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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dem choice: The highly regarded ex-minister or the formidable campaigner?
Just got back from a wonderfully restful holiday on the coast near the ancient sherry town of Jerez in South West Spain to find my LD leadership voting papers there waiting for my attention. The choice is very difficult.
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The leadership contenders are both very different in temperament and style and no doubt will have very different views on which route to take the LibDems. – For the first time since the 80s, the LDs have an opportunity to redefine themselves as a party; perhaps the questions being asked should really be, “what do the LDs represent today” and “which candidate best represents those values”
The choice is stark, is it someone to inspire them, grow the party and be a persuasive voice for liberalism, or is it just more of the same? - Statesman or thug!
I didn't know that Muslim marriages weren't required to be *registered* under the Marriage Act 1949 - this applies to other couples such Jews and Quakers though. Having a sub-culture build up like this makes me very uncomfortable. Estimates are c90% in Somali communities, 80% in under 30s segment.
The key for the Lib Dems for the next few years is to survive. There is at present every bit of as much of a chance of them having fewer MPs after the next election than more. For survival the critical point is to repair some of the damage incurred by the local councillor base that occurred under the Coalition.
I think that means they need a fresh start and a different voice focussed much, much more on local activism and local campaigning than someone better placed to fight their corner about the Coalition or the national scene where they are likely to remain an irrelevance for a long time. I think that means Tim Farron.
That support will not be available at Westminster, or able to prop him up nationally, so he will be out on his own.
I have observed Farron from close proximity for over 10 years, and have met him on many occasions. I think he would make a half decent parish councillor, but up to press I have yet to spot the Messiah.
There will be opportunities. We are, in my opinion, about to see the toughest budget this country has seen since the days of dear old Geoffrey Howe. It may be necessary but the triumphalism of the Tories since the election is way over done and I would expect their honeymoon to be short. A weaker Tory party potentially split over the EU referendum is an opportunity for the Lib Dems to revive. It always has been.
But they need to sound different and very much not like Tories. I am not sure Lamb can do that well. He is far too sensible.
Yawn.
If Labour choose a no-change or left-wing leader, then the LDs could pinch part of Labour's potential middle-ground, but LK would prove a greater challenge to them.
But the LDs do need more candidates including a lady (notwithstanding they do not have one as a MP at present) and this is a major weakness for an equality and diversity party.
When they picked up the PC the rest of the coffee spilt out onto his desk.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jul/02/paddy-power-lorry-campaign-says-immigrants-jump-in-the-back
If it comes up on C4 again, well worth a looksee. The attitude to marketing hasn't changed at all - I think it's great fun and anti-PC.
Excellent result for the Party in Hampton Wick yesterday - after long periods of bad news a win like this is psychologically important rather than having any deep national significance. Whether Andy's mean-spirited jibe from last night is the reason or not, it remains a good result.
Mike's article mirrors my thinking from three weeks ago. I don't know if OGH has been able to attend any of the Hustings events (I assume not) but the London event convinced me which candidate to support.
We're two months into a sixty-month Parliament - no one is listening or interested in the LDs now and I'm grateful to the usual suspects coming on here to remind us how irrelevant we are. That won't always be the case especially as the Conservatives get to their mid-term and their popularity fades and people become a bit irritated with them.
I said in my previous this leadership election reminds me of Ashdown vs Beith in 1989. Tim is not Paddy but he knows as I do it will need a combination of Paddy's energy and luck to get us back into the game. Tim will say things that will give many on here apoplexy but will get the Party noticed and talked about again.
We've had the "diversity deficit" issue hanging over us for many years and I think there are reasons in the nature of how the party has to fight and win seats why it is as it is. There are no easy answers and at least in Parliamentary terms, given the paucity of possible winning seats on offer, I fear the situation won't change quickly.
Previously that would have been a secondary school with good basic subjects, plus a tech college for the hairdressing and dance - now it is the worst of all choices for its pupils.
For me it's turned out to be easy; Norman is a class act and if we were in Government may well be the better choice, but with hard yards of opposition ahead, we need Tim's campaigning skills and ability to get noticed front and centre. I've also been worried about how Norman has campaigned against Tim's faith, and worry as a Christian myself I wouldn't be welcome in a Lamb-led party. For me the gap has widened during the campaign.
AFAIC, they simply go from strength to strength.
In the last thread Harry Hayfield said:
"And looking at the result in 2014, I rather fear that’s the only way the Liberal Democrats will be able win this ward which poses the question if the Conservatives were to lose, who might gain? Well, we know from past experience that UKIP do have a London problem and Labour aren’t strong in the south west of the capital so how about the Greens? Well, 19% at the last elections from just a single candidate does suggest that Richmond may be turning over a Green leaf and then there’s the Independent who didn’t contest in 2014, but all in all I think that the former Conservative councillor (now a Conservative MP) will be very confident in congratulating his new Conservative successor in a few hours time."
Result LibDem win with 43% of the vote.
I realise you're still in "honeymoon" mode but the world doesn't stand still and the Heathrow Airport runway story shows what can happen.
Saw a little of Question Time last night (more than expected, partly because my TV went partially on strike and refused to change the channel. I think it's a secret Jeremy Corbyn supporter). Shappi Khorsandi[sp] was bonkers, suggesting bombing ISIS was mad (What next? Wolverhampton?) and Corbyn's reference to austerity regarding the Tunisian attack betrays a mind that seems be like a drunk Miliband.
Of what I saw, Hunt was more impressive than I expected.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/03/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P40EO20150703
Tim also did two very good things at the Hustings - first, he paid a generous and fulsome tribute to Nick Clegg's leadership and that went down very well for (despite what you might think looking at LDV) Nick is still highly regarded in the Party not least for his resignation speech which won high praise even from his detractors.
Second, the legacy of Charles Kennedy is not to be under-estimated and in particular the sense that the Party has to start being "radical" and saying the awkward things and not being too bothered about what those ill-disposed toward the Party might think. Tim seemed to tap into that and articulate that and given the circumstances it resonated more than might have been the case otherwise.
Leaving aside the impending economic collapse of the eurozone and turning to more important matters (F1), they're reducing electronic aids, which it's thought will have an impact especially for the starts:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/33372075
Lucky as we are to have both of them, Tim has the charisma and can inspire - and will pull people towards us. Norman is more cerebral but can't grab attention in the way we are going to need with just 8 MPs.
But, thank goodness, both of them are proper Liberals with 99% shared values. They know what they stand for.
Poor old Labour party: Burnham, Kendall, Cooper and Corbyn - it's not who is the best of them, it's who is the least worst!
1. The EU will verbally offer some kind of debt restructuring. It will probably only be pushing out of maturities ("no money to be paid back before 2055" or some such)
2. The ECB will make it very explicit that it won't be extending the ELA in the event of a "No" vote.
3. There will be further splits in SYRIZA, as some on the centre right of the party say "this is enough".
I previously thought that we would see a narrow "No" vote. I'm thinking now that it will likely be a narrow "Yes".
Corbyn's bonkers. But then, the rest don't appear much better.
Not exactly a target voter for the Lib Dems, but I'd go for Lamb over Farron.
Mr. 1000, interesting stuff, although technically that's not about a Grexit
I do wonder which side will win. And when we'll find out.
And on the subject of Labour, Harriet is doing a lot better than Ed at PMQs. Almost enough for me to forgive her the pink bus.
Edited extra bit: MrsB, seems a more sensible timetable than Labour's prolonged slog. And your candidates appear less bonkers (well, Lamb, at least) than those likely to get the gig for the reds.
It is precisely because Lamb feels safe that he would be the wrong choice in these circumstances IMHO. I respect Norman immensely, but we need something different. Tim is the best choice to lead us at this point. More of the same will just finish us off. But maybe that is what some of you have in mind.........
Just realised, the Labour leadership and deputy leader contenders together make a bigger party than the LDs.
Think you should save "the poor olds" for yourself. With 8 MPs do the LDs really need a leader?
The big danger is that if they do worse than the Greens at Holyrood next year, they could get bumped down to minor party status in Scotland when the next Ofcom review takes place. This would then have a knock on effect for coverage and participation in the debates for 2020
It may be a mistake, though. The Conservatives still have substantial challenges (the referendum, primarily, and a probable leadership change). Labour seem intent on electing a continuity Miliband candidate. Opportunities should arise for the Lib Dems in Scotland, London and maybe regaining tactical Labour voters in the south-west, but Farron may put off as many as he attracts, whereas Lamb seems, to me, to be more solid.
Hard for me to judge, though, as I'm not the sort of pro-EU, soft left voter that the Lib Dems need to persuade.
In the end I voted for Lamb, with a hope of 20-30 MPs in the next election, but a credible base to build from. However, I think it'll be Farron. Much more literature has been sent out with his name on it, much more name recognition.
RANsquawk @RANsquawk - #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST):
0500 - Polls open
1700BST - Polls close
Shortly after 1700BST - 1st exit poll
(1/2)
RANsquawk @RANsquawk - #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST):
1900 ~ 20% of votes counted
2100 ~50% counted
2200 ~70% counted
0000 ~90% counted
There are those on here who want to see the remnants of the Party annihilated and then will dance on what's left but that's politics.
However, I've seen nothing that indicates that the Greeks will improve their situation whatever the referendum result. Their choices seem to be:
1. Jump off a cliff (vote OXI).
2. Slow death by economic strangulation (vote NAI).
3. Death by fudge (IMF/EZ limited interventions trying to preserve the Euro's credibility).
Poor Greeks.
Also depends how the SNP are doing.
The LD will never even register in a Richmond Park by-election with Zac Goldsmith running as an independent against Heathrow.
But as is, Farron probably works best right now.
Both are superior to Labour's current choices.
Suck it up bro..
http://www.wscountytimes.co.uk/news/local/full-list-of-horsham-district-council-election-winners-1-6735190
Which is why the Party should elect him.
More polls coming by tonight.
However, I really do struggle to see how they differentiate themselves cleanly and clearly from the other parties.
Both your leadership candidates are better than Labour's...which is damning with faint praise, as I'm sure you'll agree.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-33360817
Edited extra bit: good stuff, Mr. Speedy, well within the margin of error.
I wonder if there'll be differential turnout, and if we'll see a phenomenon from Scotland repeated (couples agreeing one will vote No, the other Yes).
That would be quite a blow for the Tories, losing their best bet for Mayor of London and a by-election.
I'd agree that if Zac stood again he'd win against anybody.
In which case you get a Conservative tainted by the Heathrow decision against a LibDem who says "Vote for Me to Say No to Heathrow!"
You also have to remember that with the reduction of seats to 600, you'd probably expect the LDs to lose to two to boundary changes. So that means they start from 6.
That being said, if it is Heathrow that has the third runway, then Twickenham is a possible gain.
Isn't there a timing problem though?
Cameron has said that there would be a decision on Heathrow by the end of the year and the Mayoral election isn't until May 2016. So in November, say, Cameron says Heathrow is to go ahead and Zac resigns. The by-election would be disconnected from the Mayoral election.
If Zac stands as an independent he'd be out of the Tory party.
Has Norman really done that? Are there any examples?
I heard Lamb being questioned recently on the Dignity in Dying issue. Lamb, an atheist, is in favour of the proposed legislation and Farron, a devout Christian, is against.
The question was "Can Farron be against dignity in dying and still be a liberal?". Lamb said yes, and defended Farron even though he disagreed with him on this issue. He said they were both commited liberals.
His mentioning of austerity when referring to the Tunisian attack was very weird.
Early forecast is for dry qualifying a wet race, but I haven't checked to see if it's been updated today.
If there is a decision in favour of Heathrow in say November then I think Zac will resign as an MP as he has promised. He then has a choice. He can stand as an independent against Heathrow or he can stand for the Tories as Mayor. He can't do both.
I suspect he would put all his energies into running for Mayor. He would stand as a Tory against Heathrow with support from Boris, the next leader of the Conservative Party.
There would then be a by-election in Richmond Park minus Zac. I think the Tories would still win it for demographic reasons but with a much reduced majority because of Heathrow and the absence of the personal vote for Zac. And also because every LibDem activist in the country will be there. Tory majority down from 23,000 to 4,000.
Zac would then go on to become Mayor the following May.
Seriously, all parties are weak in different parts of the country and all parties have ups and downs.
Is there still a need to our current parties?
Tories, yes.
LibDems, yes.
Labout, probably.
Greens, Yes.
SNP, Yes.
UKIP, probably not. But there will be a replacement on the right.
UKIP not so well.
Is anyone at all voting Labour at the moment ?
2015 with Ed Miliband may look like halycon days...
#EveryJourneyHasAFirstStep
1. There is clearly intellectual space for more than two (or three or four) parties. Sure, it's much harder to make an impact in a FPTP world, but I'd look at the Netherlands, where five parties all have 13-20% in the polls.
2. The LibDems really need UKIP to continue to perform. If UKIP is on 10-15%, then the "hurdle" for getting a seat is much, much lower. If the Conservative Party "heads right" to deal with UKIP this works in the LibDems favour.
3. The LibDems need Labour to elect someone unelectable. Corbyn would obviously be best, and Kendall worst.
4. A lot of will depend on the party rebuilding its councillor base in the next five years. This is going to be particularly important in areas where they have lost the local MP. Most important to watch will be the SE and SW market towns (Bath, etc.).
5. I'd reckon South West London - assuming Heathrow goes ahead - will be the best opportunity for the LDs to actually win seats in 2020. We'll see if they make substantial gains in the 2018 locals.
Stepping back a bit, though, the two most important things for the LibDems are (a) to get their political strategy and positioning right, and (b) to revive party morale and sense of purpose. To a large extent (b) follows from (a) - they certainly won't get their mojo back without a clear political strategy - but it also requires a leader who can inspire and unify through the power of personality. Of the two, Tim Farron looks the better placed in terms of personal appeal to the target audience, but is that enough? Does he have the guile and intellectual heft to turn the party into something bigger than a pseudo-liberal pressure group jumping on random band-wagons? I guess we'll find out over the next two or three years, but I rather fear that, whoever becomes leader, the party will at best have a long, hard haul out of irrelevance, and may well go even further backwards.
But almost all my LibDem activist friends (including my wife) are voting for Lamb. I am finding it difficult to find Farron supporters where I live.
I'm surprised at the Betfair odds. Farron 1.09; Lamb 10.5
I don't think there have been any polls of LibDem members. Lamb has the support of Paddy Ashdown and Shirley Williams. Yet it seems to be universally assumed that Farron will get it. What is the basis for this belief? Is it self-reinforcing based on the betting? The betting odds are heavily in favour of Farron so the odds must be heavily in favour of Farron?
Hunt has potential, lacks gravitas but he would get that if he were leader. Could see him being a compromise candidate.
I expect the polls to respond accordingly.
Any ideas?