politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The OUT side needs someone other than Farage fronting the c
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The OUT side needs someone other than Farage fronting the campaign
Looking at the above findings from Survation on behalf of British Future, if the EU referendum is a head to head between David Cameron and Nigel Farage, it is advantage to Cameron and the In side (assuming Cameron campaigns for the UK to remain in the EU.)
Comments
-
First!
Yes, the Out side need someone other than Farage to be fronting the campaign. Winning a referendum is about building a consensus on an issue from a variety of different political viewpoints. Farage can't hope to get 50% of the country behind him.
Let him talk to the kippers for sure, but the political leader of the campaign needs to be someone with respect from all sides in the way Darling was in the Scottish referendum.
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.0 -
Step forward . . .Sandpit said:First!
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.
(Drum roll)
. . . David Cameron!
(As if he would!)
0 -
Well it would certainly increase his personal approval ratings on the subject! Conversely, were he to try to dress up the outcome of his negotiations as something they're not his trust on the issue will take a big hit.Disraeli said:
Step forward . . .Sandpit said:First!
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.
(Drum roll)
. . . David Cameron!
(As if he would!)0 -
Farage leading out is the political equivalent of trying to win Eurovision with Slade.0
-
Is the surprise in the poll the softness of the over 55 “Out” vote? Although a majority are for Out, two-thirds of those voters are only leaning that way. Not convinced.0
-
Indeed. If the PM tries to dress up a fig leaf as serious reform then the public will see straight through it.tlg86 said:
Well it would certainly increase his personal approval ratings on the subject! Conversely, were he to try to dress up the outcome of his negotiations as something they're not his trust on the issue will take a big hit.Disraeli said:
Step forward . . .Sandpit said:First!
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.
(Drum roll)
. . . David Cameron!
(As if he would!)
There needs to be established a two-speed EU such that those not in the Euro leave those that are to get on with their Superstate, and sort Greece out themselves.
The crunch for me was when the Eurozone countries tried to propose the financial services tax last year, the vast majority of which would be paid in London rather than the EZ. If we can't stop future proposals like that then we are better off out.0 -
Just when the FIFA revelations couldn't get any more bizzare and corrupt, along comes this!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/fifa/11657442/Fifa-in-crisis-Morocco-won-2010-World-Cup-vote-not-South-Africa.htmlNew corruption allegations against Fifa claim Morocco won the 2010 World Cup vote instead of South Africa, who ended up hosting the contest.
Is this really saying that they tallied up the votes cast then blatantly lied about the result of the ballot?
Claims have emerged that Fifa and Sepp Blatter were allegedly handed tapes of one official, Ismail Bhamjee, revealing Morocco had won five years ago.0 -
It seems obvious that Farage isn't the right person to build a broad coalition, but who is? Pretty much any other Kipper would have the same problem, and they don't have enough money to hire Tony Blair. So who?
I suppose one option is to get someone from outside politics, but that approach didn't work well for Yes2AV.0 -
I think that the reason no-one stands out now is that a lot of the well known politicians are yet to make up their mind which side of the fence they will be on for the referendum.edmundintokyo said:It seems obvious that Farage isn't the right person to build a broad coalition, but who is? Pretty much any other Kipper would have the same problem, and they don't have enough money to hire Tony Blair. So who?
I suppose one option is to get someone from outside politics, but that approach didn't work well for Yes2AV.
The question is much more difficult and the arguments on both sides much more nuanced than AV or even Scottish indy debates, and as such most of them are waiting to see what the PM can come up with. Of course as mentioned below, if Cameron calls a fig leaf a fig leaf then he will lead the campaign, otherwise let's see who of the big hitters ends up on the Out side.0 -
Isn't that the problem for OUT?Sandpit said:First!
Yes, the Out side need someone other than Farage to be fronting the campaign. Winning a referendum is about building a consensus on an issue from a variety of different political viewpoints. Farage can't hope to get 50% of the country behind him.
Let him talk to the kippers for sure, but the political leader of the campaign needs to be someone with respect from all sides in the way Darling was in the Scottish referendum.
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.
Most politicians have a good idea of what is achievable in negotiations because they have thought long and hard about the issues and know the people who will be doing the negotiating. Many of these will have already made up their minds and know which way they will vote regardless of what Cameron achieves.
The achievements are likely to be technical and difficult to grasp by the general public, so the vote will go by who you trust most out of Cameron, New Labour Leader, New LibDem Leader and Farage.
So far it looks like a one way bet.0 -
There aren't any heavyweight Lab or Lib politicians on the fence about the EU, so we're just talking about Tories. So any ideas for an ambitious, middle-ranking cabinet minister with good communication skills?Sandpit said:
I think that the reason no-one stands out now is that a lot of the well known politicians are yet to make up their mind which side of the fence they will be on for the referendum.edmundintokyo said:It seems obvious that Farage isn't the right person to build a broad coalition, but who is? Pretty much any other Kipper would have the same problem, and they don't have enough money to hire Tony Blair. So who?
I suppose one option is to get someone from outside politics, but that approach didn't work well for Yes2AV.
The question is much more difficult and the arguments on both sides much more nuanced than AV or even Scottish indy debates, and as such most of them are waiting to see what the PM can come up with. Of course as mentioned below, if Cameron calls a fig leaf a fig leaf then he will lead the campaign, otherwise let's see who of the big hitters ends up on the Out side.0 -
Got it, Priti Patel.0
-
Right, but if you're a middle-ranking cabinet minister you get to be become the de-facto representative of a large part - probably the majority - of Conservative activists. Even if you lead the "out" campaign and lose you probably end up with your stature increased and a better job under Cameron's successor, and if you win then you have a good claim to be PM after Cameron.logical_song said:
Isn't that the problem for OUT?Sandpit said:First!
Yes, the Out side need someone other than Farage to be fronting the campaign. Winning a referendum is about building a consensus on an issue from a variety of different political viewpoints. Farage can't hope to get 50% of the country behind him.
Let him talk to the kippers for sure, but the political leader of the campaign needs to be someone with respect from all sides in the way Darling was in the Scottish referendum.
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.
Most politicians have a good idea of what is achievable in negotiations because they have thought long and hard about the issues and know the people who will be doing the negotiating. Many of these will have already made up their minds and know which way they will vote regardless of what Cameron achieves.
The achievements are likely to be technical and difficult to grasp by the general public, so the vote will go by who you trust most out of Cameron, New Labour Leader, New LibDem Leader and Farage.
So far it looks like a one way bet.
The difficult part is timing.
1) Jumping to "out" is much easier to sell after negotiations than before, but that's cutting it pretty fine.
2) There's no benefit unless you actually get to be in charge. But if you jump now, you risk getting gazumped by someone more senior who makes the switch later.0 -
That's an interesting one! I was thinking along the lines of Fox or possibly Javid. Hannan is an excellent orator but probably a little too fanatical for the general public.edmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
You make an interesting point about ambition - if DC tried to dress up the fig leaf as an Armani suit and then loses the referendum, whoever leads the Out campaign would be a good bet for next Tory leader.
Interesting times ahead for all parties!0 -
Brussels just laughs at Farage. The EU's Useful Idiot.
The only way Out wins is if the campaign is fronted by Cameron, with Boris and Osborne on either side of him.
The only way Cameron gets any meaningful concessions is if the EU believes that trio campaigning for No is a realistic possibility.
Over to you, Dave...0 -
@RobbieGibb: New group, Conservatives for Britain, will campaign for "out" in EU referendum. Co-chair @SteveBakerHW on #bbcsp 11am http://t.co/AppkDg3hhB0
-
Won’t do anything which will damage her standing in the `Party. IMHO, anywayedmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
0 -
Blair Jenkins was the CEO of the Yes Campaign in Scotland, but we all knew that Salmond was the real leader.Sandpit said:First!
Yes, the Out side need someone other than Farage to be fronting the campaign. Winning a referendum is about building a consensus on an issue from a variety of different political viewpoints. Farage can't hope to get 50% of the country behind him.
Let him talk to the kippers for sure, but the political leader of the campaign needs to be someone with respect from all sides in the way Darling was in the Scottish referendum.
My suggestion would be someone Conservative who is won over to the Out side late in the day, after the renegotiation is complete, rather than an ideologue who would want to quit now irrespective of what happens in the next 18 months.
No matter who is the nominal leader, it is Farage who will be the face of the Out campaign. I cannot see him stepping into the background for someone else.0 -
As an over-55, I could be convinced to stay very easily. We voted forty years ago to remain in the 'common market' and that probably hasn't changed. It's the assumption by some that by re-writing history and referring to the small print they can convince us we voted for something else entirely that really annoys.
If the Eurocrats behave by not mentioning the final solution - political union, and Cameron can make the tinsel look like golden 'no ifs.and no buts', I'm sure IN will win.
If not, it could get interesting.0 -
And for the definitely decided in the over 55's the Inners lead the Outers by 17% to 15%. I would say that in this group it is fairly neck and neck.OldKingCole said:Is the surprise in the poll the softness of the over 55 “Out” vote? Although a majority are for Out, two-thirds of those voters are only leaning that way. Not convinced.
The youngsters are clearly for In though. It is important for the In campaign to get these voters engaged. It is them that are going to have to live with the consequences.
0 -
Morning all.
Have to agree with those that think Farage should represent the kippers in the big tent, but would do more harm than good, if he was leading the OUT campaign.
The question of who should be leader however, is an interesting one; apart from the basic skills required by all leaders, he/she would also need to have cross party support and appeal to others groups within the tent, including the wider business community. – Personally I’d look to the HoL first, rather than an MP. The campaign would be better served imho with a Lord Coe figurehead. - arise Lord Hannan perhaps?
0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Sandpit, if only it were so. Many fools in this country would welcome banker-bashing taxes, even if the money were thrown at profligate Club Med countries.0 -
Bankers are hardly known for their prudence these days. Casino banks cost us more than Greece ever has.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Sandpit, if only it were so. Many fools in this country would welcome banker-bashing taxes, even if the money were thrown at profligate Club Med countries.0 -
It would improve her standing in the party, the grass-roots are BOO.OldKingCole said:
Won’t do anything which will damage her standing in the `Party. IMHO, anywayedmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
0 -
Mr. Jonathan, you'd welcome British taxes propping up spendthrift Greeks?0
-
F1: trying to find some sort of tip. Surprisingly/rubbishly, no double-score market up on Ladbrokes.0
-
I live in Northern Italy...every single one of my Italian friends and associates would vote to leave the EU if they were given the choice.. and they range from farmers, mechanics,teachers business men, bankers and a fair number of students.
0 -
Of course not, I'd welcome a govt that focussed on the real risks to the UK economy rather than a distracting referendum. The lack of bank reform is troubling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, you'd welcome British taxes propping up spendthrift Greeks?
0 -
I'm not sure how true that is, especially nowadays. The grass-roots may have been sceptical over the Euro (eg not in favour of joining it like Ken Clarke) but there is a massive difference between that and BOO.edmundintokyo said:
It would improve her standing in the party, the grass-roots are BOO.OldKingCole said:
Won’t do anything which will damage her standing in the `Party. IMHO, anywayedmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
Scepticism fits more in Leaning than definite.0 -
Mr. Dodd, is that a Venetian view?
F1: want to wait for the double-score market to appear, as there's not much to whet my appetite so far.0 -
Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible. He's seemed quite pro-EU as London Mayor, but he's also seemed quite pro-immigration, whereas before he gave the opposite impression. Similarly, he's given some sceptic-sounding speeches lately on the EU as his ayoralty draws to a close.
My impression is that he adapts his views to his audience with a miasma of buffoonery to cover the switching - a kinder interpretation would be that he's simply been representing Londoners as they wish - and that he'd be perfectly willing to lead an Out campaign if he thought it would lead him to Number 10. And he probably really would change the potential outcome, whereas Lord X or MEP Y or businessman Z really would not.0 -
Boris' integrity is beyond question. He has consistently taken and promoted a pro Boris line in everything he does, whatever that might be.NickPalmer said:Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible.t.
His current predicament is to carve out a role in an unexpected majority situation.0 -
I think that the British taxpayers exposure to the Greek financial crisis comes from our involvement in the IMF rather than in the EU. Are you proposing that we leave the IMF too?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, you'd welcome British taxes propping up spendthrift Greeks?
0 -
Bottas 4/1 for a podium seems like it could be value. He's got the Mercedes engine and starts 4th, with only Kimi's Ferrari between himself and the bottom step. Ferrari have already had one failure of their "new and improved" engine this weekend.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dodd, is that a Venetian view?
F1: want to wait for the double-score market to appear, as there's not much to whet my appetite so far.
1/2 on a safety car also sounds reasonable, but I'd check about whether this covers the 'virtual' SC before betting on it. Sky's interview with Charlie Whiting on Friday suggested they would use it to move a car out of the way where there is no cleaning up to do and no medical intervention needed - a good example might be Button's car where it stopped in FP3 yesterday.0 -
Is this really saying that they tallied up the votes cast then blatantly lied about the result of the ballot?Sandpit said:Just when the FIFA revelations couldn't get any more bizzare and corrupt, along comes this!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/fifa/11657442/Fifa-in-crisis-Morocco-won-2010-World-Cup-vote-not-South-Africa.htmlNew corruption allegations against Fifa claim Morocco won the 2010 World Cup vote instead of South Africa, who ended up hosting the contest.
Claims have emerged that Fifa and Sepp Blatter were allegedly handed tapes of one official, Ismail Bhamjee, revealing Morocco had won five years ago.
Surely too blatant. Surely.
I know a few British Moroccans who are still furious they lost, maintaining they'd have been a far better host - no vuvuzelas I guess - so I look forward to their take on this.0 -
Boris is in favour of Boris. No more, no less.Jonathan said:
Boris' integrity is beyond question. He has consistently taken and promoted a pro Boris line in everything he does, whatever that might be.NickPalmer said:Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible.t.
His current predicament is to carve out a role in an unexpected majority situation.
0 -
Boris has charisma, intelligence and ambition, but no loyalty or integrity.NickPalmer said:Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible. He's seemed quite pro-EU as London Mayor, but he's also seemed quite pro-immigration, whereas before he gave the opposite impression. Similarly, he's given some sceptic-sounding speeches lately on the EU as his ayoralty draws to a close.
My impression is that he adapts his views to his audience with a miasma of buffoonery to cover the switching - a kinder interpretation would be that he's simply been representing Londoners as they wish - and that he'd be perfectly willing to lead an Out campaign if he thought it would lead him to Number 10. And he probably really would change the potential outcome, whereas Lord X or MEP Y or businessman Z really would not.0 -
Mr. Foxinsox, if the IMF were trying to take away our sovereignty a piece at a time, I would. It isn't, so I don't.
Mr. Sandpit, that's actually one on my early potential bets list. I do lack confidence the Williams can match the Ferrari on race pace, though. And the Williams also has had an engine issue (for Massa).0 -
I always thought boris should run for mayor again as I think he's more suited to it and even At his peak leading the party would be tough. But I guess with ambition and Cameron looking like he would struggle he had to try.0
-
Theresa May would shake things up as Out leader. She also looks conceivable, given her past coolness on the EU.0
-
Interesting. So for you, the money is actually not important. It's about "sovereignty". or more practically focussing political power in London.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foxinsox, if the IMF were trying to take away our sovereignty a piece at a time, I would. It isn't, so I don't.
0 -
What about the much-needed reform of the EU? It is, in so many ways, a basket case, yet instead of getting their house in order they want to plough ahead with further integration.Jonathan said:
Of course not, I'd welcome a govt that focussed on the real risks to the UK economy rather than a distracting referendum. The lack of bank reform is troubling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, you'd welcome British taxes propping up spendthrift Greeks?
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.
The only chances of this not happening are:
*) A referendum where the country votes out
*) The EU realising their problems.
Baking reform needs sorting out. So does the EU.0 -
Agree entirely, and completely unrelated to the fact that I have nearly a grand laying him as next Tory leader and next PM from when he was inexplicably close to evens for both positions. It's the biggest bet I have ever made, just can't ever see him in either position.foxinsoxuk said:
Boris has charisma, intelligence and ambition, but no loyalty or integrity.NickPalmer said:Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible. He's seemed quite pro-EU as London Mayor, but he's also seemed quite pro-immigration, whereas before he gave the opposite impression. Similarly, he's given some sceptic-sounding speeches lately on the EU as his ayoralty draws to a close.
My impression is that he adapts his views to his audience with a miasma of buffoonery to cover the switching - a kinder interpretation would be that he's simply been representing Londoners as they wish - and that he'd be perfectly willing to lead an Out campaign if he thought it would lead him to Number 10. And he probably really would change the potential outcome, whereas Lord X or MEP Y or businessman Z really would not.0 -
Mary Berry is on the case.JosiasJessop said:
What about the much-needed reform of the EU? It is, in so many ways, a basket case, yet instead of getting their house in order they want to plough ahead with further integration.Jonathan said:
Of course not, I'd welcome a govt that focussed on the real risks to the UK economy rather than a distracting referendum. The lack of bank reform is troubling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, you'd welcome British taxes propping up spendthrift Greeks?
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.
The only chances of this not happening are:
*) A referendum where the country votes out
*) The EU realising their problems.
Baking reform needs sorting out. So does the EU.0 -
Mr. Jonathan, I'd be quite happy fr a Yorkshire-based English Parliament
Money does matter. But it's not the only story in town. And for me, it is more about who governs us than anything else.
Mr. Antifrank, an interesting suggestion. I wonder if Hammond might want the job as well.0 -
This referendum leaves me cold.
A titanic battle between nationalists and bureaucrats.
Can you vote against both?0 -
I doubt the British will join the Euro until such time as it becomes non-disfunctional.JosiasJessop said:
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.0 -
The top isn’t, generally speaking. Woudn’t she have to leave her (semi) Cabinet job?edmundintokyo said:
It would improve her standing in the party, the grass-roots are BOO.OldKingCole said:
Won’t do anything which will damage her standing in the `Party. IMHO, anywayedmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
0 -
Mr. Jonathan, you make the desire for self-governance sound like a bad thing.
Worth mentioning that whilst there's obvious woe for the Conservatives (big split[s]) there's also the problem that Labour/SNP become identified solely with In, so that any more EU annoyances can be labelled leftist, and a future Conservative leader may be able to say "I wanted us out of this mess".0 -
Yes will win because the EU will do just enough to neuter the BOO side.. The arguments about right to a family life should have been sorted, neutering the BOO attack.
I will be voting IN come what may.0 -
This is the same Survation that actually binned a poll showing the Tories getting a majority during the election campaign?
Why is this company still in business? Why in the world would anybody take any notice of them?0 -
Mr. Root, how do you see the EU and UK relationship progressing in the next decade and more?
That's what's making me more inclined towards Out. The desire for a financial transaction tax hasn't gone away, the desire for ever closer union hasn't gone away, the madness of the eurozone hasn't gone away [quite the reverse, they want more integration]. I can't see how the direction of travel is compatible with the wish of the British electorate or the British national interest.0 -
If we vote In, it's quite likely that the same nutters who wanted us to join the Euro ten/fifteen years ago will say they have a mandate. And other EU countries (ref. Germany) would want us to join to share the pain.edmundintokyo said:
I doubt the British will join the Euro until such time as it becomes non-disfunctional.JosiasJessop said:
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.
The 'out' campaign will need to remind people of the Euro-fanaticists.0 -
Yes, I don't think she could serve under Cameron, because he'd be saying his "renegotiation" was the bee's knees and she'd be saying it was a bit rubbish.OldKingCole said:
The top isn’t, generally speaking. Woudn’t she have to leave her (semi) Cabinet job?edmundintokyo said:
It would improve her standing in the party, the grass-roots are BOO.OldKingCole said:
Won’t do anything which will damage her standing in the `Party. IMHO, anywayedmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
But in the mean time she'd be the de-facto faction leader of the large part of the Conservative Party that's currently having to make do with David Davis. That would probably be enough to get her into the run-off to succeed Cameron, and she'd be well placed to win the membership vote. Even if somebody else followed Cameron they'd probably want to give her a bigger job than she'd have had otherwise, to get her side of the party back in the tent.
And that's the worst-case scenario, which assumes "out" lose the referendum. If they win she could go directly to Number 10.
But the problem is, what if she jumps, then Boris or some other big beast jumps on top of her?0 -
A rather unfortunate typo. ;-)Jonathan said:
Mary Berry is on the case.JosiasJessop said:
What about the much-needed reform of the EU? It is, in so many ways, a basket case, yet instead of getting their house in order they want to plough ahead with further integration.Jonathan said:
Of course not, I'd welcome a govt that focussed on the real risks to the UK economy rather than a distracting referendum. The lack of bank reform is troubling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, you'd welcome British taxes propping up spendthrift Greeks?
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.
The only chances of this not happening are:
*) A referendum where the country votes out
*) The EU realising their problems.
Baking reform needs sorting out. So does the EU.0 -
Indeed. There would need to be something pretty darn amazing to offset that, and I struggle too what could do that, let alone if it could be achieved.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Root, how do you see the EU and UK relationship progressing in the next decade and more?
That's what's making me more inclined towards Out. The desire for a financial transaction tax hasn't gone away, the desire for ever closer union hasn't gone away, the madness of the eurozone hasn't gone away [quite the reverse, they want more integration]. I can't see how the direction of travel is compatible with the wish of the British electorate or the British national interest.0 -
Mr. Jessop, I agree. Some will seek to use 'In' to thrust ever more financial burden upon us, or to get us into the madness of the euro.0
-
The EU Ref.. I will be voting out..0
-
Kendall stilted and robotic on Marr. Rather surprised.0
-
You coming home then?richardDodd said:The EU Ref.. I will be voting out..
0 -
For a bunch of punters, it amazing how much rubbish based on total prejudiced speculation you all speak. Not least about the minds of the electorate.0
-
Elsewhere, some Labour politicians have noticed where the election was won and lost:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-did-well-among-urban-liberals-but-there-are-more-suburbanites-and-smalltown-voters-10301966.html0 -
I'm waiting to hear all the arguments but my default position is OUT and I honestly can't see myself voting for anything other than to leave the EU while we have the chance.richardDodd said:The EU Ref.. I will be voting out..
0 -
Mr. Flightpath, better to light a candle than curse the darkness. What's your view on the subject?0
-
Liz Kendall is avoiding every question being asked of her. This is why people hate politicians.0
-
Watching Kendall on Marr does anybody see her as PM in 2020 or having the gravitas to hold Cameron to account meanwhile? Just dreadful0
-
Jonathan...No..0
-
Yes but they would rather leave Italy first. But thanks for the self selecting poll.richardDodd said:I live in Northern Italy...every single one of my Italian friends and associates would vote to leave the EU if they were given the choice.. and they range from farmers, mechanics,teachers business men, bankers and a fair number of students.
0 -
Wonder if you'll have to pay for visas, permits to remain etc. Govts tend not to resist that stuff especially when they can make some money as well as a point.richardDodd said:Jonathan...No..
0 -
Ed Miliband refused to rule out joining the Eurozone within his premiership, implying he would do it if he was PM long enough. If you see how the result of the AV referndum has been used to claim the UK voted to keep FPTP over PR, its almost certain Labour and the minor left wing parties will use it to claim we have voted for full EU integration. It will take a very determined Conservative Party to resist that and campaign hard on the issue to stop Labour pulling another Gordon Brown when they are next in power.edmundintokyo said:
I doubt the British will join the Euro until such time as it becomes non-disfunctional.JosiasJessop said:
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.0 -
The Tory party splitting over Europe? What's not to like?edmundintokyo said:
Yes, I don't think she could serve under Cameron, because he'd be saying his "renegotiation" was the bee's knees and she'd be saying it was a bit rubbish.OldKingCole said:
The top isn’t, generally speaking. Woudn’t she have to leave her (semi) Cabinet job?edmundintokyo said:
It would improve her standing in the party, the grass-roots are BOO.OldKingCole said:
Won’t do anything which will damage her standing in the `Party. IMHO, anywayedmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
But in the mean time she'd be the de-facto faction leader of the large part of the Conservative Party that's currently having to make do with David Davis. That would probably be enough to get her into the run-off to succeed Cameron, and she'd be well placed to win the membership vote. Even if somebody else followed Cameron they'd probably want to give her a bigger job than she'd have had otherwise, to get her side of the party back in the tent.
And that's the worst-case scenario, which assumes "out" lose the referendum. If they win she could go directly to Number 10.
But the problem is, what if she jumps, then Boris or some other big beast jumps on top of her?0 -
I thought she was very poor. At one point I thought we were going to have a Paxman/Howard situation on our hands.. Marr asked her the same question, what? 4 times? 5? I'm not sure he got an answer out of her even then.blackburn63 said:Watching Kendall on Marr does anybody see her as PM in 2020 or having the gravitas to hold Cameron to account meanwhile? Just dreadful
What a difference from the confident and assured performance she gave to Andrew Neil after the election. But then that was all about platitudes and less about policy. One wonders if she's got a clear idea of what she wants to do in reality. At the moment it sounds like she wants to be vaguely more Blairite but doesn't know how to show it.
Also, I think she's been spooked by the various attacks on her from Cooper et al. I'm not sure she factored in the fact that this was going to be a tough fight.0 -
Mr. Foxinsox, a rather narrow view. Do you want us dragged further into a deranged ideological desire for ever closer union?0
-
A rather deranged and paranoid question.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foxinsox, a rather narrow view. Do you want us dragged further into a deranged ideological desire for ever closer union?
Yes, I would like to see the UK voting to be part of the EU, and being a more constructive partner.0 -
Whats deranged is a desire for a return to a Europe of nation states.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foxinsox, a rather narrow view. Do you want us dragged further into a deranged ideological desire for ever closer union?
0 -
The whole point of these negotiations is political union, that is, how we keep ourselves out of it. If we cannot secure some believable 'orbit' around the increasing monetary, fiscal and thus political union of the eurozone then we would be better off in the EEA. I appreciate even this would not stop the BOOAP. Nor would it stop the crass nativists.CD13 said:As an over-55, I could be convinced to stay very easily. We voted forty years ago to remain in the 'common market' and that probably hasn't changed. It's the assumption by some that by re-writing history and referring to the small print they can convince us we voted for something else entirely that really annoys.
If the Eurocrats behave by not mentioning the final solution - political union, and Cameron can make the tinsel look like golden 'no ifs.and no buts', I'm sure IN will win.
If not, it could get interesting.0 -
Flightpathl.. Not a poll ..the subject comes up in conversation quite frequently, they are fascinated by our approach to he EU, They seem to feel powerless and some have opined that they are in danger of losing their national identity.
Most of the ones that I know that have left the country have gone to Aus or The States.. my associate company is involved in getting them the essential language qualifications required in those places.0 -
Quite so. Then, wouldn't leading the "Out" campaign suit him very well?Jonathan said:
Boris' integrity is beyond question. He has consistently taken and promoted a pro Boris line in everything he does, whatever that might be.NickPalmer said:Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible.t.
His current predicament is to carve out a role in an unexpected majority situation.0 -
Mr. Foxinsox, paranoid?
You're aware of the eurozone? The desire for banking union within it? And then fiscal union? The desire by some for a Brussels-levied financial transaction tax which will affect the UK far more than any other nation? And the EU's fundamental desire for ever closer integration?
Which of the above points do you think are not the case?
Mr. Jonathan, we disagree entirely on that point. You cannot force nationhood by bureaucracy. A group of friendly nation-states has far better long term prospects than an unwanted, ideologically driven federation governed by a cabal of meddlesome eunuchs.0 -
Jonathan All of that is no problem.. Brits have lived on he continent of Europe for a very long time..0
-
You are calling the vast, vast majority of the British public deranged. A system of sovereign nation states has been highly successful across the globe, while an attempt to force political union has plunged the continent int9 economic crisis. If the EU is to prosper it must return to being an international community of nation states.Jonathan said:
Whats deranged is a desire for a return to a Europe of nation states.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foxinsox, a rather narrow view. Do you want us dragged further into a deranged ideological desire for ever closer union?
On another topic, Hammond is excellent on Marr. To the point, answers the question and with gravitas - the complete opposite of Kendall.0 -
Indeed, its an option. But going up against the PM is a high risk "all in" move.There might be something else out there. The FO perhaps.NickPalmer said:
Quite so. Then, wouldn't leading the "Out" campaign suit him very well?Jonathan said:
Boris' integrity is beyond question. He has consistently taken and promoted a pro Boris line in everything he does, whatever that might be.NickPalmer said:Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible.t.
His current predicament is to carve out a role in an unexpected majority situation.0 -
I think you miss my point about self selecting. But anyway, don't both these countries have control of their borders.richardDodd said:Flightpathl.. Not a poll ..the subject comes up in conversation quite frequently, they are fascinated by our approach to he EU, They seem to feel powerless and some have opined that they are in danger of losing their national identity.
Most of the ones that I know that have left the country have gone to Aus or The States.. my associate company is involved in getting them the essential language qualifications required in those places.
0 -
Mr. Jonathan, agree on the high risk suggestion, but it cuts both ways. High risk can mean great reward, and Boris is likely to have one decent shot at becoming leader (I know Ken Clarke stood many times, but he never got it).
That said, I don't think Boris will be voting Out.0 -
Nationalism proven bad.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Foxinsox, paranoid?
Mr. Jonathan, we disagree entirely on that point. You cannot force nationhood by bureaucracy. A group of friendly nation-states has far better long term prospects than an unwanted, ideologically driven federation governed by a cabal of meddlesome eunuchs.
Bureaucracy proven bad.
:-(0 -
Flightpath Yes they do have controls on heir borders..quite severe ones ..and a Language qualification is one of them. All of our students have to qualify using the Cambridge or Oxford systems which are recognised internationally and the exams are independently carried out by those organisations..0
-
If you are sleep walking you can light as many candles as you like.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flightpath, better to light a candle than curse the darkness. What's your view on the subject?
0 -
It leaves me cold too - though for somewhat different reasons. Assuming Cameron succeeds in his negotiations it'll be a choice between a watered down EU membership or no EU membership at all. The former is unappealing and the latter is unthinkable. I'd prefer further integration (with increased democratic reforms) or, at the very least, to keep things as they are now.Jonathan said:This referendum leaves me cold.
A titanic battle between nationalists and bureaucrats.
Can you vote against both?
0 -
Wow. Good luck with that one.Steven_Whaley said:
It leaves me cold too - though for somewhat different reasons. Assuming Cameron succeeds in his negotiations it'll be a choice between a watered down EU membership or no EU membership at all. The former is unappealing and the latter is unthinkable. I'd prefer further integration (with increased democratic reforms) or, at the very least, to keep things as they are now.Jonathan said:This referendum leaves me cold.
A titanic battle between nationalists and bureaucrats.
Can you vote against both?0 -
I have observed this dysfunctional organisation since Benelux pretty much. Quite simply the original question was /has changed so many times but never has anyone asked directly what we now think. An in vote would also force us towards the Euro and I know that will be refuted by the in group but it will just as the EEC evolved by stealth and as did the EU.JosiasJessop said:
If we vote In, it's quite likely that the same nutters who wanted us to join the Euro ten/fifteen years ago will say they have a mandate. And other EU countries (ref. Germany) would want us to join to share the pain.edmundintokyo said:
I doubt the British will join the Euro until such time as it becomes non-disfunctional.JosiasJessop said:
If we were not to have a referendum, we'd be dragged deeper into the EU. If we have a referendum and 'In' wins, we shall be dragged deeper in. That means that we will be dragged into a dysfunctional, not-fit-for-purpose EU and, later, Euro. The two-speed Europe is dead.
The 'out' campaign will need to remind people of the Euro-fanaticists.
The EU creates problems it does not solve, I objuct to its leaders being directly unaccountable to me at a ballot box ( sorry they are just not) and the quality majority voting just sidelines us depite being one of the biggest contributors. I cannot think of anything the EU and its unelected undemocratic corrupt politicians have done for us and Europe in particular. They have done Lots for themselves on the other hand.
They can also dictate who comes into our country after they under schengen dropped their collective guard. At the time when a humanitarian crisis erupts on the borders of the EU and in Greece in particular now is the time to guard the borders. Give protection to those that need it and weed out the rest, there are plenty of troublemakers there. Meanwhile France accuses us of creating the Calais crisis in their country???
I am not a UKipper but in my personal view we are better off out and away0 -
What's so difficult about English? Sepp Blatter speaks English. They 'control their own border's and you are making a mint out of helping them in. Teaching English is big business. In summer Oxford for one is full of students attending the English language colleges.richardDodd said:Flightpath Yes they do have controls on heir borders..quite severe ones ..and a Language qualification is one of them. All of our students have to qualify using the Cambridge or Oxford systems which are recognised internationally and the exams are independently carried out by those organisations..
0 -
Increased democratic reforms are not currently on offer, and certainly will not be without pressure from member countries.Steven_Whaley said:
It leaves me cold too - though for somewhat different reasons. Assuming Cameron succeeds in his negotiations it'll be a choice between a watered down EU membership or no EU membership at all. The former is unappealing and the latter is unthinkable. I'd prefer further integration (with increased democratic reforms) or, at the very least, to keep things as they are now.Jonathan said:This referendum leaves me cold.
A titanic battle between nationalists and bureaucrats.
Can you vote against both?
In that way the EU referendum here in the UK might be good for Europe: it might pressurise the bureaucrats to try to invoke some much-needed reforms.
And neither will the EU stay as it is, at least without disintegrating. And it's all due to the Euro.0 -
I think whatever the EU referendum result, if Cameron can hold the Tory party together that will likely go down as his greatest achievement. Already cracks are starting to appear, not only in the Tory party but the right wing MSM.foxinsoxuk said:
The Tory party splitting over Europe? What's not to like?edmundintokyo said:
Yes, I don't think she could serve under Cameron, because he'd be saying his "renegotiation" was the bee's knees and she'd be saying it was a bit rubbish.OldKingCole said:
The top isn’t, generally speaking. Woudn’t she have to leave her (semi) Cabinet job?edmundintokyo said:
It would improve her standing in the party, the grass-roots are BOO.OldKingCole said:
Won’t do anything which will damage her standing in the `Party. IMHO, anywayedmundintokyo said:Got it, Priti Patel.
But in the mean time she'd be the de-facto faction leader of the large part of the Conservative Party that's currently having to make do with David Davis. That would probably be enough to get her into the run-off to succeed Cameron, and she'd be well placed to win the membership vote. Even if somebody else followed Cameron they'd probably want to give her a bigger job than she'd have had otherwise, to get her side of the party back in the tent.
And that's the worst-case scenario, which assumes "out" lose the referendum. If they win she could go directly to Number 10.
But the problem is, what if she jumps, then Boris or some other big beast jumps on top of her?
Casting my eye over last nights thread I came across this post:
" We are just seeing the Scottish Nazi Party in their real colours. I see that the cultural purging of Scotland is also getting up a head of steam, with cricket being dropped by one of Scotland's most distinguished schools, Morrison's Academy. "
A little Englander speaks, I can live with the first insult, but blaming the SNP for purging cricket from the Morrison's curriculum is going to far. Anyway for anyone interested in why this distinguished public school is dropping cricket here's the background:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/11655837/Stumped-teachers-drop-cricket-due-to-complex-rules-and-wet-weather.html
0 -
Boris has written a book on Churchill. Just saying.foxinsoxuk said:
Boris has charisma, intelligence and ambition, but no loyalty or integrity.NickPalmer said:Boris? I don't get him at all, never have, but his positions seem utterly flexible. He's seemed quite pro-EU as London Mayor, but he's also seemed quite pro-immigration, whereas before he gave the opposite impression. Similarly, he's given some sceptic-sounding speeches lately on the EU as his ayoralty draws to a close.
My impression is that he adapts his views to his audience with a miasma of buffoonery to cover the switching - a kinder interpretation would be that he's simply been representing Londoners as they wish - and that he'd be perfectly willing to lead an Out campaign if he thought it would lead him to Number 10. And he probably really would change the potential outcome, whereas Lord X or MEP Y or businessman Z really would not.0 -
Flightpath.. They control,their own borders by accepting only those they require..e have students who are already qualified, Pharmacists, Doctors, and even a vet...all of them must have the highest level of proficiency in English if they wish to practice in those countries..and I personally am not making anything out of it ..
Many of those students in Oxford will be from European area countries..they are not learning English to speak it at home... they cant wait to leave the place..0 -
English is the best language in the world!Flightpathl said:
What's so difficult about English? Sepp Blatter speaks English. They 'control their own border's and you are making a mint out of helping them in. Teaching English is big business. In summer Oxford for one is full of students attending the English language colleges.richardDodd said:Flightpath Yes they do have controls on heir borders..quite severe ones ..and a Language qualification is one of them. All of our students have to qualify using the Cambridge or Oxford systems which are recognised internationally and the exams are independently carried out by those organisations..
Even the EU has adopted English as an official language
0 -
The UK are the main opposition to a more democratic EU, so it's not obvious how them having a referendum on it will help, unless they actually leave and stop trying to protect the old unaccountable-head-of-government-stitch-up model.JosiasJessop said:
Increased democratic reforms are not currently on offer, and certainly will not be without pressure from member countries.Steven_Whaley said:
It leaves me cold too - though for somewhat different reasons. Assuming Cameron succeeds in his negotiations it'll be a choice between a watered down EU membership or no EU membership at all. The former is unappealing and the latter is unthinkable. I'd prefer further integration (with increased democratic reforms) or, at the very least, to keep things as they are now.Jonathan said:This referendum leaves me cold.
A titanic battle between nationalists and bureaucrats.
Can you vote against both?
In that way the EU referendum here in the UK might be good for Europe: it might pressurise the bureaucrats to try to invoke some much-needed reforms.
And neither will the EU stay as it is, at least without disintegrating. And it's all due to the Euro.0 -
Do you really think the EU's intentions are truly to move towards further democracy?edmundintokyo said:
The UK are the main opposition to a more democratic EU, so it's not obvious how them having a referendum on it will help, unless they actually leave and stop trying to protect the old unaccountable-head-of-government-stitch-up model.JosiasJessop said:
Increased democratic reforms are not currently on offer, and certainly will not be without pressure from member countries.Steven_Whaley said:
It leaves me cold too - though for somewhat different reasons. Assuming Cameron succeeds in his negotiations it'll be a choice between a watered down EU membership or no EU membership at all. The former is unappealing and the latter is unthinkable. I'd prefer further integration (with increased democratic reforms) or, at the very least, to keep things as they are now.Jonathan said:This referendum leaves me cold.
A titanic battle between nationalists and bureaucrats.
Can you vote against both?
In that way the EU referendum here in the UK might be good for Europe: it might pressurise the bureaucrats to try to invoke some much-needed reforms.
And neither will the EU stay as it is, at least without disintegrating. And it's all due to the Euro.
Really?0
