They've told the Times"We must be fair to Islamic State" and they are going to keep on calling them Islamic State
This is a very clever code. Those people who would have been rejected by Bletchley Park will have translated this as 'Don't blow us up'. But the real crib reads ' We are screaming Lefties'
On topic, the real question is whether Peter Kellner is right on this. The great antifrank argued on the previous thread that he wasn't: Jeremy Corbyn would be eliminated on the first round, or failing that certainly on the second round, which would effectively mean that his candidacy had little or no effect on the final result.
My own view is that antifrank is probably correct. Obviously if Corbyn is eliminated on round one that's the end of his influence: most of his 2nd prefs will go to Burnham. Alternatively, Liz Kendal might be the first to head for the exit - certainly it looks as though her campaign is going nowhere fast - in which case it's hard to see Corbyn going anywhere other than backwards on round 2 relative to Cooper and Burnham, who between them will pick up nearly all of the Kendall 2nd prefs (with Cooper probably doing better in this regard).
Still, Corbyn does seem to be getting a higher than expected degree of support: I'm expecting a Cooper vs Burnham final round, but there is a degree of unpredictability in this.
I am not saying I would back Corbyn to be leader but there are several factors that may play in his favour: (1) the very heavy weighting of London members in the Labour Party; (2) potential entry ism by hard-left groups; (3) what seems like a growing mythology that Labour lost not because they were too long but that they had a poor messenger and (4) I suspect Osborne - being a tactician - will throw a grenade into the contest by cutting the top rate of tax to 40pc, which would please his MPs but put Labour leftists in a frenzy and may encourage a more left wing view (and put the Labour candidates on the spot).
Not sure about that last point. I don't think even Kendall would have so little political nous as to back another cut in top-rate tax.
Except of course that it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro in a controlled manner: 1) Less mess in detaching from the Euro and control mechanisms 2) Countering any suggestion that the Eurozone is heartless ("Look we are helping. We are good guys") - I'm sure Mercedes & BMW still want to sell to Greece...eventually. 3) Doesn't put off EU countries yet to join the eurozone ("Look. If it doesn't work out, in the worst case we will help you exit")
You can't "assist the Greeks [to leave] the euro in a controlled manner". You have to break their fingers one-by-one to make them let go whilst they scream "my preciouss". Tsipiras just ranted at length on telly on this very point, and Varoufakis has threatened to go to court to prevent them being ejected from the Euro. Why doesn't anybody grasp this simple point? They are not prisoners, they are squatters. The cannot be helped to leave, they have to be evicted.
And as for the "Eurozone is heartless": it has to become so or deservedly die. We have Juncker, a sentimental romanticist, complaining of feeling betrayed. His personal issues should be of relevance to nobody but himself. Any system as overtly reliant on personal qualities as the Eurozone is deserves to die. It should be as simple and automatic as a piggybank. Until it becomes so, unclouded by sentiment or remorse, it will always be a disaster waiting to happen.
Except of course that it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro in a controlled manner: 1) Less mess in detaching from the Euro and control mechanisms 2) Countering any suggestion that the Eurozone is heartless ("Look we are helping. We are good guys") - I'm sure Mercedes & BMW still want to sell to Greece...eventually. 3) Doesn't put off EU countries yet to join the eurozone ("Look. If it doesn't work out, in the worst case we will help you exit")
You can't "assist the Greeks [to leave] the euro in a controlled manner". You have to break their fingers one-by-one to make them let go whilst they scream "my preciouss". Tsipiras just ranted at length on telly on this very point, and Varoufakis has threatened to go to court to prevent them being ejected from the Euro. Why doesn't anybody grasp this simple point? They are not prisoners, they are squatters. The cannot be helped to leave, they have to be evicted.
And as for the "Eurozone is heartless": it has to become so or deservedly die. We have Juncker, a sentimental romanticist, complaining of feeling betrayed. His personal issues should be of relevance to nobody but himself. Any system as overtly reliant on personal qualities as the Eurozone is deserves to die. It should be as simple and automatic as a piggybank. Until it becomes so, unclouded by sentiment or remorse, it will always be a disaster waiting to happen.
My whole point is that the Eurozone should do what is coolly and rationally in its own interests to limit the damage that the Greeks are doing to it - because as rcs1000 pointed out earlier the Greeks will have to leave anyway with a NO vote .
What is the reason for these anti-Greek polemics? (And this isn't your first one) Is there some bad blood between you and Greece? A bad holiday, perhaps?
Speedy Agree. Looks like Greece's fate is in the hands of the DK's, but No on at least 40%+
The polling average so far is NO 43%, YES 40.5% But wait till Friday night.
The poor are likely to vote No since they haven't got anything to lose, the well-off Yes because they have, and the DKs are probably mostly the lower-middle classes.
Cameron led Brown in all Best PM polling in the two years before the 2010 General Election. He took a lead a few times prior but from April 2008 to May 2010 Cameron always bested Brown as Best PM in polls.
If that's not looking Prime Ministerial in your eyes then what is? The voters thought he was, which is why they said so in the polls and why they made him PM at the election.
It would be pretty hard for a party which was ahead by 25 points, as the Tories were, to not have their leader ahead in the Best PM ratings!
In the election just gone, I would've answered Miliband to the question of preferred PM (because it was the price of a Labour government), even though I never thought he was prime-ministerial and constantly said so on PB!
Though Cameron's rating on Best PM relative to the party poll gap was frequently better against both Brown and Miliband versus Labour. So in office Cameron was always seen as more Prime Ministerial than his party was preferred, in opposition he was frequently seen as more Prime Ministerial than his party was preferred.
Eg in the YouGov/Telegraph of 29.01.10 the Tories had a seven point lead, but Cameron had a 10 point lead.
Either way it shows HYUFD's claim that nobody seems Prime Ministerial until they are elected. Cameron did, Blair did. Maybe not to everyone, but he certainly did even to people who didn't support his party before he was elected.
My whole point is that the Eurozone should do what is coolly and rationally in its own interests to limit the damage that the Greeks are doing to it - because as rcs1000 pointed out earlier the Greeks will have to leave anyway with a NO vote
Your intent may have been to suggest a course of action that is coolly and rationally in its own interests. But it was based on a false assumption: namely, that Greece is in the Eurozone involuntarily and wants to leave. It isn't and it doesn't. Without acknowledging the facts on the ground, your plan would fail
PT Not the same thing, as I also said in 1970 Wilson led comfortably in the preferred PM stakes and looked 'more prime ministerial' than Heath, but Heath became PM. Same in 1945 with Attlee and Churchill
Speedy Agree. Looks like Greece's fate is in the hands of the DK's, but No on at least 40%+
The polling average so far is NO 43%, YES 40.5% But wait till Friday night.
The poor are likely to vote No since they haven't got anything to lose, the well-off Yes because they have, and the DKs are probably mostly the lower-middle classes.
I agree with that assessment. Also the old will vote YES and the young NO. That is why if the opinion polls show it's close, then the weather will be the decisive factor.
Also the reason I think that greek opinion polls to some extent are more accurate than british polls is that all of them are phone polls and the population make up and distribution is very stable.
Bloody hell, almost every game at this World Cup has had a penalty where the foul was committed outside the area. (Bit of an exaggeration, but still...)
Your intent may have been to suggest a course of action that is coolly and rationally in its own interests. But it was based on a false assumption: namely, that Greece is in the Eurozone involuntarily and wants to leave. It isn't and it doesn't. Without acknowledging the facts on the ground, your plan would fail
Sorry, but you are the one making false assumptions. I am NOT assuming that "that Greece is in the Eurozone involuntarily" and NOT that it "wants to leave". Where did I say that?
I merely responded to YOUR SCENARIO: "The ECB and Germans will have the perfect cover to walk away from Greece in the event of a No vote as it will be the Greeks own choice. Not just the Greek government's choice, but the Greek voters choice too. There is no public relations mess to deal with once that happens - any consequences will be the direct result of the Greeks voting No."
All I said was: "Except of course that it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro in a controlled manner:" Then I listed reasons why it would be good PR.
"Berlin has delivered a blistering attack on Greece’s beleaguered radical prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, accusing him of lying to his own people and seeking scapegoats for the country’s misery everywhere but in his own ranks."
Sorry, but you are the one making false assumptions. I am NOT assuming that "that Greece is in the Eurozone involuntarily" and NOT that it "wants to leave". Where did I say that?
When you said "...it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro..." The use of the word "assist" implies that you think Greece is trying to leave the Euro and requires assistance to do so. But Greece isn't trying to leave the Euro. It's demanding to be left in. It isn't a prisoner, it's a squatter. You don't assist squatters to leave, you evict them. Reluctance to acknowledge this fact is costing billions of Euros.
Sorry, but you are the one making false assumptions. I am NOT assuming that "that Greece is in the Eurozone involuntarily" and NOT that it "wants to leave". Where did I say that?
When you said "...it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro..." The use of the word "assist" implies that you think Greece is trying to leave the Euro and requires assistance to do so. But Greece isn't trying to leave the Euro. It's demanding to be left in. It isn't a prisoner, it's a squatter. You don't assist squatters to leave, you evict them. Reluctance to acknowledge this fact is costing billions of Euros.
Ah! All is now smiles :-) What I said could be interpreted in the way that you did.
With hindsight, what I should have said to make myself clear was not: "Except of course that it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro in a controlled manner:"
but something like "Except of course that it would be good PR to ENSURE that the Greeks in leaving the Euro did so in a manner that limited any damage to the Eurozone:"
"Berlin has delivered a blistering attack on Greece’s beleaguered radical prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, accusing him of lying to his own people and seeking scapegoats for the country’s misery everywhere but in his own ranks."
I thought that the article would suggest that Burnham's votes would be split by Corbyn, and that he would be damaged by some of those votes being non-transferable after Corbyn is eliminated. I didn't think anyone would be booliakterous enough to suggest that Corbyn might outpoll Burnham in the first round.
Comments
http://www.fifa.com/womensworldcup/matches/round=268016/match=300269504/index.html#statistics#nosticky
This time from a company that underestimated the SYRIZA victory in January by 5 points.
NO 40.2%
YES 37%
D/K 22.8%
I'll wait till friday night for a proper estimate, but the odds for NO still look good at 13/8 at Ladbrokes.
And as for the "Eurozone is heartless": it has to become so or deservedly die. We have Juncker, a sentimental romanticist, complaining of feeling betrayed. His personal issues should be of relevance to nobody but himself. Any system as overtly reliant on personal qualities as the Eurozone is deserves to die. It should be as simple and automatic as a piggybank. Until it becomes so, unclouded by sentiment or remorse, it will always be a disaster waiting to happen.
But wait till Friday night.
What is the reason for these anti-Greek polemics? (And this isn't your first one) Is there some bad blood between you and Greece? A bad holiday, perhaps?
No signs here at the East Mids/Yorks border.
Eg in the YouGov/Telegraph of 29.01.10 the Tories had a seven point lead, but Cameron had a 10 point lead.
Either way it shows HYUFD's claim that nobody seems Prime Ministerial until they are elected. Cameron did, Blair did. Maybe not to everyone, but he certainly did even to people who didn't support his party before he was elected.
Interesting site:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-30/greeks-nightmare-just-beginning-here-come-depositor-haircuts
Also the old will vote YES and the young NO.
That is why if the opinion polls show it's close, then the weather will be the decisive factor.
Also the reason I think that greek opinion polls to some extent are more accurate than british polls is that all of them are phone polls and the population make up and distribution is very stable.
I merely responded to YOUR SCENARIO:
"The ECB and Germans will have the perfect cover to walk away from Greece in the event of a No vote as it will be the Greeks own choice. Not just the Greek government's choice, but the Greek voters choice too. There is no public relations mess to deal with once that happens - any consequences will be the direct result of the Greeks voting No."
All I said was:
"Except of course that it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro in a controlled manner:"
Then I listed reasons why it would be good PR.
Why are you so prickly on this?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/01/greece-crisis-berlin-blasts-tsipras-scapegoats-germany
"Berlin has delivered a blistering attack on Greece’s beleaguered radical prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, accusing him of lying to his own people and seeking scapegoats for the country’s misery everywhere but in his own ranks."
With hindsight, what I should have said to make myself clear was not:
"Except of course that it would be good PR to assist the Greeks in leaving the Euro in a controlled manner:"
but something like
"Except of course that it would be good PR to ENSURE that the Greeks in leaving the Euro did so in a manner that limited any damage to the Eurozone:"
Merkel = Xerxes
The Trump bandwagon rolls on - "Well, somebody's doing the raping!"
https://twitter.com/dpbain83/status/616393232981852162
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/06/report-in-test-dogfight-f-35-gets-waxed-by-f-16/