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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB gets to within 4% with ICM equalling the party

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062

    justin124 said:

    So if ICM had not made any adjustments post-May 2015 this poll would be showing a 2% Tory lead.

    And at the election they had Labour ahead.

    It is almost like you are forgetting the polling disaster of May 2015
    Indeed, ICM's final May poll had Labour on 35% the Tories on 34%, disastrously out so of course they had to make adjustments!!
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Did anyone see Ch4 news?

    @iainmartin1: Tonight: Labour total shambles on deficit. Watson being taken apart by forensic @jonsnowC4 on other matters. Ed Miliband was a giant.

    @iainmartin1: Watson is going to have to resign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    In 1975 following Thatcher's election as leader Labour often led in the polls!
    Thatcher had a six point lead with Gallup 3 months after becoming leader
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1974-1979

    Attlee was Labour's Thatcher, Corbyn is Labour's IDS
    But in other polls in 1975 Labour led the Tories.
    A couple, a couple of others the Tories led, you are celebrating a 4 point Corbyn deficit, he has not yet led in one single poll!!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015

    justin124 said:

    So if ICM had not made any adjustments post-May 2015 this poll would be showing a 2% Tory lead.

    And at the election they had Labour ahead.

    It is almost like you are forgetting the polling disaster of May 2015
    I thought the comparison was October 2010.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    In 1975 following Thatcher's election as leader Labour often led in the polls!
    Thatcher had a six point lead with Gallup 3 months after becoming leader
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1974-1979

    Attlee was Labour's Thatcher, Corbyn is Labour's IDS
    But in other polls in 1975 Labour led the Tories.
    A couple, a couple of others the Tories led, you are celebrating a 4 point Corbyn deficit, he has not yet led in one single poll!!
    I am not celebrating anything - simply engaging in psephological analysis.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2015
    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    I suspect, increasingly, that Labour MPs will find some way to remove Corbyn and McDonnell in the next 18 months. They will change the rules. They will cheat. They will tell the membership to go jump.

    The membership will eat the MP's alive if they somehow manage to overthrow Corbyn, thanks to the boundary changes and the reduction of the number of MP's:

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/09/how-labours-left-can-push-out-centrist-mps-without-mandatory-reselection/
    Dard
    the Leader.
    You are wrong there as Labour officials have said that it does and they, not Corbyn, interpret the rules
    T challenge himself.
    at
    Nope the rules ( specifically Chapter 4, Clause II, rule 2 B ii.) are clear there can only be nominations to challenge Corbyn, his opponents will have to be nominated to challenge him not Corbyn.

    Here it is again, it's in english: “Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of party conference. In this case nominations must be supported by 20% of the Commons members of the PLP”

    Corbyn does not need to be nominated, his challengers need to, unnamed Labour officials or not the rules are in english and clear.
    The first sentence says challenger
    Nominations are required to challenge the leader, if there is a challenge Corbyn does not require to b

    The only thing we know about those unnamed Labour officials is that they don't know english.
    There is nothing that precludes a challenged incumbent from also being required to get 20% of MPs to nominate him in that Clause and Peter Mandelson certainly will do so!
    It's a nomination to challenge the man who is already Leader, the Leader is not required to challenge himself for the leadership.
    The rules specifically say that the challengers need to be nominated, Corbyn is not a challenger thus he doesn't need to be nominated to challenge himself because he is already leader.
    It's a leadership challenge not a leadership election.

    There is a requirement for a challenger to get nominations from 20% of MPs, once he has done so there is nothing that says the leader does not also have to get 20%. It is a leadership challenge which then brings about a leadership election if successful
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited October 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Scott_P said:

    Did anyone see Ch4 news?

    @iainmartin1: Tonight: Labour total shambles on deficit. Watson being taken apart by forensic @jonsnowC4 on other matters. Ed Miliband was a giant.

    @iainmartin1: Watson is going to have to resign.

    Watson won't - and that is fine. A damaged Watson is a good thing for everyone else.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,996
    edited October 2015
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    Which film was that?

    'Cause you might be thinking about Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    Which film was that?

    'Cause you might be thinking about Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law?
    A Bridge Too Far. I don't think I've ever thought about Campbell's father in law ;)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    notme said:
    He is odious and shameless. He looks like Jabba the Warehouse.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    notme said:
    Good to have his interference out in the open now.

    He couldn't even be bothered to spelled Brittan correctly... though that is nothing compared to the manipulative and smearing tone in his letter. Not acceptable from anyone who seeks to be a serious politician
  • Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    Which film was that?

    'Cause you might be thinking about Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law?
    A Bridge Too Far. I don't think I've ever thought about Campbell's father in law ;)
    Yeah it was Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited October 2015

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    Which film was that?

    'Cause you might be thinking about Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law?
    A Bridge Too Far. I don't think I've ever thought about Campbell's father in law ;)
    Yeah it was Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law.
    In that case I shall post many spoilers about last night's Walking Dead premiere, which was pedestrian at best, but obviously had a huge budget increase.

    Now I'm really pissed off because you are right. ;)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited October 2015
    FPT
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just watched Goldeneye..20 year old Bond movie...absolutely brilliant

    It was the first Bond movie for 6 years since 1989's Licence To Kill.
    Was it really 20 years ago?

    F*** that makes me feel old!
    I think I commented on here last time it was on ... you can tell how old GoldenEye was from the backstory. Trevelyan, who is apparently of a similar age to Bond, has a secret grudge against the UK after the cruel betrayal of Cossack prisoners by the British army at the end of WW2 - repatriated to the USSR and Stalin's tender mercies.

    In the film, Trevelyan is still burning up about this stuff because these victims of British treachery included his parents. That really ages the film. These days if a youngish villain were secretly angry about the way their parents were killed, it would have to be against the backdrop to a whole new generation of conflicts - someone angry about the British role in Kuwait or Bosnia, or their beloved Malvinas perhaps. You'd have to be really pushing things to even make it about Biafra or the British failure to sort out Cyprus in 1960.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Tim_B said:
    It really is in all our interests that the Conservatives do not mess up and let these people in. Wilson, Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Smith, Blair, Brown and Miliband. Even the latter seems like a political giant you could trust compared to them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    isam said:
    You tend to find, with the exception of the obvious death penalty and stoning of women, you dont get much sympathy from people when you go to a foreign place and get punished for breaking their laws.

    When in Rome etc applies as much abroad as it does here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    In 1975 following Thatcher's election as leader Labour often led in the polls!
    Thatcher had a six point lead with Gallup 3 months after becoming leader
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1974-1979

    Attlee was Labour's Thatcher, Corbyn is Labour's IDS
    But in other polls in 1975 Labour led the Tories.
    A couple, a couple of others the Tories led, you are celebrating a 4 point Corbyn deficit, he has not yet led in one single poll!!
    I am not celebrating anything - simply engaging in psephological analysis.
    Indeed but until he gets consistent poll leads nothing much has changed
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

    Asking a question is not skewering. Skewering requires making a real impact - and his technique won't achieve anything close to that.

    And he is crowd-sourcing this week - the tweets have been sent out requesting them.

    Corbyn might ask a question - but he won't achieve anything with it.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    Which film was that?

    'Cause you might be thinking about Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law?
    A Bridge Too Far. I don't think I've ever thought about Campbell's father in law ;)
    Yeah it was Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law.
    In that case I shall post many spoilers about last night's Walking Dead premiere, which was pedestrian at best, but obviously had a huge budget increase.

    Now I'm really pissed off because you are right. ;)
    I quite liked Fear the Walking Dead, i didnt know it was just a six episode mini series. Tons of plot holes, but i liked seeing it happen rather than the later aftermath.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Tim_B said:
    That was one of the most arrogant and self-serving interviews I have seen.

    Watson is an utter twunt.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

    Asking a question is not skewering. Skewering requires making a real impact - and his technique won't achieve anything close to that.

    And he is crowd-sourcing this week - the tweets have been sent out requesting them.

    Corbyn might ask a question - but he won't achieve anything with it.
    So ducking the bet, Righto
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    notme said:

    isam said:
    You tend to find, with the exception of the obvious death penalty and stoning of women, you dont get much sympathy from people when you go to a foreign place and get punished for breaking their laws.

    When in Rome etc applies as much abroad as it does here.
    Entirely agree, what sticks in the throat is that we are involved with it
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight / Allegra Stratton — Labour parliamentary party "crumbling".

    "crumbling" OMG that sounds bad in conventional politics.
    Events are occurring, not necessarily to Labour's advantage.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited October 2015

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

    Asking a question is not skewering. tweets have been sent out requesting them.

    Corbyn might ask a question - but he won't achieve anything with it.
    I dont know why not:

    John from Bradford wants to know why XYZ

    And you get in a team to go through the most likely answers from the PM and then skewer him with a pre prepared follow up, especially if he gives a predictable answer.

    Three asked questions
    Three of his own follow up questions. With a couple of spare asked questions in case the PM gives him a response he cant bat back.

    He'll get quickly good at it. Harman is a complete light weight and she managed to hold her own, after initially being very very poor. If she can improve!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    edited October 2015
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

    Asking a question is not skewering. Skewering requires making a real impact - and his technique won't achieve anything close to that.

    And he is crowd-sourcing this week - the tweets have been sent out requesting them.

    Corbyn might ask a question - but he won't achieve anything with it.
    So ducking the bet, Righto
    No.

    You made a claim that he would skewer. I said he wouldn't skewer.

    You then change position to say that he would ask a question.

    That isn't me ducking a bet, it is you changing tack halfway through a conversation
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

    Asking a question is not skewering. Skewering requires making a real impact - and his technique won't achieve anything close to that.

    And he is crowd-sourcing this week - the tweets have been sent out requesting them.

    Corbyn might ask a question - but he won't achieve anything with it.
    So ducking the bet, Righto
    No.

    You made a claim that he would skewer. I said he wouldn't skewer.

    You then change position to say that he would ask a question.

    That isn't me ducking a bet, it is you changing tack halfway through a conversation
    I didn't make a claim he would, I wondered whether he would

    You said he wouldn't bring it up because he was crowd sourcing, I said I bet £20 he does

    You don't want to back it up, fair enough

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

    Asking a question is not skewering. Skewering requires making a real impact - and his technique won't achieve anything close to that.

    And he is crowd-sourcing this week - the tweets have been sent out requesting them.

    Corbyn might ask a question - but he won't achieve anything with it.
    So ducking the bet, Righto
    No.

    You made a claim that he would skewer. I said he wouldn't skewer.

    You then change position to say that he would ask a question.

    That isn't me ducking a bet, it is you changing tack halfway through a conversation
    I didn't make a claim he would, I wondered whether he would

    You said he wouldn't bring it up because he was crowd sourcing, I said I bet £20 he does

    You don't want to back it up, fair enough

    Read it back - I never said he wouldn't ask a question on that subject. I said he wouldn't skewer Cameron on it.

    But never mind.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!




  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    In 1975 following Thatcher's election as leader Labour often led in the polls!
    Thatcher had a six point lead with Gallup 3 months after becoming leader
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1974-1979

    Attlee was Labour's Thatcher, Corbyn is Labour's IDS
    But in other polls in 1975 Labour led the Tories.
    A couple, a couple of others the Tories led, you are celebrating a 4 point Corbyn deficit, he has not yet led in one single poll!!
    I am not celebrating anything - simply engaging in psephological analysis.
    Indeed but until he gets consistent poll leads nothing much has changed
    I agree - but equally the wild expectations of many that 20% Tory leads were imminent has not been borne out and begins to seem fanciful.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The next big story seems to be the relationship our govt has w the Saudi prison regime... Wonder if Corbyn will make skewer Cam at PMQs? I reckon taking the moral high ground will be a Corbyn tactic at every opportunity

    QTWTAIN
    Why do you think that?
    Firstly because Corbyn's approach of using crowd-sourced letters and not following them up means he is never going to be able to skewer Cameron on anything

    Secondly because Corbyn's support for very distasteful groups in the Middle East means he has not moral high ground on which to stand - and Cameron will bat him away very easily as a result

    Plus I suspect Wednesday will be more Watson - the publication of the letters means that is not going away.
    I doubt Corbyn will do the crowd source every week or that he will feel the need to pull punches because of his own beliefs... He believes them! He thinks he's right

    There's a split in the cabinet between senior members, he'd be mad not to go on it

    Friendly £20 bet at EVS? You've said he won't, so must think it's odds on

    Asking a question is not skewering. Skewering requires making a real impact - and his technique won't achieve anything close to that.

    And he is crowd-sourcing this week - the tweets have been sent out requesting them.

    Corbyn might ask a question - but he won't achieve anything with it.
    So ducking the bet, Righto
    No.

    You made a claim that he would skewer. I said he wouldn't skewer.

    You then change position to say that he would ask a question.

    That isn't me ducking a bet, it is you changing tack halfway through a conversation
    I didn't make a claim he would, I wondered whether he would

    You said he wouldn't bring it up because he was crowd sourcing, I said I bet £20 he does

    You don't want to back it up, fair enough

    Read it back - I never said he wouldn't ask a question on that subject. I said he wouldn't skewer Cameron on it.

    But never mind.
    Ok well let's see
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Indeed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    In 1975 following Thatcher's election as leader Labour often led in the polls!
    Thatcher had a six point lead with Gallup 3 months after becoming leader
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1974-1979

    Attlee was Labour's Thatcher, Corbyn is Labour's IDS
    But in other polls in 1975 Labour led the Tories.
    A couple, a couple of others the Tories led, you are celebrating a 4 point Corbyn deficit, he has not yet led in one single poll!!
    I am not celebrating anything - simply engaging in psephological analysis.
    Indeed but until he gets consistent poll leads nothing much has changed
    I agree - but equally the wild expectations of many that 20% Tory leads were imminent has not been borne out and begins to seem fanciful.
    Even IDS had a few poll leads, I don't think any objective commentators believed in a 20% Tory lead
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!




    The most polarised since Thatcher v Foot anyway, though Cameron slightly less so than the Iron Lady
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!




    Your party doesn't have winners running the show.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Indeed
    They are on their way. Twice!

    You can't expect me to know the minutiae of this stuff. I make no pretense to do so. What the hell would I know of UK politicians?

    Being tickled by terrapins is great - so long as they are done before the Monday Night game ;)

    I happily admit defeat!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Indeed
    They are on their way. Twice!

    You can't expect me to know the minutiae of this stuff. I make no pretense to do so. What the hell would I know of UK politicians?

    Being tickled by terrapins is great - so long as they are done before the Monday Night game ;)

    I happily admit defeat!
    Happy to follow the advice, night
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What has the world come to that during a new Opposition Leaders honeymoon being only 4% behind is considered good news?

    You have to take into account who the new Labour leader is. To my mind 4% is extraordinary given that circumstance.
    Why? He has not shifted one net Tory voter to Labour, he has simply picked up some Greens and LDs, hardly earthshattering
    IDS even led Labour in a few 2003 polls, now that really was 'extraordinary'
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    It may have something to do with my politics but I don't think IDS is as toxic as JC nor, more debatably, as incompetent.
    IDS was taken even less seriously than Corbyn
    But IDS' father in law was portrayed by Sean Connery.
    What we have lost!
    A Bridge Too Far. Terrapins tickle me if I lie.
    Indeed
    They are on their way. Twice!

    You can't expect me to know the minutiae of this stuff. I make no pretense to do so. What the hell would I know of UK politicians?

    Being tickled by terrapins is great - so long as they are done before the Monday Night game ;)

    I happily admit defeat!
    Happy to follow the advice, night
    So you like being tickled by terrapins too. Good to know!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!

    I was going to read but not post, but I take exception that you presume my judgment is based on meaningless trivia about JC. I don't care if he does his top button up. I wouldn't care if he forgot to do up his flies. You must know that there are serious concerns about JC and his cohorts on any level you like. It is fast getting to a situation where you (and your ilk) must decide whether you are a Corbynista or a Labour supporter. I cannot tell from your post.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If this poll is correct it represents a swing of about 1.3% to Labour since the election. I think it's likely such a swing would be concentrated in the seats Labour already holds rather than the marginals.



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!




  • JICIPM!
  • HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories are also up on the general election though on 38%. Mori also had Labour on 34% in its first post Corbyn poll. Comres has reweighted since the election and has Labour unchanged on 30%. 34% is the score Kinnock got in 1992 when Major got a bigger majority than Cameron

    On a GB basis - which is what the polls give us! - Kinnock polled 35.2% in 1992.
    So Corbyn is still doing worse than Kinnock then
    Did someone say "we're alright"? Pretty sure I saw it upthread.
    Well given his family's income from politics I am sure the Kinnocks are 'alright'
    NOw, it's "We're aaaaaaall LEFT!"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Extraordinary:

    "Labour tensions boil over at fractious MPs' meeting
    Corbyn supporters and critics clash over fiscal charter U-turn and new group Momentum.

    "A total fucking shambles". That was the verdict of the usually emollient Ben Bradshaw as he left tonight's Parliamentary Labour Party meeting. His words were echoed by MPs from all wings of the party. "I've never seen anything like it," one shadow minister told me. In commitee room 14 of the House of Commons, tensions within the party - over the U-turn on George Osborne's fiscal charter and new Corbynite group Momentum - erupted."


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/10/labour-tensions-boil-over-fractious-mps-meeting
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,536
    edited October 2015

    @JosiasJessop
    Yes - your analysis of Erdogan I completely agree with. And his strategy of playing East and West off against each other. A dangerous game, but sometimes I wish our 'allies' wouldn't take our unquestioning devotion for granted so much.

    However, on the false flag, I'm very right, and it's a good example of our British 'free press' to show you. This link has a full transcript.

    (Snip)

    -all carried the story but TOTALLY avoided the entire motivation for the ban.

    And the Telegraph didn't even carry it at all. So you have the hideous irony of our press reporting on (and disaproving of) Turkish censorship, yet assisting it!

    This is why I warn that people MUST widen their reading to get the facts these days.

    There are several things about this. Firstly, if you 'completely agree' with my analysis of Erdogan, then you must agree that your earlier claims about his motivation wrt neighbouring countries was hyperbolic - he and Turkey do not want to recreate the Ottoman Empire.

    As for the leak: have you considered that (pauses to say something I don't particularly want to say): Erdogan and the government might be right? That the source recordings might have been doctored?

    If they are, there are certainly precedents. The leaked recordings need to be seen in the context of the conflict between Erdogan and Gulen. Which is quite funny, as Erdogan and Gulen together used similar tactics against the senior secular Turkish military officers wrt 'Sledgehammer'.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sledgehammer_(coup_plan)

    Note that the documents used as a basis for the convictions in Sledgehammer were eventually shown to be fake in court. But that does not matter now, as the people convicted (or even charged and earlier acquitted) have been replaced within their relevant organisations, which was to the benefit of the government. In fact, to make it more multi-dimensional and complex, the AKP might have wanted the convictions to be quashed as it would cast doubt on the evidence against them in the currently-running corruption scandal.

    Add in Ergenekon (if that shadowy organisation actually exists), and you have a hefty cocktail for intrigue and lies.The AKP has essentially neutered the military, but the Gulen organisation, Ergenekon, and others within the state are against them.

    Basically: Turkish politics is awash with scandals caused by leaked documents and recordings, some of which are probably faked, and each of which benefit and hinder one or more states-within-a-state.

    It makes McBride look positively trivial.

    Turkish politics is *way* more interesting than UK politics. If the UK was like Turkey, then Ashcroft's book would have not featured a pig, but would have had audio recordings of Cameron shagging the chief of staff in a sauna whilst discussing the overthrow of the queen, with the aim of replacing her with Jimmy Saville's reanimated corpse.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!

    I was going to read but not post, but I take exception that you presume my judgment is based on meaningless trivia about JC. I don't care if he does his top button up. I wouldn't care if he forgot to do up his flies. You must know that there are serious concerns about JC and his cohorts on any level you like. It is fast getting to a situation where you (and your ilk) must decide whether you are a Corbynista or a Labour supporter. I cannot tell from your post.
    Er....60% voted for Corbyn. I was not one of them. But he is our elected leader whether I like it or not.

    I was always against de-selections. But open talk against agreed party policy like bombing Syria cannot be accepted. De-selections have to take place to get rid of them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,536
    As yet another indication of a topsy-turvy world, Playboy's gone non-nude:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34511999
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    surbiton said:



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!

    I was going to read but not post, but I take exception that you presume my judgment is based on meaningless trivia about JC. I don't care if he does his top button up. I wouldn't care if he forgot to do up his flies. You must know that there are serious concerns about JC and his cohorts on any level you like. It is fast getting to a situation where you (and your ilk) must decide whether you are a Corbynista or a Labour supporter. I cannot tell from your post.
    Er....60% voted for Corbyn. I was not one of them. But he is our elected leader whether I like it or not.

    I was always against de-selections. But open talk against agreed party policy like bombing Syria cannot be accepted. De-selections have to take place to get rid of them.
    They will be purged. Are you just going to end up with 200 Corbyn drones, without any individuality? How dull.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!

    I was going to read but not post, but I take exception that you presume my judgment is based on meaningless trivia about JC. I don't care if he does his top button up. I wouldn't care if he forgot to do up his flies. You must know that there are serious concerns about JC and his cohorts on any level you like. It is fast getting to a situation where you (and your ilk) must decide whether you are a Corbynista or a Labour supporter. I cannot tell from your post.
    Er....60% voted for Corbyn. I was not one of them. But he is our elected leader whether I like it or not.

    I was always against de-selections. But open talk against agreed party policy like bombing Syria cannot be accepted. De-selections have to take place to get rid of them.
    They will be purged. Are you just going to end up with 200 Corbyn drones, without any individuality? How dull.
    Anybody who votes with the Tories against overwhelmingly agreed Party policy on bombing Syria is a Tory and must seek another party or stand as independent which, of course, they are perfectly entitled to do.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    As yet another indication of a topsy-turvy world, Playboy's gone non-nude:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34511999

    I will have to cancel my subscription !
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,536
    surbiton said:

    As yet another indication of a topsy-turvy world, Playboy's gone non-nude:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34511999

    I will have to cancel my subscription !
    I thought you only got it for the articles! ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,536
    It's Lovelace Day!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34359936

    (The article features a lady with what is now a rather unfortunate name)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    surbiton said:



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!

    I was going to read but not post, but I take exception that you presume my judgment is based on meaningless trivia about JC. I don't care if he does his top button up. I wouldn't care if he forgot to do up his flies. You must know that there are serious concerns about JC and his cohorts on any level you like. It is fast getting to a situation where you (and your ilk) must decide whether you are a Corbynista or a Labour supporter. I cannot tell from your post.
    Er....60% voted for Corbyn. I was not one of them. But he is our elected leader whether I like it or not.

    I was always against de-selections. But open talk against agreed party policy like bombing Syria cannot be accepted. De-selections have to take place to get rid of them.
    Go for it - you'll get no arguments from Conservatives :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:



    I stick by my post. I believe it is extraordinary that Corbyn only lags by 4% given who he is, what he says, who supports him. It is an observation with the inference that I would have expected him to lag by much more. "Extraordinary" works both ways.

    It's an honest view and deserves an honest reply. British politics is as polarised as I've ever seen it. Corbyn opponents think it literally incredible that anyone would vote for him. Corbyn supporters think he's the first leader to offer genuine hope for decades. It will take a lot to shift either group.

    I do think the anti-Corbynites made a mistake in going for an all-guns-blazing approach. There are a few things in his record which are clearly awkward, but they've been submerged in a tide of trivia - he didn't do up his top button! He went for a walking holiday instead of seeing the Queen! He doesn't make carefully-constructed speeches! He misread the autocue!

    We don't care about any of that. The effect is that the more serious criticisms simply get shrugged off, like a spouse going on and on about their partner's failings - LAST WEEK HE FORGOT TO SHUT THE FRIDGE!

    I was going to read but not post, but I take exception that you presume my judgment is based on meaningless trivia about JC. I don't care if he does his top button up. I wouldn't care if he forgot to do up his flies. You must know that there are serious concerns about JC and his cohorts on any level you like. It is fast getting to a situation where you (and your ilk) must decide whether you are a Corbynista or a Labour supporter. I cannot tell from your post.
    Er....60% voted for Corbyn. I was not one of them. But he is our elected leader whether I like it or not.

    I was always against de-selections. But open talk against agreed party policy like bombing Syria cannot be accepted. De-selections have to take place to get rid of them.
    They will be purged. Are you just going to end up with 200 Corbyn drones, without any individuality? How dull.
    Anybody who votes with the Tories against overwhelmingly agreed Party policy on bombing Syria is a Tory and must seek another party or stand as independent which, of course, they are perfectly entitled to do.
    Overwhelmingly agreed? How overwhelming is it if so many MPs may vote against it?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    surbiton said:



    Anybody who votes with the Tories against overwhelmingly agreed Party policy on bombing Syria is a Tory and must seek another party or stand as independent which, of course, they are perfectly entitled to do.

    You're more hardline than me. I see it primarily as a question of how MPs express their views. They were mostly selected in a different era and it's unreasonable to expect them all to have an instant conversion. In particular, on a life and death issue like Syria where there really are arguments both ways I think it's unreasonable to expect routine party line adherence, even though I would vote no myself. And if centrist MPs want to work on alternative policies, that's a good thing - it was their absence which prompted the leadership selection result. However, if an MP routinely gives the Daily Mail quotes slagging off the leader and the party (in the case I'm thinking of, he did exactly the same with Ed Miliband), they're actively looking for martyrdom.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    AndyJS said:

    If this poll is correct it represents a swing of about 1.3% to Labour since the election. I think it's likely such a swing would be concentrated in the seats Labour already holds rather than the marginals.

    What is the evidence for that? The Green/LibDem vote (which is mostly what's switching) is very significant in middle England marginals (like Broxtowe) and we're certainly seeing people coming back in significant numbers there. It's less of a factor in somewhere like Islington North, where I now live, as Labour was already dominant.
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