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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farron’s speech was pretty well received but what a mountai
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farron’s speech was pretty well received but what a mountain his party has to climb
I think that's as good as speech as I've ever heard from a Lib Dem leader. Passionate, personal and grown up where it needed to be.
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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Birmingham_New_Street_2015_v_2009.png Honestly, I think London St Pancras International is the benchmark for both original Victorian architecture and refurbished 21st cen. structure.
The top floor of New Street (the oddly named "Grand Central" shopping centre) doesn't open until tomorrow.
You'd have to be more concerned with pleasing European Union stakeholders than actually helping people or reducing casualties... oh wait, it's the Lib Dems. That explains it.
Lord Mandelbrot.
Tim Fallon - LibDem Defence Secretary and MP for Westmorland
Michael Farron - Tory leader and MP for Sevenoaks.
The irony is that Student Fees are the worst kind of hard left Socialism. That driven purely and solely by the politics of Envy. Where you identify a social or financial advantage that an individual has and then tax the living crap out of it.
Because there is nothing contributory about Student Fees, they are purely and simply a tax on hard work, success and intellect. The worst kind of Socialism, focused on the aspirational and the striving.
The one plan the EU should be thinking about is how to deport those who do not have a claim for asylum. People might be less fussed about letting in and welcoming genuine asylum seekers if they saw real evidence that those who don't qualify get turned back or deported to their home countries.
http://www.uclan.ac.uk/news/new_medical_degree.php
They are hoping to get GMC approval in due course. Presumably they then could take UK students.
http://www.cityam.com/224965/say-what-liberal-democrat-councillor-jennifer-churchill-defects-jeremy-corbyns-labour
Although not a huge fan of his, I thought Vince did a good job on Pienaar of acknowledging the successes of coalition and paying tribute to the Cons for what they achieved.
Clegg, meanwhile, with his "as per usual, the Cons blame me for their failures but fail to acknowledge my successes" just sounded bitter and in denial. I had always been a fan of his but evidently he has been scarred.
The LDs now have an opportunity to repeat, almost word-for-word, some reasonably but now jettisoned Lab policies about public oversight (if not ownership) of various elements in society, a caring capitalism and so forth (sadly by leading on housing he simply falls in with the rest, although we all acknowledge it is a huge issue).
I thought UKIP also had that opportunity but, with Nige's flip-flops, they seem to have spunked it away.
Oh and sorry to have missed the last thread. My contribution would have been:
Damian McBride is a c**t.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3246142/Britain-thousands-refugees-Europe-says-Lib-Dem-Tim-Farron-attack-Cameron-s-pitiful-response.html#comments
The man is a clown.
First used when, based on the inexperience of youth, I jumped into the back of a convertible that had been parked outside my uncle's house in greece for most of the day
Criticism of Farron migration line based on distance from mainstream public opinion mistakes his strategy. He's pitching to people who feel like dissenters from mainstream on liberal issues like this. If Daily Mail does double-page spread attacking him as open-door, bleeding-heart, foreigner-loving softie, that's a comms win in his eyes.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/23/tim-farrons-speech-to-the-lib-dem-conference-politics-live
How many has Farron taken into his own home? I'll take a guess. Zero.
Although apparently the new Midland Main Line station at St Pancras (built to replace the shed now used by Eurostars) is starting to have capacity problems as they did not build enough platforms.
If true, this should really influence thinking about HS2 and Euston.
As an aside, I see the pictures of the new New Street and wonder how well it will age and weather. Strangely, I don't get the same feeling about the new Kings Cross concourse.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/lib-dem-targets/
Edit: not that it's the wrong strategy; just to note how utterly fecked they are
Well he wont attract any ex BNPers , they have moved en block to UKIP ! Rather squeezes the LD's !
Dair is certainly right about Euan McColm, who is as miserable as it gets in a generally poor quality Scottish press corps. I seldom come across his stuff these days since I gave up on Scotland on Sunday during the referendum after 10 years as a subsriber. He was one of the many reasons.
Occasionally BBC Scotland have him on the radio which he would be well advised to saty off given that stringing a coherent sentence together seems a big challange.
On tuition fees I think the SNP have the rights of it given that a record number of Scottish students are at University this year not just degree level students in Scotland which is also at a record. Difficult to substantiate argument that people are being generally deprived of places against that simple statistic. Also to be considered is the fact that the students' loan system seems to be collapsing south of the border.
Sorry, I don't take him seriously - I find him rather too keen on being the *personality* rather than the deliverer of a message and that detracts from what he's saying. Farage does cheeky chappy well, Farron doesn't look old enough despite his chronological age.
Though the Doric arch is commemorated on the Victoria line platforms:
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8446/8018632856_21105236b2_m.jpg
EDIT @Charles mentioned one of his favourite words velleity. To want something to happen, but not actually be bothered enough to actually do something about it. That sums up my opinion of them right now.
One of the pieces I half wrote was how Tim Farron would be cursing Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless and why Jeremy Corbyn would be praising those two.
Their precedent makes it very difficult for people to defect now.
Back in the 90s we had Tories defecting to the Lib Dems, we won't see that this time around I suspect so the Lib Dems have to make some sort of impact, which is why they are going to be pains in the arse in the House of Lords.
I suspect Dave will go for the nuclear option and appoint 300 Tory life peers.
"Allow me to be the first to offer Dr. Johnson my most sincere contrafibularities! I am anaspeptic, frasmotic, even compunctuous to have caused him such pericombobulation."
1) Keep the seats they have
2) Replace 2/3 of the current MPs base with woman/ethinic minority faces (more the women than the EM)
3) At a max win another 1 or two seats.
I think that if you offered that now to Farron, he would more than delighted to take that.
(I'll get me coat)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
They may also pick up Cambridge; it's a Lib/Lab marginal and it doesn't feel Corbyn friendly to me. (The Libs may also pick a few tactical Tory votes given Corbybn...)
Blackadder: Oh. And what is that, sir? "Dictionary 2: The Return of the Killer Dictionary"?
From what you write, Sunil, you also think that UKIP will get the silent treatment. Is that so?
I like the Irish for 'sleeping policeman' - 'traffic calmer' - but the English is better (and far better than the US 'speed bumps')
The boon the Liberals had for most of the last twenty odd years is that they were everything to everyone so anti Tory voters felt safe going for them as did anti Labour voters.
The problem this time is their strength became their weakness. Instead of being a vote against your opponents a vote for the Liberals is basically a glorified abstention. So anti Tory voters were lost because of the coalition but equally anti Labour (and even English anti SNP) voters felt a Liberal vote was too risky as they'd be ok jumping into bed with anyone.
The Liberals need to define what they're FOR rather than being against but there's no evidence there's ever been a market for that.
Great Cartoon, but can that really be Merkel, much too young looking.
Scotland 6 - 7 Japan
With Germany basically leading the EU, the implication is that any bad decisions by Germany will have to be absorbed by other members.
This could play out one of several ways: it could mark the beginning of the end of the EU, or it could create a genuine core of European countries (maybe led by us), who work together for a different kind of EU.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34328196
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/637020695478824960
@PPCMaccUKIP: @DouglasCarswell would cheerfully vote for a motion to allow a quota of refugees. Most are economic migrants Carswell does not represent me.
@PPCMaccUKIP: @Eastwood1A1 Not sure what you are talking about have you been drinking? Carswell sounds like a tory, looks like a tory because he is a tory
Download/use chrome instead
That's not what liberalism is. Liberalism is believing in free speech, democratic governance, the rule of law, the free press and free markets. When was the last time we heard the Liberal Democrats stand up against encroachments against any of those?
I'm not really betting on this world cup like I did on the soccer world cup, bar laying England and backing Ireland and Wales.
Leeds NW is a complete goner - it needs at least 13k votes added. Neither of the neighbouring seats Leeds NE or Pudsey have many LDs so this will be flipped to Lab if it isn't broken up (Leeds has large wards so will have big boundary changes)
Southport needs about 10k votes added and has to take Tory voting Formby which should flip it to Con (although it might still be winnable if they can target tactical Lab voters)
Carshalton looks very dicey. Both Sutton seats are too small while the Croydon seats are too big suggesting these boroughs will be paired. This likely means Carshalton losing a ward or 2 to Sutton and gaining some wards from either Croydon S or Central. This means it is likely to be flipped to Con as LDs have always been weak in Croydon.
Ceridigion - needs about 20-25k voters added (as Welsh over-representation is being ended). Most likely it will end up adding The Preseli hills part of Pembrokeshire. The LDs are weak here but so are Plaid. Most likely the LDs will just hang on but this becomes more of a 3 or 4 way marginal with Lab and Con added to the mix
North Norfolk needs about 6k voters adding. These are likely to come from the North Norfolk district wards in the Broadland seat where the LDs are quite weak. I think this will reduce Lamb's majority to about 1.5k
Westmorland needs about 10k voters adding. My best guess is it will expand towards Keswick maybe knocking 2k off Farron's majority but still leaving him comfortably placed.
Sheffield Hallam - is about the right size so is likely to be left alone
Orkney - as a special area will not see any boundary changes but the LDs have other problems here
Teenage Milifandom leader Abby Tomlinson reports Twitter troll who said 'you're gonna get raped'
http://bit.ly/1LNOZXb
That's the problem. He who pays the piper calls the tune and Germany pay. The difference is that we pay too so want our own tune but are left out on our own.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussions/p1
... what, my coat?
Great try saving tackle at the death of the half, there.
I'd like to go back to it just for simplicity if it's possible. No probs if not.