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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn’s path to Number 10
There are those, inside and outside of the Labour party, who think by electing Jeremy Corbyn as leader, Labour are committing the greatest strategic blunder since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star. By electing Corbyn Labour can say goodbye to taking power in 2020, but is that assumption correct?
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I predicted a month or so back on here that the Labour Party would split, it seems inevitable now. Corbyn's mob will, by default, claim to be "real" labour, the "new" lot will splinter off.
After a particularly fraught EU referendum, the Tories could elect someone who is the antithesis of David Cameron’s One Nation Conservatism. All those voters in the marginals that backed the Tories, and the gains the Tories made from the Lib Dems might be at risk. Even if the referendum doesn’t damage the Tory party, I’m not sure there is anyone in the Tory party who can appeal to these type of voters in the way David Cameron can. As the 2001 Tory leadership election showed, the Tories can make horrifically bad leadership decisions too.
Quite. One should never underestimate the Tories capacity to scr@w things up.....
One must praise TSE for putting together such an entertainingly enjoyable narrative on this charming late summer early morning.
However as the gentleman in white coats glide effortlessly toward Chez TSE armed with a screen grab as incontrovertible proof on insanity, let us collectively remember him in his pomp :
Recall those salad days as he danced election nights away in those red shoes and sequin encrusted lycra shorts quoting tracts of ancient history as Con GAIN flashed over our screens and he poured forth on the finer details of upcoming AV threads mixed in with oblique references to pop hits of the 1970's and 80's.
We shall remember him ....
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-economists-backing-anti-austerity-policies-corbynomics
Curiously, who the economist is is only mentioned further down - yes its Danny '5 Million Unemployed' Blanchflower.......
Where to start?
Point of pedantry - Guernsey and Jersey are not 'part of the UK' - never have been.
Both were DEMILITARISED and ORDERED not to resist. Not a lot of point in fighting on an island that can be shelled from Occupied France.
In an island of 24 sq miles where exactly do you retreat to after a counter attack? A bit different if you've got 8,650,000 square miles to play with.
'Liberation Day' is celebrated on the 9th of May - two days after VE day - when the British finally got round to Liberating the Channel Islands - after Operation Overlord the Channel Islands and their German garrisons were cut off from Europe and supplies and left to starve.
The Labour brand would irretrievably tarnished, just about the time the first doctors and nurses aren't getting paid....
In 2020 we'll have had 41 years of a Thatcherite or neo-Thatcherite consensus. It might be that large swathes of the public are ready for an alternative, however disastrous that might be,
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-strategic-state
"Our opposition cannot be limited to the parliamentary chambers and TV studios of Westminster. Labour is best when it is a movement, and that movement has swelled to an enthusiastic 600,000 who will decide this leadership election. Once that is over, we face a bigger task: to force this government to abandon its free-market dogma and become the strategic state our society needs. That challenge begins on 12 September."
this government is not just replaying 2010, but taking us back to 1979......If you want to revive manufacturing and rebalance the economy then you need a strategic state leading the way......
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-strategic-state
I feel it my fervent duty to extend an element of gastronomic heaven to those whose mind has been addled by a combination of excessive focus on PB and the all compassing allure of Kay Burley at Sky News.
More seriously, I'm not sure that transfers very well to the UK as a whole. Yes, the SNP turned out 45% to vote yes. But of those 45%, what proportion were voting on economic arguments? Probably not that many. I would guess a very large proportion voted on a number of more or less 'gut' issues: hatred of the English, a belief that Scotland is being treated as a second-class country when it is just as good as (better?) than England, a genuine desire for independence, dislike of Cameron, Osborne and Miliband, etc.
The 55% voting no, on the other hand, will likely have been swayed by the economic arguments. And I suspect, in the absence of emotional one-off pleas for national self-determination, that is what most people will be voting on in a general election. Of course, whoever is PM may struggle on economic credibility if there is another recession. But it is very hard to see how they could be less credible than a man who believes (1) printing money is the best way to pay all the government's bills and (2) the confiscation of private property without compensation is a good thing; which is certainly how Corbyn will be portrayed. One offers comparisons with Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe, the second with Venezuela and Zimbabwe. It would be like shooting fish in a barrel.
I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.
(Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)
But I generally don't watch Sky News. Can I blame it on codeine instead?
And the London electorate could take a risk/have a laugh electing Boris - he wasn't going to trash the economy or push up taxes or destroy property prices or end up killing the NHS....
@JosiasJessop - Never Wrong For Long.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/635330657829261312/photo/1
The man is fool.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
In its oil and gas bulletin published in May 2014, the Scottish Government estimated that oil revenues would be between £15.8bn and £38.7bn between 2014/15 and 2018/19.
It latest bulletin, published in June this year, said revenues could be as low as £2.4bn for 2016/17 to 2019/20, with it highest estimate at £10.8bn, based on a best-case scenario of the oil price returning to 100 US dollars per barrel
http://news.stv.tv/north/1327188-scots-geographical-oil-revenue-share-falls-75-scottish-government-figures/
Some people still listen to him, because of his really remarkable knack of saying what they want to hear. Corbyn's admirers will seize on this - but anyone who has heard of Blanchflower will simply be confirmed in their views that Corbyn has no economic credibility at all.
Saw a strange thing, this morning. A small slime trail on the lounge carpet. Very narrow, only a few, mostly overlapping, feet long. The creature nowhere to be seen, and the trail just appears from nowhere, rather than coming from the doorway.
Any thoughts?
Maybe check its fur to see if there is a small snail in it. Could have got picked up accidentally outside, fallen off inside and been picked up/eaten later on.
More seriously, I'm not sure that transfers very well to the UK as a whole. Yes, the SNP turned out 45% to vote yes. But of those 45%, what proportion were voting on economic arguments? Probably not that many. I would guess a very large proportion voted on a number of more or less 'gut' issues: hatred of the English, a belief that Scotland is being treated as a second-class country when it is just as good as (better?) than England, a genuine desire for independence, dislike of Cameron, Osborne and Miliband, etc.
I think the only way Corbyn could win a general election is if the entire Conservative party was banned from standing. Even then, he might struggle.
(Blanchflower's letter is the kiss of death for Corbyn's economic credibility among the intelligentsia anyway - a man who owes his career to being completely wrong on every major issue, but as it happens, completely in accord with the views of those he is speaking to. He has the credibility of Hugo Chavez's daughter without the ability.)
ydoethur, Tut Tut, making false assertions this early on a Sunday. We all know of course that had the SNP had teh chance to implement their own economic policies that Scotland would be ready to reap the benefits rather than having to pay increasing levies to Westminster to pay for their follies. I have yet to meet anyone who hates the English , we are treated badly by Westminster and we do dislike the right wing Tory governments who think only of their chums and south east. Corbyn is just a mirror image of baw face and squeaky.
The Tories will pay as well however as the inequality in the UK forces people to the extremes. They are far too smug at the moment thinking they are popular when they are in fact winning by default of being the least crap at present. Corbyn will come and go and the next one is unlikely to be crap.
And what's a neo-Thatcherite?
I think you've got baby-brain on this one.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
You were saying?
He has a very low ceiling, but also a very high floor.
Just about the only person in the World who makes Blanchflower look like an economic titan is Swinney http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html
Marvellous. Trafalgar Sq will generate a lot of Met overtime and scuffles/Guardian pieces about police kettling. And Laurie Penny can squeal about on Twitter.
And the rest of us roll our eyes.
Could those irregularities be of a criminal nature?
That story is Good For Yes, surely?
"Austerity" is a political slogan, no more, no less. And a highly effective one for the Conservatives, because the public are in a position where they "accept" that "austerity" is necessary. So he can tweak/change his plans to his heart's content to adapt to what the economy is doing, but it doesn't matter what he does it's still "austerity". It also makes his opponents look in(un?)credible, because by attacking "austerity" without ever quite being able to define what austerity means, they are constantly attacking a moving target, and can never credibly present an alternative. The moment they try and articulate an alternative they find that Osborne has commandeered it, and their alternative has been renamed as "austerity".
(the irony of course is that Labour has a problem that the SNP has commandeered the alternative slogan "anti-austerity", and they don't act upon it either)
On the substantive point - are you saying that most people voted 'yes' in the genuine belief that Scotland would be financially better off after independence? Because that certainly wasn't the impression I got watching at distance. Most pro-independence arguments seemed more or less emotive, most pro-union financial. I was therefore wondering whether the parallel to Corbyn - who as @SouthamObserver notes, doesn't have the emotive nationalist card to play - is a relevant one. If you think there is force to TSE's argument, I'd be glad to hear more.
I should also like to add that on my recent visit to your fair country, people could not have been kinder or friendlier to me, and the quality of service in restaurants in Glasgow in particular was excellent. But I have definitely met English-hating SNP members in the past, which was an unpleasant experience even though strictly speaking I am not myself English. You come across the same phenomenon in Wales too. Very sad.
Perhaps that does explain it. But in my defence, there are many, many people who have not done as well out of the last few decades as the rest of us. Rightly or wrongly, there is a large amount of disenchantment out there, (*) and the Conservatives will ignore it at their peril.
What would Corbyn need to do? He'd need to keep the people who voted Labour in 2015: and remember, these deluded fools were voting for a government led by Miliband, ffs. He would have to try to get out more of the Labour vote that may have stayed at home - and a positive, consistent (if mad) worldview might well do that. Add in a few people from the left side of the Lib Dems, some returning leftist UKIPpers, and a few Scots, and he could get a majority.
The Conservatives need to counter this; many people may well vote for Corbyn's rosy world view rather than the Conservative's hard reality.
(*) Although I'd argue there is always disenchantment; it is somewhat in human nature not to be satisfied.
To call it a 'recovery' is to exaggerate its importance, causes and effects somewhat.
Sometimes I wish the house could be hermetically sealed. Had that 5" spider story the other day, and found one [thankfully not that size] in the afternoon.
Maybe I should breed a smaller species of enormo-haddock to tackle the insectoid and arachnid menace.
Speaking of insectoids, not that long until XCOM 2 comes out. Still don't get why it's PC-only to start with. Be interesting to see if the PS4 gets that or Banner Saga first.
The modern fashion is for deluded people to be looked after outside institutions, somewhere where they have a little company and pleasant diversion. It is known as "Social Media".
And are you suggesting that "Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister"?
LOL, a few bawbees held up for a month or two and rabid slavering Tory points to this as something special. You really are a desperate saddo. Take a look in the Mirror and see what real incompetents do as they line their chums pockets.
This is the kind of stuff people like you love to see, proves your thinking and gets all these scroungers sorted out.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brutality-bedroom-tax-exposed-disgraceful-6302099#ICID=sharebar_twitter
I suspect there's a lot more of them that a rag tag mob of flirting Greenies, SWPers and the odd Scottish seat.
Can't see many Kippers returning with terrorist hugging, Open Doors, scrap Trident and NATO on Labour's Bucket List. Patriotism, security and cultural stability are key factors for this group - why would they be attracted to Corbyn? And placard waving scruffs/dog-on-a-rope Trots aren't their sort either.
I'd have thought that the Kipper offer is much more appealing if they get their message right.
Our economy needs better infrastructure - for people and for businesses - and only a strategic state can deliver it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn/invest-in-our-future_b_7755834.html
Wow
I'm not saying it'll happen, or even that it's likely. But it's certainly possible, and becomes more possible if there's another economic shock in the next five years.
And with that, I am off to the seaside. Have a good weekend everyone!
What is the surefire indication a poster has absolutely nothing to say...? The EU says Swinney can't manage his finances. The EU, who haven't had their accounts signed off for years, says Swinney can't handle money...
No wonder Nicola dare not mention IndyRef2
On your other point you see the same phenomenon in England as well, their are sick crazies across the UK.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207396/Thousands-exposed-massive-new-data-hack-s-not-just-adulterers-outed-web-PC-hard-drive-risk-Google-hackers.html
PS: Perhaps if you could read you would have seen the following:
“No money will be lost to Scotland as a result of this process."
“Current interruptions to programme payments were prompted by some public bodies failing to comply with their audit obligations. This is unacceptable and is being addressed.”
The merchant banker TA chappy put in charge of running Southern Iraqi finances was stunned at how *centrally planned* Saddam's rule had been. No one - literally no one - did anything without an official memo first.
It would need a major foul up by the Tories to let this muppet near Downing Street, and there may be an assumption that Labour holds together under JC without significant rebellions or defections.
Blair, Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, only one of them was capable of keeping the Tories out of power for 13 years. Labour need to ask why tacking Left after Blair didn't work or appeal to enough voters.
Miliband's premature resignation, has turned Labour into a party of farce. He must have had magic mushrooms with his bacon butty on May 8th.
It's like trying to stop kiddy fiddlers by destroying their sex drives through contaminating the water supply with sterilising drugs. Great. Except you've just hit everybody when you're after a tiny percentage of the population.
Of course, if we had an opposition that wasn't trying to decide whether Stalinism or Trotskyism is best they might be able to make some headway on this simple yet completely indefensible mountain of stupidity.
Why is Brown the last chap to run a surplus? Could it be that he initially copied Conservative economic plans, then crashed the economy with the worst recession in history meaning we still have a massive deficit after five years of cuts that were 'too far and too fast'?
You silly sausage.
We've successfully suppressed the discovery of major new oil fields off Scotland and engineered a global oil price collapse - the last thing we want is them finding out about MI7!
However it is rather wasted by being written as a devils argument. TSE clearly doesn't believe that Corbyn ia a danger just wants to provoke the more anxious Tories among us - the ones who have regular nightmares about all sorts of things.
Finally TSE heavily and rather patronisingly underates the strength of presentation of the Scottish independence argument last year. Against a hugely hostile press corps (and Nick Robinson et al) it was done rather well - those on this site who don't accept that an independent Scotland would be a viable and successful state really do need to extend their reading beyond the Daily Telegraph.
And there I think is the key difference. In reaching over and beyond the establishment media I think I would back Salmond in Scotland to do a lot better than Corbyn in the UK. And that I fear, plus the bottomless pit of right wing Labour treachery, will be Jeremy's fall.
Nationalisation without compensation would also be unlawful. There would also be ECHR challenges.
About the only people a Corbyn led government would be good for would be the lawyers.
Interesting you're still using 'Tory' as an insult. Something Labour and the SNP have in common (although admittedly the SNP has had two competent leaders in a row, whereas Labour are plunging in a death spiral of ever increasing incompetence).
The argument is about HOW Scotland would be a viable and successful independent state - an argument the SNP clearly failed to carry under a year ago.
Simple questions like 'currency' went unanswered beyond 'they're lying!'
London was at the time the world's largest financial centre.