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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB gets to within 4% with ICM equalling the party’s best since the general election

As the above panel shows there have been precious few voting polls since the general election. Many of the pollsters and those who commissioned them have cut back on their efforts pending the review a what went wrong on May 7th.

Read the full story here

philiph

Corbyn for first

oxfordsimon

The Corbyn effect will show up in ballot boxes soon enough. It might not yet be showing up in the polls - but when faced with the prospect of Corbyn and McDonnell in Downing Street, then watch the numbers slide.

Polls at this stage of a parliament show very little of real interest.

flightpath01

It will be calming Tory nerves.

RobD

flightpath01 said:

It will be calming Tory nerves.

Tories for Corbyn rejoice!

Razedabode

I would say this poll is all a bit smoke and mirrors. On face value, looks great. However, when you see that's he's mopping up green votes rather than where he needs them, and the Scottish sub sample (yes, only a sub small, I know) it's all a bit predictable really. Miles out from a GE election too. Tories will be happy they are hitting 38%, with potential scope to go higher.

Meanwhile..the labour plp shouting corbyn down in their meeting. Wonderful.

BannedInParis

I fully expect Labour to lead for extended periods of time between now and the next election.

surbiton

Labour won the Conference round !

TheScreamingEagles

The ICM poll in October 2010 post conference had Con 38 and Lab 34.

So Corbyn's doing as well as Miliband.

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2010_oct_st_conferences_poll.pdf

kle4

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

maaarsh

Adjust for the GE miss and you have what, 11 behind?

Cyclefree

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

Danny565

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

However, what this might do is drive home that, for all Labour's problems, the Tories are not riding some wave of huge enthusiasm, despite their laughable delusions and plans of two more unquestioned GE victories or whatever. The public merely decided in May that the Tories were the slightly less disgusting pile of manure to step in, and even that was only because of a leader far more palatable to Joe Public than his most likely successor.

Casino_Royale

Meaningless poll.

chestnut

Unweighted 2015 voting base:

Labour 245
Con 242

Who exactly do they phone? The local jobcentre?

TheScreamingEagles

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Casino_Royale

FPT - "Ultimately, the decision of whether or not the UK should remain within the EU is a political rather than an economic one."

http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Brexit Entry 170_final_bio_web.pdf

runnymede

And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

Quite a lot of today's MPs would be perfectly happy in that world

watford30

runnymede said:

And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

Quite a lot of today's MPs would be perfectly happy in that world

Until they were the ones in the ducking stool.

BannedInParis

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

UKpollingreport goes with

"while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not yet appear to be doing Labour’s voting intention figures any harm."

Music to my ears

As for the prediction - using the same website, it was the end of the year when Labour went ahead in 2010, whereupon it stayed neck and neck for a year and then OMNISHAMBLES

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

I reckon, you'll have leads before the year is out, and consistent leads in 2017.

It will not matter one jot.

Cyclefree

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

However, what this might do is drive home that, for all Labour's problems, the Tories are not riding some wave of huge enthusiasm, despite their laughable delusions and plans of two more unquestioned GE victories or whatever. The public merely decided in May that the Tories were the slightly less disgusting pile of manure to step in, and even that was only because of a leader far more palatable to Joe Public than his most likely successor.

Well, indeed. The Tories would be well advised to avoid complacency and hubris.

Still saying that Corbyn is doing as well as Milliband is damning with faint praise.......

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ICM poll in October 2010 post conference had Con 38 and Lab 34.

So Corbyn's doing as well as Miliband.

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2010_oct_st_conferences_poll.pdf

Problem is that ICM has changed their methodology as most pollsters after the GE.
Although not much change was my prediction, as I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

If they are Home Justice Secretary, who is going to be Away Justice Secretary?


Oh look, my coat!

Dair

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Cyclefree

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

Speedy

BannedInParis said:

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

UKpollingreport goes with

"while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not yet appear to be doing Labour’s voting intention figures any harm."

Music to my ears

As for the prediction - using the same website, it was the end of the year when Labour went ahead in 2010, whereupon it stayed neck and neck for a year and then OMNISHAMBLES

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

I reckon, you'll have leads before the year is out, and consistent leads in 2017.

It will not matter one jot.

Nope, no leads until the economy sours is my bet.
I'm sticking with my summer prediction of not much change.

MP_SE

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

Casino_Royale

Very similar conclusion by Open Europe:


http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150507-Open-Europe-What-If-Report-Final-Digital-Copy.pdf

HYUFD

The Tories are also up on the general election though on 38%. Mori also had Labour on 34% in its first post Corbyn poll. Comres has reweighted since the election and has Labour unchanged on 30%. 34% is the score Kinnock got in 1992 when Major got a bigger majority than Cameron

El_Capitano

JCICIPM.

More seriously, when Mrs Capitano was casting her Labour leadership vote and we were chatting about the contenders, I opined that I didn't have a strong view on the leadership but that Tom Watson would be a disastrous liability as deputy. I'm just surprised how quickly that has come true.

I wonder what odds on Watson going before Corbyn.

Speedy

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

Example: £10,000.00 from Mr S K 'Max' Mongia in cash on the 30/06/2015

(You won't need a brown envelope but a briefcase to fit 10 thousand in)

surbiton

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

Yes. But not You.

Danny565

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

Tax credit cuts + brutal winter for the NHS = Labour lead by end of January, I think.

TheScreamingEagles

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

It is what Britain needs, you're my first choice, Anna Soubry is my second choice.

(And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)

RobD

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

RobD

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

Tax credit cuts + brutal winter for the NHS = Labour lead by end of January, I think.

Don't get started with the 24 hours to save the NHS stuff again!

surbiton

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Any plans for the Department of Culture?

Cyclefree

surbiton said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

Yes. But not You.

So who would your favoured choice be in this Fantasy Were I Dictator of the UK Game?

surbiton

El_Capitano said:

JCICIPM.

More seriously, when Mrs Capitano was casting her Labour leadership vote and we were chatting about the contenders, I opined that I didn't have a strong view on the leadership but that Tom Watson would be a disastrous liability as deputy. I'm just surprised how quickly that has come true.

I wonder what odds on Watson going before Corbyn.

Zero.

TheScreamingEagles

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Cyclefree

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

It is what Britain needs, you're my first choice, Anna Soubry is my second choice.

(And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)

Thank you.

Speedy

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

RobD

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

Danny565

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Having looked at the link someone posted, Labour leads weren't as frequent by this point as I thought, although there had been a handful.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

Jeremy Corbyn's leadership is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets the Battle of Zama meets Tron 2.

Dair

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

Exactly.

That's the main reason they are finished.

Barnesian

Electoral Calculus for fun on latest ICM numbers

Con -10 to 321
Lab +14 to 246
LD -4 to 4

Con 5 short of majority.

Speedy

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

JackW

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury

chestnut

ICM for the Guardian had Labour leading in September 2010.

Luckyguy1983

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Not in the UK it isn't. The only method we have for establishing guilt is a trial. It's a pretty well-established and long-standing method. It's designed to stop people making baseless accusations which others then believe and causing real harm to people. People can come up with evidence and put it in the hands of authorities. But what people can't do - or not in a civilised society - is go round saying "Ah well, he may not have been convicted by a court but we all know he's guilty really". We especially can't do that if we're a lawmaker whom some of the more naive among us would like to think would have some passing acquaintance with - if not actual respect for - one of the basic precepts of English criminal law.

This is exactly the sort of activity for which the press were criticised over Christopher Jeffreys (implying his guilt). It is odd given Watson's links with Hacked Off that he has apparently done the same sort of smear job that the papers did there and which he roundly criticised.

No, it is. It's entirely possible to have been found 'not guilty' of a crime and to have done it. If there is insufficient evidence to avoid reasonable doubt. I believe in that legal principal; I don't want it changed, but it isn't a literal transposition of the truth, for obvious reasons.

I understand and appreciate you believe in what you're saying on this issue, but I am sorry I cannot agree. If our legal system from investigation to trial was functioning in the desired way, how did Jimmy Savile get away with his crimes? How did Cyril Smith get away with his crimes? How did Ted Heath's Whip regale us with tales of MPs coming to him with 'tales of small boys'? Why is there a public enquiry?

TheScreamingEagles

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

It's not physical cash, it is cheque/BACS/CHAPS payments etc, IE a transfer of funds.

surbiton

Barnesian said:

Electoral Calculus for fun on latest ICM numbers

Con -10 to 321
Lab +14 to 246
LD -4 to 4

Con 5 short of majority.

Just shows how vulnerable the LDs are to the slightest swing. Remember we heard before GE2010 that 30, then 25 was their bottom line no matter what the poll said.

richardDodd

Is LUCKYGUY 1983 A spoof or just incredibly stupid..

Luckyguy1983

richardDodd said:

Is LUCKYGUY 1983 A spoof or just incredibly stupid..

I always think accusations of stupidity say more about the accuser - see also Flightpath.

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

It's not physical cash, it is cheque/BACS/CHAPS payments etc, IE a transfer of funds.

For a moment I was thinking about Casinos when I saw the cash under the Donation type.

Danny565

surbiton said:

Barnesian said:

Electoral Calculus for fun on latest ICM numbers

Con -10 to 321
Lab +14 to 246
LD -4 to 4

Con 5 short of majority.

Just shows how vulnerable the LDs are to the slightest swing. Remember we heard before GE2010 that 30, then 25 was their bottom line no matter what the poll said.

Westmoreland is their only 100% in-the-bag seat now.

HYUFD

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

surbiton

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

Speedy

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.

richardDodd

Luckyguy1983...Yes of course you would.. it is the usual stupid persons cover.

Richard_Tyndall

Tonight I am mostly going to have a night off from work, politics and general concerns and distractions by watching Pokey Lafarge at the Union Chapel in North London. Anyone who likes US roots music I can very strongly recommend him.

Moses_

surbiton said:

Labour won the Conference round !

There is still one unoccupied deckchair on the Titanic deck.

SquareRoot

DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS... EVEN THE GOLD STANDARD> THEY STILL HAVE NO ANSWER WHY THEY GOT IT WRONG LAST TIME>

surbiton

Caroline Lucas and Tim Farron could form a coalition.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

What do they have authority to vote for?
Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?

ydoethur

surbiton said:

Caroline Lucas and Tim Farron could form a coalition.

Surbiton, do you mind? I'm eating.

surbiton

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

What do they have authority to vote for?
Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?

There was a clear vote against bombing at the Party conference just concluded. You will argue no doubt that they can vote for whatever they like.

Fair enough. I can also choose to de-select whomever I like.

watford30

Armed illegal immigrants on the loose. Great.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3269556/Police-hunt-gang-ARMED-Afghan-illegal-immigrants-shot-two-brothers-jumping-lorry-Keele-services-M6.html

Luckyguy1983

richardDodd said:

Luckyguy1983...Yes of course you would.. it is the usual stupid persons cover.

I'll defer to your superior knowledge of the condition.

Moses_

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?

Pulpstar

Can us three quidders hire and fire Labour MPs or is that reserved for full members ?

Speedy

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

RobD

Moses_ said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?

PB Tories are known for the eccentricity.

watford30

Luckyguy1983 said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Not in the UK it isn't. The only method we have for establishing guilt is a trial. It's a pretty well-established and long-standing method. It's designed to stop people making baseless accusations which others then believe and causing real harm to people. People can come up with evidence and put it in the hands of authorities. But what people can't do - or not in a civilised society - is go round saying "Ah well, he may not have been convicted by a court but we all know he's guilty really". We especially can't do that if we're a lawmaker whom some of the more naive among us would like to think would have some passing acquaintance with - if not actual respect for - one of the basic precepts of English criminal law.

This is exactly the sort of activity for which the press were criticised over Christopher Jeffreys (implying his guilt). It is odd given Watson's links with Hacked Off that he has apparently done the same sort of smear job that the papers did there and which he roundly criticised.

No, it is. It's entirely possible to have been found 'not guilty' of a crime and to have done it. If there is insufficient evidence to avoid reasonable doubt. I believe in that legal principal; I don't want it changed, but it isn't a literal transposition of the truth, for obvious reasons.

I understand and appreciate you believe in what you're saying on this issue, but I am sorry I cannot agree. If our legal system from investigation to trial was functioning in the desired way, how did Jimmy Savile get away with his crimes? How did Cyril Smith get away with his crimes? How did Ted Heath's Whip regale us with tales of MPs coming to him with 'tales of small boys'? Why is there a public enquiry?

I take it you assume Assange is guilty too.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

surbiton said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

What do they have authority to vote for?
Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?

There was a clear vote against bombing at the Party conference just concluded. You will argue no doubt that they can vote for whatever they like.

Fair enough. I can also choose to de-select whomever I like.

I side with the (Edmund Burke?) view of an MP.
Is there a link for what else conference voted on?

Moses_

Breaking

Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

BBC news

Speedy

Moses_ said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?

I thought the electoral commission made a discrimination between cash and checks or other bank transfers, for a moment I thought about a briefcase full of 50 pound notes.

surbiton

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

The only good news I have heard is that the Labour Party MPs will not vote for bombing unless there is a UNSC resolution - which, of course, will not come. So any bombing will be illegal in international law. Of course, you can't tell about the Blairite rump.

You are right. If one British fighter gets shot down by a SAM, there will be hell to pay. God forbid, if the pilot is taken prisoner by those IS nutters.

Dair

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

£20m of the Liberals money came from the public purse.

They will not see that again.

HYUFD

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.

Other pollsters have Labour lower

richardDodd

My deep knowledge of stupidity comes entirely from many years of observing stupid people...like yourself..

notme

RobD said:

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

Tax credit cuts + brutal winter for the NHS = Labour lead by end of January, I think.

Don't get started with the 24 hours to save the NHS stuff again!

It's like he is channelling Tim. Every winter you could feel the utter disappointment when hundreds of more people werent dying because of the mild winter.

The NHS crisis was the Judgement Day that didnt come. But boy, they prayed.

Speedy

Moses_ said:

Breaking

Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

BBC news

5 more years to go for Assange to be a free man.

HYUFD

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

Putin is not going to shoot down a western jet and start world war three and vice versa

surbiton

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.

Other pollsters have Labour lower

In October ?

surbiton

Moses_ said:

Breaking

Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

BBC news

Days of Austerity ! Sadly, I paid for this act of stupidity.

How can it cost £12.6m ? Is Wayne Rooney a copper ?

HYUFD

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

Danny565 said:

Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.

Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM

There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.

Other pollsters have Labour lower

In October ?

This ICM is the first taken completely since Corbyn became leader

Dair

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

Where can you see the ICM poll VI

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.

Thanks.

UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.

The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci

Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?

LD total donations and number of donors:

9456
£73,187,386.38

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

£73mn well spent.

In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.

What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.

Holy moly indeed, look:

Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

I believe this will include Debit Card payments.

flightpath01

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

You are a good example of the rising hysteria on here.
France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
Do grow up.
Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti

Pulpstar

Tbh Assange isn't hiding out in the embassy to avoid a few months in a Swedish prison.30 years+ in a super max in the USA is a different matter entirely.

Speedy

surbiton said:

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

The only good news I have heard is that the Labour Party MPs will not vote for bombing unless there is a UNSC resolution - which, of course, will not come. So any bombing will be illegal in international law. Of course, you can't tell about the Blairite rump.

You are right. If one British fighter gets shot down by a SAM, there will be hell to pay. God forbid, if the pilot is taken prisoner by those IS nutters.

In a case of a RAF jet getting shot down the pilot, if he survives, will be a prisoner of the russians. It will create a severe military and diplomatic incident, including public humiliation by the russians and fears of a real war between Britain and Russia.
The sanity of the PM will be in question, risking a big war just to create a headache for Corbyn is just nuts.

flightpath01

Luckyguy1983 said:

richardDodd said:

Is LUCKYGUY 1983 A spoof or just incredibly stupid..

I always think accusations of stupidity say more about the accuser - see also Flightpath.

You are so incredibly thick as to beggar belief. Your sneering snivelling comments about the Brittan issue are just plain sick. Go fuxs off.

MP_SE

Moses_ said:

Breaking

Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

BBC news

In the words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!"

Speedy

flightpath01 said:

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

You are a good example of the rising hysteria on here.
France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
Do grow up.
Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti

1 or 2 bombs a week does not constitute a bombing campaign by an airforce.
Hollande may say he is conducting an air campaign but if it's invisible then it's like it's not happening, same goes for Obama.

chestnut

Libby Wiener ‏@LibbyWienerITV 1h1 hour ago
Heated exchanges at tonight's PLP. One backbencher reportedly shouting at Corbyn demanding to know where Labour stand on policies @itvnews

Libby Wiener ‏@LibbyWienerITV 56m56 minutes ago
If Corbyn thought his 1st PLP was bad, getting even rougher ride at his 2nd U-turn on fiscal charter dubbed 'a huge joke' by one MP@itvnews

Dair

Pulpstar said:

Tbh Assange isn't hiding out in the embassy to avoid a few months in a Swedish prison.30 years+ in a super max in the USA is a different matter entirely.

I don't think the Swedish charges would carry a prison sentence anyway for a first offence (although maybe due to his failure to return voluntarily he might exacerbate things).

He's charged with two counts of sexual misconduct, which is only reported as "rape" here because Lefties want anything in the sack to count as rape if it involves a complaint against a man.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.

Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

(And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)

Oi! Hands off! That's my turf

flightpath01

Speedy said:

flightpath01 said:

Speedy said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

Par.

I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.

The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.

You are a good example of the rising hysteria on here.
France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
Do grow up.
Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti

1 or 2 bombs a week does not constitute a bombing campaign by an airforce.
Hollande may say he is conducting an air campaign but if it's invisible then it's like it's not happening, same goes for Obama.

You are twisting words like the red queen just to suit yourself.