Will be interesting to see which one sues on that comment!
Joking aside, I agree. Boris is l.
S
GOWNBPM
Poor Brookie, ought (albeit in your fervid malevolence) is not the equivalent of is (or indeed will be). I'll help with your return fare to Bogtrotter land.
Poor bogtrotter John several generations over here and you still can't decipher an acronym.
But He will never be prime minister, he's just unlikeable.
Except (he says with characteristic modesty) I know my party infinitely better than you do. Oh, how we chuckled at your principled and futile abstention in May
LOL when you're living in one of the safest blue seats you already know an abstention means nothing, though in spoling my ballot I did get to tell your election agent how shit Osborne is. :-)
He'll get passed over for someone electable.
I expect he smiled indulgently and, like me, thought, OK there's another nutter. And moved on.
Except of course you haven't, or you wouldn't be bringing up how I voted.
And you're backing a guy with voters rate alongside Corbyn. Who's the nutter ?
Brookie, you continue to be a source of continuing mirtmy remains in reasonable shape, he will be Cameron's successor and thus PM. Straightforward really.
So cheer up it's a win all round :-)
C'mon...let's have a bet: it's the pb way! What odds?
really John are you getting so desperate you're resorting to the tim trap ?
I'll give you £ 25, proceeds to the site that he won't succeed Cameron as PM.
I don't do desperation old soldier, but I do do the occasional wager here for fun. But if yours is a unilateral pledge to donate £25 to the site if George takes over, then I'm sure Mike will be appreciative.
Win win then.
GO gets elected Mike gets a silver lining from the cloud of gloom
GO screws up ( reality ) then the Tories become electable post cameron.
Right have to go out now, but thanks for the chat.
Opinium gives both SNP total and total Scottish sample and therefore it is possible to estimate SNP share after allowing for don't knows etc which gives the c55% figure. It is not possible to work out the other parties since there is no Scottish breakdown for them. However if SNP are anything over 50 then it seems very unlikely that Opinium holds up your theory of Labour improvement in Scotland. There would be nothing left for the Tories which then would shoot down your second theory of Tory improvement!
I don't really rate any sub sample at all except averaging over a substantial period. My objection was to you citing a Comres poll which showed the opposite of what you were arguing and then elevating a single YouGov sub sample to a level which it simply cannot bear.
It is also reasonable to point out that the more likely/less likely question for YouGov gives no support whatsoever to the view that Corbyn is any more effective in Scotland. More likely that doubts questions over his credibility as a Prime Minister counteract whatever specific attraction his politics may have for Scotland.
ie Opinium does not even give a full Scottish breakdown like yougov, you are just guessing.
Yougov is the only poll today with a full Scottish subsample and other regional figures which look plausible, it has the SNP on 44%, Labour 28%, the Tories 21%. The more/less likely figure is irrelevant as it is favourables which are normally more important in giving the actual party score and even more so because yougov does indeed give the actual Scottish Labour score.
Until we get other full Scottish subsamples and other polls specifically for Scotland I will take the yougov score
I think that the greek government of Syriza-Anel has been re-elected with a reduced majority, I think they will get around 151-153 seats out of 300 with the breakaway LAE under the 3% threshold, the best possible outcome for Tsipras.
I think that the greek government of Syriza-Anel has been re-elected with a reduced majority, I think they will get around 151-153 seats out of 300 with the breakaway LAE under the 3% threshold, the best possible outcome for Tsipras.
On my numbers SYRIZA + ANEL is between 2 and 6 seats short of a majority, and will need either Potami or the Centrists to govern.
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
I see the PB Tory wisdom of the crowds has proven its fallibility once again in Greece. Good work Syriza.
People, even in Greece, have realised that it doesn't matter a jot who forms the government there. It is the EU that is dictating policy in particular austerity.
Lawson did though have one of the great titles for his memoirs - The View from Number 11. That's got to be up there with Butler's The Art of the Possible and the grand-daddy of them all, Geoffrey Howe's Conflict of Loyalty. It's sad that clever titles have gone so far out of fashion that Blair thought the mind-numbingly twee A Journey was suitable for his memoirs.
Mandelson's The Third Man wasn't a bad title.
'My Early Life'; which ended l believe '...lived happily ever after'
Can anyone hand on heart-who doesn't wish Labour ill-believe they would have been more electable with Ed than with Jeremy?
This poll doesn't surprise me at all. The old order has the putrid smell of decay and that's not just the Tories. Corbyn's starting to look like a breath of fresh air.
Hand on heart yes. There were times that I was a lot less confident than JackW and thought that Ed could (disappointing though it would be to me) be PM. I think had he played his cards differently he might be PM now.
Corbyn though is a retrograde throwback to the past and will never be PM. The only question for Corbyn if he stays until an election is not will or won't he be PM but barring some national insanity how much lower will he set Labour's benchmark than what Foot got. It would take a miracle with Scotland as it is now for Corbyn to even reach Foot's seats.
Question for the history boffins - when was the last time the primary opposition party received less seats in two elections in a row? Or that the primary government party won more seats than they were governing with in two elections in a row?
I can't recall it happening in my lifetime off the top of my head, but its what will happen if Corbyn stays until 2020.
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
Syriza 144 ND 75 Golden Dawn 19 PASOK 17 Communists 15 River 10 Independent Greeks 10 Union of Centrists 10 Peoples Union 0
Unless the areas to report so far are totally unrepresentative it doesn't look like there's much chance of ND overtaking Syriza and getting the bonus 50 seats then.
My instinct has been that we may get a Corbyn bounce in Wales in the Assembly elections next year. He is going down well in the valleys and may peel off a few Plaid and UKIPs. Early days, I know but signs are promising.
I see the PB Tory wisdom of the crowds has proven its fallibility once again in Greece. Good work Syriza.
I've not noticed any PB Tory received wisdom that the Greeks won't vote for Syriza. Syriza winning but implementing EU rather than Syriza policies seems to be the general expectation of everyone here.
Syriza 144 ND 75 Golden Dawn 19 PASOK 17 Communists 15 River 10 Independent Greeks 10 Union of Centrists 10 Peoples Union 0
Unless the areas to report so far are totally unrepresentative it doesn't look like there's much chance of ND overtaking Syriza and getting the bonus 50 seats then.
I see the PB Tory wisdom of the crowds has proven its fallibility once again in Greece. Good work Syriza.
I've not noticed any PB Tory received wisdom that the Greeks won't vote for Syriza. Syriza winning but implementing EU rather than Syriza policies seems to be the general expectation of everyone here.
Plenty of people were saying they thought Syriza would be out pronto all year, right up until the exit polls came out. Now they've just got themselves a proper mandate yet again. The Greeks are well aware that the Euro cabal have a stranglehold on Greek policy whatever happens at the moment, but those voting for Syriza know they are at least trying to work out how to do something different rather than actively and happily colluding in the country's destruction - hence why they've been returned having hardly lost any of their voters.
I see the PB Tory wisdom of the crowds has proven its fallibility once again in Greece. Good work Syriza.
I've not noticed any PB Tory received wisdom that the Greeks won't vote for Syriza. Syriza winning but implementing EU rather than Syriza policies seems to be the general expectation of everyone here.
We wouldn't want to pontificate on everything. Would spoil the surprise for the punters
Well at least it's not a cliffhanger like in January when Syriza were within 150 votes out of 6 million from an overall majority at several points during the count...
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The more I think about it, the more irrelevant I think polling is at this stage. Most people are turned off as they know there is no election for over 50 months. The main block currently thinking about politics is the Labour Selectorate.
Also, this is the first set of polls since Corbyn was elected, so they are not calibrated against anything meaningful.
GE.
You still peddling that merde, subsample was <100</p>
All the polling before the leadership election too showed Corbyn polled best in Scotland and London so the fact Labour has its largest lead in London in today's yougov and had an improved rating in Scotland is not that surprising
It means nothing though. Organisation in Scotland is dire , lots of infighting , they are going nowhere as a sub regional office. Same fate as the Tories and LibDems.
Corbyn may pick up a handful of seats in the Central Belt, but of course more immediately next years' Holyrood elections are under PR, not FPTP, so the increase in the unionist party's vote in today's poll is more significant there, especially if Sturgeon tries to push for indyref2 to be in the SNP's manifesto
It has been well trailed what will be in manifesto re the next referendum.
Do tell!
"Just the facts ma'am" as they used to say in the cop shows.....
It will be some holding guff and some triggers that they believe will merit another referendum, it will not be setting dates for the next one. That will only happen when it looks a sure bet so likely to be next Tory victory.
Agree - with the triggers suitably fudged too - so for example 'Trident' - vote to renew might not be a trigger - but deployment of new boats could be.....
Syriza 145 ND 75 Golden Dawn 19 PASOK 17 Communists 15 River 10 Independent Greeks 10 Union of Centrists 9 Peoples Union 0
The greeks are not known for their intelligence but for their world breaking gullibility. It takes a real effort to destroy a country in a few years time, and the greek nation is really in a league of it's own along with the Libyans and the Syrians.
Goodness gracious. The Opinium figure for the SNP is not a guess. It is called arithmetic! We know the SNP figure . We know the total Scottish sample. This is not really that complicated.
If I estimated what the other parties figures were then that would be a guess but I do not need to to cast doubt on your argument.
Your proposition that YouGov samples are accurate but those of Comres are not is just silly. Yougov suits your argument. Comres does not and therefore you claim one sub sample is better than another. It is not. They both have great limitations but at least the Opinium SNP score makes it 2-1 for my view on sub samples.
Finally the more likely / less likely question is in fact far more important than cross break party ratings. The limitations of cross breaks or sub samples is that they are too small to prevent bias in the sample. However the more likely/ less likely question should be valid regardless of the bias of the sub sample which would affect the level not the direction of support.
Thus the fact that it shows no difference at all from the UK rating is evidence that your "Scotland more favourable to Corbyn effect" does not in fact exist - except of course by selectively picking out the already flimsy evidence.
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
Makes no mention of Parliament or the PM.
The Queen always accepts the advice of the PM.
The Queen usually accepts the advice of the PM. The distinction is...important
Goodness gracious. The Opinium figure for the SNP is not a guess. It is called arithmetic! We know the SNP figure . We know the total Scottish sample. This is not really that complicated.
If I estimated what the other parties figures were then that would be a guess but I do not need to to cast doubt on your argument.
Your proposition that YouGov samples are accurate but those of Comres are not is just silly. Yougov suits your argument. Comres does not and therefore you claim one sub sample is better than another. It is not. They both have great limitations but at least the Opinium SNP score makes it 2-1 for my view on sub samples.
Finally the more likely / less likely question is in fact far more important than cross break party ratings. The limitations of cross breaks or sub samples is that they are too small to prevent bias in the sample. However the more likely/ less likely question should be valid regardless of the bias of the sub sample which would affect the level not the direction of support.
Thus the fact that it shows no difference at all from the UK rating is evidence that your "Scotland more favourable to Corbyn effect" does not in fact exist - except of course by selectively picking out the already flimsy evidence.
If you are using the UK figure from Opinium you are wrong, yougov's UK figure has the SNP/PC still on 5% across the UK because shifts in Scotland alone have much less impact on the UK figure where Scotland is only about 5-10% of the whole, however in Scotland alone the SNP is on 44%
Comres is also clearly wrong on subsamples as there is no way the Tories are ahead in Wales, the North and London when they were not even ahead there at the general election. The more likely/less likely figure is of course far less important that the actual voting share, because you can be more likely or less likely to vote for a party because of its new leader but still vote for it anyway. Thus the yougov figure for a gain of 4% in Scotland for Corbyn compared to 0.6% across the UK is clearly the most plausible
Syriza 145 ND 75 Golden Dawn 19 PASOK 17 Communists 15 River 10 Independent Greeks 10 Union of Centrists 9 Peoples Union 0
The greeks are not known for their intelligence but for their world breaking gullibility. It takes a real effort to destroy a country in a few years time, and the greek nation is really in a league of it's own along with the Libyans and the Syrians.
Well the Greeks knew what they were voting for and had an anti bailout party, in the Peoples Union and a pro bailout efficient party in the ND, it voted again for Syriza with a few centrist parties to vote for a bailout and austerity with a little anti austerity rhetoric, well they cannot really complain now
This poll is hardly surprising: by rights, the Tories should've won hardly any of these seats at the election, and only did so by dint of a massive, and massively successful, targeted promotional onslaught. The Tories will win these seats again, despite what the people say to the pollsters, if the Tories are equally persuasive in 2020.
Ben Carson says a Muslim should not be elected president
Carson, a devout Christian, says a president’s faith should matter to voters if it runs counter to the values and principles of America. Responding to a question during an interview broadcast Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” he described the Islamic faith as inconsistent with the Constitution. “I would not advocate that we put a Muslim in charge of this nation,” Carson said. “I absolutely would not agree with that.” http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-ben-carson-muslim-president-20150920-story.html
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
Makes no mention of Parliament or the PM.
The Queen always accepts the advice of the PM.
The Queen usually accepts the advice of the PM. The distinction is...important
The Queen is a constitutional monarch. The Prime Minister is elected (after a fashion) by the people. If the Queen were to use her power against the Prime Minister in that way, she would be on a very sticky wicket.
for that matter, a gentle acceptance that not every school, can deliver above-average teaching and not every student can achieve above-average grades (the DFE's civil servants would certainly fail maths)!
Mr Ydoethur. If you think, even for a moment, that everyone can be above average then you should be ritually flogged.
(Although it reminds me of the time that a friend of mine asked the new intake at his bulge bracket investment bank how many thought they were in the top 10% of the class and all of them put their hand up)
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
Makes no mention of Parliament or the PM.
The Queen always accepts the advice of the PM.
The Queen usually accepts the advice of the PM. The distinction is...important
It would be unsustainable for the monarch to overrule the PM, whether or not the army backed her, unless:
1. The government was proposing something close to lunatic and irreversible. 2. There was a clear majority of the country strongly opposed to that course of action.
Neither cancelling Trident nor leaving NATO is lunatic or irreversible. They might be mistakes but both would be mistakes that could be reversed. France left NATO. Big deal.
On the other hand, were the monarch or the army to directly interfere in the political process in a way not done for at least 150 years would be to risk the future of either institution. (There would still need to be an army but were it would have to be reconstituted with a change of oath).
I see the PB Tory wisdom of the crowds has proven its fallibility once again in Greece. Good work Syriza.
I've not noticed any PB Tory received wisdom that the Greeks won't vote for Syriza. Syriza winning but implementing EU rather than Syriza policies seems to be the general expectation of everyone here.
Plenty of people were saying they thought Syriza would be out pronto all year, right up until the exit polls came out. Now they've just got themselves a proper mandate yet again. The Greeks are well aware that the Euro cabal have a stranglehold on Greek policy whatever happens at the moment, but those voting for Syriza know they are at least trying to work out how to do something different rather than actively and happily colluding in the country's destruction - hence why they've been returned having hardly lost any of their voters.
I've taken the view that the Greek government is just window dressing for an external coup. It really doesn't matter who's nominally in charge, they aren't a sovereign state any longer.
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
Makes no mention of Parliament or the PM.
The Queen always accepts the advice of the PM.
The Queen usually accepts the advice of the PM. The distinction is...important
There'd be a constitutional crisis if she say refused to read out a Queen's speech.
Can anyone hand on heart-who doesn't wish Labour ill-believe they would have been more electable with Ed than with Jeremy?
This poll doesn't surprise me at all. The old order has the putrid smell of decay and that's not just the Tories. Corbyn's starting to look like a breath of fresh air.
Hand on heart yes. There were times that I was a lot less confident than JackW and thought that Ed could (disappointing though it would be to me) be PM. I think had he played his cards differently he might be PM now.
Corbyn though is a retrograde throwback to the past and will never be PM. The only question for Corbyn if he stays until an election is not will or won't he be PM but barring some national insanity how much lower will he set Labour's benchmark than what Foot got. It would take a miracle with Scotland as it is now for Corbyn to even reach Foot's seats.
Question for the history boffins - when was the last time the primary opposition party received less seats in two elections in a row? Or that the primary government party won more seats than they were governing with in two elections in a row?
I can't recall it happening in my lifetime off the top of my head, but its what will happen if Corbyn stays until 2020.
Agreed. If not for Scotland and the Tories' 40:40 strategy, Ed could indeed have been PM. I can't see *any* circumstances under which JC will be PM.
Pong.. Do you really want a Pres or PM who follows a murderous religion, to have his finger on the button, and is running a basically christian belief country..Only an idiot would trust such a person .You must always remember that one of the basic tenets and a major principle of Islam is to kill,by any and all means possible,all non believers..got that... ALL NON BELIEVERS..Fun eh.
Pong.. Do you really want a Pres or PM who follows a murderous religion, to have his finger on the button, and is running a basically christian belief country..Only an idiot would trust such a person .You must always remember that one of the basic tenets and a major principle of Islam is to kill,by any and all means possible,all non believers..got that... ALL NON BELIEVERS..Fun eh.
I take it you'll be voting for Jeremy, Tim or Nige if Sajid gets the Tory nod then ?
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
Makes no mention of Parliament or the PM.
The Queen always accepts the advice of the PM.
The Queen usually accepts the advice of the PM. The distinction is...important
There'd be a constitutional crisis if she say refused to read out a Queen's speech.
HYUFD..The Constitution is certainly no bar but when it was written the world was not being threatened on a daily basis by religious nutjobs who rigorously follow the dictates of the Koran
HYUFD..The Constitution is certainly no bar but when it was written the world was not being threatened on a daily basis by religious nutjobs who rigorously follow the dictates of the Koran
Indeed, but as I said it is for Americans to decide
Looks like the majority of Greek voters are inflicted with three diseases: amnesia, alzheimer's and blindness.
Tsipras is a classic example of the power of a charismatic leader, he has completely u-turned on his original policies and seen a breakaway from his party but has still been re-elected in large degree due to force of personality.
HYUFD.. Carson is right.. If a Muslim wants to run a country then there are plenty of them out there.. and some already have vacancies
Agree with that. The Chicago Tribune happily doesn't think the context quote is worth quoting so for completeness from a more thorough source elsewhere:
“I guess it depends on what that faith is,” Carson said. “But, if it’s inconsistent with the values of America, then of course it should matter. But if it fits within the realm of America and consistent with the Constitution, no problem.”
Carson is arguing that: (1) A candidate's faith matters in that their principles and values must be consistent with the values and principles in the US Constitution, and (2) Islam is not consistent with the values and principles in the US Constitution, therefore (3) He would not support an Islamic candidate.
First, it seems Tsipras has defied his critics (many of whom seem to post on here) and will return to power in Greece with ND well beaten off once again. I wonder how the markets will react to this in the morning. Tsipras has gambled and seems to have won - kudos (there's an appropriate word) to him.
Second, for all the fretting and frothing on here about what Jeremy Corbyn would or wouldn't do when it comes to foreign and security policy, Corbyn comes over as an intellectual giant compared to the cretins scrapping to be the GOP candidate for next year's Presidential election:
At least Rand Paul talks some sense - the much-lauded Carly Fiorina says we should "stop talking to Russia" which not even Ronald Reagan (in whose library the debate took place) contemplated.
On Syria and Iran, the likes of Bush, Rubio and Trump contrived to come up with policies much more likely to lead to armageddon than progress. Not once was the UK or any other NATO ally other than Germany mentioned.
However much some on here would wish to frighten the children with the prospect of Prime Minister Corbyn, the idea of a President Bush, Trump, Fiorina or Rubio is infinitely more frightening - let's just hope for all her current travails Hillary Clinton or perhaps Joe Biden wins. Obama hasn't been a huge foreign policy success admittedly but compared to the GOP hopefuls, he's another giant.
At least Rand Paul talks some sense - the much-lauded Carly Fiorina says we should "stop talking to Russia" which not even Ronald Reagan (in whose library the debate took place) contemplated.
She didn't say anything of the sort. She was merely making a rhetorical point that Putin's position will never be changed by talking. Inasmuch as you can take her literally her comment just meant that real progress won't be made until the post-Putin era.
Pong.. Do you really want a Pres or PM who follows a murderous religion, to have his finger on the button, and is running a basically christian belief country..Only an idiot would trust such a person .You must always remember that one of the basic tenets and a major principle of Islam is to kill,by any and all means possible,all non believers..got that... ALL NON BELIEVERS..Fun eh.
There people who describe themselves as muslims who are really horrible people. I wouldn't want them within a million miles of the levers of power.
No I am using the ACTUAL data from Opinium which gives both the sample number of SNP voters and the total Scottish sample not just the UK percentages. THE REST IS ARITHMETIC NOT GUESSWORK.
Your argument is totally circular. In reality YouGov sub samples have no more or less validity than either Comres or Opinium and are subject to the same sort of error since they have similar (small) Scottish samples. Two of these suggest the SNP is holding firm since the election or indeed increasing. One suggests a decrease. All are within the sub sample margin of error.
Therefore your conclusion is invalid unless you refuse to accept any data which does not fit your origonal proposition for which remember at that time you cited Comres - only to later dismiss it as a nonsense!
Finally, all recent proper Scottish poll data held before but in the expectation of a Corbyn win points to an increasing SNP vote. Of course we could dismiss all of this and instead concentrate on a single YouGov sub sample!
First, it seems Tsipras has defied his critics (many of whom seem to post on here) and will return to power in Greece with ND well beaten off once again. I wonder how the markets will react to this in the morning. Tsipras has gambled and seems to have won - kudos (there's an appropriate word) to him.
Second, for all the fretting and frothing on here about what Jeremy Corbyn would or wouldn't do when it comes to foreign and security policy, Corbyn comes over as an intellectual giant compared to the cretins scrapping to be the GOP candidate for next year's Presidential election:
At least Rand Paul talks some sense - the much-lauded Carly Fiorina says we should "stop talking to Russia" which not even Ronald Reagan (in whose library the debate took place) contemplated.
On Syria and Iran, the likes of Bush, Rubio and Trump contrived to come up with policies much more likely to lead to armageddon than progress. Not once was the UK or any other NATO ally other than Germany mentioned.
However much some on here would wish to frighten the children with the prospect of Prime Minister Corbyn, the idea of a President Bush, Trump, Fiorina or Rubio is infinitely more frightening - let's just hope for all her current travails Hillary Clinton or perhaps Joe Biden wins. Obama hasn't been a huge foreign policy success admittedly but compared to the GOP hopefuls, he's another giant.
Bush did say he would put Maggie Thatcher on the $10 dollar bill. Bush or Rubio would not be that bad, Bush for example refuted Trump by saying the Iran deal could not just be torn up, and Bush Snr was a competent foreign policy president in my view, if he follows him as a role model rather than his brother that would help. Bernie Sanders would not be a great president either and would make Obama look like a strong leader
Looks like the majority of Greek voters are inflicted with three diseases: amnesia, alzheimer's and blindness.
Tsipras is a classic example of the power of a charismatic leader, he has completely u-turned on his original policies and seen a breakaway from his party but has still been re-elected in large degree due to force of personality.
He is Brussels' man. Remember the Europhobes' neuralgia and apoplexy as the catastrophe reached its apotheosis and Tsipras resolved the chaos and crisis by giving up the drama and conceding to harmony, despite his rhetoric.
No I am using the ACTUAL data from Opinium which gives both the sample number of SNP voters and the total Scottish sample not just the UK percentages. THE REST IS ARITHMETIC NOT GUESSWORK.
Your argument is totally circular. In reality YouGov sub samples have no more or less validity than either Comres or Opinium and are subject to the same sort of error since they have similar (small) Scottish samples. Two of these suggest the SNP is holding firm since the election or indeed increasing. One suggests a decrease. All are within the sub sample margin of error.
Therefore your conclusion is invalid unless you refuse to accept any data which does not fit your origonal proposition for which remember at that time you cited Comres - only to later dismiss it as a nonsense!
Finally, all recent proper Scottish poll data held before but in the expectation of a Corbyn win points to an increasing SNP vote. Of course we could dismiss all of this and instead concentrate on a single YouGov sub sample!
Well it obviously does not give the full Scottish sample if you are using arithmetic to try and calculate which party got what when Opinium has not given you the full breakdown unlike yougov.
I suggest we hold forth until further subsamples from Scotland and polls from Scotland can be examined. However on the basis of subsamples given Comres' are completely out of tune with May's election results unlike yougov I suggest they be treated with some scepticism. In any case I was referring to the Comres national score
No Scottish poll data showed an increase in the SNP score beyond the 50% they won at the general election if Corbyn won, that is completely untrue, all showed Corbyn got his best results in Scotland and London. Indeed even Comres showed the SNP on 49%, so both yougov and comres today show the SNP below the result they got at the general election, even if the Comres swing was much less than the yougov swing which had the SNP on 44%
I think that the greek government of Syriza-Anel has been re-elected with a reduced majority, I think they will get around 151-153 seats out of 300 with the breakaway LAE under the 3% threshold, the best possible outcome for Tsipras.
On my numbers SYRIZA + ANEL is between 2 and 6 seats short of a majority, and will need either Potami or the Centrists to govern.
Pong.. Do you really want a Pres or PM who follows a murderous religion, to have his finger on the button, and is running a basically christian belief country..Only an idiot would trust such a person .You must always remember that one of the basic tenets and a major principle of Islam is to kill,by any and all means possible,all non believers..got that... ALL NON BELIEVERS..Fun eh.
Do you have a credible source for that?
And if it were true, how come the several million muslims in Britain haven't acted on it during the decades they've been here?
Or is it just your own twisted and prejudiced view of the world?
I think that the greek government of Syriza-Anel has been re-elected with a reduced majority, I think they will get around 151-153 seats out of 300 with the breakaway LAE under the 3% threshold, the best possible outcome for Tsipras.
On my numbers SYRIZA + ANEL is between 2 and 6 seats short of a majority, and will need either Potami or the Centrists to govern.
There's a political party called ANEL?
That's nearly as funny as UCUNF .
SYRIZA + ANEL look set for 155 (145+10)
Overall majority of 10...
Now just 0.08 of seat for one to flip from Commies to The River.
In fairness to anyone who thought Syriza would be out of power by now, given their capitulation and complete 180, this is one of those few occasions it feels appropriate to say that they are not the same party anymore, that Syriza of a year ago are out of power and that remaining is pretty unrecognizable it in what it is pledging to do.
Will be interesting to see which one sues on that comment!
snip
So it might be that the next Tory leader is a Minister of State or even a PPS at the moment. A lot will depend on when Cameron goes and whether any senior ministers resign over the European referendum, opening up positions for someone talented and ambitious to surge through the ranks as Major did in the dog days of Thatcher's government.
Not a chance. Cameron's successor will be from the present Cabinet - Major was Chancellor and had been briefly Foreign Secretary notwithstanding his meteoric rise. Javid only becomes a contender if Osborne's star wanes as a consequence of an economic relapse (which could easily happen in the next 3-4 years). But if all remains pretty calm, then the Chancellor must be overwhelming odds to suceed.
GOWNBPM
Poor Brookie, ought (albeit in your fervid malevolence) is not the equivalent of is (or indeed will be). I'll help with your return fare to Bogtrotter land.
Poor bogtrotter John several generations over here and you still can't decipher an acronym.
But He will never be prime minister, he's just unlikeable.
Except (he says with characteristic modesty) I know my party infinitely better than you do. Oh, how we chuckled at your principled and futile abstention in May
LOL when you're living in one of the safest blue seats you already know an abstention means nothing, though in spoling my ballot I did get to tell your election agent how shit Osborne is. :-)
As for knowing your party, I doubt it.
Tories like power and Grimla Wormtongues younger brother will keep them out of it.
He'll get passed over for someone electable.
I expect he smiled indulgently and, like me, thought, OK there's another nutter. And moved on.
Except of course you haven't, or you wouldn't be bringing up how I voted.
And you're backing a guy voters rate alongside Corbyn. Who's the nutter ?
Why are you so angry all the time>?
It's the DUP with a shade of LibDemmery that makes him so curmudgeonly.
Combine the red hand with Lib Dem yellow and you get... A court jester
Looks like the majority of Greek voters are inflicted with three diseases: amnesia, alzheimer's and blindness.
Tsipras is a classic example of the power of a charismatic leader, he has completely u-turned on his original policies and seen a breakaway from his party but has still been re-elected in large degree due to force of personality.
He is Brussels' man. Remember the Europhobes' neuralgia and apoplexy as the catastrophe reached its apotheosis and Tsipras resolved the chaos and crisis by giving up the drama and conceding to harmony, despite his rhetoric.
Indeed, I have much more personal respect for Yanis Varoufakis, although his policies are mad he at least stuck to his guns, Tsipras completely caved in on almost all his original policies to stay in the eurozone once Merkel had a word. On a personal level though there is no doubt Tsipras is likeable and charismatic and a brilliant snakeoil salesman
Lawson did though have one of the great titles for his memoirs - The View from Number 11. That's got to be up there with Butler's The Art of the Possible and the grand-daddy of them all, Geoffrey Howe's Conflict of Loyalty. It's sad that clever titles have gone so far out of fashion that Blair thought the mind-numbingly twee A Journey was suitable for his memoirs.
Mandelson's The Third Man wasn't a bad title.
'My Early Life'; which ended l believe '...lived happily ever after'
I always liked "This Sparrow's Flight' - requisite humility for a politician faced by the great leveller
In fairness to anyone who thought Syriza would be out of power by now, given their capitulation and complete 180, this is one of those few occasions it feels appropriate to say that they are not the same party anymore, that Syriza of a year ago are out of power and that remaining is pretty unrecognizable it in what it is pledging to do.
I'm talking about from the time of the last bailout and the surrender by Tspiras. The Greeks obviously disagree with your position.
I see the army don't seem that enthralled with Mr Corbyn.....
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny. 'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces. 'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
The armed forces arent accountable to the PM, and owes their only allegiance to HMQ.
----- I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me. -----
Makes no mention of Parliament or the PM.
The Queen always accepts the advice of the PM.
The Queen usually accepts the advice of the PM. The distinction is...important
There'd be a constitutional crisis if she say refused to read out a Queen's speech.
I'm on my blackberry so can't check, but I'd recommend reading up on (I think) the Curragh Incident. One of the more amusing episodes in Irish history.
In fairness to anyone who thought Syriza would be out of power by now, given their capitulation and complete 180, this is one of those few occasions it feels appropriate to say that they are not the same party anymore, that Syriza of a year ago are out of power and that remaining is pretty unrecognizable it in what it is pledging to do.
I'm talking about from the time of the last bailout and the surrender by Tspiras. The Greeks obviously disagree with your position.
As we were comparing different timescales, and I made very clear the timescale I was talking about, no thatdoesn't prove the Greeks disagree with my position in the slightest - that the Greeks accept the new Syriza position as the best option they've got doesn't make a difference that it is fundamentally different from what it was before. I don't even understand how you think that makes a difference to the point I was making - that they are offering something wholly different now than a year ago (had I not specified the period I was talking about, you might have had a point, but you don't) - when whether that new position is popular or not, or the best of a bad series of options, was not my point.
Nice try though, that's some good political debating, countering a point you'd rather have been made (or attempted) than what actually was made.
If you'd like another go, there's all sorts of points about Syriza I didn't make or was not talking about you could counter.
The Comres sub sample swing was 3 per cent TO the SNP - SNP DOWN 1, LABOUR DOWN 7.
The only full Westminster Scottish poll I have seen since the election is Survation in July which showed the SNP at 51 (up 1) and Labour at 21 (down 3). However, there have been no less than 8 Holyrood polls from Survation, MORI, YouGov and TNS. They show the SNP at an average of 57 and Labour an average of 21!
YouGov in September showed the SNP at the lowest on 51 and the most recent was Survation showing the SNP on 53% to Labour on 23!
Looks like the majority of Greek voters are inflicted with three diseases: amnesia, alzheimer's and blindness.
Tsipras is a classic example of the power of a charismatic leader, he has completely u-turned on his original policies and seen a breakaway from his party but has still been re-elected in large degree due to force of personality.
He is Brussels' man. Remember the Europhobes' neuralgia and apoplexy as the catastrophe reached its apotheosis and Tsipras resolved the chaos and crisis by giving up the drama and conceding to harmony, despite his rhetoric.
Indeed, I have much more personal respect for Yanis Varoufakis, although his policies are mad he at least stuck to his guns, Tsipras completely caved in on almost all his original policies to stay in the eurozone once Merkel had a word. On a personal level though there is no doubt Tsipras is likeable and charismatic and a brilliant snakeoil salesman
The problem people have with understanding Greek politics, is decoding what people really wanted and asked for.
The standard line is that Syriza wanted debt forgiveness to relieve the crushing burden of repaying the debt. So they could reverse austerity
- The debt payments were, in fact, pretty small. - The real issue was that with the debt, they couldn't borrow more. - The Greek economy of the last decade or 2 was built on massive deficit spending to pay current expenses - 10% or more - Austerity was the result of the credit card being cut up
The whole game theory thing was about trying to bluff the EU into forgiving enough debt to get international borrowing going again AND to get extra money GIVEN by the EU to fund starting deficit spending again. Economic reform would be (as usual for Greece) kicked down the road.
The shock was when the EU said, No, No and demanded the reforms up front. Tsipras folded, because it was utterly clear to everyone that the bluff had been called. To go to the Drachma would have created a hyper inflationary spiral - wiping out the savings of everyone in the country.
The Greek people wanted "No austerity" AND the Euro. The choices the EU offered were the Euro or the Drachma.
Tsipras settled for the Drachma and the Greek people have backed that decision.
Comments
Golden Dawn +1.0%
Yougov is the only poll today with a full Scottish subsample and other regional figures which look plausible, it has the SNP on 44%, Labour 28%, the Tories 21%. The more/less likely figure is irrelevant as it is favourables which are normally more important in giving the actual party score and even more so because yougov does indeed give the actual Scottish Labour score.
Until we get other full Scottish subsamples and other polls specifically for Scotland I will take the yougov score
The senior serving general, speaking anonymously to the Sunday Times, said Mr Corbyn's victory has been greeted with 'wholesale dismay' in the army. He added: 'There would be mass resignations at all levels and you would face the very real prospect of an event which would effectively be a mutiny.
'Feelings are running very high within the armed forces. You would see a major break in convention with senior generals directly and publicly challenging Corbyn over vital important policy decisions such as Trident, pulling out of Nato and any plans to emasculate and shrink the size of the armed forces.
'The Army just wouldn't stand for it. The general staff would not allow a prime minister to jeopardise the security of this country and I think people would use whatever means possible, fair or foul to prevent that. You can't put a maverick in charge of a country's security.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3241904/We-won-t-stand-Army-brass-warn-MUTINY-Jeremy-Corbyn-Prime-Minister.html#ixzz3mIhI4Vz4
Syriza 144
ND 75
Golden Dawn 19
PASOK 18
Communists 15
River 10
Independent Greeks 10
Union of Centrists 9
Peoples Union 0
Syriza 144
ND 75
Golden Dawn 20
PASOK 17
Communists 15
River 10
Independent Greeks 10
Union of Centrists 9
Peoples Union 0
Compared to January
Syriza -1.0%
SD +0.35%
GD +1.0%
Corbyn though is a retrograde throwback to the past and will never be PM. The only question for Corbyn if he stays until an election is not will or won't he be PM but barring some national insanity how much lower will he set Labour's benchmark than what Foot got. It would take a miracle with Scotland as it is now for Corbyn to even reach Foot's seats.
Question for the history boffins - when was the last time the primary opposition party received less seats in two elections in a row? Or that the primary government party won more seats than they were governing with in two elections in a row?
I can't recall it happening in my lifetime off the top of my head, but its what will happen if Corbyn stays until 2020.
-----
I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the generals and officers set over me.
-----
Makes no mention of Parliament or the PM.
Syriza 144
ND 75
Golden Dawn 19
PASOK 17
Communists 15
River 10
Independent Greeks 10
Union of Centrists 10
Peoples Union 0
Turnout estimate 54.62%
Syriza 145
ND 75
Golden Dawn 19
PASOK 17
Communists 15
River 10
Independent Greeks 10
Union of Centrists 9
Peoples Union 0
Goodness gracious. The Opinium figure for the SNP is not a guess. It is called arithmetic! We know the SNP figure . We know the total Scottish sample. This is not really that complicated.
If I estimated what the other parties figures were then that would be a guess but I do not need to to cast doubt on your argument.
Your proposition that YouGov samples are accurate but those of Comres are not is just silly. Yougov suits your argument. Comres does not and therefore you claim one sub sample is better than another. It is not. They both have great limitations but at least the Opinium SNP score makes it 2-1 for my view on sub samples.
Finally the more likely / less likely question is in fact far more important than cross break party ratings. The limitations of cross breaks or sub samples is that they are too small to prevent bias in the sample. However the more likely/ less likely question should be valid regardless of the bias of the sub sample which would affect the level not the direction of support.
Thus the fact that it shows no difference at all from the UK rating is evidence that your "Scotland more favourable to Corbyn effect" does not in fact exist - except of course by selectively picking out the already flimsy evidence.
ENP (votes) 4.5
ENP (seats) 3.2
LHI 12.8% (not very proportional)
Dave needs to watch these guys. They aren't his friends.
0.2 of a seat in it.
Peoples Union ticking up slightly 2.83%
Comres is also clearly wrong on subsamples as there is no way the Tories are ahead in Wales, the North and London when they were not even ahead there at the general election. The more likely/less likely figure is of course far less important that the actual voting share, because you can be more likely or less likely to vote for a party because of its new leader but still vote for it anyway. Thus the yougov figure for a gain of 4% in Scotland for Corbyn compared to 0.6% across the UK is clearly the most plausible
Carson, a devout Christian, says a president’s faith should matter to voters if it runs counter to the values and principles of America.
Responding to a question during an interview broadcast Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” he described the Islamic faith as inconsistent with the Constitution.
“I would not advocate that we put a Muslim in charge of this nation,” Carson said. “I absolutely would not agree with that.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-ben-carson-muslim-president-20150920-story.html
(Although it reminds me of the time that a friend of mine asked the new intake at his bulge bracket investment bank how many thought they were in the top 10% of the class and all of them put their hand up)
1. The government was proposing something close to lunatic and irreversible.
2. There was a clear majority of the country strongly opposed to that course of action.
Neither cancelling Trident nor leaving NATO is lunatic or irreversible. They might be mistakes but both would be mistakes that could be reversed. France left NATO. Big deal.
On the other hand, were the monarch or the army to directly interfere in the political process in a way not done for at least 150 years would be to risk the future of either institution. (There would still need to be an army but were it would have to be reconstituted with a change of oath).
It'd be interesting to see who'd win the GOP nomination if they used STV - do any pollsters ask people to rank the candidates?
.You must always remember that one of the basic tenets and a major principle of Islam is to kill,by any and all means possible,all non believers..got that... ALL NON BELIEVERS..Fun eh.
“I guess it depends on what that faith is,” Carson said. “But, if it’s inconsistent with the values of America, then of course it should matter. But if it fits within the realm of America and consistent with the Constitution, no problem.”
Carson is arguing that:
(1) A candidate's faith matters in that their principles and values must be consistent with the values and principles in the US Constitution, and
(2) Islam is not consistent with the values and principles in the US Constitution, therefore
(3) He would not support an Islamic candidate.
First, it seems Tsipras has defied his critics (many of whom seem to post on here) and will return to power in Greece with ND well beaten off once again. I wonder how the markets will react to this in the morning. Tsipras has gambled and seems to have won - kudos (there's an appropriate word) to him.
Second, for all the fretting and frothing on here about what Jeremy Corbyn would or wouldn't do when it comes to foreign and security policy, Corbyn comes over as an intellectual giant compared to the cretins scrapping to be the GOP candidate for next year's Presidential election:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2015/09/republican_party_s_presidential_candidates_on_foreign_policy_gop_contenders.html
At least Rand Paul talks some sense - the much-lauded Carly Fiorina says we should "stop talking to Russia" which not even Ronald Reagan (in whose library the debate took place) contemplated.
On Syria and Iran, the likes of Bush, Rubio and Trump contrived to come up with policies much more likely to lead to armageddon than progress. Not once was the UK or any other NATO ally other than Germany mentioned.
However much some on here would wish to frighten the children with the prospect of Prime Minister Corbyn, the idea of a President Bush, Trump, Fiorina or Rubio is infinitely more frightening - let's just hope for all her current travails Hillary Clinton or perhaps Joe Biden wins. Obama hasn't been a huge foreign policy success admittedly but compared to the GOP hopefuls, he's another giant.
But they're just the nutters.
Is there no nuance in your world?
No I am using the ACTUAL data from Opinium which gives both the sample number of SNP voters and the total Scottish sample not just the UK percentages. THE REST IS ARITHMETIC NOT GUESSWORK.
Your argument is totally circular. In reality YouGov sub samples have no more or less validity than either Comres or Opinium and are subject to the same sort of error since they have similar (small) Scottish samples. Two of these suggest the SNP is holding firm since the election or indeed increasing. One suggests a decrease. All are within the sub sample margin of error.
Therefore your conclusion is invalid unless you refuse to accept any data which does not fit your origonal proposition for which remember at that time you cited Comres - only to later dismiss it as a nonsense!
Finally, all recent proper Scottish poll data held before but in the expectation of a Corbyn win points to an increasing SNP vote. Of course we could dismiss all of this and instead concentrate on a single YouGov sub sample!
Trump has at times outpolled Clinton in match-ups. I think voters have priced in more scandal in their perceptions of Trump than of Clinton.
I imagine the markets will be supremely relaxed. Syriza and Tsipras are known quantities.
now 0.11 between Commies and The River
I suggest we hold forth until further subsamples from Scotland and polls from Scotland can be examined. However on the basis of subsamples given Comres' are completely out of tune with May's election results unlike yougov I suggest they be treated with some scepticism. In any case I was referring to the Comres national score
No Scottish poll data showed an increase in the SNP score beyond the 50% they won at the general election if Corbyn won, that is completely untrue, all showed Corbyn got his best results in Scotland and London. Indeed even Comres showed the SNP on 49%, so both yougov and comres today show the SNP below the result they got at the general election, even if the Comres swing was much less than the yougov swing which had the SNP on 44%
Venezuela will miss an interest payment in the next six months and enter default.
Ecuador will likely be 2Q17
That's nearly as funny as UCUNF .
And if it were true, how come the several million muslims in Britain haven't acted on it during the decades they've been here?
Or is it just your own twisted and prejudiced view of the world?
Overall majority of 10...
Now just 0.08 of seat for one to flip from Commies to The River.
Com 14
River 11
Nice try though, that's some good political debating, countering a point you'd rather have been made (or attempted) than what actually was made.
If you'd like another go, there's all sorts of points about Syriza I didn't make or was not talking about you could counter.
The Comres sub sample swing was 3 per cent TO the SNP - SNP DOWN 1, LABOUR DOWN 7.
The only full Westminster Scottish poll I have seen since the election is Survation in July which showed the SNP at 51 (up 1) and Labour at 21 (down 3). However, there have been no less than 8 Holyrood polls from Survation, MORI, YouGov and TNS. They show the SNP at an average of 57 and Labour an average of 21!
YouGov in September showed the SNP at the lowest on 51 and the most recent was Survation showing the SNP on 53% to Labour on 23!
None of this evidence supports your argument.
The standard line is that Syriza wanted debt forgiveness to relieve the crushing burden of repaying the debt. So they could reverse austerity
- The debt payments were, in fact, pretty small.
- The real issue was that with the debt, they couldn't borrow more.
- The Greek economy of the last decade or 2 was built on massive deficit spending to pay current expenses - 10% or more
- Austerity was the result of the credit card being cut up
The whole game theory thing was about trying to bluff the EU into forgiving enough debt to get international borrowing going again AND to get extra money GIVEN by the EU to fund starting deficit spending again. Economic reform would be (as usual for Greece) kicked down the road.
The shock was when the EU said, No, No and demanded the reforms up front. Tsipras folded, because it was utterly clear to everyone that the bluff had been called. To go to the Drachma would have created a hyper inflationary spiral - wiping out the savings of everyone in the country.
The Greek people wanted "No austerity" AND the Euro. The choices the EU offered were the Euro or the Drachma.
Tsipras settled for the Drachma and the Greek people have backed that decision.