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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB gets to within 4% with ICM equalling the party

SystemSystem Posts: 12,552
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB gets to within 4% with ICM equalling the party’s best since the general election

As the above panel shows there have been precious few voting polls since the general election. Many of the pollsters and those who commissioned them have cut back on their efforts pending the review a what went wrong on May 7th.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Corbyn for first
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    The Corbyn effect will show up in ballot boxes soon enough. It might not yet be showing up in the polls - but when faced with the prospect of Corbyn and McDonnell in Downing Street, then watch the numbers slide.

    Polls at this stage of a parliament show very little of real interest.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    It will be calming Tory nerves.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    flightpath01 said:

    It will be calming Tory nerves.

    Tories for Corbyn rejoice!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    I would say this poll is all a bit smoke and mirrors. On face value, looks great. However, when you see that's he's mopping up green votes rather than where he needs them, and the Scottish sub sample (yes, only a sub small, I know) it's all a bit predictable really. Miles out from a GE election too. Tories will be happy they are hitting 38%, with potential scope to go higher.

    Meanwhile..the labour plp shouting corbyn down in their meeting. Wonderful.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    I fully expect Labour to lead for extended periods of time between now and the next election.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Labour won the Conference round !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    The ICM poll in October 2010 post conference had Con 38 and Lab 34.

    So Corbyn's doing as well as Miliband.

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2010_oct_st_conferences_poll.pdf
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Adjust for the GE miss and you have what, 11 behind?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,673
    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    However, what this might do is drive home that, for all Labour's problems, the Tories are not riding some wave of huge enthusiasm, despite their laughable delusions and plans of two more unquestioned GE victories or whatever. The public merely decided in May that the Tories were the slightly less disgusting pile of manure to step in, and even that was only because of a leader far more palatable to Joe Public than his most likely successor.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    Meaningless poll.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Unweighted 2015 voting base:

    Labour 245
    Con 242

    Who exactly do they phone? The local jobcentre?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    FPT - "Ultimately, the decision of whether or not the UK should remain within the EU is a political rather than an economic one."

    http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Brexit Entry 170_final_bio_web.pdf
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    Quite a lot of today's MPs would be perfectly happy in that world
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    runnymede said:

    And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    Quite a lot of today's MPs would be perfectly happy in that world

    Until they were the ones in the ducking stool.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    kle4 said:

    I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

    UKpollingreport goes with

    "while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not yet appear to be doing Labour’s voting intention figures any harm."

    Music to my ears :D

    As for the prediction - using the same website, it was the end of the year when Labour went ahead in 2010, whereupon it stayed neck and neck for a year and then OMNISHAMBLES

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    I reckon, you'll have leads before the year is out, and consistent leads in 2017.

    It will not matter one jot.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,673
    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    However, what this might do is drive home that, for all Labour's problems, the Tories are not riding some wave of huge enthusiasm, despite their laughable delusions and plans of two more unquestioned GE victories or whatever. The public merely decided in May that the Tories were the slightly less disgusting pile of manure to step in, and even that was only because of a leader far more palatable to Joe Public than his most likely successor.

    Well, indeed. The Tories would be well advised to avoid complacency and hubris.

    Still saying that Corbyn is doing as well as Milliband is damning with faint praise.......

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The ICM poll in October 2010 post conference had Con 38 and Lab 34.

    So Corbyn's doing as well as Miliband.

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2010_oct_st_conferences_poll.pdf

    Problem is that ICM has changed their methodology as most pollsters after the GE.
    Although not much change was my prediction, as I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    If they are Home Justice Secretary, who is going to be Away Justice Secretary?


    Oh look, my coat!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,673
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

    You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    BannedInParis said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

    UKpollingreport goes with

    "while Jeremy Corbyn maybe getting some mediocre personal poll ratings, it does not yet appear to be doing Labour’s voting intention figures any harm."

    Music to my ears :D

    As for the prediction - using the same website, it was the end of the year when Labour went ahead in 2010, whereupon it stayed neck and neck for a year and then OMNISHAMBLES

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    I reckon, you'll have leads before the year is out, and consistent leads in 2017.

    It will not matter one jot.
    Nope, no leads until the economy sours is my bet.
    I'm sticking with my summer prediction of not much change.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    Very similar conclusion by Open Europe:


    http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150507-Open-Europe-What-If-Report-Final-Digital-Copy.pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    edited October 2015
    The Tories are also up on the general election though on 38%. Mori also had Labour on 34% in its first post Corbyn poll. Comres has reweighted since the election and has Labour unchanged on 30%. 34% is the score Kinnock got in 1992 when Major got a bigger majority than Cameron
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,250
    JCICIPM.

    More seriously, when Mrs Capitano was casting her Labour leadership vote and we were chatting about the contenders, I opined that I didn't have a strong view on the leadership but that Tom Watson would be a disastrous liability as deputy. I'm just surprised how quickly that has come true.

    I wonder what odds on Watson going before Corbyn.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true

    Example: £10,000.00 from Mr S K 'Max' Mongia in cash on the 30/06/2015

    (You won't need a brown envelope but a briefcase to fit 10 thousand in)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

    You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

    Yes. But not You.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2015
    kle4 said:

    I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

    Tax credit cuts + brutal winter for the NHS = Labour lead by end of January, I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

    You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

    It is what Britain needs, you're my first choice, Anna Soubry is my second choice.

    (And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

    Tax credit cuts + brutal winter for the NHS = Labour lead by end of January, I think.
    Don't get started with the 24 hours to save the NHS stuff again!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    Any plans for the Department of Culture?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,673
    edited October 2015
    surbiton said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

    You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

    Yes. But not You.
    :(

    So who would your favoured choice be in this Fantasy Were I Dictator of the UK Game?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    El_Capitano said:

    JCICIPM.

    More seriously, when Mrs Capitano was casting her Labour leadership vote and we were chatting about the contenders, I opined that I didn't have a strong view on the leadership but that Tom Watson would be a disastrous liability as deputy. I'm just surprised how quickly that has come true.

    I wonder what odds on Watson going before Corbyn.

    Zero.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,673
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

    You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??

    It is what Britain needs, you're my first choice, Anna Soubry is my second choice.

    (And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)
    Thank you. :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.
    Having looked at the link someone posted, Labour leads weren't as frequent by this point as I thought, although there had been a handful.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    Jeremy Corbyn's leadership is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets the Battle of Zama meets Tron 2.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    Exactly.

    That's the main reason they are finished.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,208
    Electoral Calculus for fun on latest ICM numbers

    Con -10 to 321
    Lab +14 to 246
    LD -4 to 4

    Con 5 short of majority.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
    Holy moly indeed, look:

    Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
    Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2015
    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be First Lord Of The Treasury
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    ICM for the Guardian had Labour leading in September 2010.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,935
    FPT
    Cyclefree said:



    Not in the UK it isn't. The only method we have for establishing guilt is a trial. It's a pretty well-established and long-standing method. It's designed to stop people making baseless accusations which others then believe and causing real harm to people. People can come up with evidence and put it in the hands of authorities. But what people can't do - or not in a civilised society - is go round saying "Ah well, he may not have been convicted by a court but we all know he's guilty really". We especially can't do that if we're a lawmaker whom some of the more naive among us would like to think would have some passing acquaintance with - if not actual respect for - one of the basic precepts of English criminal law.

    This is exactly the sort of activity for which the press were criticised over Christopher Jeffreys (implying his guilt). It is odd given Watson's links with Hacked Off that he has apparently done the same sort of smear job that the papers did there and which he roundly criticised.

    No, it is. It's entirely possible to have been found 'not guilty' of a crime and to have done it. If there is insufficient evidence to avoid reasonable doubt. I believe in that legal principal; I don't want it changed, but it isn't a literal transposition of the truth, for obvious reasons.

    I understand and appreciate you believe in what you're saying on this issue, but I am sorry I cannot agree. If our legal system from investigation to trial was functioning in the desired way, how did Jimmy Savile get away with his crimes? How did Cyril Smith get away with his crimes? How did Ted Heath's Whip regale us with tales of MPs coming to him with 'tales of small boys'? Why is there a public enquiry?



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
    Holy moly indeed, look:

    Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
    Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    It's not physical cash, it is cheque/BACS/CHAPS payments etc, IE a transfer of funds.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Barnesian said:

    Electoral Calculus for fun on latest ICM numbers

    Con -10 to 321
    Lab +14 to 246
    LD -4 to 4

    Con 5 short of majority.

    Just shows how vulnerable the LDs are to the slightest swing. Remember we heard before GE2010 that 30, then 25 was their bottom line no matter what the poll said.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Is LUCKYGUY 1983 A spoof or just incredibly stupid..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,935
    richardDodd said:

    Is LUCKYGUY 1983 A spoof or just incredibly stupid..

    I always think accusations of stupidity say more about the accuser - see also Flightpath.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
    Holy moly indeed, look:

    Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
    Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    It's not physical cash, it is cheque/BACS/CHAPS payments etc, IE a transfer of funds.
    For a moment I was thinking about Casinos when I saw the cash under the Donation type.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Electoral Calculus for fun on latest ICM numbers

    Con -10 to 321
    Lab +14 to 246
    LD -4 to 4

    Con 5 short of majority.

    Just shows how vulnerable the LDs are to the slightest swing. Remember we heard before GE2010 that 30, then 25 was their bottom line no matter what the poll said.
    Westmoreland is their only 100% in-the-bag seat now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.
    Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2015
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.
    Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM
    There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Luckyguy1983...Yes of course you would.. it is the usual stupid persons cover.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,403
    Tonight I am mostly going to have a night off from work, politics and general concerns and distractions by watching Pokey Lafarge at the Union Chapel in North London. Anyone who likes US roots music I can very strongly recommend him.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    surbiton said:

    Labour won the Conference round !

    There is still one unoccupied deckchair on the Titanic deck.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2015
    DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS... EVEN THE GOLD STANDARD> THEY STILL HAVE NO ANSWER WHY THEY GOT IT WRONG LAST TIME>
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Caroline Lucas and Tim Farron could form a coalition.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    .

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    What do they have authority to vote for?
    Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,054
    surbiton said:

    Caroline Lucas and Tim Farron could form a coalition.

    Surbiton, do you mind? I'm eating.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    .

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    What do they have authority to vote for?
    Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?
    There was a clear vote against bombing at the Party conference just concluded. You will argue no doubt that they can vote for whatever they like.

    Fair enough. I can also choose to de-select whomever I like.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Armed illegal immigrants on the loose. Great.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3269556/Police-hunt-gang-ARMED-Afghan-illegal-immigrants-shot-two-brothers-jumping-lorry-Keele-services-M6.html
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,935
    richardDodd said:

    Luckyguy1983...Yes of course you would.. it is the usual stupid persons cover.

    I'll defer to your superior knowledge of the condition.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
    Holy moly indeed, look:

    Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
    Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,712
    Can us three quidders hire and fire Labour MPs or is that reserved for full members :D ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

    In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Moses_ said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
    Holy moly indeed, look:

    Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
    Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?
    PB Tories are known for the eccentricity.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT

    Cyclefree said:



    Not in the UK it isn't. The only method we have for establishing guilt is a trial. It's a pretty well-established and long-standing method. It's designed to stop people making baseless accusations which others then believe and causing real harm to people. People can come up with evidence and put it in the hands of authorities. But what people can't do - or not in a civilised society - is go round saying "Ah well, he may not have been convicted by a court but we all know he's guilty really". We especially can't do that if we're a lawmaker whom some of the more naive among us would like to think would have some passing acquaintance with - if not actual respect for - one of the basic precepts of English criminal law.

    This is exactly the sort of activity for which the press were criticised over Christopher Jeffreys (implying his guilt). It is odd given Watson's links with Hacked Off that he has apparently done the same sort of smear job that the papers did there and which he roundly criticised.

    No, it is. It's entirely possible to have been found 'not guilty' of a crime and to have done it. If there is insufficient evidence to avoid reasonable doubt. I believe in that legal principal; I don't want it changed, but it isn't a literal transposition of the truth, for obvious reasons.

    I understand and appreciate you believe in what you're saying on this issue, but I am sorry I cannot agree. If our legal system from investigation to trial was functioning in the desired way, how did Jimmy Savile get away with his crimes? How did Cyril Smith get away with his crimes? How did Ted Heath's Whip regale us with tales of MPs coming to him with 'tales of small boys'? Why is there a public enquiry?



    I take it you assume Assange is guilty too.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    surbiton said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    .

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    What do they have authority to vote for?
    Only stuff contained in the Labour manifesto?
    There was a clear vote against bombing at the Party conference just concluded. You will argue no doubt that they can vote for whatever they like.

    Fair enough. I can also choose to de-select whomever I like.
    I side with the (Edmund Burke?) view of an MP.
    Is there a link for what else conference voted on?

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Breaking

    Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
    Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
    The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

    BBC news
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Moses_ said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
    Holy moly indeed, look:

    Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
    Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    Please tell me you didn't actually think she wandered through the front door and deposited £200,000.00 in pound coins or similar. I mean even you cannot be that stupid? Or can you?
    I thought the electoral commission made a discrimination between cash and checks or other bank transfers, for a moment I thought about a briefcase full of 50 pound notes.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

    In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
    The only good news I have heard is that the Labour Party MPs will not vote for bombing unless there is a UNSC resolution - which, of course, will not come. So any bombing will be illegal in international law. Of course, you can't tell about the Blairite rump.

    You are right. If one British fighter gets shot down by a SAM, there will be hell to pay. God forbid, if the pilot is taken prisoner by those IS nutters.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    £20m of the Liberals money came from the public purse.

    They will not see that again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.
    Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM
    There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.
    Other pollsters have Labour lower
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited October 2015
    My deep knowledge of stupidity comes entirely from many years of observing stupid people...like yourself..
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder when the first Labour lead will be - even those saying Corbyn would be a disaster predicted he'd manage a lead at some point.

    Tax credit cuts + brutal winter for the NHS = Labour lead by end of January, I think.
    Don't get started with the 24 hours to save the NHS stuff again!
    It's like he is channelling Tim. Every winter you could feel the utter disappointment when hundreds of more people werent dying because of the mild winter.

    The NHS crisis was the Judgement Day that didnt come. But boy, they prayed.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Moses_ said:

    Breaking

    Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
    Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
    The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

    BBC news

    5 more years to go for Assange to be a free man.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

    In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
    Putin is not going to shoot down a western jet and start world war three and vice versa
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.
    Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM
    There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.
    Other pollsters have Labour lower
    In October ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Moses_ said:

    Breaking

    Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
    Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
    The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

    BBC news

    Days of Austerity ! Sadly, I paid for this act of stupidity.

    How can it cost £12.6m ? Is Wayne Rooney a copper ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    Well, that's still pretty poor, especially considering at this point in 2010, Labour leads were already a semi-regular occurrence.

    That is not correct. The Tories were still in the lead exactly at this point post-GE2010.
    Labour were polling 36% on average in October 2010 so Corbyn is doing worse than Ed Miliband at this stage even with ICM
    There has been only one poll this October so far, so you can't take an average to compare yet.
    Other pollsters have Labour lower
    In October ?
    This ICM is the first taken completely since Corbyn became leader
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
    The Liberals will have big problems financially, they owe millions, including £800k to Police Scotland. I don't see any future for them, sure they can become what the old Liberals became - a tiny rump winning a few Counci
    Where do the Lib Dems get their money from as their membership is similar to UKIP's except they have no way near as many wealthy donors?
    LD total donations and number of donors:

    9456
    £73,187,386.38

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Liberal Democrats&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    £73mn well spent.
    In comparison UKIP have 1560 donors and £14,722,884.23 in donations, Labour 15774 and £275,557,783.70, and the Conservatives 16012 and £314,588,688.81.
    What's the timeframe. £300mn, holy moly.
    Holy moly indeed, look:

    Donation to Conservative party £200,000.00 in CASH, date 30/06/2015 by Ms Rosemary J Simpson.
    Who goes around with £200,000.00 in CASH these days?

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/?currentPage=1&rows=10&query=Conservative&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&et=pp&et=ppm&et=tp&et=perpar&et=rd&prePoll=false&postPoll=true
    I believe this will include Debit Card payments.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

    In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
    You are a good example of the rising hysteria on here.
    France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
    Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
    Do grow up.
    Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,712
    Tbh Assange isn't hiding out in the embassy to avoid a few months in a Swedish prison.30 years+ in a super max in the USA is a different matter entirely.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

    In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
    The only good news I have heard is that the Labour Party MPs will not vote for bombing unless there is a UNSC resolution - which, of course, will not come. So any bombing will be illegal in international law. Of course, you can't tell about the Blairite rump.

    You are right. If one British fighter gets shot down by a SAM, there will be hell to pay. God forbid, if the pilot is taken prisoner by those IS nutters.
    In a case of a RAF jet getting shot down the pilot, if he survives, will be a prisoner of the russians. It will create a severe military and diplomatic incident, including public humiliation by the russians and fears of a real war between Britain and Russia.
    The sanity of the PM will be in question, risking a big war just to create a headache for Corbyn is just nuts.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    richardDodd said:

    Is LUCKYGUY 1983 A spoof or just incredibly stupid..

    I always think accusations of stupidity say more about the accuser - see also Flightpath.
    You are so incredibly thick as to beggar belief. Your sneering snivelling comments about the Brittan issue are just plain sick. Go fuxs off.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited October 2015
    Moses_ said:

    Breaking

    Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.
    Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.
    The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

    BBC news

    In the words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!"
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    flightpath01 said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

    In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
    You are a good example of the rising hysteria on here.
    France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
    Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
    Do grow up.
    Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti
    1 or 2 bombs a week does not constitute a bombing campaign by an airforce.
    Hollande may say he is conducting an air campaign but if it's invisible then it's like it's not happening, same goes for Obama.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2015
    Libby Wiener ‏@LibbyWienerITV 1h1 hour ago
    Heated exchanges at tonight's PLP. One backbencher reportedly shouting at Corbyn demanding to know where Labour stand on policies @itvnews

    Libby Wiener ‏@LibbyWienerITV 56m56 minutes ago
    If Corbyn thought his 1st PLP was bad, getting even rougher ride at his 2nd U-turn on fiscal charter dubbed 'a huge joke' by one MP@itvnews
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Tbh Assange isn't hiding out in the embassy to avoid a few months in a Swedish prison.30 years+ in a super max in the USA is a different matter entirely.

    I don't think the Swedish charges would carry a prison sentence anyway for a first offence (although maybe due to his failure to return voluntarily he might exacerbate things).

    He's charged with two counts of sexual misconduct, which is only reported as "rape" here because Lefties want anything in the sack to count as rape if it involves a complaint against a man.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I will not repeat what I put at the end of the previous thread re Lord B and Watson.

    But I would just summarise it thus: innocent until proven guilty is not some legal technicality. It's not innocent in the eyes of the law but guilty in the eyes of everyone else. All of us are innocent. Full stop.

    When we're charged, we're still innocent. We're innocent until the moment a jury (or magistrate) convicts us after a fair trial. And a fair trial is not some journalist or MP or other self-important booby pronouncing on our guilt or on how evil or not we are .

    Trying to suggest otherwise is nasty smearing and tittle tattle and shows a lack of respect for well-established and long-standing legal processes. Lamentable in an MP. And frankly no better than ducking people in rivers to see if they float as a way of determining guilt.

    When I become the country's first directly elected Dictator, I'm making you either Home Secretary or Justice Secretary. If you're lucky, I might make you both.
    Well that's very kind. And I would be honoured, of course. (I'd quite like to run the City as well, if it's not too much to ask.)

    You don't think, though, that Britain would be ready for another clear-thinking lady to run things, no??


    (And you can be the absolute ruler of the City of London)
    Oi! Hands off! That's my turf ;)
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Speedy said:

    flightpath01 said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Ben Bradshaw on John McDonnell's fiscal charter U-turn: "It's a total fucking shambles."

    Par.
    I don't think any parliamentary group has behaved like this to their own elected [ by a decisive margin ] leader. Even the "wets" in the late 70's were coded with their words. People like Jim Prior used to say, "how can you have a thriving service sector if you didn't have a manufacturing sector to serve" ?

    I think the party membership will not tolerate this. I am somebody who voted 1. Cooper 2. Burnham and did not vote 3 or 4.

    The Syria vote could be the catalyst. Many people in the party will not countenance any vote for bombing. If my MP was a Labour MP and voted for bombing , I would start de-selection proceedings myself. No one gave them the authority to vote for bombing.
    The Syria vote is just silly, if the PM wants to risk a shooting war with other great powers over Syria just so he can make the Labour party look divided at a time when he is ahead anyway and the next election years away, he is a certified loony.

    In a western democracy you do small wars when you are down in the polls, not great wars when you are up, Cameron risks forced removal from office the moment the first RAF jet gets shot down by the russians, that is a steep price just to make Labour MP's look unruly.
    You are a good example of the rising hysteria on here.
    France has been bombing targets in Syria since last month. The USA for even longer. That's good old fashioned socialist nutjob France. Mr goody two shoes peace prize winner Obama.
    Are Hollande or Obama likely to be removed from office if a plane of theirs is shot down.
    Do grow up.
    Meantime Putin is spraying missiles around like confetti
    1 or 2 bombs a week does not constitute a bombing campaign by an airforce.
    Hollande may say he is conducting an air campaign but if it's invisible then it's like it's not happening, same goes for Obama.
    You are twisting words like the red queen just to suit yourself.
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