politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The practical guide to centre-left schisms
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I have to say I do feel absolubtely filthy giving Labour £3 !!TheScreamingEagles said:
I've just written the weekend thread about how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister in 2020.Pulpstar said:
You still have 13 minutes to registerTheScreamingEagles said:So I'm the only PBer not voting in the Labour leadership election?
Not for the first time I feel like a Nun in a whorehouse.
I'm not going to tempt fate by voting for him0 -
Fear not, they'll waste more than that checking you out.Pulpstar said:
I have to say I do feel absolubtely filthy giving Labour £3 !!TheScreamingEagles said:
I've just written the weekend thread about how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister in 2020.Pulpstar said:
You still have 13 minutes to registerTheScreamingEagles said:So I'm the only PBer not voting in the Labour leadership election?
Not for the first time I feel like a Nun in a whorehouse.
I'm not going to tempt fate by voting for him
BTW did you declare that you had a direct financial interest in the outcome
? 0 -
Three glorious minutes to go to register to vote, comrades.0
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Tick Tock - only 3 mins left...
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In the past, the main parties have tended to find defectors a seat somewhere else, e.g. Shaun Woodward and his butler going off to St HelensDanny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
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That has to be one of the funniest/most inappropriate seats to be handed.
Tristram in Stoke Central comes a close second.GarethoftheVale2 said:
In the past, the main parties have tended to find defectors a seat somewhere else, e.g. Shaun Woodward and his butler going off to St HelensDanny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
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Carswell has set a precedent though, and isn't there recall procedures in place now which could be triggered by unhappy Labour voters in their constituencies if they defected?TheScreamingEagles said:
Any patriotic lion defecting to the Tories won't have to resign and fight a by-election.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label. I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
Austerity and all that jazz, so no needs for a costly by election.
Any traitorous pig dog defecting from the Tories has to fight a by election because the Tories won a mandate in May and they are repudiating that mandate.
IMO, of all the likely defectors, the only one who would have a chance of holding their seat as a Tory is John Woodcock.0 -
Yes after my last time in a whorehouse.JackW said:
You feel the need to go disguised ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not for the first time I feel like a Nun in a whorehouse.
The previous time after the lady had rendered services I told her
'I'm that good you should be paying me'
She then invited her pimp to rearrange my face if I didn't pay up.
Hard to believe I've been accused of lacking self confidence isn't it?0 -
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''Tristram in Stoke Central comes a close second. ''
a prediction for 2020 if Corbyn wins?0 -
Who's he?Danny565 said:
Carswell has set a precedent though, and isn't there recall procedures in place now which could be triggered by unhappy Labour voters in their constituencies if they defected?TheScreamingEagles said:
Any patriotic lion defecting to the Tories won't have to resign and fight a by-election.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label. I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
Austerity and all that jazz, so no needs for a costly by election.
Any traitorous pig dog defecting from the Tories has to fight a by election because the Tories won a mandate in May and they are repudiating that mandate.
IMO, of all the likely defectors, the only one who would have a chance of holding their seat as a Tory is John Woodcock.0 -
I thought the deadline was 3 hours ago!Plato said:Tick Tock - only 3 mins left...
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1982 by-elections footage that I uploaded recently, including Jenkins winning in Hillhead:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVKIFfwWRg80 -
Couldn't any defector argue with more justice than usual that the party had abandoned the platform on which they had been elected rather than the other way around?Danny565 said:
Carswell has set a precedent though, and isn't there recall procedures in place now which could be triggered by unhappy Labour voters in their constituencies if they defected?TheScreamingEagles said:
Any patriotic lion defecting to the Tories won't have to resign and fight a by-election.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label. I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
Austerity and all that jazz, so no needs for a costly by election.
Any traitorous pig dog defecting from the Tories has to fight a by election because the Tories won a mandate in May and they are repudiating that mandate.
IMO, of all the likely defectors, the only one who would have a chance of holding their seat as a Tory is John Woodcock.0 -
Last minute Corbynytes trying to vote crashed the system so they extended it by 3 hours.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
" That experience, however, resulted in the [Liberal Democrats] being nearly wiped out in the 2015 election. They look unlikely to be significant political players again any time soon."
Unless Corbyn wins the Labour leadership, in which case the Lib Dems will have a huge empty space to move into. All it takes is a convenient by-election in a safe Labour seat, and hey presto, it's like Eastbourne 1990 all over again. The Lib Dem victory in Eastbourne happened despite the Lib Dems being at a low level in the national opinion polls.0 -
It's not utter rubbish at all. We would consider armed attacks upon the Bahraini, Saudi, or Qatari regimes that could or could not harm civilians to be terrorist attacks. We would consider similar attacks on the current Syrian or previous Libyan regimes to be acts of revolution. There's no objective difference in repression (except that the Syrian regime is considerably less oppressive). The language of terrorism is geopolitical aims dressed up as moral outrage.Cyclefree said:
What utter rubbish.Luckyguy1983 said:
No there isn't. The degree to which a regime is oppressive is also entirely subjective.david_herdson said:
The designation is subjective but there's a clear difference between groups which are driven to use violence in an oppressive regime that offers no alternative but are willing to talk if that alternative is offered, and groups which use violence as a means of imposing a settlement on a people.Luckyguy1983 said:
Hamas are just an armed group. Terrorists, revolutionaries, insurgents, freedom fighters - the designation is entirely subjective. Most of the groups we support in Syria are worse - and those are the nicer ones.JEO said:
Quite. It was the Jeremy Corbyn's of this world that were trying get on with Germany by appealing to the Nazis better nature. Just as the man himself does with Chavez and Hamas.Mortimer said:
Shame that she didn't recognise:Roger said:Bob
"My only worry is that Corbs may prove massively more popular with the wider electorate than anyone ever envisaged....."
I was introduced to an 86 year old woman in a cafe this morning with a strong German/Austrian accent. She came to the UK from Vienna in '48 and regaled me with stories of how the Austrians were worse than the Germans and how to this day they're still racists who refuse to accept their history.
She felt great affection for the English. For their friendliness and lack of corruption. She also hated the Tories with a passion almost equalling her loathing for her ex compatriots. She joined the Lib Dems because of Blair and has stuffed envelopes for them when required ever since.
She said if Corbyn won the leadership she would rejoin Labour and die happy!
It almost tempted me to pay my £3
- it was a Tory administration that declared war on Germany
- it was a Tory PM who won the war
- the majority of her years of living in England have been under Tory rule
I'd be pretty thankful to the Tories in that situation.0 -
My order too. I suspect Kendall will be first out, but a strong showing will help the fightback. And at least I am a former Labour member!; could see myself back under a suitable leader!Pulpstar said:
I've registered too - may well go with that option myselfCharles said:
I've just registered. Will support Kendall, as the best option for the country, and probably Jezza #2 as if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well It were done quickly.Pulpstar said:The question of the day is do I register for Jezza .... ?
In my view Burnham or Cooper would resolve nothing; in 2020 we will be where we are today, and Labour still won't be an effective opposition.
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The legislation is here: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25/pdfs/ukpga_20150025_en.pdfDanny565 said:
Carswell has set a precedent though, and isn't there recall procedures in place now which could be triggered by unhappy Labour voters in their constituencies if they defected?TheScreamingEagles said:
Any patriotic lion defecting to the Tories won't have to resign and fight a by-election.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label. I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
Austerity and all that jazz, so no needs for a costly by election.
Any traitorous pig dog defecting from the Tories has to fight a by election because the Tories won a mandate in May and they are repudiating that mandate.
IMO, of all the likely defectors, the only one who would have a chance of holding their seat as a Tory is John Woodcock.
From skimming it as far as I can tell, the only 3 situations recall applies to is if an MP has a criminal conviction, if they have been suspended from the house or if they have been caught fiddling expenses.
Nothing in there about defections as I can see.0 -
The Co-operative Party is a separate body which has a working agreement with Labour: the Co-op doesn't put up candidates against Labour, and Labour doesn't object to candidates identifying with both. MPs who do so will be motivated by a stronger than average belief that the way forward for industry is to encourage more co-operative enterprises (also, the Co-op may help out a bit with nominations and campaign contributions).Sunil_Prasannan said:What is the relationship between the Co-operative Party and Labour? Why do some MPs describe themselves as "Labour Co-op"?
I'm a member of both but didn't seek the Co-op label as I couldn't honestly say I was much involved with that side of things and would really only have been doing it for the possible support.0 -
I just knew I could rely on you to provide an entirely unbiased and "Focused" appreciation.Icarus said:
You should have upgraded to the Fiat 600 - the seats reclined. And then we got a couple of 850 coupes!!!JackW said:
I confess to some disappointment that this otherwise excellent piece by @Antifrank only concerns itself with recent living memory for some of the more vintage members of PB.GIN1138 said:WOW! 150 years of center left splits and JackW remember's it all! :O
And whilst musing on vintage members last night Mrs JackW emitted a little memory sigh at the current Fiat 500 "little blue pill" TV advert and then cast a longing glance a moi.
Welcome back Jack - Whilst you have been away the Liberals have been keeping their heads down but I am worried that the Labour Party might just be thinking of growing a pair and actually take over from us as the Radical Party.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
A cunning piece, Mr. Antifrank. I wonder if the iconoclasts and iconodules of the Eastern Roman Empire would also be an apt historical comparison.0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: Jeremy Corbyn is in third in Bassetlaw says John Mann on Sky now. Says London joiners "are representative of very little in society" (gulp)0
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Thanks!GarethoftheVale2 said:
The legislation is here: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25/pdfs/ukpga_20150025_en.pdfDanny565 said:
Carswell has set a precedent though, and isn't there recall procedures in place now which could be triggered by unhappy Labour voters in their constituencies if they defected?TheScreamingEagles said:
Any patriotic lion defecting to the Tories won't have to resign and fight a by-election.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label. I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
Austerity and all that jazz, so no needs for a costly by election.
Any traitorous pig dog defecting from the Tories has to fight a by election because the Tories won a mandate in May and they are repudiating that mandate.
IMO, of all the likely defectors, the only one who would have a chance of holding their seat as a Tory is John Woodcock.
From skimming it as far as I can tell, the only 3 situations recall applies to is if an MP has a criminal conviction, if they have been suspended from the house or if they have been caught fiddling expenses.
Nothing in there about defections as I can see.
How unsatisfactory though. Switching party allegiances should surely be one of the main triggers.0 -
John Mann MP: there'll be no split, but whoever wins will have to prove they're a "winner"... to remain as Labour leader.
He then went on to list all the elections in 2016.0 -
Danny565 said:
Thanks!GarethoftheVale2 said:
The legislation is here: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25/pdfs/ukpga_20150025_en.pdfDanny565 said:
Carswell has set a precedent though, and isn't there recall procedures in place now which could be triggered by unhappy Labour voters in their constituencies if they defected?TheScreamingEagles said:
Any patriotic lion defecting to the Tories won't have to resign and fight a by-election.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label. I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
Austerity and all that jazz, so no needs for a costly by election.
Any traitorous pig dog defecting from the Tories has to fight a by election because the Tories won a mandate in May and they are repudiating that mandate.
IMO, of all the likely defectors, the only one who would have a chance of holding their seat as a Tory is John Woodcock.
From skimming it as far as I can tell, the only 3 situations recall applies to is if an MP has a criminal conviction, if they have been suspended from the house or if they have been caught fiddling expenses.
Nothing in there about defections as I can see.
How unsatisfactory though. Switching party allegiances should surely be one of the main triggers.
Why? You vote for the person, not the party.
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@stvharry: Registration to vote in the #labourleadership is now closed. The Die is Cast0
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We now enter Phase 3 of the ‘AnyonebutCorbyn’ campaign. Fire up the shredding machines.TheScreamingEagles said:@stvharry: Registration to vote in the #labourleadership is now closed. The Die is Cast
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I once visited a brothel with a couple of friends, we played pool (Well me and John did) whilst our other friend used the 'services' provided. The pimp looked a strong type.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes after my last time in a whorehouse.JackW said:
You feel the need to go disguised ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not for the first time I feel like a Nun in a whorehouse.
The previous time after the lady had rendered services I told her
'I'm that good you should be paying me'
She then invited her pimp to rearrange my face if I didn't pay up.
Hard to believe I've been accused of lacking self confidence isn't it?0 -
So are labour going to cross the Rubicon and elect JC0
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Sure, there’s a respectable case for more public spending. But it is sad that this is what the left, even on its own terms, has come to: vote for us and the government will spend more and run more stuff (or don’t vote for us, we don’t care).
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/blairites-have-forgotten-how-win
In place of a vision, the left is against stuff. It’s against austerity. It’s against Tories – though mysteriously uninterested in unseating them – and it’s definitely against Tony Blair. This last is why the word “Blairites” has featured so ubiquitously in the election, despite there being so few of them, and despite the ones that do exist refusing to accept the label.
Blairites figure in Labour’s mythology the same way immigrants do in Ukip’s: as a metonym for multiple ills. Ukip does best in areas of the country where the are very few immigrants. Similarly, the Labour party, having purged itself of Blairites, talks about little else.0 -
Good afternoon young Nick.NickPalmer said:
The Co-operative Party is a separate body which has a working agreement with Labour: the Co-op doesn't put up candidates against Labour, and Labour doesn't object to candidates identifying with both. MPs who do so will be motivated by a stronger than average belief that the way forward for industry is to encourage more co-operative enterprises (also, the Co-op may help out a bit with nominations and campaign contributions).Sunil_Prasannan said:What is the relationship between the Co-operative Party and Labour? Why do some MPs describe themselves as "Labour Co-op"?
I'm a member of both but didn't seek the Co-op label as I couldn't honestly say I was much involved with that side of things and would really only have been doing it for the possible support.
I noted your post this morning indicating that you've moved on from seeking election to the Commons. Good luck in your future endeavours.
If you have the time might you post an overview of how you saw the final days of the election in Broxtowe ?
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A Very British Brothel is very amusing docu http://www.channel4.com/programmes/a-very-british-brothelPulpstar said:
I once visited a brothel with a couple of friends, we played pool (Well me and John did) whilst our other friend used the 'services' provided. The pimp looked a strong type.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes after my last time in a whorehouse.JackW said:
You feel the need to go disguised ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not for the first time I feel like a Nun in a whorehouse.
The previous time after the lady had rendered services I told her
'I'm that good you should be paying me'
She then invited her pimp to rearrange my face if I didn't pay up.
Hard to believe I've been accused of lacking self confidence isn't it?0 -
A by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central would be interesting if Tristram decides to throw in the towel.0
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A great line there.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/blairites-have-forgotten-how-winScott_P said:Sure, there’s a respectable case for more public spending. But it is sad that this is what the left, even on its own terms, has come to: vote for us and the government will spend more and run more stuff (or don’t vote for us, we don’t care).
In place of a vision, the left is against stuff. It’s against austerity. It’s against Tories – though mysteriously uninterested in unseating them – and it’s definitely against Tony Blair. This last is why the word “Blairites” has featured so ubiquitously in the election, despite there being so few of them, and despite the ones that do exist refusing to accept the label.
Blairites figure in Labour’s mythology the same way immigrants do in Ukip’s: as a metonym for multiple ills. Ukip does best in areas of the country where the are very few immigrants. Similarly, the Labour party, having purged itself of Blairites, talks about little else.
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As Cameron's predecessor in Witney showed, defectors probably get nice safe seats elsewhere I believe, were that unlikely scenario ever to occur. The presumed pressure to resign and fight a by-election a la the UKIP examples would be tough, but presumably survivable.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
Edit: Oops, about 20 minutes behind events.
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Hmm it didn't seem massively British, more an EU freedom of movement exercise iirc.Plato said:A Very British Brothel is very amusing docu http://www.channel4.com/programmes/a-very-british-brothel
Pulpstar said:
I once visited a brothel with a couple of friends, we played pool (Well me and John did) whilst our other friend used the 'services' provided. The pimp looked a strong type.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes after my last time in a whorehouse.JackW said:
You feel the need to go disguised ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not for the first time I feel like a Nun in a whorehouse.
The previous time after the lady had rendered services I told her
'I'm that good you should be paying me'
She then invited her pimp to rearrange my face if I didn't pay up.
Hard to believe I've been accused of lacking self confidence isn't it?0 -
Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?0
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A by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central would be interesting if Tristram decides to throw in the towel.
I bet Tristram would get on famously with David Cameron, if he doesn;t already. Inner circle material0 -
Fantastic.
I for one had never heard of the Adullamites, despite supposedly studying that period in school.
The SDP story was somewhat closer to my heart. At the time it seemed inevitable that it was going to replace the Labour party with a centre left party that cared about both people and economics. It's failure is a salutary lesson although the Labour party is massively weaker now than it was then (as indeed are all the parties except the SNP and UKIP).
The problem I see is that raised by one of yesterday's threads. The Corbyn/Labour support is concentrated in the Cities and has about 180 safe seats. This leaves very little room for another centre left party unless the Tories veer wildly to the right again. Under Cameron and Osborne they have been doing the opposite.0 -
I'm not sure the ukip MO is to blanket email labour MPs inviting them to jump shipLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't think they are, because I'm on their mailing list and I haven't had any emails about it that I recall. But I think it's all to the good, Labour supporters are being barraged by communication at the moment, now's not a good time to start firing UKIP messages at them too.blackburn63 said:
How do you know they're not? Carswell and Reckless both came out of the blue.watford30 said:
UKIP should be seizing the opportunity to get these people on board, whilst Labour are in disarray. But they're not. Whatever became of Farage?isam said:The Labour Party was set up to fight for the rights of the English working class. A hundred years on they are chiefly responsible for that group having their wages undercut or being put on the dole by cheap migrant labour while the party uses free market philosophy to justify it. In addition, the working class then have their socially conservative thoughts reclassified as bigotry by those who were meant to be on their side. That's why the Labour Party is in pieces
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Well put,these modern labour politicians have it in they head that we must be the world labour party.isam said:The Labour Party was set up to fight for the rights of the English working class. A hundred years on they are chiefly responsible for that group having their wages undercut or being put on the dole by cheap migrant labour while the party uses free market philosophy to justify it. In addition, the working class then have their socially conservative thoughts reclassified as bigotry by those who were meant to be on their side. That's why the Labour Party is in pieces
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That really sounds like a confusing and circular arrangement. They're not really separate, it seems, given they have such an agreement with Labour, so it appears to just be like a club for particular Labour members, but why does that need a 'separate' party label, it's just like someone being on a particular wing of a party just slightly more formalised?NickPalmer said:
The Co-operative Party is a separate body which has a working agreement with Labour: the Co-op doesn't put up candidates against Labour, and Labour doesn't object to candidates identifying with both. MPs who do so will be motivated by a stronger than average belief that the way forward for industry is to encourage more co-operative enterprises (also, the Co-op may help out a bit with nominations and campaign contributions).Sunil_Prasannan said:What is the relationship between the Co-operative Party and Labour? Why do some MPs describe themselves as "Labour Co-op"?
I'm a member of both but didn't seek the Co-op label as I couldn't honestly say I was much involved with that side of things and would really only have been doing it for the possible support.
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Plato said:
A great line there.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/blairites-have-forgotten-how-winScott_P said:Sure, there’s a respectable case for more public spending. But it is sad that this is what the left, even on its own terms, has come to: vote for us and the government will spend more and run more stuff (or don’t vote for us, we don’t care).
In place of a vision, the left is against stuff. It’s against austerity. It’s against Tories – though mysteriously uninterested in unseating them – and it’s definitely against Tony Blair. This last is why the word “Blairites” has featured so ubiquitously in the election, despite there being so few of them, and despite the ones that do exist refusing to accept the label.
Blairites figure in Labour’s mythology the same way immigrants do in Ukip’s: as a metonym for multiple ills. Ukip does best in areas of the country where the are very few immigrants. Similarly, the Labour party, having purged itself of Blairites, talks about little else.
But it's not true in the UKIP case. Once you account for demographics and income levels, UKIP do better in London than most places. Every time this fact about UKIP is used to claim this idea that it's people less exposed to immigration that vote UKIP, it is dismantled. Yet it is used again and again and again. It's almost as the left exists in a bubble where they do not hear arguments that go against established beliefs. I guess that explains why Jeremy Corbyn is about to become Labour leader.0 -
A second Labour election would be a wondrous thing.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?
I fully intend to 'do my bit' to try and make it happen providing Corbyn gets in.0 -
Love the reply from the ad bod:JEO said:Reading that article about Tessa Jowell's new advertising policy, it describes banned images showing 'unrealistic bodies' for women? Would she also ban the same for male bodies that would need three years of a dedicated bodybuilding program? Which female bodies in adverts is she talking about? If it's the beach body advert, it was merely a woman of healthy BMI and a moderate exercise regime. Are we now at the stage where public policy sees the results of a healthy diet and biweekly exercise as 'unrealistic'?
"Ian Twinn, of the Incorporated Society of British Advertisers, also objected saying it was "not clear" what Dame Tessa meant by "sexist", adding: "Is she asking for obesity to be normalised?""
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Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
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Simon Danczuk: "Corbyn will be ousted as leader on day one" if elected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11797857/Jeremy-Corbyn-will-be-ousted-on-day-one-as-leader-Labour-MP-Simon-Danczuk-warns.html
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I don't think the proposal was to blanket Labour MPs, but Labour voters.blackburn63 said:
I'm not sure the ukip MO is to blanket email labour MPs inviting them to jump shipLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't think they are, because I'm on their mailing list and I haven't had any emails about it that I recall. But I think it's all to the good, Labour supporters are being barraged by communication at the moment, now's not a good time to start firing UKIP messages at them too.blackburn63 said:
How do you know they're not? Carswell and Reckless both came out of the blue.watford30 said:
UKIP should be seizing the opportunity to get these people on board, whilst Labour are in disarray. But they're not. Whatever became of Farage?isam said:The Labour Party was set up to fight for the rights of the English working class. A hundred years on they are chiefly responsible for that group having their wages undercut or being put on the dole by cheap migrant labour while the party uses free market philosophy to justify it. In addition, the working class then have their socially conservative thoughts reclassified as bigotry by those who were meant to be on their side. That's why the Labour Party is in pieces
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Not safe for Labour necessarily, it could be won by a third party, but surely off-limits for the Tories (or any new group affiliated with the Tories)?foxinsoxuk said:
Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.Danny565 said:Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.
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The headline doesn't match the story.AndyJS said:Simon Danczuk: "Corbyn will be ousted as leader on day one" if elected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11797857/Jeremy-Corbyn-will-be-ousted-on-day-one-as-leader-Labour-MP-Simon-Danczuk-warns.html
That said, Simon Danczuk is being reckless in his opposition to Jeremy Corbyn. He's going to find it hard to eat sufficient humble pie to make it easy for him to remain within the Labour whip if Jeremy Corbyn gets elected.0 -
Scott_P: it's interesting how columnists keep repeating the thing about UKIP supporters not living in the areas with the greatest immigrants as if this were evidence of their lack of logic on the subject of immigration when in fact it's supremely logical for people who are against immigration to see that it is happening elsewhere and to not want it to happen in their area. If you're against something, you don't wait for it to happen in your area and then make a fuss about it — you try and do something about it before it happens in your area.0
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Luckyguy1983 said:kle4 said:
Please tell me they won't ban super attractive people from TV shows on the basis that most people cannot attain that standard, and so it is unrealistic! I guess it only applies to advertising?JEO said:Reading that article about Tessa Jowell's new advertising policy, it describes banned images showing 'unrealistic bodies' for women? Would she also ban the same for male bodies that would need three years of a dedicated bodybuilding program? Which female bodies in adverts is she talking about? If it's the beach body advert, it was merely a woman of healthy BMI and a moderate exercise regime. Are we now at the stage where public policy sees the results of a healthy diet and biweekly exercise as 'unrealistic'?
Silly stuff. Advertisters aren't allowed to entice us, shame us, or whatever? Why is potentially causing offence to some individuals, who must surely be hyper-sensitive, require the banning of such things from everyone, rather than if it is bad for business (by actually being offensive) it just failing as a campaign?Luckyguy1983 said:kle4 said:JEO said:
Silly stuff. Advertisters aren't allowed to entice us, shame us, or whatever? Why is potentially causing offence to some individuals, who must surely be hyper-sensitive, require the banning of such things from everyone, rather than if it is bad for business (by actually being offensive) it just failing as a campaign?Luckyguy1983 said:
Totally agree (and sorry for misunderstanding you in the previous thread). And not just silly but dangerous - being overweight is symptomatic of a health problem. As are most things traditionally regarded as 'ugly'. In my opinion, some people are extremely blessed, and some are plainer, but ugliness is a sign of ill health, and for that reason should not be seen as the 'new average' as many seem to be pushing for.kle4 said:
Please tell me they won't ban super attractive people from TV shows on the basis that most people cannot attain that standard, and so it is unrealistic! I guess it only applies to advertising?JEO said:
Silly stuff. Advertisters aren't allowed to entice us, shame us, or whatever? Why is potentially causing offence to some individuals, who must surely be hyper-sensitive, require the banning of such things from everyone, rather than if it is bad for business (by actually being offensive) it just failing as a campaign?
Being ugly is a sign of illness!? Really?? What twaddle.
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Exactly. Then again White Flight isn't happening either...AndyJS said:
Scott_P: it's interesting how columnists keep repeating the thing about UKIP supporters not living in the areas with the greatest immigrants as if this were evidence of their lack of logic on the subject of immigration when in fact it's supremely logical for people who are against immigration to see that it is happening elsewhere and to not want it to happen in their area. If you're against something, you don't wait for it to happen in your area and then make a fuss about it — you try and do something about it before it happens in your area.
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The Blairites have Dan Jarvis who has positioned himself well to be the next Labour leader and the next contest could be in as little as two or three years. They'll continue to bide their time0
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I feel rather sorry for him, I can't help feeling his personal circumstances are colouring his commonsense - leading to rather a lot of outbursts/oversharing.antifrank said:
The headline doesn't match the story.AndyJS said:Simon Danczuk: "Corbyn will be ousted as leader on day one" if elected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11797857/Jeremy-Corbyn-will-be-ousted-on-day-one-as-leader-Labour-MP-Simon-Danczuk-warns.html
That said, Simon Danczuk is being reckless in his opposition to Jeremy Corbyn. He's going to find it hard to eat sufficient humble pie to make it easy for him to remain within the Labour whip if Jeremy Corbyn gets elected.0 -
Well this will be entertaining. Full out civil war, as the Labour Party implodes.AndyJS said:Simon Danczuk: "Corbyn will be ousted as leader on day one" if elected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11797857/Jeremy-Corbyn-will-be-ousted-on-day-one-as-leader-Labour-MP-Simon-Danczuk-warns.html0 -
It's a Russian 'thing'.Cyclefree said:Luckyguy1983 said:kle4 said:
Please tell me they won't ban super attractive people from TV shows on the basis that most people cannot attain that standard, and so it is unrealistic! I guess it only applies to advertising?JEO said:Reading that article about Tessa Jowell's new advertising policy, it describes banned images showing 'unrealistic bodies' for women? Would she also ban the same for male bodies that would need three years of a dedicated bodybuilding program? Which female bodies in adverts is she talking about? If it's the beach body advert, it was merely a woman of healthy BMI and a moderate exercise regime. Are we now at the stage where public policy sees the results of a healthy diet and biweekly exercise as 'unrealistic'?
Silly stuff. Advertisters aren't allowed to entice us, shame us, or whatever? Why is potentially causing offence to some individuals, who must surely be hyper-sensitive, require the banning of such things from everyone, rather than if it is bad for business (by actually being offensive) it just failing as a campaign?Luckyguy1983 said:kle4 said:JEO said:
Silly stuff. Advertisters aren't allowed to entice us, shame us, or whatever? Why is potentially causing offence to some individuals, who must surely be hyper-sensitive, require the banning of such things from everyone, rather than if it is bad for business (by actually being offensive) it just failing as a campaign?Luckyguy1983 said:
Totally agree (and sorry for misunderstanding you in the previous thread). And not just silly but dangerous - being overweight is symptomatic of a health problem. As are most things traditionally regarded as 'ugly'. In my opinion, some people are extremely blessed, and some are plainer, but ugliness is a sign of ill health, and for that reason should not be seen as the 'new average' as many seem to be pushing for.kle4 said:
Please tell me they won't ban super attractive people from TV shows on the basis that most people cannot attain that standard, and so it is unrealistic! I guess it only applies to advertising?JEO said:
Silly stuff. Advertisters aren't allowed to entice us, shame us, or whatever? Why is potentially causing offence to some individuals, who must surely be hyper-sensitive, require the banning of such things from everyone, rather than if it is bad for business (by actually being offensive) it just failing as a campaign?
Being ugly is a sign of illness!? Really?? What twaddle.0 -
Danczuk should try to memorize his own party's leadership rules...0
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That's one aspect I'm looking at.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?
Like Caesar, I think Corbyn's legacy might last for centuries and Corbyn's surname becomes a byword for awesome leaders and Kings.0 -
Mr. Eagles, kings? You sure about that?
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People who don't like high levels of immigration tend to move out of areas where there are high levels of immigration. That leaves the immigrants and people who welcome high levels of immigration, who, strangely enough, tend not to vote UKIP.AndyJS said:Scott_P: it's interesting how columnists keep repeating the thing about UKIP supporters not living in the areas with the greatest immigrants as if this were evidence of their lack of logic on the subject of immigration when in fact it's supremely logical for people who are against immigration to see that it is happening elsewhere and to not want it to happen in their area. If you're against something, you don't wait for it to happen in your area and then make a fuss about it — you try and do something about it before it happens in your area.
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No it was about MP defections, can't see it myself.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't think the proposal was to blanket Labour MPs, but Labour voters.blackburn63 said:
I'm not sure the ukip MO is to blanket email labour MPs inviting them to jump shipLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't think they are, because I'm on their mailing list and I haven't had any emails about it that I recall. But I think it's all to the good, Labour supporters are being barraged by communication at the moment, now's not a good time to start firing UKIP messages at them too.blackburn63 said:
How do you know they're not? Carswell and Reckless both came out of the blue.watford30 said:
UKIP should be seizing the opportunity to get these people on board, whilst Labour are in disarray. But they're not. Whatever became of Farage?isam said:The Labour Party was set up to fight for the rights of the English working class. A hundred years on they are chiefly responsible for that group having their wages undercut or being put on the dole by cheap migrant labour while the party uses free market philosophy to justify it. In addition, the working class then have their socially conservative thoughts reclassified as bigotry by those who were meant to be on their side. That's why the Labour Party is in pieces
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If you went the other way on the subject, you might want to reference 69AD.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's one aspect I'm looking at.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?
Like Caesar, I think Corbyn's legacy might last for centuries and Corbyn's surname becomes a byword for awesome leaders and Kings.0 -
Or 238 AD.antifrank said:
If you went the other way on the subject, you might want to reference 69AD.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's one aspect I'm looking at.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?
Like Caesar, I think Corbyn's legacy might last for centuries and Corbyn's surname becomes a byword for awesome leaders and Kings.0 -
Well putSean_F said:
People who don't like high levels of immigration tend to move out of areas where there are high levels of immigration. That leaves the immigrants and people who welcome high levels of immigration, who, strangely enough, tend not to vote UKIP.AndyJS said:Scott_P: it's interesting how columnists keep repeating the thing about UKIP supporters not living in the areas with the greatest immigrants as if this were evidence of their lack of logic on the subject of immigration when in fact it's supremely logical for people who are against immigration to see that it is happening elsewhere and to not want it to happen in their area. If you're against something, you don't wait for it to happen in your area and then make a fuss about it — you try and do something about it before it happens in your area.
Its interesting to see Conservatives peddle the ridiculously easily refutable nonsense that tim used to try and mislead people with.
Look at the demographic in West Ham, East Ham & Barking, then look at the UKIP vote in Dagenham & Rainham, Hornchurch & Upminster, & Thurrock-1 -
Mr. F, Maximinus was a damned fool. I do wonder how things would've gone had Alexander Severus survived.0
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Could be more 37 AD for Labour this...Sean_F said:
Or 238 AD.antifrank said:
If you went the other way on the subject, you might want to reference 69AD.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's one aspect I'm looking at.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?
Like Caesar, I think Corbyn's legacy might last for centuries and Corbyn's surname becomes a byword for awesome leaders and Kings.0 -
On Jowell:
How is the advert sexist? There's a shirtless bloke ad too. That's maximum sexual equality.
Unless she's arguing that the girl not being topless is sexist.0 -
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(Two threads ago)
What does "JICBALHHPEITCBWIWHWNBPM" mean?0 -
''The Blairites have Dan Jarvis who has positioned himself well to be the next Labour leader and the next contest could be in as little as two or three years. They'll continue to bide their time.''
It's not that simple. For those two or three years the Blairites will have to toe the party line. That means defending Corbyn and his nonsense in front of press, on the doorstep. Stuff they don;t believe in and will have to row back on dramatically if Corbyn is deposed.
Some will I guess, some won't.0 -
My proposal was for UKIP to take advantage of the chaos and get disaffected Labour WWC voters on board.blackburn63 said:
No it was about MP defections, can't see it myself.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't think the proposal was to blanket Labour MPs, but Labour voters.blackburn63 said:
I'm not sure the ukip MO is to blanket email labour MPs inviting them to jump shipLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't think they are, because I'm on their mailing list and I haven't had any emails about it that I recall. But I think it's all to the good, Labour supporters are being barraged by communication at the moment, now's not a good time to start firing UKIP messages at them too.blackburn63 said:
How do you know they're not? Carswell and Reckless both came out of the blue.watford30 said:
UKIP should be seizing the opportunity to get these people on board, whilst Labour are in disarray. But they're not. Whatever became of Farage?isam said:The Labour Party was set up to fight for the rights of the English working class. A hundred years on they are chiefly responsible for that group having their wages undercut or being put on the dole by cheap migrant labour while the party uses free market philosophy to justify it. In addition, the working class then have their socially conservative thoughts reclassified as bigotry by those who were meant to be on their side. That's why the Labour Party is in pieces
I can't see too many of them embracing Corbyn's 'let the immigrants in, and boot NATO out' policies.
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It stands forJohnLoony said:(Two threads ago)
What does "JICBALHHPEITCBWIWHWNBPM" mean?
"The Last Thing This Site Needs is A Ludicrous Acronym That New Posters and Lurkers Can't Understand and Even If You Think You are Being Ironic You are Not".
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That's the last line of my piece.antifrank said:
If you went the other way on the subject, you might want to reference 69AD.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's one aspect I'm looking at.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?
Like Caesar, I think Corbyn's legacy might last for centuries and Corbyn's surname becomes a byword for awesome leaders and Kings.0 -
Or NAMBLA (H/T The Daily Show)TheWhiteRabbit said:It stands for
"The Last Thing This Site Needs is A Ludicrous Acronym That New Posters and Lurkers Can't Understand and Even If You Think You are Being Ironic You are Not".0 -
Or disappear into the Teutoburger Wald.TheScreamingEagles said:So are labour going to cross the Rubicon and elect JC
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I suspect he'll find the sudden stress of being Leader at the age of 67 - a far more demanding and high profile job - very tiring.. On the other hand he might surprise everyone and like it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?
My guess is he'll retire from ill health..0 -
Mr. Madasafish, Antigonus Monopthalmus did his best work in his sixties and seventies.
Admittedly, his career ended when he got javelined to death at the Battle of Ipsus, but all political careers end in failure.0 -
Yes I agree. Not sure what ukip are cooking up tbh, the EU vote is centre stage, difficult to plan beyond that.watford30 said:
My proposal was for UKIP to take advantage of the chaos and get disaffected Labour WWC voters on board.blackburn63 said:
No it was about MP defections, can't see it myself.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't think the proposal was to blanket Labour MPs, but Labour voters.blackburn63 said:
I'm not sure the ukip MO is to blanket email labour MPs inviting them to jump shipLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't think they are, because I'm on their mailing list and I haven't had any emails about it that I recall. But I think it's all to the good, Labour supporters are being barraged by communication at the moment, now's not a good time to start firing UKIP messages at them too.blackburn63 said:
How do you know they're not? Carswell and Reckless both came out of the blue.watford30 said:
UKIP should be seizing the opportunity to get these people on board, whilst Labour are in disarray. But they're not. Whatever became of Farage?isam said:The Labour Party was set up to fight for the rights of the English working class. A hundred years on they are chiefly responsible for that group having their wages undercut or being put on the dole by cheap migrant labour while the party uses free market philosophy to justify it. In addition, the working class then have their socially conservative thoughts reclassified as bigotry by those who were meant to be on their side. That's why the Labour Party is in pieces
I can't see too many of them embracing Corbyn's 'let the immigrants in, and boot NATO out' policies.
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Oh FFS
@SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process0 -
Mr. P, the unfairness being their own incompetence?
Corbyn wouldn't be on the ballot without the other 3's supporters backing him.0 -
The opening line to my piece.
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator0 -
There may well be an element of "White flight" to Essex, but it does not account for the strong kipper support in Sunderland for example. There is no single explanation for the rise of the kippers.Sean_F said:
People who don't like high levels of immigration tend to move out of areas where there are high levels of immigration. That leaves the immigrants and people who welcome high levels of immigration, who, strangely enough, tend not to vote UKIP.AndyJS said:Scott_P: it's interesting how columnists keep repeating the thing about UKIP supporters not living in the areas with the greatest immigrants as if this were evidence of their lack of logic on the subject of immigration when in fact it's supremely logical for people who are against immigration to see that it is happening elsewhere and to not want it to happen in their area. If you're against something, you don't wait for it to happen in your area and then make a fuss about it — you try and do something about it before it happens in your area.
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If it is all scrapped will my stake on HH payout? I do hope so...Scott_P said:Oh FFS
@SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process0 -
TSE, it would be entirely consistent and appropriate though. They are both naysayers and they are both covered in hair. However, Incitatus was no doubt well groomed on a daily basis.TheScreamingEagles said:The opening line to my piece.
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator0 -
Does that make Owen Jones the horse whisperer?TheScreamingEagles said:The opening line to my piece.
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator0 -
Hillary Clinton trailing Bernie "America's Corbyn" Sanders in New Hampshire poll:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/12/new-poll-bernie-sanders-ahead-hillary-clinton-new-hampshire0 -
Sounds like sour grapes – and again, far too late in the day to start moaning now. #moronsScott_P said:Oh FFS
@SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process0 -
Incitatus was rubbish compared to Bucephalus.0
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Ha Ha.Scott_P said:Oh FFS
@SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process
'Dear Labour, it's not fair. Because we're going to lose, using a system under which we were happy to win.'
Well, if they want to drive a few more voters towards Corbyn...0 -
No doubt there will be others jockeying for position!ydoethur said:
TSE, it would be entirely consistent and appropriate though. They are both naysayers and they are both covered in hair. However, Incitatus was no doubt well groomed on a daily basis.TheScreamingEagles said:The opening line to my piece.
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator0 -
I've just had a text thanking me for signing up as a Labour supporter 0
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Sanders vs Trump.Danny565 said:Hillary Clinton trailing Bernie "America's Corbyn" Sanders in New Hampshire poll:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/12/new-poll-bernie-sanders-ahead-hillary-clinton-new-hampshire
That would be fun!0 -
That should be the basis of your next threadantifrank said:
Does that make Owen Jones the horse whisperer?TheScreamingEagles said:The opening line to my piece.
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator0 -
So the 1.5 or so on Corbyn is indeed good value. Nice to have it confirmed.Scott_P said:Oh FFS
@SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process0 -
Just the kind of childish petulance I'd expect from those three losers. pathetic.Scott_P said:Oh FFS
@SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process0 -
This is turning into a farce:
Labour will order infiltrators' votes to be removed even after they've been cast in the leadership election, party sources have revealed.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-remove-infiltrators-votes-after-6240207
The party will carry on vetting people right up until the September 10 voting deadline to stop 'stooges' and 'entryists' taking over the race.
Insiders say that means they will tell independent vote-counters to strip out individual ballots if they suspect foul play - for example if a Tory stooge mocks Labour by posting their paper on Twitter.
Sources insist the content of the votes themselves will remain anonymous, but say each ballot paper will still be linked to a voter's name.
That means although Labour won't know how someone has voted, Electoral Reform Services Ltd (ERS), which is organising the vote, can trace their ballot.
A Labour source told Mirror Online: "No ballot paper will go to someone who's not been verified, but the verification process goes on.
"We have big lists and we're constantly improving and updating those lists, and things may emerge once someone's received their ballot.
"We can then cancel their ballots. ERS will anonymise them but will be able to refer to the number that's been generated and remove them."
Basically this has become one big job-creation scheme for 78 people who are supposed to be "conducting" these checks.
But these numbers are staggering:As of yesterday 444,000 people had put down their names for the leadership ballot - just 194,000 of whom were Labour members before the election.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-remove-infiltrators-votes-after-6240207
They're made up of 282,000 paid-up members, 92,000 union affiliates and 70,000 registered supporters who've paid a £3 fee.
It's thought that number will have risen far higher by the extended registration deadline of 3pm today.
This means that Corbyn now has even more support than he had in the last YouGov poll given the higher propensity of new entrants to vote for him and unless Andy and Yvette pull a rabbit out of their hat, the entire verification exercise is a complete waste of time. A classic make-work scheme in true Labour style to herald the beginning of the Corbyn era.0
