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His failure to appoint any women to the so-called ‘top jobs’ whilst controversially choosing John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor got his leadership off to a rough start.
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Good article Keiran, and you're right to identify the value in Johnson being 25/1. The only history I can see repeating itself now is the party being too cautious - as they were with both Brown and Miliband. Everyone might want Corbyn out but the MPs and (s)electorate will have very different views on who the replacement leader should be.
That a huge number of new members have been those Corbyn supporting types that Kinnock spent most of the 1980s getting rid of, and with JC talking about party reforms handing more power to the members at the expense of the MPs, the job of replacing him with someone half way electable to the general public becomes that much more difficult.
Comrade Postie for the 2020 General Election.
Maybe, just maybe, it is dawning on him after 50 years of rigid views, that politics at the top table is not about 100%-0% choices, but a lot that are a very nuanced 51%-49%.
Angela Eagle, who will deputise at PMQs in her role as Shadow First Secretary of State, should be backed (currently 20/1) if, and only if, she can lay a glove on George Osborne (or even David Cameron). Otherwise, wait and see who shines. Things that make you go hmm: Stella Creasy is not in the Shadow Cabinet despite coming second in the Deputy race.
He really needs a good Chief of Staff who knows this stuff and can drag him into looking like a statesman. As Ed discovered, the first impressions count for a lot and JC, like Ed, doesn't look the part and doesn't act like a potential PM - and really needs a trip to the tailor and the barber whether he likes it or not! Remember that most non-politics-geeks will have barely heard of him until this week, so this is very much the first impression forming now among the general population.
https://youtu.be/bWLN7rIby9s
I do not think that Johnson is the answer. He is too old, has admitted his lack of competence when he stood down as SCOE and most importantly is too genial of guy. Restoring the Labour party to sanity requires someone who has a lot of fight in their belly and is willing to confront a new generation of Militants. Even at 25/1 i do not think him value.
If Corbyn hangs on for a couple of years there might not be time for a night watchman, they'll need another Kinnock willing to do the job for a decade. Starmer is 53 now, could plausibly do the job until 2025 and conceivably do it until 2030 if elected PM.
Edit: In fact, looking at the next leader odds with Jarvis and Umunna the two favourites, there's value in almost anyone else given the changes in the party since the election. The hard left have already taken over, there's not much chance of a centrist getting the job next time around.
Considering Corbyn has been favourite for the role he seems woefully unprepared. He has not thought through what he wants to do and how to go about doing it. The combination of his oppositionist views and his lack of leadership ability is going to destroy him and his party.
If JC lasts past Conference it will probably take a couple of years to get rid of him, given the mandate from the size of his victory.
Corbyn is not Labour's IDS. That was Ed. Corbyn is uncharted territory. Far more extreme, unappealing and media unsavvy than anything any major party has ever put in front of voters before.
I'd also argue there's another major difference: IDS won the Tory leadership on his anti-Europe, small state, socially conservative platform. Corbyn won on who he was not. He was not Burnham, Cooper or Kendall; he was not a representative of the machine; he was not New Labour; he was not part of or close to the last Labour government; he was not pro-Iraq; he was not a supporter of welfare cuts; and so on. The Labour selectorate saw Corbyn as something different and new after years of conformity, pained triangulation and two crushing electoral defeats. He was a conduit for their despair and someone they could project their hopes onto. That's why he won such a mandate.
Now, of course, and quite rightly, the Tories and the media will hold the Labour party to account for the choice it made. Corbyn's record, back story and incompetence are all fair game. But from a practical point of view, and for betting purposes, it would be wise not to believe Corbyn is untouchable. The big problem with being the hope candidate is that you can only disappoint. Throw in endless unforced errors, desperately poor communication skills, dismall polls, electoral setbacks and bad decision-making, and that process of disillusion could (I'd argue will) accelerate.
The next Labour leader is currently sitting on the backbenches and will, in all likelihood, be in place by the start of 2017. Dan Jarvis still looks a good bet to me. But I would not rule out Yvette Cooper either.
In reality, I think he'll limp through this year and next (just) because I don't think Labour will make their next move until the EU referendum outcome and that of the next Conservative leader is clear.
2-3 years out from the next general election starts to sharpen the brain.
It's such a shame he joined the gravy train and did not learn all the lessons of 18 years in opposition.
Labour need to move on at least 1 generation, arguably 2. A market where your money is tied up for nearly 5 years doesn't seem to me to be very attractive (I will have forgotten about any bet by then) but I would go for someone much, much younger like Dan Jarvis. If Corbyn collapses quickly it may be too soon for him but if he soldiers on (well he wouldn't do that but you know what I mean) Jarvis has time to create a media profile and a following. He should get on with it.
I've argued here before that Corbyn will not lead Labour into the next election. In the latest Kuenssberg interview, he ducks the question again
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34272636 from 12:50.
I think Alan Johnson is too old and too reluctant. I know we are looking at value rather than likelihood but I don't think even 25/1 is value. Incidentally you can lay him at 20/1 on Betfair so it is value if you get on quick at 25/1 and lay at 20/1.
Tom Watson is the man. The public will see a lot of him. He is a safe pair of hands. I think he will work well with Corbyn who will willingly hand over to him when the time is right.
What a mess that party is in if he's being tipped as leader 5 years hence.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=kids+company&safe=active&prmd=niv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAmoVChMI8r_a3LT9xwIVC34aCh3Oight#imgrc=r3fvn98BmBIG-M:
They don't to, the loony left is doing that for them.
The Blairites should split and form New Labour (the only Labour brand to win elections this century)
When I posed this before the issue raised was lack of funds
His lack of a Shadow role is curious but in fairness trying to keep a Corbyn led Labour party even vaguely coherent is going to be a full time job. I just wonder if it will allow the public to get to know him better and even more whether the public will like him when they do.
It is strange he is not going to get to cover for Corbyn during any absences (and Labour need to start thinking up good reasons not to be there after yesterday). That would have been a chance to show whether he is up to the mark. His current role is going to give him very little opportunity to show the PLP what he can do.
1) He's only slightly younger than Corbyn;
2) He's been effectively retired from frontline politics for five years;
3) He's had about four chances to take the Labour leadership and every time he has bottled it. Had he moved decisively against Brown in 2008/9, Labour would surely have won enough seats in 2010 to make their own coalition with the Liberal Democrats - and that's something I don't think Labour members will have forgotten or forgiven.
4) He's blokeish, and people like him, and he's got a good back story. But he's also not the, if we're honest, the best Commons performer. Grayling had him in trouble at the despatch box a few times. I don't think he would shine against the Tories in opposition, and from the backbenches he won't get the chance.
So although 14/1 is slightly longer perhaps than it should be, it's a bet I can't see winning and therefore I don't think it's value.
Watson is as @Barnesian and @foxinsoxuk say a very strong contender - after all, he's the deputy leader. However, if Labour decide to depose Corbyn and rally round a greybeard who commands general respect and who is pretty senior in the parliamentary party, after we have finished pointing and laughing at the flying pigs I think the value bet is Hilary Benn. He doesn't have any major enemies, people like him, he's not a bad Commons performer and he was the de facto no. 2 in Labour until last week - you'd still put him in the top 5 after Corbyn, Macdonnell, Watson and theoretically Eagle. Therefore, he's likely to remain a key figure and somebody who could build up a head of steam quickly in case of need, as Howard did. And of course, he's a Benn, so the left might just rally to him for old times' sake (they can be quite sentimental in Labour - it's one of the pleasanter things about them).
I don't say it's necessarily likely to happen, but I do think it's possible, and the 33/1 Ladbrokes are offering seem to me absurdly long. I'd say 10/1 would be more like it. So there would be value in that bet.
The reception of the new Labour members may well be similar to this:
https://youtu.be/iS-0Az7dgRY
Imagine that multiplied tenfold all over the news at six - how would Labour continue with their 'public school bullies' line after that without being met by laughter?
I have never seen her but Heidi Alexander's profile looks interesting
'I feel uneasy - nothing dreadful has happened for 20 minutes'.
Labour must be feeling the same way!
And with that, I am off to work. Have a good day everyone.
I think Yvette will regret posing with that "#RefugeesWelcome" sign - if she did become leader, UKIP would have that put on every poster in traditional Labour areas.
Am I right that in the event of a challenge to the leader under current regulations the incumbent is eligible to stand without seeking any parliamentary nominations? If Corbyn had the aim of embedding a left bias to Labour it will be through manipulation the structures to keep the left dominant in the party. That aim is likely to impact the identity of the next Labour leader.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/sep/16/corbyns-labour-is-a-party-without-a-point-led-by-a-rebel-with-a-cause
FPT (2) ago: Mr. T, that's an issue. Accepting and facing reality rather than wallowing in self-pity (which not only means more therapy than should be needed but also decreases the chance of moving on in a positive way) is what it should be about. It's not dissimilar to some aspects of the charity industry. After all, if Britain's ornithological health is perfect, what's the point of the RSPB?
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. My grandpa had Alzheimer's, and that was very difficult on my father.
MrsB, the toga is only for grand gatherings of the House of Haddock.
No! Really?
No, Johnson's time has come & gone - Labour are hardly going to depose one useless old duffer to replace him with another one.....
Undoubtedly an improvement on the incumbent, though, and his very lack of ambition would prove an advantage if he were advocated as a caretaker.
Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.
Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.
Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.
That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.
This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.
Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.
Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.
He's repeatedly said he's not up for it. He doesn't have the aura of competence that Howard had (isn't the GP contract his fault?) And he's too old
She is also extraordinarily rude, always talking across any other guests when she is interviewed.
The bigger problem is lack of public support for the new labour brand I'd have thought.
If you compare her twin to her, Maria comes across much better despite identical voices and accents, purely because she isn't permanently scowling at the camera.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/09/corbyn-is-doing-the-job-as-he-understands-it-and-as-his-supporters-intended/?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=93449ff24f-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-93449ff24f-69703313
I'd imagine they'd have a pretty reasonable public support but virtually no activist base.
Corbyn is a broken man after 5 days in the job. He is never going to bee there in 2018.
They seem pretty reasonable. Oh, and its not a positive article about Corbyn, if you have the attention to read past about the third paragraph. It's basically saying that, no matter how these various slips and mishaps go down, he's not going anywhere, for better and, much more likely, for worse.
Apart from the brief periods of Blairism in the nineties and Wilsonism in the sixties the Labour party has never been serious about looking like an alternative government. The Conservatives however have always lusted after power. We are entering a period of unhealthy blue hegemony. The lights are going out all over the Labour party, we will not see them re-lit in our (political) lifetimes.
GBH may be worth a re-run too, or Our Friends in the North.
Although Harman has also stepped back from the front line, she's not retired quite so obviously as Johnson has. She is also - in case it's escaped anyone's attention - a woman.
Benn, another in the 60+ age-group, enabling young cardinals to pick old popes, is still on the front bench and so could potentially straddle the party loyalists and Corbynistas with the pragmatists who want something approximating to competence. Handling Corbyn's foreign policy may be less of a problem than some think. Corbyn's general policy is not that unpopular; it's the associations he's made in pursuing it that leave him weak.
Renault will cease to be an engine supplier for other teams. Still uncertain if they'll takeover Lotus:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34269127
Rossi will race for Manor for 5 races, replacing Merhi:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34270705
Thoughts from McNish on the Renault/Red Bull situation:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34252188
Maybe someone with more clout than me could persuade SPIN to offer one.
I've been laughing quietly about that all morning.
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 10 mins10 minutes ago
Does anyone really think DAs promotion is due to a 40 y.o. fling rather than the lifetime of friendship & shared activism since? Come on.
7 retweets 18 favourites
or then again perhaps not.
Corbyn is despised. That carries a baggage which will tarnish all who journey beside him.
PLP grow a pair and mount a challenge. The PLP show discipline and nominate one centre candidate. The PLP is smug and happy as there is only one candidate so no election by members affiliates supporters. On the last day of nominations Corbyn announces he will stand again. That will end well.
Scenario 2
Corbyn stays long enough to democratise the party so members, supporters and affiliates are empowered. PLP will no longer have the power to select candidates for leadership. That will end well.
Scenario three.
I don't think there is one.