I think the biggest difference from memory between the pre-election polls and this poll is the figure for 55+ voters. The Tories have always had a lead with this group but rarely 23 points
Heh. What's his twitter account, again? Is he still writhing in pain? Nice to see Osborne being portrayed as an actual 'master strategist'. isn't it...
Ukip was plunged into a fresh crisis last night as it faced axing half its staff because of a funding shortage.
The party had expected to cash in on the four million votes it got at the general election with £3.3million of public money by 2020.
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
Interesting piece of research shows banning phone in schools increases performance.
"Not surprising" you might say. True, perhaps, but this work allows bans to be put in place with some sound, scientific backing. The most interesting finding was that the lowest achieving quartile benefitted the most, while the top quartile was [statistically] unaffected by the ban.
Good for Carswell for sticking to his principles Plato.
Though we're now well past peak Kipper. The referendum happening is shooting their fox, plus now they're not the sole protest party of opposition anymore. I'd be amazed if UKIP don't poll less votes in 2020 than 2015.
The main protest party being in government, the BNP totally collapsing, the opposition refusing an EU referendum ... 2015 was a perfect storm for UKIP and they failed to capitalise.
Direction of country - net 'right': England: +15 Scotland: -14
Direction of Economy - net 'improving': England: +38 Scotland: -12
The latest increases in unemployment in Scotland suggest that Scots are right to be worried about the mess the SNP are making of governing. Especially since the unemployment rate used to be lower in Scotland than England but is now the reverse.,
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
Whatever one may think of Mr Carswell and his defection, he has proven to be an honest and principled man of moral values and independent thought, no matter which party he represents. Politics needs a lot more like him.
I am sceptical about such polls - they always seem to suggest to me that all Labour needs to do is square the pensioners, then it's home and dry - but they do provide useful indicators.
The Tories have a long term problem with home ownership, IMHO. Unless they ramp this up for the under 35s now, they could have a big problem in 20 years time.
Not everyone will inherit a nice big pad, or be happy to wait for it.
Good for Carswell for sticking to his principles Plato.
Though we're now well past peak Kipper. The referendum happening is shooting their fox, plus now they're not the sole protest party of opposition anymore. I'd be amazed if UKIP don't poll less votes in 2020 than 2015.
The main protest party being in government, the BNP totally collapsing, the opposition refusing an EU referendum ... 2015 was a perfect storm for UKIP and they failed to capitalise.
Idiot ukip. Their attempted smash and grab to misuse short money led to them being pressed into refusing it altogether. Carswell just wanted the realistic amount for proper use.
Cameron is today once again claiming he can renegotiate the principle that member states cannot discriminate between their nationals and EU citizens in respect of the provision of in work benefits. This is plainly contrary to articles 18 & 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which he does not have a cat in hell's chance of renegotiating.
I am sceptical about such polls - they always seem to suggest to me that all Labour needs to do is square the pensioners, then it's home and dry - but they do provide useful indicators.
The Tories have a long term problem with home ownership, IMHO. Unless they ramp this up for the under 35s now, they could have a big problem in 20 years time.
Not everyone will inherit a nice big pad, or be happy to wait for it.
At least the Tories have no excuse to welch on IHT reforms in the manifesto now !
The old rules were just makework for lawyers and tax accountants which benefited the richest at the expense of the slightly less rich.
"Formal study" is clearly still a major route in for unofficial economic migrants.
But, if I'm honest, I'm increasingly sceptical of the government's (any government's) ability to control immigration. It seems that no matter what they do they don't seem able to meaningfully affect the numbers.
Direction of country - net 'right': England: +15 Scotland: -14
Direction of Economy - net 'improving': England: +38 Scotland: -12
The latest increases in unemployment in Scotland suggest that Scots are right to be worried about the mess the SNP are making of governing. Especially since the unemployment rate used to be lower in Scotland than England but is now the reverse.,
On the previous thread, I've done a bit of research. Of the 49 seats that the Lib Dems lost on 7 May, 10 had MPs who retired before the election and a further MP had been expelled from the party. Five of the ousted MPs are now retiring from politics and a further three who have not yet made their plans known will be 68 or older by 2020. Quite a lot of others have said that they are taking time out or reviewing their options (Duncan Hames has commented on his wife's behalf as well as his own - brave man). Many have made no public statement on their future at all that I have located.
I have so far found only five of the ousted Lib Dem MPs who have unambiguously stated publicly that they are going to remain active in politics. I expect this number will rise in due course. But unless these numbers rise sharply, the Lib Dems are looking to lose a lot of incumbency-related votes before they even get started in 2020.
Cameron is today once again claiming he can renegotiate the principle that member states cannot discriminate between their nationals and EU citizens in respect of the provision of in work benefits. This is plainly contrary to articles 18 & 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which he does not have a cat in hell's chance of renegotiating.
Nonsense, it's probably the easiest of all the points he's trying to negotiate on, to the extent that it's almost a no-brainer that he'll succeed. Not only is it something which can be conceded at no significant cost to any other member state, it's even something which many of them would themselves like to tighten up on.
If he gets only one significant concession, this will be it.
Direction of country - net 'right': England: +15 Scotland: -14
Direction of Economy - net 'improving': England: +38 Scotland: -12
The latest increases in unemployment in Scotland suggest that Scots are right to be worried about the mess the SNP are making of governing. Especially since the unemployment rate used to be lower in Scotland than England but is now the reverse.,
The employment rate is still higher in Scotland than it is in England.
That the unemployment rate is also higher is one of those mysteries of the universe.
Ukip was plunged into a fresh crisis last night as it faced axing half its staff because of a funding shortage.
The party had expected to cash in on the four million votes it got at the general election with £3.3million of public money by 2020.
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
The Joker continues to drive his Joke Party into the ground. After yesterdays humiliation in the European Parliament, it's ever more obvious that he's a busted flush.
note that study is not long term. Many immigrants are students who should leave after study. So work is massively the cause. Let's not forget the hundreds of thousands of Brits who move to the EU for work and retirement. Proper free movement is good, but it needs reform. The rise in prosperity in the eastern block will limit the causes of immigration in the future.
Cameron is today once again claiming he can renegotiate the principle that member states cannot discriminate between their nationals and EU citizens in respect of the provision of in work benefits. This is plainly contrary to articles 18 & 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which he does not have a cat in hell's chance of renegotiating.
Nonsense, it's probably the easiest of all the points he's trying to negotiate on, to the extent that it's almost a no-brainer that he'll succeed. Not only is it something which can be conceded at no significant cost to any other member state, it's even something which many of them would themselves like to tighten up on.
If he gets only one significant concession, this will be it.
So why is May banging on about wanting to be able to prosecute people who are here illegally and working? Never mind prosecuting them - just deport them. Am I missing something here?
So why is May banging on about wanting to be able to prosecute people who are here illegally and working? Never mind prosecuting them - just deport them. Am I missing something here?
Relieve them of their valuables, then send them home. What's not to like?
It would be interesting to see some in depth research and surveys into immigration and immigrants, in order to assist more informed policy making.
Non-EU numbers in particular need a lot of breaking down. It would be good to see country of origin, education and skills levels, social class, even job titles of these.
If the economy will supported and grown by certain types of immigrants then these numbers need to be excluded from targets - for example I don't care how many 40% tax payers or holders of higher degrees come here - they will undoubtedly add more vale to the country than they take away. Ditto those coming on investor visas.
Why we should be importing any unskilled labourers, taxi drivers and the like is open to debate, this the the immigration we need to control while there are a couple of million of our own unemployed.
Only a week ago he wrote an article claiming that Cameron's victory had nothing to do with the modernisers and was actually due to the right-wing measures in the manifesto:
Oh, indeed. But a constructive and consistent one, and not destructive attacks from its own side barely two weeks in just because he feels no one listens to him and takes him seriously.
Only a week ago he wrote an article claiming that Cameron's victory had nothing to do with the modernisers and was actually due to the right-wing measures in the manifesto:
Only a week ago he wrote an article claiming that Cameron's victory had nothing to do with the modernisers and was actually due to the right-wing measures in the manifesto:
Nonsense, it's probably the easiest of all the points he's trying to negotiate on, to the extent that it's almost a no-brainer that he'll succeed. Not only is it something which can be conceded at no significant cost to any other member state, it's even something which many of them would themselves like to tighten up on.
If he gets only one significant concession, this will be it.
It would require a treaty change, and for that reason, it is not going to happen. Perhaps he might get a qualified majority in the council to amend the relevant secondary legislation on this subject, but then he would be gambling on the Court of Justice holding that it would be compatible with the Treaties, which is most unlikely.
Ukip was plunged into a fresh crisis last night as it faced axing half its staff because of a funding shortage.
The party had expected to cash in on the four million votes it got at the general election with £3.3million of public money by 2020.
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
The Joker continues to drive his Joke Party into the ground. After yesterdays humiliation in the European Parliament, it's ever more obvious that he's a busted flush.
So are the tories on immigration,remember when labour were in power and the tories criticism of them.
At least the humiliation today is for Cameron and his useless pledge of getting immigration down to tens of thousands - laughable.
What I dislike most about Mr Tim is that he's always complaining - I happen to have a high opinion of IDS now [a terrible leader] and have a soft spot for the Christian side of the Tories, as well as the Methodist traditions of Old Labour.
What Mr Tim wants is his ego in charge - and his carping just appears very bitter and spoiled childlike. He may have some quite good points, but they're lost in the personal bilge about everyone he disapproves of.
When a commentator is handed a bully-pulpit of Comment Editor as he has in The Times, I think it's a poor decision by the Managing Ed.
Only a week ago he wrote an article claiming that Cameron's victory had nothing to do with the modernisers and was actually due to the right-wing measures in the manifesto:
It would require a treaty change, and for that reason, it is not going to happen. Perhaps he might get a qualified majority in the council to amend the relevant secondary legislation on this subject, but then he would be gambling on the Court of Justice holding that it would be compatible with the Treaties, which is most unlikely.
You're far too legalistic abut this. This is the EU - they are absolute masters of the art of finding ways of fudging the legal niceties in order to implement whatever the politics requires. In the exceptionally tricky case of Northern Cyprus they even managed the remarkable feat of having territory which is simultaneously in the EU and not in the EU. Fiddling up something on entitlement to benefits - which no-one of importance much cares about - is child's play in comparison.
At the risk of irking cyclefree, another good article in the FT, this time about Britain's renegotiation with the EU and lessons to be learned from Syriza's experiences:
Chris Giles overstates his case - it is possible to push harder without gratuitously insulting everyone you're negotiating with. And I think he underestimates the willingness in practice to keep Britain in the EU - losing Britain would be a hammer blow to the EU's credibility. But there are certainly points in here that the British government should be mindful of:
"After the financial crisis, everyone knew the dangers of financial contagion. And, in capitals as far apart as Madrid and Dublin, moderates today see political contagion as just as dangerous as the financial kind. EU concessions to extremes in one country simply encourage the ejection of centrist governments in others. This fear of moral hazard has motivated Spain’s hardline stance in talks with Greece, and it appears to be working. The popularity of Podemos, the Spanish leftwing populists until recently riding high in the polls, is sinking fast.
The French stance towards Britain’s EU renegotiation will follow the same script. Granting the UK additional domestic rights without corresponding obligations looks like a terrible deal in Paris, where the mainstream left and right are facing a difficult battle against the anti-EU National Front in the run-up to the 2017 presidential election."
"No one wants Britain to leave; but the alternative of British membership of the club without playing by the rules is worse."
Mirror group have made payouts today to just eight hacking victims, totaling £1.2 million.
This could prove pretty costly - aren't there still many more court claims pending?
I would be the last to defend the newspapers' tortious conduct, but the quantum of damages awarded against them in these cases is eye watering. Compare the damages you would receive if you had lost an arm as a result of another tortfeasor's negligence...
"No one wants Britain to leave; but the alternative of British membership of the club without playing by the rules is worse."
A deal needs to look like a deal.
Yes, and for that reason this will be portrayed not simply as changes in the rules to benefit Britain, but as part of a package of reforms which benefit the whole EU.
Incidentally some wise words from Osborne:
Osborne went on to warn against rushing to judgment on how the reform talks with other European countries are advancing, predicting intense media scrutiny of the process.
"I'd advise everyone to take all this coverage with a large pinch of salt. The real negotiations will be carried out at the highest level and in private," he added.
I would be the last to defend the newspapers' tortious conduct, but the quantum of damages awarded against them in these cases is eye watering. Compare the damages you would receive if you had lost an arm as a result of another tortfeasor's negligence...
Yes, it is completely insane. The courts have lost all sense of proportion.
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
Whatever one may think of Mr Carswell and his defection, he has proven to be an honest and principled man of moral values and independent thought, no matter which party he represents. Politics needs a lot more like him.
Yes, one may disagree with his policies but he can show the UKIP MEPs and many MPs of all parties how they should behave when it comes to public money. Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
So why is May banging on about wanting to be able to prosecute people who are here illegally and working? Never mind prosecuting them - just deport them. Am I missing something here?
Maybe it is easier to deport someone if they have committed a crime.
You're far too legalistic abut this. This is the EU - they are absolute masters of the art of finding ways of fudging the legal niceties in order to implement whatever the politics requires. In the exceptionally tricky case of Northern Cyprus they even managed the remarkable feat of having territory which is simultaneously in the EU and not in the EU. Fiddling up something on entitlement to benefits - which no-one of importance much cares about - is child's play in comparison.
Certainly, the EU institutions have been masters at evading or circumventing their own rules, even those ex facie the Treaties, and are usually supported by a complaisant Court of Justice when they do so. Whether this would hold if the member states attempted a political fix that was actively anti-integrationist is far less clear.
“It has never been clearer that the UK borders are open to all whenever, wherever and however they want to come. The government has lost all control. The ONS report that 285,000 people came to work in the UK work last year. That is a city the size of Nottingham, which has nearly a 100 schools, 60 GP surgeries and several hospitals. Britain needs to provide the equivalent just to keep up with the workers arriving and this illustrates clearly the strain mass migration is putting on our public services.
At the risk of irking cyclefree, another good article in the FT, this time about Britain's renegotiation with the EU and lessons to be learned from Syriza's experiences:
Chris Giles overstates his case - it is possible to push harder without gratuitously insulting everyone you're negotiating with. And I think he underestimates the willingness in practice to keep Britain in the EU - losing Britain would be a hammer blow to the EU's credibility. But there are certainly points in here that the British government should be mindful of:
"After the financial crisis, everyone knew the dangers of financial contagion. And, in capitals as far apart as Madrid and Dublin, moderates today see political contagion as just as dangerous as the financial kind. EU concessions to extremes in one country simply encourage the ejection of centrist governments in others. This fear of moral hazard has motivated Spain’s hardline stance in talks with Greece, and it appears to be working. The popularity of Podemos, the Spanish leftwing populists until recently riding high in the polls, is sinking fast.
The French stance towards Britain’s EU renegotiation will follow the same script. Granting the UK additional domestic rights without corresponding obligations looks like a terrible deal in Paris, where the mainstream left and right are facing a difficult battle against the anti-EU National Front in the run-up to the 2017 presidential election."
"No one wants Britain to leave; but the alternative of British membership of the club without playing by the rules is worse."
A deal needs to look like a deal.
The deal is that the EU retains its international credibility and weight, shows the world it can adapt to stay relevant, keeps the large financial net contribution the UK makes to it, and liberates the eurozone to integrate further unhindered by the UK.
If they don't want the UK to leave, they need to offer something serious on migration IMHO.
I would be the last to defend the newspapers' tortious conduct, but the quantum of damages awarded against them in these cases is eye watering. Compare the damages you would receive if you had lost an arm as a result of another tortfeasor's negligence...
Yes, it is completely insane. The courts have lost all sense of proportion.
Sometimes the courts look like a glorified circus where well off people just hand money to one another.
I would be the last to defend the newspapers' tortious conduct, but the quantum of damages awarded against them in these cases is eye watering. Compare the damages you would receive if you had lost an arm as a result of another tortfeasor's negligence...
Had to google the word 'Tortfeasor' but quite agree Mr LiMT, the figures are quite ridiculous.
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
Whatever one may think of Mr Carswell and his defection, he has proven to be an honest and principled man of moral values and independent thought, no matter which party he represents. Politics needs a lot more like him.
Yes, one may disagree with his policies but he can show the UKIP MEPs and many MPs of all parties how they should behave when it comes to public money. Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
What a lot of sanctimonious claptrap! Carswell is a liability that UKIP cannot afford. If he want's to appear godlike he should join the church.
Yes, it is completely insane. The courts have lost all sense of proportion.
This quantum of damages is beginning to resemble libel damages awarded by juries in the 1990s. The Court of Appeal eventually instructed trial judges to inform juries of the conventional compensatory scales of damages awarded in personal injury actions, not for a precise correlation but as a check on the reasonableness of their proposed award (John v MGN Ltd [1997] QB 586). But it it the judges themselves who are awarding six figure payouts in these privacy cases. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If you want to get net migration figures down in Britain, the rest of the EU's economic performance needs to improve. I don't see any other way of achieving a reduction in migration at present that wouldn't be highly damaging to the British economy.
It'll smile and nod and make the right noises, but the Brussels express only chugs in one direction.
We should leave and the vile organisation ought to be dismantled. It will end, and I'm reasonably confident it'll do so in my lifetime. That can be an orderly, agreed process or a chaotic disintegration leading to widespread civil strife and possible even warfare.
There are - as I've pointed out - four fundamental "states" a country can be in:
1. In the Eurozone 2. In the EU, but not in the Eurozone 3. In EFTA/the EEA, but not in the EU 4. Having our own trade treaties with the EU/EFTA
(2) is the most troubled, because the EU was built on the foundation of "ever closer union". Speaking of "two speed" misses the point, because it assumes all are heading in the same direction. I think there is a very real possibility that (2) should be eliminated, or merged into (3) and called something like "associate EU member".
The Eurozone - whether it lives or dies in the long-run - is probably going to integrate further in the medium term. Eurobonds of some description will come into being. There will be more EU oversight of individual countries' budgets. And so on, and so forth.
These things clearly do not apply to those members of the EU who are not members of the Eurozone and who are extremely unlikely to join. (We'll start with the UK, Sweden and Denmark.)
What would Associate EU member look like? 1. Part of the common free trade area, and respecting the four "fundamental freedoms" of the EU 2. Not a benificiary (or otherwise) of EU regional spending, and not a member of CAP 3. Makes a contribution to the upkeep of the EU, but one on a Swiss or Norwegian model 4. Allow the EU to negotiate bumper trade agreements on its behalf (as in the TTIP) 5. Observer status on various councils
I think this is something that would be interesting to the Brits, would satisfy much of business, and would recognise that we are not on a path to "ever closer union". It would allow the remaining Eurozone countries to integrate further without having to be in permanent negotiation with the non-EZ countries.
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
Whatever one may think of Mr Carswell and his defection, he has proven to be an honest and principled man of moral values and independent thought, no matter which party he represents. Politics needs a lot more like him.
Yes, one may disagree with his policies but he can show the UKIP MEPs and many MPs of all parties how they should behave when it comes to public money. Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
Alternatively, Carswell is a prat whose declining of the Short money means less effective representation of the views of those who voted Ukip across the country. But I suppose most defectors have more than their fair share of egotism.
If you want to get net migration figures down in Britain, the rest of the EU's economic performance needs to improve. I don't see any other way of achieving a reduction in migration at present that wouldn't be highly damaging to the British economy.
I think that's correct.
The same goes for the desperate people trying to cross the Mediterranean in boats. Their countries need to be stable, and persecution and war-zone free.
If you want to get net migration figures down in Britain, the rest of the EU's economic performance needs to improve. I don't see any other way of achieving a reduction in migration at present that wouldn't be highly damaging to the British economy.
Well, the good news is that the UK is not going to be the fastest growing large country in the EU in 2015. Spain will be number one (3.5%), we'll be second (2.8%), Germany will be third (2.5%). It's possible that both France and Italy will end up doing north of 1.5% this year, which would be a dramatic improvement.
It'll smile and nod and make the right noises, but the Brussels express only chugs in one direction.
We should leave and the vile organisation ought to be dismantled. It will end, and I'm reasonably confident it'll do so in my lifetime. That can be an orderly, agreed process or a chaotic disintegration leading to widespread civil strife and possible even warfare.
I can't see any circumstances where I'd vote to stay, because I take issue with one of the EU's fundamental freedoms, which I view as fundamentalist.
For as long as the UK remains in the EU with that in place, it will act as a migration pressure valve for up to 500m people throughout the rest of the Union whenever it is experiencing economic problems. I expect this to happen regularly and be exacerbated by the fact that we'll almost always be economically out of step with the eurozone.
The 3 NEC members appointed to London Mayoral selection longlisting/shortlisting committee are Ellie Reeves, Andy Kerr of CWU and Keith Vaz. They will be joined by 3 people from London Regional Board
It'll smile and nod and make the right noises, but the Brussels express only chugs in one direction.
We should leave and the vile organisation ought to be dismantled. It will end, and I'm reasonably confident it'll do so in my lifetime. That can be an orderly, agreed process or a chaotic disintegration leading to widespread civil strife and possible even warfare.
I can't see any circumstances where I'd vote to stay, because I take issue with one of the EU's fundamental freedoms, which I view as fundamentalist.
For as long as the UK remains in the EU with that in place, it will act as a migration pressure valve for up to 500m people throughout the rest of the Union whenever it is experiencing economic problems. I expect this to happen regularly and be exacerbated by the fact that we'll almost always be economically out of step with the eurozone.
Does this mean you would also oppose EFTA/EEA membership?
Tom Newton Dunn..The PM said that the 10k a year that is paid in benefits on top of a low wage was most certainly a figure that would attract even the lowest paid..take that away and the incentive to come to the UK would be severely diminished. He pointed out to TND that if he thought that an extra 10k was not worth it then he must be on another planet ... quite right too
Mr. Royale, that's a legitimate concern, although my primary problem with the EU is the loss of sovereignty.
It's particularly perverse when those in this country most in favour of localising power through devolution tend to be those keenest on giving away power to a foreign entity.
It'll smile and nod and make the right noises, but the Brussels express only chugs in one direction.
We should leave and the vile organisation ought to be dismantled. It will end, and I'm reasonably confident it'll do so in my lifetime. That can be an orderly, agreed process or a chaotic disintegration leading to widespread civil strife and possible even warfare.
I can't see any circumstances where I'd vote to stay, because I take issue with one of the EU's fundamental freedoms, which I view as fundamentalist.
For as long as the UK remains in the EU with that in place, it will act as a migration pressure valve for up to 500m people throughout the rest of the Union whenever it is experiencing economic problems. I expect this to happen regularly and be exacerbated by the fact that we'll almost always be economically out of step with the eurozone.
Does this mean you would also oppose EFTA/EEA membership?
I oppose anything and everything that doesn't give the UK full sovereignty over its borders.
Edit: by which I mean variable controls and limits on absolute immigration numbers subject to the democratic process
Otherwise, at some point, the democratic elastic is going to snap in a very ugly way.
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 3h3 hours ago Ministers are looking at ideas to allow state-funding for political parties. Ukip well positioned to lead campaign against
mike kaye @atmikekayes3 58s58 seconds ago @DouglasCarswell@ukipwebmaster I agree about state-funding for political parties. but UKIP still needs funds that you r denying the party.
Tom Newton Dunn..The PM said that the 10k a year that is paid in benefits on top of a low wage was most certainly a figure that would attract even the lowest paid..take that away and the incentive to come to the UK would be severely diminished. He pointed out to TND that if he thought that an extra 10k was not worth it then he must be on another planet ... quite right too
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
Whatever one may think of Mr Carswell and his defection, he has proven to be an honest and principled man of moral values and independent thought, no matter which party he represents. Politics needs a lot more like him.
Yes, one may disagree with his policies but he can show the UKIP MEPs and many MPs of all parties how they should behave when it comes to public money. Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
What a lot of sanctimonious claptrap! Carswell is a liability that UKIP cannot afford. If he want's to appear godlike he should join the church.
Arf. You want rid of UKIP's sole, one and only, singular, MP?
But after its sole MP Douglas Carswell refused the full £650,000-a-year parliamentary funding to which Ukip is entitled, saying the party should not ‘jump on the gravy train’, it is now being forced to cut back dramatically on staff.
Whatever one may think of Mr Carswell and his defection, he has proven to be an honest and principled man of moral values and independent thought, no matter which party he represents. Politics needs a lot more like him.
Yes, one may disagree with his policies but he can show the UKIP MEPs and many MPs of all parties how they should behave when it comes to public money. Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
Alternatively, Carswell is a prat whose declining of the Short money means less effective representation of the views of those who voted Ukip across the country. But I suppose most defectors have more than their fair share of egotism.
Agree with that last statement. As for the rest: What a lot of sanctimonious claptrap! Carswell is a liability that UKIP cannot afford. If he want's to appear godlike he should join the church.
Comments
Two in a row.
This cannot just be down to the SNP. Perhaps, just perhaps, more people thought the Conservatives offer was better than Labour's?
poor tim. always wrong, never learnt.
Look at the policy choices tab and in particular 'Type of Change' and 'Reducing Inequality' - big leads for the more Tory type positions.
Ed 'smash the system' and 'tax the rich' Miliband was fighting a loosing battle.
Con lead vs Lab:
AB: +18
C1: +10
C2: +6
DE: -12
SNP support also highest among DE......
AB: 3
C1: 5
C2: 6
DE: 8
Edit
UKIP Support also shows a marked skew:
AB: 9
C1: 10
C2: 16
DE: 19
"Not surprising" you might say. True, perhaps, but this work allows bans to be put in place with some sound, scientific backing. The most interesting finding was that the lowest achieving quartile benefitted the most, while the top quartile was [statistically] unaffected by the ban.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/21/kids_without_mobes_in_school_do_better
Though we're now well past peak Kipper. The referendum happening is shooting their fox, plus now they're not the sole protest party of opposition anymore. I'd be amazed if UKIP don't poll less votes in 2020 than 2015.
The main protest party being in government, the BNP totally collapsing, the opposition refusing an EU referendum ... 2015 was a perfect storm for UKIP and they failed to capitalise.
England: +15
Scotland: -14
Direction of Economy - net 'improving':
England: +38
Scotland: -12
The latest increases in unemployment in Scotland suggest that Scots are right to be worried about the mess the SNP are making of governing. Especially since the unemployment rate used to be lower in Scotland than England but is now the reverse.,
The Tories have a long term problem with home ownership, IMHO. Unless they ramp this up for the under 35s now, they could have a big problem in 20 years time.
Not everyone will inherit a nice big pad, or be happy to wait for it.
The old rules were just makework for lawyers and tax accountants which benefited the richest at the expense of the slightly less rich.
But, if I'm honest, I'm increasingly sceptical of the government's (any government's) ability to control immigration. It seems that no matter what they do they don't seem able to meaningfully affect the numbers.
And there is likely to be an oilfield strike...
I have so far found only five of the ousted Lib Dem MPs who have unambiguously stated publicly that they are going to remain active in politics. I expect this number will rise in due course. But unless these numbers rise sharply, the Lib Dems are looking to lose a lot of incumbency-related votes before they even get started in 2020.
If he gets only one significant concession, this will be it.
That the unemployment rate is also higher is one of those mysteries of the universe.
Tim Montgomerie.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4446501.ece
Non-EU numbers in particular need a lot of breaking down. It would be good to see country of origin, education and skills levels, social class, even job titles of these.
If the economy will supported and grown by certain types of immigrants then these numbers need to be excluded from targets - for example I don't care how many 40% tax payers or holders of higher degrees come here - they will undoubtedly add more vale to the country than they take away. Ditto those coming on investor visas.
Why we should be importing any unskilled labourers, taxi drivers and the like is open to debate, this the the immigration we need to control while there are a couple of million of our own unemployed.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4439703.ece
It seems to be he's just frit he's not been admitted to the inner circle, so is throwing his toys out of the pram over anything and everything.
I suspect that at heart he's quite upset the Tories won because it's invalidated much of his commentary over recent years.
This could prove pretty costly - aren't there still many more court claims pending?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32825751
It's all about ego with Tim.
He complained during the election campaign that the Tories we're going to win the wrong way.
I personally think that some of the Tory Right should have a quiet word with Tim.
He genuinely thinks IDS would have won the 2005 election had the Tories kept him in charge.
It's only the Ashes next month, nothing to worry about.
So are the tories on immigration,remember when labour were in power and the tories criticism of them.
At least the humiliation today is for Cameron and his useless pledge of getting immigration down to tens of thousands - laughable.
UKIP proved right again.
What Mr Tim wants is his ego in charge - and his carping just appears very bitter and spoiled childlike. He may have some quite good points, but they're lost in the personal bilge about everyone he disapproves of.
When a commentator is handed a bully-pulpit of Comment Editor as he has in The Times, I think it's a poor decision by the Managing Ed.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b17335c-fd54-11e4-9e96-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3aVwCWbMX
Chris Giles overstates his case - it is possible to push harder without gratuitously insulting everyone you're negotiating with. And I think he underestimates the willingness in practice to keep Britain in the EU - losing Britain would be a hammer blow to the EU's credibility. But there are certainly points in here that the British government should be mindful of:
"After the financial crisis, everyone knew the dangers of financial contagion. And, in capitals as far apart as Madrid and Dublin, moderates today see political contagion as just as dangerous as the financial kind. EU concessions to extremes in one country simply encourage the ejection of centrist governments in others. This fear of moral hazard has motivated Spain’s hardline stance in talks with Greece, and it appears to be working. The popularity of Podemos, the Spanish leftwing populists until recently riding high in the polls, is sinking fast.
The French stance towards Britain’s EU renegotiation will follow the same script. Granting the UK additional domestic rights without corresponding obligations looks like a terrible deal in Paris, where the mainstream left and right are facing a difficult battle against the anti-EU National Front in the run-up to the 2017 presidential election."
"No one wants Britain to leave; but the alternative of British membership of the club without playing by the rules is worse."
A deal needs to look like a deal.
Incidentally some wise words from Osborne:
Osborne went on to warn against rushing to judgment on how the reform talks with other European countries are advancing, predicting intense media scrutiny of the process.
"I'd advise everyone to take all this coverage with a large pinch of salt. The real negotiations will be carried out at the highest level and in private," he added.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2015/5/21/osborne-warns-that-eu-is-sleepwalking-out-of-global-economy
Yes, one may disagree with his policies but he can show the UKIP MEPs and many MPs of all parties how they should behave when it comes to public money.
Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
“It has never been clearer that the UK borders are open to all whenever, wherever and however they want to come. The government has lost all control. The ONS report that 285,000 people came to work in the UK work last year. That is a city the size of Nottingham, which has nearly a 100 schools, 60 GP surgeries and several hospitals. Britain needs to provide the equivalent just to keep up with the workers arriving and this illustrates clearly the strain mass migration is putting on our public services.
If they don't want the UK to leave, they need to offer something serious on migration IMHO.
Had to google the word 'Tortfeasor' but quite agree Mr LiMT, the figures are quite ridiculous.
Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
What a lot of sanctimonious claptrap! Carswell is a liability that UKIP cannot afford. If he want's to appear godlike he should join the church.
Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
PM said "I don't know what planet you're on" when I asked for proof that welfare blocks will lessen EU migration. Yet proof there came none
Someone must be rattled when you have a go at the newspaper that helped you win the Election.
That's it.
It'll smile and nod and make the right noises, but the Brussels express only chugs in one direction.
We should leave and the vile organisation ought to be dismantled. It will end, and I'm reasonably confident it'll do so in my lifetime. That can be an orderly, agreed process or a chaotic disintegration leading to widespread civil strife and possible even warfare.
There are - as I've pointed out - four fundamental "states" a country can be in:
1. In the Eurozone
2. In the EU, but not in the Eurozone
3. In EFTA/the EEA, but not in the EU
4. Having our own trade treaties with the EU/EFTA
(2) is the most troubled, because the EU was built on the foundation of "ever closer union". Speaking of "two speed" misses the point, because it assumes all are heading in the same direction. I think there is a very real possibility that (2) should be eliminated, or merged into (3) and called something like "associate EU member".
The Eurozone - whether it lives or dies in the long-run - is probably going to integrate further in the medium term. Eurobonds of some description will come into being. There will be more EU oversight of individual countries' budgets. And so on, and so forth.
These things clearly do not apply to those members of the EU who are not members of the Eurozone and who are extremely unlikely to join. (We'll start with the UK, Sweden and Denmark.)
What would Associate EU member look like?
1. Part of the common free trade area, and respecting the four "fundamental freedoms" of the EU
2. Not a benificiary (or otherwise) of EU regional spending, and not a member of CAP
3. Makes a contribution to the upkeep of the EU, but one on a Swiss or Norwegian model
4. Allow the EU to negotiate bumper trade agreements on its behalf (as in the TTIP)
5. Observer status on various councils
I think this is something that would be interesting to the Brits, would satisfy much of business, and would recognise that we are not on a path to "ever closer union". It would allow the remaining Eurozone countries to integrate further without having to be in permanent negotiation with the non-EZ countries.
Martin Bell has praised Carswell with regard to the MPs expenses scandal.
Alternatively, Carswell is a prat whose declining of the Short money means less effective representation of the views of those who voted Ukip across the country. But I suppose most defectors have more than their fair share of egotism.
Well, it's Monaco. So, nyoom is probably more accurate
The same goes for the desperate people trying to cross the Mediterranean in boats. Their countries need to be stable, and persecution and war-zone free.
For as long as the UK remains in the EU with that in place, it will act as a migration pressure valve for up to 500m people throughout the rest of the Union whenever it is experiencing economic problems. I expect this to happen regularly and be exacerbated by the fact that we'll almost always be economically out of step with the eurozone.
It's particularly perverse when those in this country most in favour of localising power through devolution tend to be those keenest on giving away power to a foreign entity.
Edit: by which I mean variable controls and limits on absolute immigration numbers subject to the democratic process
Otherwise, at some point, the democratic elastic is going to snap in a very ugly way.
Ministers are looking at ideas to allow state-funding for political parties. Ukip well positioned to lead campaign against
mike kaye @atmikekayes3 58s58 seconds ago
@DouglasCarswell @ukipwebmaster I agree about state-funding for political parties.
but UKIP still needs funds that you r denying the party.
Arf. You want rid of UKIP's sole, one and only, singular, MP?
Agree with that last statement. As for the rest:
What a lot of sanctimonious claptrap! Carswell is a liability that UKIP cannot afford. If he want's to appear godlike he should join the church.