Have you tried the David Icke website - or the Tap's blog ?
I somehow doubt Cameron bothers with your favourite swivel-eyed loon websites, why?
I misremember - is Cameron a lizard - or just controlled by the lizards ? And do the lizards smoke or just make mankind smoke ? Do tell - perhaps with a you tube link - everyone clicks on those - no they do really.
Bit early to be on the sauce so heavily isn't it 'arry? Maybe you should clam down dear and take off the tinfoil hat.
Have you forgotten in your frothing that you were the one bringing out the grassy knoll theories ?
No 'arry the only one who brought up lizards and grassy knolls is you. Either through hilariously transparent desperation or perhaps you really are seeing things. Maybe a period of sober abstention would be best for you as you seem to be getting quite shrill and hysterical.
"FIRST Minister Alex Salmond last night revealed that he will not attend the Open Championship at Muirfield this summer as he underlined his opposition to male-only golf clubs."
"Mr Salmond was known to be close to Cardinal Keith O'Brien, whose departure from office for inappropriate conduct has shaken the Church in Scotland.
Mr Salmond, leader of the Scottish National Party, said the Church had been "at the heart of the independence movement in Scotland" in the past, and that "without the Catholic Church there would be no Scotland.""
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins Richard Bacon clutches his head in his hand as Margaret Hodge explores line of succession of the Duchy of Cornwall once more
'Those PB Tories who believed Cameron on the EAW are looking pretty dim aren't they?'
Can't compete with PB lefties who believed 3 years of Red's posturing and opposition to cuts only for a complete u-turn on each and every cut, now that is dim.
I see Eck has rediscovered his love of golf - and leapt out of the gorse to molest big Phil Mickelson as soon as he'd won the McOpen (and collected his fat appearance fee - the only reason he was there ). Only surprise was he wasn't twirling a saltire over his head at the same time.. Pity Salmond is back to hypocrisy writ large at Muirfield this weekend..
Phil seems pretty chillaxed about it.
'This week Lefty partnered First Minister Alex Salmond in the pro-am at Castle Stuart prior to the first round of the Scottish Open. And he was pretty impressed by Wee Eck’s game. Mickleson admitted: “What’s cool is that, as a politician, he’s an excellent golfer. “He knows how to swing, he’s got good clubhead speed and a good touch around the greens. “You can tell that he’s played a lot of golf over the years and I always have respect for that.” Mickelson revealed that the pair also talked politics ahead of next year’s independence referendum. The American, 43, said: “We had a great conversation throughout the day, He’s got an outgoing personality and he’s easy to be around. “We had a great chat about golf and about politics — and I loved hearing his thoughts.”.
It's absolutely clear to me that Labour won't get more than 35% in 2015 when they're on 38% with two years to go.
That's reasonable enough. Suppose Labour are on 35%, and the Tories manage not to lose a single vote on 37%. UKIP and the Lib Dems share 20% between them after some fashion.
Labour probably have their noses in front on seats in a hung Parliament... This has long been my best guess for the next general election.
I see Eck has rediscovered his love of golf - and leapt out of the gorse to molest big Phil Mickelson as soon as he'd won the McOpen (and collected his fat appearance fee - the only reason he was there ). Only surprise was he wasn't twirling a saltire over his head at the same time.. Pity Salmond is back to hypocrisy writ large at Muirfield this weekend..
Phil seems pretty chillaxed about it.
'This week Lefty partnered First Minister Alex Salmond in the pro-am at Castle Stuart prior to the first round of the Scottish Open. And he was pretty impressed by Wee Eck’s game. Mickleson admitted: “What’s cool is that, as a politician, he’s an excellent golfer. “He knows how to swing, he’s got good clubhead speed and a good touch around the greens. “You can tell that he’s played a lot of golf over the years and I always have respect for that.” Mickelson revealed that the pair also talked politics ahead of next year’s independence referendum. The American, 43, said: “We had a great conversation throughout the day, He’s got an outgoing personality and he’s easy to be around. “We had a great chat about golf and about politics — and I loved hearing his thoughts.”.
God I love Lefty - such a polite chap and a good guy.
An utterly misleading message. The United Kingdom cannot merely "re-join" these measures. It must subject itself to the jurisdiction of the Commission and the Court of Justice in criminal matters for the first time. That was a step too far for even the last Labour government.
'Those PB Tories who believed Cameron on the EAW are looking pretty dim aren't they?'
Can't compete with PB lefties who believed 3 years of Red's posturing and opposition to cuts only for a complete u-turn on each and every cut, now that is dim.
Both the Reds and the Blues look dumb for ever believing their respective leaders about anything worthwhile.
The Reds still listen agogg at the Marxist contort face and his increasingly irrelevant spiel. The Blues listen in amazement at puce faced Cammo and know in their heart of hearts that he will never give the EU referendum they want.
Speccy - I've noticed the Crosby Effect on Twitter from Tory MPs - they're a lot more assertive than normal which is in stark contrast to Labour who are generally always having a pop.
"One of the striking things about politics at the moment is how the Tories are behaving like an opposition, campaigning against Labour with even more intensity than they managed in 2009. The Tories intend to use the Keogh report, out tomorrow, to — in the words of one Number 10 insider — give Labour ‘both barrels’ over the NHS. As one Tory minister puts it, ‘Labour’s argument about Mid-Staffs is that it is one isolated, bad case. Keogh disproves that.’
As part of this, the Tories are going after Andy Burnham. The Tory leadership is convinced that Ed Miliband will move Burnham in the reshuffle, there’s a reason why people tend not to shadow in opposition the job they did in government, and want to be able to claim the credit. This morning, a slew of loyalist Tory backbenchers took to Twitter to try and ramp up the pressure on the former Health Secretary.
Labour argue that these attacks aren’t proving very effective, and that they still have a huge lead on the question of which party do you trust with the NHS. But it’ll be interesting to see if the Tories’ attacks this week, which contrast with Cameron’s far more consensual approach to the publication of the Francis Report into Mid-Staffs, have any effect or not."
Police hurt in Belfast riots: Hundreds of additional police officers are being sent from Britain to Northern I... http://bit.ly/1451PzO
Extra police sent to Northern Ireland after night of rioting in Belfast
Hundreds of police officers are being sent to Northern Ireland after a night of rioting in Belfast left 32 officers injured across the city, police said. CNN @CNN
@tim - Well, if Labour want to get into a competition on who will be tougher on wasteful welfare payments, I'm sure the Tories will be delighted. This is a battle Labour can't win, for the very good reason that they have been saying the exact opposite for years, and still can't resist the most ridiculous shroud-waving.
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
The beauty of a cap - which has passed the more simple lefties by - is that the cap can be frozen or raised below inflation for the whole of the next parliament - saving more and more money in real terms - and will be popular.
"Benefit drag" - is a stealthy way of saving money - and the cap is the mechanism to achieve this without reducing specific benefits.
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
The beauty of a cap - which has passed the more simple lefties by - is that the cap can be frozen or raised below inflation for the whole of the next parliament - saving more and more money in real terms - and will be popular.
"Benefit drag" - is a stealthy way of saving money - and the cap is the mechanism to achieve this without reducing specific benefits.
A further way of saving money would come in to play if there was more of an incentive to work. The benfit cap is seen as removing one of the disincentives.
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
And they think it ends up with the claimant rather than the bulk going to a landlord I'd imagine.
And
Benefit bill: people are most likely to think that capping benefits at £26,000 per household will save most money from a list provided (33% pick this option)
In fact the projected savings have fallen from £270 million to £110 million already. And thats before the govt knows where people are going to be rehoused. Tory councils on the south coast don't seem to keen for some reason.
I heard it said on the radio this morning that the £26,000 cap is equivalent to a gross salary of £34,000 and, in an unrelated item, that a couple with a small child earning such a salary would not be able to afford to rent anywhere in Greater London and in large parts of the South East.
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
The beauty of a cap - which has passed the more simple lefties by - is that the cap can be frozen or raised below inflation for the whole of the next parliament - saving more and more money in real terms - and will be popular.
"Benefit drag" - is a stealthy way of saving money - and the cap is the mechanism to achieve this without reducing specific benefits.
A further way of saving money would come in to play if there was more of an incentive to work. The benfit cap is seen as removing one of the disincentives.
5 years of a frozen cap and further raising of the IT allowance will help.
Labour will oppose both naturally - for a month or so.
@tim - Don't ask me, ask your leader. In January he was opposed, in July he's in favour, in fact he now seems to be saying the only thing the coalition is doing wrong is that they're not capping welfare payments more severely.
Julian Huppert (LD-Cambridge) demonstrating again how the LibDems' commitment to civil liberties will always be trumped by their ideological commitment to European federalism.
Yep, much of 2015 change will come down to how the SLD disaffected split. However I can't believe Ed consistently having -30 to -40 ratings in Scotland won't have an effect on the enthusiasm of the Labour vote.
Got a link to the last proper MORI approval ratings poll in Scotland, they appear to have changed their website so you can't find them
It's Ed relative to Nick and Dave that will count. Clegg will be miles lower, as will Cameron.
Here you go. By the way, Ipsos MORI omit Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg from their questionnaire.
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) +14 Patrick Harvie (Grn) +11 Johann Lamont (Lab) +5 Alex Salmond (SNP) +2 Alistair Darling (Lab) -2 Willie Rennie (LD) -9 Ruth Davidson (Con) -10 David Cameron (Con) -38
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
And they think it ends up with the claimant rather than the bulk going to a landlord I'd imagine.
And
Benefit bill: people are most likely to think that capping benefits at £26,000 per household will save most money from a list provided (33% pick this option)
In fact the projected savings have fallen from £270 million to £110 million already. And thats before the govt knows where people are going to be rehoused. Tory councils on the south coast don't seem to keen for some reason.
I heard it said on the radio this morning that the £26,000 cap is equivalent to a gross salary of £34,000 and, in an unrelated item, that a couple with a small child earning such a salary would not be able to afford to rent anywhere in Greater London and in large parts of the South East.
Thats obvious nonsense because someone in those circumstances is entitled to tax credits, council tax support and housing benefit on top of their salary. How do you think people on average pay survive in London?
The state subsidises their rent and wages.
It was some sort of report (but cannot remember who) and it was the focus of a Today item this morning. Presumably the report was making the point that without additional help people could not afford to live in these areas (though I did not hear that as I was rushing around sorting breakfast). It is absurd that people on relatively low incomes are being taxed when it would be better for them to be taxed less and earn more. How we get from there to here is the question.......
@tim - Don't ask me, ask your leader. In January he was opposed, in July he's in favour, in fact he now seems to be saying the only thing the coalition is doing wrong is that they're not capping welfare payments more severely.
Of course welfare payments should be capped at a lower level. But the Tories are ideologically addicted to paying ever more to landlords and blocking social housebuilding. They've deliberately increased rents in the social sector too which makes it worse.
So Labour will be changing this ? Labour won't be signing up to GOs plan ?
guffaw, chortle, arf etc.
As Mick has pointed out downthread at least the LDs get policies changed.
But the Tories are ideologically addicted to paying ever more to landlords and blocking social housebuilding.
Well, I'm sure you'd like that to be true. The reality is that one of IDS's first changes was to reduce the housing benefit norm from the 50% of local rents percentile point to 30%, to howls of anguish from Labour and the other usual suspects. Quite why Labour thought it a good idea for the state to outbid 50% of private sector renters is a mystery I'll leave you to answer.
Yep, much of 2015 change will come down to how the SLD disaffected split. However I can't believe Ed consistently having -30 to -40 ratings in Scotland won't have an effect on the enthusiasm of the Labour vote.
Got a link to the last proper MORI approval ratings poll in Scotland, they appear to have changed their website so you can't find them
It's Ed relative to Nick and Dave that will count. Clegg will be miles lower, as will Cameron.
Here you go. By the way, Ipsos MORI omit Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg from their questionnaire.
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) +14 Patrick Harvie (Grn) +11 Johann Lamont (Lab) +5 Alex Salmond (SNP) +2 Alistair Darling (Lab) -2 Willie Rennie (LD) -9 Ruth Davidson (Con) -10 David Cameron (Con) -38
Somehow I don't think tim's valiant battle to portray the Tories as the party of excessive welfare is quite going to catch the popular imagination, but it's fun to watch.
This is the best result for the Tories in an ICM poll since they led by 3 points in March 2012, just before the chancellor, George Osborne, mishandled the budget, presaging a series of other errors across the government machine.
The fall in the Ukip share of the vote may reflect both the recent comparative decline in publicity for the party's leader, Nigel Farage, as well as Downing Street's persistent efforts to neutralise Ukip's appeal by countering with a series of strong messages on immigration, welfare and a referendum on UK membership of the European Union.
It may also suggest that Ukip support is in part a protest vote exercised in relatively unimportant local elections and that this support dissipates once the protest has been registered.
Ukip is likely to argue that the fall-off in support has not been reflected in most other polls. At the weekend four online polls showed Ukip support in the high teens, but a new Populus poll showed Ukip on 10%.
Farage's party will also be banking on a big resurgence of interest during the European parliament elections next June, when it will hope to come first in terms of national share of the vote.
The ICM poll findings do not appear to reflect any change in the underlying support for Labour since the party's standing of 36% remains unchanged on last month – although party supporters may hope to dismiss it as an outlier.
The ICM poll also contains a clear warning for Osborne since it shows two thirds (65%) do not believe his promise, made last week, that the deficit can be cut after the election without raising taxes.
There is a majority scepticism on this issue across the political spectrum, with 57% of people who voted Conservative in 2010 agreeing (2010 Lab: 70%, 2010 Lib Dem: 75%).
...But overall, the Conservatives will be delighted with Monday's ICM findings, putting the party in an optimistic mood ahead of a reshuffle of the ministerial ranks outside cabinet later this week. Conservatives are convinced that as growth picks up over the next 12 months, the polls will swing decisively to them...
Liberal Democrats will be concerned at the absence of any sign in the ICM poll that its overall vote is picking up, despite the decline in Ukip support. The findings appear to confirm the Lib Dems are no longer seen as the protest party, making it harder to win a new constituency.
Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem Treasury chief secretary, will on Tuesday publish the result of a Cabinet Office-led review into a replacement for the Trident nuclear deterrent. The ICM poll shows the public is entirely split on the issue. Three in 10 (31%) think Trident should be replaced (rising to 45% of those who voted Tory in 2010), while an identical number (31%) think it should be slimmed down (rising to 37% among 2010 Lib Dem voters) and 30% think we should no longer have any deterrent (39% among Labour 2010 voters).
In his speech, Alexander is to back a limited replacement.
The poll also shows all three party leaders have judged the public mood correctly by rejecting the 10% increase in MPs' pay from 2015 proposed by the parliamentary watchdog. The proposed rise would take MPs' pay to £74,000 in 2015.
The public believe MPs should be paid a shade over £50,000 (£51,620 on average). Men are happier to pay more, at £54,000 while women think MPs should be paid £49,000, and there is a clear correlation between social grade and pay. Those in the most affluent group, AB, suggest MPs should get £58,000, C1s suggest £55,000, C2s £46,000 and DEs £45,000. Lib Dem voters are the most generous (£61,000), as are people living in the south (£54,000).
• ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 12-14 July 2013.
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
And they think it ends up with the claimant rather than the bulk going to a landlord I'd imagine.
And
Benefit bill: people are most likely to think that capping benefits at £26,000 per household will save most money from a list provided (33% pick this option)
In fact the projected savings have fallen from £270 million to £110 million already. And thats before the govt knows where people are going to be rehoused. Tory councils on the south coast don't seem to keen for some reason.
I heard it said on the radio this morning that the £26,000 cap is equivalent to a gross salary of £34,000 and, in an unrelated item, that a couple with a small child earning such a salary would not be able to afford to rent anywhere in Greater London and in large parts of the South East.
Thats obvious nonsense because someone in those circumstances is entitled to tax credits, council tax support and housing benefit on top of their salary. How do you think people on average pay survive in London?
The state subsidises their rent and wages.
It was some sort of report (but cannot remember who) and it was the focus of a Today item this morning. Presumably the report was making the point that without additional help people could not afford to live in these areas (though I did not hear that as I was rushing around sorting breakfast). It is absurd that people on relatively low incomes are being taxed when it would be better for them to be taxed less and earn more. How we get from there to here is the question.......
We get there by moving housing benefit into housebuilding.
And a living wage.
But the PB Tories won't have that argument because they are benefit junkies.
I quite agree that we need more good quality homes. A pity Labour did so little about this when they had the chance. Let's see what happens now.
But the Tories are ideologically addicted to paying ever more to landlords and blocking social housebuilding.
Well, I'm sure you'd like that to be true. The reality is that one of IDS's first changes was to reduce the housing benefit norm from the 50% of local rents percentile point to 30%, to howls of anguish from Labour and the other usual suspects. Quite why Labour thought it a good idea for the state to outbid 50% of private sector renters is a mystery I'll leave you to answer.
Richard this is all getting so messy for Labourites, but help is on the way. I am developing a search engine to help Lefties find what policies they're currently espousing. The web site called "Ask Osborne" will reveal all of labour's current commitments. Labourites no longer need to think for themselves ( wasn't much demand for that functionality anyhow ) just type in a policy and Osborne will take you straight to his latest press release. save hours of pointless opposition with the power of technology. Simples.
Richard this is all getting so messy for Labourites, but help is on the way. I am developing as search engine to help Lefties find what policies they're currently espousing. The web site called "Ask Osborne" will reveal all of labour's current commitments. Labourites no longer need to think for themselves ( wasn't much demand for that functionality anyhow ) just type in a policy and Osborne will take you straight to his latest press release. save hours of pointless opposition with the power of technology. Simples.
Good plan, but you need to build in a time delay. Get it right, and your website will be able not only to tell us what Labour's policy is now (by looking at what they were opposing six months ago), but also what it will be in six months' time (by looking at what IDS and Osborne are being harangued for today).
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
And they think it ends up with the claimant rather than the bulk going to a landlord I'd imagine.
And
Benefit bill: people are most likely to think that capping benefits at £26,000 per household will save most money from a list provided (33% pick this option)
In fact the projected savings have fallen from £270 million to £110 million already. And thats before the govt knows where people are going to be rehoused. Tory councils on the south coast don't seem to keen for some reason.
I heard it said on the radio this morning that the £26,000 cap is equivalent to a gross salary of £34,000 and, in an unrelated item, that a couple with a small child earning such a salary would not be able to afford to rent anywhere in Greater London and in large parts of the South East.
Thats obvious nonsense because someone in those circumstances is entitled to tax credits, council tax support and housing benefit on top of their salary. How do you think people on average pay survive in London?
The state subsidises their rent and wages.
It was some sort of report (but cannot remember who) and it was the focus of a Today item this morning. Presumably the report was making the point that without additional help people could not afford to live in these areas (though I did not hear that as I was rushing around sorting breakfast). It is absurd that people on relatively low incomes are being taxed when it would be better for them to be taxed less and earn more. How we get from there to here is the question.......
We get there by moving housing benefit into housebuilding.
And a living wage.
But the PB Tories won't have that argument because they are benefit junkies.
Building more houses doesn't reduce housing benefit unless the increase in supply is above the ever increasing demand from immigration.
I may be misremembering - but wasn't the last poll that seemed like an outlier then backed up the next month? I can't recall who it was - MORI? It was a few months back.
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell How can we be taken seriously when we say we want to transfer power back from Brussels if this afternoon we are transfering 30 to Brussels?
But this must trigger the referendum lock, or Dave's words aren't worth anything.
Not really Nick, we just had a bumper pack of online polls and ICM is the first phone poll in a while.
As was noted by Populus in Mike's article. "The other main difference between our online and phone-derived voting intention figures is that we do not employ any “spiral of silence” adjustment online. In the past adjusting for the “spiral of silence” – the tendency of some voters not to want to reveal a party preference they perceive to be unpopular or unfashionable – in the presence of an interviewer helped to eliminate polling error. In common with other online pollsters we believe such an adjustment is unnecessary when the matter of who they intend to vote for is between the respondent and their computer screen or mobile device.”
@MarkSenior also made a very valid point earlier in the thread about online polling. "Not prompting for UKIP does not seem to have hit the number of respondents saying they would vote UKIP in this poll . Populus did some drastic weighting adjustments reducing the number saying they would vote UKIP from 256 to 143 . This was because their sample contained 169 UKIP identifiers compared to the 20 it should have contained . Yougov always shows similar oversampling of UKIP IDers in it's online samples . Whether this is caused by UKIP supporters stacking online polling panels or being keener to respond to polls when asked or some other reason I do not know but it is surely worth some investigation of this phenomenon . ."
Twitter ChristinaD @fitalass 13 Jul @MSmithsonPB Mike, some of the online pollsters have UKIP polling higher. Was it a similar case when we had Cleggism/Libdem bounce pre GE?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 13 Jul @fitalass Yes. Most of the online pollsters at GE2010 had bigger Clegg bounces after the 1st debate ICM's Wisdom Index had no bounce at all
I caught Andy Burnham's performance on Sky News yesterday, and tonight on the ITN news. This politician is really not helping himself or the Official Opposition with his behaviour. His total focus appears to be the angry rebuttal of any criticism of himself and the last Labour Government rather than the very serious issues raised and how they effected so many individuals. This is very similar to how Ed Balls behaves when it comes to any criticism of him or the last Government's economic policies or legacy.
Comments
Eck : Muirfield run by men only = bad.
http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/politics/salmond-to-miss-open-over-muirfield-men-only-rule-1-2980595
"FIRST Minister Alex Salmond last night revealed that he will not attend the Open Championship at Muirfield this summer as he underlined his opposition to male-only golf clubs."
Eck : Space religion run by men only = good.
http://www.thetablet.co.uk/latest-news/5217
"Mr Salmond was known to be close to Cardinal Keith O'Brien, whose departure from office for inappropriate conduct has shaken the Church in Scotland.
Mr Salmond, leader of the Scottish National Party, said the Church had been "at the heart of the independence movement in Scotland" in the past, and that "without the Catholic Church there would be no Scotland.""
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins
Richard Bacon clutches his head in his hand as Margaret Hodge explores line of succession of the Duchy of Cornwall once more
'Those PB Tories who believed Cameron on the EAW are looking pretty dim aren't they?'
Can't compete with PB lefties who believed 3 years of Red's posturing and opposition to cuts only for a complete u-turn on each and every cut, now that is dim.
'This week Lefty partnered First Minister Alex Salmond in the pro-am at Castle Stuart prior to the first round of the Scottish Open.
And he was pretty impressed by Wee Eck’s game.
Mickleson admitted: “What’s cool is that, as a politician, he’s an excellent golfer.
“He knows how to swing, he’s got good clubhead speed and a good touch around the greens.
“You can tell that he’s played a lot of golf over the years and I always have respect for that.”
Mickelson revealed that the pair also talked politics ahead of next year’s independence referendum.
The American, 43, said: “We had a great conversation throughout the day, He’s got an outgoing personality and he’s easy to be around.
“We had a great chat about golf and about politics — and I loved hearing his thoughts.”.
Labour probably have their noses in front on seats in a hung Parliament... This has long been my best guess for the next general election.
I once walked past the course and the fences keeping intruders out are pretty forbidding.
God I love Lefty - such a polite chap and a good guy.
"Tory ministers are told to not mention the level of the benefit cap (£26k) when selling the policy. Because voters think it is too generous."
The Reds still listen agogg at the Marxist contort face and his increasingly irrelevant spiel.
The Blues listen in amazement at puce faced Cammo and know in their heart of hearts that he will never give the EU referendum they want.
"One of the striking things about politics at the moment is how the Tories are behaving like an opposition, campaigning against Labour with even more intensity than they managed in 2009. The Tories intend to use the Keogh report, out tomorrow, to — in the words of one Number 10 insider — give Labour ‘both barrels’ over the NHS. As one Tory minister puts it, ‘Labour’s argument about Mid-Staffs is that it is one isolated, bad case. Keogh disproves that.’
As part of this, the Tories are going after Andy Burnham. The Tory leadership is convinced that Ed Miliband will move Burnham in the reshuffle, there’s a reason why people tend not to shadow in opposition the job they did in government, and want to be able to claim the credit. This morning, a slew of loyalist Tory backbenchers took to Twitter to try and ramp up the pressure on the former Health Secretary.
Labour argue that these attacks aren’t proving very effective, and that they still have a huge lead on the question of which party do you trust with the NHS. But it’ll be interesting to see if the Tories’ attacks this week, which contrast with Cameron’s far more consensual approach to the publication of the Francis Report into Mid-Staffs, have any effect or not."
"Benefit drag" - is a stealthy way of saving money - and the cap is the mechanism to achieve this without reducing specific benefits.
Labour will oppose both naturally - for a month or so.
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) +14
Patrick Harvie (Grn) +11
Johann Lamont (Lab) +5
Alex Salmond (SNP) +2
Alistair Darling (Lab) -2
Willie Rennie (LD) -9
Ruth Davidson (Con) -10
David Cameron (Con) -38
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3172/Support-for-Scotland-remaining-part-of-the-UK-increases.aspx
guffaw, chortle, arf etc.
As Mick has pointed out downthread at least the LDs get policies changed.
What is the point of Labour ?
Wow. New Guardian/ICM is... CON 36 (+7) LAB 36 (nc) LD 13 (+1) UKIP 7 (-5) guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/…
The fall in the Ukip share of the vote may reflect both the recent comparative decline in publicity for the party's leader, Nigel Farage, as well as Downing Street's persistent efforts to neutralise Ukip's appeal by countering with a series of strong messages on immigration, welfare and a referendum on UK membership of the European Union.
It may also suggest that Ukip support is in part a protest vote exercised in relatively unimportant local elections and that this support dissipates once the protest has been registered.
Ukip is likely to argue that the fall-off in support has not been reflected in most other polls. At the weekend four online polls showed Ukip support in the high teens, but a new Populus poll showed Ukip on 10%.
Farage's party will also be banking on a big resurgence of interest during the European parliament elections next June, when it will hope to come first in terms of national share of the vote.
The ICM poll findings do not appear to reflect any change in the underlying support for Labour since the party's standing of 36% remains unchanged on last month – although party supporters may hope to dismiss it as an outlier.
At last a poll I quite like with liberal democrats double UKIP (nearly).
There is a majority scepticism on this issue across the political spectrum, with 57% of people who voted Conservative in 2010 agreeing (2010 Lab: 70%, 2010 Lib Dem: 75%).
...But overall, the Conservatives will be delighted with Monday's ICM findings, putting the party in an optimistic mood ahead of a reshuffle of the ministerial ranks outside cabinet later this week. Conservatives are convinced that as growth picks up over the next 12 months, the polls will swing decisively to them...
Liberal Democrats will be concerned at the absence of any sign in the ICM poll that its overall vote is picking up, despite the decline in Ukip support. The findings appear to confirm the Lib Dems are no longer seen as the protest party, making it harder to win a new constituency.
Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem Treasury chief secretary, will on Tuesday publish the result of a Cabinet Office-led review into a replacement for the Trident nuclear deterrent. The ICM poll shows the public is entirely split on the issue. Three in 10 (31%) think Trident should be replaced (rising to 45% of those who voted Tory in 2010), while an identical number (31%) think it should be slimmed down (rising to 37% among 2010 Lib Dem voters) and 30% think we should no longer have any deterrent (39% among Labour 2010 voters).
In his speech, Alexander is to back a limited replacement.
The poll also shows all three party leaders have judged the public mood correctly by rejecting the 10% increase in MPs' pay from 2015 proposed by the parliamentary watchdog. The proposed rise would take MPs' pay to £74,000 in 2015.
The public believe MPs should be paid a shade over £50,000 (£51,620 on average). Men are happier to pay more, at £54,000 while women think MPs should be paid £49,000, and there is a clear correlation between social grade and pay. Those in the most affluent group, AB, suggest MPs should get £58,000, C1s suggest £55,000, C2s £46,000 and DEs £45,000. Lib Dem voters are the most generous (£61,000), as are people living in the south (£54,000).
• ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 12-14 July 2013.
Net satisfaction
Alex Salmond +34
Ed Milliband -14
David Cameron -31
Nick Clegg -36
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+
25-29 August 2011
Source: Ipsos MORI
http://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/snpconference-2011-ipsos-mori-scotland-briefing-pack
Labour still above their 35% target .
Obviously.
Tony McNulty @Tony_McNulty
Most worrying thing about Tory 36% in ICM poll - it is what they got in 2010!!
As was noted by Populus in Mike's article. "The other main difference between our online and phone-derived voting intention figures is that we do not employ any “spiral of silence” adjustment online. In the past adjusting for the “spiral of silence” – the tendency of some voters not to want to reveal a party preference they perceive to be unpopular or unfashionable – in the presence of an interviewer helped to eliminate polling error. In common with other online pollsters we believe such an adjustment is unnecessary when the matter of who they intend to vote for is between the respondent and their computer screen or mobile device.”
@MarkSenior also made a very valid point earlier in the thread about online polling.
"Not prompting for UKIP does not seem to have hit the number of respondents saying they would vote UKIP in this poll . Populus did some drastic weighting adjustments reducing the number saying they would vote UKIP from 256 to 143 . This was because their sample contained 169 UKIP identifiers compared to the 20 it should have contained .
Yougov always shows similar oversampling of UKIP IDers in it's online samples . Whether this is caused by UKIP supporters stacking online polling panels or being keener to respond to polls when asked or some other reason I do not know but it is surely worth some investigation of this phenomenon . ."
Twitter
ChristinaD @fitalass 13 Jul
@MSmithsonPB Mike, some of the online pollsters have UKIP polling higher. Was it a similar case when we had Cleggism/Libdem bounce pre GE?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 13 Jul
@fitalass Yes. Most of the online pollsters at GE2010 had bigger Clegg bounces after the 1st debate ICM's Wisdom Index had no bounce at all
Telegraph - Andy Burnham: The Coalition failed to act on my concerns about the NHS