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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming

SystemSystem Posts: 12,561
edited July 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

Peter Kellner looks at how the Alternative Vote system Labour use to elect their leader might stop Andy Burnham winning, it should be remembered, that this voting system helped Ed Miliband defeat his brother five years ago.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Many thanks TSE, I've always wondered about AV
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Survey of Labour councillors

    First preference for leader
    Burnham 36%
    Cooper 30%
    Corbyn 19%
    Kendall 15%

    LAST preference for leader
    Kendall 48%
    Corbyn 44%
    Cooper 6%
    Burnham 3%

    http://ww2.anglia.ac.uk/ruskin/en/home/news/conservatives-fear-kendall-flint-quake.Maincontent.0006.file.tmp/labour-polling-data-report-1-july-2015.pdf
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2015
    @rcs1000 FPT

    Yes, GGL and Concorde (although GGL is what makes the difference)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    After an initial positive splash I'm not really feeling any momentum behind Kendall, so Burnham or Cooper it is I guess, despite the arguments put forth I just have trouble seeing how Corbyn will avoid being bottom in the first round. I know anti-austerity is a welcome pitch to many, but is 'I hate austerity, iraq was bad, neocapitalists, Iraq was bad' enough to push him further in the race? There are surely enough Blairites left to ensure Kendall can beat him at least?

    Cooper seems more competent in manner to me than Burnham, even if she is blander.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    IIRC the No side claimed AV would be confusing to people, the poor darlings. I'll need some more links.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,645
    Charles said:

    @rcs1000 FPT

    Yes, GGL and Concorde (although GGL is what makes the difference)

    I would have made GGL this year, having racked up more than 3,000 TP in each of the last two years, but BA just changed the rules.

    So: I'm considering completely dumping BA...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    My current 2p based on Labour members wot I know.

    Corbyn might do better than expected. Kendall might do v. poorly.
    People generally assume that Burnham will win, but Cooper may sneak it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Survey of Labour councillors

    First preference for leader
    Burnham 36%
    Cooper 30%
    Corbyn 19%
    Kendall 15%

    LAST preference for leader
    Kendall 48%
    Corbyn 44%
    Cooper 6%
    Burnham 3%

    http://ww2.anglia.ac.uk/ruskin/en/home/news/conservatives-fear-kendall-flint-quake.Maincontent.0006.file.tmp/labour-polling-data-report-1-july-2015.pdf

    In order for Burnham to win he needs to be first with Corbyn beating Kendall for 3rd place.
    Or in more detail, Burnham+Corbyn must be greater than Cooper+Kendall.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,131
    FPT @rcs1000
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yanis Varoufakis: "Why we recommend a NO in the referendum – in 6 short bullet points".

    http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/01/why-we-recommend-a-no-in-the-referendum-in-6-short-bullet-points/

    There's a lot I agree with in those. However, 5 is simply not true. While Greece cannot be evicted from the Eurozone by diktat, if its entire banking system disintegrates, and there is no way to pay for essential imports of oil or food, then it will have no choice but to print its own money. At which point is effectively leaves the Eurozone by its own hand.

    The actions of Greek government, in insisting that a Euro exit is not on the cards, is incredibly irresponsible. Come Monday morning, assuming a No vote, Greece will need to move very quickly to rebuild its economy. It needs to have notes and coins available, it needs to pass legislation, and it needs to get bank systems on to the new currency.

    This week should be preparation for this. Instead, this foolish insistence in the inevitability of staying in the Euro means Greece is woefully unprepared for next week. God help the Greeks.
    It is held to be the gospel truth by all Eurosceptics of my acquaintance (and most of everybody else), that Greece is imprisoned in the Euro involuntarily by the evil EU. As I have repeatedly[1] stated, Greece is in the Euro voluntarily and it will not leave without being coerced. I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.

    You are concerned that the Greeks will suffer. But Greece is a professional mendicant, and has been for many years now. It earns its living thru getting money from rich outsiders by inspiring pity and charity. The danger is not that Greece will be poor and bankrupt: it already is poor and bankrupt. The danger is that Greece will bankrupt Germany...


    [1] Almost as often as Sunil has made that 300 joke...:-)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jonathan said:

    My current 2p based on Labour members wot I know.

    Corbyn might do better than expected. Kendall might do v. poorly.
    People generally assume that Burnham will win, but Cooper may sneak it.

    Yes, I agree with that. Feeling in my local party is Andy and Yvette are the only real choices, with the general feeling being that Andy has the bigger positives but also the bigger negatives.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Jonathan said:

    My current 2p based on Labour members wot I know.

    Corbyn might do better than expected. Kendall might do v. poorly.
    People generally assume that Burnham will win, but Cooper may sneak it.

    That is a very damning comment on the current state of the Labour Party. It seems like they have been put in a very poor place by the poor polling. If they had seen defeat coming from a long way off, there could have been a long period of reflection on their failings and how to address them. But because it came out the blue, many on the left repeated narratives about the evil Tories for so long, they won't be able to readjust their mindsets in time for the leadership election. Instead a "one more heave" premise seems to have taken hold, with the party intent on appointing another minor and unimpressive Brownite.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000 FPT

    Yes, GGL and Concorde (although GGL is what makes the difference)

    I would have made GGL this year, having racked up more than 3,000 TP in each of the last two years, but BA just changed the rules.

    So: I'm considering completely dumping BA...
    That's odd - when they changed the rules they sent me an email saying that if I made 3000 in the year just gone I'd still qualify because I'd make 3000 in the prior year. Now I just need 3000 per year to renew.

    GGL is worth having though - especially if you mosy around the US on American because that's the cheapest way to rack up points fast.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    On the greek referendum I give the following advice, looking at the vast number of opinion polls in past greek elections only the polls published on the last day are accurate, so the result should be known roughly by Friday night.

    Also check the weather for Sunday in Greece, if it's sunny then YES will be a few points higher, so far the weather report predicts some afternoon thunderstorms.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Jonathan said:

    My current 2p based on Labour members wot I know.

    Corbyn might do better than expected. Kendall might do v. poorly.
    People generally assume that Burnham will win, but Cooper may sneak it.

    I always said from the beginning that's a two horse race between Burnham and Cooper.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    Cooper = HIPS. Enough said.

    I picked the wrong day to be in London. Hot doesn't do it justice. This evening I am in my old manor of Ealing. Mostly familiar after 5 years away, but some changes including new blocks of apartments springing up. The people who bought our flat have still got the same curtains we left behind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    edited July 2015
    I personally think Burnham will pick up both Corbyn and Kendall's preferences but until we get polling data we cannot be sure. Burnham is likely to lead on first preferences with Cooper second and Corbyn and Kendall battling it out for 3rd. It is not impossible Cooper could sneak it, but unlikely. Remember too Ed M was helped by winning the union members vote on the first round too, that is not present this time.

    In 2010 Ed Miliband won Abbott and Balls voters preferences, Burnham voters preferences narrowly went to David
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    JEO said:

    Jonathan said:

    My current 2p based on Labour members wot I know.

    Corbyn might do better than expected. Kendall might do v. poorly.
    People generally assume that Burnham will win, but Cooper may sneak it.

    That is a very damning comment on the current state of the Labour Party. It seems like they have been put in a very poor place by the poor polling. If they had seen defeat coming from a long way off, there could have been a long period of reflection on their failings and how to address them. But because it came out the blue, many on the left repeated narratives about the evil Tories for so long, they won't be able to readjust their mindsets in time for the leadership election. Instead a "one more heave" premise seems to have taken hold, with the party intent on appointing another minor and unimpressive Brownite.
    It's also based on the evidence from most people who canvassed that, while people had many complaints about Labour, complaints that were "too left-wing" or were "anti-business" were usually not among them. Hence people don't think Kendall has the answers for the real problems the party faces.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    JEO Ken Clarke was the most centrist candidate in the 2005 Tory leadership race, he came last and the Tories still were largest party in 2010
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    Kendall needs to shine to persuade people like me (well, me) that she has the leadership qualities that will persuade us (well, me) to vote for style over substance. Initially I thought she would have 'it', but I have not seen anything like enough star quality to give her my vote.

    Liz, I can still be persuaded - dazzle in Newcastle and you might win me over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    edited July 2015
    Danny565 said:

    JEO said:

    Jonathan said:

    My current 2p based on Labour members wot I know.

    Corbyn might do better than expected. Kendall might do v. poorly.
    People generally assume that Burnham will win, but Cooper may sneak it.

    That is a very damning comment on the current state of the Labour Party. It seems like they have been put in a very poor place by the poor polling. If they had seen defeat coming from a long way off, there could have been a long period of reflection on their failings and how to address them. But because it came out the blue, many on the left repeated narratives about the evil Tories for so long, they won't be able to readjust their mindsets in time for the leadership election. Instead a "one more heave" premise seems to have taken hold, with the party intent on appointing another minor and unimpressive Brownite.
    It's also based on the evidence from most people who canvassed that, while people had many complaints about Labour, complaints that were "too left-wing" or were "anti-business" were usually not among them. Hence people don't think Kendall has the answers for the real problems the party faces.
    I can see that. If the primary concerns expressed were 'Ed M was crap' and 'I don't trust Labour with the economy', both things I underestimated, being more pro business might be a party of a change, but a different leader who seems competent could, conceivably, fix the issue without changing a thing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    Danny565 said:

    JEO said:

    Jonathan said:

    My current 2p based on Labour members wot I know.

    Corbyn might do better than expected. Kendall might do v. poorly.
    People generally assume that Burnham will win, but Cooper may sneak it.

    That is a very damning comment on the current state of the Labour Party. It seems like they have been put in a very poor place by the poor polling. If they had seen defeat coming from a long way off, there could have been a long period of reflection on their failings and how to address them. But because it came out the blue, many on the left repeated narratives about the evil Tories for so long, they won't be able to readjust their mindsets in time for the leadership election. Instead a "one more heave" premise seems to have taken hold, with the party intent on appointing another minor and unimpressive Brownite.
    It's also based on the evidence from most people who canvassed that, while people had many complaints about Labour, complaints that were "too left-wing" or were "anti-business" were usually not among them. Hence people don't think Kendall has the answers for the real problems the party faces.
    The question we need to ask ourselves is what do we need to do to win back seats like Stockton South in 2020. Posh Smoggies in Ingleby Barwick don't think Labour offers them anything - we need the policies and presentation to change their minds.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "A female prison officer has died after allegedly being assaulted while transferring a prisoner at Blackfriars Crown Court, Sky sources say.

    The woman, aged in her 50s, was attacked as she escorted the prisoner between the court and a waiting van."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1511731/prison-officer-dies-after-court-assault
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited July 2015
    @viewcode

    ' I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.'

    Yes, it's a win win for Syriza, vote Yes and they get the original deal with some better terms , vote No and they get a much better deal.

    They are running rings around the euro zone,I don't think anyone thought they would be so weak.

    Even the credit rating agencies are pretending Greece hasn't defaulted.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SandyRentool said:

    Kendall needs to shine to persuade people like me (well, me) that she has the leadership qualities that will persuade us (well, me) to vote for style over substance. Initially I thought she would have 'it', but I have not seen anything like enough star quality to give her my vote.

    Liz, I can still be persuaded - dazzle in Newcastle and you might win me over.

    Liz should be able to get my vote, but she has not come close to winning it yet. Her campaign for leader as so far has been weak. I put it down to a lack of experience. Quite naive really to position herself to the right of Blair during a Labour leadership election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    Danny565 Indeed, polls showed voters backed the 50p tax, wanted to renationalise the railways, showed little enthusiasm for free schools or private health contractors. Polls showed Labour fell down on being too generous on welfare spending, too willing to have an open door approach to immigration and voters also liked the Tories tax cuts for low and middle income earners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    SR It was supposedly hotter than Miami, Cannes and Dubai at one point today
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2015
    FPT: David Alton was 28 when he was first elected in the March 1979 Liverpool Edge Hill by-election. Here he is on the BBC's 1983 election programme, (at 1 min 15 secs):

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcEFUbMajws

    "1979: David Alton arrives in Parliament":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21689107
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,645
    john_zims said:

    @viewcode

    ' I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.'

    Yes, it's a win win for Syriza, vote Yes and they get the original deal with some better terms , vote No and they get a much better deal.

    They are running rings around the euro zone,I don't think anyone thought they would be so weak.

    Even the credit rating agencies are pretending Greece hasn't defaulted.

    They will pretend until the early hours of Monday morning.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    Jonathan said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Kendall needs to shine to persuade people like me (well, me) that she has the leadership qualities that will persuade us (well, me) to vote for style over substance. Initially I thought she would have 'it', but I have not seen anything like enough star quality to give her my vote.

    Liz, I can still be persuaded - dazzle in Newcastle and you might win me over.

    Liz should be able to get my vote, but she has not come close to winning it yet. Her campaign for leader as so far has been weak. I put it down to a lack of experience. Quite naive really to position herself to the right of Blair during a Labour leadership election.
    At the outset I thought (and stated here) that we needed new blood. Unfortunately, most of the new blood is either not standing (Chuka, Jarvis, Starmer), didn't make the ballot (Creagh) or standing for deputy (Stella) with only Liz left in the running. Bit of a bugger really.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    rcs1000 said:

    john_zims said:

    @viewcode

    ' I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.'

    Yes, it's a win win for Syriza, vote Yes and they get the original deal with some better terms , vote No and they get a much better deal.

    They are running rings around the euro zone,I don't think anyone thought they would be so weak.

    Even the credit rating agencies are pretending Greece hasn't defaulted.

    They will pretend until the early hours of Monday morning.
    I think Yanis genuinely thinks he's played a blinder, and there's no chance of Greece exiting the Euro.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,357
    Jonathan said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Kendall needs to shine to persuade people like me (well, me) that she has the leadership qualities that will persuade us (well, me) to vote for style over substance. Initially I thought she would have 'it', but I have not seen anything like enough star quality to give her my vote.

    Liz, I can still be persuaded - dazzle in Newcastle and you might win me over.

    Liz should be able to get my vote, but she has not come close to winning it yet. Her campaign for leader as so far has been weak. I put it down to a lack of experience. Quite naive really to position herself to the right of Blair during a Labour leadership election.
    Not so naive if that is the only route back to power for Labour.

    Failure to back Liz suggests Labour doesn't really want power. That would require it to acknowledge that Blairism was what won power for 13 years, not some nostalgic socialist notions that are long past their sell-by date.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The last day of my little Spanish break where temperatures have been in the 40s. Back on the train from Barcelona to Bedford tomorrow.

    Thanks to TSE and all who have contributed guest slots which have been at a high standard.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    O/T - the Canadian federal election looks fascinating. A very close three way fight in votes, and tight on seats too:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    rcs1000 said:

    john_zims said:

    @viewcode

    ' I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.'

    Yes, it's a win win for Syriza, vote Yes and they get the original deal with some better terms , vote No and they get a much better deal.

    They are running rings around the euro zone,I don't think anyone thought they would be so weak.

    Even the credit rating agencies are pretending Greece hasn't defaulted.

    They will pretend until the early hours of Monday morning.

    Didn't you say that about the beginning of this week, though?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,645
    MarkHopkins said:

    rcs1000 said:

    john_zims said:

    @viewcode

    ' I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.'

    Yes, it's a win win for Syriza, vote Yes and they get the original deal with some better terms , vote No and they get a much better deal.

    They are running rings around the euro zone,I don't think anyone thought they would be so weak.

    Even the credit rating agencies are pretending Greece hasn't defaulted.

    They will pretend until the early hours of Monday morning.

    Didn't you say that about the beginning of this week, though?

    The referendum "reset the clock". There will be no clock on Monday if the vote is "No".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    rcs1000 said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    rcs1000 said:

    john_zims said:

    @viewcode

    ' I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.'

    Yes, it's a win win for Syriza, vote Yes and they get the original deal with some better terms , vote No and they get a much better deal.

    They are running rings around the euro zone,I don't think anyone thought they would be so weak.

    Even the credit rating agencies are pretending Greece hasn't defaulted.

    They will pretend until the early hours of Monday morning.

    Didn't you say that about the beginning of this week, though?

    The referendum "reset the clock". There will be no clock on Monday if the vote is "No".
    I think the scrabble will then be for 20th July. A further fortnight reset is possible.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Kendall needs to shine to persuade people like me (well, me) that she has the leadership qualities that will persuade us (well, me) to vote for style over substance. Initially I thought she would have 'it', but I have not seen anything like enough star quality to give her my vote.

    Liz, I can still be persuaded - dazzle in Newcastle and you might win me over.

    Liz should be able to get my vote, but she has not come close to winning it yet. Her campaign for leader as so far has been weak. I put it down to a lack of experience. Quite naive really to position herself to the right of Blair during a Labour leadership election.
    Not so naive if that is the only route back to power for Labour.

    Failure to back Liz suggests Labour doesn't really want power. That would require it to acknowledge that Blairism was what won power for 13 years, not some nostalgic socialist notions that are long past their sell-by date.
    That depends on your viewpoint on whether it was Blair as a politician (leaving his policies aside) that won it for Labour, or 'Blairism' as an ideology.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2015
    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


    Lol. Glad to hear you've had a good holiday Mike! Hope you're feeling well rested and refreshed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


    I agree with this assessment! ABWNBPM!

    This can't be TSE's magnum opus on the AV, surely? It's far too short!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    edited July 2015
    OGH I prefer to take the opinion of the public to your own, while you are often bang on the money in 2010 I recall you said Ed Miliband was the best choice for Labour, did not quite turn out that way did it!

    I don't agree with much of what Burnham stands for but he is the most charismatic and likeable of the candidates. Could you point to anything Cameron had done which pointed to him being PM in 2005 other than being Lamont's SPAD and doing PR for Carlton TV, a second rank regional broadcaster? Come to think of it can you think of anything Blair did or Major did which made them outstanding candidates head and shoulders above their rivals? Yet those 3 have won every election since 1992
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    Casino Looks like an NDP-Liberal deal
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,040
    SandyRentool said:

    Jonathan said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Kendall needs to shine to persuade people like me (well, me) that she has the leadership qualities that will persuade us (well, me) to vote for style over substance. Initially I thought she would have 'it', but I have not seen anything like enough star quality to give her my vote.

    Liz, I can still be persuaded - dazzle in Newcastle and you might win me over.

    Liz should be able to get my vote, but she has not come close to winning it yet. Her campaign for leader as so far has been weak. I put it down to a lack of experience. Quite naive really to position herself to the right of Blair during a Labour leadership election.
    At the outset I thought (and stated here) that we needed new blood. Unfortunately, most of the new blood is either not standing (Chuka, Jarvis, Starmer), didn't make the ballot (Creagh) or standing for deputy (Stella) with only Liz left in the running. Bit of a bugger really.
    If I may be allowed to intrude upon your grief, it is obvious that Lab fear new new blood (although as you say some have ruled themselves out).

    But that is also a comment on what it takes to be a politician. Both Chuka & Jarvis have lives they would rather not sacrifice to the scrutiny and demands of a modern party leader's life. Starmer I have no idea.

    The ones therefore who are prepared are the old lags.

    So that is what Lab will end up with.

    And still people criticise politicians although professional politicians are the only type that get it and pursue it. Mostly.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


    Stop beating around the bush Mike. Tell us what you really think.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    HYUFD said:

    Casino Looks like an NDP-Liberal deal

    Yes, I think so. The Tories have been in power for over 9 years and they'll want to block them out. I think Harper will need to clock north of 150 seats to stay in office.

    Wish I could bet on it.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    Polls showed Labour fell down on being too generous on welfare spending, too willing to have an open door approach to immigration and voters also liked the Tories tax cuts for low and middle income earners.

    Don´t you mean, rather, that they liked the tax cuts for low and middle income earners that the Lib Dems forced the Tories to accept as government policy, instead of the tax cuts for millionaires that the Tories preferred?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    OGH I prefer to take the opinion of the public to your own, while you are often bang on the money in 2010 I recall you said Ed Miliband was the best choice for Labour, did not quite turn out that way did it!

    I don't agree with much of what Burnham stands for but he is the most charismatic and likeable of the candidates. Could you point to anything Cameron had done which pointed to him being PM in 2005 other than being Lamont's SPAD and doing PR for Carlton TV, a second rank regional broadcaster? Come to think of it can you think of anything Blair did or Major did which made them outstanding candidates head and shoulders above their rivals? Yet those 3 have won every election since 1992

    I never said Miliband was best choice for LAB leader but that he was the best bet based on my reading of the polling, which as it turned out, was not very good.

    So please don't misinterpret.

    Burnham would make a rubbish leader.

    It has to be one of the women.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    HYUFD said:

    Casino Looks like an NDP-Liberal deal

    And we all know what happens to the Liberals after they have been junior coalition partners. Germany, UK. Canada next?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    MikeSmithson said:

    The last day of my little Spanish break where temperatures have been in the 40s. Back on the train from Barcelona to Bedford tomorrow. Thanks to TSE and all who have contributed guest slots which have been at a high standard.

    Welcome back, Mr Smithson. Nothing very much happened in your absence.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    OGH We will have to agree to disagree on this, on my reading of the polling this time he is their best bet, then Kendall, then Cooper, then Corbyn, but we shall see
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino Looks like an NDP-Liberal deal

    And we all know what happens to the Liberals after they have been junior coalition partners. Germany, UK. Canada next?
    My reading is that Harper is seen as arrogant and is unpopular, but broadly competent and Trudeau is a wally, to coin a phrase from OGH.

    But the Canadian electorate is an unpredictable one. So it'll be interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    Casino Indeed, the Tories are polling almost 10% below their 2011 total

    SR Only this time the Liberals would be in Coalition with a party to their left
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    PCLipp They even favoured the inheritance tax cut
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    CR Trudeau looks like he should be lead singer in a boyband rather than PM, he leads the Liberals mainly because of his last name. Nonetheless he has increased the Liberal total in the polls and even if he has to take second place to PM Mulcair that will be an improvement for them on the disastrous election for them last time
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are people in Spain worried about the Greek situation?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    9 years in power is a good run, fair play to the Canadian Tories if they can eke out another win of some sort.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


    Mike They are all unsuitable. None of them looks or is prime ministerial.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    kle4 said:

    9 years in power is a good run, fair play to the Canadian Tories if they can eke out another win of some sort.

    I seem to remember the Queen intervening to prevent a no-confidence vote a few years back, allowing the Tories to stay in office.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    SandyRentool said:

    kle4 said:

    9 years in power is a good run, fair play to the Canadian Tories if they can eke out another win of some sort.

    I seem to remember the Queen intervening to prevent a no-confidence vote a few years back, allowing the Tories to stay in office.
    That'd be the Governor General, on advice of their ministers
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,209
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    OGH I prefer to take the opinion of the public to your own, while you are often bang on the money in 2010 I recall you said Ed Miliband was the best choice for Labour, did not quite turn out that way did it!

    I don't agree with much of what Burnham stands for but he is the most charismatic and likeable of the candidates. Could you point to anything Cameron had done which pointed to him being PM in 2005 other than being Lamont's SPAD and doing PR for Carlton TV, a second rank regional broadcaster? Come to think of it can you think of anything Blair did or Major did which made them outstanding candidates head and shoulders above their rivals? Yet those 3 have won every election since 1992

    I never said Miliband was best choice for LAB leader but that he was the best bet based on my reading of the polling, which as it turned out, was not very good.

    So please don't misinterpret.

    Burnham would make a rubbish leader.

    It has to be one of the women.
    I think the women will get an advantage from Harriet Harman's performance which is much more effective against Cameron than Ed's was. She is calm and gently puts him in his place. He doesn't want to look like a cad. I suspect some Labour members might judge that a woman is a better bet against Cameron (and Boris) than a man, and vote for one of the women on those grounds alone. It might just tip the balance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    RobD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    kle4 said:

    9 years in power is a good run, fair play to the Canadian Tories if they can eke out another win of some sort.

    I seem to remember the Queen intervening to prevent a no-confidence vote a few years back, allowing the Tories to stay in office.
    That'd be the Governor General, on advice of their ministers
    Quite!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    MikeSmithson said:

    The last day of my little Spanish break where temperatures have been in the 40s. Back on the train from Barcelona to Bedford tomorrow.

    Thanks to TSE and all who have contributed guest slots which have been at a high standard.

    Welcome back, Mike!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    MikeSmithson said:

    Back on the train from Barcelona to Bedford tomorrow.

    Must be a nice journey! I did London to Amsterdam by train back in Easter.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    MikeSmithson said:

    The last day of my little Spanish break where temperatures have been in the 40s. Back on the train from Barcelona to Bedford tomorrow.

    Thanks to TSE and all who have contributed guest slots which have been at a high standard.

    Hope you had a good break and enjoy the train ride!

    The guest slots have been top notch, I've been very impressed.

    (Do you always find a way to slip off on holiday when Events kick off? TSE must dread your breaks.)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair odds for tonight's semi-final:

    Lionesses 3.8
    Japan 2.2
    Draw 3.45

    Matched: £494,816

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/event?id=27477552&exp=e
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    I would say Burnham is crap, but not as crap as Ed.

    Remember, Ed "was the best PM we never had" :lol:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say Burnham is crap, but not as crap as Ed.

    Remember, Ed "was the best PM we never had" :lol:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

    and yet you voted Labour despite knowing Ed was unelectable ... interesting.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The dream ticket: Kendall with Corbyn as deputy leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    SR That is a non-statement, until you become PM no one looks Prime Ministerial
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    FPT @rcs1000

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yanis Varoufakis: "Why we recommend a NO in the referendum – in 6 short bullet points".

    http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/01/why-we-recommend-a-no-in-the-referendum-in-6-short-bullet-points/

    There's a lot I agree with in those. However, 5 is simply not true. While Greece cannot be evicted from the Eurozone by diktat, if its entire banking system disintegrates, and there is no way to pay for essential imports of oil or food, then it will have no choice but to print its own money. At which point is effectively leaves the Eurozone by its own hand.

    The actions of Greek government, in insisting that a Euro exit is not on the cards, is incredibly irresponsible. Come Monday morning, assuming a No vote, Greece will need to move very quickly to rebuild its economy. It needs to have notes and coins available, it needs to pass legislation, and it needs to get bank systems on to the new currency.

    This week should be preparation for this. Instead, this foolish insistence in the inevitability of staying in the Euro means Greece is woefully unprepared for next week. God help the Greeks.
    It is held to be the gospel truth by all Eurosceptics of my acquaintance (and most of everybody else), that Greece is imprisoned in the Euro involuntarily by the evil EU. As I have repeatedly[1] stated, Greece is in the Euro voluntarily and it will not leave without being coerced. I am concerned therefore that "No" will win resoundingly in the referendum and that the Eurozone, faced with the public relations disaster of starving Greek pensioners, will cave in and extend liquidity. thus enabling the banks to reopen.

    You are concerned that the Greeks will suffer. But Greece is a professional mendicant, and has been for many years now. It earns its living thru getting money from rich outsiders by inspiring pity and charity. The danger is not that Greece will be poor and bankrupt: it already is poor and bankrupt. The danger is that Greece will bankrupt Germany...


    [1] Almost as often as Sunil has made that 300 joke...:-)
    The ECB will have no credibility left whatsoever if it caves following a No vote. SYRIZA has gone too far this time, there is no game theory here the choice is stark. No = Grexit.

    The ECB and Germans will have the perfect cover to walk away from Greece in the event of a No vote as it will be the Greeks own choice. Not just the Greek government's choice, but the Greek voters choice too. There is no public relations mess to deal with once that happens - any consequences will be the direct result of the Greeks voting No.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html




    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


    Ridiculous.

    Burnham is an attractive and eloquent politician. Labour are lucky to have him.

    The cruel Spanish sun must have got to you.

    "Other symptoms and signs of heat stroke may include confusion, combativeness, bizarre behavior, feeling faint, staggering, strong rapid pulse, dry flushed skin, and lack of sweating. Delirium or coma can also result from heat stroke."
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SquareRoot said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say Burnham is crap, but not as crap as Ed.

    Remember, Ed "was the best PM we never had" :lol:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

    and yet you voted Labour despite knowing Ed was unelectable ... interesting.
    Probably only a (futile) attempt to save his ELBOW's blushes :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    edited July 2015
    SquareRoot said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I would say Burnham is crap, but not as crap as Ed.

    Remember, Ed "was the best PM we never had" :lol:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

    and yet you voted Labour despite knowing Ed was unelectable ... interesting.
    Are you kidding? That was beautiful - did you see the way Labour fell into our trap?

    :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Temperatures are forecast to drop by about 10 degrees tomorrow in most places. London 26 instead of 36.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    SR That is a non-statement, until you become PM no one looks Prime Ministerial

    Cameron and Blair looked Prime Ministerial from opposition. Not as Prime Ministerial as they did after winning, but about as Prime Ministerial as the actual Prime Ministers they were facing come the election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2015
    Casino_Royale said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino Looks like an NDP-Liberal deal

    And we all know what happens to the Liberals after they have been junior coalition partners. Germany, UK. Canada next?
    My reading is that Harper is seen as arrogant and is unpopular, but broadly competent and Trudeau is a wally, to coin a phrase from OGH.

    But the Canadian electorate is an unpredictable one. So it'll be interesting.
    I'm pretty sure the Conservatives will poll at least 35%, even though the polls are currently putting them on about 29%. I expect we'll see the same underestimates of centre-right support that we've seen elsewhere recently. (They received 39.6% in 2011).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    SR That is a non-statement, until you become PM no one looks Prime Ministerial

    Cameron and Blair looked Prime Ministerial from opposition. Not as Prime Ministerial as they did after winning, but about as Prime Ministerial as the actual Prime Ministers they were facing come the election.
    I remember many people saying how they couldn't imagine Cameron as PM, before he got there.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cameron led Brown in all Best PM polling in the two years before the 2010 General Election. He took a lead a few times prior but from April 2008 to May 2010 Cameron always bested Brown as Best PM in polls.

    If that's not looking Prime Ministerial in your eyes then what is? The voters thought he was, which is why they said so in the polls and why they made him PM at the election.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    SR That is a non-statement, until you become PM no one looks Prime Ministerial

    Cameron and Blair looked Prime Ministerial from opposition. Not as Prime Ministerial as they did after winning, but about as Prime Ministerial as the actual Prime Ministers they were facing come the election.
    Major probably looks more PM-material now, than he ever did in the 1990s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,078
    AndyJS said:

    Temperatures are forecast to drop by about 10 degrees tomorrow in most places. London 26 instead of 36.

    Positively Siberian. The poor devils.

    Night all.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    SR That is a non-statement, until you become PM no one looks Prime Ministerial

    Cameron and Blair looked Prime Ministerial from opposition. Not as Prime Ministerial as they did after winning, but about as Prime Ministerial as the actual Prime Ministers they were facing come the election.
    Major probably looks more PM-material now, than he ever did in the 1990s.
    In middle age Major was afflicted by a phantom mustache which has now disappeared as his hair has gone white. His looks have certainly improved with age.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cameron led Brown in all Best PM polling in the two years before the 2010 General Election. He took a lead a few times prior but from April 2008 to May 2010 Cameron always bested Brown as Best PM in polls.

    If that's not looking Prime Ministerial in your eyes then what is? The voters thought he was, which is why they said so in the polls and why they made him PM at the election.

    It would be pretty hard for a party which was ahead by 25 points, as the Tories were, to not have their leader ahead in the Best PM ratings!

    In the election just gone, I would've answered Miliband to the question of preferred PM (because it was the price of a Labour government), even though I never thought he was prime-ministerial and constantly said so on PB!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2015
    On topic, the real question is whether Peter Kellner is right on this. The great antifrank argued on the previous thread that he wasn't: Jeremy Corbyn would be eliminated on the first round, or failing that certainly on the second round, which would effectively mean that his candidacy had little or no effect on the final result.

    My own view is that antifrank is probably correct. Obviously if Corbyn is eliminated on round one that's the end of his influence: most of his 2nd prefs will go to Burnham. Alternatively, Liz Kendal might be the first to head for the exit - certainly it looks as though her campaign is going nowhere fast - in which case it's hard to see Corbyn going anywhere other than backwards on round 2 relative to Cooper and Burnham, who between them will pick up nearly all of the Kendall 2nd prefs (with Cooper probably doing better in this regard).

    Still, Corbyn does seem to be getting a higher than expected degree of support: I'm expecting a Cooper vs Burnham final round, but there is a degree of unpredictability in this.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Danny565 said:

    I remember many people saying how they couldn't imagine Cameron as PM, before he got there.

    That's not what Labour MPs thought. Read Chris Mullin's diaries, for example.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    edited July 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:


    The ECB and Germans will have the perfect cover to walk away from Greece in the event of a No vote as it will be the Greeks own choice. Not just the Greek government's choice, but the Greek voters choice too. There is no public relations mess to deal with once that happens - any consequences will be the direct result of the Greeks voting No.

    Except of course that it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro in a controlled manner:
    1) Less mess in detaching from the Euro and control mechanisms
    2) Countering any suggestion that the Eurozone is heartless ("Look we are helping. We are good guys") - I'm sure Mercedes & BMW still want to sell to Greece...eventually.
    3) Doesn't put off EU countries yet to join the eurozone ("Look. If it doesn't work out, in the worst case we will help you exit")
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    As regards the betting, the movements have been rather odd. Yvette Cooper was far too long to start with, then gradually things moved towards a more sensible balance - I laid some Yvette off at 2.96 on the 26th June - and now she seems to have drifted out a bit. Hard to see why.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    FOOTBALL....must have FOOTBALL....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,671
    RobD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


    I agree with this assessment! ABWNBPM!

    This can't be TSE's magnum opus on the AV, surely? It's far too short!!
    My AV magnum opus will now appear in a few Sundays time.

    Don't want to give you a sugar rush of AV threads back to back.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic, the real question is whether Peter Kellner is right on this. The great antifrank argued on the previous thread that he wasn't: Jeremy Corbyn would be eliminated on the first round, or failing that certainly on the second round, which would effectively mean that his candidacy had little or no effect on the final result.

    My own view is that antifrank is probably correct. Obviously if Corbyn is eliminated on round one that's the end of his influence: most of his 2nd prefs will go to Burnham. Alternatively, Liz Kendal might be the first to head for the exit - certainly it looks as though her campaign is going nowhere fast - in which case it's hard to see Corbyn going anywhere other than backwards on round 2 relative to Cooper and Burnham, who between them will pick up nearly all of the Kendall 2nd prefs (with Cooper probably doing better in this regard).

    Still, Corbyn does seem to be getting a higher than expected degree of support: I'm expecting a Cooper vs Burnham final round, but there is a degree of unpredictability in this.

    I am not saying I would back Corbyn to be leader but there are several factors that may play in his favour: (1) the very heavy weighting of London members in the Labour Party; (2) potential entry ism by hard-left groups; (3) what seems like a growing mythology that Labour lost not because they were too long but that they had a poor messenger and (4) I suspect Osborne - being a tactician - will throw a grenade into the contest by cutting the top rate of tax to 40pc, which would please his MPs but put Labour leftists in a frenzy and may encourage a more left wing view (and put the Labour candidates on the spot).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,671
    edited July 2015
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As regards the betting, the movements have been rather odd. Yvette Cooper was far too long to start with, then gradually things moved towards a more sensible balance - I laid some Yvette off at 2.96 on the 26th June - and now she seems to have drifted out a bit. Hard to see why.

    I think it might be because of that ORB poll.

    Cooper was seen as a net negative.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,731
    Can't remember when it was last 26 at gone 11 in England...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,671
    I expect a lot of BBC bashing tomorrow.

    They've told the Times

    "We must be fair to Islamic State" and they are going to keep on calling them Islamic State
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,906
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MM Problem is Kendall would totally turn-off Scotland and risks losing some voters to the Greens even if she wins floating voters in England and Wales too. An ORB poll for the Independent of the public last week gave Burnham a net favourability of +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6% and Corbyn -15%
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html

    As for Blair, don't forget in 1997 even he promised to end assisted places, impose a windfall tax on privatised utilities, increase the minimum wage and opt out of the social chapter

    But get this into your head that Burnham is a total Wally with few political skills and an appalling communicator. If he gets it then Labour is totally dead. A man who has never had an original thought except that he's a scouser who went to Cambridge.

    Can you point you anything that he has ever done that points to him being being a serious candidate for Number 10?

    From Labour's perspective he would at least make EdM look good.

    The reason that the Tories have been able to hand Stafford round his neck has been because of his zero political skills.


    I agree with this assessment! ABWNBPM!

    This can't be TSE's magnum opus on the AV, surely? It's far too short!!
    My AV magnum opus will now appear in a few Sundays time.

    Don't want to give you a sugar rush of AV threads back to back.
    TSE, you do this, you'll never sit in the Captain's chair again!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,731
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As regards the betting, the movements have been rather odd. Yvette Cooper was far too long to start with, then gradually things moved towards a more sensible balance - I laid some Yvette off at 2.96 on the 26th June - and now she seems to have drifted out a bit. Hard to see why.

    I'm

    +5.6 Cooper
    +4.4 Burnham
    +3.5 Corbyn
    +1.9 Kendall
    -1.2 Other

    Stuck like a pig if thunderbird Miliband is go :P

    With hindsight I should have put more on Cooper at 8s+, that was such an obvious back to lay.

    My most recent move was to reback Burnham actually, managed to do that at 2.26 for a ton ^^;

    Do I lay off Corbyn for ~ £20 tho - ho hum...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As regards the betting, the movements have been rather odd. Yvette Cooper was far too long to start with, then gradually things moved towards a more sensible balance - I laid some Yvette off at 2.96 on the 26th June - and now she seems to have drifted out a bit. Hard to see why.

    Perhaps you undersell your own influence, Mr Nabavi?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Tissue_Price said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As regards the betting, the movements have been rather odd. Yvette Cooper was far too long to start with, then gradually things moved towards a more sensible balance - I laid some Yvette off at 2.96 on the 26th June - and now she seems to have drifted out a bit. Hard to see why.

    Perhaps you undersell your own influence, Mr Nabavi?
    Ah yes, how silly of me!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,749
    PT Heath actually trailed Wilson as best PM but became PM so while it helps to lead on that score even if you don't does not mean you won't win, Churchill was probably seen as more Prime Ministerial than Attlee in 1945 for instance

    TSE Yes, that may have had a slight impact
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Barnesian said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    OGH I prefer to take the opinion of the public to your own, while you are often bang on the money in 2010 I recall you said Ed Miliband was the best choice for Labour, did not quite turn out that way did it!

    I don't agree with much of what Burnham stands for but he is the most charismatic and likeable of the candidates. Could you point to anything Cameron had done which pointed to him being PM in 2005 other than being Lamont's SPAD and doing PR for Carlton TV, a second rank regional broadcaster? Come to think of it can you think of anything Blair did or Major did which made them outstanding candidates head and shoulders above their rivals? Yet those 3 have won every election since 1992

    I never said Miliband was best choice for LAB leader but that he was the best bet based on my reading of the polling, which as it turned out, was not very good.

    So please don't misinterpret.

    Burnham would make a rubbish leader.

    It has to be one of the women.
    I think the women will get an advantage from Harriet Harman's performance which is much more effective against Cameron than Ed's was. She is calm and gently puts him in his place. He doesn't want to look like a cad. I suspect some Labour members might judge that a woman is a better bet against Cameron (and Boris) than a man, and vote for one of the women on those grounds alone. It might just tip the balance.
    Harriet who?
    Possibly people will not like me being blunt but far too many PBers have learned nothing over the last 5 years. There is no evidence that Harman's performances are more or less effective in any field vis a vis Cameron. There is no evidence that the population have noticed anything about anyone since the election, certainly not PMQs. To what extent did the endless agonising about particular PMQs affect the election when it arrived?
    Yet we are to believe that the (admittedly thick) Labour party electorate are to base their vote on the invisible performances of a has been (never was) woman who went to the poshest girls school in the country as a guide for who they should vote for?

    Who knows who labourites should vote for. It would be best for them to ignore all all the advice because they are in the middle of a minefield.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I expect a lot of BBC bashing tomorrow.

    They've told the Times

    "We must be fair to Islamic State" and they are going to keep on calling them Islamic State

    Would they be fair to a European fascist party? Thought not. And IS are just as bad.
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