politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election
Since the Conservatives somewhat unexpectedly won a majority in May most of the media attention has been focused on who the next Labour leader will be. But what about the Conservatives?
Comments
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Two new threads!
We are spoilt0 -
Excellent piece, thanks Keiran.0
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OK, well, future predictions are impossible.
My instinct is that Cameron will be more tempted to take any EU-related criticism on the chin. But nevertheless he will step down before the election. He will will have been PM for 9 or so years, and LOTO for another five.
Stepping down isn't always about your chance of winning.
I think he will however be more confident in asserting "his candidate" for the succession.0 -
It's an interesting question. I think he will step down.0
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"Of course, he may not want to stay on."
It's this though.
He's been at the top table for over ten years, time to take a step back.
Plus I think it'll do wonders for any historical legacy, walking away on his own terms.0 -
Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.0 -
Congratulations.TheWhiteRabbit said:Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.0 -
Mr. Rabbit, congratulations
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Two new threads?
Metaphor for the Labour Party?0 -
I think it's unlikely. Cameron has always done exactly what he said he would do.0
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Well done! Congratulations!TheWhiteRabbit said:Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.0 -
the annual publicity competitions that are strictly and i'm a celeb are of varying quality but seeing who the participants are is always interesting to see - so far so yawn for 2015 strictly for example.
The new annual labour leadership competition however offers great promise and whilst 2015 is a 'first effort' to iron out any wrinkles, I'm sure by 2016, the Labour Leader get me out of here show will be unmissable.....0 -
John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/0 -
I think Cameron will go, if Cameron stays it will be determined by, inter alia, the following
1) A huge victory for IN in the EU referendum, a loss and Dave's a gone, a close victory for IN, and who knows
2) How the Corbynite wing of the Tory Party, the Eurosceptics, deal with the result, whatever it is0 -
He might be tempted, but I think his rivals and potential successors would not let him even if he tried now. And win or lose, the EU ref would provide them an opportunity to see that he does not change his mind.0
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Congrats, Sir!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.0 -
Is Cameron our Stanley Baldwin?0
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Put your money of Kirsty Gallacher.Scrapheap_as_was said:the annual publicity competitions that are strictly and i'm a celeb are of varying quality but seeing who the participants are is always interesting to see - so far so yawn for 2015 strictly for example.
The new annual labour leadership competition however offers great promise and whilst 2015 is a 'first effort' to iron out any wrinkles, I'm sure by 2016, the Labour Leader get me out of here show will be unmissable.....
She's got my vote sewn up and the vote of every other hormonal and perverted middle England gentleman, who watches and votes.0 -
congratulationsTheWhiteRabbit said:Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.0 -
Isn't this a set of questions that he should have asked a month ago? Votes are already being registered. It is too late to really engage with the debate. There will be an urgency to vote quickly - particularly from the enthusiastic new supporters. The time for policy/process discussion is fast running out.Disraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.0 -
Excellent questionsDisraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/0 -
Great news!TheWhiteRabbit said:Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.0 -
Cameron also said he'd do the full 5yrs during a foreign trip press conf after the election.
I hope he steps down/hands over to new leader with about 18 months to go. He's done more than most PMs and I can't see [m]any positive reasons to stay on. Going out on his own terms is much better than events beating you to it.0 -
Any chance of the PLP deciding to appoint its own leader? I am not sure whether this would require simply a change in Standing Orders or effectively outright UDI but it might appeal to circa 200 members of the PLP who would continue to provide the Leader of the Opposition0
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They're super. Good primer for Tories too.Floater said:
Excellent questionsDisraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/0 -
Does "socially conservative" in the Cruddas piece mean anything other than anti-immigration? What else do people mean by it?oxfordsimon said:
Isn't this a set of questions that he should have asked a month ago? Votes are already being registered. It is too late to really engage with the debate. There will be an urgency to vote quickly - particularly from the enthusiastic new supporters. The time for policy/process discussion is fast running out.Disraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.0 -
TWR,,Well done..0
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The man who locked himself in a toilet because he wandered into the wrong room at work says...
@politicshome: .@jeremycorbyn is 'barking up the wrong tree' in Scotland, says @AngusMacNeilSNP: http://t.co/2u9nZkHvVy http://t.co/ezdcZYRvb70 -
That would be a formal declaration of (civil) war, so it's extremely unlikely.justin124 said:Any chance of the PLP deciding to appoint its own leader? I am not sure whether this would require simply a change in Standing Orders or effectively outright UDI but it might appeal to circa 200 members of the PLP who would continue to provide the Leader of the Opposition
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I don't see Cameron staying on. Takes too many holidays. Prime Ministers who really, really like being Prime Minister and have to be dragged out of No 10 seem to be workaholics (Maggie Thatcher, Gordon Brown). The exception was Blair but that was because he thought he'd been crowned rather than elected.0
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That's what I was talking about on the previous thread.justin124 said:Any chance of the PLP deciding to appoint its own leader? I am not sure whether this would require simply a change in Standing Orders or effectively outright UDI but it might appeal to circa 200 members of the PLP who would continue to provide the Leader of the Opposition
"New Labour" suddenly announced they have 200 MPs, leaving Old Labour with the unions...0 -
Scott_P said:
That's what I was talking about on the previous thread.justin124 said:Any chance of the PLP deciding to appoint its own leader? I am not sure whether this would require simply a change in Standing Orders or effectively outright UDI but it might appeal to circa 200 members of the PLP who would continue to provide the Leader of the Opposition
"New Labour" suddenly announced they have 200 MPs, leaving Old Labour with the unions...
But "New" would have no money and no members.
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Homophobic?foxinsoxuk said:
Does "socially conservative" in the Cruddas piece mean anything other than anti-immigration? What else do people mean by it?oxfordsimon said:
Isn't this a set of questions that he should have asked a month ago? Votes are already being registered. It is too late to really engage with the debate. There will be an urgency to vote quickly - particularly from the enthusiastic new supporters. The time for policy/process discussion is fast running out.Disraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.
Islamophobic?
People who still wear hats?0 -
The amusing line that is being spun is that the interviewer asked the question twice: once when Sam wasn't around and once when she was...and got different answers...Richard_Nabavi said:I think it's unlikely. Cameron has always done exactly what he said he would do.
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If Cameron stayed he would be accused of having lied in 2015.0
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Well, having no money has never been a problem. Just run a deficit...MarkHopkins said:But "New" would have no money and no members.
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I don't follow your logic for 1).TheScreamingEagles said:I think Cameron will go, if Cameron stays it will be determined by, inter alia, the following
1) A huge victory for IN in the EU referendum, a loss and Dave's a gone, a close victory for IN, and who knows
2) How the Corbynite wing of the Tory Party, the Eurosceptics, deal with the result, whatever it is
As far as I'm concerned, just because he didn't want to leave us to leave the EU doesn't mean he couldn't govern triumphantly over the subsequently Independent UK.
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All things are possible. I get the distinct impression that Samantha Cameron's views on the subject are at least as important as David Cameron's. Never mind persuading the electorate of a change of mind, I wouldn't like to have to make that case to an unyielding Samantha Cameron.0
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Fab. Well done. I know how much of a relief that can beTheWhiteRabbit said:Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.0 -
@TheWhiteRabbit – congratulations with the new job Sir, hope we get to see less of you
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I think Kezia has finally seen the light and has converted from Blairism to Corbynism - she was seen entering the Edinburgh rally:
https://twitter.com/iainmacwhirter/status/6321731191474790400 -
Me neither.Pauly said:
I don't follow your logic for 1).TheScreamingEagles said:I think Cameron will go, if Cameron stays it will be determined by, inter alia, the following
1) A huge victory for IN in the EU referendum, a loss and Dave's a gone, a close victory for IN, and who knows
2) How the Corbynite wing of the Tory Party, the Eurosceptics, deal with the result, whatever it is
As far as I'm concerned, just because he didn't want to leave us to leave the EU doesn't mean he couldn't govern triumphantly over the subsequently Independent UK.0 -
I think that Dave is astute enough to not follow Blair or Thatcher. Always leave them wanting more. He will not be short of things to do afterwards as an elder statesman, though it does make me feel old to have a retired PM who is younger than me!antifrank said:All things are possible. I get the distinct impression that Samantha Cameron's views on the subject are at least as important as David Cameron's. Never mind persuading the electorate of a change of mind, I wouldn't like to have to make that case to an unyielding Samantha Cameron.
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I normally think of as the opposite of 'socially liberal' - so (slightly stereotypically) anti gay marriage, pro capital punishment, pro harsh on drugs etc.foxinsoxuk said:
Does "socially conservative" in the Cruddas piece mean anything other than anti-immigration? What else do people mean by it?oxfordsimon said:
Isn't this a set of questions that he should have asked a month ago? Votes are already being registered. It is too late to really engage with the debate. There will be an urgency to vote quickly - particularly from the enthusiastic new supporters. The time for policy/process discussion is fast running out.Disraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.0 -
I think Dave goes before 2020, he's said he would and should have a splendid hinterland outside of politics.
He'll be a succesful PM and have departed on his own terms. That's very rare in politics.0 -
Samantha says: - Think again, I am not living in this dingy little flat for another 5 years.0
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Even the kippers seem socially liberal by that definition! The only people who seem to fit are the Islamists.Lennon said:
I normally think of as the opposite of 'socially liberal' - so (slightly stereotypically) anti gay marriage, pro capital punishment, pro harsh on drugs etc.foxinsoxuk said:
Does "socially conservative" in the Cruddas piece mean anything other than anti-immigration? What else do people mean by it?oxfordsimon said:
Isn't this a set of questions that he should have asked a month ago? Votes are already being registered. It is too late to really engage with the debate. There will be an urgency to vote quickly - particularly from the enthusiastic new supporters. The time for policy/process discussion is fast running out.Disraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.0 -
Good point. Tory Prime Ministers have done that before. Remember when Tory PM Tony Blair was adamant in the 2005 General Election that he would serve the full term as PM, then handed over to Gordon in 2007?justin124 said:If Cameron stayed he would be accused of having lied in 2015.
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On the plus side - none of the debts....MarkHopkins said:Scott_P said:
That's what I was talking about on the previous thread.justin124 said:Any chance of the PLP deciding to appoint its own leader? I am not sure whether this would require simply a change in Standing Orders or effectively outright UDI but it might appeal to circa 200 members of the PLP who would continue to provide the Leader of the Opposition
"New Labour" suddenly announced they have 200 MPs, leaving Old Labour with the unions...
But "New" would have no money and no members.0 -
Social conservative means to be resistant to change, or at least the pace of change, in social issues such as marriage, drugs etc IMHO. I don't think you necessarily have to be a social conservative to be against immigration on the current scale - you might just be worried about jobs, school places etc.Lennon said:
I normally think of as the opposite of 'socially liberal' - so (slightly stereotypically) anti gay marriage, pro capital punishment, pro harsh on drugs etc.foxinsoxuk said:
Does "socially conservative" in the Cruddas piece mean anything other than anti-immigration? What else do people mean by it?oxfordsimon said:
Isn't this a set of questions that he should have asked a month ago? Votes are already being registered. It is too late to really engage with the debate. There will be an urgency to vote quickly - particularly from the enthusiastic new supporters. The time for policy/process discussion is fast running out.Disraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
snip
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.0 -
Saw this earlier - some pointed stuff http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/sebastian-payne/2015/08/eric-pickles-interview-multiculturalism-is-to-blame-for-tower-hamlets-electoral-fraud/
His main target is the Electoral Commission, the body responsible for overseeing elections. Pickles says he is ‘immensely disappointed’ with the commission, so does he think it should be scrapped?
‘I think we should look at its function. I have a very careful idea as to whether it’s necessary [to disband it] and I am personally announcing there is going to be a review,’ he says. ‘I am going to call for evidence, we are going to look at its long term future but we are also looking at a number of specific issues with regard to electoral registration, with regard to the conduct of polls. We are going to look to ensure that when you get a postal vote there is a reasonable certainty that you are the person who that postal vote is going to’.
At the outset, why did the Electoral Commission not investigate Tower Hamlets and electoral fraud generally? ‘I think has been too obsessed with voter registration and increasing the number of people at the polls regardless of the quality’.0 -
Indeed so.Disraeli said:
Good point. Tory Prime Ministers have done that before. Remember when Tory PM Tony Blair was adamant in the 2005 General Election that he would serve the full term as PM, then handed over to Gordon in 2007?justin124 said:If Cameron stayed he would be accused of having lied in 2015.
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The public really wouldn't care if David Cameron changed his mind if they continued to think he was doing a good job. That isn't the obstacle at all.
Conservative MPs and Samantha Cameron are far bigger obstacles.0 -
Seems to me that when the party comes out of this mess (and that could five years or more away) the union link will be the focus of a final showdown.MarqueeMark said:
On the plus side - none of the debts....MarkHopkins said:Scott_P said:
That's what I was talking about on the previous thread.justin124 said:Any chance of the PLP deciding to appoint its own leader? I am not sure whether this would require simply a change in Standing Orders or effectively outright UDI but it might appeal to circa 200 members of the PLP who would continue to provide the Leader of the Opposition
"New Labour" suddenly announced they have 200 MPs, leaving Old Labour with the unions...
But "New" would have no money and no members.0 -
If I were UKIP, I'd be looking at securing some MP defections under Corbyn (no rush) and a couple of by-election victories.MikeK said:UKIP not doing well in the locals, but hoping to get a foot in the door.
That way, all those second places would start looking like a success rather than a failure.0 -
The MPs need a new leader soonish. All parties need a fresh start every decade or so involving new blood.antifrank said:The public really wouldn't care if David Cameron changed his mind if they continued to think he was doing a good job. That isn't the obstacle at all.
Conservative MPs and Samantha Cameron are far bigger obstacles.0 -
The comments under the Cruddas article are predictable. http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
- Have you resigned yet
- You're a Blairite/incestuous cabal
- Daily Mail job application
- Confirmation bias [??]
- Corbyn is GRRREAT!0 -
FPT Parodies of the Red Flag. There have been "pink flag" parodies since the 1930s, apparently.
I quite like:
Three letters. P. P. E.
The people's flag is palest pink
It's not the colour you might think
White collar workers stand and cheer
The Labour government is here
We'll change the country bit by bit
So nobody will notice it
And just to show that we're sincere
We'll sing The Red Flag once a year
The cloth cap and the woolen scarf
Are images outdated
For we're the party's avant garde
And we are educated
So raise the rolled umbrella high
The college scarf, the old school tie
And just to show that we're sincere
We'll sing The Red Flag once a year
Followed by an Oxon.
I also quite like various historic versions,
Or more recently,
The workers' flag is palest pink
Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink
Now Harold's done the same as Hugh
The workers' flag is brightest blue.
The latter could by the Corbynista anthem.
New Labour's flag is palest pink
It's not as red as you might think
And Tony's added shades of blue
He does not care for me and you
There's a pretty well-known American parody called "The Foreman's Job" which I've always thought was quite funny, but also goes a long way to explaining why Americans don't "do" socialism, or at least not by that word. No idea where I first heard it but it must have been around for a while.
(There is also an alternative version I'd not heard of before, replacing "the system.." line with "The working class can kiss my ass "You can tell old Joe I'm off the dole, He can stick the Red Flag up his 'ole" - but presumably that's an older - 40s? 50s? - version.)
The working class can kiss my ass
I've got the foreman's job at last
The system I'll no more resist
I'm going to be a capitalist
Now you can raise the standard high
Beneath its shade to fight and die
But brother, please don't count on me
I've up and joined the bourgeoisie
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On that definition Jezza looks socially conservative. His ideas and outlook have not changed for decades!rottenborough said:
Social conservative means to be resistant to change, or at least the pace of change, in social issues such as marriage, drugs etc IMHO. I don't think you necessarily have to be a social conservative to be against immigration on the current scale - you might just be worried about jobs, school places etc.Lennon said:
I normally think of as the opposite of 'socially liberal' - so (slightly stereotypically) anti gay marriage, pro capital punishment, pro harsh on drugs etc.foxinsoxuk said:
Does "socially conservative" in the Cruddas piece mean anything other than anti-immigration? What else do people mean by it?oxfordsimon said:
Isn't this a set of questions that he should have asked a month ago? Votes are already being registered. It is too late to really engage with the debate. There will be an urgency to vote quickly - particularly from the enthusiastic new supporters. The time for policy/process discussion is fast running out.Disraeli said:John Cruddas has sent a letter to each of the Labour Leadership candidates, with five key questions:
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
snip
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.0 -
Cameron would be accused of lying if he stuck around, but that would only really be a problem if his polling made him sticking around look vulnerable, in which case he'd probably not risk it anyway - I doubt people in general would mind him deciding to stay on if they were indicating they still liked him better than the alternatives. It's the internal tory opponents who'd kick up a fuss about lying.0
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Cameron will not fight the 2020 election. He may, however, fight a 2018 one.0
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In the case of the Conservatives, ritually spilt on a stone slab at a full moon.foxinsoxuk said:
The MPs need a new leader soonish. All parties need a fresh start every decade or so involving new blood.antifrank said:The public really wouldn't care if David Cameron changed his mind if they continued to think he was doing a good job. That isn't the obstacle at all.
Conservative MPs and Samantha Cameron are far bigger obstacles.0 -
There's also the consequences that flow from any new legislation re political levies from union members.
That seems likely to reduce the monies available to Labour.rottenborough said:
Seems to me that when the party comes out of this mess (and that could five years or more away) the union link will be the focus of a final showdown.MarqueeMark said:
On the plus side - none of the debts....MarkHopkins said:Scott_P said:
That's what I was talking about on the previous thread.justin124 said:Any chance of the PLP deciding to appoint its own leader? I am not sure whether this would require simply a change in Standing Orders or effectively outright UDI but it might appeal to circa 200 members of the PLP who would continue to provide the Leader of the Opposition
"New Labour" suddenly announced they have 200 MPs, leaving Old Labour with the unions...
But "New" would have no money and no members.0 -
Sky: "Janner appeared to giggle as he entered court"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11802502/Lord-Janner-in-court-LIVE.html0 -
In Scotland around 4% of children are privately educated, compared to 7% for the UK as a whole. The Sutton Trust has produced research for the H of C:ydoethur said:TGOHF said:
- a demographically diverse group of MPs
Not a single English or Welsh MP representing the SNP - not diverse at all.
With regard to education, that probably reflects as much as anything else the comparatively small size of the private sector in Scottish education, plus the tuition fees imbalance that rewards (or at any rate, for many years rewarded - not sure if it's still in place) Scottish students for going to Scottish universities, rather than ones in England.
http://www.suttontrust.com/researcharchive/parliamentary-privilege-the-mps-2015/
Summary
•Almost a third (32%) of MPs in the new House of Commons was privately educated. This means that the new House is only a little more representative than that elected in 2010, when 35% of MPs had been to a fee-paying school.
• The research brief, Parliamentary Privilege – the MPs, shows that around half (48%) of Conservative MPs were privately educated, compared to 14% of Liberal Democrats, 5% of SNP MPs for whom we have data and 17% of Labour MPs. Among other MPs, 24% went to a fee-paying school. However, the proportion of privately educated Conservative MPs has fallen from 54% in the last parliament and 73% in 1979.
•With only 7% of the general population attending independent schools, MPs are over four times more likely to have gone to a fee-paying school than their constituents. Out of those MPs who were privately educated, almost one in ten went to Eton.
•The research draws on data compiled by the Sutton Trust and public affairs consultant Tim Carr from public sources, requests to candidates in marginal constituencies and those in seats where the previous MP was not standing again.
•Nine out of ten MPs are graduates. Of those who went to a UK university, 26% hold an Oxbridge degree and 28% went to another Russell Group university. Whilst the public might expect MPs to have good degrees, previous research by the Trust found that those from the richest fifth of neighbourhoods are still nine times more likely to go to the top universities than those from the poorest fifth.
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Labour going backwards in all last night's BEs.0
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Hmmm...Not a bad suggestion. Any idea where we might find such a slab?antifrank said:
In the case of the Conservatives, ritually spilt on a stone slab at a full moon.foxinsoxuk said:
The MPs need a new leader soonish. All parties need a fresh start every decade or so involving new blood.antifrank said:The public really wouldn't care if David Cameron changed his mind if they continued to think he was doing a good job. That isn't the obstacle at all.
Conservative MPs and Samantha Cameron are far bigger obstacles.0 -
Corbyn is going to struggle to have the support of more than about 15% of Labour MPs. It's difficult to see how this is going to work in Parliament.0
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He doesn't believe in whipping - so he probably doesn't care.AndyJS said:Corbyn is going to struggle to have the support of more than about 15% of Labour MPs. It's difficult to see how this is going to work in Parliament.
He will potentially have a huge mandate from the membership - as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected), he can drive the party in the direction he wants to take irrespective of what the MPs want.
Will certainly make key votes interesting to watch...0 -
He wants to change thatoxfordsimon said:as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected)
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I wonder if he'll start believing in whipping if Tory start to become less effective due to split votes on the Labour side?oxfordsimon said:
He doesn't believe in whipping - so he probably doesn't care.AndyJS said:Corbyn is going to struggle to have the support of more than about 15% of Labour MPs. It's difficult to see how this is going to work in Parliament.
He will potentially have a huge mandate from the membership - as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected), he can drive the party in the direction he wants to take irrespective of what the MPs want.
Will certainly make key votes interesting to watch...
The effect of a less rigid approach by Labour will be more government victories in parliament.0 -
Corbyn appeals for party unity after September 12th...0
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Once Labour have a new leader, Cameron will be only the second party leader since the modern model of party leadership became established in the 1920s, to have faced four permanent leaders of both other main parties. Baldwin is the other.rottenborough said:Is Cameron our Stanley Baldwin?
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http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/08/14/tory-mayor-wannabe-warns-of-jeremy-corbyn-capturing-the-zeitgeist/
'Tory MP Zac Goldsmith, frontrunner in the group seeking the Conservative London mayoral nomination, has warned the “glee” of his party colleagues at the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour Party leader is “totally misplaced”. He said Corbyn could somehow capture the “zeitgeist” and ride the wave of support that confounded his critics, leading Britain into “very dangerous terrain”.'0 -
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Cameron should push for an inclusive, softer Conservative Party to paint a harsh, Stalinist Labour Party, keen to denounce whatever traitor this week.
That caricature won't be true, of course, but it has enough truth to it.0 -
Three letters. P. P. E.MyBurningEars said:FPT Parodies of the Red Flag. There have been "pink flag" parodies since the 1930s, apparently.
I quite like:
The people's flag is palest pink
It's not the colour you might think
White collar workers stand and cheer
The Labour government is here
We'll change the country bit by bit
So nobody will notice it
And just to show that we're sincere
We'll sing The Red Flag once a year
The cloth cap and the woolen scarf
Are images outdated
For we're the party's avant garde
And we are educated
So raise the rolled umbrella high
The college scarf, the old school tie
And just to show that we're sincere
We'll sing The Red Flag once a year
Followed by an Oxon.
I also quite like various historic versions,
Or more recently,
The workers' flag is palest pink
Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink
Now Harold's done the same as Hugh
The workers' flag is brightest blue.
The latter could by the Corbynista anthem.
New Labour's flag is palest pink
It's not as red as you might think
And Tony's added shades of blue
He does not care for me and you
There's a pretty well-known American parody called "The Foreman's Job" which I've always thought was quite funny, but also goes a long way to explaining why Americans don't "do" socialism, or at least not by that word. No idea where I first heard it but it must have been around for a while.
(There is also an alternative version I'd not heard of before, replacing "the system.." line with "The working class can kiss my ass "You can tell old Joe I'm off the dole, He can stick the Red Flag up his 'ole" - but presumably that's an older - 40s? 50s? - version.)
The working class can kiss my ass
I've got the foreman's job at last
The system I'll no more resist
I'm going to be a capitalist
Now you can raise the standard high
Beneath its shade to fight and die
But brother, please don't count on me
I've up and joined the bourgeoisie
There is also this version, courtesy of The Liberator Songbook, sometimes sung at the Lib Dem Glee Club:
The people's flag is slightly pink
It's not as red as most folk think
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago.
Chorus:
Don't let the scarlet banner float
We want the middle classes vote
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer
We'll stay in power for many a year.
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Elected by Labour's members?Scott_P said:
He wants to change thatoxfordsimon said:as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected)
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It seems such a shame to speculate on the Tory succession when there is so much fun to be had watching the contortions of Labour - I deliberately omit "party" since that has connotations of togetherness. The pleasure in this is not exclusively for Tories; imagine how much fun Len is having. With all this new technology both the puppeteer and the strings can be made scarcely visible.0
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Economic vandalism and failed leftist fuckwittery is not the zeitgeist, Zac. Let's see how far, eg Royal Mail renationalisation goes, when all the posties have to scrub the value of the shares they were given at the sell-off. There'll be plenty of shoe-gazing and mumbling of "can't we do the Gas Board first?"RodCrosby said:http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/08/14/tory-mayor-wannabe-warns-of-jeremy-corbyn-capturing-the-zeitgeist/
'Tory MP Zac Goldsmith, frontrunner in the group seeking the Conservative London mayoral nomination, has warned the “glee” of his party colleagues at the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour Party leader is “totally misplaced”. He said Corbyn could somehow capture the “zeitgeist” and ride the wave of support that confounded his critics, leading Britain into “very dangerous terrain”.'0 -
I believe Corbyn has mooted a return to PLP elections to ShadCab.Plato said:Elected by Labour's members?
Scott_P said:
He wants to change thatoxfordsimon said:as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected)
Edit: Link http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/coups-splits-or-surprising-calm-what-jeremy-corbyn-era-would-look-labour0 -
Pub brawl seems to be more appropriate.
TBH, I'm not the teeniest bit interested in speculating about who'll take over from Cameron in 3+yrs.ReggieCide said:It seems such a shame to speculate on the Tory succession when there is so much fun to be had watching the contortions of Labour - I deliberately omit "party" since that has connotations of togetherness. The pleasure in this is not exclusively for Tories; imagine how much fun Len is having. With all this new technology both the puppeteer and the strings can be made scarcely visible.
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So all his mates electing his mates then?
Ho hum.
Interesting view on coup or not in that articleCorbyn would remain secure until a credible “stop Jeremy” candidate emerged – perhaps Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves or Dan Jarvis.
Tom Watson, who is the overwhelming favourite to emerge as deputy leader, would also be a stabilising presence. Corbyn’s inner circle is confident that, far from plotting to bring him down, Watson will bolster the Islington North MP.
In the back room, Corbyn’s office would be far from the amateurish dysfunction that often characterised the Miliband project. Simon Fletcher, Corbyn’s campaign supremo and Ken Livingstone’s old chief of staff, is widely expected to stay on in the event of a victory. Continuity at the top would avoid a repeat of the chaotic early years of Miliband’s leadership. He went two years without a permanent chief of staff before appointing the unworldly Tim Livesey, a former adviser to the archbishop of Canterbury. Unlike Livesey – who once asked a dumbstruck special adviser who the Sky News anchor Adam Boulton was – Fletcher is an experienced and effective but genial presence at the heart of Project Corbyn.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I believe Corbyn has mooted a return to PLP elections to ShadCab.Plato said:Elected by Labour's members?
Scott_P said:
He wants to change thatoxfordsimon said:as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected)
Edit: Link http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/coups-splits-or-surprising-calm-what-jeremy-corbyn-era-would-look-labour0 -
Au contraire.Plato said:So all his mates electing his mates then?
Ho hum.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I believe Corbyn has mooted a return to PLP elections to ShadCab.Plato said:Elected by Labour's members?
Scott_P said:
He wants to change thatoxfordsimon said:as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected)
Edit: Link http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/coups-splits-or-surprising-calm-what-jeremy-corbyn-era-would-look-labour
It is the only system guaranteed to lead to those on the right of the party being part of the ShadCab.
Whether that's "keep your enemies closer"/"pissing out the tent" or "stab in the back" territory might depend on the polls...0 -
For those that missed it at the time (such as myself) - this is a very thoughtful piece on the issues that Labour has around immigration. http://elxn-data.blogspot.fr/2015/08/labour-and-immigration.html0
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I saw this article and thought of you:Scott_P said:
He has called for a return to elections. I don't know who the electorate arePlato said:Elected by Labour's members?
http://www.thenational.scot/comment/gordon-macintyre-kemp-would-scotland-now-be-independent-if-we-hadnt-had-oil.63440 -
Cameron is no Margaret Thatcher. After 15 years as Tory leader and 10 years as PM, he will move on.
He himself has said he doesn't enjoy the job, but it's a huge privilege and honour.0 -
He would first co-opt all the £3 members to be full time. Can Labour afford all the votes that Corbyn wants?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I believe Corbyn has mooted a return to PLP elections to ShadCab.Plato said:Elected by Labour's members?
Scott_P said:
He wants to change thatoxfordsimon said:as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected)
Edit: Link http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/coups-splits-or-surprising-calm-what-jeremy-corbyn-era-would-look-labour0 -
I don't understand this stuff about "how will Corbyn control his MPs?" That might be relevant if Labour were in government, and moderates were being asked to vote on very left-wing bills, but in Opposition it's a binary choice between accepting right-wing Tory legislation or not, which moderates won't have a problem with.
(And in any case, the grassroots will have something to say if rebel Labour MPs start making the difference between govt wins and defeats in Parliament.)0 -
The LDs must be pretty pleased as well.ReggieCide said:It seems such a shame to speculate on the Tory succession when there is so much fun to be had watching the contortions of Labour - I deliberately omit "party" since that has connotations of togetherness. The pleasure in this is not exclusively for Tories; imagine how much fun Len is having. With all this new technology both the puppeteer and the strings can be made scarcely visible.
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To exploit a small Tory majority, Labour will need to ensure as close to 100% opposition turnout as possible on votes. That is harder if you do not enjoy the natural support of the people you're asking to turn up.Danny565 said:I don't understand this stuff about "how will Corbyn control his MPs?" That might be relevant if Labour were in government, and moderates were being asked to vote on very left-wing bills, but in Opposition it's a binary choice between accepting right-wing Tory legislation or not, which moderates won't have a problem with.
(And in any case, the grassroots will have something to say if rebel Labour MPs start making the difference between govt wins and defeats in Parliament.)
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I think Cameron will be seeking a return to PR land and will be looking to follow in Tony Blair's steps and become a PR guru to world leaders and conglomerates. I'd expect that he'd resign with 6 - 12 months to go, that's assuming he isn't forced out after the EU ref, which would give him plenty time to get his business up and running and good to go in 2021.0
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I saw this link to it, and thought of you...calum said:I saw this article and thought of you:
@kevverage: UK-wide pooling & sharing is demonstrably helping Scotland ... and this reinforces case for indy?
Man's an idiot. https://t.co/gEUsUU0O4p0 -
Ever wondered how the Eastern Europeans manage to undercut british tradesmen?
I guess this will become commonplace for brits to so they can compete. Good old mass immigration, a benefit for us all
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/6321894477827031050 -
Depending what the job is, I send belated congrats.Floater said:
congratulationsTheWhiteRabbit said:Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.
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Thanks all, you can get back to Corbyn now!MikeK said:
Depending what the job is, I send belated congrats.Floater said:
congratulationsTheWhiteRabbit said:Some good news: I now have a job.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.
Yes, it's the sort of job I was looking for, as an interim position.0
