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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB gets to within 4% with ICM equalling the party

As the above panel shows there have been precious few voting polls since the general election. Many of the pollsters and those who commissioned them have cut back on their efforts pending the review a what went wrong on May 7th.
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Polls at this stage of a parliament show very little of real interest.
Meanwhile..the labour plp shouting corbyn down in their meeting. Wonderful.
So Corbyn's doing as well as Miliband.
http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2010_oct_st_conferences_poll.pdf
But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.
When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .
Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.
However, what this might do is drive home that, for all Labour's problems, the Tories are not riding some wave of huge enthusiasm, despite their laughable delusions and plans of two more unquestioned GE victories or whatever. The public merely decided in May that the Tories were the slightly less disgusting pile of manure to step in, and even that was only because of a leader far more palatable to Joe Public than his most likely successor.
Labour 245
Con 242
Who exactly do they phone? The local jobcentre?
http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Brexit Entry 170_final_bio_web.pdf
Quite a lot of today's MPs would be perfectly happy in that world
"while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not yet appear to be doing Labour’s voting intention figures any harm."
Music to my ears
As for the prediction - using the same website, it was the end of the year when Labour went ahead in 2010, whereupon it stayed neck and neck for a year and then OMNISHAMBLES
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
I reckon, you'll have leads before the year is out, and consistent leads in 2017.
It will not matter one jot.
Still saying that Corbyn is doing as well as Milliband is damning with faint praise.......
Although not much change was my prediction, as I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate.
Oh look, my coat!
You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??
I'm sticking with my summer prediction of not much change.
http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150507-Open-Europe-What-If-Report-Final-Digital-Copy.pdf
More seriously, when Mrs Capitano was casting her Labour leadership vote and we were chatting about the contenders, I opined that I didn't have a strong view on the leadership but that Tom Watson would be a disastrous liability as deputy. I'm just surprised how quickly that has come true.
I wonder what odds on Watson going before Corbyn.
9456
£73,187,386.38
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
Example: £10,000.00 from Mr S K 'Max' Mongia in cash on the 30/06/2015
(You won't need a brown envelope but a briefcase to fit 10 thousand in)
(And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)
So who would your favoured choice be in this Fantasy Were I Dictator of the UK Game?
That's the main reason they are finished.
Con -10 to 321
Lab +14 to 246
LD -4 to 4
Con 5 short of majority.
Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
I understand and appreciate you believe in what you're saying on this issue, but I am sorry I cannot agree. If our legal system from investigation to trial was functioning in the desired way, how did Jimmy Savile get away with his crimes? How did Cyril Smith get away with his crimes? How did Ted Heath's Whip regale us with tales of MPs coming to him with 'tales of small boys'? Why is there a public enquiry?
I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.
The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?
Fair enough. I can also choose to de-select whomever I like.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3269556/Police-hunt-gang-ARMED-Afghan-illegal-immigrants-shot-two-brothers-jumping-lorry-Keele-services-M6.html
In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
Is there a link for what else conference voted on?
Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.
BBC news
You are right. If one British fighter gets shot down by a SAM, there will be hell to pay. God forbid, if the pilot is taken prisoner by those IS nutters.
They will not see that again.
The NHS crisis was the Judgement Day that didnt come. But boy, they prayed.
How can it cost £12.6m ? Is Wayne Rooney a copper ?
France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
Do grow up.
Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti
The sanity of the PM will be in question, risking a big war just to create a headache for Corbyn is just nuts.
Hollande may say he is conducting an air campaign but if it's invisible then it's like it's not happening, same goes for Obama.
Heated exchanges at tonight's PLP. One backbencher reportedly shouting at Corbyn demanding to know where Labour stand on policies @itvnews
Libby Wiener @LibbyWienerITV 56m56 minutes ago
If Corbyn thought his 1st PLP was bad, getting even rougher ride at his 2nd U-turn on fiscal charter dubbed 'a huge joke' by one MP@itvnews
He's charged with two counts of sexual misconduct, which is only reported as "rape" here because Lefties want anything in the sack to count as rape if it involves a complaint against a man.