politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farron’s speech was pretty well received but what a mountai

2nd like jc

No. Make up more appropriate names.

Lord Mandelbrot.

Portmanteau Politicians:

Tim Fallon - LibDem Defence Secretary and MP for Westmorland

Michael Farron - Tory leader and MP for Sevenoaks.

Slackbladder said:

Well i guess it's a good lib dem speech for lib dems, problem is thats only about 10-15% of the population at it's max.

I think if they could manage that amount again within 10 years they would be very happy indeed - ambition has probably be tempered.

JEO said:

How does someone "sensible" and "grown up" still think it's a good idea to take refugees that have crossed the Med rather than from the camps, after everything that has happened since Merkel's annoucement?

You'd have to be more concerned with pleasing European Union stakeholders than actually helping people or reducing casualties... oh wait, it's the Lib Dems. That explains it.

People who claim to be refugees. As the Germans and others are now finding out, a lot of them aren't refugees.

The one plan the EU should be thinking about is how to deport those who do not have a claim for asylum. People might be less fussed about letting in and welcoming genuine asylum seekers if they saw real evidence that those who don't qualify get turned back or deported to their home countries.

FPT: More info on the new University of Central Lancashire Medical School is here:

http://www.uclan.ac.uk/news/new_medical_degree.php

They are hoping to get GMC approval in due course. Presumably they then could take UK students.

The LibDems' big problem is going to be getting heard at all. It's going to be a tough job rebuilding. The only short cut would be to attract a chunk of Labour defectors but that's a chicken-and-egg problem.

Nice core vote speech...shame the core vote is only 5% or so

ofc the LibDems have a massive opportunity. The trouble equally obviously is their paucity of MPs and "start up" nature of their organisation.

Although not a huge fan of his, I thought Vince did a good job on Pienaar of acknowledging the successes of coalition and paying tribute to the Cons for what they achieved.

Clegg, meanwhile, with his "as per usual, the Cons blame me for their failures but fail to acknowledge my successes" just sounded bitter and in denial. I had always been a fan of his but evidently he has been scarred.

The LDs now have an opportunity to repeat, almost word-for-word, some reasonably but now jettisoned Lab policies about public oversight (if not ownership) of various elements in society, a caring capitalism and so forth (sadly by leading on housing he simply falls in with the rest, although we all acknowledge it is a huge issue).

I thought UKIP also had that opportunity but, with Nige's flip-flops, they seem to have spunked it away.

Oh and sorry to have missed the last thread. My contribution would have been:

Damian McBride is a c**t.

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

Well he wont attract any ex BNPers , they have moved en block to UKIP ! Rather squeezes the LD's !

rcs1000 said:

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

Yes, but even before that he needs to stabilise the support of those who have remained faithful. Stabilise the core, and build out from there. Makes good sense, and his speech seems well-judged from that point of view.

Dair is certainly right about Euan McColm, who is as miserable as it gets in a generally poor quality Scottish press corps. I seldom come across his stuff these days since I gave up on Scotland on Sunday during the referendum after 10 years as a subsriber. He was one of the many reasons.

Occasionally BBC Scotland have him on the radio which he would be well advised to saty off given that stringing a coherent sentence together seems a big challange.

On tuition fees I think the SNP have the rights of it given that a record number of Scottish students are at University this year not just degree level students in Scotland which is also at a record. Difficult to substantiate argument that people are being generally deprived of places against that simple statistic. Also to be considered is the fact that the students' loan system seems to be collapsing south of the border.

MarqueeMark said:

fpt - made up words. My own is for those long horizontal escalators at airports. I call them lazyators.

'kneesavers'

MattW said:

No. Make up more appropriate names.

Lord Mandelbrot.

That just made me think of 'Julia Sett'. A very complex but beautiful lady

A leader who isn't for gay marriage is quite an oddity. I've no idea what space in a political Venn diagram LDs occupy right now.

EDIT @Charles mentioned one of his favourite words velleity. To want something to happen, but not actually be bothered enough to actually do something about it. That sums up my opinion of them right now.

Sean_F said:

runnymede said:

Nice core vote speech...shame the core vote is only 5% or so

One can identify a Labour core vote; a Conservative core vote; even a UKIP core vote. But, I don't know what group can now be said to constitute the Lib Dem core vote.

Tykejohnno said:

Britain MUST take thousands of refugees from Europe, says Lib Dem Tim Farron in attack on Cameron's 'pitiful' response

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3246142/Britain-thousands-refugees-Europe-says-Lib-Dem-Tim-Farron-attack-Cameron-s-pitiful-response.html#comments

The man is a clown.

My mum called him "a clown" when we were watching the news at the weekend

blackburn63 said:

UKIP conference soon, I'm interested to hear the tone

Tones - one from Carswell, one from Farage.

kle4 said:

Slackbladder said:

Well i guess it's a good lib dem speech for lib dems, problem is thats only about 10-15% of the population at it's max.

I think if they could manage that amount again within 10 years they would be very happy indeed - ambition has probably be tempered.

For the next election, the lib dems shoudl have 3 aims

1) Keep the seats they have
2) Replace 2/3 of the current MPs base with woman/ethinic minority faces (more the women than the EM)
3) At a max win another 1 or two seats.

I think that if you offered that now to Farron, he would more than delighted to take that.

logical_song said:

blackburn63 said:

UKIP conference soon, I'm interested to hear the tone

Tones - one from Carswell, one from Farage.

Two-tone at the UKIP conference? Bunch of rude boys.

The Bloomberg poll out today is the first I've seen where Hillary's lead nationally is below the 10% mark.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Slackbladder said:

kle4 said:

Slackbladder said:

Well i guess it's a good lib dem speech for lib dems, problem is thats only about 10-15% of the population at it's max.

I think if they could manage that amount again within 10 years they would be very happy indeed - ambition has probably be tempered.

For the next election, the lib dems shoudl have 3 aims

1) Keep the seats they have
2) Replace 2/3 of the current MPs base with woman/ethinic minority faces (more the women than the EM)
3) At a max win another 1 or two seats.

I think that if you offered that now to Farron, he would more than delighted to take that.

I think the LDs might win one or two of the SW London seats; Corbyn is not an attractive leader to the Red Liberals of leafy West London, and Heathrow could be a big issue in 2020. Finally, the "anti-Cable" vote won't be there.

They may also pick up Cambridge; it's a Lib/Lab marginal and it doesn't feel Corbyn friendly to me. (The Libs may also pick a few tactical Tory votes given Corbybn...)

DaemonBarber said:

regarding made up words, surely none can better the Blackadder:

"Allow me to be the first to offer Dr. Johnson my most sincere contrafibularities! I am anaspeptic, frasmotic, even compunctuous to have caused him such pericombobulation."

Samuel Johnson: Not only have you impeculiated my dictionary, you have also lost the chance to act as patron to the only book in the world that is even better!

Blackadder: Oh. And what is that, sir? "Dictionary 2: The Return of the Killer Dictionary"?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

fpt - made up words. My own is for those long horizontal escalators at airports. I call them lazyators.

Sadly a word for them already exists: Travelators

Way more prosaic in American English - 'moving walkways'

I like the Irish for 'sleeping policeman' - 'traffic calmer' - but the English is better (and far better than the US 'speed bumps')

JEO said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

The problem is that this was exactly the approach Clegg tried by being the party of the EU, including the Farage debate. It was a miserable failure of a strategy then too. The problem is that while there is a substantial minority who are pro-EU and pro-open borders, they either do not care enough to base their vote on the matter, already vote Lib Dem, or demand such ideological purity they will get offended and vote Green over some other transgression.

This may fall into your first option but they also may want to have their vote counted rather than wasted so will vote either Conservative or Labour accordingly.

The boon the Liberals had for most of the last twenty odd years is that they were everything to everyone so anti Tory voters felt safe going for them as did anti Labour voters.

The problem this time is their strength became their weakness. Instead of being a vote against your opponents a vote for the Liberals is basically a glorified abstention. So anti Tory voters were lost because of the coalition but equally anti Labour (and even English anti SNP) voters felt a Liberal vote was too risky as they'd be ok jumping into bed with anyone.

The Liberals need to define what they're FOR rather than being against but there's no evidence there's ever been a market for that.

Plato_Says said:

I saw about 5-7 mins and he struck me as a bit of end-of-the-peer youth performer. And standing on rather a lot of ground occupied by Corbynistas.

Sorry, I don't take him seriously - I find him rather too keen on being the *personality* rather than the deliverer of a message and that detracts from what he's saying. Farage does cheeky chappy well, Farron doesn't look old enough despite his chronological age.

They both come across as somewhat Archie Rice to me.

If they pull this off there won't be a dry Japanese eye in the house.

perdix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

Frau Merkel is responsible for the migration fiasco. Her words implied virtually no limits even if that's not what she intended. No reason why the UK should make extraordinary efforts to help clear up the mess.
With Germany basically leading the EU, the implication is that any bad decisions by Germany will have to be absorbed by other members.

Hungary and Slovakia are proving that - whatever QMV says - Germany cannot force others to do things against their will.

This could play out one of several ways: it could mark the beginning of the end of the EU, or it could create a genuine core of European countries (maybe led by us), who work together for a different kind of EU.

MikeK said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MikeK said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The LibDems' big problem is going to be getting heard at all. It's going to be a tough job rebuilding. The only short cut would be to attract a chunk of Labour defectors but that's a chicken-and-egg problem.

But the L/Dems did get a hearing at their conference this week by the MSM and PB. Will UKIP get the same consideration from PB and MSM when their conference begins tomorrow?

Maybe you could fill us in from time to time?

I won't be attending this year. I didn't fancy travelling to Doncaster, never did like the place.
From what you write, Sunil, you also think that UKIP will get the silent treatment. Is that so?

Probably - honestly, I can't remember the last time Nigel appeared on the Telly.

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I suspect Dave will go for the nuclear option and appoint 300 Tory life peers.

Good luck TSE!

Thanks, I've just read Lord Sewel won't be charged with anything

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34328196

This forum does not work very well on an ipad mini. Any solutions for ipad

hucks67 said:

This forum does not work very well on an ipad mini. Any solutions for ipad

Are you viewing it on safari? 'Cause safari sucks.

Download/use chrome instead

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

A 4% swing would pick up all of 11 seats. Except it won't, because of first time incumbency and/or boundary changes.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/lib-dem-targets/

Edit: not that it's the wrong strategy; just to note how utterly fecked they are

The first problem they have is hanging on to the seats they have in the boundary review:

Leeds NW is a complete goner - it needs at least 13k votes added. Neither of the neighbouring seats Leeds NE or Pudsey have many LDs so this will be flipped to Lab if it isn't broken up (Leeds has large wards so will have big boundary changes)

Southport needs about 10k votes added and has to take Tory voting Formby which should flip it to Con (although it might still be winnable if they can target tactical Lab voters)

Carshalton looks very dicey. Both Sutton seats are too small while the Croydon seats are too big suggesting these boroughs will be paired. This likely means Carshalton losing a ward or 2 to Sutton and gaining some wards from either Croydon S or Central. This means it is likely to be flipped to Con as LDs have always been weak in Croydon.

Ceridigion - needs about 20-25k voters added (as Welsh over-representation is being ended). Most likely it will end up adding The Preseli hills part of Pembrokeshire. The LDs are weak here but so are Plaid. Most likely the LDs will just hang on but this becomes more of a 3 or 4 way marginal with Lab and Con added to the mix

North Norfolk needs about 6k voters adding. These are likely to come from the North Norfolk district wards in the Broadland seat where the LDs are quite weak. I think this will reduce Lamb's majority to about 1.5k

Westmorland needs about 10k voters adding. My best guess is it will expand towards Keswick maybe knocking 2k off Farron's majority but still leaving him comfortably placed.

Sheffield Hallam - is about the right size so is likely to be left alone

Orkney - as a special area will not see any boundary changes but the LDs have other problems here

Why do people become such knobs on twitter or is it more twitter is a megaphone for idiots that didn't exist before?

Teenage Milifandom leader Abby Tomlinson reports Twitter troll who said 'you're gonna get raped'

http://bit.ly/1LNOZXb

rcs1000 said:

perdix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

Frau Merkel is responsible for the migration fiasco. Her words implied virtually no limits even if that's not what she intended. No reason why the UK should make extraordinary efforts to help clear up the mess.
With Germany basically leading the EU, the implication is that any bad decisions by Germany will have to be absorbed by other members.

Hungary and Slovakia are proving that - whatever QMV says - Germany cannot force others to do things against their will.

This could play out one of several ways: it could mark the beginning of the end of the EU, or it could create a genuine core of European countries (maybe led by us), who work together for a different kind of EU.

Or it plays out as recent history shows that the poor nations do whatever Germany says. Ultimately Germany is threatening to cut funding to nations that don't accept the migration as voted on and all the nations that are against this are recipients.

That's the problem. He who pays the piper calls the tune and Germany pay. The difference is that we pay too so want our own tune but are left out on our own.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why do people become such knobs on twitter or is it more twitter is a megaphone for idiots that didn't exist before?

Teenage Milifandom leader Abby Tomlinson reports Twitter troll who said 'you're gonna get raped'

http://bit.ly/1LNOZXb

"Too many Tweets make a Tw*t!"

Being one of the few net contributors has given us an almost unique position. We don't approve and will put our money where our mouth is. The rest are beholden in a rather unhealthy way.

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

perdix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

Frau Merkel is responsible for the migration fiasco. Her words implied virtually no limits even if that's not what she intended. No reason why the UK should make extraordinary efforts to help clear up the mess.
With Germany basically leading the EU, the implication is that any bad decisions by Germany will have to be absorbed by other members.

Hungary and Slovakia are proving that - whatever QMV says - Germany cannot force others to do things against their will.

This could play out one of several ways: it could mark the beginning of the end of the EU, or it could create a genuine core of European countries (maybe led by us), who work together for a different kind of EU.

Or it plays out as recent history shows that the poor nations do whatever Germany says. Ultimately Germany is threatening to cut funding to nations that don't accept the migration as voted on and all the nations that are against this are recipients.

That's the problem. He who pays the piper calls the tune and Germany pay. The difference is that we pay too so want our own tune but are left out on our own.

Is the ref's grandmother Scottish?

Great summary - are any incumbents likely to retire?

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Tissue_Price said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

snip

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

A 4% swing would pick up all of 11 seats. Except it won't, because of first time incumbency and/or boundary changes.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/lib-dem-targets/

Edit: not that it's the wrong strategy; just to note how utterly fecked they are

The first problem they have is hanging on to the seats they have in the boundary review:

Leeds NW is a complete goner - it needs at least 13k votes added. Neither of the neighbouring seats Leeds NE or Pudsey have many LDs so this will be flipped to Lab if it isn't broken up (Leeds has large wards so will have big boundary changes)

Southport needs about 10k votes added and has to take Tory voting Formby which should flip it to Con (although it might still be winnable if they can target tactical Lab voters)

Carshalton looks very dicey. Both Sutton seats are too small while the Croydon seats are too big suggesting these boroughs will be paired. This likely means Carshalton losing a ward or 2 to Sutton and gaining some wards from either Croydon S or Central. This means it is likely to be flipped to Con as LDs have always been weak in Croydon.

Ceridigion - needs about 20-25k voters added (as Welsh over-representation is being ended). Most likely it will end up adding The Preseli hills part of Pembrokeshire. The LDs are weak here but so are Plaid. Most likely the LDs will just hang on but this becomes more of a 3 or 4 way marginal with Lab and Con added to the mix

North Norfolk needs about 6k voters adding. These are likely to come from the North Norfolk district wards in the Broadland seat where the LDs are quite weak. I think this will reduce Lamb's majority to about 1.5k

Westmorland needs about 10k voters adding. My best guess is it will expand towards Keswick maybe knocking 2k off Farron's majority but still leaving him comfortably placed.

Sheffield Hallam - is about the right size so is likely to be left alone

Orkney - as a special area will not see any boundary changes but the LDs have other problems here

For all the jokes about cricket being hard to understand, Rugby Union must have the most impenetrable rules of almost all ball games.

Great try saving tackle at the death of the half, there.

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

perdix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

An interesting series of three tweets by Rafael Behr:

Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live

I think that's right. Farron is not aiming for 25% or even 18%. He is seeing if he can take the LibDems from 8% to 12%. His actions need to be seen in that light.

Frau Merkel is responsible for the migration fiasco. Her words implied virtually no limits even if that's not what she intended. No reason why the UK should make extraordinary efforts to help clear up the mess.
With Germany basically leading the EU, the implication is that any bad decisions by Germany will have to be absorbed by other members.

Hungary and Slovakia are proving that - whatever QMV says - Germany cannot force others to do things against their will.

This could play out one of several ways: it could mark the beginning of the end of the EU, or it could create a genuine core of European countries (maybe led by us), who work together for a different kind of EU.

Or it plays out as recent history shows that the poor nations do whatever Germany says. Ultimately Germany is threatening to cut funding to nations that don't accept the migration as voted on and all the nations that are against this are recipients.

That's the problem. He who pays the piper calls the tune and Germany pay. The difference is that we pay too so want our own tune but are left out on our own.

Fewer and fewer reasons to stay in

Has Clegg given any indication as to whether he'll stay on in 2020? I can't see why he'd want to frankly.

As you're about - do you have any idea what caused my @Plato account to stop working properly? It seemed to happen after I posted a linked tweet.

I'd like to go back to it just for simplicity if it's possible. No probs if not.

rcs1000 said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The first problem they have is hanging on to the seats they have in the boundary review:

Leeds NW is a complete goner - it needs at least 13k votes added. Neither of the neighbouring seats Leeds NE or Pudsey have many LDs so this will be flipped to Lab if it isn't broken up (Leeds has large wards so will have big boundary changes)

Southport needs about 10k votes added and has to take Tory voting Formby which should flip it to Con (although it might still be winnable if they can target tactical Lab voters)

Carshalton looks very dicey. Both Sutton seats are too small while the Croydon seats are too big suggesting these boroughs will be paired. This likely means Carshalton losing a ward or 2 to Sutton and gaining some wards from either Croydon S or Central. This means it is likely to be flipped to Con as LDs have always been weak in Croydon.

Ceridigion - needs about 20-25k voters added (as Welsh over-representation is being ended). Most likely it will end up adding The Preseli hills part of Pembrokeshire. The LDs are weak here but so are Plaid. Most likely the LDs will just hang on but this becomes more of a 3 or 4 way marginal with Lab and Con added to the mix

North Norfolk needs about 6k voters adding. These are likely to come from the North Norfolk district wards in the Broadland seat where the LDs are quite weak. I think this will reduce Lamb's majority to about 1.5k

Westmorland needs about 10k voters adding. My best guess is it will expand towards Keswick maybe knocking 2k off Farron's majority but still leaving him comfortably placed.

Sheffield Hallam - is about the right size so is likely to be left alone

Orkney - as a special area will not see any boundary changes but the LDs have other problems here

Thanks for this; very interesting. I suspect that the unique circumstances of Heathrow expansion mean they will hold Carshalton - but we do need to think of the LDs are starting on say 5 or 6 seats in 2015 and not 8.

rcs1000 said:

Thanks for this; very interesting. I suspect that the unique circumstances of Heathrow expansion mean they will hold Carshalton - but we do need to think of the LDs are starting on say 5 or 6 seats in 2015 and not 8.

The only other possibility is that they could (theoretically at least) gain a seat in the boundary review. If (for example) Yeovil or Wells takes the most Lib Dem voting parts of Somerton and Frome. Only really going to be one of the Somerset seats where they might pick one up though that I can see.

Good point. Thanx.

Lennon said:

Plato_Says said:

I'm amazed he's still an MP and not a eurocrat - does anyone know why? He seems ideally suited it and would fit right in.

Philip_Thompson said:

Has Clegg given any indication as to whether he'll stay on in 2020? I can't see why he'd want to frankly.

My understanding is that he would, but doesn't want to lose the Lib Dems a seat (which is likely in a by-election scenario)