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Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!stodge said:
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.Speedy said:2016 update, apart from Sanders overtaking Hillary in N.H., we have the first state-poll with Trump beating Hillary:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48%
Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%0 -
Once of the most important ways that the establishment maintain the status quo is by keeping topics off the agenda.Plato said:Piffle.
Which part of terrorist supporting, NATO leaving, anti Queen, pro immigration, anti-Semite loving Labour leader would you think will unfoot anyone?
The Monarchy should be on the agenda, it should have been on the agenda years ago. But it has always been kept off it. If Corbyn sparks the debate, then he will have done one good thing in his life.0 -
Price on Corbyn coming in now... at 1.420
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Great news.Plato said:Just for you
Number of stay-at-home mothers falling by 12,000 a MONTH as growing number of fathers opt to look after the children
Number of women looking after their home falls by 35,000 in three months
At the same time there are now record levels of women in employment
Official figures show stay-at-home fathers is rising by 4,000 a month
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3195394/Number-stay-home-mothers-falling-12-000-MONTH-growing-number-fathers-opt-look-children.html#ixzz3ics4GlM9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
depends on your establishment, who's discussing oil prices in ScotlandDair said:
Once of the most important ways that the establishment maintain the status quo is by keeping topics off the agenda.Plato said:Piffle.
Which part of terrorist supporting, NATO leaving, anti Queen, pro immigration, anti-Semite loving Labour leader would you think will unfoot anyone?
The Monarchy should be on the agenda, it should have been on the agenda years ago. But it has always been kept off it. If Corbyn sparks the debate, then he will have done one good thing in his life.0 -
Only against the Tories, but against the Lib Dems, Labour could lose quite a few of the gains they had against them this year. I would also add Enfield North to your lost of Lab losses to Con.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I also think UKIP could do well against an ultra-leftist Labour party, appealing to Mondeo Man.0 -
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.0 -
Bloody hell. With an explosion that large and powerful (the shock wave seems to knock people off their feet well over 1km away) I find it very hard to believe there are not significant fatalities.notme said:
OMG, WTF!!!glw said:It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
You could feel the impact! Mentally counting down for the sound and blast to hit, seconds after the light.
The closest thing it reminds me of is an atomic blast.0 -
Ironically, yougov now has Corbyn as more electable than Blair. While 11% of voters would be more likely to back a Blair led Labour Party, 32% would be less likely. 12% would be more likely to back a Corbyn led Labour Party, 14% less likely. (Though David Miliband does better than both, were he running 19% would be more likely to vote Labour, 13% less likely)watford30 said:
'Apparently he can annihilate the Labour Party in just 45 minutes. Alastair Campbell is writing a dossier about it.'antifrank said:The comments under Tony Blair's article are predictable:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/12/even-if-hate-me-dont-take-labour-over-cliff-edge-tony-blair
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf0 -
Throw in a boundary change and it looks worseAndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
]0 -
You are quite right. Corbyn is running rings round the other 3, making them look amateurs.Speedy said:On Topic:
If the SDP hadn't formed then David Owen would had become Labour leader after Foot instead of Kinnock.
Out of topic:
The 3 "losers" writing a joint letter to protest that's unfair for them that voters are not voting for them is a sure way to convince people that yep from those 4 only Corbyn is the most capable and decent enough to do the job.
It certainly has convinced me, once I felt gravitating towards Cooper but over the past month I felt more and more convinced that those 3 are all crap, and Corbyn is the only one that has put any effort at winning people over, that letter is the final draw.
Instead of getting out there trying to convince people to vote for them they moan why no one is voting for them.
Kendall, Cooper and Burnham are officially too crap to be leader of the Labour party any time any place.
Still not 100% sure, but he will probably get my vote, feck the consequences. By the way i have been a labour member for more years than i care remember.0 -
Pity the victims.
I recall hearing a lecture by Margaret Mead in the 60s to the effect that public surveillance was coming and that it might not be a bad thing. As you might expect, that was prescient.
Nowadays it seems that just about any event will be recorded by somebody(ies). For instance the spectacular meteor that came in over Russia recently.0 -
Yes. My thinking is gain +5 MPs in Scotland. Lose - 30 MPs in E&W to the Tories. Lose perhaps 2-3 to the LDs. +1 for Brighton Pavilion. Maybe lose 2-4 to UKIP.AndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
That gets him to around 201 MPs. I think in the core cities and left-wing sink holes (Cambridge, Brighton, London, Exeter, Liverpool and Manchester) he'd significantly up the Labour majorities.
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Humblebrag time once again.HYUFD said:
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!stodge said:
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.Speedy said:2016 update, apart from Sanders overtaking Hillary in N.H., we have the first state-poll with Trump beating Hillary:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48%
Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
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Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s0
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Also, why are Militant/Trotskyite/Maoist "entryists" being bracketed with Tory infilitrators? The former would, presumably, actually vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party at a GE, so they're acting entirely in the spirit of the contest. They aren't remotely equivalent to those who are trying to sabotage the process because they want Labour to lose.Financier said:RE: Labour weeding out votes even after they have been cast - I am not sure if the £3 has been accepted that they are not breaking a legal contract. I do not have the rules and regs but it seems that they are disqualifying people who are a member of another political party but is that illegal?
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Labour doing badly at the next election doesn't mean the Tories will necessarily have a brilliant night. They could easily lose a few votes as Thatcher did in 1983 vs Foot.0
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Huge numbers of last day sign ups on Labour's website and the unions are going to deliver scads of votes for Corbyn. Even if he decided to pull out of the race, Burnham would become the favourite as the most lefty of those who would remain.rottenborough said:Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
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Mr. Mouse, nothing wrong with bragging if you show great insight, such as Mr. Smithson on Obama, Mr. Calum on Labour losses in Scotland, whoever first mooted backing Corbyn or, dare I say it, the handsome young morris dancer who tipped Jenson Button at 70/1 for the 2009 Drivers' title before the season even started.0
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Nice thread title.
Reminds me of Luttwak's strategy book, "Coup d'État: A practical handbook".0 -
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.rottenborough said:Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/6315199511411179520 -
If i was there witnessing that in person, I would be thinking the 'end of the world'!!Casino_Royale said:
Bloody hell. With an explosion that large and powerful (the shock wave seems to knock people off their feet well over 1km away) I find it very hard to believe there are not significant fatalities.notme said:
OMG, WTF!!!glw said:It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
You could feel the impact! Mentally counting down for the sound and blast to hit, seconds after the light.
The closest thing it reminds me of is an atomic blast.
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Labour are defending about ~50 seats which have majority of 5000 or less.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. My thinking is gain +5 MPs in Scotland. Lose - 30 MPs in E&W to the Tories. Lose perhaps 2-3 to the LDs. +1 for Brighton Pavilion. Maybe lose 2-4 to UKIP.AndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
That gets him to around 201 MPs. I think in the core cities and left-wing sink holes (Cambridge, Brighton, London, Exeter, Liverpool and Manchester) he'd significantly up the Labour majorities.0 -
Yes, I know. But not all of them are vulnerable to the Conservatives under Corbyn.Financier said:
Labour are defending about ~50 seats which have majority of 5000 or less.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. My thinking is gain +5 MPs in Scotland. Lose - 30 MPs in E&W to the Tories. Lose perhaps 2-3 to the LDs. +1 for Brighton Pavilion. Maybe lose 2-4 to UKIP.AndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
That gets him to around 201 MPs. I think in the core cities and left-wing sink holes (Cambridge, Brighton, London, Exeter, Liverpool and Manchester) he'd significantly up the Labour majorities.0 -
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the ToriesAndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.0 -
I remember Hemel Hempstead. I was living maybe 40 miles away in a thatched cottage, with wire over the thatch. When it exploded, the blast wave was like people running over the wire on the roof. Extraordinary.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Jones, that's a serious explosion.
Only thing that springs to mind would be Hemel Hempstead one we had here. Almost miraculous nobody was killed in that.0 -
In the past 24 hours the unions found 97,000 more Labour party supporters.
This just gets funnier and funnier.0 -
That's interesting thanks. I am, of course, the trendsetter. One couple, who had their first child at the same time as ours, have decided that she is going back to work whilst he chucks in the job to look after their little 'un. And my example was, apparently, pivotal. (*)Plato said:Just for you
Number of stay-at-home mothers falling by 12,000 a MONTH as growing number of fathers opt to look after the children
Number of women looking after their home falls by 35,000 in three months
At the same time there are now record levels of women in employment
Official figures show stay-at-home fathers is rising by 4,000 a month
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3195394/Number-stay-home-mothers-falling-12-000-MONTH-growing-number-fathers-opt-look-children.html#ixzz3ics4GlM9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
And not only that, but I'm also a hero: valiantly looking after a toddler whilst suffering from a fractured elbow!
All hails Jessop!
Or something.
(*) Strangely, whilst she is happy to be going back to work, he has not thanked me for it ...0 -
That's the "once again" - I reckon I was also the first to seriously recommend backing Corbyn, back on 6 JuneMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Mouse, nothing wrong with bragging if you show great insight, such as Mr. Smithson on Obama, Mr. Calum on Labour losses in Scotland, whoever first mooted backing Corbyn or, dare I say it, the handsome young morris dancer who tipped Jenson Button at 70/1 for the 2009 Drivers' title before the season even started.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/699401/#Comment_699401
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Attracted away by the new SDP.AndyJS said:Labour doing badly at the next election doesn't mean the Tories will necessarily have a brilliant night. They could easily lose a few votes as Thatcher did in 1983 vs Foot.
Who is the new party that were not standing in 2010?
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Tony Blair's article shows that, whatever you think of him, he has an outstanding grasp of politics.0
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How did I miss those internals.HYUFD said:
Ironically, yougov now has Corbyn as more electable than Blair. While 11% of voters would be more likely to back a Blair led Labour Party, 32% would be less likely. 12% would be more likely to back a Corbyn led Labour Party, 14% less likely. (Though David Miliband does better than both, were he running 19% would be more likely to vote Labour, 13% less likely)watford30 said:
'Apparently he can annihilate the Labour Party in just 45 minutes. Alastair Campbell is writing a dossier about it.'antifrank said:The comments under Tony Blair's article are predictable:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/12/even-if-hate-me-dont-take-labour-over-cliff-edge-tony-blair
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf
They are absolutely awful for Labour.
Only 17% have a more positive or already had a positive view view of Labour after the election, including 50% of Labour voters.
68% have a more negative or already had a negative view, including 41% of Labour voters, in the over 60's that's 80%.
That explains in part why there is a massive wave for Corbyn, even Labour voters have much more of a negative view of their party, a vote for Corbyn is also seen as a vote of no confidence to the Labour leadership.
Also compared to the other 3 he seems to be as good as Andy Burnham in repelling voters. Corbyn is at -2 same as Burnham but better that Kendall at -3 and Cooper at -6 (the composition is also a nice look with Kendall getting some Tory votes but losing massive amounts of Labour votes).0 -
0
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Karl Marx. "I have got my party back".0
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BBC report's been updated, 50 in hospital it seems. That seems a low number.0
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The injury/death toll is going to go into thousands, if not tens of thousands.AndyJS said:Report on the explosion in China:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-338962920 -
Oh for God's sake. NEC - call a halt.AndyJS said:
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.rottenborough said:Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/6315199511411179520 -
The Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
[ "All power to Jeremy Corbyn's campaign!" ]
http://www.rcpbml.org.uk/wwie-15/ww15-23.htm#lead
is slightly more enthusiastic about Jeremy Corbyn than
the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
[ "Labour's great white elephant" ]
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=proletarian&subName=display&art=11320 -
That reminds me of the kind of stuff John McCain was putting out in the closing months of the 2008 election.Chris123 said:This recent picture from Andy Burnham's FB campaign website says it all really:
"The Rover is over over" as my ex-colleague in SA once said.0 -
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then toohandandmouse said:
Humblebrag time once again.HYUFD said:
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!stodge said:
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.Speedy said:2016 update, apart from Sanders overtaking Hillary in N.H., we have the first state-poll with Trump beating Hillary:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48%
Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President0 -
That explosion was phenomenal unless it was miles away from built up areas (which it obviously isnt), the death toll is going to be big. There'll be people within a lethal blast range, in which there will be no remains.Morris_Dancer said:BBC report's been updated, 50 in hospital it seems. That seems a low number.
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Legal action now threatened...rottenborough said:
Oh for God's sake. NEC - call a halt.AndyJS said:
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.rottenborough said:Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/631519951141117952
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/597895/Labour-Party-leadership-contest-MPs-warn-legal-challenge0 -
Mr. Crosby, we appear to be at the stage where the Labour Party is incapable of running the Labour Party.
Bloody hell. We do actually need an opposition to keep the government on its toes.0 -
It won't wash. Entryism is a tiny part of the Corbyn phenomenon and won't affect the result:RodCrosby said:
Legal action now threatened...rottenborough said:
Oh for God's sake. NEC - call a halt.AndyJS said:
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.rottenborough said:Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/631519951141117952
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/597895/Labour-Party-leadership-contest-MPs-warn-legal-challenge
http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/entrism-small-part-jeremy-corbyns-rise/50500 -
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89JohnLoony said:The Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
[ "All power to Jeremy Corbyn's campaign!" ]
http://www.rcpbml.org.uk/wwie-15/ww15-23.htm#lead
is slightly more enthusiastic about Jeremy Corbyn than
the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
[ "Labour's great white elephant" ]
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=proletarian&subName=display&art=11320 -
A delayed response to the financial crisis?HYUFD said:
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then toohandandmouse said:
Humblebrag time once again.HYUFD said:
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!stodge said:
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.Speedy said:2016 update, apart from Sanders overtaking Hillary in N.H., we have the first state-poll with Trump beating Hillary:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48%
Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
In the US, the bloviators on the right have spent so long yelling "SOCIALIST!" at Obama - when he's clearly nothing of the sort - that when an actual socialist comes along they've nothing left.
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Scottish Labour candidate axed hours before a by-election
http://www.sconews.co.uk/news/46528/labour-candidate-loses-party-support-over-accusations-of-anti-catholic-social-media-posts/0 -
Will Corbyn rename the Labour Party, a la Blair?
Here are some possible names:
Old Labour Revived
Working Labour
Militant Labour
Real Labour
Socialist Labour
Or will it be National Socialist Labour Party???
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Jezza will mop up the UKIP vote with messages like this on immigration:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saOGTZpVHhI0 -
It is likely a condition of the contract that the applicant is a supporter of the aims and values of the Labour Party. If so, the Labour Party has the right to terminate the contract and keep the £3 which was payable before termination if the applicant is not a supporter. Alternatively, if the applicant lies in response to a question asked before the contract was formed, the contract will be voidable for fraudulent misrepresentation. The Labour Party could not technically keep the £3, but it could set it off against all its losses which accrued as a result of entering into contract, whether foreseeable or not.Financier said:RE: Labour weeding out votes even after they have been cast - I am not sure if the £3 has been accepted that they are not breaking a legal contract. I do not have the rules and regs but it seems that they are disqualifying people who are a member of another political party but is that illegal?
More interesting is whether there is a provision in the rules requiring the party to vet supporters for their views. If there is, and the party cannot or will not do so, one of the candidates could seek injunctive relief.0 -
That is a pamphlet arguing very successfully for Labour voters to vote Corbyn as their leader, if the present lot do not want people to vote for their own leader then they deserve to have Corbyn voted as their leader.RodCrosby said:
Legal action now threatened...rottenborough said:
Oh for God's sake. NEC - call a halt.AndyJS said:
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.rottenborough said:Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/631519951141117952
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/597895/Labour-Party-leadership-contest-MPs-warn-legal-challenge
They have successfully made me a very angry voter with their antics today, 3 hours ago I decided to finally dump Cooper for Corbyn because I felt that Corbyn deserved it more, now I'm voting Corbyn to kick those ungrateful pests of Labour MP's like Graham Stringer, Barry Sheerman, John Mann and Simon Danczuk up their arse.
GRRRRRRRRRR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Raf5JdFecPQ0 -
@handandmouse Multiple LOLs. You'll have earned your bragging rights if the Weekend at Bernie's lasts that long. A very big if. Hillary is very nearly done and cooked now, which will open the door to multiple new entrants.handandmouse said:
A delayed response to the financial crisis?HYUFD said:
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then toohandandmouse said:
Humblebrag time once again.HYUFD said:
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!stodge said:
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.Speedy said:2016 update, apart from Sanders overtaking Hillary in N.H., we have the first state-poll with Trump beating Hillary:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48%
Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
In the US, the bloviators on the right have spent so long yelling "SOCIALIST!" at Obama - when he's clearly nothing of the sort - that when an actual socialist comes along they've nothing left.
As for the bloviators on the right, they have no need to waste any breath on Bernie. If, by some miracle, he gets the Dem nod, then the war machine will train everything its got on him. But why use up ammo when you don't have to?0 -
If the GOP pick Trump Sanders could yet be presidenthandandmouse said:
A delayed response to the financial crisis?HYUFD said:
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then toohandandmouse said:
Humblebrag time once again.HYUFD said:
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!stodge said:
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.Speedy said:2016 update, apart from Sanders overtaking Hillary in N.H., we have the first state-poll with Trump beating Hillary:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48%
Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
In the US, the bloviators on the right have spent so long yelling "SOCIALIST!" at Obama - when he's clearly nothing of the sort - that when an actual socialist comes along they've nothing left.0 -
What is the bookies position if the leadership contest is postponed/called off? The odds on Corbyn seem overly generous.0
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I never knew headless chickens could talk until now.Speedy said:
That is a pamphlet arguing very successfully for Labour voters to vote Corbyn as their leader, if the present lot do not want people to vote for their own leader then they deserve to have Corbyn voted as their leader.RodCrosby said:
Legal action now threatened...rottenborough said:
Oh for God's sake. NEC - call a halt.AndyJS said:
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.rottenborough said:Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/631519951141117952
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/597895/Labour-Party-leadership-contest-MPs-warn-legal-challenge
They have successfully made me a very angry voter with their antics today, 3 hours ago I decided to finally dump Cooper for Corbyn because I felt that Corbyn deserved it more, now I'm voting Corbyn to kick those ungrateful pests of Labour MP's like Graham Stringer, Barry Sheerman, John Mann and Simon Danczuk up their arse.
GRRRRRRRRRR.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Raf5JdFecPQ0 -
Hahahahahaha.HYUFD said:
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the ToriesAndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
You're delusional state is actually getting worse.0 -
Absolutely. There is literally zero reason to abandon the SNP for Corbyn as you couldn't put a fagpaper between them so may as well vote for the incumbent.Dair said:
Hahahahahaha.HYUFD said:
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the ToriesAndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
You're delusional state is actually getting worse.0 -
They would surely have to void the market?MP_SE said:What is the bookies position if the leadership contest is postponed/called off? The odds on Corbyn seem overly generous.
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Just imagine in a parellel universe where Cameron has struck a small majority government in 2010, the Liberal Democrats (who would never have entered Downing Street) by now could be Her Majesty's Opposition either after a successful 2015 campaign or after 2020.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Crosby, we appear to be at the stage where the Labour Party is incapable of running the Labour Party.
Bloody hell. We do actually need an opposition to keep the government on its toes.0 -
At least he's taken his jacket off - what a waste of trees - 250,000 copies:
http://www.andy4labour.co.uk//manifesto0 -
It is for the next permanent leader, so the bets should stand.MP_SE said:What is the bookies position if the leadership contest is postponed/called off? The odds on Corbyn seem overly generous.
There are good odds on some other likely candidates should the whole contest get a restart, though I think that unlikely. It would press the detonate button. Better to have Corbyn then defenestrate him in a couple of years, on some pretext or another and run a "unity" candidate.0 -
Straight talking, He sounds like he will be on the Yes side in the EUref.Casino_Royale said:Jezza will mop up the UKIP vote with messages like this on immigration:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saOGTZpVHhI
Corbyn is a curates egg; very good in parts!0 -
Tories stretching the blame game here - particularly as Scottish unemployment was down 13,000 during the quarter:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-blame-unemployments-continuing-rise-on-the-snp-and-labour-10451248.html0 -
The odds on Dan Jarvis and Alan Johnson caught my eye. However, there appears to be a huge amount of momentum behind Corbyn I could still seeing him doing very well if it was rerun several months down the line.foxinsoxuk said:
It is for the next permanent leader, so the bets should stand.MP_SE said:What is the bookies position if the leadership contest is postponed/called off? The odds on Corbyn seem overly generous.
There are good odds on some other likely candidates should the whole contest get a restart, though I think that unlikely. It would press the detonate button. Better to have Corbyn then defenestrate him in a couple of years, on some pretext or another and run a "unity" candidate.
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The large numbers of people Labour have attracted over the last couple of weeks are bound to cause admin problems. They might well put the noses out of joint of existing members and MPs too. But as problems go, that is a better one to have than holding a leadership election where nobody cares what happens. Who knows what will happen next? In a few years time, when all the new members have the measure of what a political is about, Labour just might be the most motivated and effective opposition it has ever been. It might not seem likely, but then neither did the SNP landslide in Scotland.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Crosby, we appear to be at the stage where the Labour Party is incapable of running the Labour Party.
Bloody hell. We do actually need an opposition to keep the government on its toes.0 -
His premise that life has got harder in the 21st century. Is that correct? Things certainly got a lot tougher following the crash, and housing is a major issue. But is it tougher now than thirty years ago?calum said:At least he's taken his jacket off - what a waste of trees - 250,000 copies:
http://www.andy4labour.co.uk//manifesto
0 -
China explosion allegedly visible from space
@NewsOnTheMin: The explosion of #Tianjin #China has been visible from space. (@RussellDengel) http://t.co/1ivwCiM8b20 -
@Independent: Reports of hundreds injured after huge explosion in Tianjin, China http://t.co/7gsT2Nqhs5 http://t.co/wN7KEns7pe0
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Corbyn has a +7% approval rating in Scotland with yougovDair said:
Hahahahahaha.HYUFD said:
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the ToriesAndyJS said:
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.Casino_Royale said:
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.antifrank said:I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
You're delusional state is actually getting worse.0 -
test0
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Incidentally, the more Clause 4-type things Corbyn comes out with, the more Eurosceptic he becomes.
The EU does not like trade unions, and it certainly does not like the British government operating major competitors against commercially run companies on the continent.0 -
The party constitution explicitly mentions using european institutions for good or something like that - so he may try to amend that as his clause-4 moment.TheWhiteRabbit said:Incidentally, the more Clause 4-type things Corbyn comes out with, the more Eurosceptic he becomes.
The EU does not like trade unions, and it certainly does not like the British government operating major competitors against commercially run companies on the continent.0 -
Election uncertainty reducing business investment over a period is not a stretch and seems highly plausible. Clearly that excuse won't stretch to any future figures however.calum said:Tories stretching the blame game here - particularly as Scottish unemployment was down 13,000 during the quarter:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-blame-unemployments-continuing-rise-on-the-snp-and-labour-10451248.html
0
