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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Poll: Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Poll: Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win
Last night, YouGov released a poll on the Labour leadership that has thrown something of a hand grenade into the contest. After rumours that private polling was showing Jeremy Corbyn ahead we now have a poll showing exactly that. In fact, the first preference numbers in this poll are:
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'YouGov saying that £3 Labour and union members are breaking a massive 57% for Corbyn according to Times.
Wow.'
Labours problem for a number of years has been at every meeting, in every publication the shrill voices are the loudest and anything else is drowned out-call it the Owen Jones tendancy. It looks like the only way to lose that is for the sane to board the lifeboats now and leave the lunatics to burn down the assylum if I may mix my metaphors.
And UNITE are recruiting like no ones business to get more sign-ups. Will the polling ginger up those opposed to Corbyn or encourage even more hard-Lefties?
Right now, even Tories4Corbyn must be getting swamped by those who genuinely want a low watt Tony Benn in charge.
I don't think this has been mentioned before but in opposition the Leader and Deputy Leader face annual elections. Throughout his term Ed was returned unopposed but that need not be the case and Corbyn would surely likely be challenged if the party's ratings plunged.
However, the system would be the same as that which elected him in the first place.
See page 20 of
https://rotherhampolitics.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/rule-book-2014-collins-review.pdf
Say we're in recession and Osborne is in charge.
Say Labour win 20 seats and the Lib Dems 5, that might be enough...
Welcome - and feel free to mix your metaphors whenever you want!
Only the music is not so good.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-07-22/tony-blair-will-be-dry-wood-on-the-raging-labour-fire/
There may be method to Labours madness though - Moononastick esque parties lead by charismatic pyschos have done very well in elections in Greece, Venezuala and Scotland.
Owen Bennett @owenjbennett 2m2 minutes ago
Just been handed Blair's speech. "I wouldn't want to win an old fashioned leftist platform. Even I thought it was the route to victory"
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I had a bit of crush on Mr Davenport myself.
Tony Blair mounts Corbyn fightback - tells @ProgressOnline: "You win from the centre. You don't win from a traditional leftist position".
Woodcock: 'Tony Blair is the only person alive ever to have taken Labour from Opposition to Government.' Pause a minute and ponder on that.
I eagerly await my ballot papers!
I think he would pick up many voters who currently don't vote Labour or don't vote at all.
He won't lose many Tory-lite Labour voters as they have already switched to the Tories.
The DNV group unsurprisingly and typically DNV.
It's more likely the Labour vote fractures, and some vote Lib Dem or even Tory in frustration, and thus hand the Tories a further 20-30 seats.
Jeremy will never be Labour leader. It's a wet dream for the Tories and a wet dream for a few ideological purists. The result would be the Monty Python sketch about the splitters.
I voted Labour when Foot was leader. He was ideological but a pragmatist, a political version of Corbyn. I voted Labour then knowing that if the worst came to the worst. his odd views would be modified by circumstances or colleagues. With JC, it's different.
In their heart of hearts, Labour voters know that Corbyn may be a lovely idea but one that would self-destruct and cede the election to Cameron or his successor. Some will go for it, but not enough.They're hurting but not suicidal.
" Ed Miliband’s objective was to kill New Labour and to give the voters a clear choice between his party and the Tories. He succeeded on both counts."
"Labour is a toddler that has to be told time and again that the cooker is burny but every now and then throws a fit and pulls the scalding pot down around it. May’s rout was the rebuke for another tantrum but the sting lingers in the present leadership contest. Having driven the grown-ups from the party, Labour faces a starkly unserious field for its top job. Two soft-left continuity candidates compete with a hard-left dreamer and an MP who has only been in Parliament five years. Labour doesn’t look like an alternative government and, what’s worse, it doesn’t seem to care."
"Labour would be a daring party that assailed the Tories not merely as enemies of the poor and the marginalised but as a roadblock to a dynamic, prosperous and secure country for people from all walks of life. This sounds perfectly reasonable to the average voter but it is heresy to those who think the purpose of the Labour Party is to feel morally superior to people who read the Daily Mail. The biggest strike against Kendall, and what could ultimately do for her, is that she might make Labour electable again." http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1324261-analysis-stephen-daisley-on-liz-kendall-and-the-labour-leadership-race/
But when push comes to shove, Osborne vs Corbyn in 2020 will be a rerun of Thatcher v Foot. He will repulse floating / casual voters everywhere.
Another Tory majority - but Labour will have a fair few more seats than they do now.
Look at the millions who voted Kipper at GE2015 - many were frankly astonished so many actually did so after months of Peak Kipper. Surely there are enough who believe in Corbyn's hard Left politics in the echo leadership election.
We often mention the DT's comments and CiF - well they're mirror images of each other. If Nigel wasn't running UKIP - what would a leadership election look like amongst their faithful?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 4 mins4 minutes ago
Blair on financial crisis: "There is absolutely no case whatever for effectively accepting that Labour 'caused' it."
When fantasy politics gets traction like this - it's just so compelling - I feel like I'm watching an M25 pile-up and enjoying it.
Some couldn't care less about politics. They have other interests or no interests at all. They will never vote.
Other DNVs including many young people who do care about political issues. But they are not motivated at all by the two main parties jostling for position in the centre ground with policies that are almost indistinguishable. But give them a cause they believe in, and a leader who can articulate it, they will vote.
I don't know the relative numbers. As @SandyRentool says below "If Corbyn wins and we hoover up all of the left of centre support to take a consistent lead in the polls, happy days. If we plunge to 20%, he falls on his sword any we try again, with the next generation standing in the ballot. Nothing to get worked up about."
He has a head of steam building up because many are amazed and pleased that we have a politician who will say what he really believes.
He's a breath of fresh air, but one which will evaporate when they we see that he's a sixth former who believes that the world is the way he wants it to be. Nasty facts intrude.
Ask Greece.
https://twitter.com/heathsrise/status/623764704905728000
It's word games. Labour can complain they did not 'cause' it, but it doesn't help much - until such times as the government duo lose their positive economic credibility - because the Tories can happily accept Blairs point as irrelevant with the 'they made it worse' argument. That battle has been won, and labour should leave it to economists and historians to counter it, and wait for the next battle instead.
So Tony is in a sense a denier, crying about unfairness which even if true is unhelpful.
I can see sense in both notions - but the Corbynites will never win a GE.
That should go down well
Five years is a very long time in politics - Tories for Corbyn's £3 is like playing with a live firecracker. He worries me in a way none of the other candidates do !
Lol..
According to Labour list:
'Later this morning, Corbyn will be giving a speech in which he'll set out his vision for a "fairer, more productive economy". This will include cutting subsidies for businesses and proposing a more progressive tax system.'
There's student politics and magic money trees - and reality. When Jezza's politics of CND et al were more popular - Foot was still annihilated. And all Mr Corbyn's IRA and other friends...?
The Brits have a sanity-mode when it comes to GEs, and this will kick in. It has done for a very long time.
A market controlled by the state, presumably, given his views.
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.
Andy Burnham is the Scouse Ed Miliband
Liz Kendall is the Blairite/Tory - Burn her
Yvette Cooper is Mrs Bland
You can see why they've gone for the authentic guy.
JC is an old git with anger management issues (think Harry Enfield's creation). The Labour party has just lost a traumatic election and many in it are angry. They seem a good fit for now but it's a brief alliance only.
Reality will intrude.
Those variables in of themselves can't check for doping but VAM, w/kg, efficiency are all clues in the game. VO2 max and thresholds perhaps to be checked before and after a 3 week stage race too.
Let's look at the sort of seat that Lab need to win - Milton Keynes S
Con - 27.6k
Lab - 18.9k
UKIP - 7.8k
LD - 2.3k
Green - 1.9k
Other - 0.4k
Non-Voters - Approx 31k
Majority - 8672
So in theory there is a large pool of non-voters but in practice you would need to get 28% of them to vote which is a huge number. Bear in mind if they were all hard lefties disappointed with Labour then they could have voted Green. Some of the non-voters will be due to register inaccuracies (moved house or died), some will be people who were ill or those who were out of the country and didn't get a postal vote.
It is worth noting that the Con majority is higher than Green & LD put together. Realistically to win this seat Lab either needs to be taking a large chunk of the UKIP vote or they need direct Lab-Con switchers. Is Corbyn going to help with either of those?
http://bit.ly/1KklK0b
"Yes, I'm sure you feel that the electorate have treated you badly, but there's no need to go off with someone totally unsuitable. You'll soon regret it."
Blair: '2015 election was an election out of the 1980s. Like Star Trek or something.'
TBH, I don't think she has anything to say at all - plenty of time so far and almost sphinx like about her real views.
Chukka ?
Dan Jarvis ?
I'm thinking Yes, No.