politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmit

JEO said:

murali_s said:

JEO said:

I see Labour are opposing immigration checks once again:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34498836

Apparently, making sure someone is in the UK legally is the equivalent to no dogs, no blacks, no Irish signs.

Well the path between the two is very much shorter than you think....

We'll have to see how this plays out but I for one am not pleased about it...

Burnham is unnecessarily racialising a non-racial issue to play to the Labour gallery. It is bitter and inflammatory politics, which Labour supporters would heavily criticise if UKIP did the same thing to stir up white anger.

philiph said:

Paperwork? I'm chair of a local charity helping people with mental health issues. We have copious amounts of paperwork to complete. It is a massive issue.

However we have to do it for our funders, staff, clients and trustees. It may appear tiresome or unnecessary, but at every point we have to be able to show we have taken every step to protect vulnerable people.

Paperwork is inescapable in a modern world.

Am I allowed to finish with donations welcome at www.growing-people.org.uk. ?

TOPPING said:

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

I don't think it will be very effective to attack Zac's perceived out of touchedness, but I don't think it will exactly be a 'mistake' in the sense I doubt it would harm Khan to do it. What would be a mistake would be to focus too much on it, as since you point out it's not going to win the day if Zac is perceived to have good qualities elsewhere. Probably best for Khan to attack the policies, as you say, since those people who are going to vote based on Zac being supposedly out of touch, will not need any encouragement from the candidate to decide on that basis.

I think the "too rich, out of touch" jibes only work when paired with actual policy. Whenever Labour tried it in the 2005-10 Parliament against Cameron, it always seemed gratuitous and irrelevant. It was only when they got into government, and they started simultaneously clobbering poor people while showering the rich with goodies, that the public started to feel their posh-ness was relevant.

Which brings me onto the next point: I think it's just wrong to say the "posh/out of touch" attacks didn't work at all in the last parliament. How people vote in a general election, and how they vote in mid-term elections are very different things. In the mid-term elections, the sense that the Tories were a bunch of rich kids was one of the main reasons the Tories got dustings (especially in 2012 immediately after the tax giveaway to millionaires). At the general election, people felt it was more important to go with the party who was best on the economy and which leader would look less out-of-place at world summits, but nobody thinks the Mayor of London is going to affect either of those things so people will vote on personality.

It did work and was effective. Happily the fact that Lab was perceived as fiscally incompetent worked more effectively. However, as a shall we say to the right of the party economically and wet/left of it socially Cons supporter, I did cringe every time yet another OE was appointed to some position of power. Being voted in by the GBP is ofc different but my heart does sink at Zac's profile.

The question I asked throughout 05-10 remains - are there really no super-bright, intellectually gigantic, switched on, streetwise Cons candidates from Worksop? Or in this case Dagenham (no offence)?

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

What do you think natural wastage is? Retirements alone? There isn't a single industry where that is true.

Teachers leaving their profession is not higher than other rates of change.

Any figures to support that? I somehow doubt that 50% of new insurance brokers quit the profession in five years.

What makes you think that? Actually IIRC the average is 70% of new employees quit their profession within the first five years. The teaching profession (like most public sector ones) has a significantly lower turnover rate than other sectors. Never seen any figures to suggest otherwise.

Charles said:

Plato_Says said:

My next door neighbour had a bull of epic proportions - I've lived cheek by jowl with many large farm animals - but this thing was the bovine version of King Kong. She rode it and the first time I saw it, I couldn't believe my eyes.

It was 6ft at the shoulder, huge wide horns and 800lbs at least. No idea what breed - but !!!!!!

This sort of scale http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1392792/What-load-bull-Britains-biggest-bull-retires--spared-going-mincer.html

TheWhiteRabbit said:

notme said:

kle4 said:

richardDodd said:

Plato.. I never eat roast beef here mainly because there is never a cow seen in in a field..they spend their lives locked up in sheds..

I seem to bump into cows whenever I wander the local fields down my way - they often follow people around, and it makes me nervous I must say, coward that I am.

Cows are actually very curious and very dangerous. If you are used to animals, the bluff and courage is enough to get them to do what you want without causing panic.

Cows with calves are very defensive and will stampede if they perceive you as a threat, while everyone knows about older bulls, and why they arent allowed on public walkways, the same isnt for young bulls up to a certain age. They get very aggressive and territorial.

I often run along a river, with cows to the other side of the path. You have to be very careful and aware with them.

My city dwelling friends do not, I think, realise quite how big a cow is...

Can we have a moment of silence for Picston Shottle who died earlier this year after producing nearly 1.2 million units of semen

http://www.fwi.co.uk/livestock/dairy-bull-legend-picston-shottle-dies+.htm

SeanT said:

A distressing map. Cousin marriages around the world, by percentage.

http://www.reproductive-health-journal.com/content/6/1/17/figure/F1

philiph said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

INcidentally, I'm not going to repost them but my comments here from last week still have relevance to @John_M and @MTimT's discussion.

Just to reiterate, in light of subsequent comments - I do not know when OFSTED are coming in. The only reason I am doing all this extra paperwork is because it is what they insist on seeing when they do come in. It is totally irrelevant to the education I am giving my children, and putting me under a colossal and unnecessary strain. However, if I don't do it, the outstanding exam results don't matter and we will get a 4 for having the wrong paperwork. It has made me wonder whether I should also quit teaching in favour of a profession where you are not constantly bossed about by a bunch of pompous failures (does anyone know of such a profession)? So these figures do not surprise me.

If paperwork is due to be done then it should be due to be done at all times and not just when an inspection is expected. If it isn't required it should be scrapped if it is, it should always be completed. Either way it is not the fault of OFSTED. That is like a chef complaining because the EHO demand to see completed temperature checks. They're required for a reason not for the EHO or OFSTED respectively.

Every profession I know has paperwork requirements.

The point is, it is expected to be completed AT ALL TIMES for the benefit of the inspectors. They demand it so that they can 'see continuous progress' (although, frustratingly, they often then don't check it). It has no use whatsoever apart from that. It does nothing to improve my teaching - in fact, given the vast amount of time it wastes, quite the reverse. So it is undoubtedly the fault of OFSTED, and I am at a loss to see your point.

Paperwork? I'm chair of a local charity helping people with mental health issues. We have copious amounts of paperwork to complete. It is a massive issue.

However we have to do it for our funders, staff, clients and trustees. It may appear tiresome or unnecessary, but at every point we have to be able to show we have taken every step to protect vulnerable people.

Paperwork is inescapable in a modern world.

Am I allowed to finish with donations welcome at www.growing-people.org.uk. ? (or message me for info)

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Cyclefree said:

philiph said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

INcidentally, I'm not going to repost them but my comments here from last week still have relevance to @John_M and @MTimT's discussion.

Just to reiterate, in light of subsequent comments - I do not know when OFSTED are coming in. The only reason I am doing all this extra paperwork is because it is what they insist on seeing when they do come in. It is totally irrelevant to the education I am giving my children, and putting me under a colossal and unnecessary strain. However, if I don't do it, the outstanding exam results don't matter and we will get a 4 for having the wrong paperwork. It has made me wonder whether I should also quit teaching in favour of a profession where you are not constantly bossed about by a bunch of pompous failures (does anyone know of such a profession)? So these figures do not surprise me.

If paperwork is due to be done then it should be due to be done at all times and not just when an inspection is expected. If it isn't required it should be scrapped if it is, it should always be completed. Either way it is not the fault of OFSTED. That is like a chef complaining because the EHO demand to see completed temperature checks. They're required for a reason not for the EHO or OFSTED respectively.

Every profession I know has paperwork requirements.

The point is, it is expected to be completed AT ALL TIMES for the benefit of the inspectors. They demand it so that they can 'see continuous progress' (although, frustratingly, they often then don't check it). It has no use whatsoever apart from that. It does nothing to improve my teaching - in fact, given the vast amount of time it wastes, quite the reverse. So it is undoubtedly the fault of OFSTED, and I am at a loss to see your point.

Paperwork? I'm chair of a local charity helping people with mental health issues. We have copious amounts of paperwork to complete. It is a massive issue.

However we have to do it for our funders, staff, clients and trustees. It may appear tiresome or unnecessary, but at every point we have to be able to show we have taken every step to protect vulnerable people.

Paperwork is inescapable in a modern world.

Am I allowed to finish with donations welcome at www.growing-people.org.uk. ? (or message me for info)

Vanilla mail for you.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mind you, Bethesda's only got something like 100 staff, which is why there's such a gap between games.

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, aye, I've heard that. Good to see smaller studios (like CD Projekt Red) and independent ones are making some top quality games. Mind you, Bethesda's only got something like 100 staff, which is why there's such a gap between games.

Doesn't happen any more but some of the best games I ever played were written by just one person or just a handful and could be mainly credited to just one or two eg Roberta Williams and Sid Meier's early work.

kle4 said:

Floater said:

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Vikings was great tv.

Agreed.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, aye, I've heard that. Good to see smaller studios (like CD Projekt Red) and independent ones are making some top quality games. Mind you, Bethesda's only got something like 100 staff, which is why there's such a gap between games.

kle4 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mind you, Bethesda's only got something like 100 staff, which is why there's such a gap between games.

Really?! Blimey, that's some impressive work they put out then, even with the time between releases.

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

Interesting focus group and discussion on Carson:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/10/08/bloomberg_focus_group_undecided_nh_iowa_republicans_believe_ben_carson_can_be_president.html

If the Washington Beltway find it hard to grasp him, as they say, he's close to another planet for Europeans - he seems an inarticulate man with zero experience whose religion dominates his intellect. But he's of course highly skilled in his field and does seem a nice, polite chap, and perhaps politeness is a quality whose appeal we underestimate. Do our US experts think he actually has any chance at all?

Inarticulate with zero experience? He is a retired neurosurgeon with a degree from Yale, he is probably better qualified and brighter than most European leaders at the moment with the exception of maybe Merkel. I would not vote for him but he looks the best bet of the present GOP field and could certainly beat Hillary, Sanders or Biden, though luckily for the Democrats it still looks like they will pick Trump

kle4 said:

Razedabode said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, aye, I've heard that. Good to see smaller studios (like CD Projekt Red) and independent ones are making some top quality games. Mind you, Bethesda's only got something like 100 staff, which is why there's such a gap between games.

Agreed. The witcher 3 was bloody brilliant.

I'm part way through Witcher 2 - the jump in quality from the first one in all areas - design, narrative, etc - is quite stark, and from all reports it seems they've done better with each one.

Plato_Says said:

I've Vikings on my Watch List for Prime, have you seen Narcos on Netflix? It's a solid 9.5/10 and I'm a harsh critic.

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Floater said:

Plato_Says said:

I've Vikings on my Watch List for Prime, have you seen Narcos on Netflix? It's a solid 9.5/10 and I'm a harsh critic.

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Narcos is on my "to do" list

Outlander (series not film) on Amazon prime is in my opinion stunning tv. The best I have seen bar none.

Feels a bit weird saying that as it's not my usual viewing :-)

Can't wait for series two.

Speedy said:

NickPalmer said:

Interesting focus group and discussion on Carson:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/10/08/bloomberg_focus_group_undecided_nh_iowa_republicans_believe_ben_carson_can_be_president.html

If the Washington Beltway find it hard to grasp him, as they say, he's close to another planet for Europeans - he seems an inarticulate man with zero experience whose religion dominates his intellect. But he's of course highly skilled in his field and does seem a nice, polite chap, and perhaps politeness is a quality whose appeal we underestimate. Do our US experts think he actually has any chance at all?

I actually give him a 45% chance of getting the nomination, with Trump also getting 45%.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-still-leads-carson-in-second/

"Most Republican primary voters give Trump, Carson, and Fiorina high marks on many of these candidate qualities, but Ben Carson is perceived as the most honest: Eight-one percent think he is honest and trustworthy, compared to 60 percent for Fiorina and 53 percent for Trump. Thirty-nine percent do not think Trump is honest and trustworthy, far more than either Carson or Fiorina.

Ben Carson is also seen as the candidate who most cares about people like them. Fifty-six percent think he cares a lot, more than twice as many as say the same for Trump or Fiorina.

But Donald Trump is seen as the strongest leader: Eighty-four percent think Trump has strong qualities of leadership, compared to 72 percent for Carson and 60 percent for Fiorina.

Most think both Trump (59 percent) and Carson (53 percent) have the right kind of experience to be president, though they are less sure of Fiorina (43 percent)."

Meanwhile the bookies favourite:

"Former Governor Jeb Bush is now viewed more unfavorably (38 percent) than favorably (32 percent) by Republican primary voters.

While the favorable ratings of both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have risen slightly since August among Republican primary voters, Bush's favorable rating has dropped 11 points."

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, aye, I've heard that. Good to see smaller studios (like CD Projekt Red) and independent ones are making some top quality games. Mind you, Bethesda's only got something like 100 staff, which is why there's such a gap between games.

Floater said:

Plato_Says said:

I've Vikings on my Watch List for Prime, have you seen Narcos on Netflix? It's a solid 9.5/10 and I'm a harsh critic.

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Narcos is on my "to do" list

Outlander (series not film) on Amazon prime is in my opinion stunning tv. The best I have seen bar none.

Feels a bit weird saying that as it's not my usual viewing :-)

Can't wait for series two.

Plato_Says said:

I've added Outlander based on your recommendation.

When Mr Robot turns up - watch it. Very solid 9/10.

Fargo S2 is on C4 next week - I loved S1 - let's see how S2 works out. It can't be more disappointing than True Detective 2.

Dair said:

Floater said:

Plato_Says said:

I've Vikings on my Watch List for Prime, have you seen Narcos on Netflix? It's a solid 9.5/10 and I'm a harsh critic.

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Narcos is on my "to do" list

Outlander (series not film) on Amazon prime is in my opinion stunning tv. The best I have seen bar none.

Feels a bit weird saying that as it's not my usual viewing :-)

Can't wait for series two.

If you have not yet seen it, Mr Robot is the best show this year (new or returning). It is quite phenomenal television.

Plato_Says said:

I love Mr Robot, but thought it got a bit lost around E7, then recovered. E1 is just perfectly perfect - watched it 5x.

Good Wife fall season looking strong, ditto Homeland. Not impressed by Vampire Diaries E1 S6 but love all the rest so hoping for better things. Continuum next half of season is pretty good, Lost Girl final half okay, have Haven fall to watch next.

Dair said:

Floater said:

Plato_Says said:

I've Vikings on my Watch List for Prime, have you seen Narcos on Netflix? It's a solid 9.5/10 and I'm a harsh critic.

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Narcos is on my "to do" list

Outlander (series not film) on Amazon prime is in my opinion stunning tv. The best I have seen bar none.

Feels a bit weird saying that as it's not my usual viewing :-)

Can't wait for series two.

If you have not yet seen it, Mr Robot is the best show this year (new or returning). It is quite phenomenal television.

Morris_Dancer said:

What is the meaning of Outlander?

kle4 said:

Plato_Says said:

I love Mr Robot, but thought it got a bit lost around E7, then recovered. E1 is just perfectly perfect - watched it 5x.

Good Wife fall season looking strong, ditto Homeland. Not impressed by Vampire Diaries E1 S6 but love all the rest so hoping for better things. Continuum next half of season is pretty good, Lost Girl final half okay, have Haven fall to watch next.

Dair said:

Floater said:

Plato_Says said:

I've Vikings on my Watch List for Prime, have you seen Narcos on Netflix? It's a solid 9.5/10 and I'm a harsh critic.

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Narcos is on my "to do" list

Outlander (series not film) on Amazon prime is in my opinion stunning tv. The best I have seen bar none.

Feels a bit weird saying that as it's not my usual viewing :-)

Can't wait for series two.

If you have not yet seen it, Mr Robot is the best show this year (new or returning). It is quite phenomenal television.

It's a travesty Continuum will end its run with barely 40 episodes. Tremendous TV.

Oh right, politics - With both not super well known yet, I'm surprised the likability of the two mayoral candidates is pretty close.

Morris_Dancer said:

What is the meaning of Outlander?

Pretty sure it's just a play on the main character being doubly an outsider - in time as being from the 40s sent back to the 18th century, and as an Englishwoman finding herself amidst the Scots. I'd never heard the word Sassanach before.

Plato_Says said:

I think Continuum didn't think ahead to S5 so have lost the plot.

kle4 said:

Plato_Says said:

I love Mr Robot, but thought it got a bit lost around E7, then recovered. E1 is just perfectly perfect - watched it 5x.

Good Wife fall season looking strong, ditto Homeland. Not impressed by Vampire Diaries E1 S6 but love all the rest so hoping for better things. Continuum next half of season is pretty good, Lost Girl final half okay, have Haven fall to watch next.

Dair said:

Floater said:

Plato_Says said:

I've Vikings on my Watch List for Prime, have you seen Narcos on Netflix? It's a solid 9.5/10 and I'm a harsh critic.

notme said:

OT:
Just watched the first two episodes of The Last Kingdom. Not a bad effort, but it looks poorly compared to the History Channels Vikings. As a stand alone show, its fairly good. It just looks like a poor mans Viking though.

Vikings is exceptional drama, considering it's History Channels first live drama, it has *substantially* higher production values than The Last Kingdom, which from the BBC, you would expect a bit of experienced polish.

Maybe its down to budget. Perhaps Vikings has had more money thrown at it.

Narcos is on my "to do" list

Outlander (series not film) on Amazon prime is in my opinion stunning tv. The best I have seen bar none.

Feels a bit weird saying that as it's not my usual viewing :-)

Can't wait for series two.

If you have not yet seen it, Mr Robot is the best show this year (new or returning). It is quite phenomenal television.

It's a travesty Continuum will end its run with barely 40 episodes. Tremendous TV.

Oh right, politics - With both not super well known yet, I'm surprised the likability of the two mayoral candidates is pretty close.

Morris_Dancer said:

What is the meaning of Outlander?

Pretty sure it's just a play on the main character being doubly an outsider - in time as being from the 40s sent back to the 18th century, and as an Englishwoman finding herself amidst the Scots. I'd never heard the word Sassanach before.

MikeK said:

Is the government going barmy with 5.5 year dementia?

I really have no idea if these are accurate orders given to the RAF, but the whole whole scene seems demented.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/raf-given-green-light-shoot-down-hostile-russian-jets-syria-1523488