On home ownership, what strikes me is just how few have been built over the last 20 years. And that the few that have been built offer nothing like the living space of homes built up until c.1985.
I went back to the town I grew up in the weekend. I have been back many times, but this time I was explicitly looking at homes and house prices. With the view that my wife and I might like to move there to start a family.
Since the mid-1990s, the boundaries of the town have not changed *at all*. There has been some new (high density) housing development - one on the site of the old hospital, another on the site of an old pub and petrol station, and some redevelopment of property with very large gardens to accommodate 2 or 3 extra plots - but that's about it.
In the 1970s, this town had two huge new private sector developments (several hundred plots) of 3-4 detached family homes, all with decent front and back gardens, and garages. In fact, my parents bought one in 1980. But now, nothing like that.
Since then an extra six million people have moved to the UK, most settling in London and the south-east. My parents house, which they sold in 1999 for £140k, would now go for c.£420k.
Something has to give. In this case, it's the price. And it's pricing hundreds of thousands out.
The issue of "town boundaries" is always contentious-the issue of "village confines" even more so.
Things are starting to change-not because the Local Councillors are waking up or because of political pressure but in no small part because the senior council officials are at long last starting to take an active role in identifying suitable sites for development or redevelopment.
The land is available-the issue is whether we choose to us it. The biggest barrier to development going forwards will be the introduction of CIL (Community Investment Levy) charges.
Too many Council officials are seeing this as a way of filling the funding gap and have over priced the relevant charges. Unless addressed there will be a hiatus in planning applications whilst everyone finds the balance.
And the abolition of urban fringe policies in the national planning policy framework.
Casino Scotland is exactly like Quebec and in particular in the growth of their respective nationalist parties both before and after their referendums. The key argument Labour made in 2015 was a vote for the SNP was a vote for David Cameron to be PM and a Tory government and that was proved to be correct, many SNP voters believed they were voting for a Labour-SNP coalition with Sturgeon pulling the strings, as it is some No voters and even a few Yes voters who voted SNP may well grit their teeth and vote Labour again at Westminster to get the Tories out
Casino Scotland is exactly like Quebec and in particular in the growth of their respective nationalist parties both before and after their referendums. The key argument Labour made in 2015 was a vote for the SNP was a vote for David Cameron to be PM and a Tory government and that was proved to be correct, many SNP voters believed they were voting for a Labour-SNP coalition with Sturgeon pulling the strings, as it is some No voters who voted SNP may well grit their teeth and vote Labour again at Westminster to get the Tories out
Unless labour strongly support EV4EL then I do not see English voters changing their minds and winning back a few seats in Scotland without a major change in England is not going to help Labour.
The decline in home ownership is indeed a big threat to the Tories.
True. There is a complete absence of desire to tackle it. Unclear why they do not build lots of private skyscrapers in London for example.
The English don't want to live in high-density skyscrapers in London. They want to buy decent-sized family detached homes with gardens. An Englishman's home is his castle: it's embedded deep within our culture psych.
We were good at building these in the late Victorian era, the 1930s, the 1950s and up until the early 1980s.
The Conservatives still won elections. Why we can't do so now is a mystery to me.
As an Englishman, I'd much rather live in a high rise in the centre of town!
Seriously: 26 year old singles want to live in high rise apartments, and 35 year olds with two small kids want to live in a house with a garden.
And if there is no demand people will not buy them. Let people vote with their wallets.
There are other interesting nuances too. Hipsters are happy in city apartments, but so too are many EU migrants who are used to apartment living rather than houses. Fewer young people want big gardens, just somewhere to park and somewhere to eat al fresco. The rosebed is dying out. Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc. Generally households are smaller and people want more living room space than bedrooms, but each child must have their own.
The British home is evolving. What sells is what sells.
That's a very skewed metropolitan view. Of course, there will always be different tastes to cater for (and rightly so) but I don't think the average British home is evolving much at all.
All of my friends (widespread political views) whom have lived in London the last 5-10 years now want - without exception - to move out and buy a family home with a garden. What frustrates most people is having to pay £400k+ for a matchbox, because that's all new-build offers today.
Incidentally, the rosebed is absolutely very much alive around here.
The ironic thing about the value of aspiration (in regard to the South) is that it is not necessarily a 'conservative value'. The Labour movement arose, because it wanted to help improve the lives of the most poorest in our society - in many ways, that in itself is aspirational. Right now, the debate on aspiration feels so individualistic - as oppose to a message on aspiration that can apply to the whole of society. Labour, can and should provide that message on aspiration. In our society, social mobility has declined in recent decades, telling us that meritocracy as we know it is being undermined.
One thing which I think threatens the Tories' in the long-term is the potential decline of home-ownership. At the heart of conservative aspiration is home-ownership. But increasingly, for my generation owning our own home feels like a fantasy, rather than a possible reality. With a low wage, low productivity economy, rising housing costs, and it being harder to get a mortgage, potentially the expansion of the middle classes is under threat. It is why, if I were a senior Conservative housing would be one of my biggest priorities. Not just morally, but politically.
The decline in home ownership is indeed a big threat to the Tories.
True. There is a complete absence of desire to tackle it. Unclear why they do not build lots of private skyscrapers in London for example.
The English don't want to live in high-density skyscrapers in London. They want to buy decent-sized family detached homes with gardens. An Englishman's home is his castle: it's embedded deep within our culture psych.
We were good at building these in the late Victorian era, the 1930s, the 1950s and up until the early 1980s.
The Conservatives still won elections. Why we can't do so now is a mystery to me.
As an Englishman, I'd much rather live in a high rise in the centre of town!
Seriously: 26 year old singles want to live in high rise apartments, and 35 year olds with two small kids want to live in a house with a garden.
And if there is no demand people will not buy them. Let people vote with their wallets.
Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc.
Mum won Redbridge in Bloom for her front garden last year
Congratulations to her!
My Asian colleagues are often puzzled and amused at my enthusiasm for gardening. They have spent generations trying to get away from manual labour and geting their hands dirty. Why on earth would anyone do that for fun? And camping is beyond the pale too!
Planning policy has been significantly loosened over the last three years or so, but the requirement for affordable homes, and various infrastructure levies push up the developer costs massively. I know in my area we have seen massive designation of land for housing over the next ten to fifteen years.
The land maybe designated but it does not follow that it will be developed anytime soon.
A large (500+home) scheme will typically take a minimum of 3 years to be completed from the initial development discussions-often a lot longer.
It's up to the marketplace to determine the rate it builds houses, all a government can/should do is roll back things that delay and increase costs of development. There are legitimate areas of enquiry re land banking be developers. Buying up land they have no real intention of developing to stop others doing it. Not sure if a government should actively prevent it, but it could charge a levy (in the way that business rates are charged on empty commercial properties).
How long it takes from start to finish isnt really that important. They start and they are in the system.
Its like saying lets not trying to climb the mountain because the peak seems too far away.
I actually think land banking is a tiny problem and mainly relates to commercial sites-in particular supermarkets and fuel/car showrooms.
The vast majority of land for residential development is used quite quickly for development-the biggest reason for the delays is meeting the array of pre-planning consultation requirements and then the subsequent planning conditions prior to commencement of works.
All things which as you clearly state could and should be addressed.
The decline in home ownership is indeed a big threat to the Tories.
True. There is a complete absence of desire to tackle it. Unclear why they do not build lots of private skyscrapers in London for example.
The English don't want to live in high-density skyscrapers in London. They want to buy decent-sized family detached homes with gardens. An Englishman's home is his castle: it's embedded deep within our culture psych.
We were good at building these in the late Victorian era, the 1930s, the 1950s and up until the early 1980s.
The Conservatives still won elections. Why we can't do so now is a mystery to me.
As an Englishman, I'd much rather live in a high rise in the centre of town!
Seriously: 26 year old singles want to live in high rise apartments, and 35 year olds with two small kids want to live in a house with a garden.
And if there is no demand people will not buy them. Let people vote with their wallets.
There are other interesting nuances too. Hipsters are happy in city apartments, but so too are many EU migrants who are used to apartment living rather than houses. Fewer young people want big gardens, just somewhere to park and somewhere to eat al fresco. The rosebed is dying out. Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc. Generally households are smaller and people want more living room space than bedrooms, but each child must have their own.
The British home is evolving. What sells is what sells.
That's a very skewed metropolitan view. Of course, there will always be different tastes to cater for (and rightly so) but I don't think the average British home is evolving much at all.
All of my friends (widespread political views) whom have lived in London the last 5-10 years now want - without exception - to move out and buy a family home with a garden. What frustrates most people is having to pay £400k+ for a matchbox, because that's all new-build offers today.
Incidentally, the rosebed is absolutely very much alive around here.
Right, must dash. Goodnight all.
I live in a detached house in a village, rosebed and all. But I do see that is not for everybody. There are far fewer well kept gardens than there used to be.
I stopped reading here. Scotland is not "exactly like Quebec". Quebec has never been a distinct sovereign nation. It speaks a different first language from the rest of Canada. It's on a different continent. It has a different political culture. It's history, religion and even law have been distinct - and distinctly recognised - from the off when Britain first brought it within its empire. It's economy is vastly different from Scotland. And so on..
I understand why you're making the comparison and parallel with it, because it looks and feels similar to Scotland, but I just don't agree with it. You may turn out to be right, I rule nothing out, but not for the reasons you've cited which are just slim parallels.
"And the abolition of urban fringe policies in the national planning policy framework."
Dont know much about that-will it affect things greatly??
Yes, the ability to block development that lies at the edge of an urban area, because it begins to move into the buffer between built up areas is reduced. The policy had facilitated the freezing of city/town boundaries.
I think they share an ability to sit above the political landscape and turn on a six-pence when required by the realities of power. When Merkel first became Chancellor she stood on a fairly radical liberal economic platform with a finance spokesperson advocating the introduction of a flat tax. Then when the expected victory turned into a virtual dead-heat she was able to force Schroeder out of office against his will while jettisoning most of her platform in order to form a grand coalition. They're both fairly inscrutable but, I believe, do have a sense of what they want to achieve.
Perhaps what they most have in common is an instinct for power.
I would question Cameron sitting above the political landscape - I think the last political leader in this country to really do that effectively, was Blair circa 1997-1999. One area where Merkel and Cameron are similar, as you say is that they are both fairly inscrutable. But on Merkel's part, I get the sense that this is deliberate. German politics is often about the art of negotiation and flexibility - showing your hand too soon is not advisable. On top of that, Merkel grew up in communist East Germany, where she would have been used to keeping her political beliefs private - in this sense, her inscrutable nature is a product of that, too. Whereas with Cameron, I don't sense his inscrutable nature is deliberate. It's the product of modern British politics, where all parties are vying for the centre-ground, in a political system of FPTP, which is more suited to clear ideological dividing lines. When everyone is trying to grab at the centre, and it's hard to traditionally pigeon-hole yourself to the 'right' or to the 'left' politicians, to many start to look a bit samey.
On an instinct for power, well Merkel's been dominating politics for a decade in Germany, and her CDU could still be the largest party in 2017. I really think that German politics will be a huge loss without her, and the country has no obvious figure to step into her shoes when she goes. This is the first election Cameron has won, and although like Germany we have no obvious political leaders in this country, I don't think Cameron will be a huge loss for Britain, in the same way Merkel will be for Germany.
"In Wales, Labour have lost a quarter of its vote share in under 25 years (and 40% of its vote share since 1966). So far it has not significantly affected its seat count, though it is drifting down..." The voters in Wales have the pleasure of a Labour Govt, running the NHS and education. Both areas performing worse than England. Luckily for the UK Plaid are unlikely to duplicate the SNP. But the Conservatives might eat into Labour's vote at the GE. The 2016 Welsh Assembly elections are starting to look difficult for Labour?
Wales has been gradually shifting right since 1970. 20 years from now, the Tories could be routinely winning seats like Bridgend, Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South, Newport East.
I think I’d say Wales is gradually falling out of love with Labour. One of the consequences of this is that the Tory vote simply has to stay put for seats like Bridgend or Clwyd South to become winnable.
Wales is now at the stage of Scotland in 2003, with widespread disillusion at a failing Labour Govt and at the Assembly. In Scotland, this led to the return of Alex Salmond as party leader and the resurgence of the SNP.
I don’t think we know what will happen in Wales yet.
Labour must lose power at some point, but there is no credible party of Government to replace them. They should really lose power next year, as they are tired and bereft of ideas (other than squealing that Barnett is unfair). They have failed in both health and education, and have a worse record in alleviating poverty than Tory England.
I think they share an ability to sit above the political landscape and turn on a six-pence when required by the realities of power. When Merkel first became Chancellor she stood on a fairly radical liberal economic platform with a finance spokesperson advocating the introduction of a flat tax. Then when the expected victory turned into a virtual dead-heat she was able to force Schroeder out of office against his will while jettisoning most of her platform in order to form a grand coalition. They're both fairly inscrutable but, I believe, do have a sense of what they want to achieve.
Perhaps what they most have in common is an instinct for power.
I would question Cameron sitting above the political landscape - I think the last political leader in this country to really do that effectively, was Blair circa 1997-1999.
In the light of Blair's 'forces of conservatism' speech in 1999 I find that hard to swallow. Blair was a partisan maniac.
"Look at this Party's greatest achievement. The forces of conservatism, and the force of the Conservative Party, pulled every trick in the book - voting 51 times, yes 51 times, against the creation of the NHS. One leading Tory, Mr Henry Willink, said at the time that the NHS "will destroy so much in this country that we value", when we knew human potential can never be realised when whether you are well or ill depends on wealth not need.
The forces of conservatism allied to racism are why one of the heroes of the 20th Century, Martin Luther King, is dead.
It's why another, Nelson Mandela, spent the best years of his life in a cell the size of a bed.
And though the fact that Mandela is alive, free and became President, is a sign of the progress we have made: the fact that Stephen Lawrence is dead, for no other reason than he was born black, is a sign of how far we still have to go.
And they still keep opposing progress and justice."
I think they share an ability to sit above the political landscape and turn on a six-pence when required by the realities of power. When Merkel first became Chancellor she stood on a fairly radical liberal economic platform with a finance spokesperson advocating the introduction of a flat tax. Then when the expected victory turned into a virtual dead-heat she was able to force Schroeder out of office against his will while jettisoning most of her platform in order to form a grand coalition. They're both fairly inscrutable but, I believe, do have a sense of what they want to achieve.
Perhaps what they most have in common is an instinct for power.
I would question Cameron sitting above the political landscape - I think the last political leader in this country to really do that effectively, was Blair circa 1997-1999. One area where Merkel and Cameron are similar, as you say is that they are both fairly inscrutable. But on Merkel's part, I get the sense that this is deliberate. German politics is often about the art of negotiation and flexibility - showing your hand too soon is not advisable. On top of that, Merkel grew up in communist East Germany, where she would have been used to keeping her political beliefs private - in this sense, her inscrutable nature is a product of that, too. Whereas with Cameron, I don't sense his inscrutable nature is deliberate. It's the product of modern British politics, where all parties are vying for the centre-ground, in a political system of FPTP, which is more suited to clear ideological dividing lines. When everyone is trying to grab at the centre, and it's hard to traditionally pigeon-hole yourself to the 'right' or to the 'left' politicians, to many start to look a bit samey.
On an instinct for power, well Merkel's been dominating politics for a decade in Germany, and her CDU could still be the largest party in 2017. I really think that German politics will be a huge loss without her, and the country has no obvious figure to step into her shoes when she goes. This is the first election Cameron has won, and although like Germany we have no obvious political leaders in this country, I don't think Cameron will be a huge loss for Britain, in the same way Merkel will be for Germany.
I agree with much of what you say, but I have to add that this not the first election Cameron has won, it is simply the first he has won outright. I cannot accept the idea someone wins most seats and ends up as PM but did not 'win' just because it was not as good a win as they wanted.
The ironic thing about the value of aspiration (in regard to the South) is that it is not necessarily a 'conservative value'. The Labour movement arose, because it wanted to help improve the lives of the most poorest in our society - in many ways, that in itself is aspirational. Right now, the debate on aspiration feels so individualistic - as oppose to a message on aspiration that can apply to the whole of society. Labour, can and should provide that message on aspiration. In our society, social mobility has declined in recent decades, telling us that meritocracy as we know it is being undermined.
One thing which I think threatens the Tories' in the long-term is the potential decline of home-ownership. At the heart of conservative aspiration is home-ownership. But increasingly, for my generation owning our own home feels like a fantasy, rather than a possible reality. With a low wage, low productivity economy, rising housing costs, and it being harder to get a mortgage, potentially the expansion of the middle classes is under threat. It is why, if I were a senior Conservative housing would be one of my biggest priorities. Not just morally, but politically.
How does the Labour idea of raising up the whole of society work with high levels of immigration of people at the very bottom?
FlightPathL But if Labour win back say 70-80 Tory seats in England winning back seats in Scotland would make the difference between Labour being largest party or having a majority
I think they share an ability to sit above the political landscape and turn on a six-pence when required by the realities of power. When Merkel first became Chancellor she stood on a fairly radical liberal economic platform with a finance spokesperson advocating the introduction of a flat tax. Then when the expected victory turned into a virtual dead-heat she was able to force Schroeder out of office against his will while jettisoning most of her platform in order to form a grand coalition. They're both fairly inscrutable but, I believe, do have a sense of what they want to achieve.
Perhaps what they most have in common is an instinct for power.
I would question Cameron sitting above the political landscape - I think the last political leader in this country to really do that effectively, was Blair circa 1997-1999.
In the light of Blair's 'forces of conservatism' speech in 1999 I find that hard to swallow. Blair was a partisan maniac.
"Look at this Party's greatest achievement. The forces of conservatism, and the force of the Conservative Party, pulled every trick in the book - voting 51 times, yes 51 times, against the creation of the NHS. One leading Tory, Mr Henry Willink, said at the time that the NHS "will destroy so much in this country that we value", when we knew human potential can never be realised when whether you are well or ill depends on wealth not need.
The forces of conservatism allied to racism are why one of the heroes of the 20th Century, Martin Luther King, is dead.
It's why another, Nelson Mandela, spent the best years of his life in a cell the size of a bed.
And though the fact that Mandela is alive, free and became President, is a sign of the progress we have made: the fact that Stephen Lawrence is dead, for no other reason than he was born black, is a sign of how far we still have to go.
And they still keep opposing progress and justice."
"In Wales, Labour have lost a quarter of its vote share in under 25 years (and 40% of its vote share since 1966). So far it has not significantly affected its seat count, though it is drifting down..." The voters in Wales have the pleasure of a Labour Govt, running the NHS and education. Both areas performing worse than England. Luckily for the UK Plaid are unlikely to duplicate the SNP. But the Conservatives might eat into Labour's vote at the GE. The 2016 Welsh Assembly elections are starting to look difficult for Labour?
Wales has been gradually shifting right since 1970. 20 years from now, the Tories could be routinely winning seats like Bridgend, Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South, Newport East.
I think I’d say Wales is gradually falling out of love with Labour. One of the consequences of this is that the Tory vote simply has to stay put for seats like Bridgend or Clwyd South to become winnable.
Wales is now at the stage of Scotland in 2003, with widespread disillusion at a failing Labour Govt and at the Assembly. In Scotland, this led to the return of Alex Salmond as party leader and the resurgence of the SNP.
I don’t think we know what will happen in Wales yet.
Labour must lose power at some point, but there is no credible party of Government to replace them. They should really lose power next year, as they are tired and bereft of ideas (other than squealing that Barnett is unfair). They have failed in both health and education, and have a worse record in alleviating poverty than Tory England.
The poor performance of the Labour run Welsh Assembly, either perception of reality, gave Cameron a great amount of cover especially around the NHS. It made Labour really uncomfortable pointing out that the Welsh NHS was poorly run.
Edit: Also, if i recall my history correctly, all the parties had signed up to the principle of health care free at the point of use, the main bone of contention was that the Conservatives wanted local health services administered (and funded?) by municipalities, not national run ones.
Ironically of course, under Blair's reforms what we got was in fact hundreds of locally based autonomous health Trusts.
FlightPathL But if Labour win back say 70-80 Tory seats in England winning back seats in Scotland would make the difference between Labour being largest party or having a majority
Of course, but they have to be pro English to do that.
In the light of Blair's 'forces of conservatism' speech in 1999 I find that hard to swallow. Blair was a partisan maniac.
"Look at this Party's greatest achievement. The forces of conservatism, and the force of the Conservative Party, pulled every trick in the book - voting 51 times, yes 51 times, against the creation of the NHS. One leading Tory, Mr Henry Willink, said at the time that the NHS "will destroy so much in this country that we value", when we knew human potential can never be realised when whether you are well or ill depends on wealth not need.
The forces of conservatism allied to racism are why one of the heroes of the 20th Century, Martin Luther King, is dead.
It's why another, Nelson Mandela, spent the best years of his life in a cell the size of a bed.
And though the fact that Mandela is alive, free and became President, is a sign of the progress we have made: the fact that Stephen Lawrence is dead, for no other reason than he was born black, is a sign of how far we still have to go.
And they still keep opposing progress and justice."
I was thinking of Blair in terms of electoral appeal - circa 1997-1999, he had almost North-Korean style personal ratings, and was able to bring together a large coalition of voters from Scotland, Wales, the North East, South of England, London and the Midlands that no other political leader has since replicated. And despite that speech, Blair had many admirers across the political spectrum - in Paddy Ashdown (LD leader at the time), those in the Labour party (at that time) and of course, one George Osborne....
How does the Labour idea of raising up the whole of society work with high levels of immigration of people at the very bottom?
I was thinking of Labour values historically. In the rest of my post I made clear that Labour in the last decade had failed to create a better life for those most vulnerable in society.
"In Wales, Labour have lost a quarter of its vote share in under 25 years (and 40% of its vote share since 1966). So far it has not significantly affected its seat count, though it is drifting down..." The voters in Wales have the pleasure of a Labour Govt, running the NHS and education. Both areas performing worse than England. Luckily for the UK Plaid are unlikely to duplicate the SNP. But the Conservatives might eat into Labour's vote at the GE. The 2016 Welsh Assembly elections are starting to look difficult for Labour?
Wales has been gradually shifting right since 1970. 20 years from now, the Tories could be routinely winning seats like Bridgend, Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South, Newport East.
I think I’d say Wales is gradually falling out of love with Labour. One of the consequences of this is that the Tory vote simply has to stay put for seats like Bridgend or Clwyd South to become winnable.
Wales is now at the stage of Scotland in 2003, with widespread disillusion at a failing Labour Govt and at the Assembly. In Scotland, this led to the return of Alex Salmond as party leader and the resurgence of the SNP.
I don’t think we know what will happen in Wales yet.
Labour must lose power at some point, but there is no credible party of Government to replace them. They should really lose power next year, as they are tired and bereft of ideas (other than squealing that Barnett is unfair). They have failed in both health and education, and have a worse record in alleviating poverty than Tory England.
The poor performance of the Labour run Welsh Assembly, either perception of reality, gave Cameron a great amount of cover especially around the NHS. It made Labour really uncomfortable pointing out that the Welsh NHS was poorly run.
Perhaps that program about the collapse of Scottish Labour should be compulsory viewing in Wales. So many of the same mistakes being repeated.
The ironic thing about the value of aspiration (in regard to the South) is that it is not necessarily a 'conservative value'. The Labour movement arose, because it wanted to help improve the lives of the most poorest in our society - in many ways, that in itsel.
The decline in home ownership is indeed a big threat to the Tories.
True. There is a complete absence of desire to tackle it. Unclear why they do not build lots of private skyscrapers in London for example.
The English don't want to live in high-density skyscrapers in London. They want to buy decent-sized family detached homes with gardens. An Englishman's home is his castle: it's embedded deep within our culture psych.
We were good at building these in the late Victorian era, the 1930s, the 1950s and up until the early 1980s.
The Conservatives still won elections. Why we can't do so now is a mystery to me.
As an Englishman, I'd much rather live in a high rise in the centre of town!
Seriously: 26 year old singles want to live in high rise apartments, and 35 year olds with two small kids want to live in a house with a garden.
And if there is no demand people will not buy them. Let people vote with their wallets.
Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc.
Mum won Redbridge in Bloom for her front garden last year
Congratulations to her!
My Asian colleagues are often puzzled and amused at my enthusiasm for gardening. They have spent generations trying to get away from manual labour and geting their hands dirty. Why on earth would anyone do that for fun? And camping is beyond the pale too!
I may be well qualified to comment on this, as a quick look at my website will confirm. www.roses.co.uk.
One of the increasing demographics in our customer Base is the aisan home owner. There are many who are keen gardeners.
CasinoRoyale Quebec was separate from the rest of Canada even after Scotland joined the union, Quebec has historic links to France, often against England, Scotland has the Auld Alliance, Scots have Gaelic, Quebec has French although more speak it, as a result of its various referenda Quebec now has more self-governing powers than other Canadian provinces and Scotland is heading for the same, Scotland has its separate laws and flag, Quebec has its separate laws and flag. Quebec's nationalist party was the second party in the Canadian Parliament in 1993, the SNP is now the third party at Westminster. As for economics Quebec has a gdp per capita of $43,000, Scotland $45,000, Scotland a gdp of $245 billion, Quebec $345 billion
YBardd Plaid have no Salmond or Sturgeon and Wales shows little desire for independence and Wales was united with England centuries before Scotland joined the union. Wales has voted Labour at every election since 1918 apart from the 2009 Euros
CasinoRoyale Quebec was separate from the rest of Canada even after Scotland joined the union, Quebec has historic links to France, often against England, Scotland has the Auld Alliance, Scots have Gaelic, Quebec has French although more speak it, as a result of its various referenda Quebec now has more self-governing powers than other Canadian provinces and Scotland is heading for the same, Scotland has its separate laws and flag, Quebec has its separate laws and flag. Quebec's nationalist party was the second party in the Canadian Parliament in 1993, the SNP is now the third party at Westminster.
Quebec is nothing like the rest of Canada, whereas Scotland is actually not very different from Wales or England or N. Ireland or the Republic of Ireland, for that matter.
The French language laws make Quebec visibly completely different to Anglophone Canada.
When I lived in Quebec, I was struck by how common monoglot French speakers are, even in Montreal which is the most Anglicised part of Quebec.
In fact, It is astonishing that Canada has survived intact. Completely astonishing. So, I suspect the UK will survive.
Great article as always Antifrank. I made some comments on the comparisons / differences between 1987 and 2015 - v. similar results in suburban / rural seats with the obvious exception of Scotland and places where the Tories can't reach in urban England that were in their column in 1987 - Wolverhampton SW / NE, Bristol W, Leeds NE / NW, Bury South, Sheffield Hallam, Tynemouth etc. True there are seats like Carlisle and Crewe & Nantwich that weren't Tory even in 1987.
The ironic thing about the value of aspiration (in regard to the South) is that it is not necessarily a 'conservative value'. The Labour movement arose, because it wanted to help improve the lives of the most poorest in our society - in many ways, that in itsel.
The decline in home ownership is indeed a big threat to the Tories.
True. There is a complete absence of desire to tackle it. Unclear why they do not build lots of private skyscrapers in London for example.
The English don't want to live in high-density skyscrapers in London. They want to buy decent-sized family detached homes with gardens. An Englishman's home is his castle: it's embedded deep within our culture psych.
We were good at building these in the late Victorian era, the 1930s, the 1950s and up until the early 1980s.
The Conservatives still won elections. Why we can't do so now is a mystery to me.
As an Englishman, I'd much rather live in a high rise in the centre of town!
Seriously: 26 year old singles want to live in high rise apartments, and 35 year olds with two small kids want to live in a house with a garden.
And if there is no demand people will not buy them. Let people vote with their wallets.
Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc.
Mum won Redbridge in Bloom for her front garden last year
Congratulations to her!
My Asian colleagues are often puzzled and amused at my enthusiasm for gardening. They have spent generations trying to get away from manual labour and geting their hands dirty. Why on earth would anyone do that for fun? And camping is beyond the pale too!
I may be well qualified to comment on this, as a quick look at my website will confirm. www.roses.co.uk.
One of the increasing demographics in our customer Base is the aisan home owner. There are many who are keen gardeners.
I'm happy to fill up all rose beds!
We need to talk! We are in a black spot black spot. Need some recommendations for some disease resistant gems....
>The land maybe designated but it does not follow that it will be developed anytime soon.
>A large (500+home) scheme will typically take a minimum of 3 years to be completed from the initial development discussions-often a lot longer
Once you have the land, 2-4 years for planning then 5-10 years to build and sell it if it is a normal site, unless you are in a metro area. Potentially less if segmented for different developers.
It will have taken from nothing to a decade to obtain the site.
Another rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic as far as Greece is concerned today. Lets wait for the oh so inevitable soak the rich tax revenues fall short of that predicted. It beggars belief after all the experience of expected revenues falling short under tax the rich exercises that governments never learn from past experience and always fail to make adjustments for changes in behaviour (tax avoidance) when examining the likely impact of extra tax revenues.....but heck that would be an inconvenient fact that such governments on the left never wish to recognise. It would just be so much better for Greece if they adopted the following solution:
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
Relatively nice flats in London all seem to have sky high service charges.
I would be tempted by a flat with floor to ceiling windows, however, the only ones which meet that criteria are rediculous sums of money.
YBardd Plaid have no Salmond or Sturgeon and Wales shows little desire for independence and Wales was united with England centuries before Scotland joined the union. Wales has voted Labour at every election since 1918 apart from the 2009 Euros
I think my point is that Labour will eventually lose power in 2016, or in 2021, or whenever.
It is unsustainable to have a failing Government in power indefinitely. Eventually, opposition will coalesce around some credible grouping.
Who Labour will lose power to is the interesting question.
I suspect Labour will sustain losses on 2016 & it will be their worst election since the creation of the Assembly. But, I expect they will struggle on as a minority Government.
Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc.
Mum won Redbridge in Bloom for her front garden last year
The British upper-middle-class have many disadvantages (which I will expound at length if asked...or pissed...:-)) but their (to me) incomprehensible addiction to gardening is their saving grace: I have seen some of their gardens that would credit Heaven itself
Just 100 days now to go to the great turning point on the (global) Economic Confidence Model (ECM) of 2015.75 (1st October). 20th April 2015 to a lot of people on here may not seem a significant date, but it was when long dated US and German sovereign debt (10 years or greater) topped out in price and bottomed out in yield. We are now seeing a 'flight to quality' into the short end of the bond market that should top out at the end of September, with the long end forming a bottom, albeit at a higher yield than the 20th April low in yields, as an ever so significant bullish divergence in yields. The 6 week jolt higher from 20th April into early June (10 year German bund went from 0.07% to just over 1% in the period which may not sound like much but was a 10% sell off in price) is just a pre-cursor to the carnage that we can expect once we get in October, and the 34 year cycle of ever lower rates is at an end. Crash the stockmarket and you have a recession, crash the bond market (3-3.5 times larger) and you have a .........I'll leave you to fill that one in!
And now 2-1 up - well done Lucy Bronze! Been a very enjoyable world cup so far. England don't sit easily on leads if the Columbia and Mexico games are anything to go by!
The ironic thing about the value of aspiration (in regard to the South) is that it is not necessarily a 'conservative value'. The Labour movement arose, because it wanted to help improve the lives of the most poorest in our society - in many ways, that in itsel.
The decline in home ownership is indeed a big threat to the Tories.
True. There is a complete absence of desire to tackle it. Unclear why they do not build lots of private skyscrapers in London for example.
The English don't want to live in high-density skyscrapers in London. They want to buy decent-sized family detached homes with gardens. An Englishman's home is his castle: it's embedded deep within our culture psych.
We were good at building these in the late Victorian era, the 1930s, the 1950s and up until the early 1980s.
The Conservatives still won elections. Why we can't do so now is a mystery to me.
As an Englishman, I'd much rather live in a high rise in the centre of town!
Seriously: 26 year old singles want to live in high rise apartments, and 35 year olds with two small kids want to live in a house with a garden.
And if there is no demand people will not buy them. Let people vote with their wallets.
Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc.
Mum won Redbridge in Bloom for her front garden last year
Congratulations to her!
My Asian colleagues are often puzzled and amused at my enthusiasm for gardening. They have spent generations trying to get away from manual labour and geting their hands dirty. Why on earth would anyone do that for fun? And camping is beyond the pale too!
I may be well qualified to comment on this, as a quick look at my website will confirm. www.roses.co.uk.
One of the increasing demographics in our customer Base is the aisan home owner. There are many who are keen gardeners.
I'm happy to fill up all rose beds!
We need to talk! We are in a black spot black spot. Need some recommendations for some disease resistant gems....
Hi Mark
I have sent my email address to you on a vanilla message. Feel free to contact me. I stopped using fungicides in our breeding program in1995, so I have some options for blackspot resistant varieties.
YBardd The language difference is the main one, if more Scots spoke Gaelic outside of the rural highlands and western isles the connection would be more exact, true
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
Relatively nice flats in London all seem to have sky high service charges.
I would be tempted by a flat with floor to ceiling windows, however, the only ones which meet that criteria are rediculous sums of money.
Yes, that's the trouble with London. Even basic, decent one-bedroom flats cost ridiculous sums. More, and more people can't afford to live in London and I suspect as more move out the prices will begin to rise in other areas as a result. It's a no-win situation.
The ironic thing about the value of aspiration (in regard to the South) is that it is not necessarily a 'conservative value'. The Labour movement arose, because it wanted to help improve the lives of the most poorest in our society - in many ways, that in itsel.
The decline in home ownership is indeed a big threat to the Tories.
True. There is a complete absence of desire to tackle it. Unclear why they do not build lots of private skyscrapers in London for example.
The English don't want to live in high-density skyscrapers in London. They want to buy decent-sized family detached homes with gardens. An Englishman's home is his castle: it's embedded deep within our culture psych.
We were good at building these in the late Victorian era, the 1930s, the 1950s and up until the early 1980s.
The Conservatives still won elections. Why we can't do so now is a mystery to me.
As an Englishman, I'd much rather live in a high rise in the centre of town!
Seriously: 26 year old singles want to live in high rise apartments, and 35 year olds with two small kids want to live in a house with a garden.
And if there is no demand people will not buy them. Let people vote with their wallets.
Asian families in Leicester like a bit of frontage etc.
Mum won Redbridge in Bloom for her front garden last year
Congratulations to her!
My Asian colleagues are often puzzled and amused at my enthusiasm for gardening. They have spent generations trying to get away from manual labour and geting their hands dirty. Why on earth would anyone do that for fun? And camping is beyond the pale too!
I may be well qualified to comment on this, as a quick look at my website will confirm. www.roses.co.uk.
One of the increasing demographics in our customer Base is the aisan home owner. There are many who are keen gardeners.
I'm happy to fill up all rose beds!
We need to talk! We are in a black spot black spot. Need some recommendations for some disease resistant gems....
Hi Mark
I have sent my email address to you on a vanilla message. Feel free to contact me. I stopped using fungicides in our breeding program in1995, so I have some options for blackspot resistant varieties.
YBardd The problem is opposition to Labour in Wales alternates between the Tories and Plaid so even if Labour lose their majority, as they did in 1999 and 2007, no other party is likely to replace them and lead the Welsh government
Interesting comments on Clwyd South - I agree that its another seat where Labour are vulnerable long term. The part which sticks out to the east close to Whitchurch in Shropshire is only around 15 miles away from where my parents live, and never looks that prosperous whenever I've driven through it on the way to / from Llangollen. There has always been enough old heavy industry legacy to keep it in the Labour column. IIRC Chirk leans towards Labour and Llangollen is mixed, so the pontcysyllte aqueduct should remain in Labour hands for the immediate future...one to watch long term though.
I noted the significant cut in IDS' majority in Chingford to just over 8,000 - very noticeable the effect from Labour voters in inner London moving further outwards into places like Enfield North and Ilford North as well as Chingford. Tory majorities in Hornchurch and Romford were cut too so outer NE London becoming less favourable to the Tories over time, although UKIP came through to 2nd just about in those 2 seats.
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
Relatively nice flats in London all seem to have sky high service charges.
I would be tempted by a flat with floor to ceiling windows, however, the only ones which meet that criteria are rediculous sums of money.
Yes, that's the trouble with London. Even basic, decent one-bedroom flats cost ridiculous sums. More, and more people can't afford to live in London and I suspect as more move out the prices will begin to rise in other areas as a result. It's a no-win situation.
Not once we get beyond 2015.75 and interest rates (and mortgage rates) start RISING. Take note of the following 78 year cycle:
Norway lose despite being the better side for about 60% of the match.
Absolutely. Looking forward to the quarter final against Canada, but England will have to be much better to stand any chance. Still, at least they've won a knock out game in the world cup now.
YBardd The language difference is the main one, if more Scots spoke Gaelic outside of the rural highlands and western isles the connection would be more exact, true
The other major difference is boundaries.
The boundary between Scotland and England has been pretty much fixed for 100s of years.
Quebec’s boundaries are much less certain. The Quebec that entered the Canadian Federation was geographically confined to the upper St Lawrence River. It received the vast territory of Nouveau Quebec (Prince Rupert’s Land) to govern on behalf of the Federation.
It was never really clear that a Quebec that became independent from the rest of Canada would or could take with it the resources-rich Nouveau Quebec.
Norway lose despite being the better side for about 60% of the match.
Absolutely. Looking forward to the quarter final against Canada, but England will have to be much better to stand any chance. Still, at least they've won a knock out game in the world cup now.
Yes based on the way both teams played their last match it's heading for something like 4-0 to Canada.
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
Relatively nice flats in London all seem to have sky high service charges.
I would be tempted by a flat with floor to ceiling windows, however, the only ones which meet that criteria are rediculous sums of money.
Yes, that's the trouble with London. Even basic, decent one-bedroom flats cost ridiculous sums. More, and more people can't afford to live in London and I suspect as more move out the prices will begin to rise in other areas as a result. It's a no-win situation.
Before long there won't be any lower-middle class people living in London. I guess the only ones living there at the moment are people who moved in more than 30 years ago.
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
I'd argue that's because we mainly see two kinds of high-rise in Britain - the rough places with dodgy neighbours and the luxury blocks you can't afford. If we built more high-rise blocks with good standards and maintenance that were cheap - and they would be, because land rent in cities is such a major part of the issue - people would flock to them. I grew up here:
The block is in one of the more prosperous parts of Copenhagen. It had and I expect still has 24*7 porterage, two lifts, excellent upkeep, great view, shops and a good train service on one side, a village on the other, a playground underneath, two balconies per flat, and it STILL only costs £225,000 for a family flat, with 9 floors of about 15 flats - that's about 350 people living there. Plonk it anywhere in London at that price and the flats would sell overnight. Instead, we try to find space for 135 separate houses, and wonder why prices are high.
Norway lose despite being the better side for about 60% of the match.
Absolutely. Looking forward to the quarter final against Canada, but England will have to be much better to stand any chance. Still, at least they've won a knock out game in the world cup now.
Yes based on the way both teams played their last match it's heading for something like 4-0 to Canada.
Germany Canada final if you ask me now. I think Germany will spoil the party, and make it both men's and women's world cups in their hands - lets see.
Thanks Sunil for alerting me to this - didn't know a thing about it until today!
You're welcome Hunchman - I only knew of it because of antifrank's original question on the last thread!
Cheers. What railway lines have you got left on your to do list now in the British Isles? I've always wanted to do that crazy line that goes all over the place from Dingwall to Wick if I get the time, as well as the line over the top at Corrour Halt.
Casino I think 70-80 gains from the Tories and 20 gains from the SNP is not impossible (that would still leave the SNP with a clear majority of Scottish seats)
Name even 10 seats that Labour can conceivably win from the SNP in 2020.
There aren't half a dozen, let alone 20.
I guess you may have missed it. But Labour are completely and utterly finished in Scotland.
I noted the significant cut in IDS' majority in Chingford to just over 8,000 - very noticeable the effect from Labour voters in inner London moving further outwards into places like Enfield North and Ilford North as well as Chingford. Tory majorities in Hornchurch and Romford were cut too so outer NE London becoming less favourable to the Tories over time, although UKIP came through to 2nd just about in those 2 seats.
More likely the result of moving safe Tory Wanstead over to the Leyton and Wanstead seat... I think(?)
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
I'd argue that's because we mainly see two kinds of high-rise in Britain - the rough places with dodgy neighbours and the luxury blocks you can't afford. If we built more high-rise blocks with good standards and maintenance that were cheap - and they would be, because land rent in cities is such a major part of the issue - people would flock to them. I grew up here:
The block is in one of the more prosperous parts of Copenhagen. It had and I expect still has 24*7 porterage, two lifts, excellent upkeep, great view, shops and a good train service on one side, a village on the other, a playground underneath, two balconies per flat, and it STILL only costs £225,000 for a family flat, with 9 floors of about 15 flats - that's about 350 people living there. Plonk it anywhere in London at that price and the flats would sell overnight. Instead, we try to find space for 135 separate houses, and wonder why prices are high.
Thanks Nick - very interesting. I think that's one of the legacies of 1960's high build in the UK, that the perception of high rise in the UK became synonymous with low quality housing, and hence until recently, a relative aversion to building such places. Many countries on the continent don't have that same legacy and there are many parts where high urban density housing can go hand in hand with very desirable neighbourhoods. Haven't been outside the centre in Copenhagen, how is Norrebro going on these days - has it settled down somewhat since the 2007 riots?
One imponderable for the next five years is UKIP's performance. Will they soar like a rocket in the wake of the EU referendum? Even if Out is decisively defeated, deft handling could give them a big lift in the polls. But if they continue with internecine warfare as at present, they will fizzle. If they surge, who will they gain votes from and where? If they crater, who will pick up their flotsam?
Anyone expecting gains from UKIP have a very basic problem that UKIP cannot address or get over.
The SNP had an additional step up in order to succeed - a voting system which favoured them. Even when they were not doing well in Scotland they had 25% of the Holyrood seats. Without the AMS parliament they would never have been able to make the gains they have. And that STILL took nearly least a decade to achieve.
Without a different voting system, UKIP cannot expect any significant seat base at Westminster. They need, desperately, an AMS English parliament and there is no likelihood of that.
Thanks Sunil for alerting me to this - didn't know a thing about it until today!
You're welcome Hunchman - I only knew of it because of antifrank's original question on the last thread!
Cheers. What railway lines have you got left on your to do list now in the British Isles? I've always wanted to do that crazy line that goes all over the place from Dingwall to Wick if I get the time, as well as the line over the top at Corrour Halt.
Actually - quite a bit left to do!
Since around 2008, I've done visited all stations on the London Oystercard Map, and all National Rail railways within about 50 miles of central London.
Between 2010 and 2012. interview visits enabled me to do Leuchars in Scotland via the East Coast and Edinburgh, Alderley Edge in Cheshire via the West Coast Line and Crewe, Bristol via the Great Western and Bath, and both Leicester and Sheffield on the Midland Main Line.
Since I started working in the Midlands in late 2013, I've done all routes on the West Midlands Day Ranger map (so basically routes out of Birmingham). Also this year did Nuneaton to Leicester, Tamworth to Derby, Birmingham to Cheltenham non-stop, and most recently Swindon to Cheltenham via Stroud.
Also did Eurostar from St Pancras to Brussels!
Heritage railways I've done include Epping Ongar (I was a volunteer in 2012 and 2013!), Romney, Hythe & Dymchurch, Severn Valley, Southend Pier, and Woburn Safari Park (it's on the Baker Atlas!).
Delighted that the European referendum won't be held until at least June 2016 now. As a committed BOO voter, I think the No campaign will do better the further the vote is towards 2017 once the impact of the sovereign debt crisis has been well and truly felt. In another way though, I rather think the referendum will be a rather moot point though - once the Eurozone starts falling apart, of which Greece is just the start once we get past 2015.75, the whole wretched project will be at an end, irrespective of what we decide to do. The point remains though, the later its held the better the prospects for the Out campaign, I wouldn't want to be in the In campaign having to defend the complete mess that the Euro will be by the time of the vote.
Interesting documentary on BBC Scotland tonight about the fall of Labour. Well worth catching up with on the iplayer for those who might be thinking of risking their hard earned north of the border once again.
It was positively startling how many leaders Scottish Labour has got through since Dewar died. I lived through it but some, such as Gray, very rapidly slip from the memory.
It is quite clear that there will be an autonomous Scottish labour party. Whether this will be of any interest to the Scottish people was rather less so.
And if Scottish Labour pick Kezia Dugdale over Ken Macintosh then the only reasonable conclusion is that they have a death wish.
Remarkable that Gray so easily slips from memory.
He is the second longest lasting Scottish Labour leader since Devolution!
I noted the significant cut in IDS' majority in Chingford to just over 8,000 - very noticeable the effect from Labour voters in inner London moving further outwards into places like Enfield North and Ilford North as well as Chingford. Tory majorities in Hornchurch and Romford were cut too so outer NE London becoming less favourable to the Tories over time, although UKIP came through to 2nd just about in those 2 seats.
More likely the result of moving safe Tory Wanstead over to the Leyton and Wanstead seat... I think(?)
Am going off unchanged boundaries between 2010 and 2015. Leyton and Walthamstow are 2 perfectly safe Labour seats.
I noted the significant cut in IDS' majority in Chingford to just over 8,000 - very noticeable the effect from Labour voters in inner London moving further outwards into places like Enfield North and Ilford North as well as Chingford. Tory majorities in Hornchurch and Romford were cut too so outer NE London becoming less favourable to the Tories over time, although UKIP came through to 2nd just about in those 2 seats.
More likely the result of moving safe Tory Wanstead over to the Leyton and Wanstead seat... I think(?)
Wanstead has never been part of Chingford and Woodford Green!
Interesting documentary on BBC Scotland tonight about the fall of Labour. Well worth catching up with on the iplayer for those who might be thinking of risking their hard earned north of the border once again.
It was positively startling how many leaders Scottish Labour has got through since Dewar died. I lived through it but some, such as Gray, very rapidly slip from the memory.
It is quite clear that there will be an autonomous Scottish labour party. Whether this will be of any interest to the Scottish people was rather less so.
And if Scottish Labour pick Kezia Dugdale over Ken Macintosh then the only reasonable conclusion is that they have a death wish.
Remarkable that Gray so easily slips from memory.
He is the second longest lasting Scottish Labour leader since Devolution!
Scotland is going independent, the sovereign debt crisis will be the final nail in the coffin of the union, which the SNP will exploit very well thankyou very much given the political skill of Salmond and Sturgeon. It'll be interesting what emerges on the centre left and equally the centre right in an independent Scotland. Dair is right, a Labour revival in Scotland whilst still part of the UK is a complete non-starter. Does anyone really see all those new converts to the SNP suddenly saying 'whoops, I was wrong in 2015, I'm going straight back to my old ways?!!' Sorry, that just isn't going to happen, however much Labourites in the UK wish it was the case.
Dair As I pointed out earlier the BQ went from 49% of the vote in 1993 to 37% in 1997, a 12% drop, if the SNP suffered a similar 12% drop and that 12% went to Labour, Labour would win over 20 seats
Thanks Sunil for alerting me to this - didn't know a thing about it until today!
You're welcome Hunchman - I only knew of it because of antifrank's original question on the last thread!
Cheers. What railway lines have you got left on your to do list now in the British Isles? I've always wanted to do that crazy line that goes all over the place from Dingwall to Wick if I get the time, as well as the line over the top at Corrour Halt.
Actually - quite a bit left to do!
Since around 2008, I've done visited all stations on the London Oystercard Map, and all National Rail railways within about 50 miles of central London.
Between 2010 and 2012. interview visits enabled me to do Leuchars in Scotland via the East Coast and Edinburgh, Alderley Edge in Cheshire via the West Coast Line and Crewe, Bristol via the Great Western and Bath, and both Leicester and Sheffield on the Midland Main Line.
Since I started working in the Midlands in late 2013, I've done all routes on the West Midlands Day Ranger map (so basically routes out of Birmingham). Also this year did Nuneaton to Leicester, Tamworth to Derby, Birmingham to Cheltenham non-stop, and most recently Swindon to Cheltenham via Stroud.
Also did Eurostar from St Pancras to Brussels!
Heritage railways I've done include Epping Ongar (I was a volunteer in 2012 and 2013!), Romney, Hythe & Dymchurch, Severn Valley, Southend Pier, and Woburn Safari Park (it's on the Baker Atlas!).
Thanks Sunil for alerting me to this - didn't know a thing about it until today!
You're welcome Hunchman - I only knew of it because of antifrank's original question on the last thread!
Cheers. What railway lines have you got left on your to do list now in the British Isles? I've always wanted to do that crazy line that goes all over the place from Dingwall to Wick if I get the time, as well as the line over the top at Corrour Halt.
Actually - quite a bit left to do!
Since around 2008, I've done visited all stations on the London Oystercard Map, and all National Rail railways within about 50 miles of central London.
Between 2010 and 2012. interview visits enabled me to do Leuchars in Scotland via the East Coast and Edinburgh, Alderley Edge in Cheshire via the West Coast Line and Crewe, Bristol via the Great Western and Bath, and both Leicester and Sheffield on the Midland Main Line.
Since I started working in the Midlands in late 2013, I've done all routes on the West Midlands Day Ranger map (so basically routes out of Birmingham). Also this year did Nuneaton to Leicester, Tamworth to Derby, Birmingham to Cheltenham non-stop, and most recently Swindon to Cheltenham via Stroud.
Also did Eurostar from St Pancras to Brussels!
Heritage railways I've done include Epping Ongar (I was a volunteer in 2012 and 2013!), Romney, Hythe & Dymchurch, Severn Valley, Southend Pier, and Woburn Safari Park (it's on the Baker Atlas!).
Labour would win back Renfrewshire E, Edinburgh N and Leith, E Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire S, Aberdeen S, Edinburgh SW, Dumfries and Galloway, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Ochil and S Perthshire, Paisley and Renfrewshire N, Lanark and Hamilton E, Dunfermline and Fife West, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Edinburgh East, Glasgow Central, Airdrie and Shotts, Stirling, Midlothian, Linlithgow and Falkirk E, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Coatbridge, Chryston and Belshill and Glasgow NW http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/united_kingdom/targets/lab
Norway lose despite being the better side for about 60% of the match.
Absolutely. Looking forward to the quarter final against Canada, but England will have to be much better to stand any chance. Still, at least they've won a knock out game in the world cup now.
The tournament is quite devalued by utterly bizarre qualification splits between the various continental associations.
8 UEFA qualifiers is an utter disgrace. There are 7 UEFA Countries in the worlds top 24 ranking missing from the tournament.
2 African places, 1 Asian and 1 South American slit (at least) should be given to UEFA for a 24 team tournament. And Oceania should have a play off with a UEFA team now the Aussies are in Asia.
Hunchman Given the fall in the oil price and the eurozone crisis the practicalities of independence are more difficult and there will be no rush from Scots to risk losing sterling. Labour warned an SNP vote meant a Tory government not Stugeon holding the whip hand, in 2020 the 2015 result means that argument has more force
Dair As I pointed out earlier the BQ went from 49% of the vote in 1993 to 37% in 1997, a 12% drop, if the SNP suffered a similar 12% drop and that 12% went to Labour, Labour would win over 20 seats
In 1993, the Bloc Quebecois had a single coherent opponent who were not toxic to the Quebecois electorate. The 1993 election say the utter annihilation of the Tories who went from 156 to 2 seats, the new challenger centre right failed to get 100 seats between the two of them, and the Liberals were given a Free Pass to challenge the BQ.
In fact there was no challenge on the Federal level to the Liberals until 2004 when the Tories infighting finally stabilised and the Liberals stopped getting everything their own way.
These circumstances are very different to Scotland where ALL the opposition parties look like the Tories did in Canada in 1997 and none of them are in any sort of position to challenge the SNP.
I understand that Loyalism needs its crutch to somehow dream the Union can survive. But it cannot. It is dead in the water, the SNP can call the next Referendum any time they want and nothing you do or say can stop that.
@NickPalmer That's very interesting information on Copenhagen. You have to wonder why this country hasn't gone down of route of Continental Europe, and modeled high-rises on places like that. Housing policy in this country really has been a complete disaster.
@AndyJS Yep, that's what I fear too. My family moved out of London nearly 9 years ago now. My grandparents still live there, but they bought their property (which is now absurdly worth more than 500k) in the 1960s!
@hunchman Interesting link. I'll be watching to see how the market is after 2015 to see if there are any changes!
Interesting documentary on BBC Scotland tonight about the fall of Labour. Well worth catching up with on the iplayer for those who might be thinking of risking their hard earned north of the border once again.
It was positively startling how many leaders Scottish Labour has got through since Dewar died. I lived through it but some, such as Gray, very rapidly slip from the memory.
It is quite clear that there will be an autonomous Scottish labour party. Whether this will be of any interest to the Scottish people was rather less so.
And if Scottish Labour pick Kezia Dugdale over Ken Macintosh then the only reasonable conclusion is that they have a death wish.
Remarkable that Gray so easily slips from memory.
He is the second longest lasting Scottish Labour leader since Devolution!
Labour would win back Renfrewshire E, Edinburgh N and Leith, E Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire S, Aberdeen S, Edinburgh SW, Dumfries and Galloway, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Ochil and S Perthshire, Paisley and Renfrewshire N, Lanark and Hamilton E, Dunfermline and Fife West, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Edinburgh East, Glasgow Central, Airdrie and Shotts, Stirling, Midlothian, Linlithgow and Falkirk E, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Coatbridge, Chryston and Belshill and Glasgow NW http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/united_kingdom/targets/lab
Labour are not turning round any of those majorities, eight of which are in the 10k+ category.
Dair Not actually true, Quebec Tories went from 13.5% in 1993 to 22% in 1997 and the Quebec Liberals also saw an increase in their voteshare to 36%, only just behind the BQ's 37% which was well down on the 49% they got in 1993
Dair Not actually true, Quebec Tories went from 13.5% in 1993 to 22% in 1997 and the Quebec Liberals also saw an increase in their voteshare to 36%, only just behind the BQ's 37% which was well down on the 49% they got in 1993
The Tory vote share change made no difference due to FPTP. The Liberals got a few seats with each rise in their vote share because it was high enough to start and went up enough.
There is no opposition party in Scotland in a position to do what the Liberals managed in Canada.
The SNP can only call the election if they get another absolute majority, and will only call one if they are certain they will win it, the only likely scenario in the next decade with Scotland getting more powers anyway is if the UK votes to exit the EU and Scotland votes to stay, that I grant you would likely see Scotland go, even if some SNP voters are less than passionate EU backers, but it would have been the choice of the rest of the UK to take that risk anyway
The SNP can only call the election if they get another absolute majority, and will only call one if they are certain they will win it, the only likely scenario in the next decade with Scotland getting more powers anyway is if the UK votes to exit the EU and Scotland votes to stay, that I grant you would likely see Scotland go, even if some SNP voters are less than passionate EU backers, but it would have been the choice of the rest of the UK to take that risk anyway
The SNP will have another Majority in 2016, if you doubt that, then there is something not quite right in your head.
Perhaps that's your problem, fingers in ears and eyes squeezed shut.
Dair FPTP means swings in votes can produce larger swings in seats as the SNP discovered when they won over 90% of Scottish seats on 50% of the vote, half of Scots did not vote SNP in 2015, FPTP can produce equally large swingbacks in terms of seat gains and Labour is still the SNP's main challenger in most Scottish seats
On a direct SNP-Labour swing on the scale of the decline in the BQ vote by 1997 in Quebec all the seats I mentioned would go back to Labour
In Copenhagen they don't have the cash to do London-type speculation, they are all happily paying their 51.5 per cent marginal rates, 45 per cent average rates, private pensions etc., or they have got out of Denmark already.
Dair By next year Labour will have new leaders at Westminster and Holyrood and Holyrood will have been given more powers as the Smith Commission Plans will have been passed into law meaning the SNP government will be judged on its merits, tactical voting is also more likely as Tories, for example, can vote Labour without electing a Labour PM, UKIP may also pick up a seat or 2 on the list. Even if the SNP does retain its majority it will only call another referendum in all probability if the UK votes to exit the EU and Scotland votes to stay, they will not risk losing another referendum in the near future which would kill off independence for good
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
I'd argue that's because we mainly see two kinds of high-rise in Britain - the rough places with dodgy neighbours and the luxury blocks you can't afford. If we built more high-rise blocks with good standards and maintenance that were cheap - and they would be, because land rent in cities is such a major part of the issue - people would flock to them. I grew up here:
The block is in one of the more prosperous parts of Copenhagen. It had and I expect still has 24*7 porterage, two lifts, excellent upkeep, great view, shops and a good train service on one side, a village on the other, a playground underneath, two balconies per flat, and it STILL only costs £225,000 for a family flat, with 9 floors of about 15 flats - that's about 350 people living there. Plonk it anywhere in London at that price and the flats would sell overnight. Instead, we try to find space for 135 separate houses, and wonder why prices are high.
Not to disrespect your childhood, Nick, but that is a very unattractive building.
The Danes tend to have smaller families, even for Europe. I notice it in the flats where my son lives in Copenhagen. It must mean less noise and stress.
I expect immigration may be raising the average, though.
Dair Not actually true, Quebec Tories went from 13.5% in 1993 to 22% in 1997 and the Quebec Liberals also saw an increase in their voteshare to 36%, only just behind the BQ's 37% which was well down on the 49% they got in 1993
The PQ vote dropped in 1997 due to a Gordon Brown-like factor, i.e. a French Canadian supporting the union was an alternative option. Had Cretien not been the candidate the PQ vote would in my view have held. People trusted him as one of their own to look after Quebec's interests within the union, the same way people naively trusted Brown at both Westminster and for the last time at indyref. He is now persona non grata, with Kirkcaldy having one of the largest swings against Labour after he sold the constituency a pup.
Without Brown as leader the Scottish Labour vote which was soft and voting SNP at the Scot elections would have left an election or two earlier. Now that Labour are routed and promises of Home Rule from Brown and the 3 amigos have been shown to be lies there is a hardcore of up to 60% prepared to consider indy, up from perhaps 53% at time of indyref. Whether they do actually vote is another matter; they are however prepared to consider it.
That about 7 or 8% were swayed last minute after jam tomorrow in a MSM blitz implying an apocalypse if a YES vote was carried (in tactics just like 1979) will soon be a historical fact that all sides agree. That ANOTHER 7 or 8% on top of that number who voted no and now regret it seems to be borne out by the polls.
How could Scots vote for Burnham/Kendall/Cooper over Sturgeon? Good grief, if Sturgeon led the UK Labour party they would probably have won 2015 election in a canter, judging on approval ratings. UK Labour's only chance in Scotland now is/was to get another Scottish leader a la Chretien or offer a solution so people in Scot are not ruled by the M25 bubble squad. That will not happe a recovery will not happen.
When people say they want to live in high-rises, I wonder if they mean posh, expensive ones in London or the ones more commonly referred to on the local council estate rife with crime? I'm a 21 year-old single, I'd much rather live in a house than any high-rise.
I'd argue that's because we mainly see two kinds of high-rise in Britain - the rough places with dodgy neighbours and the luxury blocks you can't afford. If we built more high-rise blocks with good standards and maintenance that were cheap - and they would be, because land rent in cities is such a major part of the issue - people would flock to them. I grew up here:
The block is in one of the more prosperous parts of Copenhagen. It had and I expect still has 24*7 porterage, two lifts, excellent upkeep, great view, shops and a good train service on one side, a village on the other, a playground underneath, two balconies per flat, and it STILL only costs £225,000 for a family flat, with 9 floors of about 15 flats - that's about 350 people living there. Plonk it anywhere in London at that price and the flats would sell overnight. Instead, we try to find space for 135 separate houses, and wonder why prices are high.
Not to disrespect your childhood, Nick, but that is a very unattractive building.
Nick is completely wrong that Brits would flock to such buildings if they were cheap with good standards and maintenance. This is a highly continental view, that reflects Nick's "3rd culture kid" upbringing.
Brits don't want to live half-way up in the sky, with noisy neighbours to the left, right, above and below. They want spacious detached homes. Their own patch of England. Their own garden. A small patio. A fence or hence around it all. Possibly with a porch. Usually with a few flowers. Very definitely all their own. That elusive "castle".
It is, in particular, the English dream. It explains why property programmes are so popular here, and why so few of the purchasers are looking for a flat as their dream property.
A very good article by Antifrank. Just a few thoughts:
1. In London, while the seats tally might suggest a moving away from the Conservatives, they will probably find comfort in the actual votes in many of these constituencies - Labour only narrowly won Ealing Central and Brentford, which they had been expected to walk; Hampstead and Kilburn was a lot of closer than many on here thought; and seats like Hendon stayed Blue.
2. A hunch, but in the future we may need to start looking at London as two blocs rather than one; south of the river, Labour made little progress against the Conservatives and there is a chance that seats like Tooting may even be turn Blue. The Labour gains from the Conservatives were north of the river. To me - living in North London - South London increasingly seems to be of a more suburban mindset then North, which may explain the difference.
3. I would agree in the Core Cities themselves, the Conservatives' prospects do not look great; but, in their suburbs, things are better for the Tories. Take Manchester - the actual City of Manchester is unlikely to return a Conservative for the foreseeable future; yet, in Greater Manchester, the Tories had their best result since 1992, picking up one seat from Labour and two from the Lib Dems.
With the LibDems being out of association with the Tories, and evidence appearing about how they had actually hold back the Tories from some of their more right-wing ideas, and a leader, Farron, who wasn't in Government, might we see a revival sooner than later?
Comments
All of my friends (widespread political views) whom have lived in London the last 5-10 years now want - without exception - to move out and buy a family home with a garden. What frustrates most people is having to pay £400k+ for a matchbox, because that's all new-build offers today.
Incidentally, the rosebed is absolutely very much alive around here.
Right, must dash. Goodnight all.
My Asian colleagues are often puzzled and amused at my enthusiasm for gardening. They have spent generations trying to get away from manual labour and geting their hands dirty. Why on earth would anyone do that for fun? And camping is beyond the pale too!
How long it takes from start to finish isnt really that important. They start and they are in the system.
Its like saying lets not trying to climb the mountain because the peak seems too far away.
I actually think land banking is a tiny problem and mainly relates to commercial sites-in particular supermarkets and fuel/car showrooms.
The vast majority of land for residential development is used quite quickly for development-the biggest reason for the delays is meeting the array of pre-planning consultation requirements and then the subsequent planning conditions prior to commencement of works.
All things which as you clearly state could and should be addressed.
"And the abolition of urban fringe policies in the national planning policy framework."
Dont know much about that-will it affect things greatly??
I understand why you're making the comparison and parallel with it, because it looks and feels similar to Scotland, but I just don't agree with it. You may turn out to be right, I rule nothing out, but not for the reasons you've cited which are just slim parallels.
Yes, the ability to block development that lies at the edge of an urban area, because it begins to move into the buffer between built up areas is reduced. The policy had facilitated the freezing of city/town boundaries.
On an instinct for power, well Merkel's been dominating politics for a decade in Germany, and her CDU could still be the largest party in 2017. I really think that German politics will be a huge loss without her, and the country has no obvious figure to step into her shoes when she goes. This is the first election Cameron has won, and although like Germany we have no obvious political leaders in this country, I don't think Cameron will be a huge loss for Britain, in the same way Merkel will be for Germany.
Wales is now at the stage of Scotland in 2003, with widespread disillusion at a failing Labour Govt and at the Assembly. In Scotland, this led to the return of Alex Salmond as party leader and the resurgence of the SNP.
I don’t think we know what will happen in Wales yet.
Labour must lose power at some point, but there is no credible party of Government to replace them. They should really lose power next year, as they are tired and bereft of ideas (other than squealing that Barnett is unfair). They have failed in both health and education, and have a worse record in alleviating poverty than Tory England.
"Look at this Party's greatest achievement. The forces of conservatism, and the force of the Conservative Party, pulled every trick in the book - voting 51 times, yes 51 times, against the creation of the NHS. One leading Tory, Mr Henry Willink, said at the time that the NHS "will destroy so much in this country that we value", when we knew human potential can never be realised when whether you are well or ill depends on wealth not need.
The forces of conservatism allied to racism are why one of the heroes of the 20th Century, Martin Luther King, is dead.
It's why another, Nelson Mandela, spent the best years of his life in a cell the size of a bed.
And though the fact that Mandela is alive, free and became President, is a sign of the progress we have made: the fact that Stephen Lawrence is dead, for no other reason than he was born black, is a sign of how far we still have to go.
And they still keep opposing progress and justice."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/460009.stm
Good night all.
Which part of the British Isles was at war with The Netherlands/Dutch Republic from 1651 to 1986?
guesses
1) Scilly isles
2) Channel Islands
3) Isle of Man
Edit: Also, if i recall my history correctly, all the parties had signed up to the principle of health care free at the point of use, the main bone of contention was that the Conservatives wanted local health services administered (and funded?) by municipalities, not national run ones.
Ironically of course, under Blair's reforms what we got was in fact hundreds of locally based autonomous health Trusts.
One of the increasing demographics in our customer Base is the aisan home owner. There are many who are keen gardeners.
I'm happy to fill up all rose beds!
I see that nobody has mentioned the elephant in the room yet - "Buy to Let".
The French language laws make Quebec visibly completely different to Anglophone Canada.
When I lived in Quebec, I was struck by how common monoglot French speakers are, even in Montreal which is the most Anglicised part of Quebec.
In fact, It is astonishing that Canada has survived intact. Completely astonishing. So, I suspect the UK will survive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pilni1T3XPA
"Your Boys took a hell of a beating!"
>A large (500+home) scheme will typically take a minimum of 3 years to be completed from the initial development discussions-often a lot longer
Once you have the land, 2-4 years for planning then 5-10 years to build and sell it if it is a normal site, unless you are in a metro area. Potentially less if segmented for different developers.
It will have taken from nothing to a decade to obtain the site.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33767
I would be tempted by a flat with floor to ceiling windows, however, the only ones which meet that criteria are rediculous sums of money.
It is unsustainable to have a failing Government in power indefinitely. Eventually, opposition will coalesce around some credible grouping.
Who Labour will lose power to is the interesting question.
I suspect Labour will sustain losses on 2016 & it will be their worst election since the creation of the Assembly. But, I expect they will struggle on as a minority Government.
I have sent my email address to you on a vanilla message. Feel free to contact me. I stopped using fungicides in our breeding program in1995, so I have some options for blackspot resistant varieties.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/27536
The boundary between Scotland and England has been pretty much fixed for 100s of years.
Quebec’s boundaries are much less certain. The Quebec that entered the Canadian Federation was geographically confined to the upper St Lawrence River. It received the vast territory of Nouveau Quebec (Prince Rupert’s Land) to govern on behalf of the Federation.
It was never really clear that a Quebec that became independent from the rest of Canada would or could take with it the resources-rich Nouveau Quebec.
http://www.boligsiden.dk/salg/783078961/
The block is in one of the more prosperous parts of Copenhagen. It had and I expect still has 24*7 porterage, two lifts, excellent upkeep, great view, shops and a good train service on one side, a village on the other, a playground underneath, two balconies per flat, and it STILL only costs £225,000 for a family flat, with 9 floors of about 15 flats - that's about 350 people living there. Plonk it anywhere in London at that price and the flats would sell overnight. Instead, we try to find space for 135 separate houses, and wonder why prices are high.
There aren't half a dozen, let alone 20.
I guess you may have missed it. But Labour are completely and utterly finished in Scotland.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW11oYZ6KyI
The SNP had an additional step up in order to succeed - a voting system which favoured them. Even when they were not doing well in Scotland they had 25% of the Holyrood seats. Without the AMS parliament they would never have been able to make the gains they have. And that STILL took nearly least a decade to achieve.
Without a different voting system, UKIP cannot expect any significant seat base at Westminster. They need, desperately, an AMS English parliament and there is no likelihood of that.
Since around 2008, I've done visited all stations on the London Oystercard Map, and all National Rail railways within about 50 miles of central London.
Between 2010 and 2012. interview visits enabled me to do Leuchars in Scotland via the East Coast and Edinburgh, Alderley Edge in Cheshire via the West Coast Line and Crewe, Bristol via the Great Western and Bath, and both Leicester and Sheffield on the Midland Main Line.
Since I started working in the Midlands in late 2013, I've done all routes on the West Midlands Day Ranger map (so basically routes out of Birmingham). Also this year did Nuneaton to Leicester, Tamworth to Derby, Birmingham to Cheltenham non-stop, and most recently Swindon to Cheltenham via Stroud.
Also did Eurostar from St Pancras to Brussels!
Heritage railways I've done include Epping Ongar (I was a volunteer in 2012 and 2013!), Romney, Hythe & Dymchurch, Severn Valley, Southend Pier, and Woburn Safari Park (it's on the Baker Atlas!).
He is the second longest lasting Scottish Labour leader since Devolution!
Good night all.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/united_kingdom/targets/lab
8 UEFA qualifiers is an utter disgrace. There are 7 UEFA Countries in the worlds top 24 ranking missing from the tournament.
2 African places, 1 Asian and 1 South American slit (at least) should be given to UEFA for a 24 team tournament. And Oceania should have a play off with a UEFA team now the Aussies are in Asia.
In fact there was no challenge on the Federal level to the Liberals until 2004 when the Tories infighting finally stabilised and the Liberals stopped getting everything their own way.
These circumstances are very different to Scotland where ALL the opposition parties look like the Tories did in Canada in 1997 and none of them are in any sort of position to challenge the SNP.
I understand that Loyalism needs its crutch to somehow dream the Union can survive. But it cannot. It is dead in the water, the SNP can call the next Referendum any time they want and nothing you do or say can stop that.
@AndyJS Yep, that's what I fear too. My family moved out of London nearly 9 years ago now. My grandparents still live there, but they bought their property (which is now absurdly worth more than 500k) in the 1960s!
@hunchman Interesting link. I'll be watching to see how the market is after 2015 to see if there are any changes!
Only one is less than 5000.
There is no opposition party in Scotland in a position to do what the Liberals managed in Canada.
Perhaps that's your problem, fingers in ears and eyes squeezed shut.
On a direct SNP-Labour swing on the scale of the decline in the BQ vote by 1997 in Quebec all the seats I mentioned would go back to Labour
The Danes tend to have smaller families, even for Europe. I notice it in the flats where my son lives in Copenhagen. It must mean less noise and stress.
I expect immigration may be raising the average, though.
Had Cretien not been the candidate the PQ vote would in my view have held. People trusted him as one of their own to look after Quebec's interests within the union, the same way people naively trusted Brown at both Westminster and for the last time at indyref. He is now persona non grata, with Kirkcaldy having one of the largest swings against Labour after he sold the constituency a pup.
Without Brown as leader the Scottish Labour vote which was soft and voting SNP at the Scot elections would have left an election or two earlier. Now that Labour are routed and promises of Home Rule from Brown and the 3 amigos have been shown to be lies there is a hardcore of up to 60% prepared to consider indy, up from perhaps 53% at time of indyref.
Whether they do actually vote is another matter; they are however prepared to consider it.
That about 7 or 8% were swayed last minute after jam tomorrow in a MSM blitz implying an apocalypse if a YES vote was carried (in tactics just like 1979) will soon be a historical fact that all sides agree. That ANOTHER 7 or 8% on top of that number who voted no and now regret it seems to be borne out by the polls.
How could Scots vote for Burnham/Kendall/Cooper over Sturgeon? Good grief, if Sturgeon led the UK Labour party they would probably have won 2015 election in a canter, judging on approval ratings.
UK Labour's only chance in Scotland now is/was to get another Scottish leader a la Chretien or offer a solution so people in Scot are not ruled by the M25 bubble squad. That will not happe a recovery will not happen.
Brits don't want to live half-way up in the sky, with noisy neighbours to the left, right, above and below. They want spacious detached homes. Their own patch of England. Their own garden. A small patio. A fence or hence around it all. Possibly with a porch. Usually with a few flowers. Very definitely all their own. That elusive "castle".
It is, in particular, the English dream. It explains why property programmes are so popular here, and why so few of the purchasers are looking for a flat as their dream property.
1. In London, while the seats tally might suggest a moving away from the Conservatives, they will probably find comfort in the actual votes in many of these constituencies - Labour only narrowly won Ealing Central and Brentford, which they had been expected to walk; Hampstead and Kilburn was a lot of closer than many on here thought; and seats like Hendon stayed Blue.
2. A hunch, but in the future we may need to start looking at London as two blocs rather than one; south of the river, Labour made little progress against the Conservatives and there is a chance that seats like Tooting may even be turn Blue. The Labour gains from the Conservatives were north of the river. To me - living in North London - South London increasingly seems to be of a more suburban mindset then North, which may explain the difference.
3. I would agree in the Core Cities themselves, the Conservatives' prospects do not look great; but, in their suburbs, things are better for the Tories. Take Manchester - the actual City of Manchester is unlikely to return a Conservative for the foreseeable future; yet, in Greater Manchester, the Tories had their best result since 1992, picking up one seat from Labour and two from the Lib Dems.