so Labour now has more new people who are eligible to vote than it had members before the election. That must be scary for long term Labour members, who are now in the position that the party they belonged to has disappeared from under them and become something else. A problem of the party's own making through the leadership election rules. The Lib Dem leadership election may have had a much smaller pool of potential candidates, but both those who stood were viable leaders with ideas, and the vast majority of the party would have been happy with either. The election was characterised by enthusiastic hustings, a lot of genuine new members joined without any hint of entryism, and the whole thing was conducted to a sensible timetable. As a Lib Dem, having had for 20 years to put up with the Labour party's view that we were their minions, I can't help but be right royally entertained.
''Still, more entertainment to come, that's for sure.''
Its difficult to see an outcome where labour doesn't either split, or loses at least one MP to independent.
It's difficult to see an outcome where Labour continues to exist.
They are already virtually extinct in Scotland and now they are facing oblivion in England and Wales. And not because of Corbyn but because of the ridiculous infighting and panic.
Anti-Toryism is still strong, the floor of Labour support still seems something most parties would be happy with, unless we are expecting the LDs, UKIP or someone else to rise in England.
Hopefully an opening for Mebion, Yorkshire First, Wessex Regionalists and others.
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
I like it particularly when I stand to make a substantial chunk of dosh from it!
I'm not counting my chickens because I've been very committal on this. If anyone other than Jeremy Corbyn wins now, it's cornflakes for the rest of September chez antifrank.
I haven't gone all in because I fear that JC will stand down and say "debate had, point proven". He must realise that he would lead the party to electoral oblivion and might decide to stick to his original idea of just opening up the debate.
How could he do that? It would make the whole thing a complete farce.
It's not as if any of the other candidates have taken on his views in any way so if he stood aside now it would have achieved nothing (other making Labour look even more of a shambles than before).
Indeed.
Any possibility that Corbyn would stand aside and let the other three fight it out has been completely destroyed by the other three themselves. Their hostile, negative, antagonistic approach to anything he had to say and any policy he backed has only entrenched Corbyn's desire to win.
Even if things are bad, at least half of the party will want to blame Blairites and other running-dog splittists, rather than the loony-left nature of the leader. 'One more heave' to get rid of the virus of Blairism and all will be sweetness, light and electoral triumph.
With apologies to any D&D fans, I have this mental image now of Osborne in the Treasury, rolling die...
Double 20! Ok, we win the election.
Double 20! With a majority.
Double 20! Ed stands down immediately, leaving Labour leaderless and rudderless
Double 20! They put some forgotten backbencher from the lunatic wing of the party on the ballot, out of some misplaced sense of solidarity
Double 20! He looks like winning
Double 20! The others throw a hissy fit
Double 20! Electoral Reform Society - running the Labour ballot - tells Labour to delay leadership contest because of problems
To put that figure in context, fewer than 200,000 people voted in the last Tory leadership election
Rather satisfyingly, I was in that electorate (voted for DC) and am now in t'Labour electorate (will vote for JC, of course).. the difference being though, one electorate requires a minimum of one year's full membership (and you vote for the two top candidates chosen by MPs) and the other requires £3.
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
The interesting part is that it's a first for Trump, no other poll has him beating Hillary, this is the first one.
"Glasgow has the largest economy in Scotland and is at the hub of the metropolitan area of West Central Scotland. Glasgow also has the third highest GDP Per capita of any city in the UK (after London and Edinburgh).[110] The city itself sustains more than 410,000 jobs in over 12,000 companies. Over 153,000 jobs were created in the city between 2000 and 2005 — a growth rate of 32%.[111] Glasgow's annual economic growth rate of 4.4% is now second only to that of London."
The of sorts is that this applies to greater Glasgow region rather than the City :
Despite Glasgow's economic renaissance, the East End of the city remains the focus of social deprivation.[28] A Glasgow Economic Audit report published in 2007 stated that the gap between prosperous and deprived areas of the city is widening.[29] In 2006, 47% of Glasgow's population lived in the most deprived 15% of areas in Scotland,[29] while the Centre for Social Justice reported 29.4% of the city's working-age residents to be "economically inactive".[28] Although marginally behind the UK average, Glasgow still has a higher employment rate than Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester.[29]
score draw :-)
Glasgow has always been a great place to live and work but it has always been hampered by the Labour Party and their dominance of Glasgow Council. Labour has no incentive to ever improve people's lives. The poorer people are, the more secure their vote (used to be) for Labour.
The SNP will sort a lot of the negatives out after they take control in 2017. They have made enormous strides in Dundee, which for many years has always appeared to me to be THE most depressing and hellish place to live in Western Europe (excluding Wales).
Today, while still not completely there, Dundee actually comes across as a decent place to live, or at least acceptable which is still a massive improvement.
Even if things are bad, at least half of the party will want to blame Blairites and other running-dog splittists, rather than the loony-left nature of the leader. 'One more heave' to get rid of the virus of Blairism and all will be sweetness, light and electoral triumph.
With apologies to any D&D fans, I have this mental image now of Osborne in the Treasury, rolling die...
Double 20! Ok, we win the election.
Double 20! With a majority.
Double 20! Ed stands down immediately, leaving Labour leaderless and rudderless
Double 20! They put some forgotten backbencher from the lunatic wing of the party on the ballot, out of some misplaced sense of solidarity
Double 20! He looks like winning
Double 20! The others throw a hissy fit
Double 20! Electoral Reform Society - running the Labour ballot - tells Labour to delay leadership contest because of problems
I like it particularly when I stand to make a substantial chunk of dosh from it!
I'm not counting my chickens because I've been very committal on this. If anyone other than Jeremy Corbyn wins now, it's cornflakes for the rest of September chez antifrank.
1.99% of the number of people who voted in the last election. 6.54% of the number of Labour voters.
That's more than half the number of those who voted Green in the last election.
In terms of direct participation, I can't think of a bigger democratic event in British political history than this Labour leadership campaign will - assuming a highish turnout. There is a lot of sneering going on in this thread, but I don't see any other organisation in the country that can get these kinds of numbers actively involved. And all this is done with largely hostile media. Writing off Labour seems rather bold.
Mr. Sulphate, you might very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment (well, I could, but my comment would subsequently be declared void by the People's Democratic Committee).
Mr. kle4, cheers
I always disliked that bit in Fellowship of the Ring when Elrond's knocking humans and dwarves, when his 'plan' is to run away.
Labour membership now at its highest level since the 1990s (and that's without taking into account the £3 supporters).
Putting election winning aside, if we're talking about rebuilding Labour as a left-wing democratic political movement, Corbyn has certainly achieved that.
1.99% of the number of people who voted in the last election. 6.54% of the number of Labour voters.
That's more than half the number of those who voted Green in the last election.
In terms of direct participation, I can't think of a bigger democratic event in British political history than this Labour leadership campaign will - assuming a highish turnout. There is a lot of sneering going on in this thread, but I don't see any other organisation in the country that can get these kinds of numbers actively involved. And all this is done with largely hostile media. Writing off Labour seems rather bold.
Proportionately, the SNP still has twice the numbers.
The Hoover free flights promotion was a marketing promotion begun in 1992. The British division of The Hoover Company was carrying a large surplus stock of washing machines and vacuum cleaners and in order to sell them and free up warehouse space, it promised free airline tickets to customers who purchased more than £100 worth of its products. However, Hoover had not anticipated that huge numbers of customers would buy the qualifying products not because they wanted the actual appliances, but simply because they wanted the tickets.
Initially the offer was for two round-trip tickets to Europe, but the destinations were later expanded to include the USA. At this point the consumer response increased enormously, as the normal price of these flights was several times more than the £100 purchase required to get free tickets. The company subsequently found itself overwhelmed by the demand both for tickets and for new vacuum cleaners, and by the cost of the flights. Hoover had apparently not anticipated this outcome.
Mr. Sulphate, you might very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment (well, I could, but my comment would subsequently be declared void by the People's Democratic Committee).
I suppose they could argue that since less than 1% of the British public voted in the leadership election it shows that 99% didn't vote for Corbyn so he has no democratic mandate.
Or does that logic only apply when the Tories win the election?
Those figures are extraordinary. This is going to be a landslide.
And yet Corbyn is still trading at 1.48-1.50 on Betfair. Extraordinary.
I registered only the other day but not voting Corbyn. The polls might be motivating moderates as well.
One can hope
At least 65% of those affiliates and registered supporters will be for Corbyn, IMHO.
I suspect their turnout (or arsedness to vote, as we traditionally call it) will be lower than Labour party members, but nowhere near enough to offset the margin.
Particularly since old Labour party members quite like him as well.
Tony Blair: Labour faces 'annihilation' if Jeremy Corbyn wins leadership
Former prime minister intensifies warning to Labour leadership voters, urging them to reject Corbyn’s policies and ‘understand the danger we are in’
The Labour party is in the worst danger in its 100-year history and faces possible annihilation if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership, Tony Blair has warned.
In a desperate appeal to Labour members and supporters, the former prime minister urged them to set aside their opinions about his three terms in power and save the party from self-destruction by rejecting Corbyn’s politics.
“It doesn’t matter whether you’re on the left, right or centre of the party, whether you used to support me or hate me,” he wrote. “But please understand the danger we are in.
“The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below. This is not a moment to refrain from disturbing the serenity of the walk on the basis it causes ‘disunity’. It is a moment for a rugby tackle if that were possible.”
Mr. Sulphate, you might very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment (well, I could, but my comment would subsequently be declared void by the People's Democratic Committee).
I suppose they could argue that since less than 1% of the British public voted in the leadership election it shows that 99% didn't vote for Corbyn so he has no democratic mandate.
Or does that logic only apply when the Tories win the election?
1.99% of the number of people who voted in the last election. 6.54% of the number of Labour voters.
That's more than half the number of those who voted Green in the last election.
In terms of direct participation, I can't think of a bigger democratic event in British political history than this Labour leadership campaign will - assuming a highish turnout. There is a lot of sneering going on in this thread, but I don't see any other organisation in the country that can get these kinds of numbers actively involved. And all this is done with largely hostile media. Writing off Labour seems rather bold.
Proportionately, the SNP still has twice the numbers.
Mr. Sulphate, you might very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment (well, I could, but my comment would subsequently be declared void by the People's Democratic Committee).
Mr. kle4, cheers
I always disliked that bit in Fellowship of the Ring when Elrond's knocking humans and dwarves, when his 'plan' is to run away.
It's a bit of a pet peeve of mine in fantasy and sci-fi to have Elf or Elf-like races preaching to others about their faults, usually when they are in a far more comfortable position which allows their own more 'civilized' behaviours free of difficult choices, and the story seems to agree with them.
Labour membership now at its highest level since the 1990s (and that's without taking into account the £3 supporters).
Yes, and the party is about to become incapable of winning elections in this country. Amazing achievement by Ed.
I prefer the Tory way, £25 and at least one year of prior membership to earn a vote on any leadership election. Not £3 or instant signups, it isn't fair to the members who go out there and campaign in local and national elections to have the voices drowned out by these upstarts who don't care for the party and are likely to be trots attracted by Corbyn.
Tony Blair: Labour faces 'annihilation' if Jeremy Corbyn wins leadership
Former prime minister intensifies warning to Labour leadership voters, urging them to reject Corbyn’s policies and ‘understand the danger we are in’
The Labour party is in the worst danger in its 100-year history and faces possible annihilation if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership, Tony Blair has warned.
In a desperate appeal to Labour members and supporters, the former prime minister urged them to set aside their opinions about his three terms in power and save the party from self-destruction by rejecting Corbyn’s politics.
“It doesn’t matter whether you’re on the left, right or centre of the party, whether you used to support me or hate me,” he wrote. “But please understand the danger we are in.
“The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below. This is not a moment to refrain from disturbing the serenity of the walk on the basis it causes ‘disunity’. It is a moment for a rugby tackle if that were possible.”
Welcome back, Jack. We had a lengthy post mortem on this while you were away, so I'm reluctant to reopen it, especially as various contributors were obsessively nasty about it, but briefly, I thought that we were clearly winning a few months before the election, and there were signs that the Tories thought so too, but the election campaign went from bad to worse, and in the final 24 hours it became clear that it was going to end badly, with previous apparently firm promises going soft. The familiar themes - economy, SNP, Miliband - all played a part, more than local issues, but a 31% turnover in the electorate since 2010 was unhelpful too. (All just IMO, of course.)
I think the spectre of the SNP bogey man played a much more significant part than expected and rewarded the Conservatives with a rich seam of additional marginals - probably about a dozen, although Broxtowe was already into the blue column without the added tartan tinge.
Creasy is well on board, even if she doesn't win the deputy leadership...
stellacreasy @stellacreasy Given many alienated from politics, am excited by interest shown in labour contest-IMHO challenge 4 all is not 2 waste that energy 4 change! Time 4 real movement politics..
Excellent article on the GOP ticket race. I agree with the conclusions, and with the favored ticket (Kasich/Rubio). If such a market exists, a Kasich either way bet (top or bottom of the ticket) would seem worthwhile.
I’ve paid my Labour party subs now for 52 years and that has given me the right to vote in selections, attend meetings, put forward resolutions to determine party policy, attend conferences and, of course, to knock on doors and deliver leaflets. Under the new rules (thank you Ed Miliband) I, and people like me, can be out-voted in the most important election in the Labour party by people with little interest in Labour forming a government in the foreseeable future.
As one of our new ‘friends’ said last week when asked if they would like to help the Labour party, ‘no thanks, I just want to vote for Jeremy’.
Labour membership now at its highest level since the 1990s (and that's without taking into account the £3 supporters).
Yes, and the party is about to become incapable of winning elections in this country. Amazing achievement by Ed.
I prefer the Tory way, £25 and at least one year of prior membership to earn a vote on any leadership election. Not £3 or instant signups, it isn't fair to the members who go out there and campaign in local and national elections to have the voices drowned out by these upstarts who don't care for the party and are likely to be trots attracted by Corbyn.
If I were a £3 Blue Corbynista I would be waiting until the very last minute before casting my vote. I must admit I've been very surprised at the amount of gloating by PB Tory and political commentators about the rise of Corbyn.
I think Corbyn will continue to target the trade union and student groups to further build his powerbase. In terms of union members, the Tories anti-union rhetoric is a gift horse for Corbyn. As for students, Corbyn just has to make promises to cut fees and write-off a chunk of their loans and the Labour student group ranks will swell.
As for the theory that Murdoch, Dacare and the Tories are biding their time before trashing Corbyn - I think their attempts to demonise Corbyn could easily backfire.
Those figures are extraordinary. This is going to be a landslide.
And yet Corbyn is still trading at 1.48-1.50 on Betfair. Extraordinary.
I registered only the other day but not voting Corbyn. The polls might be motivating moderates as well.
One can hope
I doubt it. The high number of affiliates indicates that these are almost certainly Corbyn supporters unless we can get a breakdown of those affiliates which shows that a very significant portion of them came from USDAW (the only sizable union to support Burnham) or GMB and Unity (which are undeclared). Otherwise, it is safe to assume that they're in the Corbyn camp and have increased his lead further. He should now be beyond 60% in first preferences - an unassailable lead.
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
If I were a £3 Blue Corbynista I would be waiting until the very last minute before casting my vote. I must admit I've been very surprised at the amount of gloating by PB Tory and political commentators about the rise of Corbyn.
I think Corbyn will continue to target the trade union and student groups to further build his powerbase. In terms of union members, the Tories anti-union rhetoric is a gift horse for Corbyn. As for students, Corbyn just has to make promises to cut fees and write-off a chunk of their loans and the Labour student group ranks will swell.
As for the theory that Murdoch, Dacare and the Tories are biding their time before trashing Corbyn - I think their attempts to demonise Corbyn could easily backfire.
Tony Blair: Labour faces 'annihilation' if Jeremy Corbyn wins leadership
Former prime minister intensifies warning to Labour leadership voters, urging them to reject Corbyn’s policies and ‘understand the danger we are in’
The Labour party is in the worst danger in its 100-year history and faces possible annihilation if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership, Tony Blair has warned.
In a desperate appeal to Labour members and supporters, the former prime minister urged them to set aside their opinions about his three terms in power and save the party from self-destruction by rejecting Corbyn’s politics.
“It doesn’t matter whether you’re on the left, right or centre of the party, whether you used to support me or hate me,” he wrote. “But please understand the danger we are in.
“The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below. This is not a moment to refrain from disturbing the serenity of the walk on the basis it causes ‘disunity’. It is a moment for a rugby tackle if that were possible.”
The interesting part is that it's a first for Trump, no other poll has him beating Hillary, this is the first one.
Have there been many match-up polls in individual states as against nationally ? Trump would presumably beat Hillary in a lot of other states such as Idaho, Utah and Oklahoma but no one has polled any of those.
Trump leading Hillary in Florida, California or Ohio would be significant - Trump (and all other GOP contenders) beating her in Missouri isn't news at all.
Labour membership now at its highest level since the 1990s (and that's without taking into account the £3 supporters).
Yes, and the party is about to become incapable of winning elections in this country. Amazing achievement by Ed.
I prefer the Tory way, £25 and at least one year of prior membership to earn a vote on any leadership election. Not £3 or instant signups, it isn't fair to the members who go out there and campaign in local and national elections to have the voices drowned out by these upstarts who don't care for the party and are likely to be trots attracted by Corbyn.
Yet the Conservatives are going with an open primary to select their London mayoral candidate. The practicalities may be different but the principle is much the same.
If I were a £3 Blue Corbynista I would be waiting until the very last minute before casting my vote. I must admit I've been very surprised at the amount of gloating by PB Tory and political commentators about the rise of Corbyn.
I think Corbyn will continue to target the trade union and student groups to further build his powerbase. In terms of union members, the Tories anti-union rhetoric is a gift horse for Corbyn. As for students, Corbyn just has to make promises to cut fees and write-off a chunk of their loans and the Labour student group ranks will swell.
As for the theory that Murdoch, Dacare and the Tories are biding their time before trashing Corbyn - I think their attempts to demonise Corbyn could easily backfire.
Students, young people and union members are not going to be enough to win elections in this country. Not even close. Corbyn is voter poison among middle England, Labour would be in for an pasting in the Midlands, parts of the more aspirational North and any suburbs and commuter towns they made headway in last time. Building up votes in safe seats in Liverpool, North East and parts of the Valleys isn't going to make up for those losses.
I have a sneaky suspicion the £3 administration fee is not going to cover the cost of vetting.
Things couldn’t have worse or more costly if Lucy Powell had been organising things.
..and so it will be with Trent Bridge. The capacity is 17500 inc staffing say 19000. People will claim to have been there when England won the Ashes. The odds will be that they were not
Although that reminds me I forgot about the elves in Dragon Age. The losers got their arses kicked by mankind (twice), and they're still smug as hell.
s.
I'm a little more forgiving with them, as they're angry and bitter about everything, so I figure it makes more sense to try to act all superior. (plus I'm a huge DragonAge fan).
That said, it made some of the revelations about the ancient elves in DragonAge Inquisition quite interesting.
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
'Apparently he can annihilate the Labour Party in just 45 minutes. Alastair Campbell is writing a dossier about it.'
Tony Blair: Labour faces 'annihilation' if Jeremy Corbyn wins leadership
Former prime minister intensifies warning to Labour leadership voters, urging them to reject Corbyn’s policies and ‘understand the danger we are in’
The Labour party is in the worst danger in its 100-year history and faces possible annihilation if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership, Tony Blair has warned.
In a desperate appeal to Labour members and supporters, the former prime minister urged them to set aside their opinions about his three terms in power and save the party from self-destruction by rejecting Corbyn’s politics.
“It doesn’t matter whether you’re on the left, right or centre of the party, whether you used to support me or hate me,” he wrote. “But please understand the danger we are in.
“The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below. This is not a moment to refrain from disturbing the serenity of the walk on the basis it causes ‘disunity’. It is a moment for a rugby tackle if that were possible.”
Tony Blair: Labour faces 'annihilation' if Jeremy Corbyn wins leadership
Former prime minister intensifies warning to Labour leadership voters, urging them to reject Corbyn’s policies and ‘understand the danger we are in’
The Labour party is in the worst danger in its 100-year history and faces possible annihilation if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership, Tony Blair has warned.
In a desperate appeal to Labour members and supporters, the former prime minister urged them to set aside their opinions about his three terms in power and save the party from self-destruction by rejecting Corbyn’s politics.
“It doesn’t matter whether you’re on the left, right or centre of the party, whether you used to support me or hate me,” he wrote. “But please understand the danger we are in.
“The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below. This is not a moment to refrain from disturbing the serenity of the walk on the basis it causes ‘disunity’. It is a moment for a rugby tackle if that were possible.”
Mr. kle4, I've completed the main game but haven't played any DLC (not a DLC fan. May well wait and see how they go down and maybe try a cut-price Ultimate Edition if one's released).
I do really enjoy the Dragon Age lore. World-building's something I like both creating and when reading books or playing videogames. I hope we see more of the Qunari in future games.
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
The comments in the Guardian are scarily conformist. Anyone who deviates even slightly from the group-think is an evil Tory.
The left seem to want to talk to themselves and no one else. I thought the general election would have been a wake up call, but they instead seem to have doubled down on the strategy.
If I were a £3 Blue Corbynista I would be waiting until the very last minute before casting my vote. I must admit I've been very surprised at the amount of gloating by PB Tory and political commentators about the rise of Corbyn.
I think Corbyn will continue to target the trade union and student groups to further build his powerbase. In terms of union members, the Tories anti-union rhetoric is a gift horse for Corbyn. As for students, Corbyn just has to make promises to cut fees and write-off a chunk of their loans and the Labour student group ranks will swell.
As for the theory that Murdoch, Dacare and the Tories are biding their time before trashing Corbyn - I think their attempts to demonise Corbyn could easily backfire.
All of this is already out there - the recent YouGov survey only 16% of Labour folk were less likely to vote Labour if Corbyn wins.
Corbyn doesn't need MSM support - the last few weeks have shown him to be a very effective campaigner and he is harnessing social media.
It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
If I were a £3 Blue Corbynista I would be waiting until the very last minute before casting my vote. I must admit I've been very surprised at the amount of gloating by PB Tory and political commentators about the rise of Corbyn.
I think Corbyn will continue to target the trade union and student groups to further build his powerbase. In terms of union members, the Tories anti-union rhetoric is a gift horse for Corbyn. As for students, Corbyn just has to make promises to cut fees and write-off a chunk of their loans and the Labour student group ranks will swell.
As for the theory that Murdoch, Dacare and the Tories are biding their time before trashing Corbyn - I think their attempts to demonise Corbyn could easily backfire.
All of this is already out there - the recent YouGov survey only 16% of Labour folk were less likely to vote Labour if Corbyn wins.
Corbyn doesn't need MSM support - the last few weeks have shown him to be a very effective campaigner and he is harnessing social media.
That's of Labour members currently signed up to vote in the leadership election. Put it to the wider electorate, especially in Con/Lab marginals and it will be a different picture. Corbyn will solidify already safe seats by consolidating some of the Green vote into Labour's but lose heavily to the Tories in the marginals. It will be like Ed Miliband on steroids.
If I were a £3 Blue Corbynista I would be waiting until the very last minute before casting my vote. I must admit I've been very surprised at the amount of gloating by PB Tory and political commentators about the rise of Corbyn.
I think Corbyn will continue to target the trade union and student groups to further build his powerbase. In terms of union members, the Tories anti-union rhetoric is a gift horse for Corbyn. As for students, Corbyn just has to make promises to cut fees and write-off a chunk of their loans and the Labour student group ranks will swell.
As for the theory that Murdoch, Dacare and the Tories are biding their time before trashing Corbyn - I think their attempts to demonise Corbyn could easily backfire.
All of this is already out there - the recent YouGov survey only 16% of Labour folk were less likely to vote Labour if Corbyn wins.
Corbyn doesn't need MSM support - the last few weeks have shown him to be a very effective campaigner and he is harnessing social media.
Ruth D continuing to justify her Glasgow to Edinburgh move. If she wanted to walk her talk about moving to Edinburgh as she sees a real opportunity to increase the number of Tory MSPs, I guess she'll be quite happy to take up 3rd place on the Lothian regional list after the two sitting MSPs:
It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
OMG, WTF!!!
You could feel the impact! Mentally counting down for the sound and blast to hit, seconds after the light.
This recent picture from Andy Burnham's FB campaign website says it all really:
"The Rover is over over" as my ex-colleague in SA once said.
That has to be a parody, surely? "We know we're losing, but keep fighting!" seems to be the message.
I'm rather partial to the 'terrible rallying cries' examples from Pratchett's 'Jingo', from 'If we win, no one will remember, and if we lose, no one will forget' to 'Let's all get our throats cut, lads!'
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
RE: Labour weeding out votes even after they have been cast - I am not sure if the £3 has been accepted that they are not breaking a legal contract. I do not have the rules and regs but it seems that they are disqualifying people who are a member of another political party but is that illegal?
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
What would you have said two years ago to the SNP kicking Labour out of Glasgow and almost all areas of Scotland?
It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
I'm probably wrong, but I don't think those are apartment buildings: they seem a little close together and if they were, I'd have expected there to be lights on in them before the explosion. There are lights at their base, which might be roadway lighting.
My guess would be storage tanks? At least I hope so ...
Number of stay-at-home mothers falling by 12,000 a MONTH as growing number of fathers opt to look after the children
Number of women looking after their home falls by 35,000 in three months At the same time there are now record levels of women in employment Official figures show stay-at-home fathers is rising by 4,000 a month
It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion. ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
I'm probably wrong, but I don't think those are apartment buildings: they seem a little close together and if they were, I'd have expected there to be lights on in them before the explosion. There are lights at their base, which might be roadway lighting.
My guess would be storage tanks? At least I hope so ...
Comments
6.54% of the number of Labour voters.
That's more than half the number of those who voted Green in the last election.
The Lib Dem leadership election may have had a much smaller pool of potential candidates, but both those who stood were viable leaders with ideas, and the vast majority of the party would have been happy with either. The election was characterised by enthusiastic hustings, a lot of genuine new members joined without any hint of entryism, and the whole thing was conducted to a sensible timetable.
As a Lib Dem, having had for 20 years to put up with the Labour party's view that we were their minions, I can't help but be right royally entertained.
What a way to run a party.
Corbyn will get a mandate alright.
I am tempted to sign on to vote for the Tories too...
Any possibility that Corbyn would stand aside and let the other three fight it out has been completely destroyed by the other three themselves. Their hostile, negative, antagonistic approach to anything he had to say and any policy he backed has only entrenched Corbyn's desire to win.
Double 20! Ok, we win the election.
Double 20! With a majority.
Double 20! Ed stands down immediately, leaving Labour leaderless and rudderless
Double 20! They put some forgotten backbencher from the lunatic wing of the party on the ballot, out of some misplaced sense of solidarity
Double 20! He looks like winning
Double 20! The others throw a hissy fit
Double 20! Electoral Reform Society - running the Labour ballot - tells Labour to delay leadership contest because of problems
Yup, that last one just happened
http://t.co/HsQ9aM1PQR
What are affiliates? People registering to vote through a union?
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/guest-post-why-elves-are-total-bastards.html
The SNP will sort a lot of the negatives out after they take control in 2017. They have made enormous strides in Dundee, which for many years has always appeared to me to be THE most depressing and hellish place to live in Western Europe (excluding Wales).
Today, while still not completely there, Dundee actually comes across as a decent place to live, or at least acceptable which is still a massive improvement.
No possibility of a fix there then.
Things couldn’t have worse or more costly if Lucy Powell had been organising things.
And yet Corbyn is still trading at 1.48-1.50 on Betfair. Extraordinary.
Only this time, almost everyone I know really has got a vote in the Labour leadership election.
Mr. kle4, cheers
I always disliked that bit in Fellowship of the Ring when Elrond's knocking humans and dwarves, when his 'plan' is to run away.
And he has Ed Miliband to thank for it.
One can hope
Or does that logic only apply when the Tories win the election?
I suspect their turnout (or arsedness to vote, as we traditionally call it) will be lower than Labour party members, but nowhere near enough to offset the margin.
Particularly since old Labour party members quite like him as well.
Former prime minister intensifies warning to Labour leadership voters, urging them to reject Corbyn’s policies and ‘understand the danger we are in’
The Labour party is in the worst danger in its 100-year history and faces possible annihilation if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership, Tony Blair has warned.
In a desperate appeal to Labour members and supporters, the former prime minister urged them to set aside their opinions about his three terms in power and save the party from self-destruction by rejecting Corbyn’s politics.
“It doesn’t matter whether you’re on the left, right or centre of the party, whether you used to support me or hate me,” he wrote. “But please understand the danger we are in.
“The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below. This is not a moment to refrain from disturbing the serenity of the walk on the basis it causes ‘disunity’. It is a moment for a rugby tackle if that were possible.”
http://bit.ly/1Wj8v6m
I prefer the Tory way, £25 and at least one year of prior membership to earn a vote on any leadership election. Not £3 or instant signups, it isn't fair to the members who go out there and campaign in local and national elections to have the voices drowned out by these upstarts who don't care for the party and are likely to be trots attracted by Corbyn.
Welcome back, Jack. We had a lengthy post mortem on this while you were away, so I'm reluctant to reopen it, especially as various contributors were obsessively nasty about it, but briefly, I thought that we were clearly winning a few months before the election, and there were signs that the Tories thought so too, but the election campaign went from bad to worse, and in the final 24 hours it became clear that it was going to end badly, with previous apparently firm promises going soft. The familiar themes - economy, SNP, Miliband - all played a part, more than local issues, but a 31% turnover in the electorate since 2010 was unhelpful too. (All just IMO, of course.)
...........................................................................
Thanks Nick.
I think the spectre of the SNP bogey man played a much more significant part than expected and rewarded the Conservatives with a rich seam of additional marginals - probably about a dozen, although Broxtowe was already into the blue column without the added tartan tinge.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy
Given many alienated from politics, am excited by interest shown in labour contest-IMHO challenge 4 all is not 2 waste that energy 4 change! Time 4 real movement politics..
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-five-plausible-gop-candidates-1439333581
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-33896292
Mr. Llama, cheers, but I try and keep swearing to a relatively low level (I might save the F word for if Esmerelda ever shows up).
Mr. kle4, indeed. Pretentious pointy-ears.
Although that reminds me I forgot about the elves in Dragon Age. The losers got their arses kicked by mankind (twice), and they're still smug as hell.
Mr. Eagles, Blair may be right but he lacks any sense of self-awareness to make the comment himself.
Mr. Sulphate, believes that only applies to baby-eating Tories.
I think Corbyn will continue to target the trade union and student groups to further build his powerbase. In terms of union members, the Tories anti-union rhetoric is a gift horse for Corbyn. As for students, Corbyn just has to make promises to cut fees and write-off a chunk of their loans and the Labour student group ranks will swell.
As for the theory that Murdoch, Dacare and the Tories are biding their time before trashing Corbyn - I think their attempts to demonise Corbyn could easily backfire.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/12/even-if-hate-me-dont-take-labour-over-cliff-edge-tony-blair
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
Which part of terrorist supporting, NATO leaving, anti Queen, pro immigration, anti-Semite loving Labour leader would you think will unfoot anyone?
Trump leading Hillary in Florida, California or Ohio would be significant - Trump (and all other GOP contenders) beating her in Missouri isn't news at all.
I WAS.. and I shall never forget it.
That said, it made some of the revelations about the ancient elves in DragonAge Inquisition quite interesting.
Can I do a Victor Meldrew here ... "I don't believe it."
I do really enjoy the Dragon Age lore. World-building's something I like both creating and when reading books or playing videogames. I hope we see more of the Qunari in future games.
The left seem to want to talk to themselves and no one else. I thought the general election would have been a wake up call, but they instead seem to have doubled down on the strategy.
Only thing that springs to mind would be Hemel Hempstead one we had here. Almost miraculous nobody was killed in that.
Corbyn doesn't need MSM support - the last few weeks have shown him to be a very effective campaigner and he is harnessing social media.
"The Rover is over over" as my ex-colleague in SA once said.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
That surely must have claimed more than a few lives.
Labour doesn't need MSM? Corbyn will win using social media? What about the other 90%+ who don't occupy this bubble?
Well, if you really think that when sober - I'd suggest you stick a bundle on Jezza as Next PM.
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/opinion/ruth-davidson-ignore-martin-hannan-i-m-coming-home-1-3856473
You could feel the impact! Mentally counting down for the sound and blast to hit, seconds after the light.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington
Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Those majorities can just crumble.
My guess would be storage tanks? At least I hope so ...
Edit, seem from another angle as below, I fear I'm wrong.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-33896292
Or is it SClub7?