if they cannot get a job. Tories love it as they can claim UK is booming.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819

    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    Interesting stat (probably been posted before, but...): In 2015, Cameron received a greater mandate from the electorate than Blair did in 2001.

    Which shows how irrelevant the "proportion of the electorate" stat actually is.
    2005, surely (not 2001?)
    In 2005, Blair had the support of 21.6% of the electorate.
    In 2001, he had 24.2%

    In 2010, Cameron had the support of 23.5% of the electorate (The Lib Dems had a further 15.0%).
    In 2015, he had the support of 24.4% of them.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,414
    edited October 2015

    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    Interesting stat (probably been posted before, but...): In 2015, Cameron received a greater mandate from the electorate than Blair did in 2001.

    Which shows how irrelevant the "proportion of the electorate" stat actually is.
    2005, surely (not 2001?)
    In 2005, Blair had the support of 21.6% of the electorate.
    In 2001, he had 24.2%

    In 2010, Cameron had the support of 23.5% of the electorate (The Lib Dems had a further 15.0%).
    In 2015, he had the support of 24.4% of them.
    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    We will still have a democracy - the HoC remains the place which decides on laws. There's no reason why the revising chamber needs to be elected, and plenty of reasons why it should not.

    Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?
    Interesting stat (probably been posted before, but...): In 2015, Cameron received a greater mandate from the electorate than Blair did in 2001.

    Which shows how irrelevant the "proportion of the electorate" stat actually is.
    2005, surely (not 2001?)
    2001 = 40.7% x 59.4% = 24.2%
    2005 = 35.2% x 61.4% = 21.6%

    2015 (for Cam) = 36.9% x 66.1% = 24.4%
    OMG I stand corrected, I didn't account for low turnout in '01...
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mr. G, if Scotland becomes independent, is it SNP policy to have its own F1 circuit? :p

    It is too cold !
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    malcolmg said:

    antifrank said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    Self-employed people, while less well-paid than employees, are happier on average in their work than employed people and the RSA believes that most of the recent surge in self-employment happened because people preferred being their own boss rather than as a way to avoid unemployment:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93e651ba-e5bd-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ph6g7BqZ
    If you believe that you are not the full shilling. It gets them more than they would on JSA as they can get more benefits, so anyone would change to self employed if they cannot get a job. Tories love it as they can claim UK is booming.
    The bank of england claim otherwise:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3b015100-c805-11e4-9226-00144feab7de.html
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    malcolmg said:

    antifrank said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    Self-employed people, while less well-paid than employees, are happier on average in their work than employed people and the RSA believes that most of the recent surge in self-employment happened because people preferred being their own boss rather than as a way to avoid unemployment:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93e651ba-e5bd-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ph6g7BqZ
    If you believe that you are not the full shilling. It gets them more than they would on JSA as they can get more benefits, so anyone would change to self employed if they cannot get a job. Tories love it as they can claim UK is booming.
    I'd expect a Scots Nat to prefer truthiness to a well-sourced independently researched article.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. G, if Scotland becomes independent, is it SNP policy to have its own F1 circuit? :p

    Knockhill
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    taffys said:

    One unfortunate thing about the impending climbdown on tax credit cuts is that it will convince the collection of wealthy great and the good people who stymied it that they matter. Not the electorate who voted in a tory government. No. What were the voters thinking?

    Most of us didn’t want a Tory government.
    But even more of us didn't want a Labour or LibDem government :lol:
    Sadly true.
    It's neither sad or otherwise it's the system we have - I'm sure you never complain when you win by it. Get a life.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    To be very political , I do not want the Tories to back down too much ! People should feel what Tory policies are like.
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    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Apart even delaying the Tax Credits bill is "unconstitutional". WTF do we have that place ?

    I would indeed like Cameron to create a 100 peers and the Queen to assent to that !

    World average for all bicameral parliaments = Upper House 44% the size of Lower House.
    A gradual solution could be [ a typical British one ] to elect, say , 100 Upper House members every 4 years on PR basis until we reach 300 members and the current voting Lords remain in situ until they die or resign. No further appointments.
    300 is still far too many. We could get by quite happily with half that.

    A rolling method of introduction / removal of existing peers, on the other hand, has a great deal to commend it. Personally, I'd go for elections for one-third of the House every three years (i.e. a nine-year term), but removing existing peers by natural wastage (perhaps with an 18-year limit), would be sensible.
    I would go along with that ! But 300 isn't far too many considering we do not have two tiers [ Senate and Assemblies ] in every county. Not even Scotland and Wales.

    Existing appointed peers will have to resign at the time of the first election when they are older than 75. They can get elected , of course.
    44% of 650 = 286
    (Or if you prefer, 44% of 600 = 264)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067

    Mr. G, if Scotland becomes independent, is it SNP policy to have its own F1 circuit? :p

    Nice thought MD, we could use Edinburgh and do a Monaco
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    edited October 2015
    Mr. Surbiton, they go to Canada and Russia already.

    Mr. P, hmm. Unfamiliar with that. Had a quick glance at a diagram, but not sure. Better than a street circuit, though.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. G, maybe. The castle looks great but street circuits are not my favourite type.

    Someone's got to think of the important things ;)
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    surbiton said:

    To be very political , I do not want the Tories to back down too much ! People should feel what Tory policies are like.

    "Lefties 4 Tax Credit Cuts" :lol:
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    I'm getting the feeling that a slight reversal may be coming our way. Probably a more gradual introduction of the same policy?

    spelt UUUUUUUUUU turn
    There's nothing worse than making a mistake and then not willing to change it. Some on the left of British politics might be taking heart about what they see as a change of minds amongst Tories for tax credits. This is not the case, the change is merely a technocratic one of phasing in the decision, rather than all in one go.

    The government seem to understand that businesses need time to phase in and adjust to the national living wage, to adjust their staffing, pricing and how they manage their business, but they seem to not appreciate that people need time to adjust themselves as well.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Mr. Notme, to quote Grand Admiral Thrawn:
    Do you know the difference between an error and a mistake?

    An error is when you do something wrong. A mistake is when you fail to correct it.
  • Options

    Mr. Surbiton, they go to Canada and Russia already.

    Mr. P, hmm. Unfamiliar with that. Had a quick glance at a diagram, but not sure. Better than a street circuit, though.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. G, maybe. The castle looks great but street circuits are not my favourite type.

    Someone's got to think of the important things ;)

    Isle of Man Grand Prix?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    antifrank said:

    malcolmg said:

    antifrank said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    Self-employed people, while less well-paid than employees, are happier on average in their work than employed people and the RSA believes that most of the recent surge in self-employment happened because people preferred being their own boss rather than as a way to avoid unemployment:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93e651ba-e5bd-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ph6g7BqZ
    If you believe that you are not the full shilling. It gets them more than they would on JSA as they can get more benefits, so anyone would change to self employed if they cannot get a job. Tories love it as they can claim UK is booming.
    I'd expect a Scots Nat to prefer truthiness to a well-sourced independently researched article.

    I am very dubious, most of them earning that type of cash are not budding entrepreneurs, it gets them the best bang for the buck I would bet. I doubt we suddenly had hundreds of thousands thinking they would start their own business.
    Call me cynical but maybe just coincidental it links up with tax credits and other benefits.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    Nice thought MD, we could use Edinburgh and do a Monaco

    There is a video game with that option, although it requires you to drive the wrong way along some one-way sections...
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    notme said:

    malcolmg said:

    antifrank said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    Self-employed people, while less well-paid than employees, are happier on average in their work than employed people and the RSA believes that most of the recent surge in self-employment happened because people preferred being their own boss rather than as a way to avoid unemployment:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93e651ba-e5bd-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ph6g7BqZ
    If you believe that you are not the full shilling. It gets them more than they would on JSA as they can get more benefits, so anyone would change to self employed if they cannot get a job. Tories love it as they can claim UK is booming.
    The bank of england claim otherwise:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3b015100-c805-11e4-9226-00144feab7de.html
    You mean the establishment lapdogs
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    felix said:

    It's neither sad or otherwise it's the system we have

    The thing is that it is true of ALL political systems. Under PR systems, you almost never get a government which more than 50% of people want either. How could you, when they want lots of different, and mutually contradictory, things? What you get is whatever stitch-up can be cobbled together after the election - often one which no-one knew they might be voting for.

    Of course the 2010-2015 UK government was the one with the biggest 'mandate' of recent times. Having tried a coalition, voters seem to have decided that they don't like the idea after all.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Is that Guardianista attempting to sabotage something they secretly don't approve of?

    chestnut said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


    I thought this was the most insightful line of that article:

    "I now wish I’d worked the minimum and joined the queue for a council house instead"

    This is the one completely unreformed part of our welfare system. If you are poor enough, at one point in time, you get a house with below market rent for life, and your kids likely get it after you too. It's a terrible system of incentives, and isn't incorporated into the calculations for the universal credit.

    The very minimum we need to do is to charge market rents for council houses. Poor people should be subsidised equally whether they rent privately or from the local authority. If we need to put up benefits slightly to make up for it, then so be it.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819
    One important factor for the Government (and apologies if it's been discussed to death; I've missed quite a bit of discussion) is the importance of picking your battles.

    Regardless of the actual right and wrongs, this has gathered a lot of political baggage. Is it important enough for the Government to expend a considerable chunk of political capital on it (capital that, by definition, will not be available to expend elsewhere?)

    If it is not, then the primary consideration should be how to extricate ones forces without fighting that battle and without losing any other political capital (such as being seen to make a U-turn). The obvious thing to do would be to introduce a change, threshold, or phasing to it ("which we were always going to do after we finished an analysis to see the best way to mitigate any pain to HardWorkingFamilies (tm)") and taking any residual hit (it is, after all, still early in their term).

    If it is deemed as being that important, then they should continue. But they should do so with eyes wide open as to the potential hit they'll incur.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The best thing about FPTP is that it gives voters an opportunity to clear out an entire political cabal in one go, whereas with PR you can often have the same tired old faces turning up in coalitions for years on end with seemingly no way to get rid of them.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @PClipp


    'Well, Mr Jessop, if we are going to have one chamber which decides the laws, ought we not to make sure we have an electoral system that does not allow a party to take a majority and claim a mandate when it cannot get the support of even 25% of the registered electors?'


    Did you miss the referendum 5 years ago when changing the voting system was massively rejected by the electorate ?.

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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819

    felix said:

    It's neither sad or otherwise it's the system we have

    The thing is that it is true of ALL political systems. Under PR systems, you almost never get a government which more than 50% of people want either. How could you, when they want lots of different, and mutually contradictory, things? What you get is whatever stitch-up can be cobbled together after the election - often one which no-one knew they might be voting for.

    Of course the 2010-2015 UK government was the one with the biggest 'mandate' of recent times. Having tried a coalition, voters seem to have decided that they don't like the idea after all.
    Ironically, and probably saying something uncomplimentary about me, it converted me from being hostile to coalitions to in favour of them :)

    (I do also recall at the time of the election (anecdote alert) hearing quite a few people saying they wanted a continuation of the Coalition. Most of these voted Tory, they later told me, and many of those explained that it was due to the SNP message. Which, if it's remotely reflected across the rest of the electorate, means that whoever came up with the "SNP threat" message in the Conservative campaign should have been paid far more than whatever he or she actually was paid!)
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    malcolmg said:

    Mr. G, if Scotland becomes independent, is it SNP policy to have its own F1 circuit? :p

    Nice thought MD, we could use Edinburgh and do a Monaco
    I'm not sure F1 cars would cope very well with tram lines. Especially if the trams are running. ;)
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,335

    Is that Guardianista attempting to sabotage something they secretly don't approve of?

    chestnut said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


    I don't understand how a full-time teacher will end up on less than a newly qualified one. Do new recruits get extra money these days?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    malcolmg said:

    antifrank said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, it's not legitimate to pronounce yourself a self-employed musician (or writer...) then hold out your hand and demand taxpayers' money is given to you.

    I kind of agree - but this is what us lefties have been arguing to the Tories for years. The "real" jobs market has NEVER recovered from the government slashing the number of public-sector jobs, and the only reason the unemployment statistics have recovered on paper is because of the huge spike in self-employed people who are topped up by tax credits.
    Self-employed people, while less well-paid than employees, are happier on average in their work than employed people and the RSA believes that most of the recent surge in self-employment happened because people preferred being their own boss rather than as a way to avoid unemployment:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93e651ba-e5bd-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ph6g7BqZ
    If you believe that you are not the full shilling. It gets them more than they would on JSA as they can get more benefits, so anyone would change to self employed if they cannot get a job. Tories love it as they can claim UK is booming.
    I know many in my acquaintance who have gone self employed to escape the drudgery of being a wage slave. It's been a choice they've made, not a matter of having to, usually leaving the public sector's stairway to hell, running as fast as they could with their pay offs and pensions.

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    JEO said:

    If you are poor enough, at one point in time, you get a house with below market rent for life, and your kids likely get it after you too.

    JEO - agree with the rest of what you say - but on this particular point I know it's not necessarily the case. I know of a family living with a grandparent in their council house who were forced to leave when the grandparent died. That said, both parents work full time so that might have contributed to the council's lack of compassion. My parents bought their council house and I am grateful that they did.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    notme said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    I'm getting the feeling that a slight reversal may be coming our way. Probably a more gradual introduction of the same policy?

    spelt UUUUUUUUUU turn
    There's nothing worse than making a mistake and then not willing to change it. Some on the left of British politics might be taking heart about what they see as a change of minds amongst Tories for tax credits. This is not the case, the change is merely a technocratic one of phasing in the decision, rather than all in one go.

    The government seem to understand that businesses need time to phase in and adjust to the national living wage, to adjust their staffing, pricing and how they manage their business, but they seem to not appreciate that people need time to adjust themselves as well.
    That is because they never consider people when they are doing it , they look to how they can benefit and hang the impact on ordinary people. They are so out of touch with reality that they probably think it is just a bottle of Bolly a week so no big issue. None of them ever have to consider payment of bills or wondering iof they can buy something , heat their homes etc.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    surbiton said:

    To be very political , I do not want the Tories to back down too much ! People should feel what Tory policies are like.

    I should hope so too. If they vote for £12bn of welfare cuts that is what they should get.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    felix said:

    It's neither sad or otherwise it's the system we have

    The thing is that it is true of ALL political systems. Under PR systems, you almost never get a government which more than 50% of people want either. How could you, when they want lots of different, and mutually contradictory, things? What you get is whatever stitch-up can be cobbled together after the election - often one which no-one knew they might be voting for.

    Of course the 2010-2015 UK government was the one with the biggest 'mandate' of recent times. Having tried a coalition, voters seem to have decided that they don't like the idea after all.
    Ironically, and probably saying something uncomplimentary about me, it converted me from being hostile to coalitions to in favour of them :)

    (I do also recall at the time of the election (anecdote alert) hearing quite a few people saying they wanted a continuation of the Coalition. Most of these voted Tory, they later told me, and many of those explained that it was due to the SNP message. Which, if it's remotely reflected across the rest of the electorate, means that whoever came up with the "SNP threat" message in the Conservative campaign should have been paid far more than whatever he or she actually was paid!)
    The problem for Labour is that it is a threat that will continue to exist as long as the SNP win most seats in Scotland.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyone wanting the mirror of pb should look on twitter at #taxcredits
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    Is that Guardianista attempting to sabotage something they secretly don't approve of?

    chestnut said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/26/tax-credits-cuts-those-set-to-be-hit

    The Guardian puts up it's badly hit tax credit recipients.

    The man who chooses to travel to Mile End from Norwich to do his PhD in History; the self employed musician who feels he's undervalued; the full-time teacher who claims she will see her wages fall below those of a newly qualified teacher though it isn't clear how; the copywriter who could quite easily claim as his wife's carer; the woman who used tax credits to get a mortgage......

    Wow.

    Tax credits subsidising PhDs, mortgages, lifestyle occupations.


    I don't understand how a full-time teacher will end up on less than a newly qualified one. Do new recruits get extra money these days?
    another of the comments following the article essentially said: I'm a teacher this can't be true.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108


    It's worth remembering that even the SNP were forced to back-track on their anti-monarchy position. Even in Scotland the monarchy is extremely popular. Amongst Labour target voters in English marginals, even more so.

    The monarchy is far from "extremely popular". Retention is supported by around 60% but that benefits greatly from small c conservative attitudes not to change things and from the utter lack of proper national debate.

    For the SNP it is simply not a fight worth considering. Independence is the goal, anything else can wait. I have little doubt that the monarchy has less than 20 years left in Scotland.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,146

    Average Tory lead

    Since Jezza's investiture (11 polls) = 7%
    Before Jezza's leadership victory, and after the GE (14 polls) = 9%

    Tory lead at general election 7% so zero change and Corbyn has made no net gains. Comres which was far more accurate than Ipsos Mori at the election of course gives a Tory lead of 13% in its latest poll
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