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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone poll
Farage up from -5% to +8% in latest Ipsos satisfaction ratings. pic.twitter.com/ZngyB8DhRt
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History is certainly repeating itself. First the clergy come out against Tory cruelty then the House of Lords have had enough...next we'll hear whispers that the Queen is unhappy....
The outcome last time was a legacy that still survives...... It survived Iraq and even the worst recession of all time. The Tories since the 80's have been the 'nasty party' and the country only vote them in when they're desperate. All Labour have to do is wait......
"Rami Ktifan made a snap decision to come out. A fellow Syrian had spotted a rainbow flag lying near the 23-year-old university student’s belongings inside a packed refugee center. The curious man, Ktifan recalled, picked it up before casually asking, “What is this?”
“I decided to tell the truth, that it is the flag for gay people like me,” Ktifan said. “I thought, I am in Europe now. In Germany, I should not have to hide anymore.”
What followed over the next several weeks, though, was abuse — both verbal and physical — from other refugees, including an attempt to burn Ktifan’s feet in the middle of the night. The harassment ultimately became so severe that he and two other openly gay asylum seekers were removed from the refugee center with the aid of a local gay activist group and placed in separate accommodations across town."
Wonderful. As Germans I know have said, they are leaving their shithole countries and turning the countries they are entering in to the same kind of shit holes.
Shame people don't vote for UKIP when it actually matters isn't it?
He was on the Daily Politics last Thursday, QT on the same night, as well as being on Sunday Politics and This Week in the last month.
Also he has been touring the country doing LEAVE meetings, so his public profile has rarely been higher
Wonderful election strategy.
Only a fool (or Angela Merkel) would suppose that because someone has magically crossed a border they shed their previous views and become "German" or "French" or whatever. This takes time, effort - on both sides - and, above all, a willingness to change on the part of the immigrant/asylum seeker/refugee.
If so, why?
(This isn't a UKIP thing; it's a how-the-heck-can-we-trust-pollsters thing)
So well before those appearances.
5 Tory wins
1 Tory-led coalition
3 wins by a Labour leader most of their membership now regards as a Tory.
Long wait.
Con and Lab tied when all giving a VI are considered.
I know you didn't vote for him, and I am not criticising you personally. But I think you as a party have made the whole country pretty desperate to ensure Labour do not hold office for the foreseeable future.
I didn't think UKIP had lost half their voters since the election.
We're back to a more realistic UKIP figure.
No-one doubts polling is difficult. Perhaps it is too difficult for the pollsters that we have.
I was thinking more of the reasons behind the big rise in Farage's own ratings, which I think were around 30% in May.
Ydoethur, migrant crisis and referendum.
"I admire your optimism Roger. Don't you think however that a party led by Jeremy Corbyn, a man linked admittedly in some cases rather tenuously with unabashed support for the IRA, the Islington paedophile scandal, Holocaust denial, threats to rape female opponents and Tom Watson is going to struggle somewhat to portray its opponents as 'the nasty party'?"
"......threats to rape female opponents" That's a new one! Are we talking Theresa May or one of the more nubile Tory spokewomen?
"I doubt that the Chancellor realised any of this when he set out to reform tax credits. I suspect he is having one of his omnishambles moments, when the implications of his proposals are evident only after their publication. He kept this a secret during the campaign, and is now paying the price – because it meant very little proper analysis has been done. As Osborne found out during the Omnishambles Budget, the Treasury isn’t very good at working out unintended consequences of its actions.
In tearing tax credits away from people – rather than phasing them out, which is the obvious thing to do – Osborne now risks inflicting grave damage to his party’s reputation. Doing it his way will save just £3.5 billion, not much for a government that spends north of £600 billion. There are many, many other ways to find this saving. Economically, it is just not necessary. Politically, this could be an epic act of self-harm."
I was thinking of those Labour supporting activists at Manchester that Corbyn said were doing a fine job, and who shouted at female Tories that they would be raped come the revolution.
I do not think any actual member of the Labour party would say that, because in my experience with a few dishonourable exceptions they are decent and sensible people. But the fact is, they said those things and the Labour leader praised them for being there. In the public mind, there is a link. And it's not a pretty one.
In the last parliament they first went to labour, with Corbyn in charge they'll bypass Labour
And of course, in the end it proved wrong politically - it caused chaos in the Labour party and wrecked Brown's lingering reputation for competence and fairness.
Oh and channeled via Oman... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4596596.ece
It probably got more ratings than any of the politics shows, tbf.
If he's declaring it in Northern Cyprus or something, that would be different.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34528448
We have also seen that groups have been complained about the jobs they've been offered, their location being too remote, their housing quality etc. No doubt a large group of them will be fed up with Germany not being the promised land and start looking for somewhere new when they get EU citizenship.
I think there is quite enough in what Corbyn has said and done to criticise him for - and quite severely, without over-egging it in the way NPXMP has described. Personally I couldn't care less about his dress and other trivia, though it bothers others. But a leader of a party should be alert to the fact that supporters or so-called supporters may, by their words/actions, sully the reputation of the party they claim to support. All parties can have this problem. It is not going to help Labour if they are seen - by those who just see a few minutes on the news (and however unfair it may be) - as the party of yobbos shouting abuse at women.
Perceptions matter in politics - as Osborne may be about to find out.
Since Jezza's investiture (11 polls) = 7%
Before Jezza's leadership victory, and after the GE (14 polls) = 9%
Given the news flow, with columns of refugees heading for the west, UKIP should really be doing better in the polls and the locals.
Its a conundrum.
Have a good afternoon.
40% of the unweighted sample are public sector workers.
Lab 35 Con 31 - among part time workers and the unemployed- i.e most likely tax credits claimants and minimum wage beneficaries..
Just for fun - Scotland Subsample - SNP 51 Con 30 Lab 12 Grn 3 LD 2
In the area I Live,never seen nothing like it the mass immigration of low skilled poor migration,all this under Cameron's governments.
It's called 'trying to have your cake and eat it', is it not? I'm not suggesting Farage would be in charge, I'm asking him to be honest about which of the above two contradictory positions he personally is taking.
I would indeed like Cameron to create a 100 peers and the Queen to assent to that !
Personally, as a potential "Out" voter, I wouldn't want to stay in the EEA: from what I know of how that would work, it would keep most of what I consider to be the disadvantages of the EU, without any of the advantages.
"Tax credit recipients will start to lose out as soon as their household earns just £3,850. So many affected by tax credit cuts do not pay National Insurance in the first place. For some context it’s worth noting that 43 per cent of households receiving tax credits had earnings of below £10,000. And the winners would include those on higher incomes – including higher and additional rate payers – but exclude everyone over the state pension age because they do not pay NI anyway. The latter fact might be a good thing from fairness perspective, but is not when looking at a straight question of tax credit compensation."
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I didn't realise 43% earned less than £10k. So, even if they worked, changes to tax thresholds will mean nothing to them.
had six children
Are there no "single fathers?" This is Harriet Harman's real legacy.
I heard "lefty" Tom Swarbrick on LBC, ask if this is the return of the "nasty party?" This lazy soundbite is so bloody predictable but once again shows how poor the tories are at PR.
(Just for rcs ;-))
Pipes done, apparently. Will try to get the post-race piece done before the evening arrives...
- W. Churchill.
I'm loving the way the tories' deadliest enemies are suggesting ways they can avoid becoming unpopular.
I haven't heard them be explicit about that though. What I'd really like from the Leave campaign is a clear picture of what Brexit could look like: what sort of trade agreements, how could money be reassigned, what regulations could be removed and which ones should be replaced at the UK level, what a skills-based immigration policy could look like. It would be good to have one consolidated picture so a future is presented with trade-offs accepted. I know that wouldn't be the only future available, but it would be nice to see one coherent idea of what it could look like.
I've got a whole bunch more if people want them, but those really do involve some level of time, effort and risk. So I'm not going to bother anyone here with them.
Of the other 42%, how many do you think are not dissatisfied because they want him as PM, rather than being not dissatisfied because they are delighted with Labour's crappy choice?
Latest provisional statistics:
Unemployed: 1,289,000
0.0 -£6420: 753,900
6420-9999: 650,600
That's roughly 2.7m of the 4.5m claims.
£10k-20k: 1,132,000
There are hardly any households on £20,000 a year or more who get working tax credit, but quite a lot do get child tax credit.
The structural issue is that there are a substantial number of people that are just hitting the 16 hour threshold. Around 55% (573,000) of lone parent tax credit claims are just above the 16 hour threshold. If extra childcare enables them to take extra hours, then they gain considerably.
Just over 1.6m tax credit households have a full time worker in it.
Of the 1.672m households with a main worker, 972,000 have another adult in the home who is not working.
The current situation enables one person in a two adult family to work 16 hours, while the other stays at home, and they will be entitled to get maximum uncapped benefits without paying any tax or NI, and with a preferable taper rate up to £120 compared to someone who was working 15 hours or less.
A rolling method of introduction / removal of existing peers, on the other hand, has a great deal to commend it. Personally, I'd go for elections for one-third of the House every three years (i.e. a nine-year term), but removing existing peers by natural wastage (perhaps with an 18-year limit), would be sensible.
The Diadochi would be a better example. If Alexander had had a single clear successor (or if Craterus hadn't been sent west shortly before the King's death) then when the Romans headed east, they might've bitten off more than they could chew.