Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!
Which part of terrorist supporting, NATO leaving, anti Queen, pro immigration, anti-Semite loving Labour leader would you think will unfoot anyone?
Once of the most important ways that the establishment maintain the status quo is by keeping topics off the agenda.
The Monarchy should be on the agenda, it should have been on the agenda years ago. But it has always been kept off it. If Corbyn sparks the debate, then he will have done one good thing in his life.
Number of stay-at-home mothers falling by 12,000 a MONTH as growing number of fathers opt to look after the children
Number of women looking after their home falls by 35,000 in three months At the same time there are now record levels of women in employment Official figures show stay-at-home fathers is rising by 4,000 a month
Which part of terrorist supporting, NATO leaving, anti Queen, pro immigration, anti-Semite loving Labour leader would you think will unfoot anyone?
Once of the most important ways that the establishment maintain the status quo is by keeping topics off the agenda.
The Monarchy should be on the agenda, it should have been on the agenda years ago. But it has always been kept off it. If Corbyn sparks the debate, then he will have done one good thing in his life.
depends on your establishment, who's discussing oil prices in Scotland
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
Only against the Tories, but against the Lib Dems, Labour could lose quite a few of the gains they had against them this year. I would also add Enfield North to your lost of Lab losses to Con.
I also think UKIP could do well against an ultra-leftist Labour party, appealing to Mondeo Man.
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
OMG, WTF!!!
You could feel the impact! Mentally counting down for the sound and blast to hit, seconds after the light.
Bloody hell. With an explosion that large and powerful (the shock wave seems to knock people off their feet well over 1km away) I find it very hard to believe there are not significant fatalities.
The closest thing it reminds me of is an atomic blast.
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
'Apparently he can annihilate the Labour Party in just 45 minutes. Alastair Campbell is writing a dossier about it.'
Ironically, yougov now has Corbyn as more electable than Blair. While 11% of voters would be more likely to back a Blair led Labour Party, 32% would be less likely. 12% would be more likely to back a Corbyn led Labour Party, 14% less likely. (Though David Miliband does better than both, were he running 19% would be more likely to vote Labour, 13% less likely) https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance.
If the SDP hadn't formed then David Owen would had become Labour leader after Foot instead of Kinnock.
Out of topic:
The 3 "losers" writing a joint letter to protest that's unfair for them that voters are not voting for them is a sure way to convince people that yep from those 4 only Corbyn is the most capable and decent enough to do the job.
It certainly has convinced me, once I felt gravitating towards Cooper but over the past month I felt more and more convinced that those 3 are all crap, and Corbyn is the only one that has put any effort at winning people over, that letter is the final draw. Instead of getting out there trying to convince people to vote for them they moan why no one is voting for them.
Kendall, Cooper and Burnham are officially too crap to be leader of the Labour party any time any place.
You are quite right. Corbyn is running rings round the other 3, making them look amateurs. Still not 100% sure, but he will probably get my vote, feck the consequences. By the way i have been a labour member for more years than i care remember.
Pity the victims. I recall hearing a lecture by Margaret Mead in the 60s to the effect that public surveillance was coming and that it might not be a bad thing. As you might expect, that was prescient. Nowadays it seems that just about any event will be recorded by somebody(ies). For instance the spectacular meteor that came in over Russia recently.
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
Yes. My thinking is gain +5 MPs in Scotland. Lose - 30 MPs in E&W to the Tories. Lose perhaps 2-3 to the LDs. +1 for Brighton Pavilion. Maybe lose 2-4 to UKIP.
That gets him to around 201 MPs. I think in the core cities and left-wing sink holes (Cambridge, Brighton, London, Exeter, Liverpool and Manchester) he'd significantly up the Labour majorities.
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!
Humblebrag time once again.
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
RE: Labour weeding out votes even after they have been cast - I am not sure if the £3 has been accepted that they are not breaking a legal contract. I do not have the rules and regs but it seems that they are disqualifying people who are a member of another political party but is that illegal?
Also, why are Militant/Trotskyite/Maoist "entryists" being bracketed with Tory infilitrators? The former would, presumably, actually vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party at a GE, so they're acting entirely in the spirit of the contest. They aren't remotely equivalent to those who are trying to sabotage the process because they want Labour to lose.
Labour doing badly at the next election doesn't mean the Tories will necessarily have a brilliant night. They could easily lose a few votes as Thatcher did in 1983 vs Foot.
Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
Huge numbers of last day sign ups on Labour's website and the unions are going to deliver scads of votes for Corbyn. Even if he decided to pull out of the race, Burnham would become the favourite as the most lefty of those who would remain.
Mr. Mouse, nothing wrong with bragging if you show great insight, such as Mr. Smithson on Obama, Mr. Calum on Labour losses in Scotland, whoever first mooted backing Corbyn or, dare I say it, the handsome young morris dancer who tipped Jenson Button at 70/1 for the 2009 Drivers' title before the season even started.
Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.
It is hard to get a sense of the scale, but the explosion looks huge in this video and there appear to be many apartment buildings to the left which are caught up in the second major explosion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1aHADL2a24
OMG, WTF!!!
You could feel the impact! Mentally counting down for the sound and blast to hit, seconds after the light.
Bloody hell. With an explosion that large and powerful (the shock wave seems to knock people off their feet well over 1km away) I find it very hard to believe there are not significant fatalities.
The closest thing it reminds me of is an atomic blast.
If i was there witnessing that in person, I would be thinking the 'end of the world'!!
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
Yes. My thinking is gain +5 MPs in Scotland. Lose - 30 MPs in E&W to the Tories. Lose perhaps 2-3 to the LDs. +1 for Brighton Pavilion. Maybe lose 2-4 to UKIP.
That gets him to around 201 MPs. I think in the core cities and left-wing sink holes (Cambridge, Brighton, London, Exeter, Liverpool and Manchester) he'd significantly up the Labour majorities.
Labour are defending about ~50 seats which have majority of 5000 or less.
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
Yes. My thinking is gain +5 MPs in Scotland. Lose - 30 MPs in E&W to the Tories. Lose perhaps 2-3 to the LDs. +1 for Brighton Pavilion. Maybe lose 2-4 to UKIP.
That gets him to around 201 MPs. I think in the core cities and left-wing sink holes (Cambridge, Brighton, London, Exeter, Liverpool and Manchester) he'd significantly up the Labour majorities.
Labour are defending about ~50 seats which have majority of 5000 or less.
Yes, I know. But not all of them are vulnerable to the Conservatives under Corbyn.
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the Tories
Only thing that springs to mind would be Hemel Hempstead one we had here. Almost miraculous nobody was killed in that.
I remember Hemel Hempstead. I was living maybe 40 miles away in a thatched cottage, with wire over the thatch. When it exploded, the blast wave was like people running over the wire on the roof. Extraordinary.
Number of stay-at-home mothers falling by 12,000 a MONTH as growing number of fathers opt to look after the children
Number of women looking after their home falls by 35,000 in three months At the same time there are now record levels of women in employment Official figures show stay-at-home fathers is rising by 4,000 a month
That's interesting thanks. I am, of course, the trendsetter. One couple, who had their first child at the same time as ours, have decided that she is going back to work whilst he chucks in the job to look after their little 'un. And my example was, apparently, pivotal. (*)
And not only that, but I'm also a hero: valiantly looking after a toddler whilst suffering from a fractured elbow!
All hails Jessop!
Or something.
(*) Strangely, whilst she is happy to be going back to work, he has not thanked me for it ...
Mr. Mouse, nothing wrong with bragging if you show great insight, such as Mr. Smithson on Obama, Mr. Calum on Labour losses in Scotland, whoever first mooted backing Corbyn or, dare I say it, the handsome young morris dancer who tipped Jenson Button at 70/1 for the 2009 Drivers' title before the season even started.
That's the "once again" - I reckon I was also the first to seriously recommend backing Corbyn, back on 6 June
Labour doing badly at the next election doesn't mean the Tories will necessarily have a brilliant night. They could easily lose a few votes as Thatcher did in 1983 vs Foot.
Attracted away by the new SDP. Who is the new party that were not standing in 2010?
Commentisfree have brought this on themselves, having for some years actively discouraged commenters who don't fit within their approved leftist frames of reference.
'Apparently he can annihilate the Labour Party in just 45 minutes. Alastair Campbell is writing a dossier about it.'
Ironically, yougov now has Corbyn as more electable than Blair. While 11% of voters would be more likely to back a Blair led Labour Party, 32% would be less likely. 12% would be more likely to back a Corbyn led Labour Party, 14% less likely. (Though David Miliband does better than both, were he running 19% would be more likely to vote Labour, 13% less likely) https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf
How did I miss those internals. They are absolutely awful for Labour.
Only 17% have a more positive or already had a positive view view of Labour after the election, including 50% of Labour voters. 68% have a more negative or already had a negative view, including 41% of Labour voters, in the over 60's that's 80%.
That explains in part why there is a massive wave for Corbyn, even Labour voters have much more of a negative view of their party, a vote for Corbyn is also seen as a vote of no confidence to the Labour leadership.
Also compared to the other 3 he seems to be as good as Andy Burnham in repelling voters. Corbyn is at -2 same as Burnham but better that Kendall at -3 and Cooper at -6 (the composition is also a nice look with Kendall getting some Tory votes but losing massive amounts of Labour votes).
Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!
Humblebrag time once again.
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then too
BBC report's been updated, 50 in hospital it seems. That seems a low number.
That explosion was phenomenal unless it was miles away from built up areas (which it obviously isnt), the death toll is going to be big. There'll be people within a lethal blast range, in which there will be no remains.
Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.
Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!
Humblebrag time once again.
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then too
A delayed response to the financial crisis?
In the US, the bloviators on the right have spent so long yelling "SOCIALIST!" at Obama - when he's clearly nothing of the sort - that when an actual socialist comes along they've nothing left.
RE: Labour weeding out votes even after they have been cast - I am not sure if the £3 has been accepted that they are not breaking a legal contract. I do not have the rules and regs but it seems that they are disqualifying people who are a member of another political party but is that illegal?
It is likely a condition of the contract that the applicant is a supporter of the aims and values of the Labour Party. If so, the Labour Party has the right to terminate the contract and keep the £3 which was payable before termination if the applicant is not a supporter. Alternatively, if the applicant lies in response to a question asked before the contract was formed, the contract will be voidable for fraudulent misrepresentation. The Labour Party could not technically keep the £3, but it could set it off against all its losses which accrued as a result of entering into contract, whether foreseeable or not.
More interesting is whether there is a provision in the rules requiring the party to vet supporters for their views. If there is, and the party cannot or will not do so, one of the candidates could seek injunctive relief.
Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.
That is a pamphlet arguing very successfully for Labour voters to vote Corbyn as their leader, if the present lot do not want people to vote for their own leader then they deserve to have Corbyn voted as their leader.
They have successfully made me a very angry voter with their antics today, 3 hours ago I decided to finally dump Cooper for Corbyn because I felt that Corbyn deserved it more, now I'm voting Corbyn to kick those ungrateful pests of Labour MP's like Graham Stringer, Barry Sheerman, John Mann and Simon Danczuk up their arse.
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!
Humblebrag time once again.
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then too
A delayed response to the financial crisis?
In the US, the bloviators on the right have spent so long yelling "SOCIALIST!" at Obama - when he's clearly nothing of the sort - that when an actual socialist comes along they've nothing left.
@handandmouse Multiple LOLs. You'll have earned your bragging rights if the Weekend at Bernie's lasts that long. A very big if. Hillary is very nearly done and cooked now, which will open the door to multiple new entrants.
As for the bloviators on the right, they have no need to waste any breath on Bernie. If, by some miracle, he gets the Dem nod, then the war machine will train everything its got on him. But why use up ammo when you don't have to?
Trump naturally leads the GOP primary, the interesting part is this:
Trump 48% Hillary 39%
In a 3 way race:
Hillary 34% Trump 30% Bush 29%
To be fair, Missouri is hardly a marginal state. Romney won it 53.8 to 44.3 so for Clinton to be only 8-10 points doesn't suggest the GOP are on course to win. I do agree a Trump third party candidacy would be fascinating.
Sanders has led Trump in a few polls too, a Trump v Sanders contest must now be a real possibility and could be close. Perhaps a few years later we will have Boris v Corbyn in 2020!
Humblebrag time once again.
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
Well stranger things have happened, imagine Sanders and Corbyn in the White House in 2020 just over 10 years after Blair and Bush! Perhaps Marine Le Pen will be French President by then too
A delayed response to the financial crisis?
In the US, the bloviators on the right have spent so long yelling "SOCIALIST!" at Obama - when he's clearly nothing of the sort - that when an actual socialist comes along they've nothing left.
If the GOP pick Trump Sanders could yet be president
Have I missed something (been out of reach of web)? Cooper now at 10s
The number of people signed up to take part in the Labour contest having increased by 156,000 over the last 24 hours might have something to do with it.
That is a pamphlet arguing very successfully for Labour voters to vote Corbyn as their leader, if the present lot do not want people to vote for their own leader then they deserve to have Corbyn voted as their leader.
They have successfully made me a very angry voter with their antics today, 3 hours ago I decided to finally dump Cooper for Corbyn because I felt that Corbyn deserved it more, now I'm voting Corbyn to kick those ungrateful pests of Labour MP's like Graham Stringer, Barry Sheerman, John Mann and Simon Danczuk up their arse.
GRRRRRRRRRR. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Raf5JdFecPQ
I never knew headless chickens could talk until now.
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the Tories
Hahahahahaha.
You're delusional state is actually getting worse.
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the Tories
Hahahahahaha.
You're delusional state is actually getting worse.
Absolutely. There is literally zero reason to abandon the SNP for Corbyn as you couldn't put a fagpaper between them so may as well vote for the incumbent.
Mr. Crosby, we appear to be at the stage where the Labour Party is incapable of running the Labour Party.
Bloody hell. We do actually need an opposition to keep the government on its toes.
Just imagine in a parellel universe where Cameron has struck a small majority government in 2010, the Liberal Democrats (who would never have entered Downing Street) by now could be Her Majesty's Opposition either after a successful 2015 campaign or after 2020.
What is the bookies position if the leadership contest is postponed/called off? The odds on Corbyn seem overly generous.
It is for the next permanent leader, so the bets should stand.
There are good odds on some other likely candidates should the whole contest get a restart, though I think that unlikely. It would press the detonate button. Better to have Corbyn then defenestrate him in a couple of years, on some pretext or another and run a "unity" candidate.
What is the bookies position if the leadership contest is postponed/called off? The odds on Corbyn seem overly generous.
It is for the next permanent leader, so the bets should stand.
There are good odds on some other likely candidates should the whole contest get a restart, though I think that unlikely. It would press the detonate button. Better to have Corbyn then defenestrate him in a couple of years, on some pretext or another and run a "unity" candidate.
The odds on Dan Jarvis and Alan Johnson caught my eye. However, there appears to be a huge amount of momentum behind Corbyn I could still seeing him doing very well if it was rerun several months down the line.
Mr. Crosby, we appear to be at the stage where the Labour Party is incapable of running the Labour Party.
Bloody hell. We do actually need an opposition to keep the government on its toes.
The large numbers of people Labour have attracted over the last couple of weeks are bound to cause admin problems. They might well put the noses out of joint of existing members and MPs too. But as problems go, that is a better one to have than holding a leadership election where nobody cares what happens. Who knows what will happen next? In a few years time, when all the new members have the measure of what a political is about, Labour just might be the most motivated and effective opposition it has ever been. It might not seem likely, but then neither did the SNP landslide in Scotland.
His premise that life has got harder in the 21st century. Is that correct? Things certainly got a lot tougher following the crash, and housing is a major issue. But is it tougher now than thirty years ago?
I admire Tony Blair's commitment to Labour, but not his self-awareness or judgement.
“If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation,” he wrote.
Blair overstates his case. Doing a quick count, I reckon (in the Conservatives wildest dreams) at best these are the most they could hope to lost to the blues in GE2020. Almost no matter how left-wing the platform:
Chester, Wirral West, Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Walsall North, Wrexham, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling, Stoke-on-Trent South, Clwyd South, Darlington Delyn, Southampton Test, Chorley, Bury South, Dudley North, Wirral South, Luton South, Coventry North West, Tynemouth and Rother Valley
So Labour shouldn't be dropping below 200 MPs in almost any circumstances.
I think they could drop to 180-190 seats with Corbyn at the helm. A lot of those formerly safe Labour seats in Wales are looking a bit iffy for instance. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, Newport West, Delyn.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
There are 10 SNP seats in Labour's top 101 targets, it is quite possible Corbyn could win back most of them even if he loses some to the Tories
Hahahahahaha.
You're delusional state is actually getting worse.
Corbyn has a +7% approval rating in Scotland with yougov
Incidentally, the more Clause 4-type things Corbyn comes out with, the more Eurosceptic he becomes.
The EU does not like trade unions, and it certainly does not like the British government operating major competitors against commercially run companies on the continent.
Incidentally, the more Clause 4-type things Corbyn comes out with, the more Eurosceptic he becomes.
The EU does not like trade unions, and it certainly does not like the British government operating major competitors against commercially run companies on the continent.
The party constitution explicitly mentions using european institutions for good or something like that - so he may try to amend that as his clause-4 moment.
Election uncertainty reducing business investment over a period is not a stretch and seems highly plausible. Clearly that excuse won't stretch to any future figures however.
Comments
The Monarchy should be on the agenda, it should have been on the agenda years ago. But it has always been kept off it. If Corbyn sparks the debate, then he will have done one good thing in his life.
I also think UKIP could do well against an ultra-leftist Labour party, appealing to Mondeo Man.
Even if Labour get a swing in Scotland it won't win them any seats because the SNP majorities are so large now.
The closest thing it reminds me of is an atomic blast.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf
]
Still not 100% sure, but he will probably get my vote, feck the consequences. By the way i have been a labour member for more years than i care remember.
I recall hearing a lecture by Margaret Mead in the 60s to the effect that public surveillance was coming and that it might not be a bad thing. As you might expect, that was prescient.
Nowadays it seems that just about any event will be recorded by somebody(ies). For instance the spectacular meteor that came in over Russia recently.
That gets him to around 201 MPs. I think in the core cities and left-wing sink holes (Cambridge, Brighton, London, Exeter, Liverpool and Manchester) he'd significantly up the Labour majorities.
I was the 1st poster on here to spot the potential of Sanders, and stand to win four figures if he gets the Democratic nomination, and even more on Next President
Reminds me of Luttwak's strategy book, "Coup d'État: A practical handbook".
twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/631519951141117952
This just gets funnier and funnier.
And not only that, but I'm also a hero: valiantly looking after a toddler whilst suffering from a fractured elbow!
All hails Jessop!
Or something.
(*) Strangely, whilst she is happy to be going back to work, he has not thanked me for it ...
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/699401/#Comment_699401
Who is the new party that were not standing in 2010?
They are absolutely awful for Labour.
Only 17% have a more positive or already had a positive view view of Labour after the election, including 50% of Labour voters.
68% have a more negative or already had a negative view, including 41% of Labour voters, in the over 60's that's 80%.
That explains in part why there is a massive wave for Corbyn, even Labour voters have much more of a negative view of their party, a vote for Corbyn is also seen as a vote of no confidence to the Labour leadership.
Also compared to the other 3 he seems to be as good as Andy Burnham in repelling voters. Corbyn is at -2 same as Burnham but better that Kendall at -3 and Cooper at -6 (the composition is also a nice look with Kendall getting some Tory votes but losing massive amounts of Labour votes).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-33896292
[ "All power to Jeremy Corbyn's campaign!" ]
http://www.rcpbml.org.uk/wwie-15/ww15-23.htm#lead
is slightly more enthusiastic about Jeremy Corbyn than
the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
[ "Labour's great white elephant" ]
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=proletarian&subName=display&art=1132
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/597895/Labour-Party-leadership-contest-MPs-warn-legal-challenge
Bloody hell. We do actually need an opposition to keep the government on its toes.
http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/entrism-small-part-jeremy-corbyns-rise/5050
In the US, the bloviators on the right have spent so long yelling "SOCIALIST!" at Obama - when he's clearly nothing of the sort - that when an actual socialist comes along they've nothing left.
http://www.sconews.co.uk/news/46528/labour-candidate-loses-party-support-over-accusations-of-anti-catholic-social-media-posts/
Here are some possible names:
Old Labour Revived
Working Labour
Militant Labour
Real Labour
Socialist Labour
Or will it be National Socialist Labour Party???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saOGTZpVHhI
More interesting is whether there is a provision in the rules requiring the party to vet supporters for their views. If there is, and the party cannot or will not do so, one of the candidates could seek injunctive relief.
They have successfully made me a very angry voter with their antics today, 3 hours ago I decided to finally dump Cooper for Corbyn because I felt that Corbyn deserved it more, now I'm voting Corbyn to kick those ungrateful pests of Labour MP's like Graham Stringer, Barry Sheerman, John Mann and Simon Danczuk up their arse.
GRRRRRRRRRR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Raf5JdFecPQ
As for the bloviators on the right, they have no need to waste any breath on Bernie. If, by some miracle, he gets the Dem nod, then the war machine will train everything its got on him. But why use up ammo when you don't have to?
You're delusional state is actually getting worse.
http://www.andy4labour.co.uk//manifesto
There are good odds on some other likely candidates should the whole contest get a restart, though I think that unlikely. It would press the detonate button. Better to have Corbyn then defenestrate him in a couple of years, on some pretext or another and run a "unity" candidate.
Corbyn is a curates egg; very good in parts!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-blame-unemployments-continuing-rise-on-the-snp-and-labour-10451248.html
@NewsOnTheMin: The explosion of #Tianjin #China has been visible from space. (@RussellDengel) http://t.co/1ivwCiM8b2
The EU does not like trade unions, and it certainly does not like the British government operating major competitors against commercially run companies on the continent.