politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership election results WILL be broken down by
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership election results WILL be broken down by how the different categories have voted
The tweet above represents a big change of mind by Labour on how it will announce the results on September 12th. Initially the plan had not been to give separate figures for the three different types of voter. Now these will be provided.
0
Comments
I see Mr Corbyn is now Leader Corbyn. Not too far from Dear Leader Corbyn (or Comrade Corbyn for that matter)
The result might be something like this (this is an illustration, not a prediction):
FIRST ROUND
Corbyn: members 80,000 + affiliated 50,000 + registered 50,000 = total 180,000
Burnham: members 50,000 + affiliated 20,000 + registered 15,000 = total 85,000
Cooper: members 45,000 + affiliated 10,000 + registered 25,000 = total 80,000
Kendall: members 15,000 + affiliated 10,000 + registered 10,000 = total 35,000
TOTAL: members 190,000 + affiliated 90,000 + registered 100,000 = total 380,000
(quota needed for election = 380,000 / 2 = 190,000)
SECOND ROUND
Corbyn: members 80,000 + affiliated 50,000 + registered 50,000 = total 180,000
Burnham: members 55,000 + affiliated 25,000 + registered 15,000 = total 95,000
Cooper: members 55,000 + affiliated 15,000 + registered 30,000 = total 100,000
TOTAL: members 190,000 + affiliated 90,000 + registered 100,000 = total 375,000
(quota needed for election = 375,000 / 2 = 187,500)
THIRD ROUND
Corbyn: members 95,000 + affiliated 60,000 + registered 55,000 = total 210,000
Cooper: members 80,000 + affiliated 25,000 + registered 35,000 = total 140,000
TOTAL: members 190,000 + affiliated 90,000 + registered 100,000 = total 350,000
(quota needed for election = 350,000 / 2 = 175,000)
-------
If "are they going to release preferences?" means "are they going to publish the full list of preferences on each ballot paper?", then the answer is no.
eg Full members only would have led to Corbyn v Burnham in the final round whereas the total electorate actually gives Corbyn v Cooper.
If the above happens it will be impossible to tell who would have won if the election had been full members only - because we would never see how Cooper's vote would have been redistributed.
So the whole thing could still end in total farce - with nobody knowing who would have won if it had been full members only.
The Jezzbollah Faithful - 524,217 - Elected Dear Leader.
The Mini-Cooper Run Around - 62,981 - Failed MOT.
Burnham All-At-Sea - 54,016 - Washed Up Wreck
Liz Kendall Mint Cake - 23,904 - Sweet F*ck All
Jobseeker's Allowance is an amalgam of what had previously been two separate benefits for the unemployed - Unemployment Benefit and Income Support (prior to that Supplementary Benefit). The separate benefits were divided along the lines of Contributory Benefits and Means Tested and were operated by two separate government agencies - the Employment Service (Jobcentres) and the Benefits Agency.
Things like sanctions have been around for decades and compulsory training schemes have existed in one guise or another for decades as well.
Contributory benefit used to last one year instead of six months.
The basic age for entitlement was 16 until 1988 when it became 18. There were hardship exceptions for certain 16-17 year olds, but the general feeling was that youngsters should stay in training, education or employment, rather than dole. That age, just like school leaving, has crept upwards over the decades.
The system was still heavily, paper based in the 1980s and riddled with fraud.
JSA, and it's predecessor on the means test, Supplementary Benefit, incorporated payments for the family as well as the claimant and partner. Brown added division to this system through the invention of tax credits.
I am under the perception that Supplementary Benefit (and later Income Support) had very little in the way of obligations and sanctions, which have steadily got increasingly tougher since the 90s. Is that accurate?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34070202
Publishing the figures by group still doesn't tell us when people joined.
From my very brief experience in the 80s the main problem was that the bureaucracy was so slow that I found work before my claim was processed. Some things don't change.
Incidentally, I can't believe there's still two weeks to go - this feels like the longest leadership election ever.
Meanwhile, you can *still* back him at 1.35 on Betfair.
The same is of course also true for the other candidates if Cobyn doesn't win. If Burnham or Cooper somehow pull it off, they can be attacked for only being the first choice of about a quarter of Labour's membership.
But the critical electoral college section here is the one that doesn't exist: the MPs. It's they who would be 80%+ against Corbyn and it's they who have most opportunity in the future to bring him down.
https://twitter.com/iainmski/status/636783090564792320?s=09
What a surprise.
The BBC must be quite concerned. They have been hyping their own organisation a great deal over the last few months.
Is it the BBC charter, or the Dame Janet Smith inquiry?
Cuts both ways. If Corbyn gets a plurality of votes from every section, it legitimises him and makes the prospect of a quick coup [always unlikely with Labour] even less probable.
None of them stop to consider that a poll tax licence fee might not be justifiable any more in the digital age, or that the BBC is no longer serving or representing the population universally enough to compensate for that.
None of them stop to consider that a poll tax licence fee might not be justifiable any more in the digital age, or that the BBC is no longer serving or representing the population universally enough to compensate for that.
"She wants to see a separate board for each home nation - Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - under a UK-wide board."
*cough*
Has she ever heard of England?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/motorsport/34060142
Got to say, I'm a bit dubious about this. Potential for trapping people, vision restriction and bits of sharp glass/plastic (or whatever it's made of) stabbing the driver if there's a massive impact which strikes the canopy are all concerns.
Fwiw my spreadsheet guess had corbyn slightly ahead in member section but not by much.
The electoral rules for challenging a sitting Labour leader make it very difficult indeed and they have never, as a body, shown the necessary guts to act on their concerns.
As far as the media are concerned, there will be far more fun to be had at Corbyn's expense on the basis of what he has said/done/supported in the past rather than the quirks of the electoral maths of his elevation to the leadership,
There is more than enough in the Corbyn back catalogue to do the undermining without worrying about the current numbers.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/636797938325450752
If ever anyone needs a reason why a powerful non Tory opposition is essential this is their answer.
That does seem odd. Why can't BBC Scotland compete? I think there's probably a bit more to it than 'anti-Celtic bias'. Maybe it's got a dud management structure? If it's worse than that of the Beeb as a whole, however, then it must be quite something.
When the situation was reversed in 1994-7, the hard left generally whinged but stuck with the Blairite project, as it was going to win. Blair also tried to mollify them - why else was the terminally stupid and hopeless Prescott made DPM and given his massive ministry?
This is different. Despite what Nick says, I cannot see the Corbynites erecting a tent large enough to include the Blairites, without the latter undergoing a road to Damascus conversion even larger than Nickr's. Just look at the poison the left have been throwing at Kendall.
I see no reason to believe that Cornbyn will have a Blair-like 'magic touch' that will lead to a win in 2020. That is what he needs to pull the party together, and even that might not be enough.
Perhaps the focus on running BBC Alba (producing programmes in a language spoken by under 60.000 people (as of the 2011 census)) is taking too many resources from other areas.
Talking out of your sporran, as usual.
If you can't be nice, I'll be forced to post a prolonged ramble about the forthcoming circuit of Monza. And you wouldn't want that now, would you?
For reasons of public safety, someone else would have to drive it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_television_programmes_produced_by_BBC_Scotland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7YuAKWcAwY
@malcolmg, she is proposing a solution without identifying the problem. Therefore she will be ignored, or thought just to be doing some separatist stirring. If she held an enquiry, found out what the problem was, and then publicised the report with a proposed solution, it would almost certainly be a lot more effective. The BBC hates well-informed criticism - look at their headless chicken reaction to the Hutton report. But this I suspect they will just brush off, which is a bit of a shame given it's clearly a real issue.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/26/conservatives-offer-day-of-special-access-to-ministers-for-2500
That is just playing with numbers to try to make the station sound as if it is viable.
There are under 60,000 Gaelic speakers - the majority of whom live in the Outer Hebrides.
Might be Monza's last year. Ecclestone's talking about it not being on the 2016 calendar.
As I said exactly mirrors Westminster.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/155514-parliament-watchdogs-probe-snp-cash-for-access-claims/
One hopes you read the dates of when those programmes were made, most are from around the time of your fake age.
"Come on chaps, this is meant to be a happy website.
If you can't be nice, I'll be forced to post a prolonged ramble about the forthcoming circuit of Monza. And you wouldn't want that now, would you?"
Saw Eddie Jordan yesterday sunning himself with the beautiful people of Paloma Beach on Cap ferrat yesterday. I was wondering where he was meandering off to next.
..and now I must away to do some serious sunbathing...
As a matter of interest how many BBC programmes are made in the East Midlands? We want local shows for local people...