politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Sparrow, the pollster who did most to change post-1992
Comments
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Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.0 -
Back on thread - I've read Nick's article several times and remain seriously discomfited by it (where I'm not confused by it!). Is he saying that as separate polls converge, each of course with their own distinct methodolgy (so should that be happening in the first place?!), that affects those actually being polled to provide the 'correct' answer, which might be different to how they will actually vote on the day?
Or - as it feels to me - the pollsters themselves, because of subtle pressure from clients, media, commentariat 'wisdom', whatever etc, chose to ensure that their results accorded close to the perceived average, presumably by various 'adjustings' at the last minute. TSE has reported that ICM, for one, has vigorously denied that this took place in the last week, when its hitherto findings of the Conservatives someway ahead suddenly went into sharp reverse and catastrophically erroneous gear on polling day. Others did the same.
Dan Hodges is scathing about the herd factor which he contends simply isn't possible statitically. I'm afraid Nick's piece does little as credible refutation.0 -
If ICM didn't herd then they were really, really, really unlucky.JohnO said:TSE has reported that ICM, for one, has vigorously denied that this took place in the last week, when its hitherto findings of the Conservatives someway ahead suddenly went into sharp reverse and catastrophically erroneous gear on polling day. Others did the same.
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Haven't you misremembered? Or may be I have....but my disinct recollection is that the (two/three) occasions when Survation did present a ballot paper, the results proved as wildy inaccurate as those of their rivals. However, they did conduct a polling day survey which was strikingly close to the outcome....but their bosses and clients refused to publish it because it conflicted with the consensus! Utterly shameful.volcanopete said:The one new piece of polling methadology which comes out as intact and promising is the exercise Survation did which was to put a mock ballot paper in front of the respondent and ask them to replicate what they would do in the ballot box.It was one of the few polls which got the 2015 GE correct.The one factor which remains peculiar is the usually reliable local election guides which pointed toward a tie.The only thing to explain this is late swing toward the Tories,maybe even last minute switching in the booth.
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Really like this sentence:
"In short, beware the average, it is only better than the worst and worse than the best."
Applicable in so many situations.0 -
*ahem*ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
(as it is, I don't particularly bet - I made a few fun bets on here and ended up £85 plus a lunch minus a beer - with only one loss: pre-Carswell, I bet that UKIP would end up with zero seats, and if he hadn't defected I'd have won that too)0 -
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.0 -
Anyone care to hazard a guess as to when the first results due in?0
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Mr. D, given my earlier error, 7-8pm seems possible.0
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In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.0 -
The pb heroine, never let it be forgotten, on the LibDem wipeout, was AudreyAnne, who was promptly banned and probably remains so.Charles said:
*ahem*ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
(as it is, I don't particularly bet - I made a few fun bets on here and ended up £85 plus a lunch minus a beer - with only one loss: pre-Carswell, I bet that UKIP would end up with zero seats, and if he hadn't defected I'd have won that too)0 -
Thanks, the original Mr. DMorris_Dancer said:Mr. D, given my earlier error, 7-8pm seems possible.
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I think Scotland proved that, when they think it matters, the young do turn out. So it's too simplistic to say they won't vote in the Greek referendum.Speedy said:
If I didn't knew that the Economist is always wrong, then I would have called it already for NO due to young voters actually voting instead of going for a swim.MP_SE said:A bold prediction:
https://twitter.com/TheEIU_Europe/status/6177041399513415690 -
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Greece links
Results:
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
TV:
http://webtv.ert.gr/ert1-live/
Polls close in 5 mins, not sure if exit poll or not.0 -
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.0 -
Keeping my fingers crossed that 'Oxi' will win - it will be a historic moment for the whole EU project if so, that in spite of all the Brussels meddling in what should be a solely Greek democratic process, the Greek people will put 2 fingers up to interference from outside, and provide a vote of hope over one of the tireless fears of the Eurocracy.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34460
Whilst I support a move to cut the funding of the Beeb, it would be far better to do it across the board for everyone, instead of for just over 75's. I'm getting sick and tired of the approach of the government in supporting pensioners over everyone else. We can do without age discimination in our politics. Gordon Brown vastly extended gimmicks like free over 60 bus passes and the like, and now the Tories are just extending it ever more, and borrowing more in the process to do it.0 -
There is a widespread view that you're an enemy of human decency, if you aren't left wing, in Western countries. That's particularly prevalent on social media, and throughout the Establishment in most Western countries.ydoethur said:
Interesting. That must certainly have been the case here in Cannock, where there was evidently a lower-middle class bedrock of Conservative support carefully hiding itself (simply because there is absolutely no other way of explaining the result). It is difficult to imagine, however, that any wealthy, trendy lefties would not have been thrilled at the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP. In my experience such people are fervently anti-English and would love the idea of a bunch of rabid Scottish nationalists bossing them around, with a certain lack of awareness of the irony. As for Labour under Ed - well, if we take a class analysis, he IS a wealthy, trendy lefty and I think they loved him!tlg86 said:
On a different point, I've been wondering about shy Tories. The picture in mind of such a voter is a lower middle/working class voter who is inclined to agree with the stuff Labour say about inequality, but when it comes to it they have to put their family first and that means voting for who they trust with the economy. But I wonder if there is a good chunk of quite well off people who generally wouldn't vote Tory because they are trendy lefties and it doesn't matter who is in power as it wouldn't affect them. But this time, when faced with Ed propped up by the SNP they thought "no ******* way".
My guess is that it was the working classes and lower middle classes who switched from Labour. Looking at all the election data, the swings in the seats the Conservatives won - Telford, Southampton Itchen, Plymouth Moor View - plus the hefty swings in Stroud/Gloucester, Swindon, Warwickshire etc - would support that. The question has to be exactly how the polls all missed this and whether they were (A) incompetent or (B) being lied to. Your view seems to me to be a reasonable explanation for the latter.
Which means right wing support is systematically understated in voting surveys. You don't stick your head above the parapet, when it could cost you your job.0 -
Those under the age of 30 had a higher share of the vote than those over 65, it's very rare but this time it happened.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Speedy, on this very site I read that pensioners were for Yes by about 70:30. Whichever way it goes, there may well be a rather fraught social situation in Greece afterwards.
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Since I'm feeling charitable...JohnO said:Back on thread - I've read Nick's article several times and remain seriously discomfited by it (where I'm not confused by it!). Is he saying that as separate polls converge, each of course with their own distinct methodolgy (so should that be happening in the first place?!), that affects those actually being polled to provide the 'correct' answer, which might be different to how they will actually vote on the day?
Or - as it feels to me - the pollsters themselves, because of subtle pressure from clients, media, commentariat 'wisdom', whatever etc, chose to ensure that their results accorded close to the perceived average, presumably by various 'adjustings' at the last minute. TSE has reported that ICM, for one, has vigorously denied that this took place in the last week, when its hitherto findings of the Conservatives someway ahead suddenly went into sharp reverse and catastrophically erroneous gear on polling day. Others did the same.
Dan Hodges is scathing about the herd factor which he contends simply isn't possible statitically. I'm afraid Nick's piece does little as credible refutation.
I think what he's saying is that as pollsters work internally to refine their methodologies they tend to use the consensus of polls as an accurate benchmark.
Consequently they tend to favour methodological changes that move towards the consensus rather than against it. I don't think this is conscious bias, so much as comfort in numbers.0 -
Proximity can breed contempt and I accept that he may have matured in the last 10 years but I never saw anything in Chris Leslie when he was my MP to suggest he was cabinet material never mind Chancellor of the Exchequer. I've not changed from the view. If I could manoeuvre him into a position where he had to resign (as Chairman of the Better Bingley Campaign), I'm quite sure that other, more skilled politicians could run rings round him.williamglenn said:0 -
Yes - I too found Mr. Senior very tedious - interesting I've not noticed him on here for some time. AudreyAnne was spot on and should have been given more credit on here.JohnO said:
The pb heroine, never let it be forgotten, on the LibDem wipeout, was AudreyAnne, who was promptly banned and probably remains so.Charles said:
*ahem*ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
(as it is, I don't particularly bet - I made a few fun bets on here and ended up £85 plus a lunch minus a beer - with only one loss: pre-Carswell, I bet that UKIP would end up with zero seats, and if he hadn't defected I'd have won that too)0 -
GPO had NO by 3%.
It's an opinion poll, but I thing that NO really won.0 -
I think that what Nick is saying in the header is that no amount of weighting and adjustment can make up for a poor sample as any weighting etc carries assumptions about what the "correct answer" should be. Which I think is pretty much what I said in my first PB posting about 6 years ago.0
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Schultz is elected, isn't he?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
Admitted his specific post is an indirect election, but he's an elected German MEP.
And I think his comment is a statement of fact - arguably he shouldn't comment on another countries' elections, but equally the EU is an active participant in this situation, so I think it's not unfair that he should, at least, answer questions.0 -
If the Syriza government fell off the back of a banking collapse after a No, I'd anticipate the EU offering a new deal and the ECB providing liquidity at a price the new government would be willing to accept (which frankly would be just about anything).foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.0 -
Betfair, which not so long ago was not far from evens, now thinks a Yes win is 5/1... in fact it look like few can be found to back it.0
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His posting seems to stop abruptly after May 7th. I wonder what happened that day to cause that............. titter.felix said:
Yes - I too found Mr. Senior very tedious - interesting I've not noticed him on here for some time. AudreyAnne was spot on and should have been given more credit on here.JohnO said:
The pb heroine, never let it be forgotten, on the LibDem wipeout, was AudreyAnne, who was promptly banned and probably remains so.Charles said:
*ahem*ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
(as it is, I don't particularly bet - I made a few fun bets on here and ended up £85 plus a lunch minus a beer - with only one loss: pre-Carswell, I bet that UKIP would end up with zero seats, and if he hadn't defected I'd have won that too)0 -
5 out of 6 polls calling it for Oxi! And the other poll has no somewhere between 49.5-54%. What a historic moment if true. Down with Brussels and all your meddling, your project is crumbling apart and deservedly so.0
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That's true. My roots are deep in the Summer Country, so I can feel the shifts in mood in my bones. But AudreyAnne was spot on in the rest of the country. Her banning was, and remains, shameful.JohnO said:
The pb heroine, never let it be forgotten, on the LibDem wipeout, was AudreyAnne, who was promptly banned and probably remains so.Charles said:
*ahem*ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
(as it is, I don't particularly bet - I made a few fun bets on here and ended up £85 plus a lunch minus a beer - with only one loss: pre-Carswell, I bet that UKIP would end up with zero seats, and if he hadn't defected I'd have won that too)0 -
If they have an established methodolgy and one which presumably they trusted, to modify it in the few days prior to polling day on the basis their competors' results is simply indefensible. And thank goodness that cowardice has made the lot of them look complete fools. If only one had the courage of their statistical convictions.Charles said:
Since I'm feeling charitable...JohnO said:Back on thread - I've read Nick's article several times and remain seriously discomfited by it (where I'm not confused by it!). Is he saying that as separate polls converge, each of course with their own distinct methodolgy (so should that be happening in the first place?!), that affects those actually being polled to provide the 'correct' answer, which might be different to how they will actually vote on the day?
Or - as it feels to me - the pollsters themselves, because of subtle pressure from clients, media, commentariat 'wisdom', whatever etc, chose to ensure that their results accorded close to the perceived average, presumably by various 'adjustings' at the last minute. TSE has reported that ICM, for one, has vigorously denied that this took place in the last week, when its hitherto findings of the Conservatives someway ahead suddenly went into sharp reverse and catastrophically erroneous gear on polling day. Others did the same.
Dan Hodges is scathing about the herd factor which he contends simply isn't possible statitically. I'm afraid Nick's piece does little as credible refutation.
I think what he's saying is that as pollsters work internally to refine their methodologies they tend to use the consensus of polls as an accurate benchmark.
Consequently they tend to favour methodological changes that move towards the consensus rather than against it. I don't think this is conscious bias, so much as comfort in numbers.0 -
Mr. Felix, hopefully there'll be an amnesty sooner or later.
Mr. Herdson, you devilish Machiavellian fellow, you!0 -
Overall, not many Lib Dem votes went Conservative. But, loads went Labour and UKIP. which suited the Conservatives fine in seats where the party was second to the Lib Dems.Charles said:
*ahem*ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
(as it is, I don't particularly bet - I made a few fun bets on here and ended up £85 plus a lunch minus a beer - with only one loss: pre-Carswell, I bet that UKIP would end up with zero seats, and if he hadn't defected I'd have won that too)0 -
"Pollster GPO estimates that the No vote has a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Similar margins are being predicted on Greek TV"0
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That is not something that could happen overnight. It would take weeks (or longer) for fresh General Elections and the formation of a new coalition government before negotiations could restart.david_herdson said:
If the Syriza government fell off the back of a banking collapse after a No, I'd anticipate the EU offering a new deal and the ECB providing liquidity at a price the new government would be willing to accept (which frankly would be just about anything).foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.0 -
Over the last couple of weeks, I have learn that the Danish and the Greek for "exit poll" is, er, "exit poll"...0
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From the BBC livefeed:
"Although the first estimates will come in shortly, a first indication of the results won't emerge until 19:00 BST. According to Mega TV, a proper indication will be clear only once results are in from 10% of polling stations. Even then, there will be a margin of error. "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-33400127
Edited extra bit: off for now, may return later. Shall keep an eye on the Greek situation, of course.0 -
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.0 -
As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb0 -
AIUI, after 2020 it will be up to the Beeb whether they maintain the concession of free TV licenses for over 75s...hunchman said:Keeping my fingers crossed that 'Oxi' will win - it will be a historic moment for the whole EU project if so, that in spite of all the Brussels meddling in what should be a solely Greek democratic process, the Greek people will put 2 fingers up to interference from outside, and provide a vote of hope over one of the tireless fears of the Eurocracy.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34460
Whilst I support a move to cut the funding of the Beeb, it would be far better to do it across the board for everyone, instead of for just over 75's. I'm getting sick and tired of the approach of the government in supporting pensioners over everyone else. We can do without age discimination in our politics. Gordon Brown vastly extended gimmicks like free over 60 bus passes and the like, and now the Tories are just extending it ever more, and borrowing more in the process to do it.0 -
Very strong move to NO on Betfair. It has dropped to 1.15 in the last few minutes. (Now back to 1.19 but still very much odds on)TheWhiteRabbit said:"Pollster GPO estimates that the No vote has a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Similar margins are being predicted on Greek TV"
I still think it will be a decisive YES based on the elderly voting and shy conservatives.0 -
A sub-52/48+ result either way would (will?) be the worst of all worlds, providing the losing side with a sense that they were cheated given the confusion of the question and lack of a campaign (and if it's No, the abuse of state media).0
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50:50 broadly is a recipe from prolonged friction.0
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Well you could make good money if you thought so!!Barnesian said:
Very strong move to NO on Betfair. It has dropped to 1.15 in the last few minutes.TheWhiteRabbit said:"Pollster GPO estimates that the No vote has a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Similar margins are being predicted on Greek TV"
I still think it will be a decisive YES based on the elderly voting and shy conservatives.0 -
I think the 75% of Greeks who want to stay in the Euro will be pretty unhappy with Syrizia pretty quickly.Charles said:
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
Going to the Drachma does not get rid of the debt, it just devalues every asset in Greece.0 -
It would take weeks for new elections; a new government could be formed far more quickly (even if it's only a caretaker government until the ensuing election).foxinsoxuk said:
That is not something that could happen overnight. It would take weeks (or longer) for fresh General Elections and the formation of a new coalition government before negotiations could restart.david_herdson said:
If the Syriza government fell off the back of a banking collapse after a No, I'd anticipate the EU offering a new deal and the ECB providing liquidity at a price the new government would be willing to accept (which frankly would be just about anything).foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.0 -
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
0 -
Looks like the polls have a narrow 'No' - worst of all possible results?
Edit: NB these are opinion polls of unknown timing, NOT exit polls as we would understand them here.
https://twitter.com/OpenEurope/status/617726457813594112/photo/10 -
It does feel far too big a move based on the back of a few phone polls (not exit polls, note) showing leads of only small single-figures.Barnesian said:
Very strong move to NO on Betfair. It has dropped to 1.15 in the last few minutes. (Now back to 1.19 but still very much odds on)TheWhiteRabbit said:"Pollster GPO estimates that the No vote has a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Similar margins are being predicted on Greek TV"
I still think it will be a decisive YES based on the elderly voting and shy conservatives.0 -
There would be no tenable government* without new elections (short of mass defections from Syrizia). It would be like Miliband trying to form a government after a coalition collapse in the last parliament.david_herdson said:
It would take weeks for new elections; a new government could be formed far more quickly (even if it's only a caretaker government until the ensuing election).foxinsoxuk said:
That is not something that could happen overnight. It would take weeks (or longer) for fresh General Elections and the formation of a new coalition government before negotiations could restart.david_herdson said:
If the Syriza government fell off the back of a banking collapse after a No, I'd anticipate the EU offering a new deal and the ECB providing liquidity at a price the new government would be willing to accept (which frankly would be just about anything).foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
*or at least democratic one. A military junta to maintain order while fresh elections occur could be possible.0 -
He's referring to ongoing tweaking over years, rather than the changes in the days before an election, which - to my mind - haven't been satisfactorily explained yetJohnO said:
If they have an established methodolgy and one which presumably they trusted, to modify it in the few days prior to polling day on the basis their competors' results is simply indefensible. And thank goodness that cowardice has made the lot of them look complete fools. If only one had the courage of their statistical convictions.Charles said:
Since I'm feeling charitable...JohnO said:Back on thread - I've read Nick's article several times and remain seriously discomfited by it (where I'm not confused by it!). Is he saying that as separate polls converge, each of course with their own distinct methodolgy (so should that be happening in the first place?!), that affects those actually being polled to provide the 'correct' answer, which might be different to how they will actually vote on the day?
Or - as it feels to me - the pollsters themselves, because of subtle pressure from clients, media, commentariat 'wisdom', whatever etc, chose to ensure that their results accorded close to the perceived average, presumably by various 'adjustings' at the last minute. TSE has reported that ICM, for one, has vigorously denied that this took place in the last week, when its hitherto findings of the Conservatives someway ahead suddenly went into sharp reverse and catastrophically erroneous gear on polling day. Others did the same.
Dan Hodges is scathing about the herd factor which he contends simply isn't possible statitically. I'm afraid Nick's piece does little as credible refutation.
I think what he's saying is that as pollsters work internally to refine their methodologies they tend to use the consensus of polls as an accurate benchmark.
Consequently they tend to favour methodological changes that move towards the consensus rather than against it. I don't think this is conscious bias, so much as comfort in numbers.0 -
They won't be rejoining the Euro once they finally leave. As for talk of a crawling peg, doesn't anyone ever learn from economic history. No 'peg' has lasted the course of time - everything moves eventually. The Swiss couldn't defend their peg with the Euro, we couldn't defend the pound in the ERM, Bretton Woods fixed gold price at $35 didn't last. You can go on and on. As the Euro is constituted currently, it is effectively a 'peg' of all the member countries, without a consolidation of all the members debts into an overall eurozone debt, instead of all the member countries having their own debt.Charles said:
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
Following the RT coverage, its good to see that they are showing the Portugese marching in Lisbon for Oxi, our pathetic mainstream news coverage has completed neglected that and the Austrians now getting enough voters together for a debate in parliament on EU membership. As for the BBC, it long since gave up on offering balanced news coverage on topics like the EU, not to mention AGW.0 -
I've decided having banked my £1 profit from backing both horses with Ladbrokes to sit this one out!david_herdson said:
It does feel far too big a move based on the back of a few phone polls (not exit polls, note) showing leads of only small single-figures.Barnesian said:
Very strong move to NO on Betfair. It has dropped to 1.15 in the last few minutes. (Now back to 1.19 but still very much odds on)TheWhiteRabbit said:"Pollster GPO estimates that the No vote has a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Similar margins are being predicted on Greek TV"
I still think it will be a decisive YES based on the elderly voting and shy conservatives.0 -
Indeed. There would have to be new elections but if Syriza resigned - which unless they called new elections themselves, which they have no reason to, would be the only reason for new elections - there'd almost certainly be a caretaker government as constitutionally mandated for as happened after the inconclusive May 2012 poll.foxinsoxuk said:
There would be no tenable government without new elections (short of mass defections from Syrizia). It would be like Miliband trying to form a government after a coalition collapse in the last parliament.david_herdson said:
It would take weeks for new elections; a new government could be formed far more quickly (even if it's only a caretaker government until the ensuing election).foxinsoxuk said:
That is not something that could happen overnight. It would take weeks (or longer) for fresh General Elections and the formation of a new coalition government before negotiations could restart.david_herdson said:
If the Syriza government fell off the back of a banking collapse after a No, I'd anticipate the EU offering a new deal and the ECB providing liquidity at a price the new government would be willing to accept (which frankly would be just about anything).foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.0 -
I have bet accordingly. We'll soon see!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Well you could make good money if you thought so!!Barnesian said:
Very strong move to NO on Betfair. It has dropped to 1.15 in the last few minutes.TheWhiteRabbit said:"Pollster GPO estimates that the No vote has a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Similar margins are being predicted on Greek TV"
I still think it will be a decisive YES based on the elderly voting and shy conservatives.
I'm hoping for a NO but if it is YES I make a bit of money.0 -
What you do is write down the debt by more than the devaluation, and then re-enter the Euro at a much more competitive exchange rate. It's what Italy did with the ERM in 1992, for instance. Euro valuations for Greek assets don't matter so much unless you have Euro-denominated debt: I've no idea whether this is an issue in Greece (it was a real problem in CEE, for instance, where there was a culture of borrowing in Swissies to buy local currency assets in order to arbitrage the interest rate differentials).foxinsoxuk said:
I think the 75% of Greeks who want to stay in the Euro will be pretty unhappy with Syrizia pretty quickly.Charles said:
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
Going to the Drachma does not get rid of the debt, it just devalues every asset in Greece.0 -
If you view both results as a disaster, then how would you have voted today if you had had a vote?!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
The sooner Greece exits the Euro the better, just as it will be the case for Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, France.......and eventually members in the core. In the Great Depression, those that got off the Gold Standard first did better like Britain in 1931. Shackling your economy to a fixed price throughout history has never worked out well, why are political leaders so dumb as to repeat mistakes over and over again?0 -
I have placed £2 on Yes.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I've decided having banked my £1 profit from backing both horses with Ladbrokes to sit this one out!david_herdson said:
It does feel far too big a move based on the back of a few phone polls (not exit polls, note) showing leads of only small single-figures.Barnesian said:
Very strong move to NO on Betfair. It has dropped to 1.15 in the last few minutes. (Now back to 1.19 but still very much odds on)TheWhiteRabbit said:"Pollster GPO estimates that the No vote has a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Similar margins are being predicted on Greek TV"
I still think it will be a decisive YES based on the elderly voting and shy conservatives.0 -
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
0 -
I think that most Greek debt is owed externally in Euros. So will increase in nominal terms with a devaluation.Charles said:
What you do is write down the debt by more than the devaluation, and then re-enter the Euro at a much more competitive exchange rate. It's what Italy did with the ERM in 1992, for instance. Euro valuations for Greek assets don't matter so much unless you have Euro-denominated debt: I've no idea whether this is an issue in Greece (it was a real problem in CEE, for instance, where there was a culture of borrowing in Swissies to buy local currency assets in order to arbitrage the interest rate differentials).foxinsoxuk said:
I think the 75% of Greeks who want to stay in the Euro will be pretty unhappy with Syrizia pretty quickly.Charles said:
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
Going to the Drachma does not get rid of the debt, it just devalues every asset in Greece.0 -
I reckon the 'leslie' and 'cr' sound have subliminally affected your eyes...chestnut said:
Not identical, but there's a resemblance, even to the skewed squint in the smile.isam said:I don't get it... You're not trying to say they look alike?
Mind you when I posted my original comment I thought it was Ted Rogers, so maybe it's my eyes that are on the blink!0 -
Apparently Tsipras and Varoufakis are packing their bags for a trip to Brussels. If they want to stay in power they should probably stay in Greece. Or maybe they're doing a runner before it turns really nasty.0
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Wouldn't that give the green light for every other government in a similar situation to follow suit?Charles said:
What you do is write down the debt by more than the devaluation, and then re-enter the Euro at a much more competitive exchange rate. It's what Italy did with the ERM in 1992, for instance. Euro valuations for Greek assets don't matter so much unless you have Euro-denominated debt: I've no idea whether this is an issue in Greece (it was a real problem in CEE, for instance, where there was a culture of borrowing in Swissies to buy local currency assets in order to arbitrage the interest rate differentials).foxinsoxuk said:
I think the 75% of Greeks who want to stay in the Euro will be pretty unhappy with Syrizia pretty quickly.Charles said:
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
Going to the Drachma does not get rid of the debt, it just devalues every asset in Greece.
I'm still of the opinion that Grexit = Greece leaving the EU. But that's still less likely than the Syriza government falling within at most two months off the back of public pressure if a No is confirmed. You can only keep the Athens Metro running for free for so long: someone has to pay the drivers and supply the electricity.0 -
Packing their bags to get away from the pitchfork weilding mob more like!tlg86 said:Apparently Tsipras and Varoufakis are packing their bags for a trip to Brussels. If they want to stay in power they should probably stay in Greece. Or maybe they're doing a runner before it turns really nasty.
0 -
Tsipras got his state address.SeanT said:Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.
It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.
Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.
Cameron will be leading the troops here.
Reason to think that he could can draw on party allegiance will carry through.0 -
I would have voted yes,as in my opinion it is the least worst outcome,but I am not a Greek.hunchman said:
If you view both results as a disaster, then how would you have voted today if you had had a vote?!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
The sooner Greece exits the Euro the better, just as it will be the case for Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, France.......and eventually members in the core. In the Great Depression, those that got off the Gold Standard first did better like Britain in 1931. Shackling your economy to a fixed price throughout history has never worked out well, why are political leaders so dumb as to repeat mistakes over and over again?
Worse? in Liverpool we had "worse,worserer, and worserest"
0 -
Totally agree with you SeanT. Voters have simply had enough of the endless lies and subjugation from Brussels. And as for a Grexit having no implications for the rest of the Eurozone, none of the Eurozone simply have a clue. This is the first of a domino effect that will tear the Euro apart, however much they'll do everything in their declining power base to try and hold everything together. History repeatedly shows that once you go against the will of the people, sooner or later they will get their way. And the longer they have to wait for that change, the more violent the change that eventually erupts.SeanT said:Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.
It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.
Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.0 -
I think the resulting chaos and confusion is more likely to make the EZ countries circle the wagons rather than start shooting each other.SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*0 -
It's reminiscent of an episode of The Simpsons where Homer becomes Springfield's Sanitation Commissioner.foxinsoxuk said:
Packing their bags to get away from the pitchfork weilding mob more like!tlg86 said:Apparently Tsipras and Varoufakis are packing their bags for a trip to Brussels. If they want to stay in power they should probably stay in Greece. Or maybe they're doing a runner before it turns really nasty.
0 -
The will of the Greek people is to stay in the Euro by a 3:1 ratio. When they find out that Tsiprias has been lying to them about voting No and keeping the Euro the mob will turn.hunchman said:
Totally agree with you SeanT. Voters have simply had enough of the endless lies and subjugation from Brussels. And as for a Grexit having no implications for the rest of the Eurozone, none of the Eurozone simply have a clue. This is the first of a domino effect that will tear the Euro apart, however much they'll do everything in their declining power base to try and hold everything together. History repeatedly shows that once you go against the will of the people, sooner or later they will get their way. And the longer they have to wait for that change, the more violent the change that eventually erupts.SeanT said:Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.
It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.
Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.0 -
Really? I have just got back from Asturias (lovely place!) and the locals said no such thing, indeed were pro Euro and EU.SeanT said:
I doubt we will see tanks crossing the Rhine - no doubt they'll put on a show of unity, for now. But dark cracks are opening up, deep inside the European Project. Dangerous fissures in the foundations. Like the Towers of 9/11, which looked secure, albeit singed - until they fell down completely.foxinsoxuk said:
I think the resulting chaos and confusion is more likely to make the EZ countries circle the wagons rather than start shooting each other.SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
Incidentally I've just spent the last month in France and Italy (Corsica and Friuli to be precise). One reason for my absence here.
It's the first time intelligent Europeans have ever said to me (with a rueful grimace) "You English were right about the euro, all along".0 -
Nick doesn't agree with Martin Boon that ICM should just quit political polling I take it?0
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Shooting out then rather than in the corral.foxinsoxuk said:
I think the resulting chaos and confusion is more likely to make the EZ countries circle the wagons rather than start shooting each other.0 -
I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.0 -
It is like Salmond and the indyref. He was never exposed on his lie about keeping the pound because he lost. Imagine what the Scottish reaction would have been if Scotland voted for independence and Salmonds promises and reassurances vanished with the morning mist.SeanT said:
Has he been lying to them? We have no idea. See the more recent mood music from Brussels (i.e. yesterday and today). Lots of Eurocrats - and continental politicians - are desperate to keep the euro together and prevent a Grexit at almost any cost.foxinsoxuk said:
The will of the Greek people is to stay in the Euro by a 3:1 ratio. When they find out that Tsiprias has been lying to them about voting No and keeping the Euro the mob will turn.hunchman said:
Totally agree with you SeanT. Voters have simply had enough of the endless lies and subjugation from Brussels. And as for a Grexit having no implications for the rest of the Eurozone, none of the Eurozone simply have a clue. This is the first of a domino effect that will tear the Euro apart, however much they'll do everything in their declining power base to try and hold everything together. History repeatedly shows that once you go against the will of the people, sooner or later they will get their way. And the longer they have to wait for that change, the more violent the change that eventually erupts.SeanT said:Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.
It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.
Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.
This implies a haircut for creditors, as per the IMF report, as there is no other way to keep Greece in the EZ. This implies a better deal for Tsipras and the Greeks.0 -
Plucky little Greece standing up to the bullying of jumped little eurocrats like Juncker and Schaltz...
Who would have thunk it?
0 -
It implies a better deal for the Greeks but only, I suspect, after Tsipras has gone.SeanT said:
Has he been lying to them? We have no idea. See the more recent mood music from Brussels (i.e. yesterday and today). Lots of Eurocrats - and continental politicians - are desperate to keep the euro together and prevent a Grexit at almost any cost.foxinsoxuk said:
The will of the Greek people is to stay in the Euro by a 3:1 ratio. When they find out that Tsiprias has been lying to them about voting No and keeping the Euro the mob will turn.hunchman said:
Totally agree with you SeanT. Voters have simply had enough of the endless lies and subjugation from Brussels. And as for a Grexit having no implications for the rest of the Eurozone, none of the Eurozone simply have a clue. This is the first of a domino effect that will tear the Euro apart, however much they'll do everything in their declining power base to try and hold everything together. History repeatedly shows that once you go against the will of the people, sooner or later they will get their way. And the longer they have to wait for that change, the more violent the change that eventually erupts.SeanT said:Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.
It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.
Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.
This implies a haircut for creditors, as per the IMF report, as there is no other way to keep Greece in the EZ. This implies a better deal for Tsipras and the Greeks.0 -
Not just Tsipras but the entirety of Syrizia, most of all are more radical than Tsipras. Which means weeks of chaos while fresh elections occur.david_herdson said:
It implies a better deal for the Greeks but only, I suspect, after Tsipras has gone.SeanT said:
Has he been lying to them? We have no idea. See the more recent mood music from Brussels (i.e. yesterday and today). Lots of Eurocrats - and continental politicians - are desperate to keep the euro together and prevent a Grexit at almost any cost.foxinsoxuk said:
The will of the Greek people is to stay in the Euro by a 3:1 ratio. When they find out that Tsiprias has been lying to them about voting No and keeping the Euro the mob will turn.hunchman said:
Totally agree with you SeanT. Voters have simply had enough of the endless lies and subjugation from Brussels. And as for a Grexit having no implications for the rest of the Eurozone, none of the Eurozone simply have a clue. This is the first of a domino effect that will tear the Euro apart, however much they'll do everything in their declining power base to try and hold everything together. History repeatedly shows that once you go against the will of the people, sooner or later they will get their way. And the longer they have to wait for that change, the more violent the change that eventually erupts.SeanT said:Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.
It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.
Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.
This implies a haircut for creditors, as per the IMF report, as there is no other way to keep Greece in the EZ. This implies a better deal for Tsipras and the Greeks.0 -
This implies a haircut for creditors, as per the IMF report, as there is no other way to keep Greece in the EZ. This implies a better deal for Tsipras and the Greeks.
Why would investors ever buy Greek, or for that matter any southern European debt, after a haircut?
0 -
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book0 -
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.david_herdson said:
I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.0 -
Foxinsox
What nonsence. Salmond didn't need anyones permission to use sterling as the hapless Darling admitted in second debate. His only mistake was not to explicitly say to leave the RUK with the Bank of England, sterling and £1.5 trillion worth of debt. It would have been much the best outcome for Scotland.0 -
NO down to 1.06 on Betfair yet no results out. Very odd.0
-
Retail debt?foxinsoxuk said:
I think that most Greek debt is owed externally in Euros. So will increase in nominal terms with a devaluation.Charles said:
What you do is write down the debt by more than the devaluation, and then re-enter the Euro at a much more competitive exchange rate. It's what Italy did with the ERM in 1992, for instance. Euro valuations for Greek assets don't matter so much unless you have Euro-denominated debt: I've no idea whether this is an issue in Greece (it was a real problem in CEE, for instance, where there was a culture of borrowing in Swissies to buy local currency assets in order to arbitrage the interest rate differentials).foxinsoxuk said:
I think the 75% of Greeks who want to stay in the Euro will be pretty unhappy with Syrizia pretty quickly.Charles said:
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
Going to the Drachma does not get rid of the debt, it just devalues every asset in Greece.
Certainly governmental debt is, but it's retail that matters. If it is owed to the Greek banks (which is what I would expect), then it will be redominated as well to maintain the asset-liability match profile0 -
Possibly - but I doubt it. If necessary, the EU can step in with a pre-emptive offer funded by printing money.david_herdson said:
Wouldn't that give the green light for every other government in a similar situation to follow suit?Charles said:
What you do is write down the debt by more than the devaluation, and then re-enter the Euro at a much more competitive exchange rate. It's what Italy did with the ERM in 1992, for instance. Euro valuations for Greek assets don't matter so much unless you have Euro-denominated debt: I've no idea whether this is an issue in Greece (it was a real problem in CEE, for instance, where there was a culture of borrowing in Swissies to buy local currency assets in order to arbitrage the interest rate differentials).foxinsoxuk said:
I think the 75% of Greeks who want to stay in the Euro will be pretty unhappy with Syrizia pretty quickly.Charles said:
Isn't the obvious outcome to reintroduce drachma, but similar to Bulgaria, with an intention to rejoin the Euro as soon as posible. Add in a crawling peg exchange rate at a favourable rate and lashings of taxpayer money and you have a solution that could work for everyone.foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that tenable. If No wins, the expected capital flight and run on the bank continues.Syrizia may fall, but how could a new government accept an offer that no longer existed, and no longer matched the situation? It would mean Grexit, or at least running two currencies even with a desire to re-enter. The debts and other problems would still exist .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, perhaps.
No vote wins.
No new deal for the euro. Greeks protest violently at the prospect of a return to the drachma, and the government falls.
New government snuggles up to the eurozone leaders, and gets rewarded with continued crackpot membership of the deranged currency union.
Probably the best outcome is Yes wins (interesting to see the pensioners are backing Yes, despite facing pension cuts. Still better than devaluation I suppose). Syrizia falls to be replaced by a more centrist regime, which is then rewarded for constructive engagement with further debt remission/rescheduling.
At the moment Syrizia is acting like a passive aggressive teenager and cannot be reasoned with.
Going to the Drachma does not get rid of the debt, it just devalues every asset in Greece.
I'm still of the opinion that Grexit = Greece leaving the EU. But that's still less likely than the Syriza government falling within at most two months off the back of public pressure if a No is confirmed. You can only keep the Athens Metro running for free for so long: someone has to pay the drivers and supply the electricity.0 -
There are results out - not on the official site, but on the Greek TV channels (watching ERT1 and Skai), which show individual polling station results. Some Yes (Nai) leads but the majority are No (Oxi) so it currently looks like it will be a clear No.0
-
When I was in Madrid and Barcelona recently for work, much of the mood music was definitely anti-EU (as it is currently set-up) and plenty of people said to me that the UK had got it right by staying out of the Euro. It's very hard to downplay the sense of despondency that is being felt in large parts of Southern Europe currently. People do not see hope and they feel completely abandoned. That is a complete killer. Unlike Greece, Spain was not a nut-job prior to the Euro.foxinsoxuk said:
Really? I have just got back from Asturias (lovely place!) and the locals said no such thing, indeed were pro Euro and EU.SeanT said:
I doubt we will see tanks crossing the Rhine - no doubt they'll put on a show of unity, for now. But dark cracks are opening up, deep inside the European Project. Dangerous fissures in the foundations. Like the Towers of 9/11, which looked secure, albeit singed - until they fell down completely.foxinsoxuk said:
I think the resulting chaos and confusion is more likely to make the EZ countries circle the wagons rather than start shooting each other.SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
Incidentally I've just spent the last month in France and Italy (Corsica and Friuli to be precise). One reason for my absence here.
It's the first time intelligent Europeans have ever said to me (with a rueful grimace) "You English were right about the euro, all along".
0 -
Lol. In the real world most real people could not give a proverbial.foxinsoxuk said:
Really? I have just got back from Asturias (lovely place!) and the locals said no such thing, indeed were pro Euro and EU.SeanT said:
I doubt we will see tanks crossing the Rhine - no doubt they'll put on a show of unity, for now. But dark cracks are opening up, deep inside the European Project. Dangerous fissures in the foundations. Like the Towers of 9/11, which looked secure, albeit singed - until they fell down completely.foxinsoxuk said:
I think the resulting chaos and confusion is more likely to make the EZ countries circle the wagons rather than start shooting each other.SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
Incidentally I've just spent the last month in France and Italy (Corsica and Friuli to be precise). One reason for my absence here.
It's the first time intelligent Europeans have ever said to me (with a rueful grimace) "You English were right about the euro, all along".0 -
And the locals in Castellar de la Frontera where I've just spent the most outrageously fantastic weekend expressed envy that the Greeks have the chance to escape the Euro and Spain doesn't.foxinsoxuk said:
Really? I have just got back from Asturias (lovely place!) and the locals said no such thing, indeed were pro Euro and EU.SeanT said:
I doubt we will see tanks crossing the Rhine - no doubt they'll put on a show of unity, for now. But dark cracks are opening up, deep inside the European Project. Dangerous fissures in the foundations. Like the Towers of 9/11, which looked secure, albeit singed - until they fell down completely.foxinsoxuk said:
I think the resulting chaos and confusion is more likely to make the EZ countries circle the wagons rather than start shooting each other.SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
Incidentally I've just spent the last month in France and Italy (Corsica and Friuli to be precise). One reason for my absence here.
It's the first time intelligent Europeans have ever said to me (with a rueful grimace) "You English were right about the euro, all along".
I've been conducting regular opinion polling in the village almost every weekend for a decade now (okay, in Bar El Cortijo and Mario who runs the grocery shop next to my house up there) and this is the most anti EU and Euro I have heard them. They are reacting strongly to another country getting the chance to break links with the EU.
Maybe all three of us are just hearing what we want to hear?0 -
How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?Moses_ said:
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book0 -
Yes, it would have been a total triumph and would have had no affect at all on Scotland's relationship with by far its biggest export market or any impact on the country's reputation as a credible borrower in the international financial markets.scotslass said:Foxinsox
What nonsence. Salmond didn't need anyones permission to use sterling as the hapless Darling admitted in second debate. His only mistake was not to explicitly say to leave the RUK with the Bank of England, sterling and £1.5 trillion worth of debt. It would have been much the best outcome for Scotland.
0 -
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.david_herdson said:
I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.0 -
John Hooper✔@john_hooper - (Italy & Vatican correspondent) writing for Guardian.
It's starting to feel like a remake of 300: Spartans v Persians but with Angela Merkel as Xerxes.
PB lurker?0 -
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
0 -
29/12/2014 Mark Senior wrote "FWIW, my own forecast for next May is Lib Dems 14-15% and 35-38 seats"Charles said:
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
Mark Senior also said it was "Only in TC's wet dreams" when taffys said: "Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???"
No dream, just reality....0 -
That makes David Cameron unelected too.Moses_ said:
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
EP positions are determined by the European Parliament results across the continent. The UK has a say in that. It used to have a much bigger one before the switch to PR as the scale of gains and losses under FPTP made the UK close to the swing state in the parliament.0 -
Greece was occupied for four years and economically devastated. By Germany.
So were a lot of other countries. Germany was rewarded for that with enormous debt relief.0 -
Different demographics voting in the referendum vs betting on the result?Barnesian said:NO down to 1.06 on Betfair yet no results out. Very odd.
A bit like all the London lefties that didn't possibly see a Con majority coming as they knew absolutely no-one who voted for them?0
