politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to
Comments
-
I think campaigning with Labours gravestone was quite original!SeanT said:
Ed Miliband is not an intellectual. I cannot pinpoint a significant new idea for which he can claim ownership. Not one. Not a sausage. He just serves up warmed-over socialism, the ideological leftovers of the Seventies, covered in a sauce of opportunism.felix said:
Ed had intellect???? I know he had intellectual self-confidence but intellect? Really?MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?0 -
That was then, Miliband was almost now, and Burnham/Cooper/Corbyn really are now.HYUFD said:
Well the Tories can hardly talk, in 2001 Tory MPs put IDS in the final 2 rather than Portillo by 1 voteMarkHopkins said:
On Corbyn, can I just say to the Labour party: Serves. You. Right.
You wanted to be politically correct and inclusive - and this is what you get.
Being a leader needs an element of ruthlessness to beat the competition, not someone who is let in because you felt sorry for him.0 -
Ah! Nope, luckier I will agree. Even with a First from Brasenose College iI would not say that he was an intellectual, or even street smart.SeanT said:
Oh, Cameron is no intellectual either. But, unlike Ed, he doesn't claim to be. Thank God. Spare us intellectual politicians. Cameron claims to be a pragmatic One Nation Conservative, with a fairly shrewd Chancellor.OchEye said:
Just thinking about David Cameron, and looking at a mirror image of EM, I have to agree.SeanT said:
Ed Miliband is not an intellectual. I cannot pinpoint a significant new idea for which he can claim ownership. Not one. Not a sausage. He just serves up warmed-over socialism, the ideological leftovers of the Seventies, covered in a sauce of opportunism.felix said:
Ed had intellect???? I know he had intellectual self-confidence but intellect? Really?MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
He is also a much better politician, and smarter election campaigner, than Ed Miliband, as it turns out.0 -
Finland says no to Greece. Looks ominous for the European project.0
-
Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?0
-
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
0 -
Mrs Indecisive agreed to that? I suppose on the face of it it makes sense - kicking them out, but not being final about it, in intent at any rate, so a mish mash compromise.SeanT said:This is potentially huge.
@StefanLeifert 16m16 minutes ago
Stefan Leifert retweeted Anne Gellinek
German government sources: Idea of a temporary Grexit was agreed on by Merkel and vice-chancellor Gabriel. #Greece
Are they really gonna do it? Send Greece to Dignitas? Pull the plug, finally?
Other reports say five other nations - including Finland and Holland - want Grexit, too. This is epochal. If it happens.
The deal has to be done tomorrow, this surely has to be last minute positioning to scare yet more concessions out of Greece because they don't trust Tsipras. Surely?
0 -
The Euro is an unexploded bomb in the world's financial network..Big_G_NorthWales said:Finland says no to Greece. Looks ominous for the European project.
0 -
Ed Miliband being an intellectual...LOL...we were served that BS about Brown too. The one other BS idea that hasn't been burst is that somehow David Miliband is also brilliant.
Cameron has some brains in there somewhere, but is too bloody lazy to use them most of the time. But he, nor his supporters, have never tried to sell Call Me Dave as some deep thinking genius.0 -
I shall thank Labour a long time for that one - as I had thought the outcome was clear (incorrectly) and on the basis campaigning doesn't change things as much as people think, that event stood out as an amusing aside in a dull election period, and was the only thing that got people really talking about the election in my office, outside myself and the other boring political farts. Good times.foxinsoxuk said:
I think campaigning with Labours gravestone was quite original!SeanT said:
Ed Miliband is not an intellectual. I cannot pinpoint a significant new idea for which he can claim ownership. Not one. Not a sausage. He just serves up warmed-over socialism, the ideological leftovers of the Seventies, covered in a sauce of opportunism.felix said:
Ed had intellect???? I know he had intellectual self-confidence but intellect? Really?MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?0 -
Europe was always the litmus test, correct, and the danger was that he would have split the party, but he would have made a far more dangerous foe for Blair than the other Tory leaders he had to face, as even Blair himself stated in his diariesSeanT said:
Generally agree, but one point of order - Ken Clarke as leader, when the party was at its most feverishly eurosceptic, would have split the Tories in two, forever. The Tories made the right call, there.HYUFD said:
Sometimes parties make mad decisions, eg Home over Butler, Foot over Healey, Hague and IDS over Clarke, Ed Miliband over David, normally because they are in a mood to put ideology above all elseSeanT said:felix said:
I always felt that both of the brothers were massively over-rated - not least by themselves and a lefty, guardianista mind-set determined to over-hype them because they went to a north London comprehensive.SeanT said:
Ed Miliband is not an intellectual. I cannot pinpoint a significant new idea for which he can claim ownership. Not one. Not a sausage. He just serves up warmed-over socialism, the ideological leftovers of the Seventies, covered in a sauce of opportunism.felix said:
Ed had intellect???? I know he had intellectual self-confidence but intellect? Really?MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit hance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
And yes, I don't think David would have been that much better.
It was Clarke himself who was the fool. His devotion to what, as we now see, was a ludicrous cause - the EU, and the euro - cost him the leadership and a chance of leading the nation.0 -
I guess this is further proof that first past the post screws smaller parties/UNS can be accurate for them, had Carswell not defected to UKIP they would have won zero MPs.
Add in their lack of incumbents, boundary changes and UKIP having become an extension of Farage's ego, 1 or 2 MPs might be the best they can hope for in 2020, not 102 MPs that some hoped for this election.0 -
Exactly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
Best that I would offer would be a bridging loan for a few months while Greece passes all it says.0 -
I think the problem is after the couple of bail out where the German's demanded that any national industry that functions at all has to be privatized (then found lots of them barely function), there is no collateral left.SeanT said:
They don't believe Greece will deliver on the proposed reforms. Quite understandably. No one trusts Tsipras or Syriza to inflict this austerity on voters.JEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
They therefore want total control of the Greek Budget AND some kind of collateral.
Crete?
Modern Greece has nothing to offer the modern world, besides some olives and some feta, which aint going to pay off billions in bail outs.0 -
Interesting, but Brown is a damn sight more of an intellectual than Cameron, Osborne and the rest of the Tory front bench put together. And after all, isn't Cameron using Blair's autobiography as a bible?FrancisUrquhart said:Ed Miliband being an intellectual...LOL...we were served that BS about Brown too. The one other BS idea that isn't been burst is that somehow David Miliband is also brilliant.
0 -
No agreement today, but unfortunately the Eurogroup is going to go on and on until either the French or the Germans surrender.SeanT said:
They don't believe Greece will deliver on the proposed reforms. Quite understandably. No one trusts Tsipras or Syriza to inflict this austerity on voters.JEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
They therefore want total control of the Greek Budget AND some kind of collateral.
Crete?
Cameron is lucky, it seems that because there is a stalemate in the eurogroup there won't be an extraordinary EU summit tomorrow for Grexit.
That means that Greece is stuck at the worst possible position, unable to get another bailout of death and unwilling to leave the eurozone.0 -
Nana Mouskouri?SeanT said:
They don't believe Greece will deliver on the proposed reforms. Quite understandably. No one trusts Tsipras or Syriza to inflict this austerity on voters.JEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
They therefore want total control of the Greek Budget AND some kind of collateral.
Crete?0 -
Cameron got fairly average O levels at Eton, Ed Miliband AABB at A Level and a 2.1, David Miliband BBBD, none are exactly intellectual titansOchEye said:
Ah! Nope, luckier I will agree. Even with a First from Brasenose College iI would not say that he was an intellectual, or even street smart.SeanT said:
Oh, Cameron is no intellectual either. But, unlike Ed, he doesn't claim to be. Thank God. Spare us intellectual politicians. Cameron claims to be a pragmatic One Nation Conservative, with a fairly shrewd Chancellor.OchEye said:
Just thinking about David Cameron, and looking at a mirror image of EM, I have to agree.SeanT said:
Ed Miliband is not an intellectual. I cannot pinpoint a significant new idea for which he can claim ownership. Not one. Not a sausage. He just serves up warmed-over socialism, the ideological leftovers of the Seventies, covered in a sauce of opportunism.felix said:
Ed had intellect???? I know he had intellectual self-confidence but intellect? Really?MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
He is also a much better politician, and smarter election campaigner, than Ed Miliband, as it turns out.0 -
True, but it shows all parties are perfectly capable of stupidity when it comes to leadership contests. A Burnham or Cooper victory would also not be in the same league of error as a Corbyn winfelix said:
That was then, Miliband was almost now, and Burnham/Cooper/Corbyn really are now.HYUFD said:
Well the Tories can hardly talk, in 2001 Tory MPs put IDS in the final 2 rather than Portillo by 1 voteMarkHopkins said:
On Corbyn, can I just say to the Labour party: Serves. You. Right.
You wanted to be politically correct and inclusive - and this is what you get.
Being a leader needs an element of ruthlessness to beat the competition, not someone who is let in because you felt sorry for him.0 -
You might think that, but personally Brown's 10 years to get his PhD in Labour Party History, I wouldn't wipe my arse with. You can tell it was a pile of c##p, as the only academic job he could get after that was teaching at the local technical college.OchEye said:
Interesting, but Brown is a damn sight more of an intellectual than Cameron, Osborne and the rest of the Tory front bench put together. And after all, isn't Cameron using Blair's autobiography as a bible?FrancisUrquhart said:Ed Miliband being an intellectual...LOL...we were served that BS about Brown too. The one other BS idea that isn't been burst is that somehow David Miliband is also brilliant.
0 -
Is this the weekend that the European Union implodes on a north v south schism resulting in the collapse of the whole projectSpeedy said:
No agreement today, but unfortunately the Eurogroup is going to go on and on until either the French or the Germans surrender.SeanT said:
They don't believe Greece will deliver on the proposed reforms. Quite understandably. No one trusts Tsipras or Syriza to inflict this austerity on voters.JEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
They therefore want total control of the Greek Budget AND some kind of collateral.
Crete?
Cameron is lucky, it seems that because there is a stalemate in the eurogroup there won't be an extraordinary EU summit tomorrow for Grexit.
That means that Greece is stuck at the worst possible position, unable to get another bailout of death and unwilling to leave the eurozone.0 -
So why bother offering the original terms in the first place?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Mr. NorthWales, I'd be surprised if it were. The can is severely dented but they'll kick it as long as they can.0 -
Then why did they offer those terms a week or so ago?SeanT said:
They don't believe Greece will deliver on the proposed reforms. Quite understandably. No one trusts Tsipras or Syriza to inflict this austerity on voters.JEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
They therefore want total control of the Greek Budget AND some kind of collateral.
Crete?0 -
Will the markets let themMorris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Mr. NorthWales, I'd be surprised if it were. The can is severely dented but they'll kick it as long as they can.0 -
Oh, Cameron is no intellectual either. But, unlike Ed, he doesn't claim to be. Thank God. Spare us intellectual politicians. Cameron claims to be a pragmatic One Nation Conservative, with a fairly shrewd Chancellor.HYUFD said:
Just thinking about David Cameron, and looking at a mirror image of EM, I have to agree.
He is also a much better politician, and smarter election campaigner, than Ed Miliband, as it turns out.
Ah! Nope, luckier I will agree. Even with a First from Brasenose College iI would not say that he was an intellectual, or even street smart.
Cameron got fairly average O levels at Eton, Ed Miliband AABB at A Level and a 2.1, David Miliband BBBD, none are exactly intellectual titans
Erm! 12 o's,From the age of seven, Cameron was educated at two independent schools: at Heatherdown School in Winkfield (near Ascot) in Berkshire, which counts Prince Andrew and Prince Edward among its alumni. Due to good academic grades, Cameron entered its top academic class almost two years early.[30] At the age of thirteen, he went to Eton College in Berkshire, following his father and elder brother.[31] His early interest was in art. Six weeks before taking his O-Levels he was caught smoking cannabis.[2] He admitted the offence and had not been involved in selling drugs, so he was not expelled, but was fined, prevented from leaving school grounds, and given a "Georgic" (a punishment which involved copying 500 lines of Latin text).[32]
Cameron passed 12 O-Levels and then studied three A-levels: History of art, History, and Economics with Politics. He obtained three 'A' grades and a '1' grade in the Scholarship Level exam in Economics and Politics.[33] The following autumn he passed the entrance exam for the University of Oxford, where he was offered an exhibition.[34]
Brasenose College, Oxford
After leaving Eton in 1984,[35] Cameron started a nine-month gap year. He worked as a researcher for his godfather Tim Rathbone, then Conservative MP for Lewes. In his three months, he attended debates in the House of Commons.[36] Through his father, he was then employed for a further three months in Hong Kong by Jardine Matheson as a 'ship jumper', an administrative post.[37]0 -
To reiterate where the Eurogroup is stuck:
Half the eurogroup (with Germany as leader) wants Greece to leave, France and Juncker are vetoing any Grexit, the Grexit camp is vetoing any bailout, the result is no solution and Greece gets neither more loans nor a Grexit.
And as Tsipras is a committed european and his Finance Minister a conspiring euro-communist, Greece will never leave by it's own.0 -
If Greece crashes out of the Eurozone, it will surely have a big effect on Europe's economy. Perhaps it won't be as bad as the financial crisis in 07/08, but even half the effect would be major. It's the biggest default in history after all.
Looking at the 07/08 crisis, it took about 1-2 years to fully filter through into the real economy. So if Greece crashed out now, our economy would probably be worse hit in early 2017. So we'll have a big economic slowdown, caused by the EU, just before the Brexit referendum.0 -
Mr. Speedy, I thought the new Greek finance chap was a sceptic?
Will the markets let them? Hmm. If they keep arguing about whether to use the life-raft or the life-boat, the rising water will drown Greece. They'll need to print a new currency simply to stop the economy falling into the sea.
Edited extra bit: Mr. JEO, that's certainly possible but I do wonder if the political impact will be more significant than the economic one.0 -
"In the aftermath of May 7th UKIP was taking some comfort from the 120 second places it had chalked up suggesting that this provided a good platform for next time."
Nah, the party has had its day in the sun. By 2020, Britain's place in or out of the EU will have been settled once and for all and it will have ceased to have any raison d'être. As a result I expect its share of the vote to slip back to < 5%. Just as likely is the prospect of the party breaking up into two or more meaningless factions.0 -
Who knows what EUref will bring, especially given the eurozone chaos this weekendTheScreamingEagles said:I guess this is further proof that first past the post screws smaller parties/UNS can be accurate for them, had Carswell not defected to UKIP they would have won zero MPs.
Add in their lack of incumbents, boundary changes and UKIP having become an extension of Farage's ego, 1 or 2 MPs might be the best they can hope for in 2020, not 102 MPs that some hoped for this election.0 -
Presumably they might have trusted them to uphold those terms if they'd accepted them in the first place, rather than hold a referendum on how humiliating and unacceptable they were, they promise 'but no, really we will accept and honour these terms'.nigel4england said:
So why bother offering the original terms in the first place?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
But on balance I think it'll be harder for the reluctant to reject what is apparently a very similar offer purely on the trust issue - enough of them are still reluctant enough to pull the trigger on Grexit that they will get over that and pretend once again this will fix things.0 -
Probably not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is this the weekend that the European Union implodes on a north v south schism resulting in the collapse of the whole projectSpeedy said:
No agreement today, but unfortunately the Eurogroup is going to go on and on until either the French or the Germans surrender.SeanT said:
They don't believe Greece will deliver on the proposed reforms. Quite understandably. No one trusts Tsipras or Syriza to inflict this austerity on voters.JEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
They therefore want total control of the Greek Budget AND some kind of collateral.
Crete?
Cameron is lucky, it seems that because there is a stalemate in the eurogroup there won't be an extraordinary EU summit tomorrow for Grexit.
That means that Greece is stuck at the worst possible position, unable to get another bailout of death and unwilling to leave the eurozone.0 -
My advice would be to back the one who takes the best drugs.stjohn said:
Mike I've followed you on this. I've backed him each way at 18/1 with Corals. Good luck!MikeSmithson said:Tejay Van Garderen is a 22 on Betfair for the TdF. He's currently in 3rd place & tomorrow could be in yellow because it's the team time trial and his BMC team are reckoned to be the strongest.
0 -
Ken Clarkes wife has died
Thursday night apparently, sorry if it's old news
https://twitter.com/pa/status/6199551668554915840 -
Only a few leadership contendors have been genuine intellectuals, since the war I would say Macmillan (on a good day), Powell, Wilson, Keith Joseph, Foot, Healey, Jenkins, Hurd, Redwood, Hague and Portillo come into that category and perhaps Balls (who is actually more intellectual than Brown)FrancisUrquhart said:
You might think that, but personally Brown's 10 years to get his PhD in Labour Party History, I wouldn't wipe my arse with. You can tell it was a pile of c##p, as the only academic job he could get after that was teaching at the local technical college.OchEye said:
Interesting, but Brown is a damn sight more of an intellectual than Cameron, Osborne and the rest of the Tory front bench put together. And after all, isn't Cameron using Blair's autobiography as a bible?FrancisUrquhart said:Ed Miliband being an intellectual...LOL...we were served that BS about Brown too. The one other BS idea that isn't been burst is that somehow David Miliband is also brilliant.
0 -
If you read down bellow I've uncovered an essay of his which he regards that Greece must absolutely remain in the Eurozone in order to overthrow capitalism in Europe from within, seems the new Greek Finance Minister has misplaced some marbles.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Speedy, I thought the new Greek finance chap was a sceptic?
Will the markets let them? Hmm. If they keep arguing about whether to use the life-raft or the life-boat, the rising water will drown Greece. They'll need to print a new currency simply to stop the economy falling into the sea.
Edited extra bit: Mr. JEO, that's certainly possible but I do wonder if the political impact will be more significant than the economic one.
Oh here it is:
http://www.workersliberty.org/system/files/milios.pdf
"Communist Dilemmas on the Greek Euro-Crisis: To Exit or
Not to Exit?
Christos Laskos, John Milios and Euclid Tsakalotos"0 -
It was Syrizia's handling of the original terms that was the final nail in the coffin for trust.nigel4england said:
So why bother offering the original terms in the first place?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
I think Grexit is pretty well priced into the markets, so the effect will be much less than it was. Unlike the web of CDOs there will be little cross contamination of other markets.
0 -
Ah! Nope, luckier I will agree. Even with a First from Brasenose College iI would not say that he was an intellectual, or even street smart.OchEye said:
Oh, Cameron is no intellectual either. But, unlike Ed, he doesn't claim to be. Thank God. Spare us intellectual politicians. Cameron claims to be a pragmatic One Nation Conservative, with a fairly shrewd Chancellor.HYUFD said:
Just thinking about David Cameron, and looking at a mirror image of EM, I have to agree.
He is also a much better politician, and smarter election campaigner, than Ed Miliband, as it turns out.
Cameron got fairly average O levels at Eton, Ed Miliband AABB at A Level and a 2.1, David Miliband BBBD, none are exactly intellectual titans
From ocheye --
Erm! 12 o's,From the age of seven, Cameron was educated at two independent schools: at Heatherdown School in Winkfield (near Ascot) in Berkshire, which counts Prince Andrew and Prince Edward among its alumni. Due to good academic grades, Cameron entered its top academic class almost two years early.[30] At the age of thirteen, he went to Eton College in Berkshire, following his father and elder brother.[31] His early interest was in art. Six weeks before taking his O-Levels he was caught smoking cannabis.[2] He admitted the offence and had not been involved in selling drugs, so he was not expelled, but was fined, prevented from leaving school grounds, and given a "Georgic" (a punishment which involved copying 500 lines of Latin text).[32]
Cameron passed 12 O-Levels and then studied three A-levels: History of art, History, and Economics with Politics. He obtained three 'A' grades and a '1' grade in the Scholarship Level exam in Economics and Politics.[33] The following autumn he passed the entrance exam for the University of Oxford, where he was offered an exhibition.[34]
Brasenose College, Oxford
After leaving Eton in 1984,[35] Cameron started a nine-month gap year. He worked as a researcher for his godfather Tim Rathbone, then Conservative MP for Lewes. In his three months, he attended debates in the House of Commons.[36] Through his father, he was then employed for a further three months in Hong Kong by Jardine Matheson as a 'ship jumper', an administrative post.[37]
From Flightpath --
You really are a desperate so and so aren't you? [38]0 -
I found the German Grexit plan:
http://www.sven-giegold.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/grexit_bundesregierung_non_paper_10_juli_2015.pdf
"Comments on the latest Greek proposals
On 9 July 2015 Greece has submitted a list of proposals. These proposals are based on and even fall
behind the latest aide memoire that was drafted by the Troika to conclude the review under EFSF.
However Greece was not able to conclude the review.
These proposals lack a number of paramount important reform areas to modernize the country, to
foster long term economic growth and sustainable development. Among these, labour market
reform, reform of public sector, privatisations, banking sector, structural reforms are not sufficient.
This is why these proposals can not build the basis for a completely new, three year ESM program, as
requested by Greece. We need a better, a sustainable solution, keeping the IMF on board. There are
2 avenues now: " blah blah blah.0 -
Mr. Speedy, at least they're consistent, given the last one was crackers as well.
Mr. Isam, was mentioned earlier, but it's common for things to be mentioned a few times. Sad news indeed.0 -
Grexit would be the best outcome for everyone including Greece, but I just can't believe Merkel will have the balls to do it.
Congratulations to the Finns for standing up for what they believe in.0 -
Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.0 -
Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?0 -
-
We haven't had a Scottish thread for a while...TheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?0 -
I've never believed for one minute that Grexit would happe, if it does it will be because of political pressure at home, ie getting voted out In Germany or Finland, rather than the EU forcing them out.foxinsoxuk said:
It was Syrizia's handling of the original terms that was the final nail in the coffin for trust.nigel4england said:
So why bother offering the original terms in the first place?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
I think Grexit is pretty well priced into the markets, so the effect will be much less than it was. Unlike the web of CDOs there will be little cross contamination of other markets.
However if it does happen then it will be seen as the first domino to fall, the rest will soon follow. We may not even need a referendum0 -
Corbyn?foxinsoxuk said:
We haven't had a Scottish thread for a while...TheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?0 -
I agree. The choice is Kendall or treading water at best.fitalass said:Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?
rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.
0 -
Mr. England, I fear you overestimate the potential for a domino effect. If Greece leaves, the others will cling more desperately to one another. That's my suspicion, anyway. Reason has rarely had much weight when it comes to the EU and economic matters.0
-
If agreement cannot be agreed by early this week it is Grexit by default. No one needs pull the trapdoor. There will be speculation against other countries but I think it most likely that the other Southern Euro countries will embrace the Euro more tightly so as to avoid the same fate as Greece.nigel4england said:
I've never believed for one minute that Grexit would happe, if it does it will be because of political pressure at home, ie getting voted out In Germany or Finland, rather than the EU forcing them out.foxinsoxuk said:
It was Syrizia's handling of the original terms that was the final nail in the coffin for trust.nigel4england said:
So why bother offering the original terms in the first place?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
I think Grexit is pretty well priced into the markets, so the effect will be much less than it was. Unlike the web of CDOs there will be little cross contamination of other markets.
However if it does happen then it will be seen as the first domino to fall, the rest will soon follow. We may not even need a referendum0 -
I've lost my mojo on writing Scottish threads.foxinsoxuk said:
We haven't had a Scottish thread for a while...TheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The last thread I wrote on North Britain, and not a single Nat called me a fanny turnip.
I must be doing something wrong.0 -
"That green-blooded son-of-a-b****! It's his revenge for all those arguments he lost!"TheScreamingEagles said:what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV0 -
Ah! Nope, luckier I will agree. Even with a First from Brasenose College iI would not say that he was an intellectual, or even street smart.
Cameron got fairly average O levels at Eton, Ed Miliband AABB at A Level and a 2.1, David Miliband BBBD, none are exactly intellectual titans
Erm! 12 o's,From the age of seven, Cameron was educated at two independent schools: at Heatherdown School in Winkfield (near Ascot) in Berkshire, which counts Prince Andrew and Prince Edward among its alumni. Due to good academic grades, Cameron entered its top academic class almost two years early.[30] At the age of thirteen, he went to Eton College in Berkshire, following his father and elder brother.[31] His early interest was in art. Six weeks before taking his O-Levels he was caught smoking cannabis.[2] He admitted the offence and had not been involved in selling drugs, so he was not expelled, but was fined, prevented from leaving school grounds, and given a "Georgic" (a punishment which involved copying 500 lines of Latin text).[32]
Cameron passed 12 O-Levels and then studied three A-levels: History of art, History, and Economics with Politics. He obtained three 'A' grades and a '1' grade in the Scholarship Level exam in Economics and Politics.[33] The following autumn he passed the entrance exam for the University of Oxford, where he was offered an exhibition.[34]
Brasenose College, Oxford
After leaving Eton in 1984,[35] Cameron started a nine-month gap year. He worked as a researcher for his godfather Tim Rathbone, then Conservative MP for Lewes. In his three months, he attended debates in the House of Commons.[36] Through his father, he was then employed for a further three months in Hong Kong by Jardine Matheson as a 'ship jumper', an administrative post.[37]
"School friends say Mr Cameron was never seen as a great academic - or noted for his interest in politics, beyond the "mainstream Conservative" views held by most of his classmates.
He has described his 12 O-levels as "not very good", but he gained three As at A-level, in history, history of art and economics with politics."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8661964.stm0 -
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?0 -
Twitter
Andrew Neil @afneil 7m7 minutes ago
Germans floating idea of temporary Grexit. But temporary probably = permanent.
adam seven @a7_FIN_SWE 1h1 hour ago
Finnish media reports that Germany, Holland, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia want "temporary" #Grexit0 -
I think Varoufakis has demonstrated that game theory works better as an academic exercise than a diplomatic tool.Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
Anyone who plays Germany at anything knows that they play to win.
Incidentally Syrizia is one of the most intellectual governments around, loads of academics. Just demonstrates that intellect does not always work!0 -
This is all a lesson in why one currency with a dozen or so national political systems can not work.AndyJS said:
0 -
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.
0 -
Sounds like it's all over.fitalass said:Twitter
Andrew Neil @afneil 7m7 minutes ago
Germans floating idea of temporary Grexit. But temporary probably = permanent.
adam seven @a7_FIN_SWE 1h1 hour ago
Finnish media reports that Germany, Holland, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia want "temporary" #Grexit0 -
Miss Fitalass, quite.
On Cameron being lucky: as attributes go, luck may be the single most important (if you believe people are just lucky or unlucky). Consider Heraclius. Did everything right to save Byzantium from Flavius Phocas and reconquer vast swathes of land from Chosroes, then he fell ill and Islam rose just in time to snatch it all from two exhausted empires.
Alexander and Caesar were both notably lucky too (Hannibal the reverse).0 -
Being part of a previous government did not stop Attlee, Churchill or Heath or Thatcher winning from opposition, nor did being part a part of Kinnock's Shadow Cabinet stop Blair or being a prominent part of Gaitskill's Shadow Cabinet stop Wilsonfitalass said:Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?
rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.0 -
Burnham and Cooper aren't anywhere close to Attlee, Churchill or Thatcher. And I am not sure anyone would want to be likened to Heath.HYUFD said:
Being part of a previous government did not stop Attlee, Churchill or Heath or Thatcher winning from opposition, nor did being part a part of Kinnock's Shadow Cabinet stop Blair or being a prominent part of Gaitskill's Shadow Cabinet stop Wilsonfitalass said:Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?
rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.
0 -
New LD leader this Thursday. I sent off my ballot paper on Thursday. Lamb first choice but would not be sorry if it was Farron, he had a great outing on BBC Any Questions earlier.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.0 -
A few Kippers and Tories kept on telling us during the last parliament, that Cameron was just like Heath.oxfordsimon said:
Burnham and Cooper aren't anywhere close to Attlee, Churchill or Thatcher. And I am not sure anyone would want to be likened to Heath.HYUFD said:
Being part of a previous government did not stop Attlee, Churchill or Heath or Thatcher winning from opposition, nor did being part a part of Kinnock's Shadow Cabinet stop Blair or being a prominent part of Gaitskill's Shadow Cabinet stop Wilsonfitalass said:Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?
rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she p
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.0 -
I confess I had not considered the impact the Finns and the like could have. I had assumed at the end of the day the German government had enough political capital to sell a further deal even at the cost of a hit from the public, and that would be that, particularly in light of comments from NickPalmer and others the other day about the state of the German opposition (that is, not spectacular). That other governments around the EU might well fall if a bailout is given had not occurred to me.0
-
Farron will keep the LDs in their sandal-wearing comfort zone. He is not a leader for the future.foxinsoxuk said:
New LD leader this Thursday. I sent off my ballot paper on Thursday. Lamb first choice but would not be sorry if it was Farron, he had a great outing on BBC Any Questions earlier.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.0 -
Lamb and Farronfoxinsoxuk said:
New LD leader this Thursday. I sent off my ballot paper on Thursday. Lamb first choice but would not be sorry if it was Farron, he had a great outing on BBC Any Questions earlier.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.
Two bald men fighting over a comb. Pointless.
0 -
Mr. kle4, it's almost as if the eurozone is an unworkable mess.
Mr. Simon, if Labour do elect someone who is a bit rubbish (excepting Corbyn, not sure anyone could quite rival Miliband's rubbishness) there's an opportunity for a rapid revival for the Lib Dems. But if they don't do it in 2020, then it'll become a lot more difficult. Memories of them having serious clout and being a major party will fade.
Still, a bad Labour leader would help, as would a receding SNP tide (likely but even so, Scotland's tricky for them), and UKIP buggering up campaigning (a near certainty).0 -
Depending on the Labour contest someone might be throwing them a toupee to comb too. Something to give some comfort until hair regrowth technology is invented at least.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Lamb and Farronfoxinsoxuk said:
New LD leader this Thursday. I sent off my ballot paper on Thursday. Lamb first choice but would not be sorry if it was Farron, he had a great outing on BBC Any Questions earlier.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.
Two bald men fighting over a comb. Pointless.0 -
rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.
"Being part of a previous government did not stop Attlee, Churchill or Heath or Thatcher winning from opposition, nor did being part a part of Kinnock's Shadow Cabinet stop Blair or being a prominent part of Gaitskill's Shadow Cabinet stop Wilson
Burnham and Cooper aren't anywhere close to Attlee, Churchill or Thatcher. And I am not sure anyone would want to be likened to Heath."
Heath did actually win the 1970 election and no-one can be sure what a leader is like until they get the job, Thatcher was mocked as 'Hilda' by Tory grandees in the early days of her leadership0 -
Well Cameron has won most votes in 1 hung parliament and 1 majority as Heath did so they are not as completely different in electoral terms as you may think, even if Heath did lose 2 elections as wellTheScreamingEagles said:
A few Kippers and Tories kept on telling us during the last parliament, that Cameron was just like Heath.oxfordsimon said:
Burnham and Cooper aren't anywhere close to Attlee, Churchill or Thatcher. And I am not sure anyone would want to be likened to Heath.HYUFD said:
Being part of a previous government did not stop Attlee, Churchill or Heath or Thatcher winning from opposition, nor did being part a part of Kinnock's Shadow Cabinet stop Blair or being a prominent part of Gaitskill's Shadow Cabinet stop Wilsonfitalass said:Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?
rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she p
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.
0 -
Its now Italy v Germany - who could have predicted the European Union could unravel so quickly. It looks like civil war - compelling0
-
At this weeks hustings both went down well with the audience, but I think Lamb was the better argued candidate, though Farron ahead on rhetoric.oxfordsimon said:
Farron will keep the LDs in their sandal-wearing comfort zone. He is not a leader for the future.foxinsoxuk said:
New LD leader this Thursday. I sent off my ballot paper on Thursday. Lamb first choice but would not be sorry if it was Farron, he had a great outing on BBC Any Questions earlier.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.
0 -
To be fair to those making that comparison, Cameron's best seat total has been exactly the same as Heath.TheScreamingEagles said:
A few Kippers and Tories kept on telling us during the last parliament, that Cameron was just like Heath.oxfordsimon said:
Burnham and Cooper aren't anywhere close to Attlee, Churchill or Thatcher. And I am not sure anyone would want to be likened to Heath.HYUFD said:
Being part of a previous government did not stop Attlee, Churchill or Heath or Thatcher winning from opposition, nor did being part a part of Kinnock's Shadow Cabinet stop Blair or being a prominent part of Gaitskill's Shadow Cabinet stop Wilsonfitalass said:Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?
rottenborough said:
Hmm. Not convinced, although I win if she does. Cooper would be decent opposition leader and UK might be ready for change anyway after 5 years of Osbornomics (the ticking electoral timebomb that is cutting tax credits will explode at some point).MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she p
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.0 -
Does the Greek President have the theoretical power to appoint a technocratic government if that is the only way that a Grexit can be avoided?0
-
Point 2 is wrong (i think)SeanT said:
The crucial points right now are thatkle4 said:I confess I had not considered the impact the Finns and the like could have. I had assumed at the end of the day the German government had enough political capital to sell a further deal even at the cost of a hit from the public, and that would be that, particularly in light of comments from NickPalmer and others the other day about the state of the German opposition (that is, not spectacular). That other governments around the EU might well fall if a bailout is given had not occurred to me.
1. France and Germany are not just singing different verses, they are in different choirs
2. It takes just one EZ nation to veto a new Greek bailout. At the moment there are at least six so minded
3. Time is genuinely running out
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/6199701048607416330 -
LDs outnumber Kippers in Parliament, and in local government. There is a strange unity and lack of infighting in the party, a major contrast with the kippers and Labour where defeat seems to have driven internal feuds out of control.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Lamb and Farronfoxinsoxuk said:
New LD leader this Thursday. I sent off my ballot paper on Thursday. Lamb first choice but would not be sorry if it was Farron, he had a great outing on BBC Any Questions earlier.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.
Two bald men fighting over a comb. Pointless.0 -
Mr. Eagles, ah, the joys of qualified majority voting.
But would that take money from countries who voted against it? And what percentage do the six make up (I'd guess it's well over 15%)?0 -
.0
-
If the Germans veto it, then should do it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, ah, the joys of qualified majority voting.
But would that take money from countries who voted against it? And what percentage do the six make up (I'd guess it's well over 15%)?
Yes QMV is a bit rubbish, they should conduct the vote under the greatest voting system ever created, AV.0 -
How much money is left in the ESM anyway?0
-
If he does, I wonder if the outrage at the EU forcing out another elected government would be lessened somewhat given that government appears, apparently, to have signed itself up to measures on which the public just told them not to accept, by and large. Not that would mitigate them being forced out by external forces, if they renege on what they say the people can punish them of course, but I do I do wonder.williamglenn said:Does the Greek President have the theoretical power to appoint a technocratic government if that is the only way that a Grexit can be avoided?
Although isn't a new Grand Coalition type government supposed to be unveiled in Athens on Monday? An attempt to reassure the EU not just Syrizia will be responsible for seeing reforms are actually achieved?0 -
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh yerself silly at the ClusterfEUck.....0
-
Having this site's foremost Liberal Democrat-hater venting his spleen at the party once again is going to drove traffic away in droves - rather like the usual coterie of Conservatives wittering on about how terrible all the Labour leadership contenders are and how any of them becoming leader is going to ensure another Conservative victory in 2020.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.
As a non-Conservative, my view on the Labour leadership election, apart from its length which seems excessive, is that the Labour Party isn't short of strong contenders. I do think the focus needs to be on establishing how to speak to England beyond the cities - in my part of the world, Labour got a 5% swing from the Conservatives.
Parties coming off long periods of power tend to struggle initially in opposition - it took the Conservatives eight years and three defeats to begin to understand the problem. Labour need to urgently move on from the anachronistic Blair-Brown years and those redundant arguments and start setting the agenda for the 2020s.
The Government can talk to the present but it's up to the Opposition to talk to the future and envisage the kind of State and society the 2020s will demand. That's not easy but in Opposition you have time to do it but it means a blank sheet of paper and the willingness to re-define and rethink key ideas, ideals and philosophies and that means listening to people outside the tent because they are often the most interesting and relevant.
0 -
Someone suggested the full EU meeting tomorrow will be cancelled due to the impasse but others say it will be put before the 28 leaders tomorrow. Who is right0
-
I'll go with Vernon Bogdanor's judgement, if you don't mind.HYUFD said:
Cameron got fairly average O levels at Eton, Ed Miliband AABB at A Level and a 2.1, David Miliband BBBD, none are exactly intellectual titansOchEye said:
Ah! Nope, luckier I will agree. Even with a First from Brasenose College iI would not say that he was an intellectual, or even street smart.SeanT said:
Oh, Cameron is no intellectual either. But, unlike Ed, he doesn't claim to be. Thank God. Spare us intellectual politicians. Cameron claims to be a pragmatic One Nation Conservative, with a fairly shrewd Chancellor.OchEye said:
Just thinking about David Cameron, and looking at a mirror image of EM, I have to agree.SeanT said:
Ed Miliband is not an intellectual. I cannot pinpoint a significant new idea for which he can claim ownership. Not one. Not a sausage. He just serves up warmed-over socialism, the ideological leftovers of the Seventies, covered in a sauce of opportunism.felix said:
Ed had intellect???? I know he had intellectual self-confidence but intellect? Really?MikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
He is also a much better politician, and smarter election campaigner, than Ed Miliband, as it turns out.
He rated Cameron as among the smartest students he had taught. That means that Cameron is brighter than me so he must be damn good
0 -
I think what broke the trust was Tsirpas telling them he would need to have a referendum but he would recommend the people vote 'yes'.nigel4england said:
So why bother offering the original terms in the first place?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No one trusts themJEO said:Why would Germany and Finland say no now? Hasn't Greece just agreed to the terms they previously offered?
Then walking out the door and doing the opposite.0 -
A good Labour leader is not necessarily a disaster for the LDs, they doubled their seat total in 1997 when Blair led LabourMorris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, it's almost as if the eurozone is an unworkable mess.
Mr. Simon, if Labour do elect someone who is a bit rubbish (excepting Corbyn, not sure anyone could quite rival Miliband's rubbishness) there's an opportunity for a rapid revival for the Lib Dems. But if they don't do it in 2020, then it'll become a lot more difficult. Memories of them having serious clout and being a major party will fade.
Still, a bad Labour leader would help, as would a receding SNP tide (likely but even so, Scotland's tricky for them), and UKIP buggering up campaigning (a near certainty).0 -
From what I hear the Greek government is now asking for 100 billion euros from the ESM.
That's 1/7th of the entire capital that the ESM has, or more that 60% of Greek GDP.
That would push the greek debt to GDP ratio to above 230%, a world record.0 -
He can win back some tactical voters in Tory-LD marginals which is what they really needoxfordsimon said:
Farron will keep the LDs in their sandal-wearing comfort zone. He is not a leader for the future.foxinsoxuk said:
New LD leader this Thursday. I sent off my ballot paper on Thursday. Lamb first choice but would not be sorry if it was Farron, he had a great outing on BBC Any Questions earlier.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?Flightpathl said:
Game theoryTheScreamingEagles said:Now that Mike has spiked my peak Kipper piece, what do you want the morning thread on
1) AV
or
2) The greatest political strategist in the country?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.0 -
What we're seeing is classic example of northern vs southern European mindsets. South is all about honour and "not humiliating a country", north is about paying your bills on time.0
-
The Greek Analyst
@GreekAnalyst
Schaeuble seemingly going ultra-hardcore tonight. Whether justifiably or not, this will be painful for #Greece. Let's hope for a miracle.
Jul. 11, 2015ReplyRetweetFavorite
0 -
Are you saying I'm a Lib Dem hater?stodge said:
Having this site's foremost Liberal Democrat-hater venting his spleen at the party once again is going to drove traffic away in droves - rather like the usual coterie of Conservatives wittering on about how terrible all the Labour leadership contenders are and how any of them becoming leader is going to ensure another Conservative victory in 2020.TCPoliticalBetting said:
what do you want the morning thread on?
The future for the LDs at GE2020.
As a non-Conservative, my view on the Labour leadership election, apart from its length which seems excessive, is that the Labour Party isn't short of strong contenders. I do think the focus needs to be on establishing how to speak to England beyond the cities - in my part of the world, Labour got a 5% swing from the Conservatives.
Parties coming off long periods of power tend to struggle initially in opposition - it took the Conservatives eight years and three defeats to begin to understand the problem. Labour need to urgently move on from the anachronistic Blair-Brown years and those redundant arguments and start setting the agenda for the 2020s.
The Government can talk to the present but it's up to the Opposition to talk to the future and envisage the kind of State and society the 2020s will demand. That's not easy but in Opposition you have time to do it but it means a blank sheet of paper and the willingness to re-define and rethink key ideas, ideals and philosophies and that means listening to people outside the tent because they are often the most interesting and relevant.
0 -
-
It seems that unanimity can be suspended under article 4(4) of the European Stability Mechanism Treaty, which provides:SeanT said:Legalistically there might be an escape clause but politically? Would the eurozone overrule a sovereign member and basically FORCE them to lend billions to Greece?
That is a recipe for the break up of the entire single currency, not just the departure of one enfeebled member.
But who knows. Extraordinary times &c[A]n emergency voting procedure shall be used where the Commission and the ECB both conclude that a failure to urgently adopt a decision to grant or implement financial assistance ... would threaten the economic and financial sustainability of the euro area. The adoption of a decision by mutual agreement by the Board of Governors referred to in points (f) and (g) of Article 5(6) and the Board of Directors under that emergency procedure requires a qualified majority of 85% of the votes cast.
It is likely in any event that whatever "humanitarian assistance" is granted to Greece, whether or not it leaves the Euro, will be adopted by the Council of Ministers on the basis on qualified majority voting, and that every EU member state will be liable on a pro rata basis.0 -
Blair was not a member of a previous Labour Government, and we now now live in a 24 hour digital age where politicians have never had more exposure as a result. And that really does have a huge impact, along with the electorates growing cynicism and contempt towards our political class.HYUFD said:
Being part of a previous government did not stop Attlee, Churchill or Heath or Thatcher winning from opposition, nor did being part a part of Kinnock's Shadow Cabinet stop Blair or being a prominent part of Gaitskill's Shadow Cabinet stop Wilsonfitalass said:Neither Burnham or Cooper were the answer to Labour's 2010 GE defeat, and they are definitely not the answer to Labour's current woes following another GE defeat five years later. Especially when they have both been an integral part of that Shadow Cabinet and Labour opposition led by Ed Milliband, and they carry very similar baggage from the previous Labour Government to boot. It took the Conservative party three GE defeats to recognise this problem following their own catastrophic defeat in 1997. Is the Labour party planning on burying its head in the sand and making the same mistakes until it gets tired of being an ineffective Opposition who keeps losing GE's and finally wants to be a responsible party of Government again?
rottenborough said:
SNIPMikeSmithson said:
Kendall is the only one of the four capable of being leader on May 9th 2020 two days after the next election. Burnham is like EdM but with a Liverpool accent and without the intellect.Flightpathl said:
Kendall is giving labour an opportunity. To take that opportunity she does not need to win, but come second. If she is clearly rejected then its Labour you should feel sorry for. For her, if she believes in a direction for Labour she needs to put down a calling cardkle4 said:I actually feel a bit sorry for Kendall. Even if she didn't think she could actually win, if she put in a really good showing that would do good things for her career and future chances perhaps, but if she occupies the last slot behind Corbyn, it looks like a gamble that really did not pay off.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?0 -
Different countries are reflecting the democratic wishes of their peoples, and trying to find an agreement. It is democracy in action. To describe it as civil war is gross hyperbole.SeanT said:God what a miserable disastrous grotesque deformed misconceived Picnic of Shit the EU is.
I remember when I first came on PB I was a ferocious sceptic. My younger, angrier self was quite correct. The EU is awful in so many ways, one loses count. Corrupt, malign, inert, ugly, undemocratic, silly, clumsy, impoverishing, and pernicious.
Yes, it's better than WAR, but that's just about all you can say for it. Every europhile in history should be flogged at the triangle until the ants steal away bloody gobbets of their flesh.
0 -
The same who gave Greece 300 billion euros in the past 5 years.SeanT said:
Greece reminds me of me, when I was a junkie.Speedy said:From what I hear the Greek government is now asking for 100 billion euros from the ESM.
That's 1/7th of the entire capital that the ESM has, or more that 60% of Greek GDP.
Except that instead of asking for a tenner, and saying "I'll pay you back on Monday, promise Mum", Greece is asking for.... one hundred billion euros, and saying they'll repay Germany from their housing benefit, probly like.
Who in the admittedly shrinking world of human sanity would give Greece and Syriza ONE HUNDRED BILLION EUROS?0
