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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn’s path to Number 10

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn’s path to Number 10

There are those, inside and outside of the Labour party, who think by electing Jeremy Corbyn as leader, Labour are committing the greatest strategic blunder since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star. By electing Corbyn Labour can say goodbye to taking power in 2020, but is that assumption correct?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    I think oppositions do lose elections. Remember Ed Miliband had lots of popular one off policies like rent caps and price controls, but it alll still added up to a lack of economic credibility. Corbyn will be worse, and he also wants to snub the Queen, give away British territory, let in swarms of migrants, be friendly with Hamas and Hezbollah and get rid of our nuclear defenc, all while ruling over a party in the midst of civil war. The public will not let him near power.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Interesting piece, whilst it's good to play devil's advocate the chances of Corbyn winning a GE are very low. It seems the Labour Party are determined he won't even be leader for long.

    I predicted a month or so back on here that the Labour Party would split, it seems inevitable now. Corbyn's mob will, by default, claim to be "real" labour, the "new" lot will splinter off.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    That's odd - just had two posts disappear.....

    After a particularly fraught EU referendum, the Tories could elect someone who is the antithesis of David Cameron’s One Nation Conservatism. All those voters in the marginals that backed the Tories, and the gains the Tories made from the Lib Dems might be at risk. Even if the referendum doesn’t damage the Tory party, I’m not sure there is anyone in the Tory party who can appeal to these type of voters in the way David Cameron can. As the 2001 Tory leadership election showed, the Tories can make horrifically bad leadership decisions too.

    Quite. One should never underestimate the Tories capacity to scr@w things up.....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I see PB has entered silly season ....

    One must praise TSE for putting together such an entertainingly enjoyable narrative on this charming late summer early morning.

    However as the gentleman in white coats glide effortlessly toward Chez TSE armed with a screen grab as incontrovertible proof on insanity, let us collectively remember him in his pomp :

    Recall those salad days as he danced election nights away in those red shoes and sequin encrusted lycra shorts quoting tracts of ancient history as Con GAIN flashed over our screens and he poured forth on the finer details of upcoming AV threads mixed in with oblique references to pop hits of the 1970's and 80's.

    We shall remember him ....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    More than 40 leading economists, including a former adviser to the Bank of England, have made public their support for Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, dismissing claims that they are extreme, in a major boost to the leftwinger’s campaign to be leader.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-economists-backing-anti-austerity-policies-corbynomics

    Curiously, who the economist is is only mentioned further down - yes its Danny '5 Million Unemployed' Blanchflower.......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited August 2015
    FPT:

    Where to start?

    Point of pedantry - Guernsey and Jersey are not 'part of the UK' - never have been.

    Both were DEMILITARISED and ORDERED not to resist. Not a lot of point in fighting on an island that can be shelled from Occupied France.

    In an island of 24 sq miles where exactly do you retreat to after a counter attack? A bit different if you've got 8,650,000 square miles to play with.

    'Liberation Day' is celebrated on the 9th of May - two days after VE day - when the British finally got round to Liberating the Channel Islands - after Operation Overlord the Channel Islands and their German garrisons were cut off from Europe and supplies and left to starve.
    tyson said:


    The UK's only real experience of Nazi occupation was Jersey and Guernsey and the less said the better. The Guerns celebrate liberation day (or a better fit collaboration day)- I'm sure there are plenty of blonde headed Guerns still roaming the Island- a legacy of the war. Jersey was quite helpful in deporting its small population of Jews too. That is how resistant our kindred folk were to the Nazis.


    tyson said:

    Perhaps the 30 million or so of Soviets who were killed in WW2 might have had some small effect on the outcome of the war.

    Have you read Stalingrad? The bravery of the Russians in the second world war was astonishing. No country in the history of the world has paid such a price for winning a war. And the Russians did win the war- not the British pilots, or the Americans (who played a bit part), but the tens of millions of Russians that perished.
    This was the reason that we ceded the East European countries to them.





    Moses_ said:

    notme said:

    Moses_ said:

    Let's be honest.
    The Germans are good at football and making cars. They are totally crap at world wars.

    I dont know, it took most of the world to beat them last time. Was there any single nation alone other than the US, comforted by a blanket of oceans either side, that could have withstood their might?

    We were touch and go, and Germany was fighting a nasty war on its other front.
    To a point the Uk and the few brave pilots of fighter command withstood the aerial onslaught and the British Merchant Navy U boat attacks for quite a while. I agree though without the industrial might of the U.S. It may have been considerably different.
    There's an old saying which, whilst a massive broad brush, seems as reasonable summation as you can have of the respective countries roles:

    "The Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood, and the British provided the time."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Let's just say Corbyn became Prime Minister, at the head of a bizarre rag-tag Coalition. It would be hard to see it lasting a month. His Govt. would be faced with a massive flight of capital already having happened. The prospects for tax receipts would be dire without plundering the comfortably off and those getting by. Borrowing would become prohibitively expensive. The state would end up shrinking to an extent right wing small-staters could only dream about.

    The Labour brand would irretrievably tarnished, just about the time the first doctors and nurses aren't getting paid....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Please pass on your home address to the nice fellows presently attending to TSE as it's clear your charitable instincts extend to accompanying him to LaLa-Land Central.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sounds like he's going to be encouraging, indeed leading, direct action against any Government policy he disagrees with. When was the last leader of the Oppostion to get themselves arrested?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-strategic-state

    "Our opposition cannot be limited to the parliamentary chambers and TV studios of Westminster. Labour is best when it is a movement, and that movement has swelled to an enthusiastic 600,000 who will decide this leadership election. Once that is over, we face a bigger task: to force this government to abandon its free-market dogma and become the strategic state our society needs. That challenge begins on 12 September."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    alex. said:

    Once that is over, we face a bigger task: to force this government to abandon its free-market dogma and become the strategic state our society needs. That challenge begins on 12 September."

    Aren't those decisions typically taken at the ballot box in general elections? like the one a few months ago?\
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The thoughts of Comrade Corbyn:

    this government is not just replaying 2010, but taking us back to 1979......If you want to revive manufacturing and rebalance the economy then you need a strategic state leading the way......

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-strategic-state
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    RobD said:

    alex. said:

    Once that is over, we face a bigger task: to force this government to abandon its free-market dogma and become the strategic state our society needs. That challenge begins on 12 September."

    Aren't those decisions typically taken at the ballot box in general elections? like the one a few months ago?\
    I think this guy actually thinks he can engineer a revolution.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    JackW said:

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Please pass on your home address to the nice fellows presently attending to TSE as it's clear your charitable instincts extend to accompanying him to LaLa-Land Central.
    Do they sell your excellent pies in LaLa-Land Central?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Please pass on your home address to the nice fellows presently attending to TSE as it's clear your charitable instincts extend to accompanying him to LaLa-Land Central.
    Do they sell your excellent pies in LaLa-Land Central?
    Indeed so.

    I feel it my fervent duty to extend an element of gastronomic heaven to those whose mind has been addled by a combination of excessive focus on PB and the all compassing allure of Kay Burley at Sky News.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    I would give a whole English pound (honorary Cardi) to be a fly on the wall when MalcolmG reads this:
    We saw in the Scottish Independence referendum, it is possible to garner (and hold on to) the support of 45% of voters, even if your economic policies are incoherent, lacking in any economic or fiscal reality, so long as you can sell a vision that your plans are better than the status quo. 45% might not win a referendum, but under FPTP it can lead to a landslide in a general election. One of the things the SNP have managed to do brilliantly is get people who haven’t voted in the past to come out and vote for them, something Labour haven’t been able to replicate, Corbyn might be the man to do that with a different, bold vision.
    Although I would of course want to be out of range of a rolled-up newspaper!

    More seriously, I'm not sure that transfers very well to the UK as a whole. Yes, the SNP turned out 45% to vote yes. But of those 45%, what proportion were voting on economic arguments? Probably not that many. I would guess a very large proportion voted on a number of more or less 'gut' issues: hatred of the English, a belief that Scotland is being treated as a second-class country when it is just as good as (better?) than England, a genuine desire for independence, dislike of Cameron, Osborne and Miliband, etc.

    The 55% voting no, on the other hand, will likely have been swayed by the economic arguments. And I suspect, in the absence of emotional one-off pleas for national self-determination, that is what most people will be voting on in a general election. Of course, whoever is PM may struggle on economic credibility if there is another recession. But it is very hard to see how they could be less credible than a man who believes (1) printing money is the best way to pay all the government's bills and (2) the confiscation of private property without compensation is a good thing; which is certainly how Corbyn will be portrayed. One offers comparisons with Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe, the second with Venezuela and Zimbabwe. It would be like shooting fish in a barrel.

    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Please pass on your home address to the nice fellows presently attending to TSE as it's clear your charitable instincts extend to accompanying him to LaLa-Land Central.
    Do they sell your excellent pies in LaLa-Land Central?
    Indeed so.

    I feel it my fervent duty to extend an element of gastronomic heaven to those whose mind has been addled by a combination of excessive focus on PB and the all compassing allure of Kay Burley at Sky News.

    The inhabitants of LaLa-Land Central thank you.

    But I generally don't watch Sky News. Can I blame it on codeine instead?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    Er....the public put the boot up the arse of Ed Miliband as soon as they got the option.

    And the London electorate could take a risk/have a laugh electing Boris - he wasn't going to trash the economy or push up taxes or destroy property prices or end up killing the NHS....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Please pass on your home address to the nice fellows presently attending to TSE as it's clear your charitable instincts extend to accompanying him to LaLa-Land Central.
    Do they sell your excellent pies in LaLa-Land Central?
    Indeed so.

    I feel it my fervent duty to extend an element of gastronomic heaven to those whose mind has been addled by a combination of excessive focus on PB and the all compassing allure of Kay Burley at Sky News.

    The inhabitants of LaLa-Land Central thank you.

    But I generally don't watch Sky News. Can I blame it on codeine instead?
    I fear your dependence on codeine is playing tricks with your memory as your PB file clearly shows photographic evidence of your Kay Burley shrine.

    @JosiasJessop - Never Wrong For Long.



  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Good Telegraph cartoon on the cowardly French train crew who locked themselves in their office brave American passengers:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/635330657829261312/photo/1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Not bad....out by a factor of seven:

    In its oil and gas bulletin published in May 2014, the Scottish Government estimated that oil revenues would be between £15.8bn and £38.7bn between 2014/15 and 2018/19.

    It latest bulletin, published in June this year, said revenues could be as low as £2.4bn for 2016/17 to 2019/20, with it highest estimate at £10.8bn, based on a best-case scenario of the oil price returning to 100 US dollars per barrel


    http://news.stv.tv/north/1327188-scots-geographical-oil-revenue-share-falls-75-scottish-government-figures/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    He also predicted that if there was austerity, Britain would not come out of recession for many years and would lag far behind the US and Europe.

    Some people still listen to him, because of his really remarkable knack of saying what they want to hear. Corbyn's admirers will seize on this - but anyone who has heard of Blanchflower will simply be confirmed in their views that Corbyn has no economic credibility at all.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    A change of government requires a government perceived to have failed and a credible opposition. 1992 had one but not the other.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Good morning, everyone.

    Saw a strange thing, this morning. A small slime trail on the lounge carpet. Very narrow, only a few, mostly overlapping, feet long. The creature nowhere to be seen, and the trail just appears from nowhere, rather than coming from the doorway.

    Any thoughts?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Don't you have a pet, Mr Dancer?

    Maybe check its fur to see if there is a small snail in it. Could have got picked up accidentally outside, fallen off inside and been picked up/eaten later on.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    anyone who has heard of Blanchflower will simply be confirmed in their views that Corbyn has no economic credibility at all.
    That may be why the Grauniad buried his name half way down the article......even they know.....
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Boris might be a joke, but he's a bumbling harmless kind of joke.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2015

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off the recovery inherited from Labour, and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    A change of government requires a government perceived to have failed and a credible opposition. 1992 had one but not the other.

    The point at which the UK electorate think Jeremy Corbyn leads a credible Govt.-in-waiting is the point at which you should be selling up and getting out ...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Doethur, that's eminently possible. Next time the beast is uncaged we'll see if she has anything in her fur (suspect it's been eaten by now, but still worth a look).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    ydoethur said:

    I would give a whole English pound (honorary Cardi) to be a fly on the wall when MalcolmG reads this:

    We saw in the Scottish Independence referendum, it is possible to garner (and hold on to) the support of 45% of voters, even if your economic policies are incoherent, lacking in any economic or fiscal reality, so long as you can sell a vision that your plans are better than the status quo. 45% might not win a referendum, but under FPTP it can lead to a landslide in a general election. One of the things the SNP have managed to do brilliantly is get people who haven’t voted in the past to come out and vote for them, something Labour haven’t been able to replicate, Corbyn might be the man to do that with a different, bold vision.
    Although I would of course want to be out of range of a rolled-up newspaper!

    More seriously, I'm not sure that transfers very well to the UK as a whole. Yes, the SNP turned out 45% to vote yes. But of those 45%, what proportion were voting on economic arguments? Probably not that many. I would guess a very large proportion voted on a number of more or less 'gut' issues: hatred of the English, a belief that Scotland is being treated as a second-class country when it is just as good as (better?) than England, a genuine desire for independence, dislike of Cameron, Osborne and Miliband, etc.



    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    ydoethur, Tut Tut, making false assertions this early on a Sunday. We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits rather than having to pay increasing levies to Westminster to pay for their follies. I have yet to meet anyone who hates the English , we are treated badly by Westminster and we do dislike the right wing Tory governments who think only of their chums and south east. Corbyn is just a mirror image of baw face and squeaky.
    The Tories will pay as well however as the inequality in the UK forces people to the extremes. They are far too smug at the moment thinking they are popular when they are in fact winning by default of being the least crap at present. Corbyn will come and go and the next one is unlikely to be crap.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Are you sure it was the heel of your radius that was knocked, and not your head?

    And what's a neo-Thatcherite?

    I think you've got baby-brain on this one.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off Labour's recovery and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
    Let me stop you right there. Labour's recovery?

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    You were saying?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2015
    I think it's very unlikely that Corbyn will be PM, global capitalism must suffer a meltdown in order to make Corbyn look credible on the economy. Without a recession he will be voter neutral, with one he might be able to reduce the Tories to a minority government dependent on the support of the N.Irish.

    He has a very low ceiling, but also a very high floor.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off Labour's recovery and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
    Let me stop you right there. Labour's recovery?

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    You were saying?
    Didn't Darling's plan to cut deeper and faster than Osborne?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited August 2015
    The problem for Labour with the thinking in tse's article and danny blanchflower's nonsense is that they give some hope that Corbyn may not be so bad. It is the hope that will stop Labour from ending the Corbyn car crash early. It is this hope that dooms Labour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits

    ROFLMAO

    Just about the only person in the World who makes Blanchflower look like an economic titan is Swinney

    The European Union has suspended around £45 million of payments to Scotland after the discovery of accounting “irregularities”, it emerged today.

    The EU said that the Scottish Government had done too little to resolve concerns about its accounting, seven months after the problems were first reported.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That sounds like Comrade Corbyn is going to wrap himself in the comfort blanket of protests and placards.

    Marvellous. Trafalgar Sq will generate a lot of Met overtime and scuffles/Guardian pieces about police kettling. And Laurie Penny can squeal about on Twitter.

    And the rest of us roll our eyes.
    alex. said:

    Sounds like he's going to be encouraging, indeed leading, direct action against any Government policy he disagrees with. When was the last leader of the Oppostion to get themselves arrested?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-strategic-state

    "Our opposition cannot be limited to the parliamentary chambers and TV studios of Westminster. Labour is best when it is a movement, and that movement has swelled to an enthusiastic 600,000 who will decide this leadership election. Once that is over, we face a bigger task: to force this government to abandon its free-market dogma and become the strategic state our society needs. That challenge begins on 12 September."

  • Waving a national flag, SNP style, is a lot more voter friendly than waving a red flag. Corbyn supporters have completely misunderstood what happened in Scotland. As the hugely popular SNP government's record shows it has nothing to do with socialism, being against austerity or even competence. The clue is in the name of the party.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits

    ROFLMAO

    Just about the only person in the World who makes Blanchflower look like an economic titan is Swinney

    The European Union has suspended around £45 million of payments to Scotland after the discovery of accounting “irregularities”, it emerged today.

    The EU said that the Scottish Government had done too little to resolve concerns about its accounting, seven months after the problems were first reported.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html

    Could those irregularities be of a criminal nature?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits

    ROFLMAO

    Just about the only person in the World who makes Blanchflower look like an economic titan is Swinney

    The European Union has suspended around £45 million of payments to Scotland after the discovery of accounting “irregularities”, it emerged today.

    The EU said that the Scottish Government had done too little to resolve concerns about its accounting, seven months after the problems were first reported.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html

    That story is Good For Yes, surely?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Your are experiencing False Consciousness. We are the 24%.
    RobD said:

    alex. said:

    Once that is over, we face a bigger task: to force this government to abandon its free-market dogma and become the strategic state our society needs. That challenge begins on 12 September."

    Aren't those decisions typically taken at the ballot box in general elections? like the one a few months ago?\
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off Labour's recovery and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
    Let me stop you right there. Labour's recovery?

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    You were saying?
    The economy was recovering under Labour. Osborne flat-lined it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    That story is Good For Yes, surely?

    Without doubt...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited August 2015

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off the recovery inherited from Labour, and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
    I think he's been through several iterations since then. I think he's now reached Plan A.

    "Austerity" is a political slogan, no more, no less. And a highly effective one for the Conservatives, because the public are in a position where they "accept" that "austerity" is necessary. So he can tweak/change his plans to his heart's content to adapt to what the economy is doing, but it doesn't matter what he does it's still "austerity". It also makes his opponents look in(un?)credible, because by attacking "austerity" without ever quite being able to define what austerity means, they are constantly attacking a moving target, and can never credibly present an alternative. The moment they try and articulate an alternative they find that Osborne has commandeered it, and their alternative has been renamed as "austerity".

    (the irony of course is that Labour has a problem that the SNP has commandeered the alternative slogan "anti-austerity", and they don't act upon it either)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Boris might be a joke, but he's a bumbling harmless kind of joke.
    not sure on the harmless, the rest are accurate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    edited August 2015
    malcolmg said:


    ydoethur, Tut Tut, making false assertions this early on a Sunday. We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits rather than having to pay increasing levies to Westminster to pay for their follies. I have yet to meet anyone who hates the English , we are treated badly by Westminster and we do dislike the right wing Tory governments who think only of their chums and south east. Corbyn is just a mirror image of baw face and squeaky.
    The Tories will pay as well however as the inequality in the UK forces people to the extremes. They are far too smug at the moment thinking they are popular when they are in fact winning by default of being the least crap at present. Corbyn will come and go and the next one is unlikely to be crap.

    Are you telling me Malcolm that the fly is safe? Because that is a great relief.

    On the substantive point - are you saying that most people voted 'yes' in the genuine belief that Scotland would be financially better off after independence? Because that certainly wasn't the impression I got watching at distance. Most pro-independence arguments seemed more or less emotive, most pro-union financial. I was therefore wondering whether the parallel to Corbyn - who as @SouthamObserver notes, doesn't have the emotive nationalist card to play - is a relevant one. If you think there is force to TSE's argument, I'd be glad to hear more.

    I should also like to add that on my recent visit to your fair country, people could not have been kinder or friendlier to me, and the quality of service in restaurants in Glasgow in particular was excellent. But I have definitely met English-hating SNP members in the past, which was an unpleasant experience even though strictly speaking I am not myself English. You come across the same phenomenon in Wales too. Very sad.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Mr. Doethur, that's eminently possible. Next time the beast is uncaged we'll see if she has anything in her fur (suspect it's been eaten by now, but still worth a look).

    Likely to be doing a Cameron and hiding under the couch or similar
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. D, Labour didn't have a plan, they had a slogan 'our deficit reduction plan'. With zero detail or even a fuzzy outline, and the media in 2010 not asking the most basic questions about it was ridiculous.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Plato said:

    Are you sure it was the heel of your radius that was knocked, and not your head?

    And what's a neo-Thatcherite?

    I think you've got baby-brain on this one.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Well, I did get whiplash and a bang on the noggin as well. ;)

    Perhaps that does explain it. But in my defence, there are many, many people who have not done as well out of the last few decades as the rest of us. Rightly or wrongly, there is a large amount of disenchantment out there, (*) and the Conservatives will ignore it at their peril.

    What would Corbyn need to do? He'd need to keep the people who voted Labour in 2015: and remember, these deluded fools were voting for a government led by Miliband, ffs. He would have to try to get out more of the Labour vote that may have stayed at home - and a positive, consistent (if mad) worldview might well do that. Add in a few people from the left side of the Lib Dems, some returning leftist UKIPpers, and a few Scots, and he could get a majority.

    The Conservatives need to counter this; many people may well vote for Corbyn's rosy world view rather than the Conservative's hard reality.

    (*) Although I'd argue there is always disenchantment; it is somewhat in human nature not to be satisfied.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off Labour's recovery and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
    Let me stop you right there. Labour's recovery?

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    You were saying?
    The economy was recovering under Labour. Osborne flat-lined it.
    The economy was showing tenuous growth, based on printing money to pay for a number of marginally effective stimulus schemes (car scrappage anyone?) that were designed to delay difficult decisions until after the election. They had to be paid for by printing money as nobody was willing to buy gilts from a government led by Brown.

    To call it a 'recovery' is to exaggerate its importance, causes and effects somewhat.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Looks like it will be a hot day on PB...Lots to read..must cut the grass first tho..I have been told.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited August 2015
    BTW when did Corbyn come up with the term "Strategic State"? Is it a new one or has it been around for a bit. Of course it presumably used to be known by its usual term "Centrally Planned Economy"...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. G, some cleaning is due to occur today, an ideal time to check.

    Sometimes I wish the house could be hermetically sealed. Had that 5" spider story the other day, and found one [thankfully not that size] in the afternoon.

    Maybe I should breed a smaller species of enormo-haddock to tackle the insectoid and arachnid menace.

    Speaking of insectoids, not that long until XCOM 2 comes out. Still don't get why it's PC-only to start with. Be interesting to see if the PS4 gets that or Banner Saga first.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    I see PB has entered silly season ....

    One must praise TSE for putting together such an entertainingly enjoyable narrative on this charming late summer early morning.

    However as the gentleman in white coats glide effortlessly toward Chez TSE armed with a screen grab as incontrovertible proof on insanity, let us collectively remember him in his pomp :

    Recall those salad days as he danced election nights away in those red shoes and sequin encrusted lycra shorts quoting tracts of ancient history as Con GAIN flashed over our screens and he poured forth on the finer details of upcoming AV threads mixed in with oblique references to pop hits of the 1970's and 80's.

    We shall remember him ....

    Men in white coats with straightjackets are rather old school.

    The modern fashion is for deluded people to be looked after outside institutions, somewhere where they have a little company and pleasant diversion. It is known as "Social Media".

    And are you suggesting that "Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister"?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits

    ROFLMAO

    Just about the only person in the World who makes Blanchflower look like an economic titan is Swinney

    The European Union has suspended around £45 million of payments to Scotland after the discovery of accounting “irregularities”, it emerged today.

    The EU said that the Scottish Government had done too little to resolve concerns about its accounting, seven months after the problems were first reported.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html

    LOL, a few bawbees held up for a month or two and rabid slavering Tory points to this as something special. You really are a desperate saddo. Take a look in the Mirror and see what real incompetents do as they line their chums pockets.
    This is the kind of stuff people like you love to see, proves your thinking and gets all these scroungers sorted out.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brutality-bedroom-tax-exposed-disgraceful-6302099#ICID=sharebar_twitter
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    But what about all the sensible Labourites who will run screaming from the room?

    I suspect there's a lot more of them that a rag tag mob of flirting Greenies, SWPers and the odd Scottish seat.

    Can't see many Kippers returning with terrorist hugging, Open Doors, scrap Trident and NATO on Labour's Bucket List. Patriotism, security and cultural stability are key factors for this group - why would they be attracted to Corbyn? And placard waving scruffs/dog-on-a-rope Trots aren't their sort either.

    I'd have thought that the Kipper offer is much more appealing if they get their message right.

    Plato said:

    Are you sure it was the heel of your radius that was knocked, and not your head?

    And what's a neo-Thatcherite?

    I think you've got baby-brain on this one.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Well, I did get whiplash and a bang on the noggin as well. ;)

    Perhaps that does explain it. But in my defence, there are many, many people who have not done as well out of the last few decades as the rest of us. Rightly or wrongly, there is a large amount of disenchantment out there, (*) and the Conservatives will ignore it at their peril.

    What would Corbyn need to do? He'd need to keep the people who voted Labour in 2015: and remember, these deluded fools were voting for a government led by Miliband, ffs. He would have to try to get out more of the Labour vote that may have stayed at home - and a positive, consistent (if mad) worldview might well do that. Add in a few people from the left side of the Lib Dems, some returning leftist UKIPpers, and a few Scots, and he could get a majority.

    The Conservatives need to counter this; many people may well vote for Corbyn's rosy world view rather than the Conservative's hard reality.

    (*) Although I'd argue there is always disenchantment; it is somewhat in human nature not to be satisfied.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    alex. said:

    BTW when did Corbyn come up with the term "Strategic State"? Is it a new one or has it been around for a bit. Of course it presumably used to be known by its usual term "Centrally Planned Economy"...

    It was in a HuffPo article in July:

    Our economy needs better infrastructure - for people and for businesses - and only a strategic state can deliver it.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn/invest-in-our-future_b_7755834.html
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    More than 40 leading economists, including a former adviser to the Bank of England, have made public their support for Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, dismissing claims that they are extreme, in a major boost to the leftwinger’s campaign to be leader.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-economists-backing-anti-austerity-policies-corbynomics

    Curiously, who the economist is is only mentioned further down - yes its Danny '5 Million Unemployed' Blanchflower.......

    He is 40 leading economists?

    Wow
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off Labour's recovery and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
    Let me stop you right there. Labour's recovery?

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    You were saying?
    The economy was recovering under Labour. Osborne flat-lined it.
    The economy was showing tenuous growth, based on printing money to pay for a number of marginally effective stimulus schemes (car scrappage anyone?) that were designed to delay difficult decisions until after the election. They had to be paid for by printing money as nobody was willing to buy gilts from a government led by Brown.

    To call it a 'recovery' is to exaggerate its importance, causes and effects somewhat.
    Under Osborne, is not the Bank of England the largest buyer of gilts? We must ask the City boys when they turn up. As for printing money, is that a reference to quantitative easing, continued by Osborne, or to government debt which has reached record levels under Osborne?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Plato said:

    But what about all the sensible Labourites who will run screaming from the room?

    I suspect there's a lot more of them that a rag tag mob of flirting Greenies, SWPers and the odd Scottish seat.

    Can't see many Kippers returning with terrorist hugging, Open Doors, scrap Trident and NATO on Labour's Bucket List. Patriotism, security and cultural stability are key factors for this group - why would they be attracted to Corbyn? And placard waving scruffs/dog-on-a-rope Trots aren't their sort either.

    I'd have thought that the Kipper offer is much more appealing if they get their message right.

    Plato said:

    Are you sure it was the heel of your radius that was knocked, and not your head?

    And what's a neo-Thatcherite?

    I think you've got baby-brain on this one.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Well, I did get whiplash and a bang on the noggin as well. ;)

    Perhaps that does explain it. But in my defence, there are many, many people who have not done as well out of the last few decades as the rest of us. Rightly or wrongly, there is a large amount of disenchantment out there, (*) and the Conservatives will ignore it at their peril.

    What would Corbyn need to do? He'd need to keep the people who voted Labour in 2015: and remember, these deluded fools were voting for a government led by Miliband, ffs. He would have to try to get out more of the Labour vote that may have stayed at home - and a positive, consistent (if mad) worldview might well do that. Add in a few people from the left side of the Lib Dems, some returning leftist UKIPpers, and a few Scots, and he could get a majority.

    The Conservatives need to counter this; many people may well vote for Corbyn's rosy world view rather than the Conservative's hard reality.

    (*) Although I'd argue there is always disenchantment; it is somewhat in human nature not to be satisfied.
    Indeed. But those same people voted for Miliband. Don't discount more people going through a Palmeresque conversion to Corbynism.

    I'm not saying it'll happen, or even that it's likely. But it's certainly possible, and becomes more possible if there's another economic shock in the next five years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    More than 40 leading economists, including a former adviser to the Bank of England, have made public their support for Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, dismissing claims that they are extreme, in a major boost to the leftwinger’s campaign to be leader.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-economists-backing-anti-austerity-policies-corbynomics

    Curiously, who the economist is is only mentioned further down - yes its Danny '5 Million Unemployed' Blanchflower.......

    He is 40 leading economists?

    Wow
    Shhh - Blanchflower may believe he is. Don't confront him with reality, from past experience he doesn't like it.

    And with that, I am off to the seaside. Have a good weekend everyone!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ROFL

    What is the surefire indication a poster has absolutely nothing to say...?
    malcolmg said:

    Take a look in the Mirror

    The EU says Swinney can't manage his finances. The EU, who haven't had their accounts signed off for years, says Swinney can't handle money...

    No wonder Nicola dare not mention IndyRef2
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    ydoethur, Tut Tut, making false assertions this early on a Sunday. We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits rather than having to pay increasing levies to Westminster to pay for their follies. I have yet to meet anyone who hates the English , we are treated badly by Westminster and we do dislike the right wing Tory governments who think only of their chums and south east. Corbyn is just a mirror image of baw face and squeaky.
    The Tories will pay as well however as the inequality in the UK forces people to the extremes. They are far too smug at the moment thinking they are popular when they are in fact winning by default of being the least crap at present. Corbyn will come and go and the next one is unlikely to be crap.

    Are you telling me Malcolm that the fly is safe? Because that is a great relief.

    On the substantive point - are you saying that most people voted 'yes' in the genuine belief that Scotland would be financially better off after independence? Because that certainly wasn't the impression I got watching at distance. Most pro-independence arguments seemed more or less emotive, most pro-union financial. I was therefore wondering whether the parallel to Corbyn - who as @SouthamObserver notes, doesn't have the emotive nationalist card to play - is a relevant one. If you think there is force to TSE's argument, I'd be glad to hear more.

    I should also like to add that on my recent visit to your fair country, people could not have been kinder or friendlier to me, and the quality of service in restaurants in Glasgow in particular was excellent. But I have definitely met English-hating SNP members in the past, which was an unpleasant experience even though strictly speaking I am not myself English. You come across the same phenomenon in Wales too. Very sad.
    Ydoethur, Paper has not been delivered yet so you are safe. I doubt money is the be all and end all for all people, and many were happy to take the chance that it is possible to do OK like other countries without having the nasty policies we see from Westminster. As you say they did manage to scare enough people into thinking they would be worse off but such is life.
    On your other point you see the same phenomenon in England as well, their are sick crazies across the UK.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. L, the only for government debt to decline would be to run a surplus that exceeds interest payments. Given Labour bitched about cutting 'too far and too fast', the claim the deficit hasn't been cut fast enough would seem a shade... incongruous.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    More than 40 leading economists, including a former adviser to the Bank of England, have made public their support for Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, dismissing claims that they are extreme, in a major boost to the leftwinger’s campaign to be leader.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-economists-backing-anti-austerity-policies-corbynomics

    Curiously, who the economist is is only mentioned further down - yes its Danny '5 Million Unemployed' Blanchflower.......

    He is 40 leading economists?

    Wow
    Sums aren't his strong suit.......
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. P, although, to be fair, the British currency union's doing a little better than the eurozone ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STVNews: Scotland's geographical share of Norh Sea oil revenues fell by over 75% in the first three months of 2015. http://t.co/JPZkHPnJnQ
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Plato said:

    Are you sure it was the heel of your radius that was knocked, and not your head?

    And what's a neo-Thatcherite?

    I think you've got baby-brain on this one.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Conservatives are being far too dismissive of the dangers of a Labour party led by Corbyn. Whilst he seems a joke at the moment, we should not underestimate the public's ability to vote for jokes. Just look at Boris as London mayor, or Ed Miliband's entire time as leader.

    In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,

    Well, I did get whiplash and a bang on the noggin as well. ;)

    Perhaps that does explain it. But in my defence, there are many, many people who have not done as well out of the last few decades as the rest of us. Rightly or wrongly, there is a large amount of disenchantment out there, (*) and the Conservatives will ignore it at their peril.

    What would Corbyn need to do? He'd need to keep the people who voted Labour in 2015: and remember, these deluded fools were voting for a government led by Miliband, ffs. He would have to try to get out more of the Labour vote that may have stayed at home - and a positive, consistent (if mad) worldview might well do that. Add in a few people from the left side of the Lib Dems, some returning leftist UKIPpers, and a few Scots, and he could get a majority.

    The Conservatives need to counter this; many people may well vote for Corbyn's rosy world view rather than the Conservative's hard reality.

    (*) Although I'd argue there is always disenchantment; it is somewhat in human nature not to be satisfied.
    If the Tories were applying the same medicine to themselves as to the plebs it would be fairer, but filling their pockets whilst beggaring the rest is usual for them. Trouble ahead.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited August 2015
    Remind me again why Cameron thinks stopping the use of encryption is a good idea ?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207396/Thousands-exposed-massive-new-data-hack-s-not-just-adulterers-outed-web-PC-hard-drive-risk-Google-hackers.html
    Thousands of Britons have been made vulnerable to cyber crime after the secret contents of their computers were exposed on the internet by a vast website dubbed the ‘Google for hackers’.
    Family photographs, medical records and bank statements can all be easily downloaded from the site because of glaring security flaws in hard drives used to back up and store personal and business data, a Mail on Sunday investigation has found.
    Highly confidential files belonging to a High Street law firm were also freely available on the website, called Shodan, including full details of their clients’ financial affairs, passports and driving licences.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    alex. said:

    BTW when did Corbyn come up with the term "Strategic State"? Is it a new one or has it been around for a bit. Of course it presumably used to be known by its usual term "Centrally Planned Economy"...

    Blairites speak of the "active state". Since the Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons, there is a large overlap in what this entails, even where the rhetoric differs.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited August 2015
    Scott_P said:

    ROFL

    What is the surefire indication a poster has absolutely nothing to say...?

    malcolmg said:

    Take a look in the Mirror

    The EU says Swinney can't manage his finances. The EU, who haven't had their accounts signed off for years, says Swinney can't handle money...

    No wonder Nicola dare not mention IndyRef2
    I see you have no answer as ever , go put your jackboots on and prance up and down your bedsit.

    PS: Perhaps if you could read you would have seen the following:

    “No money will be lost to Scotland as a result of this process."
    “Current interruptions to programme payments were prompted by some public bodies failing to comply with their audit obligations. This is unacceptable and is being addressed.”
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Quite. Have you read Bankrolling Basra? A superb book, I've read several times http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1845295102?keywords=bankrolling basra&qid=1440314310&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1

    The merchant banker TA chappy put in charge of running Southern Iraqi finances was stunned at how *centrally planned* Saddam's rule had been. No one - literally no one - did anything without an official memo first.
    alex. said:

    BTW when did Corbyn come up with the term "Strategic State"? Is it a new one or has it been around for a bit. Of course it presumably used to be known by its usual term "Centrally Planned Economy"...

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Corbyn as PM. “You can’t be serious, man. You cannot be serious!”

    It would need a major foul up by the Tories to let this muppet near Downing Street, and there may be an assumption that Labour holds together under JC without significant rebellions or defections.

    Blair, Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, only one of them was capable of keeping the Tories out of power for 13 years. Labour need to ask why tacking Left after Blair didn't work or appeal to enough voters.

    Miliband's premature resignation, has turned Labour into a party of farce. He must have had magic mushrooms with his bacon butty on May 8th.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Indigo, must be said Cameron's completely ****ing ignorant of the most basic aspects of technology. His advisers should be pointing out how mad that policy is. The press should be all over it.

    It's like trying to stop kiddy fiddlers by destroying their sex drives through contaminating the water supply with sterilising drugs. Great. Except you've just hit everybody when you're after a tiny percentage of the population.

    Of course, if we had an opposition that wasn't trying to decide whether Stalinism or Trotskyism is best they might be able to make some headway on this simple yet completely indefensible mountain of stupidity.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    I look forward to a time when it's possible to go from Mandela Avenue through Hezbollah Way past Mcguiness Square and into the Peoples Chamber without ever having to pass the statue of Citizen Thatcher
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    Any new leader the Conservatives choose will be more appealing to swing voters in marginal seats than Jeremy Corbyn. They may be less happy to vote Conservative under a more right wing leader than Cameron, but if it's a choice of Corbyn v right wing Conservative, right wing Conservative wins. That would be true even during or after a recession. If you're a property owner, and/or have right wing beliefs, Corbyn is anathema. Corbyn could only win in a country like Greece.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. L, the only for government debt to decline would be to run a surplus that exceeds interest payments. Given Labour bitched about cutting 'too far and too fast', the claim the deficit hasn't been cut fast enough would seem a shade... incongruous.

    It must make Conservatives yearn for the days of Gordon Brown paying off Conservative debt. Brown was also the last Chancellor to run a surplus, but then surpluses were more common under Labour than Conservative governments since the war.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    ROFL

    What is the surefire indication a poster has absolutely nothing to say...?

    malcolmg said:

    Take a look in the Mirror

    The EU says Swinney can't manage his finances. The EU, who haven't had their accounts signed off for years, says Swinney can't handle money...

    No wonder Nicola dare not mention IndyRef2
    go put your jackboots on and prance up and down your bedsit.
    And the first Godwin of the day goes to.......
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Is this malcolmg character a real Scots Nat or a very cleverly-observed spoof?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited August 2015

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    ROFL

    What is the surefire indication a poster has absolutely nothing to say...?

    malcolmg said:

    Take a look in the Mirror

    The EU says Swinney can't manage his finances. The EU, who haven't had their accounts signed off for years, says Swinney can't handle money...

    No wonder Nicola dare not mention IndyRef2
    go put your jackboots on and prance up and down your bedsit.
    And the first Godwin of the day goes to.......
    The right wing nutters are massing, just need Square Root and we will have all the stooges on stage.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    ydoethur said:


    I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.

    (Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)

    Danny Blanchflower in 2009 said Tory plans would lead to four million unemployed. Five million was "not inconceivable". It is actually around 1.85m.

    The man is fool.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    But George Osborne is not a fool. Blanchflower's predictions were based on Osborne's Plan A. When Osborne realised his critics were right and he had indeed choked off Labour's recovery and flatlined the economy, he abandoned Plan A and switched to a new plan, confusingly also called Plan A.
    Let me stop you right there. Labour's recovery?

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    You were saying?
    The economy was recovering under Labour. Osborne flat-lined it.
    I recall the economy contracting by 8% during Labour's last two and a half years in office. I certainly don't recall there being a recovery. There's been a recovery subsequent to their leaving office.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Is this malcolmg character a real Scots Nat or a very cleverly-observed spoof?

    Are you the full shilling , or are you just pretending
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. L, only those with terminal amnesia.

    Why is Brown the last chap to run a surplus? Could it be that he initially copied Conservative economic plans, then crashed the economy with the worst recession in history meaning we still have a massive deficit after five years of cuts that were 'too far and too fast'?

    You silly sausage.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Is this malcolmg character a real Scots Nat or a very cleverly-observed spoof?

    Shhhh!

    We've successfully suppressed the discovery of major new oil fields off Scotland and engineered a global oil price collapse - the last thing we want is them finding out about MI7!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Mr. L, the only for government debt to decline would be to run a surplus that exceeds interest payments. Given Labour bitched about cutting 'too far and too fast', the claim the deficit hasn't been cut fast enough would seem a shade... incongruous.

    It must make Conservatives yearn for the days of Gordon Brown paying off Conservative debt. Brown was also the last Chancellor to run a surplus, but then surpluses were more common under Labour than Conservative governments since the war.
    That couldn't be anything to do with the state of the economy they inherited and its trajectory, could it?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Mr. L, only those with terminal amnesia.

    Why is Brown the last chap to run a surplus? Could it be that he initially copied Conservative economic plans, then crashed the economy with the worst recession in history meaning we still have a massive deficit after five years of cuts that were 'too far and too fast'?

    You silly sausage.

    MD, accept it , he was the last person to run a surplus. If only he had not lost it and become a Tory and blew it then things would have been much better today.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. L, the only for government debt to decline would be to run a surplus that exceeds interest payments. Given Labour bitched about cutting 'too far and too fast', the claim the deficit hasn't been cut fast enough would seem a shade... incongruous.

    It must make Conservatives yearn for the days of Gordon Brown paying off Conservative debt. Brown was also the last Chancellor to run a surplus, but then surpluses were more common under Labour than Conservative governments since the war.
    That couldn't be anything to do with the state of the economy they inherited and its trajectory, could it?
    The economy's trajectory was up, until Osborne choked off the recovery he inherited.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Rather an interesting piece and a refreshing change from many of this sites's posts which would make the rocks weep in despair with their recycled propaganda posing as argument.

    However it is rather wasted by being written as a devils argument. TSE clearly doesn't believe that Corbyn ia a danger just wants to provoke the more anxious Tories among us - the ones who have regular nightmares about all sorts of things.

    Finally TSE heavily and rather patronisingly underates the strength of presentation of the Scottish independence argument last year. Against a hugely hostile press corps (and Nick Robinson et al) it was done rather well - those on this site who don't accept that an independent Scotland would be a viable and successful state really do need to extend their reading beyond the Daily Telegraph.

    And there I think is the key difference. In reaching over and beyond the establishment media I think I would back Salmond in Scotland to do a lot better than Corbyn in the UK. And that I fear, plus the bottomless pit of right wing Labour treachery, will be Jeremy's fall.



  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    I look forward to a time when it's possible to go from Mandela Avenue through Hezbollah Way past Mcguiness Square and into the Peoples Chamber without ever having to pass the statue of Citizen Thatcher

    On the way to Savile 'fuss about nothing' Childrens' Hospital?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Using the central bank to print money to pay for government spending is unlawful under EU law. You'd get Carney resigning and would have to bring the BoE back under government control through legislation.

    Nationalisation without compensation would also be unlawful. There would also be ECHR challenges.

    About the only people a Corbyn led government would be good for would be the lawyers.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    scotslass said:

    Rather an interesting piece and a refreshing change from many of this sites's posts which would make the rocks weep in despair with their recycled propaganda posing as argument.

    However it is rather wasted by being written as a devils argument. TSE clearly doesn't believe that Corbyn ia a danger just wants to provoke the more anxious Tories among us - the ones who have regular nightmares about all sorts of things.

    Finally TSE heavily and rather patronisingly underates the strength of presentation of the Scottish independence argument last year. Against a hugely hostile press corps (and Nick Robinson et al) it was done rather well - those on this site who don't accept that an independent Scotland would be a viable and successful state really do need to extend their reading beyond the Daily Telegraph.

    And there I think is the key difference. In reaching over and beyond the establishment media I think I would back Salmond in Scotland to do a lot better than Corbyn in the UK. And that I fear, plus the bottomless pit of right wing Labour treachery, will be Jeremy's fall.



    Too wordy.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Mr. L, the only for government debt to decline would be to run a surplus that exceeds interest payments. Given Labour bitched about cutting 'too far and too fast', the claim the deficit hasn't been cut fast enough would seem a shade... incongruous.

    It must make Conservatives yearn for the days of Gordon Brown paying off Conservative debt. Brown was also the last Chancellor to run a surplus, but then surpluses were more common under Labour than Conservative governments since the war.
    That couldn't be anything to do with the state of the economy they inherited and its trajectory, could it?
    The economy's trajectory was up, until Osborne choked off the recovery he inherited.
    That isn't actually true, though. Certainly Brown managed to create the illusion it was true by borrowing from the future in a failed attempt to buy votes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. G, that's like saying the empire was more stable in Commodus' reign than Aurelian's.

    Interesting you're still using 'Tory' as an insult. Something Labour and the SNP have in common (although admittedly the SNP has had two competent leaders in a row, whereas Labour are plunging in a death spiral of ever increasing incompetence).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. L, only those with terminal amnesia.

    Why is Brown the last chap to run a surplus? Could it be that he initially copied Conservative economic plans, then crashed the economy with the worst recession in history meaning we still have a massive deficit after five years of cuts that were 'too far and too fast'?

    You silly sausage.

    The crash was global and not caused here. You are in danger of arguing that Gordon Brown was a towering genius who kept Britain safe from the global economic meltdown, only to be undone by a quite separate, homegrown collapse.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    scotslass said:

    those on this site who don't accept that an independent Scotland would be a viable and successful state

    Straw Man

    The argument is about HOW Scotland would be a viable and successful independent state - an argument the SNP clearly failed to carry under a year ago.

    Simple questions like 'currency' went unanswered beyond 'they're lying!'
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. L, the only for government debt to decline would be to run a surplus that exceeds interest payments. Given Labour bitched about cutting 'too far and too fast', the claim the deficit hasn't been cut fast enough would seem a shade... incongruous.

    It must make Conservatives yearn for the days of Gordon Brown paying off Conservative debt. Brown was also the last Chancellor to run a surplus, but then surpluses were more common under Labour than Conservative governments since the war.
    That couldn't be anything to do with the state of the economy they inherited and its trajectory, could it?
    The economy's trajectory was up, until Osborne choked off the recovery he inherited.
    That isn't actually true, though. Certainly Brown managed to create the illusion it was true by borrowing from the future in a failed attempt to buy votes.
    It is actually true though, and does "borrowing from the future" mean anything?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Mr. L, the only for government debt to decline would be to run a surplus that exceeds interest payments. Given Labour bitched about cutting 'too far and too fast', the claim the deficit hasn't been cut fast enough would seem a shade... incongruous.

    It must make Conservatives yearn for the days of Gordon Brown paying off Conservative debt. Brown was also the last Chancellor to run a surplus, but then surpluses were more common under Labour than Conservative governments since the war.
    That couldn't be anything to do with the state of the economy they inherited and its trajectory, could it?
    The economy's trajectory was up, until Osborne choked off the recovery he inherited.
    That isn't actually true, though. Certainly Brown managed to create the illusion it was true by borrowing from the future in a failed attempt to buy votes.
    It is actually true though, and does "borrowing from the future" mean anything?
    Yes, if you look into the details of the GDP figures from 2010Q2.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    Mr. L, only those with terminal amnesia.

    Why is Brown the last chap to run a surplus? Could it be that he initially copied Conservative economic plans, then crashed the economy with the worst recession in history meaning we still have a massive deficit after five years of cuts that were 'too far and too fast'?

    You silly sausage.

    The crash was global and not caused here. You are in danger of arguing that Gordon Brown was a towering genius who kept Britain safe from the global economic meltdown, only to be undone by a quite separate, homegrown collapse.
    Do you still not know who was in charge of bank regulation ?

    London was at the time the world's largest financial centre.
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