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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 18th 2013
Flintshire (created out of the remains of Clwyd along with Denbighshire and Wrexham) has always been a strongly Labour area (even during the worse times for Labour). This was demonstrated at the 1983 general election when Alyn and Deeside (made up of the old Flint East constituency) returned a Labour MP despite Delyn electing a Conservative MP.
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Rather sweltering and horrid here, frankly. Anyway, cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular by-election piece.
It'll be a little cooler at the weekend, but we'll have to wait about a week before the hot spell ends, apparently.
FPT
There once was a girl at the Money Shop
So wealthy they branded her a fop
Declined her at Wonga
Cos she was from Tonga
But she finally came out on top!
Next race up is Hungary, which is all about front end grip. Definitely not a place for differential front end grip.
It's hard to overtake, largely because it's badly designed. Lots of fairly high speed corners where aerodynamics dictate pace, meaning bad airflow prevents a chasing car from getting near to the one ahead. However, degradation of tyres and cunning strategy should enable some to make up ground, and others to lose it.
London -17
Rest of South -17
Midlands/Wales -28
North -40
Scotland -62
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l1jcon3uxv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160713.pdf
I met Mrs J for the first time in Sawston. I went for a job interview and there she was, looking lovely as she fiddled with the knobs on a signal generator. She certainly generated a signal in me. ;-)
It is a mixed area, with some very rich companies nearby (the Sanger Institute and Babraham Institutes). As in many areas of South Cambridgeshire, planned housing developments are a hot issue.
Good lord ur even more boring than tim
Mind you, Ipsos MORI lump in Scotland with the north of England in one of their breaks, which seems worse than useless. Interestingly, Ipsos MORI provide an England-only break too, which makes me wonder if the headline VI figures we all see bandied about all the time might not be slightly underestimating the level of Lib Dem support in England? See what I mean:
Headline VI figures (Great Britain):
Lab 40%
Con 29%
UKIP 12%
LD 10%
Grn 4%
SNP 3%
PC 1%
oth 1%
England-only VI figures:
Lab 41%
Con 29%
UKIP 12%
LD 12%
Grn 4%
oth 2%
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/jul2013polMon_Tables.PDF
Those England only figures surprise me. I'd expect Labour to decline a shade and UKIP to increase.
Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby: me for @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/smoke-but-no-fire-labour-should-stop-banging-on-about-lynton-crosby-8716693.html …
Polls are interesting its just Scotland which I find boring and posters who think the world revolves around it. As for the site it's the best of a bad bunch.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdDNxZ3dVTENKUkdRdnFweWg2Z3NzREE&usp=sharing
Good lord ur even more boring than tim
I know you don't post anything about politics, so why are you commenting on a politics site?
Well its wonderful weather outside, stock markets rising happily - PB'ers will note very well that I was predicting strength into late July - am still looking for one last final high around the 25th July, before the greatest crash of them all can begin in earnest. Hunchman doesn't just come on here as the market goes down as some PB'ers have alleged in the past! On the same day that Moody's upgrades the US credit rating, this happens:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/detroit-files-chapter-9-bankruptcy
Yes, once the 4th largest city in America c.1960, and the wealthiest city at that time on the back of the motor industry, has filed for bankruptcy.....if that can happen to Detroit, who else can fall that far from grace?
And this is the reality for the European car industry:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/european-car-sales-plunge-to-20-year-low.html
As always, we should expect what the (mainstream) economists don't:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/expect-what-economists-dont.html
I'm not really taking that much notice of opinion polls at the moment, they'll soon change once the ill winds blow in August, and the market commences a nasty decline - a good time for Farage to spend out of the spotlight, and come back refreshed in the autumn when events should be moving very much in the favour of UKIP / SNP. All the same, its been amusing to see just how much Mr Burnham and Labour have blotted their copybook on the NHS, not before time in my opinion!
"I thought the main advantage of Free Schools is that their classrooms are air condiditioned."
Those are the Dyson Free Schools.
Rod, I note that Paddy Power are offering 11/2 on an early (2014) UK GE. I assume that that is ridiculously short, but just wondered how you rate the chances of the next UK GE not being in 2015?
'Labour should stop banging on about Lynton Crosby'
But it's hilarious watching lefties running round like headless chickens,are they frit or what?
Ipswich now has a Conservative MP. In the 1983 election, it remained Labour. I suppose that's as good an indication as any of how the country has polarised politically along geographical lines.
Clearly a bigger story than "man eats burger"
NewsSense™. All bollocks, all the time.
But the best story of all is France's decision to ban imports of (most of ) Mercedes new car ranges because they are using a Mobile Air Conditioning coolant which is proscribed by the EU.
The dispute is almost escalating to war with a division of Mercedes Taxis about to advance on Paris.
I predict a swift French surrender.
See http://www.just-auto.com/news/mercedes-benz_id136354.aspx for the battle plans.
The Dyson schools suck.
Here are the details. No excuses!
Sam's tailor
Ground Floor K&L
Burlington Arcade
90-94C Nathan Rd
Tsim Sha Tsui
Kowloon
Hong Kong
Tel (852) 2367-9423
It is about the complete inability of the Labour party under Ed Miliband's leadership to develop a platform of policies which can compete with those of the current government.
Combine this dearth of policies with a false belief in the efficacy of brand politics and you have the full explanation for the Crosby attacks.
Is there anything about Miliband or the Labour party which makes you proud to support them?
'Clearly a bigger story than "man eats burger"'
Maybe?
'If Miliband were able to see this through the eyes of a normal person he would see two things. One is that the reason for Cameron apparent evasion is probably that he had a conversation with Crosby along the lines of, “Of course we can’t talk about Government policy on cigarettes because of your client list.”
The other is that for Labour to bang on about someone whom the median voter thinks might be a folk rock musician suits Cameron down to the ground.'
I'm sure that if there are any left who you haven't bankrupted they'll be desperate to hear your latest stock market suggestions
The double L'Alpe d'Huez stage was far more important to me.
Do you have a link?
How are your bank shares doing?
But the key difference is in the "Don't Knows". Salmond and Cameron are almost universally known among the Ipsos MORI respondents, whereas Johann Lamont gets a heck of a lot of DKs. The Lib Dem leader Rennie is even worse, being almost unknown among the general public.
Ipsos MORI themselves do not headline with the net approval figures (I think Salmond was +2 and Lamont +5), but rather with the positive satisfaction figures, which puts Nicola Sturgeon way in the lead, followed by Salmond, with Lamont in the middle and Cameron a very poor last place.
It is the job of the government to govern. Competently. So, it would be nice to see a little of that from Cameron & Co.
What is a 100 day suit?
Gold is looking good for a counter trend move right now. But it will sell off in time with everything else when deflation really takes hold. Still useful to own some gold at the bottom though if all confidence is lost in all fiat money, including the US Dollar ultimately - that day is a long way off however.
Regulars will know that I advocate the US Dollar in safest cash form right now, and I personally think Singpore banks are among the world's safest, with a very sound economy, no government debt to speak of, UK based legal system - a lot to recommend it. Only negatives are high corporate debt and exposure to a downturn in world trade, personal borrowing there is very low.
The US Dollar still continues to put in higher lows and higher highs, its building a very firm base technically, and is poised to breakout much higher once deflation really takes hold.
Not worth it if you are leaving tomorrow even though they would arrange a fitting to your timetable and place and offer to send the suit and shirts to the UK when finished. You really have to have at least one fitting,
A couple more days and you would have been OK.
1950:
Con (inc NatLib & UU) 266
Lab 278
Lib 7
Irish Nat 2
Spkr 1
Lab maj 2, versus 6 with Scotland
Feb 1974:
Con 275
Lab 261
Lib 11
N Irish 12
Plaid 2
Ind 2
Spkr 1
Hung: Con 8 short, versus Lab 17 short with Scotland
Oct 1974:
Lab 278
Con 260
Lib 10
N Irish 12
Plaid 3
Spkr 1
Hung: Lab 5 short, versus Lab maj of 3 with Scotland
But we should remember that, in those times, Scotland was much more evenly balanced between Lab and Con, meaning that today the amputation of Scotland would be much more beneficial to the Tories...
Yes, I'm far from perfect - I should not have called for the crash so soon - recognition of the important 7.25 year stockmarket cycle (pinpointing a bottom around mid-2016), and the fact that great credit deflationary crashes only take between 2 and 3 years, would have averted that. As they say, you learn continuously in life.
"How are your bank shares doing?"
It's too late for jokes. All I can say is that thanks to Huntsman I'm not alone
Hence the tactical game of trying to undermine Cameron's personal ratings and hoping the Labour brand will outshine Tory "toxicity" at the GE.
It may work. But it is not worthy of committed support. It is cynical manipulation of public ignorance.
Brown won power without knowing what to do with it. Miliband is probably better than that and wants an intellectual and value basis for governing but is struggling to find one that is acceptable to the the electorate. Hence his silence.
Even tim knows this is true although he would never admit it.
My third successive successful hit.
1950
Con 242
Cons and Lib 2
Cons and Nat Lib 2
Lib and Cons 1
Nat Lib and Cons 4
Nat Lib 1
Lab 251
Lib 2
Speaker 1
Hung Parl Lab 3 short
Feb 1974
Con 267
Lab 237
Ind Lab 1
Lib 9
Soc Dem 1
Speaker 1
Cons majority of 18
Oct 1974
Cons 252
Lab 255
Lib 8
Speaker 1
Hung Parl Lab 4 short
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk.htm
Flint Lab 386 Ind 285 Con 34
Cambs Con 477 UKIP 233 Lab 199 LD 110
Her "unfavourables" will become abundantly clear as time marches on. Eg. did you notice her invisibility during the Falkirk crisis?
A 4%-ish Con lead on UNS would be nip and tuck in seats between Lab and Con.
Further analysis required.
Sorry, I haven't really thought about the election coming significantly earlier than May 2015. Maybe I should?
Unite doesn't care about SR.
Maajid Nawaz selected by LDs for Hampstead & Kilburn.
Hampstead & Kilburn is the first constituency where candidates for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats have been selected:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
2005 something like.
Con 227
Lab 244
LD 95
UKIP 1
NI 18
PC 2
Hung: LDs kingmakers, majority with either party
2010 something like.
Con 294
Lab 163*
LD 112
UKIP 2
NI 18
PC 2
Hung: Con 2 short of a majority
* despite Labour having almost 100 fewer seats than under FPTP, NPXMP might well still be NPMP under PR^2!
Lab: Tulip Siddiq
Con: Simon Marcus
LD: Maajid Nawaz
Votes in 2010:
Lab: 17,332
Con: 17,290
LD: 16,491
(my uncle was the Labour candidate in BS in 1977. Got about 20% in a straight fight with the Tory, IIRC...)
The LD vote will be squeezed with most going red rather than blue
You are revealing more about yourself there than offering political insight.
You'll win John
(Thank f*** I've never forked out for a 'licence' for this state propaganda. They keep sending me letters. LOL. Arsepaper.....)
AV in Australia probably does.