politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of tonight’s GOP debate Ben Carson moves to within 4

Nate Silver's point is that, historically, polling in September has virtually no predictive value for the outcome of the nomination races. He also underscores the huge in-built advantages of the Establishment candidates (essentially Bush and Clinton in this cycle) over the long haul of the nomination process, although this advantage, while huge, is no guarantee. Just ask Hillary (2008)

Fox News very influential on race.They like Carson but when push comes to shove will probably get behind Bush.The more leftish channels Bloomberg and NBC like Kasich.

CORBYN WILL NOT CAMPAIGN TO LEAVE THE EU:

"Speaking to the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg later on Wednesday, Mr Corbyn insisted he would not campaign for the UK to leave the European Union, while vowing to fight any moves towards a more free-market relationship."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34264683

FPT: Condolences to Mr TimT on your loss and hope that life improves.

GeoffM said:

oxfordsimon said:

Blimey, just been reading about Carson. For a medical man, he is remarkably stupid. How he is able to just ignore scientific fact because of his 'faith' is, quite frankly, scary.

Not someone I would ever want to see hold any power.

What have you read which leads you to this? Any useful links please?

(a perfectly genuine question - I quite liked what little I knew about him but haven't read around the candidate at all)

Only his Wiki entry (which, of course, may not be entirely without bias)

But for a man with a scientific background to be a denier of evolution is deeply scary - as is his linking of marriage equality with bestiality.

MikeL said:

CORBYN WILL NOT CAMPAIGN TO LEAVE THE EU:

"Speaking to the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg later on Wednesday, Mr Corbyn insisted he would not campaign for the UK to leave the European Union, while vowing to fight any moves towards a more free-market relationship."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34264683

Who is running Corbyn's team in Labour's inner circle.

MikeL said:

CORBYN WILL NOT CAMPAIGN TO LEAVE THE EU:

"Speaking to the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg later on Wednesday, Mr Corbyn insisted he would not campaign for the UK to leave the European Union, while vowing to fight any moves towards a more free-market relationship."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34264683

There is no reason to believe there will ever be a social Europe like Corbyn hopes for.

Year in Year out, Arsenal bed-block the Champions League with their raking in of £ and little else.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Year in Year out, Arsenal bed-block the Champions League with their raking in of £ and little else.

Give the Foxes a chance! Arsenal up next at home for us, and hopefully they will rest a few players for the CL on the Tuesday.

All hail the Tinkerman!

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

CORBYN WILL NOT CAMPAIGN TO LEAVE THE EU:

"Speaking to the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg later on Wednesday, Mr Corbyn insisted he would not campaign for the UK to leave the European Union, while vowing to fight any moves towards a more free-market relationship."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34264683

Does this put Corbyn in conflict with the unions then, if Cameron gets changes in EU employment rights?

Spectacular....

Corbyn just lost his only card.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Year in Year out, Arsenal bed-block the Champions League with their raking in of £ and little else.

At least Arsenal get into the CL.

I will be watching the debate tonight, from the sounds of it Trump will attack Fiorina as a useless and corrupt CEO that destroyed the companies she worked for, while Fiorina will attack Trump as a sexist b@stard along with the CNN moderators.

As for that WBUR New Hampshire poll, they have never done a poll before so we can't compare it with anything.

Metatron said:

Fox News very influential on race.They like Carson but when push comes to shove will probably get behind Bush.The more leftish channels Bloomberg and NBC like Kasich.

None of them will ever win:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/joe-sandler-clarke/journalism-in-age-of-corbyn

"Political journalists have failed to predict all of the major events of the last year. They need to start asking themselves serious questions."

Scrapheap_as_was said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Year in Year out, Arsenal bed-block the Champions League with their raking in of £ and little else.

Give the Foxes a chance! Arsenal up next at home for us, and hopefully they will rest a few players for the CL on the Tuesday.

All hail the Tinkerman!

Feel free to turn them over big-style!!!

Your wish is our command!

Speedy said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

CORBYN WILL NOT CAMPAIGN TO LEAVE THE EU:

"Speaking to the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg later on Wednesday, Mr Corbyn insisted he would not campaign for the UK to leave the European Union, while vowing to fight any moves towards a more free-market relationship."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34264683

Does this put Corbyn in conflict with the unions then, if Cameron gets changes in EU employment rights?

Spectacular....

Corbyn just lost his only card.

He's flip-flopping on policy so much (oh, and singing, while we're at it) - are we sure Burnham lost?

OK, so I have now watched PMQs. JC did well for a first outing, and it wasn't just him reading out the questions he had been sent (mine didn't get picked - and it wasn't the one about Social Democracy and Democratic Socialism either!).

Next up - conference. Maybe we will see some theatrical walk-outs or tearing up of party membership cards by the Blairite residue.

As an aside, will the BBC bother to cover the Lib Dem conference this year? It ought not get much more coverage than the Greens get together.

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

If Corbyn achieved anything ... PMQ's was deadly boring, Corbyn droned on trying to play man of the people.

FWIW Corbyn is a condemned man, out of his own mouth and by his actions. He is on political death row. What he achieved today was a stay of execution/.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

I thought nothing could be more horrifying than John and Edwina.... I was wrong.

SeanT said:

Catastrophic News at Ten for Corbyn. Again.

Ummed and erred about whether he would kneel before the Queen at the PC, said he would 'consult with colleagues', perhaps he could nod?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Bit of a ladies man isn't he!

That was a very uncomfortable interview that Corbyn did, the awkwardness oozed out especially of the privy council.

@simonsketch: The Tory trajectory is the opposite of the usual. 1) Hung parliament. 2) Slim majority. 3) Landslide.

A majority of voters (54 per cent) say that they do not trust Mr Corbyn to take the right decisions on defence compared with 20 per cent who do.

Only 22 per cent trust Mr Corbyn to take the right decisions on terrorism against 49 per cent who do not trust him to do so.

Economic trust at 23% gives Labour a ceiling of about 27% on election day.

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Revolting.

No comment.

Would Carson be better than Corbyn? All political questions must now be frame in terms of Corbyn.

The happy hour debate is now 40 minutes away - CNN has been camped out in Simi Valley for 3 days pushing this debate. Quite amazing.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Now there’s a comment I wished I hadn’t read…

Speedy said:

That was a very uncomfortable interview that Corbyn did, the awkwardness oozed out especially of the privy council.

It just points out the utterly undemocratic nature of the United Kingdom. If being a democrat prevents you from any office of state, the country needs reformed.

The Oath of Allegiance and membership of the Privy Council need abolished,

OMHG.

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Please tell me that's a wind-up.........

No, it's a rumour that has been doing the rounds for a few years. I guess The Times finally found someone willing to give, err, eyewitness statements.

If I read the Times story, it is Randy Jezbollah's first wife who has spilled the beans

She's said that she separated from her husband because his commitment to politics meant he never took her to the cinema or nightclubs.

The Scottish secretary will use a keynote speech marking the first anniversary of the referendum to launch a scathing attack on the first minister’s enthusiasm for another vote on independence.

Mr Mundell, who will be speaking at the University of Edinburgh, will mock assurances that the poll was a once-in-a-lifetime event and state: “The sovereign will of the Scottish people is set aside as though it counted for nothing and the first minister openly acknowledges that she’ll try to hold a second referendum just as soon as she thinks she has a chance of winning it.

“It is as though the votes of two million Scots can just be set aside as an unfortunate but peripheral setback on the road to independence.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4559184.ece

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Bit of a ladies man isn't he!

They must be blind - or desperate.

His 3rd wife is quite a stunner (awaits brickbats!) and dresses smartly. He must have something going for him!

Ed seemed to have little trouble engaging the affections of accomplished, attractive women as well.

Why would the Times commission a poll but NOT include a proper voting intention question?!?

kle4 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Bit of a ladies man isn't he!

They must be blind - or desperate.

His 3rd wife is quite a stunner (awaits brickbats!) and dresses smartly. He must have something going for him!

Ed seemed to have little trouble engaging the affections of accomplished, attractive women as well.

And of course several people in Chelsea kit followed the established political tradition by scoring tonight.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Please tell me that's a wind-up.........

I wish it was. It's true.

Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott bumped uglies, they played hide the purple parsnip etc

To paraphrase one of your previous comments TSE.
Did they go Baker Street?

LOOK.. Some of us are about to get some zzz's , such a disgusting thought will keep people awake with its vileness.. Eeeewwwwwwwwww...

Danny565 said:

Why would the Times commission a poll but NOT include a proper voting intention question?!?

To punish us.

Speedy said:

That was a very uncomfortable interview that Corbyn did, the awkwardness oozed out especially of the privy council.

I was gobsmacked at just how uncomfortable he looked in that bit. At times he looked genuinely quite unsettled by the whole thing.

After yesterday's headlines, Im dumbfounded that he hadn't got some pre-prepared line on the monarchy. Something along the lines of: "I obviously hold personal views and I do find the concept of hereditary position rather archaic, however I appreciate a lot of people in the country feel differently. I don't want my personal views to get in the way of the big issues that I want to bring up as leader of the opposition, and I will out of respect for my role as leader of the opposition abide by the traditions of our current system." Ok, it's a bit blustery and maybe a bit disingenuous, but that would be an answer that would close things down a bit more.

As it is, he looks shifty, evasive and reinforces all the negative perceptions.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Please tell me that's a wind-up.........

I wish it was. It's true.

Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott bumped uglies, they played hide the purple parsnip etc

To paraphrase one of your previous comments TSE.
Did they go Baker Street?

Yellow Card!

(and it's change at Baker Street)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Please tell me that's a wind-up.........

I wish it was. It's true.

Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott bumped uglies, they played hide the purple parsnip etc

One image I did not want tonight is Diane Abbott playing with Jeremy Corbyn's purple parsnip!

Apologies TSE, I couldn't resist it :-)

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Apologies TSE, I couldn't resist it :-)

Don't worry.

I will in no way make any smutty innuendos about this in any upcoming thread headers.

Tomorrow will Corbyn talk about pulling out of Diane Abbott The EU?

SquareRoot said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Please tell me that's a wind-up.........

I wish it was. It's true.

Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott bumped uglies, they played hide the purple parsnip etc

To paraphrase one of your previous comments TSE.
Did they go Baker Street?

LOOK.. Some of us are about to get some zzz's , such a disgusting thought will keep people awake with its vileness.. Eeeewwwwwwwwww...

Is there something about Baker Street I should know?

Cyclefree said:

SquareRoot said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Please tell me that's a wind-up.........

I wish it was. It's true.

Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott bumped uglies, they played hide the purple parsnip etc

To paraphrase one of your previous comments TSE.
Did they go Baker Street?

LOOK.. Some of us are about to get some zzz's , such a disgusting thought will keep people awake with its vileness.. Eeeewwwwwwwwww...

Is there something about Baker Street I should know?

Yes. But it is very disgusting sexual innuendo that a lady like you should not know about.

Only us filthy sex obsessed ex public schoolboys find it funny.

Cyclefree said:

SquareRoot said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ewww The Times are reporting Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were lovers in the late 70s

Please tell me that's a wind-up.........

I wish it was. It's true.

Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott bumped uglies, they played hide the purple parsnip etc

To paraphrase one of your previous comments TSE.
Did they go Baker Street?

LOOK.. Some of us are about to get some zzz's , such a disgusting thought will keep people awake with its vileness.. Eeeewwwwwwwwww...

Is there something about Baker Street I should know?

AS you are a lady definitely NO>. but if you insist Google change at baker St in the urban dictionary