Prior to the last election most people thought Hampstead & Kilburn was far more likely to be won by the LDs than Brent Central: many expected Sarah Teather to stand in H&K and were a bit surprised when she chose not to.
Prior to the last election most people thought Hampstead & Kilburn was far more likely to be won by the LDs than Brent Central: many expected Sarah Teather to stand in H&K and were a bit surprised when she chose not to.
Aye, but as she didn't we'll never know what would have happened if she had!
Probably would have won, imho...
The (correct) strategy most likely was that if Teather stood in Brent the LDs might just possibly win 2 seats, whereas if she stood in H&K they could not win more than one...
Chance of no seats was about equal in either case, so logical to adopt the Brent-Teather strategy...
Stuart - Johann Lamont is actually more popular than Salmond in some polls, but the SNP has positioned itself to the left of Labour in Scotland, hence splitting the left vote in the same way UKIP is doing to the Tories down south!
Indeed!
But the key difference is in the "Don't Knows". Salmond and Cameron are almost universally known among the Ipsos MORI respondents, whereas Johann Lamont gets a heck of a lot of DKs. The Lib Dem leader Rennie is even worse, being almost unknown among the general public.
Ipsos MORI themselves do not headline with the net approval figures (I think Salmond was +2 and Lamont +5), but rather with the positive satisfaction figures, which puts Nicola Sturgeon way in the lead, followed by Salmond, with Lamont in the middle and Cameron a very poor last place.
Changing a leader can change fortunes, note Labor in Oz. I think 3 months before debate, around the EU vote time, Sturgeon should take over the SNP as the leader, get the women vote up and the planned negativity from the MSM has to be lessened as it will come across as misogynist. I think she is worth 5% at least on the yes vote as the negative campaign is attacking Salmond and not her. hard for salmond to do but it would make a difference and cause chaos in the NO camp.
Good morning everyone. Another glorious day and an exciting day 2 at Lord's in prospect. How long can England hold on for? How many more runs will they add? Will the Aussies top order crumble? Can Agar repeat his phenomenal first test?
"The government has outlined plans to give tax breaks to companies involved in the UK's nascent shale gas industry.
It has proposed cutting the tax on some of the income generated from producing shale gas - found in underground shale rock formations - from 62% to just 30%.
The plans would make the UK the "most generous" regime for shale gas in the world, the government said."
Benedict Brogan tweets: "A summer winner from the Lib Dems: parking fines should go up, according to Norman Baker (in #DailyMail)). One for the manifesto"
Perhaps the Lib Dems will add minimum alcohol pricing to their list of summer winners....
It must be my inner UKiP but the first thing I thought of when I saw this headline was - How many of these water companies are owned by European conglomerates and how will cheap UK gas impact their home interests?
A pre-summer charm offensive by Ed Miliband backfired when he paid an evening visit to the Terrace of the House of Commons. Labour politicians put down their secretaries and looked up eagerly, hoping for benediction from the Dear Leader, but were miffed when he sat down at a table with a group of Tories, including Conor Burns, chairman of the Margaret Thatcher Fan Club, and Mark Worthington, the Iron Lady’s former private secretary.
“The thing I admired about Thatcher was her consistency,” Milband was heard to say. “I came across an interview she gave in 1974 and 20 years later she was saying the same things.” Maggie-love went on for 15 minutes before a henchman pulled him aside and suggested there were some Labour MPs who would like a moment of his time.
"Just days after J K Rowling was outed as Robert Galbraith, author of the Cuckoo's Calling, the author revealed that a partner at Russells law firm was the cause of the disclosure by telling his wife's best friend who Galbraith really was."
However consider a hung parliament scenario in which the Lib Dems have lost Sheffield Hallam. It gets complicated.
Presumably, Clegg wouldn't be able to lead the Lib Dems from the Lords, He might be able to come back in a by-election, if he can persuade one of his few MPs with a safe seat to stand down, or we might see a leadership election, which would definitely complicate coalition negotiations.
Part of the problem with predicting the next general election is that we've no good precedent for the effects of the coalition. Models can try to account for it, but extrapolation is seldom as reliable as interpolation.
I'd split the 2010 Lib Dem voters into * True believers, the hard core * Anti-Tory tacticals, who are likely to swing to Labour * Anti-Labour tacticals, who will mostly stay put * Plague on all your houses, who despise Tories and Labour both, and will split among the minor parties.
However, I've little idea what fraction of the 2010 Lib Dem voters fall into each category, and the tactical fractions are likely to differ widely between constituencies, which could lead to some pretty odd results.
Comments
Probably would have won, imho...
The (correct) strategy most likely was that if Teather stood in Brent the LDs might just possibly win 2 seats, whereas if she stood in H&K they could not win more than one...
Chance of no seats was about equal in either case, so logical to adopt the Brent-Teather strategy...
I can't wait.
Also some interesting shifts on party perception:
Old & tired:
Con: 35 (+1)
Lab: 31 (+5)
Heart in right place:
Con: 24 (+4)
Lab: 29 (-2)
Left past behind it:
Con: 22 (+4)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Appeals to one section of society:
Con: 48 (-2)
Lab: 22 (+1)
"The government has outlined plans to give tax breaks to companies involved in the UK's nascent shale gas industry.
It has proposed cutting the tax on some of the income generated from producing shale gas - found in underground shale rock formations - from 62% to just 30%.
The plans would make the UK the "most generous" regime for shale gas in the world, the government said."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23368505
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pmqs/10185380/Tory-MPs-get-their-claws-out-for-Cheryl-Gillan.html
Perhaps the Lib Dems will add minimum alcohol pricing to their list of summer winners....
Benedict Brogan @benedictbrogan 18m
Good morning. Tony Blair told to expect criticism in Chilcot report. At this rate, one for the historians http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/10189380/Tony-Blair-warned-he-will-be-criticised-in-Iraq-report.html …
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/utilities/10189331/Water-firms-raise-fears-over-shale-gas-fracking.html
Edit - I've just put the same comment on the Telegraph article, wonder how many likes I'll get :-)
Any News on the Crosby lol poll ?
SaveEd!
A pre-summer charm offensive by Ed Miliband backfired when he paid an evening visit to the Terrace of the House of Commons. Labour politicians put down their secretaries and looked up eagerly, hoping for benediction from the Dear Leader, but were miffed when he sat down at a table with a group of Tories, including Conor Burns, chairman of the Margaret Thatcher Fan Club, and Mark Worthington, the Iron Lady’s former private secretary.
“The thing I admired about Thatcher was her consistency,” Milband was heard to say. “I came across an interview she gave in 1974 and 20 years later she was saying the same things.” Maggie-love went on for 15 minutes before a henchman pulled him aside and suggested there were some Labour MPs who would like a moment of his time.
Lawyers .......
"Just days after J K Rowling was outed as Robert Galbraith, author of the Cuckoo's Calling, the author revealed that a partner at Russells law firm was the cause of the disclosure by telling his wife's best friend who Galbraith really was."
Part of the problem with predicting the next general election is that we've no good precedent for the effects of the coalition. Models can try to account for it, but extrapolation is seldom as reliable as interpolation.
I'd split the 2010 Lib Dem voters into
* True believers, the hard core
* Anti-Tory tacticals, who are likely to swing to Labour
* Anti-Labour tacticals, who will mostly stay put
* Plague on all your houses, who despise Tories and Labour both, and will split among the minor parties.
However, I've little idea what fraction of the 2010 Lib Dem voters fall into each category, and the tactical fractions are likely to differ widely between constituencies, which could lead to some pretty odd results.