politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB gets to within 4% with ICM equalling the party

Corbyn for first

It will be calming Tory nerves.

I would say this poll is all a bit smoke and mirrors. On face value, looks great. However, when you see that's he's mopping up green votes rather than where he needs them, and the Scottish sub sample (yes, only a sub small, I know) it's all a bit predictable really. Miles out from a GE election too. Tories will be happy they are hitting 38%, with potential scope to go higher.

Meanwhile..the labour plp shouting corbyn down in their meeting. Wonderful.

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

Meaningless poll.

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

Quite a lot of today's MPs would be perfectly happy in that world

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

UKpollingreport goes with

"while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not yet appear to be doing Labour’s voting intention figures any harm."

Music to my ears

As for the prediction - using the same website, it was the end of the year when Labour went ahead in 2010, whereupon it stayed neck and neck for a year and then OMNISHAMBLES

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

I reckon, you'll have leads before the year is out, and consistent leads in 2017.

It will not matter one jot.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ICM poll in October 2010 post conference had Con 38 and Lab 34.

So Corbyn's doing as well as Miliband.

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2010_oct_st_conferences_poll.pdf

Problem is that ICM has changed their methodology as most pollsters after the GE.
Although not much change was my prediction, as I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate.

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

BannedInParis said:

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

UKpollingreport goes with

"while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not yet appear to be doing Labour’s voting intention figures any harm."

Music to my ears

As for the prediction - using the same website, it was the end of the year when Labour went ahead in 2010, whereupon it stayed neck and neck for a year and then OMNISHAMBLES

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

I reckon, you'll have leads before the year is out, and consistent leads in 2017.

It will not matter one jot.

Nope, no leads until the economy sours is my bet.
I'm sticking with my summer prediction of not much change.

Very similar conclusion by Open Europe:


http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150507-Open-Europe-What-If-Report-Final-Digital-Copy.pdf

JCICIPM.

More seriously, when Mrs Capitano was casting her Labour leadership vote and we were chatting about the contenders, I opined that I didn't have a strong view on the leadership but that Tom Watson would be a disastrous liability as deputy. I'm just surprised how quickly that has come true.

I wonder what odds on Watson going before Corbyn.

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

It is what Britain needs, you're my first choice, Anna Soubry is my second choice.

(And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

Tax credit cuts + brutal winter for the NHS = Labour lead by end of January, I think.

Don't get started with the 24 hours to save the NHS stuff again!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Any plans for the Department of Culture?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

It is what Britain needs, you're my first choice, Anna Soubry is my second choice.

(And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)

Thank you.

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Having looked at the link someone posted, Labour leads weren't as frequent by this point as I thought, although there had been a handful.

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

Exactly.

That's the main reason they are finished.

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

It's not physical cash, it is cheque/BACS/CHAPS payments etc, IE a transfer of funds.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

It's not physical cash, it is cheque/BACS/CHAPS payments etc, IE a transfer of funds.

For a moment I was thinking about Casinos when I saw the cash under the Donation type.

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.

Tonight I am mostly going to have a night off from work, politics and general concerns and distractions by watching Pokey Lafarge at the Union Chapel in North London. Anyone who likes US roots music I can very strongly recommend him.

DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS... EVEN THE GOLD STANDARD> THEY STILL HAVE NO ANSWER WHY THEY GOT IT WRONG LAST TIME>

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

What do they have authority to vote for?
Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?

richardDodd said:

Luckyguy1983...Yes of course you would.. it is the usual stupid persons cover.

I'll defer to your superior knowledge of the condition.

Can us three quidders hire and fire Labour MPs or is that reserved for full members ?

Moses_ said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?

PB Tories are known for the eccentricity.

surbiton said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

What do they have authority to vote for?
Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?

There was a clear vote against bombing at the Party conference just concluded. You will argue no doubt that they can vote for whatever they like.

Fair enough. I can also choose to de-select whomever I like.

I side with the (Edmund Burke?) view of an MP.
Is there a link for what else conference voted on?

Moses_ said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?

I thought the electoral commission made a discrimination between cash and checks or other bank transfers, for a moment I thought about a briefcase full of 50 pound notes.

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

£20m of the Liberals money came from the public purse.

They will not see that again.

Moses_ said:

Breaking

Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

BBC news

5 more years to go for Assange to be a free man.

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.

Other pollsters have Labour lower

In October ?

This ICM is the first taken completely since Corbyn became leader

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

You are a good example of the rising hysteria on here.
France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
Do grow up.
Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti

surbiton said:

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

The only good news I have heard is that the Labour Party MPs will not vote for bombing unless there is a UNSC resolution - which, of course, will not come. So any bombing will be illegal in international law. Of course, you can't tell about the Blairite rump.

You are right. If one British fighter gets shot down by a SAM, there will be hell to pay. God forbid, if the pilot is taken prisoner by those IS nutters.

In a case of a RAF jet getting shot down the pilot, if he survives, will be a prisoner of the russians. It will create a severe military and diplomatic incident, including public humiliation by the russians and fears of a real war between Britain and Russia.
The sanity of the PM will be in question, risking a big war just to create a headache for Corbyn is just nuts.

Moses_ said:

Breaking

Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

BBC news

In the words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!"

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

(And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)

Oi! Hands off! That's my turf