politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing his series on the boundaries Antifrank on the ro

Thanks, Antifrank. Excellent as usual.

I was glad to see Cameron reaffirming the change to 600 MPs on Wednesday, if only because it shakes things up a little!

Oh, and first.

Labourlist London poll:

35% Tessa Jowell
18% Sadiq Khan
12% Diane Abbott
12% Christian Wolmar
9% David Lammy
1% Gareth Thomas
12% None/Don't know

http://labourlist.org/2015/07/labourlist-readers-give-jowell-clear-lead-in-latest-survey/

Although not nearly as bad as splitting across counties or towns unless no other option, it can be annoying where a town is in one seat and its adjoining villages within the same community area are not, but I can see that cutting them off would make sticking to the population guidelines easier.

On topic: Is there any reason to suppose that the Boundary Commission won't simply re-run its previous proposals, with minor changes where necessary?

I take my hat off to the con merchants who invented Bitcoins. Persuading people to pay real money for prime numbers is a brilliant scam of monumental proportions, and not even illegal. I just wish I'd thought of it.

AndyJS said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Is there any reason to suppose that the Boundary Commission won't simply re-run its previous proposals, with minor changes where necessary?

Apparently they were using software which produced some very odd proposals such as "Mersey Banks". I'd be surprised if they don't make some alterations. Previous boundary reviews were purely human efforts.

My seat was supposed to be shuffled into that "Mersey Banks" monstrosity.

@KPeacock_ComRes: Cons lead Lab by 12 points in latest @ComResPolls poll http://t.co/LX7eHdwzP8

For all those high-rollers at PB

News that millions of bank customers will get £10,000 less compensation in future if their bank goes bust has been criticised as "absurd" by a senior MP.

Under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), consumers can receive up to £85,000 per account.

But from 1 January 2016, the amount will be reduced to £75,000, as a result of the strength of the pound.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33384284

Eurozone business activity rose at its fastest pace in four years in June, boosted by higher spending by consumers and businesses, a survey has indicated.

The final Markit composite eurozone Purchasing Manages' Index (PMI), which combines manufacturing and services activity, rose to 54.2, its highest reading since May 2011.

Any reading above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 points to contraction.

Markit said the data pointed to second-quarter economic growth of 0.4%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33377130

@skystallard: Head of Greece's banking association says €1bn left,have liquidity until Monday morning,after that depends on ECB. #Greece

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"

I think it's John Redwood he is next to

http://youtu.be/hUHNFY1ksPw

The greek referendum will go to the wire, 2 new polls show a dead heat with YES ahead by 0.6% and NO ahead by 0.5% and a third one on the way that shows a similar picture.

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"
(snip)

isam: I don't know if you were lurking during your absence, but I posted that Peter Reich's book "A book of dreams" has been republished and is on Amazon. I might be wrong, but I think you were interested in getting a copy, in which case it is much cheaper.

Sorry if I've misremembered.

Speedy said:

The greek referendum will go to the wire, 2 new polls show a dead heat with YES ahead by 0.6% and NO ahead by 0.5% and a third one on the way that shows a similar picture.

Half a million Greeks who've recently left the country won't be able to vote unless they return in the next day or so.

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"
(snip)

isam: I don't know if you were lurking during your absence, but I posted that Peter Reich's book "A book of dreams" has been republished and is on Amazon. I might be wrong, but I think you were interested in getting a copy, in which case it is much cheaper.

Sorry if I've misremembered.

You haven't misremembered it is a book i would love to read and I have ordered a copy

Thanks a lot, v thoughtful of you

Ah, that's good. I just remembered to repost as I was just wrapping a gift copy for Mrs J.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Financier said:

Only those PBers who made so much at the GE and their wives/daughters have not found out yet!!

Wives not finding out? Are you kidding?

On the plus side, yesterday for the first time I got to sit in the car that my general election winnings paid for.

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Financier said:

Only those PBers who made so much at the GE and their wives/daughters have not found out yet!!

Wives not finding out? Are you kidding?

On the plus side, yesterday for the first time I got to sit in the car that my general election winnings paid for.

Brilliant.

More prosaically, I think I'm about to have to cut the lawn with a brand new garden tractor to which part of my winnings were diverted. The wine will have to lie in the cellar for a few years.

ISAM Maybe Hitchens should accept that the reason Major and Blair were in power for 17 years and Cameron then succeeded them having worked for the former and copied the latter is because that is where the centre of gravity is in UK

Chuka Umunna 'I stood for leadership too soon'
https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/chuka-umunna-i-stood-labour-leadership-too-soon

isam said:

Peter Hitchens here explaining how New Labour ruined the country... In his speech he mentions John Redwood and says John Major was the first New Labour PM. When he returns to his seat the guy next to him says 'I always called it 'Blajor-ism' - Major & Blair"

I think it's John Redwood he is next to

http://youtu.be/hUHNFY1ksPw

I'm a huge Redwood fan. Utter disgrace how underused he's been.

Verulamius said:

Antifrank,

Thanks for this article, it has dragged me back to comment.

During the review of the redrawing of parliamentary boundaries that took place last year by the Political and Constitution Reform Committee of the HofC the English Boundary Commission stated that their intention was to be more open to ward splitting than in the past but that a strong case would be still be required albeit at a lower bar.

Ward boundaries can still be difficult though. We have just had a redistricting for Hertfordshire County Council so that the County Divisions now do not match the underlying borough wards. Which boundaries would the boundary commission prefer to use as a base?

The Boundary Commission must comply with the two mandatory requirements in rules 2 and 4 of Schedule 2 to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986. Those are that no constituency electorate's may deviate by more than 5% from the United Kingdom electoral quota, and that no constituency may exceed 13,000 square kilometres. Subject to those mandatory requirements, rule 5 allows the Commission to take into account, if and to the extent it sees fit:

(a) Special geographical considerations, including in particular the size, shape and accessibility of a constituency;
(b) Local government boundaries as they exist on the most recent ordinary council-election day before the review date;
(c) Boundaries of existing constituencies;
(d) Any local ties that would be broken by changes in constituencies;
(e) The inconveniences attendant on such changes; and
(f) Boundaries of electoral regions for the purposes of European Parliamentary elections.

The Commission can either ignore these factors, or having taken them into account, give them no weight in its recommendations, provided it does not act irrationally.

If you were a Greek in Athens with, say, a small restaurant for which you can no longer get supplies would you wait until Sunday or would you leave now taking what you can with you?

There are apparently about 500K Greeks who have left already. I fear this is not going to help the yes camp.

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

AndyJS said:

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

When are the lightening storms due to start? Surely her best chance.

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

When are the lightening storms due to start? Surely her best chance.

Go Heather. Although I will not be putting tonight's beer money on this one.

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

Good luck to Heather Watson vs Serena Williams. Betfair odds:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27479827&exp=e

When are the lightening storms due to start? Surely her best chance.

Are you referring to the chance Serena gets struck by lightning? Or merely a closed roof?

O/T:

Interesting footage just now showing a 12 year-old Heather Watson talking about the fact that her heroes were Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. Both of them are still playing just as well now as they were then.

SimonStClare said:

Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal against Sunday’s referendum, ruling that the poll can go ahead, Reuters reports, citing court officials.

Another hurdle cleared – Monte Carlo or bust come Sunday?

Imagine if you had bet on the referendum for either YES or NO and the referendum was cancelled.

Speedy Indeed, although I would expect turnout to be high. It looks to be close either way

Luckyguy1983 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS 51% - 49% Yes is possible which would be interesting if Syriza calls and wins a subsequent election

It could be 51-49 for YES or NO.
However the YES has a lead with over 65's by a 2-1 margin.
NO leads in every other age category.
Essentially the younger you are and the poorer you are the more likely you vote NO but of course the less likely you vote, it's the same way the Tories won the last election but with an important difference of Farmers being strongly on the NO side.

The NO has large leads among Farmers, Unemployed, Students, Public & Private sector workers.
The YES has large leads among Businessmen and Pensioners.

There is an extremely strong divide by class and income, it's like class warfare.

Except in Greece we know these people are engaged, because if they weren't, Syriza wouldn't have been elected.

It's demographics and voter engagement, in Greece there are very few people under the age of 30, the birthrate in Greece collapsed 30 years ago and never recovered.
In 10 years time most greeks would be too old to have kids and then it will literally enter a death spiral as not many will work but there wont be many people around to work anyway to pay the pensions of old people.

Bulgaria today would be a very good analogy of a future Greece but without the eurozone burden and the huge tax bill that comes with it, not that Bulgaria is beyond saving, they too have passed the point of no return long ago and will be extinguished probably 20 years quicker than Greece.

@SkyNewsBreak: Reuters: witnesses report Greek police have fired flash bombs and are clashing with groups of protesters in central #Athens in #Greece

Shocking to see how Robert Peston has aged since the loss of his wife.

Greek poll warning, dirty tricks might be afoot:

Jerome Roos
‏@JeromeRoos
HUGE LEAK: document that New Democracy sent to TV stations in #Greece, urging them to fake polls in favor of YES https://www.facebook.com/solidaritywithgreece/photos/a.1681903648696778.1073741828.1681857028701440/1683340338553109/?type=1 …

I've read that document too, it was leaked by some greek journalists a few hours ago.
The worse thing in a close race is not knowing if the polls you read actually exist or not.

Another greek poll to be published in about 10-20 minutes rumoured to show YES ahead by 0.4% .

Speedy said:

SimonStClare said:

Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal against Sunday’s referendum, ruling that the poll can go ahead, Reuters reports, citing court officials.

Another hurdle cleared – Monte Carlo or bust come Sunday?

Imagine if you had bet on the referendum for either YES or NO and the referendum was cancelled.

I do (No) and it should be voided.

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Well given that the model is Bulgaria, then it takes 25 years for the population to fall 25%.

There are some nice beaches in Greece, so you'd expect a little more immigration than in Bulgaria. The food is better too.

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Even so that signals population decline, not population extinction

How long does it need with a birth rate of 1.3 for the population to halve ?

Depends on how many of your population emigrate... And how many new arrivals there are...

Well given that the model is Bulgaria, then it takes 25 years for the population to fall 25%.

There are some nice beaches in Greece, so you'd expect a little more immigration than in Bulgaria. The food is better too.

True but Greece has collapsed economically and as long as it's in the euro it will continue to collapse, Bulgaria is not burdened by the euro, so more people would flee Greece rather than move to it.

Economic collapse is an opportunity too! Beach side villas half price.

Incredible from Heather Watson.

Which US presidential candidate do you side with? I got Hillary 75% then Rubio 73% then Jeb Bush 70%. 16 candidates given, 13 Republicans, 3 Democrats
http://www.isidewith.com/elections/2016-presidential/1068579353

Financier said:

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

I'm afraid this is an uncharacteristically misleading article from Charles Moore. Once again no mention of Wahhabism, the medievally inspired but relatively modern sect of sunni islam from which stoning, sharia, driving bans, islamist terrorism, and nearly every other abomination being discussed springs from. Why not give this phenomenon its name? Because to do so means confronting its origin, and its origin is Saudi Arabia, which has spent billions disseminating its loathsome ideology throughout the world's mosques, including British mosques. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wahhabism-a-deadly-scripture-398516.html

The trouble being, the Saudis are our allies. We're friends with the baddies.

Sajid Javid reports back on his EU condom negotiations
http://www.conservativehome.com/video/2015/07/watch-sajid-javid-reports-back-on-his-eu-condom-negotiations.html

Not quite good enough from Watson at the moment.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Financier said:

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

I'm afraid this is an uncharacteristically misleading article from Charles Moore. Once again no mention of Wahhabism, the medievally inspired but relatively modern sect of sunni islam from which stoning, sharia, driving bans, islamist terrorism, and nearly every other abomination being discussed springs from. Why not give this phenomenon its name? Because to do so means confronting its origin, and its origin is Saudi Arabia, which has spent billions disseminating its loathsome ideology throughout the world's mosques, including British mosques. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wahhabism-a-deadly-scripture-398516.html

The trouble being, the Saudis are our allies. We're friends with the baddies.

So your average Muslim is essentially being propagandised to by huge amounts of oil dollars proffered by The West.

EPG said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Financier said:

The only just form of rule is the restoration of the caliphate which the West destroyed. The role of devout Muslims, like the “leading rule of the party” in Leninism, is to be the vanguard.

From this, two things follow. The first is that Islamism, though not the same thing as Islam itself, will have a strong pull on discontented Muslims. It allows grievance to brandish the scimitar of righteousness. It is really a political doctrine about power, but its pseudo-holiness drags in believers. This means that the extremists are, to use another Blair phrase, part of “a spectrum not a fringe”.

The second is that the distinction between violent and non-violent extremism is merely operational. Islamists feel morally free to achieve their aims peacefully or violently, publicly or secretly, whichever suits. They follow a revolutionary doctrine, so there are no moderates. Islamism is declaredly determined to overthrow our way of life. Recent years prove its determination is matched by actions almost every day, almost everywhere. Like the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917, Islamists have moved fast from ranting to ruling, and they preach their creed globally. The phrase “existential threat” fits.

This is what Mr Cameron understands. In the Coalition, he was actively resisted by his own appointed minister, Sayeed Warsi, and by his partners, the Liberal Democrats.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11717180/Islamists-only-want-one-thing.-We-cannot-appease-them.html

I'm afraid this is an uncharacteristically misleading article from Charles Moore. Once again no mention of Wahhabism, the medievally inspired but relatively modern sect of sunni islam from which stoning, sharia, driving bans, islamist terrorism, and nearly every other abomination being discussed springs from. Why not give this phenomenon its name? Because to do so means confronting its origin, and its origin is Saudi Arabia, which has spent billions disseminating its loathsome ideology throughout the world's mosques, including British mosques. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wahhabism-a-deadly-scripture-398516.html

The trouble being, the Saudis are our allies. We're friends with the baddies.

So your average Muslim is essentially being propagandised to by huge amounts of oil dollars proffered by The West.

If you want to put it that way, yes. The relationships between Islamism with Western authorities are far more dark and complex than that in my opinion, but that will certainly do as an aperitif.

HYUFD said:

Andy Burnham 'There is a case for more public ownership and control of our railways'
https://twitter.com/LabourAndy/status/617030702341689344?lang=en-gb

Why does the background look like scrunched up paper? Is it because the whole idea is garbage?

I'll get my coat.....