politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Poll: Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win
Comments
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Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon 6m6 minutes ago
Man hosting Q&A with Blair (@mattforde) mentions Russell Brand. Blair chuckles mildly and says, "Is that a comedian thing?"
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago
Blair knifes Tom Watson - "It's important that the deputy is a woman, and whoever gets us away from machine politics" #blair20150 -
Very interesting and balanced report from MigrationWatch.
- Immigrants from India, Western Europe and the Anglosphere do better in terms of employment, wages and benefits claiming than the domestic population.
- Immigrants from Eastern Europe are better in employment, but worse on the other two
- Immigrants from Africa and the rest of the world are generally similar, but higher benefit claimants
- Immigrants from Immigrants from Pakistan and Bangladesh do worse across all three categories
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/1.42
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His luck may well run out around EU referendum time.TheScreamingEagles said:If Labour do elect Corbyn, it will confirm that Dave is the luckiest general since Hannibal
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That's a big chunk of the Left vote. Corbyn's success shouldn't be a surprise at all based on that profile.
I presume a lot of DMili backers have left too/backing Kendall now.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That's my fearSouthamObserver said:
His luck may well run out around EU referendum time.TheScreamingEagles said:If Labour do elect Corbyn, it will confirm that Dave is the luckiest general since Hannibal
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If either had stood it is unlikely Corbyn would have got the MP nominations he needed.TGOHF said:Would JC be in the lead if the following had stood ?
Chukka ?
Dan Jarvis ?
I'm thinking Yes, No.
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Those who joined the Labour party before the 2010 election
Corbyn 37%, Burnham 27%, Cooper 23%, Kendall 14%0 -
If anyone is interested in new/green energy, this review is downloadable from:
http://www.4thenergywave.co.uk/wp-content/plugins/datavisualisation/data/FuelCell-and-Hydrogen-Annual-Review-2015.pdf0 -
Much depends on who owns the Out campaign.SouthamObserver said:
His luck may well run out around EU referendum time.TheScreamingEagles said:If Labour do elect Corbyn, it will confirm that Dave is the luckiest general since Hannibal
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56% of those who voted for Ed Miliband in 2010 are now backing Corbyn in the first round.
19% of those who voted for David Miliband in 2010 are now backing Corbyn in the first round.0 -
"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.
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Key AV 2nd preferences:TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov data tables out
http://bit.ly/1KklK0b
Kendallites
55% --> Cooper
22% --> Burnham
6% --> Corbyn
18% WNV/DK
Cooperites
44% --> Burnham
22% --> Corbyn
15% --> Kendall
19% WNV/DK
Burnhamites:
52% --> Cooper
26% --> Corbyn
10% --> Kendall
13% WNV/DK
Corbynites:
40% --> Burnham
26% --> Cooper
5% --> Kendall
29% WNV/DK
Shy Kendall plus some focus on Corbyn during his campaign and this is still Yvette's to lose. The big danger is if Burnham gets positioned as the stop Corbyn candidate.0 -
Winning an election doesn't matter now to them, they just want to feel clean and pure...TGOHF said:"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.0 -
OT More science - not Martians
Large craters up to 100 metres across and 60 metres deep recently discovered on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia are caused by gas eruptions triggered by melting permafrost, according to Russian scientists. This is according to a report in the Siberian Times, which has given the latest results of research by teams sent to investigate the craters after they were first spotted in 2014
http://www.hazardexonthenet.net/article/97158/0 -
Ah, that's the sort of person you are. I won't bother with you in future then.Innocent_Abroad said:
None of us are "entitled" to anything on this board. We are all here as OGH's guests. Nor am I responsible for how I "come across" to you, Plato or anyone else. If you don't know where I stop and you start there are plenty of self-help organisations you can approach.JEO said:
Why do you need to be so rude? Plato is as entitled to give her views on something as any other forum member here. No-one is limited to only commenting on their party. If you think her analysis is wrong than point out why. Right now you just come across as trolling, and it is doing yourself no favours.Innocent_Abroad said:
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
Is there an ignore function I can use?0 -
Blairs political anntennae are not what they were. He fears Corbyn not just because of Corbyns dislike of the New Labour project, but also for being pillorried as a war criminal. Imagine Corbyn as LOTO during a debate on the Chilcott report...TGOHF said:Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon 6m6 minutes ago
Man hosting Q&A with Blair (@mattforde) mentions Russell Brand. Blair chuckles mildly and says, "Is that a comedian thing?"
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago
Blair knifes Tom Watson - "It's important that the deputy is a woman, and whoever gets us away from machine politics" #blair20150 -
So the Kendallites are breaking 2:1 in favour of Cooper instead of Burnham.Tissue_Price said:
Key AV 2nd preferences:TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov data tables out
http://bit.ly/1KklK0b
Kendallites
55% --> Cooper
22% --> Burnham
6% --> Corbyn
18% WNV/DK
Cooperites
44% --> Burnham
22% --> Corbyn
15% --> Kendall
19% WNV/DK
Burnhamites:
52% --> Cooper
26% --> Corbyn
10% --> Kendall
13% WNV/DK
Corbynites:
40% --> Burnham
26% --> Cooper
5% --> Kendall
29% WNV/DK
Shy Kendall plus some focus on Corbyn during his campaign and this is still Yvette's to lose. The big danger is if Burnham gets positioned as the stop Corbyn candidate.
That's another Andy Burnham's Mum HYUFD meme shot down.0 -
They're too angry with the baby-eating electorate.
@CD13 is right about the marriage counseling.
A lot of Labourites are now just telling the voters You Don't Like Us & We Don't Care.TGOHF said:"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.0 -
A Tory who voted for Labour when Blair was in charge. I would have thought she is exactly the sort of swing voter that Labour need to appeal to.Innocent_Abroad said:
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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Of course not. Why would Party members want to abandon their principles so that less than 1% of their number can swan around in ministerial limousines? It is a piece of the Labour soul to believe that their Party has only ever been in office, never in power. From that perspective not wanting to win is not only no big deal, it is rationality.TGOHF said:"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.
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I wonder how many of that 19% have forgotten which Miliband they actually voted for.TheScreamingEagles said:56% of those who voted for Ed Miliband in 2010 are now backing Corbyn in the first round.
19% of those who voted for David Miliband in 2010 are now backing in the first round.
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Liz may do better in the actual poll than some are forecasting. Unless the real enemy is the splitters rather than the Tories.TGOHF said:"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.0 -
Plato said:
And in all its glory - the leadership timetable. Plenty of time for all sort of shenanigans.
The full leadership election timetable, as agreed today by the NEC, is as follows:
...12 noon Wednesday 12 August Last date to join as member, affiliated supporter, or registered supporter
Friday 14 August Ballot mailing despatched
12 noon Thursday 10 September Ballot closes
Saturday 12 September Special conference to announce result
We really have seven and a half weeks of all this still to go.Slackbladder said:
He's already said he's wacking on NI for higher rate tax payers, and thats 'just' to pay for one policy.Pulpstar said:
It ain't going to be the rich that suffer if Corbyn gets in, it'll be the 20-50kers.Disraeli said:Following on from Blair, Corbyn will be giving a speech today. Should be interesting.
According to Labour list:
'Later this morning, Corbyn will be giving a speech in which he'll set out his vision for a "fairer, more productive economy". This will include cutting subsidies for businesses and proposing a more progressive tax system.'
In the meantime the government will have passed 100 days and set the agenda for the whole Parliament while Labour argue with each other. At least Corbyn and Kendall actually argue, Burnham and Cooper seem to be trying their level best to say nothing at all lest it cost them votes.0 -
What is this 'Chilcott report' you speak of? If such a thing existed and in theory had stopped gathering evidence many years ago and still the date of release was not set, why that would be the stuff of fantasy, surely?foxinsoxuk said:
Blairs political anntennae are not what they were. He fears Corbyn not just because of Corbyns dislike of the New Labour project, but also for being pillorried as a war criminal. Imagine Corbyn as LOTO during a debate on the Chilcott report...TGOHF said:Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon 6m6 minutes ago
Man hosting Q&A with Blair (@mattforde) mentions Russell Brand. Blair chuckles mildly and says, "Is that a comedian thing?"
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago
Blair knifes Tom Watson - "It's important that the deputy is a woman, and whoever gets us away from machine politics" #blair2015
Personally I think they're holding off until one of Blair's children becomes PM to try to release it, so it can be blocked.0 -
The subconscious is a wonderful thing.
Tony Blair OfficeVerified account
@tonyblairoffice
Tony Blair is in conservation with @mattforde
at @ProgressOnline this morning. Watch it live here: http://www.progressonline.org.uk/event/in-conversation-with-tony-blair/ …0 -
I fully accept that the "centre ground" in the English shire counties at least is to the right of Cameron and Osborne.Richard_Tyndall said:
A Tory who voted for Labour when Blair was in charge. I would have thought she is exactly the sort of swing voter that Labour need to appeal to.Innocent_Abroad said:
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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Unfortunately the Mayoralty is next May, not this September. Or that would have been a golden opportunityTissue_Price said:
NB from a betting perspective, the £2700 looking to back Jowell at 3.15 (next request is £4 @ 3.75!) is, ahem, "curious".Tissue_Price said:How does this affect the Labour nomination for London Mayor? Bearing in mind that (unless I'm mistaken) the ballot papers are going out simultaneously.
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There are many others in the queue before Labour gets to Plato. It's a long, long time before the party can start thinking about landslides.Richard_Tyndall said:
A Tory who voted for Labour when Blair was in charge. I would have thought she is exactly the sort of swing voter that Labour need to appeal to.Innocent_Abroad said:
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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Kendall should be 200/1 on these numbers.0
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Corbyn is peaking too early IMO0
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Kendall looks set to do even worse than worst predictions it seems?0
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Appears that women voters are not primarily supporting the female candidates and have a strong preference for JC - what did Plato say about those corduroys?Slackbladder said:
Winning an election doesn't matter now to them, they just want to feel clean and pure...TGOHF said:"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.
Also very strong support for JC from the Union affiliates and £3 members.0 -
If you download Greasemonkey [works on most browsers] and then download the linky from @edmundintokyo - https://github.com/edmundedgar/greasemonkey-widgets
@JEO Is there an ignore function I can use?
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Very good post. Explains very well the kind of hurdles a Corbyn-led party would face.GarethoftheVale2 said:
It is worth noting that the Con majority is higher than Green & LD put together. Realistically to win this seat Lab either needs to be taking a large chunk of the UKIP vote or they need direct Lab-Con switchers. Is Corbyn going to help with either of those?
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I think we need to apply a shy Kendall weighting to these polls.Tissue_Price said:Kendall should be 200/1 on these numbers.
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We need a judge led enquiry. We can call it the Nimoy Enquiry and it could take five years.Scott_P said:
@graemedownie: @paulwaugh God, now he's done it! Never mind upsetting @thesnp, be far more afraid of #trekkiesTheScreamingEagles said:OMG Tony Blair talked about Star Trek.
Blair: '2015 election was an election out of the 1980s. Like Star Trek or something.'
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These are revealing charts from that MigrationWatch report:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/images/BP367/figure-67.png
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/images/BP367/figure-69.png
46% of Somali families are claiming housing benefit!0 -
@xtophercook: Just had a chat with Labour MP about whether Jeremy Corbyn, as leader, would be deposed within a week or 6 weeks. (He thought a week.)0
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It was so long ago, I've almost forgotten we went to war in Iraq.kle4 said:
What is this 'Chilcott report' you speak of? If such a thing existed and in theory had stopped gathering evidence many years ago and still the date of release was not set, why that would be the stuff of fantasy, surely?foxinsoxuk said:
Blairs political anntennae are not what they were. He fears Corbyn not just because of Corbyns dislike of the New Labour project, but also for being pillorried as a war criminal. Imagine Corbyn as LOTO during a debate on the Chilcott report...TGOHF said:Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon 6m6 minutes ago
Man hosting Q&A with Blair (@mattforde) mentions Russell Brand. Blair chuckles mildly and says, "Is that a comedian thing?"
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago
Blair knifes Tom Watson - "It's important that the deputy is a woman, and whoever gets us away from machine politics" #blair2015
Personally I think they're holding off until one of Blair's children becomes PM to try to release it, so it can be blocked.0 -
It's the Milwall Party!!Plato said:They're too angry with the baby-eating electorate.
@CD13 is right about the marriage counseling.
A lot of Labourites are now just telling the voters You Don't Like Us & We Don't Care.TGOHF said:"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.
Tim Farron could turn out to be as lucky a general as Cameron, really hard not to see defections if JC wins.0 -
Well she is a Tory...TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we need to apply a shy Kendall weighting to these polls.Tissue_Price said:Kendall should be 200/1 on these numbers.
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Plato pointed out in another thread that she once voted Labour, but switched in 2007, and was ambivalent until more recently when she became nailed on conservative.Innocent_Abroad said:
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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The Tories for Corbyn ride out!Financier said:
Appears that women voters are not primarily supporting the female candidates and have a strong preference for JC - what did Plato say about those corduroys?Slackbladder said:
Winning an election doesn't matter now to them, they just want to feel clean and pure...TGOHF said:"Understand what it takes to win an election"
AB 30
YC 39
LK 63 (!)
JC 10 (!)
Only sane conclusion is that Labour DO NOT WANT TO WIN.
Also very strong support for JC from the Union affiliates and £3 members.0 -
Looking at the Guardian's live feed on the Blair speech I don't think there is one thing that I disagree with him on.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/22/tony-blairs-speech-on-the-future-of-labour-politics-live#block-55af559be4b0571ff35161620 -
Is said MP stupid? That sort of thing will only encourage the Corbyn campaigners.Scott_P said:@xtophercook: Just had a chat with Labour MP about whether Jeremy Corbyn, as leader, would be deposed within a week or 6 weeks. (He thought a week.)
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Tissue_Price said:
Well she is a Tory...TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we need to apply a shy Kendall weighting to these polls.Tissue_Price said:Kendall should be 200/1 on these numbers.
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@alstewitn: #Labourleadership Extraordinary @bbc5live phone-in:many want @jeremycorbyn more than #ge2020 victory & his support's more about the other 3.0
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Such a move would split the labour party forever. That would be a SDP v2 moment.Tissue_Price said:
Is said MP stupid? That sort of thing will only encourage the Corbyn campaigners.Scott_P said:@xtophercook: Just had a chat with Labour MP about whether Jeremy Corbyn, as leader, would be deposed within a week or 6 weeks. (He thought a week.)
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That final bit could be the key to how long Corbyn lasts as leader.Scott_P said:@alstewitn: #Labourleadership Extraordinary @bbc5live phone-in:many want @jeremycorbyn more than #ge2020 victory & his support's more about the other 3.
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@IanAustinMP: @gabyhinsliff @LadPolitics People should calm down. I think it's very unlikely he'll win & there is some evidence that polls might be wrong
ROFL0 -
Burn Kendall? Mr EaglesTheScreamingEagles said:I think the Labour have decided to go down in flames.
Andy Burnham is the Scouse Ed Miliband
Liz Kendall is the Blairite/Tory - Burn her
Yvette Cooper is Mrs Bland
You can see why they've gone for the authentic guy.
Didnt they used to do that to witches.
Surely Kendall is not a witch and Ms Cyclefree would give you a severe rollicking for even thinking such a thing!0 -
Well you know me, I like to be punished by women.bigjohnowls said:
Burn Kendall? Mr EaglesTheScreamingEagles said:I think the Labour have decided to go down in flames.
Andy Burnham is the Scouse Ed Miliband
Liz Kendall is the Blairite/Tory - Burn her
Yvette Cooper is Mrs Bland
You can see why they've gone for the authentic guy.
Didnt they used to do that to witches.
Surely Kendall is not a witch and Ms Cyclefree would give you a severe rollicking for even thinking such a thing!0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Rather surprised by this poll.
People talking of defenestrating him appears like sour grapes from the potential losers.
Only a couple of days until F1 returns. And then disappears for another four weeks. A seven week period with 1 race is daft.0 -
I no longer fully understand my party. Extraordinary really. All I can think is that it's not so much Corbyn winning this thing, but the other candidates conspiring to lose. If they can't beat Jeremy Corbyn for heaven's sake they really don't deserve to win. Knowing the Labour Party, they'll handle this the wrong way and just attack Corbyn. Instead they need to raise their game, offer some remotely inspiring policies and if necessary compromise to win this. It's back to the drawing board for Burnham and Cooper's campaign. They should pause and think this through. They are both to blame for this but there's time for them to turn it around.0
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If Corbyn wins or comes anything other than a distant third - I can't see how the hard-left will stop agitating.
If he genuinely had to step aside/down - he becomes a martyr and Best PM We Never Had.
If the rest of the Party try to depose him or ignore his apostles, the bun-fight will be enormous.
He's got the oxygen of publicity and a lot of the faithful love it. This is a no-win for Labour. Those MPs who lent him sympathy votes must be wondering what they've done. Road to Hell paved with good intentions and all that.Slackbladder said:
Such a move would split the labour party forever. That would be a SDP v2 moment.Tissue_Price said:
Is said MP stupid? That sort of thing will only encourage the Corbyn campaigners.Scott_P said:@xtophercook: Just had a chat with Labour MP about whether Jeremy Corbyn, as leader, would be deposed within a week or 6 weeks. (He thought a week.)
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Hands up who backed Corbyn, laid him and then rebacked him o/0
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True. But this month is about Labour and Osborne's budget.SouthamObserver said:
His luck may well run out around EU referendum time.TheScreamingEagles said:If Labour do elect Corbyn, it will confirm that Dave is the luckiest general since Hannibal
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I'm thinking of doing the same with Liz KendallPulpstar said:Hands up who backed Corbyn, laid him and then rebacked him o/
Anyone want to offer me odds on Liz Kendall winning the leadership election, before I hand over my money to a bookie?0 -
If there were a split it would be better to be the Corbnites leaving than at present it's the Blairites departing bit by bit.Slackbladder said:
Such a move would split the labour party forever. That would be a SDP v2 moment.Tissue_Price said:
Is said MP stupid? That sort of thing will only encourage the Corbyn campaigners.Scott_P said:@xtophercook: Just had a chat with Labour MP about whether Jeremy Corbyn, as leader, would be deposed within a week or 6 weeks. (He thought a week.)
There really is no reason for a Blairite Labour party any more - the unions don't want it, Scotland has the SNP to offer hopium on a stick and the rUk voters have Cameron - no wonder the Corbgasm is here.
Wile E Coyote has looked down and noticed there is no more road.
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It's astonishing that after Ed Miliband resigned Labour's situation appears to have gotten worse.0
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Budapest weather update.Morris_Dancer said:Only a couple of days until F1 returns. And then disappears for another four weeks. A seven week period with 1 race is daft.
Possible storms Friday, hot and sticky Saturday then a big temp drop for Sunday but staying dry
http://www.bbc.com/weather/30546430 -
Meep meep!TGOHF said:
Wile E Coyote has looked down and noticed there is no more road.0 -
Labour are like Carthage, they thought the result of the Second Punic War was bad, then the third one happened.Morris_Dancer said:It's astonishing that after Ed Miliband resigned Labour's situation appears to have gotten worse.
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I feel dissappointed to only have bet £10 at 14/1 on Corbyn.Pulpstar said:Hands up who backed Corbyn, laid him and then rebacked him o/
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Bet365 are top price 25-1. I've stuck up a fiver at 16.0 on Betfair if you want something less generous.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm thinking of doing the same with Liz KendallPulpstar said:Hands up who backed Corbyn, laid him and then rebacked him o/
Anyone want to offer me odds on Liz Kendall winning the leadership election, before I hand over my money to a bookie?0 -
This seemed thoroughly undemocratic:SouthamObserver said:Looking at the Guardian's live feed on the Blair speech I don't think there is one thing that I disagree with him on.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/22/tony-blairs-speech-on-the-future-of-labour-politics-live#block-55af559be4b0571ff3516162
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/623768508376158208
There's a case for believing in PR. There's a case for believing in FPTP. But believing in PR just for Scotland and Wales but not for the UK, because you need to keep UKIP out?
Well, I suppose it's not the most repugnant view that Blair has demonstrated.0 -
I'm inclined to believe that this poll correctly reflects the broad state of the race. Of course, as Kieran says there are lots of methodological problems and it's only one poll, but the thing is that it does tally very well with the other clues we have, such as the CLP nominations and the reports from the campaign teams.
Of course, that doesn't mean that, when they reach the actual cliff edge, the Labour lemmings will leap over. The consequences would be absolutely catastrophic for Labour, and the remaining sane members of the party (which might admittedly be a dwindling number) know it. It's hard to see how the party could avoid a split if Corbyn became leader: this is someone on the outer fringes of loony leftism, but, more importantly, someone who would take the UK into the international wilderness. The US would look on in utter bewilderment at a Corbyn-led Labour Party - would he even get security clearance for the normal leader of the opposition briefings?
Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the whole farce is the position of Unite. Quite what they think they are doing is a mystery to me, but what is clear is that, even if the Corbasm does subside as one would expect, the damage to the Labour Party caused by this dysfunctional leadership contest is going to be far-reaching.0 -
No just the road to the Daily Mail - you don't have to pay Kharon to get there and death is not a qualification.Plato said:
If Corbyn wins or comes anything other than a distant third - I can't see how the hard-left will stop agitating.
If he genuinely had to step aside/down - he becomes a martyr and Best PM We Never Had.
If the rest of the Party try to depose him or ignore his apostles, the bun-fight will be enormous.
He's got the oxygen of publicity and a lot of the faithful love it. This is a no-win for Labour. Those MPs who lent him sympathy votes must be wondering what they've done. Road to Hell paved with good intentions and all that.Slackbladder said:
Such a move would split the labour party forever. That would be a SDP v2 moment.Tissue_Price said:
Is said MP stupid? That sort of thing will only encourage the Corbyn campaigners.Scott_P said:@xtophercook: Just had a chat with Labour MP about whether Jeremy Corbyn, as leader, would be deposed within a week or 6 weeks. (He thought a week.)
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Mr. Sandpit, I think Ferrari benefits most in hot weather. Bad news for the lap 1 leader bet, as it may advantage Ferrari over Williams in qualifying.0
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I had £30 @ 100/1 but gave it back at about 40s! Then built up quite a red...Pulpstar said:Hands up who backed Corbyn, laid him and then rebacked him o/
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No, more like the Persians and 2020 looking like the Battle of Gaugamela.TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour are like Carthage, they thought the result of the Second Punic War was bad, then the third one happened.Morris_Dancer said:It's astonishing that after Ed Miliband resigned Labour's situation appears to have gotten worse.
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The Labour List survey being conducted this week will also provide another guide.The sample sizes of these polls has reached 4 figures and is on an increasing trend for Labour party supporters to have their say online.
There remains a possible Kendall to Cooper switch should she make a strategic exit which could take YC over the line.A nice,juicy shadow cabinet post could be on offer if she did.0 -
Mr. Eagles, very unfair on Carthage. They fought the hardest in the final war, which should've lasted about six minutes (it was a superpower against a city state) and ended up lasting a few years.
Maybe the General Election was the Battle of Kleidion, and the leadership election is when Bulgar survivors start arriving home.
Edited extra bit: nice comparison, Mr. Betting.
That said, can't see Labour suffering the same fate as the Achaemenids.0 -
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 1m1 minute ago
Jeremy Corbyn doing an economic speech today but press not invited.
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David Cameron as Basil II works for me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, very unfair on Carthage. They fought the hardest in the final war, which should've lasted about six minutes (it was a superpower against a city state) and ended up lasting a few years.
Maybe the General Election was the Battle of Kleidion, and the leadership election is when Bulgar survivors start arriving home.0 -
I thought that most of us voted on those LabourList polls - just for fun!volcanopete said:The Labour List survey being conducted this week will also provide another guide.The sample sizes of these polls has reached 4 figures and is on an increasing trend for Labour party supporters to have their say online.
There remains a possible Kendall to Cooper switch should she make a strategic exit which could take YC over the line.A nice,juicy shadow cabinet post could be on offer if she did.0 -
UNITE has successfully taken Labour over inch by inch for years. Packing CLPs/sponsoring MPs et al.
We used to joke about Labour being the political wing of UNITE - now it surely is. If Corbyn gets it - that's the last two leaders they'll have backed.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm inclined to believe that this poll correctly reflects the broad state of the race. Of course, as Kieran says there are lots of methodological problems and it's only one poll, but the thing is that it does tally very well with the other clues we have, such as the CLP nominations and the reports from the campaign teams.
Of course, that doesn't mean that, when they reach the actual cliff edge, the Labour lemmings will leap over. The consequences would be absolutely catastrophic for Labour, and the remaining sane members of the party (which might admittedly be a dwindling number) know it. It's hard to see how the party could avoid a split if Corbyn became leader: this is someone on the outer fringes of loony leftism, but, more importantly, someone who would take the UK into the international wilderness. The US would look on in utter bewilderment at a Corbyn-led Labour Party - would he even get security clearance for the normal leader of the opposition briefings?
Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the whole farce is the position of Unite. Quite what they think they are doing is a mystery to me, but what is clear is that, even if the Corbasm does subside as one would expect, the damage to the Labour Party caused by this dysfunctional leadership contest is going to be far-reaching.0 -
Henry, a voice of sanity inside Labour.HenryGManson said:I no longer fully understand my party. Extraordinary really. All I can think is that it's not so much Corbyn winning this thing, but the other candidates conspiring to lose. If they can't beat Jeremy Corbyn for heaven's sake they really don't deserve to win. Knowing the Labour Party, they'll handle this the wrong way and just attack Corbyn. Instead they need to raise their game, offer some remotely inspiring policies and if necessary compromise to win this. It's back to the drawing board for Burnham and Cooper's campaign. They should pause and think this through. They are both to blame for this but there's time for them to turn it around.
Thank goodness you are in the minority.
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Is that the reality version of being blocked on Twitter?TGOHF said:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 1m1 minute ago
Jeremy Corbyn doing an economic speech today but press not invited.0 -
I blame Chukka Umuna for Labour's unholy mess. If he hadn't bottled it, he would be well ahead of this field.
Oh, and Ed Balls for losing his seat.
It really is a shower of shit right now.0 -
It has been an increasingly aggressive financial takeover - surely someone must appeal to the Monopolies Commission!Plato said:
UNITE has successfully taken Labour over inch by inch for years. Packing CLPs/sponsoring MPs et al.
We used to joke about Labour being the political wing of UNITE - now it surely is. If Corbyn gets it - that's the last two leaders they'll have backed.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm inclined to believe that this poll correctly reflects the broad state of the race. Of course, as Kieran says there are lots of methodological problems and it's only one poll, but the thing is that it does tally very well with the other clues we have, such as the CLP nominations and the reports from the campaign teams.
Of course, that doesn't mean that, when they reach the actual cliff edge, the Labour lemmings will leap over. The consequences would be absolutely catastrophic for Labour, and the remaining sane members of the party (which might admittedly be a dwindling number) know it. It's hard to see how the party could avoid a split if Corbyn became leader: this is someone on the outer fringes of loony leftism, but, more importantly, someone who would take the UK into the international wilderness. The US would look on in utter bewilderment at a Corbyn-led Labour Party - would he even get security clearance for the normal leader of the opposition briefings?
Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the whole farce is the position of Unite. Quite what they think they are doing is a mystery to me, but what is clear is that, even if the Corbasm does subside as one would expect, the damage to the Labour Party caused by this dysfunctional leadership contest is going to be far-reaching.0 -
Is this an appropriate time for Sion's climb the barricades call?
"Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
"We’ve learned that we cannot be killed. And we’ve come to accept that we’ll never go home. But now is the light headed dance, the fretful mazurka, of an army that knows it can never arrive."0 -
I'm assuming UNITE is in kind? Or not yet declared?
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/6237846841457418240 -
David Skelton @DJSkelton
Only one Labour leader (out of 7) in past 41 years has won an election. Labour supporters are mocking him, not listening to him. Astonishing0 -
Most of the fieldwork would have been done before Burnham's Clusterfeck on the Welfare vote0
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Yougov should do a theoretical poll:
Blair vs Corbyn ...0 -
6 years ago our website once ran an article about this.Plato said:UNITE has successfully taken Labour over inch by inch for years. Packing CLPs/sponsoring MPs et al.
We used to joke about Labour being the political wing of UNITE - now it surely is. If Corbyn gets it - that's the last two leaders they'll have backed.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm inclined to believe that this poll correctly reflects the broad state of the race. Of course, as Kieran says there are lots of methodological problems and it's only one poll, but the thing is that it does tally very well with the other clues we have, such as the CLP nominations and the reports from the campaign teams.
Of course, that doesn't mean that, when they reach the actual cliff edge, the Labour lemmings will leap over. The consequences would be absolutely catastrophic for Labour, and the remaining sane members of the party (which might admittedly be a dwindling number) know it. It's hard to see how the party could avoid a split if Corbyn became leader: this is someone on the outer fringes of loony leftism, but, more importantly, someone who would take the UK into the international wilderness. The US would look on in utter bewilderment at a Corbyn-led Labour Party - would he even get security clearance for the normal leader of the opposition briefings?
Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the whole farce is the position of Unite. Quite what they think they are doing is a mystery to me, but what is clear is that, even if the Corbasm does subside as one would expect, the damage to the Labour Party caused by this dysfunctional leadership contest is going to be far-reaching.
"Political Betting Ahead of the Pack for Informed Political Writing"
OGH!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/21/is-truelabour-right-to-worry-about-unite/#vanilla-comments0 -
Henry, you are not alone.HenryGManson said:I no longer fully understand my party. Extraordinary really. All I can think is that it's not so much Corbyn winning this thing, but the other candidates conspiring to lose. If they can't beat Jeremy Corbyn for heaven's sake they really don't deserve to win. Knowing the Labour Party, they'll handle this the wrong way and just attack Corbyn. Instead they need to raise their game, offer some remotely inspiring policies and if necessary compromise to win this. It's back to the drawing board for Burnham and Cooper's campaign. They should pause and think this through. They are both to blame for this but there's time for them to turn it around.
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I'm not so sure - Chukka is the uber Blairite. I think he'd be way behind Corbyn given the spasm of purity Labourites are demonstrating right now.MarqueeMark said:
I blame Chukka Umuna for Labour's unholy mess. If he hadn't bottled it, he would be well ahead of this field.
Oh, and Ed Balls for losing his seat.
It really is a shower of shit right now.0 -
The Times point out in yesterday's women's ODI between England and Australia. England's Osborne dismissed Sciver0
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Refreshingly frank and honest. Whatever happens now though the damage done may be too much. I'm also unclear if Cooper or Burnham have anything much to say beyond not being Miliband - who btw would be hanging his head in shame today were it not for his supreme intellect!HenryGManson said:I no longer fully understand my party. Extraordinary really. All I can think is that it's not so much Corbyn winning this thing, but the other candidates conspiring to lose. If they can't beat Jeremy Corbyn for heaven's sake they really don't deserve to win. Knowing the Labour Party, they'll handle this the wrong way and just attack Corbyn. Instead they need to raise their game, offer some remotely inspiring policies and if necessary compromise to win this. It's back to the drawing board for Burnham and Cooper's campaign. They should pause and think this through. They are both to blame for this but there's time for them to turn it around.
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Henry, you should stand yourself. Labour needs someone sensible to drag the party into the 21st century. The only one who's trying is Kendall and she gets photoshopped wearing a Tory rosette for her troubles. Burnham and Cooper are running scared of upsetting Corbyn supporters in the chase for second preferences.HenryGManson said:I no longer fully understand my party. Extraordinary really. All I can think is that it's not so much Corbyn winning this thing, but the other candidates conspiring to lose. If they can't beat Jeremy Corbyn for heaven's sake they really don't deserve to win. Knowing the Labour Party, they'll handle this the wrong way and just attack Corbyn. Instead they need to raise their game, offer some remotely inspiring policies and if necessary compromise to win this. It's back to the drawing board for Burnham and Cooper's campaign. They should pause and think this through. They are both to blame for this but there's time for them to turn it around.
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Ah, a Fawlty Towers reference. Much more my thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
David Cameron as Basil II works for me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, very unfair on Carthage. They fought the hardest in the final war, which should've lasted about six minutes (it was a superpower against a city state) and ended up lasting a few years.
Maybe the General Election was the Battle of Kleidion, and the leadership election is when Bulgar survivors start arriving home.0 -
In that case it's a false perspective.Innocent_Abroad said:
Of course not. Why would Party members want to abandon their principles so that less than 1% of their number can swan around in ministerial limousines? It is a piece of the Labour soul to believe that their Party has only ever been in office, never in power. From that perspective not wanting to win is not only no big deal, it is rationality.
Who is the greater betrayer of the working class, those who smug vanity makes them cling on to all of their precious "principles" and remain in impotently in opposition watching the Tories do what they like, or those who pragmatically put forward a programme to gain power and actually do something to help the poor and underpriveleged?
"It is a piece of the Labour soul to believe that their Party has only ever been in office, never in power."
In that case it is a piece of the soul that needs removal. Between 1997 and 2010 there is also a long list of things that Labour did aimed directly at helping the poor and increasing equal rights. (*)
(*) and a significant list of failures too, it needs to be added.0 -
Miss Plato, to be fair to Labour, Blair's time in office has aged about as well as an anthrax-ridden corpse, and he's not covered himself in glory since.0
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Jim Pickard @PickardJE
Blair: "When people say ‘my heart says...’, well, get a transplant. We need to be putting our values into practice0 -
That's a great price from 365. I got 20s this morning from Shadsy so now green on all bar Burnham (very green on Corbyn at 100/1!)Pulpstar said:
Bet365 are top price 25-1. I've stuck up a fiver at 16.0 on Betfair if you want something less generous.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm thinking of doing the same with Liz KendallPulpstar said:Hands up who backed Corbyn, laid him and then rebacked him o/
Anyone want to offer me odds on Liz Kendall winning the leadership election, before I hand over my money to a bookie?
Kendall supposedly has a team of heavweight advisors and supporters behind her who have been very quiet until now - I wonder if they have a big push planned for the week the ballots go out?0 -
Indeed! Great archeology.TCPoliticalBetting said:
6 years ago our website once ran an article about this.Plato said:UNITE has successfully taken Labour over inch by inch for years. Packing CLPs/sponsoring MPs et al.
We used to joke about Labour being the political wing of UNITE - now it surely is. If Corbyn gets it - that's the last two leaders they'll have backed.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm inclined to believe that this poll correctly reflects the broad state of the race. Of course, as Kieran says there are lots of methodological problems and it's only one poll, but the thing is that it does tally very well with the other clues we have, such as the CLP nominations and the reports from the campaign teams.
Of course, that doesn't mean that, when they reach the actual cliff edge, the Labour lemmings will leap over. The consequences would be absolutely catastrophic for Labour, and the remaining sane members of the party (which might admittedly be a dwindling number) know it. It's hard to see how the party could avoid a split if Corbyn became leader: this is someone on the outer fringes of loony leftism, but, more importantly, someone who would take the UK into the international wilderness. The US would look on in utter bewilderment at a Corbyn-led Labour Party - would he even get security clearance for the normal leader of the opposition briefings?
Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the whole farce is the position of Unite. Quite what they think they are doing is a mystery to me, but what is clear is that, even if the Corbasm does subside as one would expect, the damage to the Labour Party caused by this dysfunctional leadership contest is going to be far-reaching.
"Political Betting Ahead of the Pack for Informed Political Writing"
OGH!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/21/is-truelabour-right-to-worry-about-unite/#vanilla-comments0 -
But it is also hard to see how Labour avoids a split if Corbyn doesn't become leader. I expect Liz to withdraw and urge her supporters to vote for Cooper. The Left will see it as a Blairite stitch-up to rob them of victory (and they would have a case). Unite? Who knows whether they will rein back their financial commitment if Corbyn just loses. Surely there will be a wedge of activists who think "What's the point?" whoever loses.Richard_Nabavi said:It's hard to see how the party could avoid a split if Corbyn became leader: this is someone on the outer fringes of loony leftism, but, more importantly, someone who would take the UK into the international wilderness. The US would look on in utter bewilderment at a Corbyn-led Labour Party - would he even get security clearance for the normal leader of the opposition briefings?
Dark days.
Titter.
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