politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 18th 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 18th 2013
Flintshire (created out of the remains of Clwyd along with Denbighshire and Wrexham) has always been a strongly Labour area (even during the worse times for Labour). This was demonstrated at the 1983 general election when Alyn and Deeside (made up of the old Flint East constituency) returned a Labour MP despite Delyn electing a Conservative MP.
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Good evening, everyone.
Rather sweltering and horrid here, frankly. Anyway, cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular by-election piece.0 -
Giovanni!0
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Yes, It's damn hot Mr. Dancer. Only one election tonight and its in Welshland. How long does it take to get rid of the slag in these Welsh valleys?0
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Mr. K, I don't know. Sadly I only have the most basic recollection of how a blast furnace works.
It'll be a little cooler at the weekend, but we'll have to wait about a week before the hot spell ends, apparently.0 -
Tut tut tim. Being swivel-eyed is a serious medical condition.tim said:MikeK said:Yes, It's damn hot Mr. Dancer. Only one election tonight and its in Welshland. How long does it take to get rid of the slag in these Welsh valleys?
I can see two by elections.
Are those UKIP application forms in extra large print?
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@antifrank
FPT
There once was a girl at the Money Shop
So wealthy they branded her a fop
Declined her at Wonga
Cos she was from Tonga
But she finally came out on top!0 -
It's very quiet tonight.
Next race up is Hungary, which is all about front end grip. Definitely not a place for differential front end grip.
It's hard to overtake, largely because it's badly designed. Lots of fairly high speed corners where aerodynamics dictate pace, meaning bad airflow prevents a chasing car from getting near to the one ahead. However, degradation of tyres and cunning strategy should enable some to make up ground, and others to lose it.-1 -
Net UK government approval - latest YouGov
London -17
Rest of South -17
Midlands/Wales -28
North -40
Scotland -62
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l1jcon3uxv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160713.pdf0 -
As ever, thanks to Mr Hayfield.
I met Mrs J for the first time in Sawston. I went for a job interview and there she was, looking lovely as she fiddled with the knobs on a signal generator. She certainly generated a signal in me. ;-)
It is a mixed area, with some very rich companies nearby (the Sanger Institute and Babraham Institutes). As in many areas of South Cambridgeshire, planned housing developments are a hot issue.0 -
Seems a bit weird to lump the Midlands in with Wales.0
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Stuart_Dickson said:
Net UK government approval - latest YouGov
London -17
Rest of South -17
Midlands/Wales -28
North -40
Scotland -62
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l1jcon3uxv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160713.pdf
Good lord ur even more boring than tim
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Just reading up various info on free schools and inspection-wise by % (v small free school sample thus far obv) is apparently almost identical pattern to all schools re outstanding/good/needs improvement/inadequate. Those doing less well are the ones not in 'failing school' areas. (Free schools overall have less FSM averages than schools in the areas where they're situated). The following round went through a more rigorous selection process so it may change once they're inspected.0
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I've just turned on the committee debate on the EU referendum bill. I wonder how many hours of it I'll be able to get through before I die from the boredom of tedious interventions.0
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Mr Scampi, can I suggest if you're bored by people posting about opinion polls (which is true of many sane people) then this might not be the best site for you.scampi said:Stuart_Dickson said:Net UK government approval - latest YouGov
London -17
Rest of South -17
Midlands/Wales -28
North -40
Scotland -62
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l1jcon3uxv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160713.pdf
Good lord ur even more boring than tim-1 -
Elizabeth, the UKIP candidate in Sawston, has worked hard. She actually manged to deliver to every house BEFORE the postal votes went in (this is v unusual for UKIP). She declined my offer of help for delivering any more, because she had only 1 leaflet, and saw no point in delivering 2 leaflets which were the same.0
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I thought the main advantage of Free Schools is that their classrooms are air condiditioned.Carola said:Just reading up various info on free schools and inspection-wise by % (v small free school sample thus far obv) is apparently almost identical pattern to all schools re outstanding/good/needs improvement/inadequate. Those doing less well are the ones not in 'failing school' areas. (Free schools overall have less FSM averages than schools in the areas where they're situated). The following round went through a more rigorous selection process so it may change once they're inspected.
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Agreed.Morris_Dancer said:Seems a bit weird to lump the Midlands in with Wales.
Mind you, Ipsos MORI lump in Scotland with the north of England in one of their breaks, which seems worse than useless. Interestingly, Ipsos MORI provide an England-only break too, which makes me wonder if the headline VI figures we all see bandied about all the time might not be slightly underestimating the level of Lib Dem support in England? See what I mean:
Headline VI figures (Great Britain):
Lab 40%
Con 29%
UKIP 12%
LD 10%
Grn 4%
SNP 3%
PC 1%
oth 1%
England-only VI figures:
Lab 41%
Con 29%
UKIP 12%
LD 12%
Grn 4%
oth 2%
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/jul2013polMon_Tables.PDF0 -
*fills in application form*AveryLP said:
I thought the main advantage of Free Schools is that they are air condiditioned.Carola said:Just reading up various info on free schools and inspection-wise by % (v small free school sample thus far obv) is apparently almost identical pattern to all schools re outstanding/good/needs improvement/inadequate. Those doing less well are the ones not in 'failing school' areas. (Free schools overall have less FSM averages than schools in the areas where they're situated). The following round went through a more rigorous selection process so it may change once they're inspected.
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Mr. Dickson, that also seems stupid.
Those England only figures surprise me. I'd expect Labour to decline a shade and UKIP to increase.0 -
Anyway, off to cool down (if possible). Night, all.0
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@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …0 -
corporeal said:
Mr Scampi, can I suggest if you're bored by people posting about opinion polls (which is true of many sane people) then this might not be the best site for you.scampi said:Stuart_Dickson said:Net UK government approval - latest YouGov
London -17
Rest of South -17
Midlands/Wales -28
North -40
Scotland -62
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l1jcon3uxv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160713.pdf
Good lord ur even more boring than tim
Polls are interesting its just Scotland which I find boring and posters who think the world revolves around it. As for the site it's the best of a bad bunch.
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Some forecasts for 2015, including updated Lebo & Norpoth...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdDNxZ3dVTENKUkdRdnFweWg2Z3NzREE&usp=sharing0 -
Indeed. In fact, it is the first time I can recall the level of Labour support being higher in England compared to the headline GB figure. Maybe all those commentators that hammer on about a post-independence England being under "permanent" Tory rule need to have a closer look at the reality of English voting behaviour.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, that also seems stupid.
Those England only figures surprise me. I'd expect Labour to decline a shade and UKIP to increase.
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If anyone saw Cameron's interview on Channel 4 his obfuscation amounted to lying. He looked like he'd been caught in a seedy Turkish hotel with Pamela Anderson. Why didn't he either admit he's been lobbied or deny it. No one would have cared either way.0
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Ah Tim - You know sfa about politics and you've racked up over 6000 posts. pots and kettles spring to mind. and so to bed.
Good lord ur even more boring than tim
I know you don't post anything about politics, so why are you commenting on a politics site?
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Fat chance.Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …0 -
Good evening all.
Well its wonderful weather outside, stock markets rising happily - PB'ers will note very well that I was predicting strength into late July - am still looking for one last final high around the 25th July, before the greatest crash of them all can begin in earnest. Hunchman doesn't just come on here as the market goes down as some PB'ers have alleged in the past! On the same day that Moody's upgrades the US credit rating, this happens:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/detroit-files-chapter-9-bankruptcy
Yes, once the 4th largest city in America c.1960, and the wealthiest city at that time on the back of the motor industry, has filed for bankruptcy.....if that can happen to Detroit, who else can fall that far from grace?
And this is the reality for the European car industry:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/european-car-sales-plunge-to-20-year-low.html
As always, we should expect what the (mainstream) economists don't:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/expect-what-economists-dont.html
I'm not really taking that much notice of opinion polls at the moment, they'll soon change once the ill winds blow in August, and the market commences a nasty decline - a good time for Farage to spend out of the spotlight, and come back refreshed in the autumn when events should be moving very much in the favour of UKIP / SNP. All the same, its been amusing to see just how much Mr Burnham and Labour have blotted their copybook on the NHS, not before time in my opinion!0 -
So, forecast Con lead of nearly 4% at UK GE 2015. Meaning PM Ed Miliband presumably?RodCrosby said:Some forecasts for 2015, including updated Lebo & Norpoth...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdDNxZ3dVTENKUkdRdnFweWg2Z3NzREE&usp=sharing
Rod, I note that Paddy Power are offering 11/2 on an early (2014) UK GE. I assume that that is ridiculously short, but just wondered how you rate the chances of the next UK GE not being in 2015?
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Stuart - Entirely due to the SNP. But, of course, the loss of Scotland would not have made any difference to who won the majority of English elections. The only elections where it would have made a difference were February 1974 where Heath would have won a majority as well as the popular vote (and judging by most letters to the Torygraph and comments on conservative home most right-wing Tories would have rather died than have had another term of Ted) and 1964 where Sir Alec Douglas-Home would have won a majority, and, irony of ironies, he was of course a Scot while Harold Wilson was English!0
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The 1950 and October 1974 elections would have been hung, but Labour would still have been the largest party in England. In 2010 Cameron would have won a majority with 297 seats to Labour's 191 and the LDs 430
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I don't think that one can blame the SNP for the English Labour Party being more successful than the Scottish Labour Party. Credit where credit is due: perhaps one might extend some small degree of credit to Nick Palmer & Co on a job well done. (And brickbats to Johann Lamont & Co.)HYUFD said:Stuart - Entirely due to the SNP. But, of course, the loss of Scotland would not have made any difference to who won the majority of English elections. The only elections where it would have made a difference were February 1974 where Heath would have won a majority as well as the popular vote (and judging by most letters to the Torygraph and comments on conservative home most right-wing Tories would have rather died than have had another term of Ted) and 1964 where Sir Alec Douglas-Home would have won a majority, and, irony of ironies, he was of course a Scot while Harold Wilson was English!
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Greetings from Hong Kong. It's just before dawn and already steamy hot. Thank God for air conditioning. It's probably a whole lot more comfortable here than back home. Very interesting chats here with folk about deficiencies in Chinese way of education in PRC, HK, Singapore etc. the kids are never taught to think for themselves, so being pro-active, showing initiative, being prepared to take responsibility, argue a point etc are rare traits. In the UK we need to be aware of the drawbacks of relentless examination, long hours in class, and regimented, blackboard-facing teaching. It produces excellent PISA results, but not necessarily a dynamic, multi-skilled workforce.0
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Stuart - Johann Lamont is actually more popular than Salmond in some polls, but the SNP has positioned itself to the left of Labour in Scotland, hence splitting the left vote in the same way UKIP is doing to the Tories down south!0
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"We All Pay Your Benefits" made for good TV.
Ipswich now has a Conservative MP. In the 1983 election, it remained Labour. I suppose that's as good an indication as any of how the country has polarised politically along geographical lines.0 -
The PM was sweating, in the middle of a record heat wave.
Clearly a bigger story than "man eats burger"
NewsSense™. All bollocks, all the time.0 -
You are taking on Goldman Sachs on your FTSE 100 prediction, hunchman. They are predicting an all time record of 7100 by year end.hunchman said:Good evening all.
Well its wonderful weather outside, stock markets rising happily - PB'ers will note very well that I was predicting strength into late July - am still looking for one last final high around the 25th July, before the greatest crash of them all can begin in earnest. Hunchman doesn't just come on here as the market goes down as some PB'ers have alleged in the past! On the same day that Moody's upgrades the US credit rating, this happens:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/detroit-files-chapter-9-bankruptcy
Yes, once the 4th largest city in America c.1960, and the wealthiest city at that time on the back of the motor industry, has filed for bankruptcy.....if that can happen to Detroit, who else can fall that far from grace?
And this is the reality for the European car industry:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/european-car-sales-plunge-to-20-year-low.html
As always, we should expect what the (mainstream) economists don't:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/expect-what-economists-dont.html
I'm not really taking that much notice of opinion polls at the moment, they'll soon change once the ill winds blow in August, and the market commences a nasty decline - a good time for Farage to spend out of the spotlight, and come back refreshed in the autumn when events should be moving very much in the favour of UKIP / SNP. All the same, its been amusing to see just how much Mr Burnham and Labour have blotted their copybook on the NHS, not before time in my opinion!
But the best story of all is France's decision to ban imports of (most of ) Mercedes new car ranges because they are using a Mobile Air Conditioning coolant which is proscribed by the EU.
The dispute is almost escalating to war with a division of Mercedes Taxis about to advance on Paris.
I predict a swift French surrender.
See http://www.just-auto.com/news/mercedes-benz_id136354.aspx for the battle plans.0 -
Got any suggestions for safe havens? Personally, I've been steadily squirrelling away capital in gold stocks for several months, but am now contemplating money market as I feel a tad over-exposed to gold now.hunchman said:Good evening all.
Well its wonderful weather outside, stock markets rising happily - PB'ers will note very well that I was predicting strength into late July - am still looking for one last final high around the 25th July, before the greatest crash of them all can begin in earnest. Hunchman doesn't just come on here as the market goes down as some PB'ers have alleged in the past! On the same day that Moody's upgrades the US credit rating, this happens:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/detroit-files-chapter-9-bankruptcy
Yes, once the 4th largest city in America c.1960, and the wealthiest city at that time on the back of the motor industry, has filed for bankruptcy.....if that can happen to Detroit, who else can fall that far from grace?
And this is the reality for the European car industry:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/european-car-sales-plunge-to-20-year-low.html
As always, we should expect what the (mainstream) economists don't:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/expect-what-economists-dont.html
I'm not really taking that much notice of opinion polls at the moment, they'll soon change once the ill winds blow in August, and the market commences a nasty decline - a good time for Farage to spend out of the spotlight, and come back refreshed in the autumn when events should be moving very much in the favour of UKIP / SNP. All the same, its been amusing to see just how much Mr Burnham and Labour have blotted their copybook on the NHS, not before time in my opinion!
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Go to Sam's Tailors and get a 100 day suit made, SO.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from Hong Kong. It's just before dawn and already steamy hot. Thank God for air conditioning. It's probably a whole lot more comfortable here than back home. Very interesting chats here with folk about deficiencies in Chinese way of education in PRC, HK, Singapore etc. the kids are never taught to think for themselves, so being pro-active, showing initiative, being prepared to take responsibility, argue a point etc are rare traits. In the UK we need to be aware of the drawbacks of relentless examination, long hours in class, and regimented, blackboard-facing teaching. It produces excellent PISA results, but not necessarily a dynamic, multi-skilled workforce.
Here are the details. No excuses!
Sam's tailor
Ground Floor K&L
Burlington Arcade
90-94C Nathan Rd
Tsim Sha Tsui
Kowloon
Hong Kong
Tel (852) 2367-9423
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Bullshit, tim.tim said:
It's not about Crosby, it's about Camerons character.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Fat chance.
Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …
And the sweating, evasive wriggling character today tells you why Labour will carry on pursuing it.
The Sun will be along with a poll soon to say only a few people know who Lynton Crosby is, which misses the point.
It is about the complete inability of the Labour party under Ed Miliband's leadership to develop a platform of policies which can compete with those of the current government.
Combine this dearth of policies with a false belief in the efficacy of brand politics and you have the full explanation for the Crosby attacks.
Is there anything about Miliband or the Labour party which makes you proud to support them?
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Scott_P
'Clearly a bigger story than "man eats burger"'
Maybe?
'If Miliband were able to see this through the eyes of a normal person he would see two things. One is that the reason for Cameron apparent evasion is probably that he had a conversation with Crosby along the lines of, “Of course we can’t talk about Government policy on cigarettes because of your client list.”
The other is that for Labour to bang on about someone whom the median voter thinks might be a folk rock musician suits Cameron down to the ground.'
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Don't they just have to withdraw from the Dollarzone, set up their own currency and everything will be just peachy?AveryLP said:hunchman said:On the same day that Moody's upgrades the US credit rating, this happens:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/detroit-files-chapter-9-bankruptcy
Yes, once the 4th largest city in America c.1960, and the wealthiest city at that time on the back of the motor industry, has filed for bankruptcy.....if that can happen to Detroit, who else can fall that far from grace?0 -
A friend of mine who works a lot with Japanese and Chinese engineers says the same thing. In fact, his experiences in Japan have convinced him that they are soon going to be rapidly heading back down the development leagues. According to him most Japanese adults are intellectually crippled, literally incapable of creative thought, critical analysis and initiative taking. Spells disaster for their economy in the long run.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from Hong Kong. It's just before dawn and already steamy hot. Thank God for air conditioning. It's probably a whole lot more comfortable here than back home. Very interesting chats here with folk about deficiencies in Chinese way of education in PRC, HK, Singapore etc. the kids are never taught to think for themselves, so being pro-active, showing initiative, being prepared to take responsibility, argue a point etc are rare traits. In the UK we need to be aware of the drawbacks of relentless examination, long hours in class, and regimented, blackboard-facing teaching. It produces excellent PISA results, but not necessarily a dynamic, multi-skilled workforce.
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Hunchman. Your recommendation to get out of the stock market when it was standing around 4500 because it was about to collapse has seen several of us selling the Big Issue.
I'm sure that if there are any left who you haven't bankrupted they'll be desperate to hear your latest stock market suggestions0 -
I haven't seen what Cameron said today.
The double L'Alpe d'Huez stage was far more important to me.
Do you have a link?tim said:
It's not about Crosby, it's about Camerons character.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Fat chance.
Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …
And the sweating, evasive wriggling character today tells you why Labour will carry on pursuing it.
The Sun will be along with a poll soon to say only a few people know who Lynton Crosby is, which misses the point.0 -
Indeed!HYUFD said:Stuart - Johann Lamont is actually more popular than Salmond in some polls, but the SNP has positioned itself to the left of Labour in Scotland, hence splitting the left vote in the same way UKIP is doing to the Tories down south!
But the key difference is in the "Don't Knows". Salmond and Cameron are almost universally known among the Ipsos MORI respondents, whereas Johann Lamont gets a heck of a lot of DKs. The Lib Dem leader Rennie is even worse, being almost unknown among the general public.
Ipsos MORI themselves do not headline with the net approval figures (I think Salmond was +2 and Lamont +5), but rather with the positive satisfaction figures, which puts Nicola Sturgeon way in the lead, followed by Salmond, with Lamont in the middle and Cameron a very poor last place.0 -
Either that or tax Madonna.No_Offence_Alan said:
Don't they just have to withdraw from the Dollarzone, set up their own currency and everything will be just peachy?AveryLP said:hunchman said:On the same day that Moody's upgrades the US credit rating, this happens:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/detroit-files-chapter-9-bankruptcy
Yes, once the 4th largest city in America c.1960, and the wealthiest city at that time on the back of the motor industry, has filed for bankruptcy.....if that can happen to Detroit, who else can fall that far from grace?
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It is the job of the opposition to oppose, so you can hardly blame them for doing so.AveryLP said:
Bullshit, tim.tim said:
It's not about Crosby, it's about Camerons character.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Fat chance.
Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …
And the sweating, evasive wriggling character today tells you why Labour will carry on pursuing it.
The Sun will be along with a poll soon to say only a few people know who Lynton Crosby is, which misses the point.
It is about the complete inability of the Labour party under Ed Miliband's leadership to develop a platform of policies which can compete with those of the current government.
Combine this dearth of policies with a false belief in the efficacy of brand politics and you have the full explanation for the Crosby attacks.
Is there anything about Miliband or the Labour party which makes you proud to support them?
It is the job of the government to govern. Competently. So, it would be nice to see a little of that from Cameron & Co.
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I always mean to do it when I'm here but never have the time. Meetings all day today, dinner tonight, home tomorrow.AveryLP said:
Go to Sam's Tailors and get a 100 day suit made, SO.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from Hong Kong. It's just before dawn and already steamy hot. Thank God for air conditioning. It's probably a whole lot more comfortable here than back home. Very interesting chats here with folk about deficiencies in Chinese way of education in PRC, HK, Singapore etc. the kids are never taught to think for themselves, so being pro-active, showing initiative, being prepared to take responsibility, argue a point etc are rare traits. In the UK we need to be aware of the drawbacks of relentless examination, long hours in class, and regimented, blackboard-facing teaching. It produces excellent PISA results, but not necessarily a dynamic, multi-skilled workforce.
Here are the details. No excuses!
Sam's tailor
Ground Floor K&L
Burlington Arcade
90-94C Nathan Rd
Tsim Sha Tsui
Kowloon
Hong Kong
Tel (852) 2367-9423
What is a 100 day suit?
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Got any suggestions for safe havens? Personally, I've been steadily squirrelling away capital in gold stocks for several months, but am now contemplating money market as I feel a tad over-exposed to gold now.
Gold is looking good for a counter trend move right now. But it will sell off in time with everything else when deflation really takes hold. Still useful to own some gold at the bottom though if all confidence is lost in all fiat money, including the US Dollar ultimately - that day is a long way off however.
Regulars will know that I advocate the US Dollar in safest cash form right now, and I personally think Singpore banks are among the world's safest, with a very sound economy, no government debt to speak of, UK based legal system - a lot to recommend it. Only negatives are high corporate debt and exposure to a downturn in world trade, personal borrowing there is very low.
The US Dollar still continues to put in higher lows and higher highs, its building a very firm base technically, and is poised to breakout much higher once deflation really takes hold.0 -
One that lasts a hundred days provided you don't go out in it when it is raining.SouthamObserver said:
I always mean to do it when I'm here but never have the time. Meetings all day today, dinner tonight, home tomorrow.AveryLP said:
Go to Sam's Tailors and get a 100 day suit made, SO.SouthamObserver said:Greetings from Hong Kong. It's just before dawn and already steamy hot. Thank God for air conditioning. It's probably a whole lot more comfortable here than back home. Very interesting chats here with folk about deficiencies in Chinese way of education in PRC, HK, Singapore etc. the kids are never taught to think for themselves, so being pro-active, showing initiative, being prepared to take responsibility, argue a point etc are rare traits. In the UK we need to be aware of the drawbacks of relentless examination, long hours in class, and regimented, blackboard-facing teaching. It produces excellent PISA results, but not necessarily a dynamic, multi-skilled workforce.
Here are the details. No excuses!
Sam's tailor
Ground Floor K&L
Burlington Arcade
90-94C Nathan Rd
Tsim Sha Tsui
Kowloon
Hong Kong
Tel (852) 2367-9423
What is a 100 day suit?
Not worth it if you are leaving tomorrow even though they would arrange a fitting to your timetable and place and offer to send the suit and shirts to the UK when finished. You really have to have at least one fitting,
A couple more days and you would have been OK.
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Sans Ecosse...HYUFD said:The 1950 and October 1974 elections would have been hung, but Labour would still have been the largest party in England
1950:
Con (inc NatLib & UU) 266
Lab 278
Lib 7
Irish Nat 2
Spkr 1
Lab maj 2, versus 6 with Scotland
Feb 1974:
Con 275
Lab 261
Lib 11
N Irish 12
Plaid 2
Ind 2
Spkr 1
Hung: Con 8 short, versus Lab 17 short with Scotland
Oct 1974:
Lab 278
Con 260
Lib 10
N Irish 12
Plaid 3
Spkr 1
Hung: Lab 5 short, versus Lab maj of 3 with Scotland
But we should remember that, in those times, Scotland was much more evenly balanced between Lab and Con, meaning that today the amputation of Scotland would be much more beneficial to the Tories...0 -
Stuart Dickson - Indeed, although clearly she will be better known in Scotland and not have Salmond's unfavourables. In any case, while no political titan, she is probably the best leader Scottish Labour have had since Donald Dewar!0
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I've been bullish plenty of times over the past 4 years, not enough, and yes, I did get bearish too soon on quite a few occasions as I have readily alluded to. I regularly get stopped out on trades at small losses, tight stop losses once a market breaks your scenario is all part of a trader's armoury. Let your winners run as far as possible, and stop your losers quickly - that's just a sensible trading strategy. I pretty much called the tops in gold and silver at $1920 and $50 per oz respectively on here, when many were bullish and only expecting higher prices, plus I pretty much nailed the bottom in Dollar Yen at a smidgen over 75. And I have called for the US Dollar to move higher, which it is doing, albeit slowly so far, in the teeth of many people who are predicting the Dollar to crash all the time - I'm quite happy to take the other side of that excessively bearish sentiment on the US Dollar all day long.Roger said:Hunchman. Your recommendation to get out of the stock market when it was standing around 4500 because it was about to collapse has seen several of us selling the Big Issue.
I'm sure that if there are any left who you haven't bankrupted they'll be desperate to hear your latest stock market suggestions
Yes, I'm far from perfect - I should not have called for the crash so soon - recognition of the important 7.25 year stockmarket cycle (pinpointing a bottom around mid-2016), and the fact that great credit deflationary crashes only take between 2 and 3 years, would have averted that. As they say, you learn continuously in life.0 -
The opposition are not opposing precisely because the coalition is governing competently.Stuart_Dickson said:
It is the job of the opposition to oppose, so you can hardly blame them for doing so.AveryLP said:
Bullshit, tim.tim said:
It's not about Crosby, it's about Camerons character.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Fat chance.
Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …
And the sweating, evasive wriggling character today tells you why Labour will carry on pursuing it.
The Sun will be along with a poll soon to say only a few people know who Lynton Crosby is, which misses the point.
It is about the complete inability of the Labour party under Ed Miliband's leadership to develop a platform of policies which can compete with those of the current government.
Combine this dearth of policies with a false belief in the efficacy of brand politics and you have the full explanation for the Crosby attacks.
Is there anything about Miliband or the Labour party which makes you proud to support them?
It is the job of the government to govern. Competently. So, it would be nice to see a little of that from Cameron & Co.
Hence the tactical game of trying to undermine Cameron's personal ratings and hoping the Labour brand will outshine Tory "toxicity" at the GE.
It may work. But it is not worthy of committed support. It is cynical manipulation of public ignorance.
Brown won power without knowing what to do with it. Miliband is probably better than that and wants an intellectual and value basis for governing but is struggling to find one that is acceptable to the the electorate. Hence his silence.
Even tim knows this is true although he would never admit it.
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On topic: Didn't JohnO, much beloved grandee of this parish, say earlier that there was a by-election in his neck of the woods (deepest Surrey) today? Indeed I seem to recall what can only be described as a frisson of nervousness about the potential performance of some purple Johnny-come-latelies..0
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.. or, as I should say, Johnnies-come-lately. Apologies for the solecism.0
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Why the puzzle about Labour doing better in England vote share than GB? With the SNP polling high in Scotland it's not surprising. I think the latest ICM had SNP, Plaid and Greens combined ahead of UKIP. Other interesting finding from that poll was that Osborne's no tax rises hasn't convinced the voters (who think tax rises are necessary).0
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Looking at the lists I think that JohnO's by-election is next ThursdayRichardNabavi said:On topic: Didn't JohnO, much beloved grandee of this parish, say earlier that there was a by-election in his neck of the woods (deepest Surrey) today? Indeed I seem to recall what can only be described as a frisson of nervousness about the potential performance of some purple Johnny-come-latelies..
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Looking forward to a fat 14% tax free profit (on £80k) courtesy of the FTSE shortly...
My third successive successful hit.0 -
@MikeSmithson - Ah, right. Thanks.0
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Rod - The figures I have for England only are (these also exclude Wales and NI unlike your figures):
1950
Con 242
Cons and Lib 2
Cons and Nat Lib 2
Lib and Cons 1
Nat Lib and Cons 4
Nat Lib 1
Lab 251
Lib 2
Speaker 1
Hung Parl Lab 3 short
Feb 1974
Con 267
Lab 237
Ind Lab 1
Lib 9
Soc Dem 1
Speaker 1
Cons majority of 18
Oct 1974
Cons 252
Lab 255
Lib 8
Speaker 1
Hung Parl Lab 4 short
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk.htm
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OK, I thought we were just sacrificing Scotland...HYUFD said:Rod - The figures I have for England only are (these also exclude Wales and NI unlike your figures):
...
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk.htm
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Scotland now is more anti-Tory, but Labour would still have won 328 seats in England in 1997 to the Tories' 165, in 2001 Labour won 323 seats in England to 165 Tory and in 2005 Labour won 286 seats in England to 194 Tory. In 2010 though Cameron did have a comfortable English majority, winning 297 seats to 191 Labour0
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Flint Lab hold Cambs Con gain from Ind
Flint Lab 386 Ind 285 Con 34
Cambs Con 477 UKIP 233 Lab 199 LD 1100 -
I disagree. FM Henry McLeish was ten times better than Lamont. He had the vision thing. Lamont does whit she's telt.HYUFD said:Stuart Dickson - Indeed, although clearly she will be better known in Scotland and not have Salmond's unfavourables. In any case, while no political titan, she is probably the best leader Scottish Labour have had since Donald Dewar!
Her "unfavourables" will become abundantly clear as time marches on. Eg. did you notice her invisibility during the Falkirk crisis?0 -
RodCrosby - I did just England, mainly to dispute the idea that the Tories' would almost always win English only elections, even though they get some assistance that is not the case, not because I expect the Welsh or NI to vote for independence even if PC and SF get in and their Scots cousins do (which they probably won't anyway)0
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Yikes. Have to look that up.FrankBooth said:Why the puzzle about Labour doing better in England vote share than GB? With the SNP polling high in Scotland it's not surprising. I think the latest ICM had SNP, Plaid and Greens combined ahead of UKIP.
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Well, we're a bit far out yet to know by how much the Tories will lead in the PV in 2015. (I expect the swingback forecast to come back into pro-Tory territory by 2015, btw)Stuart_Dickson said:
So, forecast Con lead of nearly 4% at UK GE 2015. Meaning PM Ed Miliband presumably?RodCrosby said:Some forecasts for 2015, including updated Lebo & Norpoth...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdDNxZ3dVTENKUkdRdnFweWg2Z3NzREE&usp=sharing
Rod, I note that Paddy Power are offering 11/2 on an early (2014) UK GE. I assume that that is ridiculously short, but just wondered how you rate the chances of the next UK GE not being in 2015?
A 4%-ish Con lead on UNS would be nip and tuck in seats between Lab and Con.
Further analysis required.
Sorry, I haven't really thought about the election coming significantly earlier than May 2015. Maybe I should?0 -
Of course there is a Cornish nationalist party too, but I think excluding Cornwall would make things a bit too complicated even for a political anorak on a hot evening! (and the chances of MK ever getting power in Cornwall are as close to zero as you can get)0
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Veronica Bennett selected by Labour for South Ribble. She's a Cllr in Sefton.
Unite doesn't care about SR.0 -
Stuart Dickson - But Mcleish never led Labour to an election and had to resign over a financial scandal, and she is certainly better than John (now Lord) McConnell and Iain Gray and Wendy Alexander (who also never led an election campaign).0
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Veronica Bennett selected by Labour for South Ribble.
Maajid Nawaz selected by LDs for Hampstead & Kilburn.
Hampstead & Kilburn is the first constituency where candidates for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats have been selected:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=00 -
Miliband's chances of being PM depend on winning a majority (obviously) or being the largest Party (in theory). However consider a hung parliament scenario in which the Lib Dems have lost Sheffield Hallam. It gets complicated.0
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It would be interesting to model PR^2 without Scotland.. LOL.
2005 something like.
Con 227
Lab 244
LD 95
UKIP 1
NI 18
PC 2
Hung: LDs kingmakers, majority with either party
2010 something like.
Con 294
Lab 163*
LD 112
UKIP 2
NI 18
PC 2
Hung: Con 2 short of a majority
* despite Labour having almost 100 fewer seats than under FPTP, NPXMP might well still be NPMP under PR^2!0 -
Candidates for Hampstead & Kilburn:
Lab: Tulip Siddiq
Con: Simon Marcus
LD: Maajid Nawaz
Votes in 2010:
Lab: 17,332
Con: 17,290
LD: 16,4910 -
2005 Labour won 286 seats in England to 194 Tory? Ah the joys of FPTP!HYUFD said:Scotland now is more anti-Tory, but Labour would still have won 328 seats in England in 1997 to the Tories' 165, in 2001 Labour won 323 seats in England to 165 Tory and in 2005 Labour won 286 seats in England to 194 Tory. In 2010 though Cameron did have a comfortable English majority, winning 297 seats to 191 Labour
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RodCrosby - Interesting, there would still almost certainly have been a Tory/LD coalition in 2010 on such figures (I can't see Dave seeking to rely on UKIP and the DUP unless the Tories threatened to dump him for a rightwinger like Fox or Davis), but in 2005 the LDs would have gone into coalition with Labour most likely, but only if Labour dumped Blair for Brown and promised a swift exit from Iraq!0
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She's MY councillor in (formerly) true-blue Blundellsands. Defeated the Tory group leader (25-year incumbent) in 2012, gaining the ward for Labour for the first time ever. She's about 25, I think.AndreaParma_82 said:Veronica Bennett selected by Labour for South Ribble. She's a Cllr in Sefton.
Unite doesn't care about SR.
(my uncle was the Labour candidate in BS in 1977. Got about 20% in a straight fight with the Tory, IIRC...)0 -
@Mike @RichardN - Yep, the Battle of Weybridge South is indeed next Thursday. Canvassed on Monday....surprise, surprise....little interest, but vote seems OK, and PVs being used, but you just can't tell the level of kipper support. We're the only ones doing any campaigning or indeed delivering literature. But, yes, I'm still a bit apprehensive....(that's neurosis for you!)
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Have you factored in Glenda's personal vote, and the obvious ethnic aspect?MikeSmithson said:
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So you think that LAB will be hurt in Hampstead by having a candidate with a Asian sounding name?
You are revealing more about yourself there than offering political insight.RodCrosby said:0 -
Maajid Nawaz is from a British-Pakistani background and Tulip Siddiq from a British-Bangladeshi background. In some constituencies those kinds of details would be important although maybe not so much in Hampstead.0
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The long-term weather forecast is that temperatures could hit 35 degrees next Wednesday and Thursday.0
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Sunil - Indeed, although the Tories won a few thousand more votes in England in 2005, but as the Tories staunchly opposed AV they can have no complaints about FPTP!0
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Hampstead is probably the Tories' only hope of a gain from Labour in London, mainly I think because the demographic changes that are working against the Tories in the rest of the capital are having less impact in the constituency.0
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And once the BBC get hold of you, you're theirs for life....MikeSmithson said:So you think that LAB will be hurt in Hampstead by having a candidate with a Asian sounding name?
You are revealing more about yourself there than offering political insight.
(Thank f*** I've never forked out for a 'licence' for this state propaganda. They keep sending me letters. LOL. Arsepaper.....)
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My memory is that Labour won the list vote in Hampstead and Kilburn last year. Different election and different turnout but I would think both the higher GE turnout and ability to squeeze the Green vote particularly would both tend to boost them further in 2015. The Lib Dems will have their hands full saving the seats they hold so the huge squeeze they suffered last year could be replicated again.0
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Ah, but AV isn't a proportional system!HYUFD said:Sunil - Indeed, although the Tories won a few thousand more votes in England in 2005, but as the Tories staunchly opposed AV they can have no complaints about FPTP!
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Depends. Proportionality is relative. D'Hondt in the UK Euros doesn't really meet the definition of PR.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Ah, but AV isn't a proportional system!HYUFD said:Sunil - Indeed, although the Tories won a few thousand more votes in England in 2005, but as the Tories staunchly opposed AV they can have no complaints about FPTP!
AV in Australia probably does.0
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