In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries fall. To date I haven’t really looked at the role of the Boundary Commissions at all. This is a serious omission.
Comments
I was glad to see Cameron reaffirming the change to 600 MPs on Wednesday, if only because it shakes things up a little!
Oh, and first.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/250797/7032_i.pdf
35% Tessa Jowell
18% Sadiq Khan
12% Diane Abbott
12% Christian Wolmar
9% David Lammy
1% Gareth Thomas
12% None/Don't know
http://labourlist.org/2015/07/labourlist-readers-give-jowell-clear-lead-in-latest-survey/
In a blog post last year Varoufakis advocated a Bitcoin style parallel currency in order to provide:
- A source of liquidity for the governments that is outside the bond markets, which does not involve the banks and which lies outside any of the restrictions imposed by Brussels or the various troikas
- A national supply of euros that is perfectly legal in the context of the European Union’s Treaties
- A free and fully transparent payment system outside the banking system
Could be an indication of what they're planning for next week?
But the Bitcoin market is nowhere near large enough or liquid enough to replace the Euro in Greece. Mores the pity.
I wonder what sort of animated porcine would Owen Jones design..
Snowball. Or perhaps Napoleon. But probably Snowball
http://www.sparknotes.com/lit/animalfarm/characters.html
A "sense of place" though is pretty damn hard to define, and I would venture to suggest that it is less important than in years gone by simply because most of us don't live where we grew up any more.
Happy to be contradicted, perhaps the case you touch on of the edges of cities might be one where this sense of place argument is true. Yet many people who used to be in ruralish areas are now firmly swallowed up by cities and are presumably in "city" constituencies like it or not.
And Cornwall being special is a given as we all know SeanT would confirm ;-)
Sorry, Norman, but the Peppa Pig comments are silly.
Incidentally, my four-year old grandson visited recently from Sydney and had a bit of a posh British accent - entirely down to watching Peppa Pig for the last three years.
As a two-year-old, he was sat in the car with his mother when a police car drove past. "The police," he called. "Let me do the talking." A comment from a Peppa Pig cartoon he'd just seen.
Fortunately, he starts school next January, so I'm expecting a Crocodile Dundee accent when next I see him.
News that millions of bank customers will get £10,000 less compensation in future if their bank goes bust has been criticised as "absurd" by a senior MP.
Under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), consumers can receive up to £85,000 per account.
But from 1 January 2016, the amount will be reduced to £75,000, as a result of the strength of the pound.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33384284
What's changed such that the pollsters are picking up these leads, but were incapable of doing so before the GE?
The final Markit composite eurozone Purchasing Manages' Index (PMI), which combines manufacturing and services activity, rose to 54.2, its highest reading since May 2011.
Any reading above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 points to contraction.
Markit said the data pointed to second-quarter economic growth of 0.4%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33377130
EICIPMI think it's John Redwood he is next to
http://youtu.be/hUHNFY1ksPw
I know last time the Boundary Commission had issues around Cheshire and the Wirral as there was a big rural-ish ward at the end of the Wirral. This led to the Mersey banks abomination. I believe this has now been split up so that is one area of the old review which will definitely change.
Sorry if I've misremembered.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/03/greek-debt-crisis-council-of-state-to-rule-on-referendum-live
SocGen are right to warn about Cyprus, which was already in a poor way and whose economy remains closely linked to Greece. They are also right IMO about the difficulty and timescales of getting out of the mess even with a Yes result.
Thanks a lot, v thoughtful of you
Thanks for this article, it has dragged me back to comment.
During the review of the redrawing of parliamentary boundaries that took place last year by the Political and Constitution Reform Committee of the HofC the English Boundary Commission stated that their intention was to be more open to ward splitting than in the past but that a strong case would be still be required albeit at a lower bar.
Ward boundaries can still be difficult though. We have just had a redistricting for Hertfordshire County Council so that the County Divisions now do not match the underlying borough wards. Which boundaries would the boundary commission prefer to use as a base?
More prosaically, I think I'm about to have to cut the lawn with a brand new garden tractor to which part of my winnings were diverted. The wine will have to lie in the cellar for a few years.
Watford30 The final Survation had a 6 point Labour lead http://uk.businessinsider.com/survation-unpublished-poll-general-election-result-2015-5
https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/chuka-umunna-i-stood-labour-leadership-too-soon
2:42PM
antifrank said:
Peppa Pig is so middle class. Just look at her family and friends.
williamglen said:
The definition of middle class is that none of your friends will back you up in a fight
I said:
I prefer my daughter's
A person is middle class if they can keep the same alcohol in the house for more than a week.
However the YES has a lead with over 65's by a 2-1 margin.
NO leads in every other age category.
Essentially the younger you are and the poorer you are the more likely you vote NO but of course the less likely you vote, it's the same way the Tories won the last election but with an important difference of Farmers being strongly on the NO side.
The NO has large leads among Farmers, Unemployed, Students, Public & Private sector workers.
The YES has large leads among Businessmen and Pensioners.
There is an extremely strong divide by class and income, it's like class warfare.
I've got news that both the NO and the YES camps have scheduled rallies in central Athens at the same time just half a mile away from each other !
Unfortunately I envision big trouble.
There are apparently about 500K Greeks who have left already. I fear this is not going to help the yes camp.
The 15% of voters in Greece who are long term unemployed plus another 15% living in extreme poverty give a very good base for extreme parties to overwhelm any moderate centrist parties.
It's social engineering but it lead to Germany in the early 30's instead of Britain in the 80's.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e
Another hurdle cleared – Monte Carlo or bust come Sunday?
I thought I had had a pretty tough day but poor Heather has some serious work to do. That woman is brutal.
Interesting footage just now showing a 12 year-old Heather Watson talking about the fact that her heroes were Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. Both of them are still playing just as well now as they were then.
The banks won't be opening on Monday.
In 10 years time most greeks would be too old to have kids and then it will literally enter a death spiral as not many will work but there wont be many people around to work anyway to pay the pensions of old people.
Bulgaria today would be a very good analogy of a future Greece but without the eurozone burden and the huge tax bill that comes with it, not that Bulgaria is beyond saving, they too have passed the point of no return long ago and will be extinguished probably 20 years quicker than Greece.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate
Jerome Roos
@JeromeRoos
HUGE LEAK: document that New Democracy sent to TV stations in #Greece, urging them to fake polls in favor of YES https://www.facebook.com/solidaritywithgreece/photos/a.1681903648696778.1073741828.1681857028701440/1683340338553109/?type=1 …
I've read that document too, it was leaked by some greek journalists a few hours ago.
The worse thing in a close race is not knowing if the polls you read actually exist or not.
*for the avoidance of doubt, a joke; I know your winnings were most definitely earned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Greece
From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.
The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.
This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html
And yes another greek poll shows YES ahead by 0.4%, interestingly it shows the age divide being a little less extreme than other polls.
http://www.isidewith.com/elections/2016-presidential/1068579353
The trouble being, the Saudis are our allies. We're friends with the baddies.
http://www.conservativehome.com/video/2015/07/watch-sajid-javid-reports-back-on-his-eu-condom-negotiations.html
https://twitter.com/LabourAndy/status/617030702341689344?lang=en-gb
I'll get my coat.....