politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB 7 points ahead in new Populus online poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB 7 points ahead in new Populus online poll
It has done a lot of work for the Conservative party and Michael Ashcroft over the years and, indeed, the former boss, Andrew Cooper, now works at Number 10.
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In that sense it will be a case of UKIP out of sight, out of mind, and treating them like that for GE polling makes sense. For EU elections polling they should get a prompt though.
Given that the polling company has your postcode, this wouldn't be hard to set up.
In fact this poll doesn't show much change from their last telephone poll of 16 December 2012, which was Con 29, Lab 40, LD 11.
Yougov always shows similar oversampling of UKIP IDers in it's online samples . Whether this is caused by UKIP supporters stacking online polling panels or being keener to respond to polls when asked or some other reason I do not know but it is surely worth some investigation of this phenomenon . .
As we know, the pesky realities of actual votes cast and counted, can make a mockery of even the most golden of rules.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/brendanoneill2/100226457/to-owen-jones-and-other-middle-class-leftists-horny-handed-working-people-are-an-exotic-tribe-to-be-fawned-over-and-photographed/
YouGov’s data indicates that Republicans were slightly keener than Democrats to respond to the second survey. This is consistent with other occasions when polls have tended to show movement after specific events, notably post-convention bounces. The figures for Republican ID tend to rise after Republican conventions, and for Democratic ID to rise after Democratic conventions. Past panel-based surveys indicate that this reflects shifts in response rates among Democrat and Republican voters, not significant changes in voters’ attitudes to each party.
http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/10/23/obama-stays-ahead-just/
Incidentally, it seems unlikely that the following are both true:
1) UKIP supporters are fired up and excited
2) Not prompting for UKIP means they are being hugely under-represented.
It is silly not to prompt for UKIP. After all, the ballot paper and General Election publicity will prompt them.
As I have already posted prompting or not prompting did not effect the UKIP figures in this poll . The weighting for Party ID did effect it greatly .
"At the weekend Mr Jones spoke at the Durham Miners’ Gala, and the whole thing revealed how anthropological the modern radical Left has become, the extent to which youthful Leftists now treat working-class people as exotic creatures in a political zoo to be photographed and patted. The gala was embarrassingly described by that high priest of chattering-class values, Giles Fraser, as being all about “the banners, the bands and the beer”, a means for former mining communities “colourfully to proclaim [their] nobility”.
They’re the salt of the earth, these rough-handed northerners, and no mistake! According to a Sky News report, Mr Jones “spoke for the people”. What people? The London-based media professionals he hobnobs with?
...Mr Jones and his media friends treated Durham’s miners the same way other middle-class youngsters treat villagers they happen upon in a rural bit of Rwanda: as intriguingly and effortlessly decent, noble creatures who one must simply be photographed standing next to. They tweeted pics of themselves with these cute creatures. In his speech, Mr Jones referred to the miners as “ordinary working people” (ordinary: “regular, normal, customary” – OED) and said these poor, grafting folk are often “faceless, forgotten, ignored”. Not any more – now they’re all over Twitter and Facebook and are having their nobility celebrated in the Guardian, courtesy of their middle-class, Dickensian patrons down in London.
It’s so extraordinarily patronising. "
Netkipper ?
Yup, that kind of language is unbelievably embarrassing ...
IInstead, the beating heart of the occasion is in the parade of banners and brass bands through the most beautiful city in the country, each representing one of the pits in the once-mighty Durham coalfield.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10179042/Heres-how-the-Conservatives-can-win-back-the-working-class.html
"I went to the Durham Miners’ Gala on Saturday, as I’ve done most years since I was a child growing up in nearby Consett..."
Could Owen Jones say the same I wonder?
Jones book 'chavs' shows he utterly fails to understand (deliberately? ) a difference between working class people and the workless.
Yet to me the gulf between the working and the workless is massive.
Personally I have a huge respect for people who work for low pay. I have a thousand times more respect for the person who cleans the toilets at waterloo than a family of long term workless.The low paid working class are a world away from the 'workless' for me.
Indeed, I have more respect for the cleaner than I do for the person who runs railtrack.
And this is where the left is going wrong. Just today we hear the TUC say most of the jobs created by the tories are 'low paid' jobs. Ie not jobs at all really. Not worthy of respect. Only mugs would take them.
And yet for me the people doing these jobs are worthy of the maximum respect. And they deserve to be represented, helped and rewarded.
Ed Miliband should be putting as much distance as possible between his party and the views of Owen Jones if he wants to win back working class voters.
You & tim seem to disagree on this one.
But I agree with you about Owen Jones,
Same with Russell Brand
So I switch over!
Skelton seems to advocate freezing or cutting fuel duty and jacking up the lower band tax thresholds ever higher.
It wouldn;t surprise me at all if the government did just that before we get to 2015.
"Yup, that kind of language is unbelievably embarrassing ...
IInstead, the beating heart of the occasion is in the parade of banners and brass bands through the most beautiful city in the country, each representing one of the pits in the once-mighty Durham coalfield."
"Whether this is caused by UKIP supporters stacking online polling panels or being keener to respond to polls when asked or some other reason I do not know but it is surely worth some investigation of this phenomenon . . "
Surely the most likely is the average age of a UKIPer. Most are likely to have retired so have plenty of time to answer online polls and those that haven't are so curmudgeonly that they like nothing more than a good moan to a pollster that doesn't answer back.
WHAT a damning indictment of standards in the NHS that more than ten hospitals are being put in “special measures”.
Horrific as the Mid Staffordshire scandal was, it’s almost impossible to comprehend the scale of up to 13,000 excess deaths at 14 hospitals since 2005.
The NHS is meant to be our pride and joy. It should not be killing us.
Jeremy Hunt is right to take tough measures. Nothing is more important than making sure that hospitals are safe.
So it’s especially shocking that, according to Professor Sir Brian Jarman, Labour health ministers were more concerned with spin than doing their job.
It makes the party’s attacks on the Coalition’s handling of the NHS very hollow.
Ouch!
This pdf from 40 MPs has some interesting thoughts as well - its got an intro from the PM so its clearly being smiled on
http://www.platform10.org/2013/07/forty-from-the-forty/
http://www.platform10.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/40-from-the-40-Booklet.pdf
I would certainly agree that low paid people should be better off than they have been in the last 10 years.
I would prefer to to it by slashing their direct and indirect taxes rather than redistributing money already collected (partly) from them. Still, the effect remains the same I suppose.
Her amendments would remove the mandatory duty to hold a referendum by 31 December 2017, and substitute therefor, a power to hold a referendum if there is a transfer of power (fairly narrowly defined) to the European Union at any date in the future, and ensure that the only question on the ballot paper in such a referendum was ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?', as opposed to the questionable phrasing of the question in the current Bill. Her amendments would also significantly increase the level of Parliamentary scrutiny required to make the necessary Statutory Instruments to enable the referendum to take place, and impose a duty to consult with the Electoral Commission.
Is it enough of a policy, and in any event, does it even matter?
What did tim say about Owen Jones that you agree with?
I shall start by saying that I was once a TGWU member.
I assume Nick P has union membership. Anyone else?
"Of course, Mr Jones isn’t the only young Leftist who looks upon working people as ordinary yet heroic, savage as well as noble. Who can forget when the radical anti-tax dodging collective UK Uncut invited its impeccably middle-class members to attend one of its demos “dressed as a worker” – a PC version of blacking up. Or when a Royal College of Art Student designed “Arthur Scargill chic” clothes, including a green donkey jacket and tatty bobble hats, for youths to dress up in. It seems that for the new generation of Leftists, born after the political defeat of working-class movements, workers are just odd creatures from a bygone era, whose hilarious styles we should copy and whose sad, little villages we should visit and check into on Facebook.
The thrill modern Leftists get from shoulder-rubbing with working tribes might explain why they’re so hostile to any attempt by working people to move up the social ladder, to stop being working class. Mr Jones heaps opprobrium on these folk in his book, accusing them of having been won over by Thatcherite “dog-eat-dog individualism” and failing to celebrate their “working classness” (oh, Jesus)."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100226375/the-left-has-lost-its-moral-compass-on-welfare/
*tears of laughter etc.*
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/stars-insist-bbcs-patriotic-show-i-love-my-country-isnt-a-ukip-advert-8709615.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Aha, now I realise we're talking about Owen Jones ;-)
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 4m
When #Ukip caused an upset at 2009 Euro elections, they had 16,000 members. Ahead of the 2014 Euros, they now have almost twice that number
Populus is back doing voting intention surveys which is good news for poll watchers.
The firm built up a strong reputation with its series for the Times which was finally dropped by the paper last year.
It has done a lot of work for the Conservative party and Michael Ashcroft over the years and, indeed, the former boss, Andrew Cooper, now works at Number 10."
I'd presume it's doing this to raise it's profile and help try to get back big customers so it will be doing so with one eye on what the potential buyers of such polling want. In this case populous seems to think polling with no kipper prompt is most useful to that end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnZnnkJxoC8
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/ken-gill-trade-union-leader-who-put-the-interests-of-his-members-before-his-communist-politics-1695321.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQafqIufnNw
Richard Elvin @globalrichard
Labour spend £81,000 on South Shields by election defending one of their safest seats. UKIP must have had them worried.
'Same old nasty party.'
Where were you when the other nasty party was implementing identical cuts in the private housing rental sector?
*chortle*
It REALLY irks me that this is continually and constantly referred to as a "tax" when it is no such thing. Do people trying to make a 'point' place little or no value on accurate language to describe their grievance ?!?!?!
Under the triple lock? Perhaps it's made of cast iron?
Gullible tory euroscreptics only care when the kippers make them care.
Cammie will get to the bottom of it though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBvsGmnPq18
Judging by the torrent of bile that follows most articles on Cam in the Mail and the Telly, I've come to the conclusion that UKIP want to destroy what's left of the conservative party before they even bother about taking on labour....
Another 'closet kipper' seems unimpressed.
I somehow doubt Cameron bothers with your favourite swivel-eyed loon websites, why?
I somehow doubt Cameron bothers with your favourite swivel-eyed loon websites, why?
I misremember - is Cameron a lizard - or just controlled by the lizards ? And do the lizards smoke or just make mankind smoke ? Do tell - perhaps with a you tube link - everyone clicks on those - no they do really.
Bit early to be on the sauce so heavily isn't it 'arry?
Maybe you should clam down dear and take off the tinfoil hat.
Seriously, why would anybody bother to quote a Sun editorial as evidence of anything. It's bad enough when the PB Tories trot out Telegraph stuff as though it were the gospel truth - but the Sun, really?
Pointless Labour strikes again.
Bit early to be on the sauce so heavily isn't it 'arry?
Maybe you should clam down dear and take off the tinfoil hat.
Have you forgotten in your frothing that you were the one bringing out the grassy knoll theories ?
I see Eck has rediscovered his love of golf - and leapt out of the gorse to molest big Phil Mickelson as soon as he'd won the McOpen (and collected his fat appearance fee - the only reason he was there ). Only surprise was he wasn't twirling a saltire over his head at the same time..
Pity Salmond is back to hypocrisy writ large at Muirfield this weekend..
Shadow cabinet minister: The coalition's measures on this issue are totally wrong
Interviewer: Does this mean you'll reverse them if elected?
Shadow cabinet minister: Erm.............
No 'arry the only one who brought up lizards and grassy knolls is you. Either through hilariously transparent desperation or perhaps you really are seeing things. Maybe a period of sober abstention would be best for you as you seem to be getting quite shrill and hysterical.