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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LabourList “poll” shows Burnham well ahead with Kendall in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LabourList “poll” shows Burnham well ahead with Kendall in strong 2nd place
As the Labour Party leadership campaign gathers pace, we are gradually building a picture of what the contest will look like. Right now, it seems that there are three serious candidates that can win, with a maximum of four likely to take part.
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Wow. Yvette, touted for so long as the shoe-in candidate. Now fourth behind a Butcher, a Tory, and "none of the above".
She has the momentum.
Burnham will be seen as Ed mark 2 - similar policies, backed by the Unions.
A lot of the electorate are going to be torn - do they vote for who they WANT (Burnham) or who they HAVE to vote for (Kendall).
It's a bit like what Kellner said re the GE - some people wanted to vote Lab but when it came to the crunch they couldn't. This will be the same - waverers will think that if they want Lab to win in 2020 they have to vote Kendall.
Should be fun. If she's built up a solid impression as a credible candidate, she might even manage that without losing the Tory comments about her being the most suitable for Labour.
Ed Miliband(!) 61
Keir Starmer 51
Dan Jarvis 49
Tristram Hunt 40
John McDonnell 33
Lisa Nandy 31
plus a few bits'n'bobs.
So, not particularly left-wing, and no one alternative candidate attracting significant support.
It's looking like 3 runners.
Good on Liz Kendall, she's the only candidate saying anything about the future direction of the party and seems to be of the centre ground where elections are won.
The question for her now is can the party stop taking to themselves and dare to go with a leader that appeals to more than the Labour core vote, to those that voted Tory and even UKIP in the past two elections? Over to you, Labour MPs...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32852568
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14kV5ayrHYc3c2snY5aI4vuhLG-98NOD-3aNG2LQxLvo/edit#gid=0
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
Andy Burnham: 1.98 (just short of evens)
Yvette Cooper: 6.00 (5/1)
Liz Kendall: 4.30 (100/30)
Andy Burnham may be favourite, but surely for him to be odds on this early is just too short?
She has set out a distinctive moderniser stall, but she also has made a number of pro-union statements. It will be an interesting campaign and she is certainly going down well in certain quarters. She had the lobby fawning over her last week.
The electorate is an unknown quantity, I do not think there has been an election where Labour supporters can buy a vote for £3 (and a whole lot of spam no doubt!). It is an interesting way of acquiring names for future contacts...
The Hustings on BBC 2 on 17 June in Nuneaton will be interesting indeed.
Getting a surprise lesson in Scottish scandals today, thanks to my apparent Twitter resemblance to @acarmichaelmp
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/064696c4-ffea-11e4-bc30-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3aVwCWbMX
I think the MSM should be quizzing Rennie and even Clegg about what they knew when. As Rennie was straight on this in the media etc, my suspicion is that Rennie was in the loop, so should be considering his position.
But there is no way to make him go.
I would therefore expect two weeks of intense pressure; two months of mild pressure; six month of sporadic news stories... and that will be about it.
I suspect, however, that he will not be the Liberal Democrat candidate for Orkney and Shetland in 2020.
Blair was also arguably continuity Major for his first term (without the EU splits)
"I suspect, however, that he will not be the Liberal Democrat candidate for Orkney and Shetland in 2020"
Indeed. A number of PBers have advanced the view in the past that Shetland would never support the SNP as they supposedly did not regard themselves as Scottish.
Perhaps they should recognise that as just another unionist myth-some reports even suggest that the SNP actually won in Shetland, and that it was Orkney that saved Carmichael, though his majority was slashed to 800 or so.
Many of his constituents will be very disappointed in him in a seat where personal respect for the MP is more important than in many another place, and if he hangs on he will have to endure a much diminished respect from the islanders.
I wonder how often those of us who are members of a particular Party hear or become aware of something one of the senior members of the party has done and simply wonder why we bother being members at all.
As an LD, I'm having one of those moments now. Carmichael has behaved beyond stupidity - I would ask what he was thinking of but I can't determine any rational thought process at work here. As to whether it had any impact, I doubt it frankly but that's not the point.
He has disrespected the Party and Nicola Sturgeon and the French ambassador and not necessarily in that order. After the antics of Chris Huhne, Mike Hancock and David Laws I wonder if a clear out of the formerly great and good is long overdue. Whether or not the LDs become a politically significant force again is one question but that we should do led by figures of personal and political integrity is one that is for me a no-brainer.
We cannot afford blunders of this magnitude again - I know it's not what will happen but Carmichael should resign and publicly apologise - if the cost of that is the SNP gaining another seat and wiping out the LDs in Scotland that's a heavy price and one which integrity demands the party pays for the misdemeanour of one man.
What should happen is that both Tim Farron and Norman Lamb be pressed for their view. It could be quite revealing.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUKPol/status/601703179663888384
At 3:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z79bDyfZFI
I think that Rennie et al are hoping this is played out by Tuesday. Notable that they are dropping this on a similar timescale to the original smear attempt - on the eve of a holiday weekend.
Well said.
Calum
Did this report really cost £1.4 million? Where was that reported?
I think he is toast particularly because he a year or so back hinted at a retirement from politics. Why would he want to stay under these certain circumstances of being generally disregarded because of his conduct?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-447550/Sleazebuster-MPs-regret-bed-romp-teenage-girls.html
The MP who triggered the cash-for-honours probe has apologised to his family for cheating on his pregnant wife with two teenage girls.
Angus MacNeil described the tryst, just weeks before his wife gave birth, as "wrong and stupid".
The Scottish National Party MP shot to national prominence after making the police complaint that launched the cash-for-honours probe at Westminster.
But his reputation as a "sleazebuster" was in tatters last night after it emerged that he drunkenly kissed and fondled the girls in a hotel room.
If the Liberals don't at least withdraw the whip then I cannot see any way for Scott and McArthur to hang on to their seats. At least leaving him as an Independent will avoid further association with him (it almost worked with Joyce where the later transgressions saw the press label him as an Independent more often than ex-Labour MP).
Having said that, I'm not sure that even taking action will be enough, perhaps they will hold Orkney but as things stand they are not looking good for List seats never mind Constituencies.
#LibDemFightback immediately followed by serious #LibDemSetback.
Their only hope now is that Jo Grimond is spinning so fast in his grave he actually drills his way out back to the surface to take Carmichael's place.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/24/nicola-sturgeon-apologises-fraudster-letter
Scotland's deputy first minister appeared to have salvaged her political career after she apologised today for making significant errors of judgment in her defence of a twice-convicted fraudster.
Nicola Sturgeon told MSPs she was sorry for lobbying a court to give a constituent, Abdul Rauf, a non-custodial sentence after he admitted an £80,000 benefits fraud, and for calling his frauds, which included stealing £60,000 in pensions and benefit cheques more than 15 years ago, "mistakes".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9694513/Alex-Salmond-accused-of-wind-farm-cover-up.html
Best case scenario for LDs - Jo Swinson stands and wins. Save the seat and get a female MP who also happens to be pretty good.
Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of Brexit
News of undercover project emerges after Bank staff accidentally email details to the Guardian including PR notes on how to deny its existence
Bank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.
The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.
According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle Street must be kept in the dark about the work underway, which has been dubbed Project Bookend.
http://bit.ly/1F6vbM6
"The SNP won 37% in Orkney, one of their lowest scores in Scotland, their was already some evidence of tactical voting, eg the Tory vote fell slightly, but at 8.9% in 3rd still more to squeeze. In fact only 32% in Orkney voted for Independence, again 13% lower than Scotland as a whole (even lower than the 33% in the Borders) and the lowest in Scotland, Shetland was only a little higher at 36% "
So what? A number of people foolishly claimed that in the event of Scotland voting "Yes" , Shetland would have opted out of Scotland. An opinion poll, with over 80% denying that, proved the view that Shetland did not consider itself Scottish, was indeed the unionist myth to which I referred..
Incidentally, UKIP experienced the only fall in its vote in the whole of Britain in Orkney and Shetland in GE2015 cp. GE2010.
As for tactical voting, why should Tories vote for the LDs now? They're not in coalition any more. LDs are the enemy.
I think if you are going to attack Salmond and Sturgeon you should do rather better than cite the Scottish apendage of the Daily Telegraph, whose Scottish editor admitted in his "book" that he supressed stories to attack the NATS!
In other words find a newspaper to quote not the Scottish Torygraph which, unlike its London edition, doesn't even put up much of a pretence of being anything other than a propaganda sheet - and a very unsuccessful one at that!
If only life was so easy for every whistleblower/leaker who wanted to send something to the Press! I imagine Carmichael will be wondering why he didn't think of that.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8510133.stm
Scotland's deputy first minister is facing calls to resign after writing a letter in support of a man who could be jailed for benefit fraud.
8:32PM
I obviously underated just how low you like to stoop, which is obvious from your earlier post.
The very obvious difference between this case and the one in 2005 or a minor sex story which didn't seem to invlove much (if any) sex is that the MP in question has since stood for election and been re-elected overwhelmingly on two occasions by his god fearing constituents.
In contrast Carmichael kept his behaviour quiet indeed lied about it so that his constituents were not able to judge his behaviour. They should now have that opportunity.
Yanks are much harder on this sort of stuff. So God knows what the average American thinks of him.
And the rather obvious difference between the Carmichael case and the then Deputy First Minister is that she has since stood successfully for election and been returned overwhelmingly, has been elected First Minister and judged the most successful poltician across the UK in the recent election which returned 56 MPs out of a possible 59 for her party.
When will his constituents get the chance to judge Mr Carmichael?
You should stand for election to see how many people appreciate your obviously unblemished life and higher than thou standards.
In the meantime Carmichael should submit himself to the judgement of his constituents who he deliberately lied to as he attempted to smear the First Minister.
MacNeil was stupid but frankly, it's irrelevant to his ability to be an MP. Sturgeon appears to have been fooled by a con artist and liar while conducting constituency business. Not a good thing but not the worst crime in the world I would expect she learned about the danger of being so credulous when dealing with the public.
Neither are cases of malfeasance and neither are even remotely similar. But worse, they are long standing known histories where the electorate has already judged and they don't agree with you. That seems to be the core of the problem, you can't stand that no-one shares your prejudiced, anti-Scottish worldview.
There are a few unanswered questions, not least is whether the leaked memo is an accurate description of Ms Sturgeons conversation with the French diplomat. Did the FM get what she wanted with a Conservative government? She certainly seemed to get on with him very happily at the recent face to face meetings.
Better still, why is there a senior pollster writing a lengthy thread about a voodoo poll?
The FM and the French Ambassador and the French Consul all confirmed that it was never said. The memo itself said that the claim was highly unlikely.
That's easy, 3 letter word starts with S and ends with P.