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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing his series on the boundaries Antifrank on the role of he Boundary Commissions’

In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries fall.  To date I haven’t really looked at the role of the Boundary Commissions at all.  This is a serious omission.

Read the full story here

JosiasJessop

Thanks, Antifrank. Excellent as usual.

I was glad to see Cameron reaffirming the change to 600 MPs on Wednesday, if only because it shakes things up a little!

Oh, and first.

AndyJS

This is the report of the last completed boundary review for England upon which the current constituencies are based. It was published in 2007 and implemented at the 2010 general election:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/250797/7032_i.pdf

Danny565

Labourlist London poll:

35% Tessa Jowell
18% Sadiq Khan
12% Diane Abbott
12% Christian Wolmar
9% David Lammy
1% Gareth Thomas
12% None/Don't know

http://labourlist.org/2015/07/labourlist-readers-give-jowell-clear-lead-in-latest-survey/

williamglenn

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/02/15/bitcoin-a-flawed-currency-blueprint-with-a-potentially-useful-application-for-the-eurozone/

In a blog post last year Varoufakis advocated a Bitcoin style parallel currency in order to provide:

- A source of liquidity for the governments that is outside the bond markets, which does not involve the banks and which lies outside any of the restrictions imposed by Brussels or the various troikas
- A national supply of euros that is perfectly legal in the context of the European Union’s Treaties
- A free and fully transparent payment system outside the banking system

Could be an indication of what they're planning for next week?

kle4

Although not nearly as bad as splitting across counties or towns unless no other option, it can be annoying where a town is in one seat and its adjoining villages within the same community area are not, but I can see that cutting them off would make sticking to the population guidelines easier.

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/02/15/bitcoin-a-flawed-currency-blueprint-with-a-potentially-useful-application-for-the-eurozone/

In a blog post last year Varoufakis advocated a Bitcoin style parallel currency in order to provide:

- A source of liquidity for the governments that is outside the bond markets, which does not involve the banks and which lies outside any of the restrictions imposed by Brussels or the various troikas
- A national supply of euros that is perfectly legal in the context of the European Union’s Treaties
- A free and fully transparent payment system outside the banking system

Could be an indication of what they're planning for next week?

I have 100 bitcoin on my PC that I bought for $3 a piece... So, I'm a big fan of the concept.

But the Bitcoin market is nowhere near large enough or liquid enough to replace the Euro in Greece. Mores the pity.

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: Is there any reason to suppose that the Boundary Commission won't simply re-run its previous proposals, with minor changes where necessary?

Charles

@Plato FPT

I wonder what sort of animated porcine would Owen Jones design..

Snowball. Or perhaps Napoleon. But probably Snowball

http://www.sparknotes.com/lit/animalfarm/characters.html

Richard_Nabavi

I take my hat off to the con merchants who invented Bitcoins. Persuading people to pay real money for prime numbers is a brilliant scam of monumental proportions, and not even illegal. I just wish I'd thought of it.

AndyJS

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Is there any reason to suppose that the Boundary Commission won't simply re-run its previous proposals, with minor changes where necessary?

Apparently they were using software which produced some very odd proposals such as "Mersey Banks". I'd be surprised if they don't make some alterations. Previous boundary reviews were purely human efforts.

Danny565

AndyJS said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Is there any reason to suppose that the Boundary Commission won't simply re-run its previous proposals, with minor changes where necessary?

Apparently they were using software which produced some very odd proposals such as "Mersey Banks". I'd be surprised if they don't make some alterations. Previous boundary reviews were purely human efforts.

My seat was supposed to be shuffled into that "Mersey Banks" monstrosity.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Is there any reason to suppose that the Boundary Commission won't simply re-run its previous proposals, with minor changes where necessary?

I think that's pretty likely. They probably won't say that at the outset, but wherever they can I expect they will.

Plato

Charles said:

@Plato FPT

I wonder what sort of animated porcine would Owen Jones design..

Snowball. Or perhaps Napoleon. But probably Snowball

http://www.sparknotes.com/lit/animalfarm/characters.html

JonCisBack

Excellent once again antifrank

A "sense of place" though is pretty damn hard to define, and I would venture to suggest that it is less important than in years gone by simply because most of us don't live where we grew up any more.

Happy to be contradicted, perhaps the case you touch on of the edges of cities might be one where this sense of place argument is true. Yet many people who used to be in ruralish areas are now firmly swallowed up by cities and are presumably in "city" constituencies like it or not.

And Cornwall being special is a given as we all know SeanT would confirm ;-)

Scott_P

@KPeacock_ComRes: Cons lead Lab by 12 points in latest @ComResPolls poll http://t.co/LX7eHdwzP8

CD13

Sorry, Norman, but the Peppa Pig comments are silly.

Incidentally, my four-year old grandson visited recently from Sydney and had a bit of a posh British accent - entirely down to watching Peppa Pig for the last three years.

As a two-year-old, he was sat in the car with his mother when a police car drove past. "The police," he called. "Let me do the talking." A comment from a Peppa Pig cartoon he'd just seen.

Fortunately, he starts school next January, so I'm expecting a Crocodile Dundee accent when next I see him.

Financier

For all those high-rollers at PB

News that millions of bank customers will get £10,000 less compensation in future if their bank goes bust has been criticised as "absurd" by a senior MP.

Under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), consumers can receive up to £85,000 per account.

But from 1 January 2016, the amount will be reduced to £75,000, as a result of the strength of the pound.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33384284

watford30

Scott_P said:

@KPeacock_ComRes: Cons lead Lab by 12 points in latest @ComResPolls poll http://t.co/LX7eHdwzP8

Sleazy broken Tories on the slide.

What's changed such that the pollsters are picking up these leads, but were incapable of doing so before the GE?

Financier

Eurozone business activity rose at its fastest pace in four years in June, boosted by higher spending by consumers and businesses, a survey has indicated.

The final Markit composite eurozone Purchasing Manages' Index (PMI), which combines manufacturing and services activity, rose to 54.2, its highest reading since May 2011.

Any reading above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 points to contraction.

Markit said the data pointed to second-quarter economic growth of 0.4%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33377130

Scott_P

watford30 said:

Sleazy broken Tories on the slide.

EICIPM

Scott_P

@skystallard: Head of Greece's banking association says €1bn left,have liquidity until Monday morning,after that depends on ECB. #Greece

TheWhiteRabbit

Financier said:

For all those high-rollers at PB

News that millions of bank customers will get £10,000 less compensation in future if their bank goes bust has been criticised as "absurd" by a senior MP.

Under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), consumers can receive up to £85,000 per account.

But from 1 January 2016, the amount will be reduced to £75,000, as a result of the strength of the pound.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33384284

How many savers exceed even the lower limit? I would have thought few people have £75,000 with a single bank and have no other plans for it.

isam

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"

I think it's John Redwood he is next to

http://youtu.be/hUHNFY1ksPw

GarethoftheVale2

Antifrank, I don't think you can assume the new review will be similar to the old one. One thing to bear in mind is that many places will have had local boundary reviews in the interim. In some of the big conurbations the wards can have 15-20k voters so changing ward boundaries can make a big difference when you are creating a 75k constituency out of only 3-4 wards.

I know last time the Boundary Commission had issues around Cheshire and the Wirral as there was a big rural-ish ward at the end of the Wirral. This led to the Mersey banks abomination. I believe this has now been split up so that is one area of the old review which will definitely change.

Speedy

The greek referendum will go to the wire, 2 new polls show a dead heat with YES ahead by 0.6% and NO ahead by 0.5% and a third one on the way that shows a similar picture.

Financier

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Financier said:

For all those high-rollers at PB

News that millions of bank customers will get £10,000 less compensation in future if their bank goes bust has been criticised as "absurd" by a senior MP.

Under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), consumers can receive up to £85,000 per account.

But from 1 January 2016, the amount will be reduced to £75,000, as a result of the strength of the pound.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33384284

How many savers exceed even the lower limit? I would have thought few people have £75,000 with a single bank and have no other plans for it.

Only those PBers who made so much at the GE and their wives/daughters have not found out yet!!

JosiasJessop

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"
(snip)

isam: I don't know if you were lurking during your absence, but I posted that Peter Reich's book "A book of dreams" has been republished and is on Amazon. I might be wrong, but I think you were interested in getting a copy, in which case it is much cheaper.

Sorry if I've misremembered.

Richard_Nabavi

Financier said:

Only those PBers who made so much at the GE and their wives/daughters have not found out yet!!

Wives not finding out? Are you kidding?

AndyJS

Speedy said:

The greek referendum will go to the wire, 2 new polls show a dead heat with YES ahead by 0.6% and NO ahead by 0.5% and a third one on the way that shows a similar picture.

Half a million Greeks who've recently left the country won't be able to vote unless they return in the next day or so.

Richard_Nabavi

Some interesting comments on Greece by Oxford Economics and Société Générale (16.16)

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/03/greek-debt-crisis-council-of-state-to-rule-on-referendum-live

SocGen are right to warn about Cyprus, which was already in a poor way and whose economy remains closely linked to Greece. They are also right IMO about the difficulty and timescales of getting out of the mess even with a Yes result.

felix

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Financier said:

For all those high-rollers at PB

News that millions of bank customers will get £10,000 less compensation in future if their bank goes bust has been criticised as "absurd" by a senior MP.

Under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), consumers can receive up to £85,000 per account.

But from 1 January 2016, the amount will be reduced to £75,000, as a result of the strength of the pound.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33384284

How many savers exceed even the lower limit? I would have thought few people have £75,000 with a single bank and have no other plans for it.

A fair number of those who have had a modicum of luck, and a lifetime of thriftiness. Without thousands of savers no-one would have a mortgage. You don't need a silver spoon to acquire a modest competence if you aren't greedy.

isam

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"
(snip)

isam: I don't know if you were lurking during your absence, but I posted that Peter Reich's book "A book of dreams" has been republished and is on Amazon. I might be wrong, but I think you were interested in getting a copy, in which case it is much cheaper.

Sorry if I've misremembered.

You haven't misremembered it is a book i would love to read and I have ordered a copy

Thanks a lot, v thoughtful of you

JosiasJessop

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"
(snip)

isam: I don't know if you were lurking during your absence, but I posted that Peter Reich's book "A book of dreams" has been republished and is on Amazon. I might be wrong, but I think you were interested in getting a copy, in which case it is much cheaper.

Sorry if I've misremembered.

You haven't misremembered it is a book i would love to read and I have ordered a copy

Thanks a lot, v thoughtful of you

Ah, that's good. I just remembered to repost as I was just wrapping a gift copy for Mrs J.

Scott_P

DELETED

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

Financier said:

Only those PBers who made so much at the GE and their wives/daughters have not found out yet!!

Wives not finding out? Are you kidding?

On the plus side, yesterday for the first time I got to sit in the car that my general election winnings paid for.

Verulamius

Antifrank,

Thanks for this article, it has dragged me back to comment.

During the review of the redrawing of parliamentary boundaries that took place last year by the Political and Constitution Reform Committee of the HofC the English Boundary Commission stated that their intention was to be more open to ward splitting than in the past but that a strong case would be still be required albeit at a lower bar.

Ward boundaries can still be difficult though. We have just had a redistricting for Hertfordshire County Council so that the County Divisions now do not match the underlying borough wards. Which boundaries would the boundary commission prefer to use as a base?

Richard_Nabavi

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Financier said:

Only those PBers who made so much at the GE and their wives/daughters have not found out yet!!

Wives not finding out? Are you kidding?

On the plus side, yesterday for the first time I got to sit in the car that my general election winnings paid for.

Brilliant.

More prosaically, I think I'm about to have to cut the lawn with a brand new garden tractor to which part of my winnings were diverted. The wine will have to lie in the cellar for a few years.

HYUFD

Danny656 A good result for Jowell if she is leading with Labourlist

Watford30 The final Survation had a 6 point Labour lead http://uk.businessinsider.com/survation-unpublished-poll-general-election-result-2015-5

HYUFD

ISAM Maybe Hitchens should accept that the reason Major and Blair were in power for 17 years and Cameron then succeeded them having worked for the former and copied the latter is because that is where the centre of gravity is in UK

HYUFD

AndyJS 51% - 49% Yes is possible which would be interesting if Syriza calls and wins a subsequent election

HYUFD

Chuka Umunna 'I stood for leadership too soon'
https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/chuka-umunna-i-stood-labour-leadership-too-soon

DavidL

williamglenn • Posts: 696

2:42PM
antifrank said:


Peppa Pig is so middle class. Just look at her family and friends.

williamglen said:

The definition of middle class is that none of your friends will back you up in a fight

I said:

I prefer my daughter's

A person is middle class if they can keep the same alcohol in the house for more than a week.

Luckyguy1983

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"

I think it's John Redwood he is next to

http://youtu.be/hUHNFY1ksPw

I'm a huge Redwood fan. Utter disgrace how underused he's been.

Speedy

HYUFD said:

AndyJS 51% - 49% Yes is possible which would be interesting if Syriza calls and wins a subsequent election

It could be 51-49 for YES or NO.
However the YES has a lead with over 65's by a 2-1 margin.
NO leads in every other age category.
Essentially the younger you are and the poorer you are the more likely you vote NO but of course the less likely you vote, it's the same way the Tories won the last election but with an important difference of Farmers being strongly on the NO side.

The NO has large leads among Farmers, Unemployed, Students, Public & Private sector workers.
The YES has large leads among Businessmen and Pensioners.

There is an extremely strong divide by class and income, it's like class warfare.

Life_ina_market_town

Verulamius said:

Antifrank,

Thanks for this article, it has dragged me back to comment.

During the review of the redrawing of parliamentary boundaries that took place last year by the Political and Constitution Reform Committee of the HofC the English Boundary Commission stated that their intention was to be more open to ward splitting than in the past but that a strong case would be still be required albeit at a lower bar.

Ward boundaries can still be difficult though. We have just had a redistricting for Hertfordshire County Council so that the County Divisions now do not match the underlying borough wards. Which boundaries would the boundary commission prefer to use as a base?

The Boundary Commission must comply with the two mandatory requirements in rules 2 and 4 of Schedule 2 to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986. Those are that no constituency electorate's may deviate by more than 5% from the United Kingdom electoral quota, and that no constituency may exceed 13,000 square kilometres. Subject to those mandatory requirements, rule 5 allows the Commission to take into account, if and to the extent it sees fit:

(a) Special geographical considerations, including in particular the size, shape and accessibility of a constituency;
(b) Local government boundaries as they exist on the most recent ordinary council-election day before the review date;
(c) Boundaries of existing constituencies;
(d) Any local ties that would be broken by changes in constituencies;
(e) The inconveniences attendant on such changes; and
(f) Boundaries of electoral regions for the purposes of European Parliamentary elections.

The Commission can either ignore these factors, or having taken them into account, give them no weight in its recommendations, provided it does not act irrationally.

williamglenn

Richard_Nabavi said:

Some interesting comments on Greece by Oxford Economics and Société Générale (16.16)

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/03/greek-debt-crisis-council-of-state-to-rule-on-referendum-live

SocGen are right to warn about Cyprus, which was already in a poor way and whose economy remains closely linked to Greece. They are also right IMO about the difficulty and timescales of getting out of the mess even with a Yes result.

It makes the stability of Turkey even more critical as well. It risks being surrounded by failed states with an expansionist Russia to the north.

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"
(snip)

isam: I don't know if you were lurking during your absence, but I posted that Peter Reich's book "A book of dreams" has been republished and is on Amazon. I might be wrong, but I think you were interested in getting a copy, in which case it is much cheaper.

Sorry if I've misremembered.

You haven't misremembered it is a book i would love to read and I have ordered a copy

Thanks a lot, v thoughtful of you

Ah, that's good. I just remembered to repost as I was just wrapping a gift copy for Mrs J.

I just knew that something good was gonna happen.

felix

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS 51% - 49% Yes is possible which would be interesting if Syriza calls and wins a subsequent election

It could be 51-49 for YES or NO.
However the YES has a lead with over 65's by a 2-1 margin.
NO leads in every other age category.
Essentially the younger you are and the poorer you are the more likely you vote NO but of course the less likely you vote, it's the same way the Tories won the last election but with an important difference of Farmers being strongly on the NO side.

The NO has large leads among Farmers, Unemployed, Students, Public & Private sector workers.
The YES has large leads among Businessmen and Pensioners.

There is an extremely strong divide by class and income, it's like class warfare.

Fascinating - those with little to lose [or, in the case of farmers can feed themselves/] are happy to gamble other people's money. Twas ever thus.

Speedy

@HYUFD
I've got news that both the NO and the YES camps have scheduled rallies in central Athens at the same time just half a mile away from each other !
Unfortunately I envision big trouble.

DavidL

If you were a Greek in Athens with, say, a small restaurant for which you can no longer get supplies would you wait until Sunday or would you leave now taking what you can with you?

There are apparently about 500K Greeks who have left already. I fear this is not going to help the yes camp.

Speedy

felix said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS 51% - 49% Yes is possible which would be interesting if Syriza calls and wins a subsequent election

It could be 51-49 for YES or NO.
However the YES has a lead with over 65's by a 2-1 margin.
NO leads in every other age category.
Essentially the younger you are and the poorer you are the more likely you vote NO but of course the less likely you vote, it's the same way the Tories won the last election but with an important difference of Farmers being strongly on the NO side.

The NO has large leads among Farmers, Unemployed, Students, Public & Private sector workers.
The YES has large leads among Businessmen and Pensioners.

There is an extremely strong divide by class and income, it's like class warfare.

Fascinating - those with little to lose [or, in the case of farmers can feed themselves/] are happy to gamble other people's money. Twas ever thus.

Yeap, and what we see in Greece since it entered the euro is the reverse process of Thacherism, instead of increasing the number of the wealthy and the owners it decreased it, and increased the numbers of the poor by so much that the most extreme parties get most votes.
The 15% of voters in Greece who are long term unemployed plus another 15% living in extreme poverty give a very good base for extreme parties to overwhelm any moderate centrist parties.

It's social engineering but it lead to Germany in the early 30's instead of Britain in the 80's.

AndyJS

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

Chuka Umunna 'I stood for leadership too soon'
https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/chuka-umunna-i-stood-labour-leadership-too-soon

Too soon to have any chance of being PM.

DavidL

AndyJS said:

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

When are the lightening storms due to start? Surely her best chance.

SimonStClare

Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal against Sunday’s referendum, ruling that the poll can go ahead, Reuters reports, citing court officials.

Another hurdle cleared – Monte Carlo or bust come Sunday?

rottenborough

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

When are the lightening storms due to start? Surely her best chance.

Go Heather. Although I will not be putting tonight's beer money on this one.

GarethoftheVale2

Veralumium - they tend to use district boundaries. The wards are smaller at district level so it gives them more flexibility

Tissue_Price

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

When are the lightening storms due to start? Surely her best chance.

Are you referring to the chance Serena gets struck by lightning? Or merely a closed roof?

DavidL

Tissue_Price said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

When are the lightening storms due to start? Surely her best chance.

Are you referring to the chance Serena gets struck by lightning? Or merely a closed roof?

The former.

I thought I had had a pretty tough day but poor Heather has some serious work to do. That woman is brutal.

AndyJS

O/T:

Interesting footage just now showing a 12 year-old Heather Watson talking about the fact that her heroes were Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. Both of them are still playing just as well now as they were then.

watford30

SimonStClare said:

Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal against Sunday’s referendum, ruling that the poll can go ahead, Reuters reports, citing court officials.

Another hurdle cleared – Monte Carlo or bust come Sunday?

They've only got a €1 billion left - might as well stick it on Red, Black or a number at the Roullette table.

The banks won't be opening on Monday.

Speedy

SimonStClare said:

Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal against Sunday’s referendum, ruling that the poll can go ahead, Reuters reports, citing court officials.

Another hurdle cleared – Monte Carlo or bust come Sunday?

Imagine if you had bet on the referendum for either YES or NO and the referendum was cancelled.

Luckyguy1983

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS 51% - 49% Yes is possible which would be interesting if Syriza calls and wins a subsequent election

It could be 51-49 for YES or NO.
However the YES has a lead with over 65's by a 2-1 margin.
NO leads in every other age category.
Essentially the younger you are and the poorer you are the more likely you vote NO but of course the less likely you vote, it's the same way the Tories won the last election but with an important difference of Farmers being strongly on the NO side.

The NO has large leads among Farmers, Unemployed, Students, Public & Private sector workers.
The YES has large leads among Businessmen and Pensioners.

There is an extremely strong divide by class and income, it's like class warfare.

Except in Greece we know these people are engaged, because if they weren't, Syriza wouldn't have been elected.

HYUFD

Speedy Indeed, although I would expect turnout to be high. It looks to be close either way

HYUFD

rottenborough Not necessarily, Obama took his chance and won. If Burnham or Cooper win leadership and election in 2020 he has likely missed his chance, if they lose Kendall likely to be a more formidable rival for leader by then

Speedy

Luckyguy1983 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS 51% - 49% Yes is possible which would be interesting if Syriza calls and wins a subsequent election

It could be 51-49 for YES or NO.
However the YES has a lead with over 65's by a 2-1 margin.
NO leads in every other age category.
Essentially the younger you are and the poorer you are the more likely you vote NO but of course the less likely you vote, it's the same way the Tories won the last election but with an important difference of Farmers being strongly on the NO side.

The NO has large leads among Farmers, Unemployed, Students, Public & Private sector workers.
The YES has large leads among Businessmen and Pensioners.

There is an extremely strong divide by class and income, it's like class warfare.

Except in Greece we know these people are engaged, because if they weren't, Syriza wouldn't have been elected.

It's demographics and voter engagement, in Greece there are very few people under the age of 30, the birthrate in Greece collapsed 30 years ago and never recovered.
In 10 years time most greeks would be too old to have kids and then it will literally enter a death spiral as not many will work but there wont be many people around to work anyway to pay the pensions of old people.

Bulgaria today would be a very good analogy of a future Greece but without the eurozone burden and the huge tax bill that comes with it, not that Bulgaria is beyond saving, they too have passed the point of no return long ago and will be extinguished probably 20 years quicker than Greece.

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy Indeed, although I would expect turnout to be high. It looks to be close either way

I doubt it, turnout will be low, I will be surprised if it's greater than 60-65%, the good weather will discourage voters from going to the polls, most voters will probably go for a swim rather than vote.

Scott_P

@SkyNewsBreak: Reuters: witnesses report Greek police have fired flash bombs and are clashing with groups of protesters in central #Athens in #Greece

HYUFD

Speedy The CIA/UN figures give Greece a birthrate of 1.42-1.52, not great, but not so low the country dies out either
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate

MonikerDiCanio

Shocking to see how Robert Peston has aged since the loss of his wife.

HYUFD

Speedy It takes 5 minutes to vote, you can go to vote in the morning and then spend 8 hours on the beach/swimming, it is not either/or. Given this decision will affect the future livelihood of Greeks young and old for the next decade or more I would expect turnout to be high

Speedy

Greek poll warning, dirty tricks might be afoot:

Jerome Roos
‏@JeromeRoos
HUGE LEAK: document that New Democracy sent to TV stations in #Greece, urging them to fake polls in favor of YES https://www.facebook.com/solidaritywithgreece/photos/a.1681903648696778.1073741828.1681857028701440/1683340338553109/?type=1 …

I've read that document too, it was leaked by some greek journalists a few hours ago.
The worse thing in a close race is not knowing if the polls you read actually exist or not.

Theuniondivvie

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Financier said:

Only those PBers who made so much at the GE and their wives/daughters have not found out yet!!

Wives not finding out? Are you kidding?

On the plus side, yesterday for the first time I got to sit in the car that my general election winnings paid for.

At last, definitive proof that Scotland subsidises London.*

*for the avoidance of doubt, a joke; I know your winnings were most definitely earned.

Speedy

Another greek poll to be published in about 10-20 minutes rumoured to show YES ahead by 0.4% .

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy The CIA/UN figures give Greece a birthrate of 1.42-1.52, not great, but not so low the country dies out either
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate

It's actually 1.28.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Greece

Pulpstar

Speedy said:

SimonStClare said:

Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal against Sunday’s referendum, ruling that the poll can go ahead, Reuters reports, citing court officials.

Another hurdle cleared – Monte Carlo or bust come Sunday?

Imagine if you had bet on the referendum for either YES or NO and the referendum was cancelled.

I do (No) and it should be voided.

HYUFD

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

Financier

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

rcs1000

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Speedy

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Well given that the model is Bulgaria, then it takes 25 years for the population to fall 25%.
And yes another greek poll shows YES ahead by 0.4%, interestingly it shows the age divide being a little less extreme than other polls.

rcs1000

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Well given that the model is Bulgaria, then it takes 25 years for the population to fall 25%.

There are some nice beaches in Greece, so you'd expect a little more immigration than in Bulgaria. The food is better too.

Speedy

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Well given that the model is Bulgaria, then it takes 25 years for the population to fall 25%.

There are some nice beaches in Greece, so you'd expect a little more immigration than in Bulgaria. The food is better too.

True but Greece has collapsed economically and as long as it's in the euro it will continue to collapse, Bulgaria is not burdened by the euro, so more people would flee Greece rather than move to it.

rcs1000

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Well given that the model is Bulgaria, then it takes 25 years for the population to fall 25%.

There are some nice beaches in Greece, so you'd expect a little more immigration than in Bulgaria. The food is better too.

True but Greece has collapsed economically and as long as it's in the euro it will continue to collapse, Bulgaria is not burdened by the euro, so more people would flee Greece rather than move to it.

Economic collapse is an opportunity too! Beach side villas half price.

HYUFD

Speedy With a birthrate nearer 1.0 than 2.0 it is closer to halving than stabilising its population, however that does not mean the population is going to die out

AndyJS

Incredible from Heather Watson.

MonikerDiCanio

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Well given that the model is Bulgaria, then it takes 25 years for the population to fall 25%.

There are some nice beaches in Greece, so you'd expect a little more immigration than in Bulgaria. The food is better too.

True but Greece has collapsed economically and as long as it's in the euro it will continue to collapse, Bulgaria is not burdened by the euro, so more people would flee Greece rather than move to it.

Economic collapse is an opportunity too! Beach side villas half price.

With a sum similar to that used to bail out the unloved,incompetent and SNP-phile Scottish banks ( RBS and BoS ) the UK could save Greece from its current embarrassment and gain eternal thanks from the cradle of Western civilization. We need politicians who can think big and long term.

HYUFD

Which US presidential candidate do you side with? I got Hillary 75% then Rubio 73% then Jeb Bush 70%. 16 candidates given, 13 Republicans, 3 Democrats
http://www.isidewith.com/elections/2016-presidential/1068579353

HYUFD

Could we be on the verge of the greatest result in British womens tennis since Sue Barker won the French Open?

Luckyguy1983

Financier said:

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

I'm afraid this is an uncharacteristically misleading article from Charles Moore. Once again no mention of Wahhabism, the medievally inspired but relatively modern sect of sunni islam from which stoning, sharia, driving bans, islamist terrorism, and nearly every other abomination being discussed springs from. Why not give this phenomenon its name? Because to do so means confronting its origin, and its origin is Saudi Arabia, which has spent billions disseminating its loathsome ideology throughout the world's mosques, including British mosques. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wahhabism-a-deadly-scripture-398516.html

The trouble being, the Saudis are our allies. We're friends with the baddies.

Danny565

Serena looks like she's about to cry.

HYUFD

Sajid Javid reports back on his EU condom negotiations
http://www.conservativehome.com/video/2015/07/watch-sajid-javid-reports-back-on-his-eu-condom-negotiations.html

Danny565

Well, Watson's seemed to remember that she's British.

AndyJS

Not quite good enough from Watson at the moment.

AndyJS

Yay, serving for the match.

EPG

Luckyguy1983 said:

Financier said:

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

I'm afraid this is an uncharacteristically misleading article from Charles Moore. Once again no mention of Wahhabism, the medievally inspired but relatively modern sect of sunni islam from which stoning, sharia, driving bans, islamist terrorism, and nearly every other abomination being discussed springs from. Why not give this phenomenon its name? Because to do so means confronting its origin, and its origin is Saudi Arabia, which has spent billions disseminating its loathsome ideology throughout the world's mosques, including British mosques. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wahhabism-a-deadly-scripture-398516.html

The trouble being, the Saudis are our allies. We're friends with the baddies.

So your average Muslim is essentially being propagandised to by huge amounts of oil dollars proffered by The West.

HYUFD

Well played Heather Watson but not quite enough in the end

Luckyguy1983

EPG said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Financier said:

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

I'm afraid this is an uncharacteristically misleading article from Charles Moore. Once again no mention of Wahhabism, the medievally inspired but relatively modern sect of sunni islam from which stoning, sharia, driving bans, islamist terrorism, and nearly every other abomination being discussed springs from. Why not give this phenomenon its name? Because to do so means confronting its origin, and its origin is Saudi Arabia, which has spent billions disseminating its loathsome ideology throughout the world's mosques, including British mosques. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wahhabism-a-deadly-scripture-398516.html

The trouble being, the Saudis are our allies. We're friends with the baddies.

So your average Muslim is essentially being propagandised to by huge amounts of oil dollars proffered by The West.

If you want to put it that way, yes. The relationships between Islamism with Western authorities are far more dark and complex than that in my opinion, but that will certainly do as an aperitif.

HYUFD

Andy Burnham 'There is a case for more public ownership and control of our railways'
https://twitter.com/LabourAndy/status/617030702341689344?lang=en-gb

RobD

HYUFD said:

Andy Burnham 'There is a case for more public ownership and control of our railways'
https://twitter.com/LabourAndy/status/617030702341689344?lang=en-gb

Why does the background look like scrunched up paper? Is it because the whole idea is garbage?

I'll get my coat.....

HYUFD

RobD Don't ask me, don't agree with the policy but the polls show the public do and if Labour want to make the case for it there is a debate to be had. Even Peter Hitchens backs Burnham on this one