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SystemSystem Posts: 12,679
edited June 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » George Osborne’s first PMQs is a reminder of how strong his leadership chances are

It’s a big day for George Osborne. Cameron is away so, as the First Secretary of State in the new Conservative Government, he will be taking PMQs for the very first time – a very clear statement of his position in the pecking order.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Creasy is in!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    El_Capitano said:

    Creasy is in!

    Another white canidate. Awesome!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Osborne is the political strategist behind the Cameron leadership and much of the credit for last month’s victory can go to him.
    This post endorsed by NewsSense™
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    Scott_P said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Creasy is in!

    Another white canidate. Awesome!
    Nothing wrong with being white.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    Nothing wrong with being white.

    @DPJHodges: Why don't black lives matter to the Labour Pary? > Telegraph > http://t.co/q5VL8db2tN
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,889
    Quite a contrast to Blair and Brown.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    "Maybe a successful outcome to the EU referendum will be a key point. Wilson’s resignation came nine months after the 1975 European referendum"

    All the more reason for Boris to enhance his chances by fronting the No campaign.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    1) Does George Osborne want the job? This seems wholly unclear. He obviously enjoys power but there is nothing that shows that he unequivocally wants to be the front man. Would he prefer to repeat his 2005 success of pushing forward a more presentable alternative and continuing to pull the strings behind the scenes? Right now George Osborne looks happier in power and happier in what he is doing than he ever has previously.

    2) Even if he does, is his closeness to David Cameron going to be an advantage or a disadvantage at the critical moment? After the EU referendum, it seems likely that a clean break from the old regime might be sought if that was a divisive process.

    3) Since the general election result and David Cameron's announcement that he's not seeking a third term, laying Boris Johnson for next Conservative leader has been one of the easiest bets in politics. The next Conservative leader will immediately be Prime Minister and inevitably the contest will focus on executive competence and steadiness rather than charisma.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    Stella Creasy is at 4-1 with Hills, that seems like a touch of value to me on the basis that some of that 4-1 price was based on the fact she may not have been on the ballot and that clearing the 35 was tricky for her.

    Get your £2.50 or w/e you're allowed on.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Eagle and Bradshaw on the ballot too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    edited June 2015
    El_Capitano said:

    Eagle and Bradshaw on the ballot too.

    Bradshaw at 20s with Hills !

    Shorely they won't go for Eagle !
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,367
    Farcical process - with 6 candidates or fewer they should all be given a free pass onto the ballot.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    edited June 2015
    So on the ballot: Watson, Bradshaw, Eagle, Flint, Creasy ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Corbyn & Eagle - my dream ticket
    Pulpstar said:

    So on the ballot: Watson, Bradshaw, Eagle, Flint, Creasy ?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2015
    Whilst antifrank makes some good points on other side of the argument, on balance I think Mike is right that the current odds on Osborne are attractive.

    However, you can get better odds on him* being next PM than on next leader - the two are almost identical contigencies in current circumstances.

    * Osborne, not Mike!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Pulpstar, yes.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    SandyRentool said:

    Farcical process - with 6 candidates or fewer they should all be given a free pass onto the ballot.

    But this is the party of the block vote, Buggins' Turn, the electoral college and Brown hoovering up all the MP nominations to prevent the "election" he was contesting.

    Obviously the process is going to be farcical.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Plato said:

    Corbyn & Eagle - my dream ticket

    Pulpstar said:

    So on the ballot: Watson, Bradshaw, Eagle, Flint, Creasy ?

    Burnham and Watson has to be the ultimate dream for any Conservative.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Before Michael Howard helped promote Cameron, I can remember Osborne being the more fancied of the two. He should be the favourite.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,880
    Wish that PMQs could always be this civilised.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    It's realistically between Watson and Creasy for Labour deputy leader. Labour are looking for someone who can build up and work with the grassroots of the party, Creasy has some new ideas and Watson has been very prominent campaigning locally. Ex-mid level ministers like Flint and Eagle don't have much appeal.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2015
    Hilary vs George
    Q1: 17 year old bomber
    A1: Easy one. Nice comment about "Bennites in the party leadership contest" (thinks: 'this is fun')
    Q2: Anti-radicalisation programmes not working
    A2: Whatever (thinks 'there must be a trap here')
    Q3: More anti-radicalisation stuff
    A3: Blah, blah, easy peasy (thinks: 'apparently not')
    Q4: ISIS/ISIL - we must confront them!
    A4: Well, yes, obviously. (thinks: 'PMQ is a piece of cake')
    Q5: International aid / syrian refugees
    A5: Blah (thinks 'don't what Dave moans about')
    Q6: Refugees: withdrawing S&R ship from med?
    A6: Evade. Easy. (thinks 'wonder what's for dinner?')

    All-in-all, about as challenging as a modern day GCSE. Not a test at all.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,367
    What odds on a Lizstellagasm?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nothing wrong with being white.

    @DPJHodges: Why don't black lives matter to the Labour Pary? > Telegraph > http://t.co/q5VL8db2tN
    That's not one of Dan Hodges' better articles.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm obviously missing something about the Labour party leadership election process, but I had assumed that the requirement of getting 15% support in the Parliamentary party was to ensure that only credible candidates were put forward. Nomination-loaning seems quite pointless.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Osborne seems to be answering the questions rather more than Cameron does. Admittedly, this might partly be because the questions seem to be more sensible than usual.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited June 2015
    macisback said:

    Plato said:

    Corbyn & Eagle - my dream ticket

    Pulpstar said:

    So on the ballot: Watson, Bradshaw, Eagle, Flint, Creasy ?

    Burnham and Watson has to be the ultimate dream for any Conservative.
    I remember Kinnock + Hattersley being hailed as Labour's "dream ticket" in 1983. The only better outcome for the Tories would have been Kinnock + Benn. The process sent the very clear message to the punters about the state Labour was in. Labour was so loony left it actually felt relieved at having a couple of irresponsible unreconstructed spendthrift surrender monkeys in charge, because by Labour's lights in 1983, these were both "moderates". Well, yeah - but only compared to Bennov.

    One struggles to think of any outcome that wouldn't be a dream ticket today. Kendall / Flint, maybe; one a green cleanskin and the other an actual ex Minister although a lightweight and a bit too gorgeous and pouting (http://www.sunnation.co.uk/s3/sunnation-prod/uploads/2015/03/Caroline-Flint..jpg) to take seriously. Neither of them downright dislikeable though.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ditto.
    Sandpit said:

    Wish that PMQs could always be this civilised.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Plato said:

    Ditto.

    Sandpit said:

    Wish that PMQs could always be this civilised.

    Nah. It wouldn't be PMQ without some rough and tumble. Wouldn't be worth watching, either!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,921
    Anorak said:

    Hilary vs George
    Q1: 17 year old bomber
    A1: Easy one. Nice comment about "Bennites in the party leadership contest" (thinks: 'this is fun')
    Q2: Anti-radicalisation programmes not working
    A2: Whatever (thinks 'there must be a trap here')
    Q3: More anti-radicalisation stuff
    A3: Blah, blah, easy peasy (thinks: 'apparently not')
    Q4: ISIS/ISIL - we must confront them!
    A4: Well, yes, obviously. (thinks: 'PMQ is a piece of cake')
    Q5: International aid / syrian refugees
    A5: Blah (thinks 'don't what Dave moans about')
    Q6: Refugees: withdrawing S&R ship from med?
    A6: Evade. Easy. (thinks 'wonder what's for dinner?')

    All-in-all, about as challenging as a modern day GCSE. Not a test at all.

    Presumably it was felt George would be weakest on foreign matters
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2015
    rottenborough said:

    Anorak said:

    Hilary vs George
    Q1: 17 year old bomber
    A1: Easy one. Nice comment about "Bennites in the party leadership contest" (thinks: 'this is fun')
    Q2: Anti-radicalisation programmes not working
    A2: Whatever (thinks 'there must be a trap here')
    Q3: More anti-radicalisation stuff
    A3: Blah, blah, easy peasy (thinks: 'apparently not')
    Q4: ISIS/ISIL - we must confront them!
    A4: Well, yes, obviously. (thinks: 'PMQ is a piece of cake')
    Q5: International aid / syrian refugees
    A5: Blah (thinks 'don't what Dave moans about')
    Q6: Refugees: withdrawing S&R ship from med?
    A6: Evade. Easy. (thinks 'wonder what's for dinner?')

    All-in-all, about as challenging as a modern day GCSE. Not a test at all.

    Presumably it was felt George would be weakest on foreign matters
    Perhaps. Not one of the questions was especially testing. John Prescott could have dealt with them whilst reading the Hull Daily Mail and eating a king-size pork pie.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nothing wrong with being white.

    @DPJHodges: Why don't black lives matter to the Labour Pary? > Telegraph > http://t.co/q5VL8db2tN
    That's not one of Dan Hodges' better articles.
    It comes across as rather racist. How is it anti-black to limit immigration? I would guess the biggest demographic immigrating here these days are white people from Eastern Europe. Sajid Javid isn't up for the running of the Tory leadership because of tokenism towards an Asian man, he's there because he's good. Should the Labour party really be putting up racially divisive candidates like Diane Abbott and Sadiq Khan just so it can show it likes non-white people?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited June 2015
    antifrank said:

    I'm obviously missing something about the Labour party leadership election process, but I had assumed that the requirement of getting 15% support in the Parliamentary party was to ensure that only credible candidates were put forward. Nomination-loaning seems quite pointless.

    Unintended consequences I'd guess. 15% does indeed prevent silly candidates, but fails to take into account what happens if differently-silly candidates subvert the election by continuing to collect surplus nominations when they've already got the necessary 15%. The result as here is fewer candidates; in the really absurd case of the odious Brown, in only one candidate, which he clearly thought had been jolly clever.

    Someone who does this but then loans the excess nominations back to another candidate is honouring the spirit of the contest rules but is essentially doing two things to achieve nothing, which should perhaps give fair warning as to what the schmo would be like as PM. A sensible candidate would declare at 35 and stop collecting names.

    Labour really ought to have seen that coming but unlike, say, the failure of banking regulation, they didn't have the benefit of prescient advice from people like Peter Lilley.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,180
    I have to say in terms of "actually answering questions" George did pretty well. A very civilised and constructive session.

    Dave might be regretting his choice of deputy on this evidence...
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nothing wrong with being white.

    @DPJHodges: Why don't black lives matter to the Labour Pary? > Telegraph > http://t.co/q5VL8db2tN
    That's not one of Dan Hodges' better articles.
    It comes across as rather racist. How is it anti-black to limit immigration? I would guess the biggest demographic immigrating here these days are white people from Eastern Europe. Sajid Javid isn't up for the running of the Tory leadership because of tokenism towards an Asian man, he's there because he's good. Should the Labour party really be putting up racially divisive candidates like Diane Abbott and Sadiq Khan just so it can show it likes non-white people?
    I think we saw what it thinks of non-white people in Rotherham. But Labour clearly thinks the answer to your ending question is Yes. And so does Khan, who favours racial quotas and thus presumably favours racial quotas that include himself. Diane Abbott appears to be a racist herself so I doubt she'd ever take issue with racial preference.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm obviously missing something about the Labour party leadership election process, but I had assumed that the requirement of getting 15% support in the Parliamentary party was to ensure that only credible candidates were put forward. Nomination-loaning seems quite pointless.

    Unintended consequences I'd guess. 15% does indeed prevent silly candidates, but fails to take into account what happens if differently-silly candidates subvert the election by continuing to collect surplus nominations when they've already got the necessary 15%. The result as here is fewer candidates; in the really absurd case of the odious Brown, in only one candidate, which he clearly thought had been jolly clever.

    Someone who does this but then loans the excess nominations back to another candidate is honouring the spirit of the contest rules but is essentially doing two things to achieve nothing, which should perhaps give fair warning as to what the schmo would be like as PM. A sensible candidate would declare at 35 and stop collecting names.

    Labour really ought to have seen that coming but unlike, say, the failure of banking regulation, they didn't have the benefit of prescient advice from people like Peter Lilley.
    The Conservative system results in only two candidates being put to the wider electorate by the time that the MPs have concluded their part of the process. I don't recall much concern about the small number of such candidates in Conservative leadership elections.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    When Osborne spoke about what the Prime Minister was doing he almost sounded as if he was talking about a subordinate to whom he'd given an important assignment.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,021
    williamglenn said:

    When Osborne spoke about what the Prime Minister was doing he almost sounded as if he was talking about a subordinate to whom he'd given an important assignment.

    Osborne has, if anything, been more vindicated by last month's events than Cameron. He had a very good election.

    Cameron, Osborne and Hodges: three people widely derided on here, but who appear to have more nous than their detractors.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    antifrank said:

    The Conservative system results in only two candidates being put to the wider electorate by the time that the MPs have concluded their part of the process. I don't recall much concern about the small number of such candidates in Conservative leadership elections.

    There was in 2001.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    edited June 2015
    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nothing wrong with being white.

    @DPJHodges: Why don't black lives matter to the Labour Pary? > Telegraph > http://t.co/q5VL8db2tN
    That's not one of Dan Hodges' better articles.
    It comes across as rather racist. How is it anti-black to limit immigration? I would guess the biggest demographic immigrating here these days are white people from Eastern Europe. Sajid Javid isn't up for the running of the Tory leadership because of tokenism towards an Asian man, he's there because he's good. Should the Labour party really be putting up racially divisive candidates like Diane Abbott and Sadiq Khan just so it can show it likes non-white people?
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nothing wrong with being white.

    @DPJHodges: Why don't black lives matter to the Labour Pary? > Telegraph > http://t.co/q5VL8db2tN
    That's not one of Dan Hodges' better articles.
    It comes across as rather racist. How is it anti-black to limit immigration? I would guess the biggest demographic immigrating here these days are white people from Eastern Europe. Sajid Javid isn't up for the running of the Tory leadership because of tokenism towards an Asian man, he's there because he's good. Should the Labour party really be putting up racially divisive candidates like Diane Abbott and Sadiq Khan just so it can show it likes non-white people?
    Indeed. And, the title is deliberately inflammatory as well as introducing comparisons with German National Socialism.

    It's silly to refer to all ethnic minority voters as "black" too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,866
    Bob__Sykes said:

    I have to say in terms of "actually answering questions" George did pretty well. A very civilised and constructive session.

    Dave might be regretting his choice of deputy on this evidence...

    To be fair, Dave has never faced Hilary Benn bowling an under-arm tennis ball at him before. Although, some of Ed's efforts were hardly bodyline bowling....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Just catching up with PMQs.

    Hilary Benn needs a history lesson.

    He said the events in the Med are the largest movement of refugees since World War II?

    Is it really larger than the movement that we saw when India was partitioned?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just catching up with PMQs.

    Hilary Benn needs a history lesson.

    He said the events in the Med are the largest movement of refugees since World War II?

    Is it really larger than the movement that we saw when India was partitioned?

    Might the biggest movement of Med refugees since 1923 - with Greek Turkish population exchanges or ethnic cleansing.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,866
    I'm still not convinced about Prime Minister Osborne. He has an opportunity to be a historically top-notch Chancellor. But for that to happen, he has to stay and guide the recovery through this full term (especially if the upcoming Budget is as radical as some have suggested).

    The stability of his remaining in post would also be a great comfort to an incoming Prime Minister.This would be a reason for me as a Party member NOT to vote for him as a new PM. With Osborne as PM, it is likely to be musical chairs across Govt. - and who knows how that plays out.

    There is also no guarantee that he would be as good as a PM as he was a CotE. History might just remember him as a poor PM who lost the majority, rather than the best Chancellor we have known.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    edited June 2015
    With inflation more or less perfectly at zero, wages up, unemployment down is it all Europe that's caused the FTSE to fall ~ 300 pts over the last fortnight or so ?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited June 2015
    Sean_F said:



    It's silly to refer to all ethnic minority voters as "black" too.

    Do the Irish and Poles count as ethnic minorities or not these days? I can never keep up with the latest rulings from the high priests of political correctness.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    Julius?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    edited June 2015
    I'm about 80% sure Osborne will take over from Cameron... And although he will probably win the 2020 election due to Lab's weakness, I think he will prove a disaster for the Con's and eventually take them back to Opposition...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    With inflation more or less perfectly at zero, wages up, unemployment down is it all Europe that's caused the FTSE to fall ~ 300 pts over the last fortnight or so ?

    Greece.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    Julius?
    No, Gus, the once-legendary error-prone Arsenal full-back.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    Julius?
    Yes.

    http://dailym.ai/1IDajQi
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    I was with you on not thinking he even wanted to be leader, but right now, why not? He's only 44, he's had time to grow into his position and done a great job for his party. It certainly is not as silly as it once seemed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:



    It's silly to refer to all ethnic minority voters as "black" too.

    Do the Irish and Poles count as ethnic minorities or not these days? I can never keep up with the latest rulings from the high priests of political correctness.
    Good question. I have noticed more references to BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic) rather than BME these days, so there's been some shifts (if not to the Greens' LGBTIQ everywhere), certainly.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    I was with you on not thinking he even wanted to be leader, but right now, why not? He's only 44, he's had time to grow into his position and done a great job for his party. It certainly is not as silly as it once seemed.

    If only there was a regular contributor to this site who was an expert on all things Osborne that could chart every significant moment of his career and inevitable rise to power and greatness...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MarqueeMark said:

    I'm still not convinced about Prime Minister Osborne. He has an opportunity to be a historically top-notch Chancellor. But for that to happen, he has to stay and guide the recovery through this full term (especially if the upcoming Budget is as radical as some have suggested).

    The stability of his remaining in post would also be a great comfort to an incoming Prime Minister.This would be a reason for me as a Party member NOT to vote for him as a new PM. With Osborne as PM, it is likely to be musical chairs across Govt. - and who knows how that plays out.

    There is also no guarantee that he would be as good as a PM as he was a CotE. History might just remember him as a poor PM who lost the majority, rather than the best Chancellor we have known.

    Surely that counts double when you're talking about Cameron's legacy. That's why I still have a feeling that Cameron might go back on his plan to leave before the election.

    If Osborne is the next leader then it makes the question of what Cameron does next even more difficult. I can't see him sitting on the back-benches so he either retreats a la John Major or takes a Cabinet job. Either would be very unusual in the circumstances.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If George Osborne were to become next Prime Minister, I'd have bragging rights for life with two of my nephews and nieces. When I told them a couple of years ago that it was a serious possibility, they looked at me as though I had two heads.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited June 2015
    Osborne's star is currently in the ascendant. Five years is a long time to sustain that. I suspect he will FO at some-point in the next two years to get that global experience and lower the risk.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Cameron's pledge to serve a full second term (but not thinking about a third) makes sense if you think of it as a tactic to head off leadership speculation early in the parliament. At a time when a majority didn't seem likely he may have thought that calls for Boris/someone else to take over could have been a big problem for him right now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    I was with you on not thinking he even wanted to be leader, but right now, why not? He's only 44, he's had time to grow into his position and done a great job for his party. It certainly is not as silly as it once seemed.
    I have another pro Osborne thread coming up in the next few days.

    I think I'm going to have revise it some more.

    To think someone wrote a thread three years ago saying Osborne was crap and needed to be replaced by Ken Clarke.

    What a numpty.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    As I've said on here many times, it's always a mistake not to take Cameron at his word. The pledge is clear; a full term.
    I therefore see him going all the way to 2020, with a new Conservative Party leader selected a year ahead of time, who will lead the GE campaign as the designated 'next' prime minister.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Jonathan said:

    Osborne's star is currently in the ascendant. Five years is a long time to sustain that. I suspect he will FO at some-point in the next two years to get that global experience and lower the risk.

    It is a long time, but in fairness his supposed top rival, Boris, has been trying to stretch out his star's ascendancy even longer (I think his moment has passed - the timing and his position was never right to have a go at it at his ascendancy). And considering he has been chancellor for 5 years, he's been pretty low key, no Gordon Brown type battling it out for control with his PM, so he's experienced and powerful, but without as much of a profile as his job would suggest, giving him time even now to build up a PM like profile I think.

    I still don't know if he can manage it (or win in 2020 if he does), or if he will try to steer things from behind the scenes forevermore (I have this vision of him being chancellor for 15-20 years, switching out his frontman when he needs to), but when suggested as an option now, I'd expect people to shrug before answering in the positive or negative now, whereas before it would just be instant dismissal.

    Could be fun - newer faces wanting to rise, but Osborne is old guard but still fresh faced (It's hard to think he will have been chancellor for 10 years possibly before he is even 50), a threat to their chances.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Should Tom Watson really be favourite in the deputy race? The membership don't need to be scared of him. But the Murdoch stuff will play well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Baskerville said:

    As I've said on here many times, it's always a mistake not to take Cameron at his word. The pledge is clear; a full term.

    Indeed that's the only 'cast iron' pledge I can see in his words about this. He said he 'wasn't contemplating a third term' which only means he's focused on the here and now. His options are still open.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Osborne will always be the continuity candidate, no matter what he does between now and the end of the parliament. The question is whether the continuity candidate will get elected.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    I still think Javid is by far the best choice for the Tory Party, assuming he proves to be a competent Minister and (more importantly) an effective communicator. But I doubt he'd stand in Osborne's way.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    antifrank said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm obviously missing something about the Labour party leadership election process, but I had assumed that the requirement of getting 15% support in the Parliamentary party was to ensure that only credible candidates were put forward. Nomination-loaning seems quite pointless.

    Unintended consequences I'd guess. 15% does indeed prevent silly candidates, but fails to take into account what happens if differently-silly candidates subvert the election by continuing to collect surplus nominations when they've already got the necessary 15%. The result as here is fewer candidates; in the really absurd case of the odious Brown, in only one candidate, which he clearly thought had been jolly clever.

    Someone who does this but then loans the excess nominations back to another candidate is honouring the spirit of the contest rules but is essentially doing two things to achieve nothing, which should perhaps give fair warning as to what the schmo would be like as PM. A sensible candidate would declare at 35 and stop collecting names.

    Labour really ought to have seen that coming but unlike, say, the failure of banking regulation, they didn't have the benefit of prescient advice from people like Peter Lilley.
    The Conservative system results in only two candidates being put to the wider electorate by the time that the MPs have concluded their part of the process. I don't recall much concern about the small number of such candidates in Conservative leadership elections.
    It can't ever really be one candidate though can it? - unless that is what the parliamentary party wants. Foisting someone on them that they don't actually support rarely ends well (IDS, EIC)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,880
    Baskerville said:

    As I've said on here many times, it's always a mistake not to take Cameron at his word. The pledge is clear; a full term.
    I therefore see him going all the way to 2020, with a new Conservative Party leader selected a year ahead of time, who will lead the GE campaign as the designated 'next' prime minister.

    Agree with that. He'll have his successor chosen at Conference 2019 and that person will lead the policy formulation and campaign while DC stays as PM up until the election.

    The alternative, of course, is that DC crashes out in the aftermath of the EU referendum, in which case anything could happen in the melee that follows!

    I am pleased to see @antifrank agree with me that laying Boris is the way forward now, I've got nearly four figures on that position at close to evens.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:



    It's silly to refer to all ethnic minority voters as "black" too.

    Do the Irish and Poles count as ethnic minorities or not these days? I can never keep up with the latest rulings from the high priests of political correctness.
    I think they're regarded by Labour with contempt, as just generic WWC scum, except that the name on the side of the white van is Polish.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    Julius?
    Yes.

    http://dailym.ai/1IDajQi
    Boris = Brutus ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Tissue_Price said:

    Should Tom Watson really be favourite in the deputy race? The membership don't need to be scared of him. But the Murdoch stuff will play well.

    I'm writing the afternoon thread on the Deputy Leadership election, writing the pros and cons of everyone is easy for all the candidates bar Watson.

    He's the slayer of Blair and Murdoch, should make him favourite.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    If GO becomes PM, tim will explode. he is still fighting yesterdays battles on twitter.. Its rather sad really.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Other than location, are twitter trends based on your user details?

    Don't want a repeat of the escort fiasco.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    kle4 said:

    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:



    It's silly to refer to all ethnic minority voters as "black" too.

    Do the Irish and Poles count as ethnic minorities or not these days? I can never keep up with the latest rulings from the high priests of political correctness.
    Good question. I have noticed more references to BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic) rather than BME these days, so there's been some shifts (if not to the Greens' LGBTIQ everywhere), certainly.
    It should be "Ethnic Minority" in my opinion! "Minority Ethnique" sounds a little Francophone :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Stella is the favourite for the deputy contest IMO. She actually has the balls to stand up for things, unlike the majority of the rather feeble frontbench.

    Tom Watson is one of those people who has got a "left-wing" tag despite no-one ever being able to pinpoint any left-wing views he has. I dunno, but I've never really got the impression there's all that much enthusiasm for him with the grassroots.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Other than location, are twitter trends based on your user details?

    Don't want a repeat of the escort fiasco.

    IP address doesn't all mean physical location, particularly when connected to mobile networks and public wifi networks
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    China and Australia have just signed a free trade deal.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/17/china-and-australia-formally-sign-free-trade-agreement
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,880
    edited June 2015
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nothing wrong with being white.

    @DPJHodges: Why don't black lives matter to the Labour Pary? > Telegraph > http://t.co/q5VL8db2tN
    That's not one of Dan Hodges' better articles.
    Sajid Javid isn't up for the running of the Tory leadership because of tokenism towards an Asian man, he's there because he's good. Should the Labour party really be putting up racially divisive candidates like Diane Abbott and Sadiq Khan just so it can show it likes non-white people?
    Exactly. The Conservatives don't care about gender or race in the same way as Labour, yet Sajid Javid, Priti Patel, Theresa May and others are there on merit rather then to fill some quota or other. Don't whatever you do mention M******t T*****r!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've always thought Osborne would never want to be Tory Leader, but prefers to be the Éminence grise, first for Cameron, then Javid.

    But like Mike, I'm now thinking he wants it, and he can have it.

    The Tory Party really do appreciate his skills as a top top strategist and tactician.

    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    Julius?
    Yes.

    http://dailym.ai/1IDajQi
    Boris = Brutus ?
    Nah, Sajid Javid or Matt Hancock as Brutus
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    Arf I won a twitter tipping competition yesterday for a £50 free bet, somehow had unfollowed the prizegiver ( @Raceclear) and didn't even back the nags myself :D
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    GOWNBPM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    Tissue_Price said:

    Should Tom Watson really be favourite in the deputy race? The membership don't need to be scared of him. But the Murdoch stuff will play well.

    Isn't his price way too short now and was based on the fact that he would be pretty much a slam dunk vs Flint in a 2 horse race ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,301
    Question is, will GO come to see his hitherto desired role as FS now as somehow diminishing his record as CotE? If so then that pushes him upwards, towards PM, for legacy purposes.

    In other news, thank goodness we don't live in the US or have to abide by their current/future/past "ok" way to refer to "people of color".

    It really does tie them up in knots, brought into focus with this Dolezal case, hearing the protagonists and commentators discuss it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Alanbrooke said:

    GOWNBPM

    You too will explode!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    Danny565 said:

    Stella is the favourite for the deputy contest IMO. She actually has the balls to stand up for things, unlike the majority of the rather feeble frontbench.

    Tom Watson is one of those people who has got a "left-wing" tag despite no-one ever being able to pinpoint any left-wing views he has. I dunno, but I've never really got the impression there's all that much enthusiasm for him with the grassroots.

    Hope you're right. It seems blindingly obvious to me that she's the best of the bunch.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,374
    Anorak said:

    Hilary vs George
    Q1: 17 year old bomber
    A1: Easy one. Nice comment about "Bennites in the party leadership contest" (thinks: 'this is fun')
    Q2: Anti-radicalisation programmes not working
    A2: Whatever (thinks 'there must be a trap here')
    Q3: More anti-radicalisation stuff
    A3: Blah, blah, easy peasy (thinks: 'apparently not')
    Q4: ISIS/ISIL - we must confront them!
    A4: Well, yes, obviously. (thinks: 'PMQ is a piece of cake')
    Q5: International aid / syrian refugees
    A5: Blah (thinks 'don't what Dave moans about')
    Q6: Refugees: withdrawing S&R ship from med?
    A6: Evade. Easy. (thinks 'wonder what's for dinner?')

    All-in-all, about as challenging as a modern day GCSE. Not a test at all.

    Didn't see it but this strikes me as extremely sensible from Benn. Osborne has the capacity to be really quite brutal given the opportunity so it was better to ask him questions on issues that are really not contentious.

    If they wanted something more exciting Labour should really have put up one of the candidates for leader but I bet none of them fancied it. Too much to lose.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    antifrank said:

    If George Osborne were to become next Prime Minister, I'd have bragging rights for life with two of my nephews and nieces. When I told them a couple of years ago that it was a serious possibility, they looked at me as though I had two heads.

    Sorry to break this to you, antifrank, but they'll have forgotten all about it, and when you remind them, they'll think you're rather sad...
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Danny565 said:

    Tom Watson is one of those people who has got a "left-wing" tag despite no-one ever being able to pinpoint any left-wing views he has. I dunno, but I've never really got the impression there's all that much enthusiasm for him with the grassroots.

    Incorrect.

    BTW, how many of you got on Corbyn at north of 100/1? Now 18/1 on Betfair.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    SquareRoot said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    GOWNBPM

    You too will explode!
    Why ? I judge the man on his ability and he's ineffective. An overpromoted furby sits in the big chair for a bit, nothing much will happen bar gimmicks.

  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    logical_song said:


    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    Julius?

    Sid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sid_Caesar
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Time to go balls deep on In winning at least 70% of the vote

    Nigel Farage defied critics this morning to vow he will lead the charge for the No campaign because other politicians won’t step up.

    His comments are a direct challenge to senior Tories, who claim the controversial Ukip boss is too “toxic” to take a high profile role in the campaign.

    http://bit.ly/1Fmn7Wo
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,180
    Baskerville said:

    As I've said on here many times, it's always a mistake not to take Cameron at his word. The pledge is clear; a full term.
    I therefore see him going all the way to 2020, with a new Conservative Party leader selected a year ahead of time, who will lead the GE campaign as the designated 'next' prime minister.

    That would be a bit daft though. Why not let the prospective PM show the electorate what he can actually do for a year by having the job? To do otherwise would suggest a lack of confidence in the new man or woman.

    Why give up that massive advantage that the Tories have over the Labour prospective PM?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    handandmouse said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tom Watson is one of those people who has got a "left-wing" tag despite no-one ever being able to pinpoint any left-wing views he has. I dunno, but I've never really got the impression there's all that much enthusiasm for him with the grassroots.

    Incorrect.

    BTW, how many of you got on Corbyn at north of 100/1? Now 18/1 on Betfair.
    I have a green number of around £500 to play around on Corbyn with.

    The question is what price is the correct one to lay at ?
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    I wouldn't touch any EU Referendum markets until we have an outcome to the Greek Crisis
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,099
    handandmouse said:

    I wouldn't touch any EU Referendum markets until we have an outcome to the Greek Crisis

    Greece just needs to plain leave. If it stays it's just going to drag the Euro lower and lower. There'll be an exit shock when it happens, but prolonging the inevitable will only make matters worse.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 969
    Last call for Denmark game

    Afternoon all,

    If anyone would like to play the Denmark game, it closes at 7pm today:

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/denmark15/

    Many thanks,

    DC
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    200th Anniversary of Waterloo tomorrow.

    My my, can I segue in any subtle references into a Swedish band into tomorrow's threads?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Farage on leading the campaign: - “I would be prepared to of course. But I suspect what we will see is somebody coming from completely outside of normal politics, somebody from the world of business or entertainment that hasn’t got any political baggage at all. I think someone like that may well emerge.”

    I guess that disqualifies Eddie Izzard then.. :lol:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/17/nigel-farage-prepared-lead-no-campaign-eu-referendum
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    JEO said:

    Sean_F said:



    It's silly to refer to all ethnic minority voters as "black" too.

    Do the Irish and Poles count as ethnic minorities or not these days? I can never keep up with the latest rulings from the high priests of political correctness.
    For the purposes of the annual educational census, any child who does not have two White British parents is an ethnic minority. I would count as an ethnic minority on that basis.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    Disraeli said:

    logical_song said:


    No wonder he is being compared to Caesar

    Julius?
    Sid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sid_Caesar

    Cesar Romero?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cesar_Romero#/media/File:Romero_as_The_Joker.png
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