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  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    MTimT said:

    On the slavery discussion, of interest:

    960: Doge of Venice Pietro IV Candiano reconvened the popular assembly and had it approve of a law prohibiting the slave trade.
    1102: Trade in slaves and serfdom condemned by the church in London: Council of London (1102).
    1117: Slavery abolished in Iceland.[5]
    1200: Slavery virtually disappears in Japan; it was never widespread and mostly involved captives taken in civil wars.[6]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abolition_of_slavery_timeline

    So as a country, it seems Iceland got there first.

    Funded by the Icelandic banks, no doubt :-)

    How's Zopher doing?
    Bored out of his brain. He is not allowed to play at all until Saturday, but he is constantly chucking his jolly ball at me to throw for him. Can't let him out with Aoife - she's too rough with him. So, in sum, he is making an amazing recovery. Just have to keep giving him the pain killers so he is not miserable.

    I guess we won't know for sure, but it looks for the moment as though the surgery worked. Hoping it has not metastasized.
    Glad to hear it. Time will tell if it spreads. I do hope not.

    To ease his boredom, have him watch MsNBC between 5 and 7pm. An hour of Ed Schultz and an hour of Al Sharpton will drive him over the edge and make him forget his boredom, which will be replaced by blind rage.

    Then Look out Aoife! :)
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    Some of the posts on here amaze me.

    None of the "metropolitan elite" stuff matters in the slightest. Just as, when push came to shove, none of the "posh / Bullingdon" stuff affected how many people voted Con.

    If Labour wants to win the only question is who will be most attractive to middle England, middle income, aspirational voters.

    Annoying your own hardcore supporters doesn't matter - the objective is to maximise seats not votes. Blair and Cameron have both illustrated that perfectly - go for the Centre and you easily beat UNS.

    Chukka matches the above hands down - way, way more likely to win a GE than Burnham.

    Kendall is certainly a possibility but I think the problem with her is that she doesn't look "senior" enough. If a group of people walk into a room the actual boss needs to look like the boss - Kendall doesn't do that.

    Unfortunately for Labour they achieved the opposite last Thursday. They piled up huge majorities in their safest seats while going backwards in a big way in the marginals.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    Have YouGov's daily polls been suspended?

    Naturally - what on earth would be the point ?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Electorate = 375,406,609

    According to the BBC!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

    That said 46.4 million a few hours ago!
  • RaRaRasputin
    RaRaRasputin Posts: 48
    Off topic - Can anyone direct me to any post-election polling questioning people on why they voted for the party they did, does such polling even exist, or have the polling companies collectively decided that there is no point even trying to understand the capricious British public.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MTimT said:

    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    On the slavery discussion, of interest:

    960: Doge of Venice Pietro IV Candiano reconvened the popular assembly and had it approve of a law prohibiting the slave trade.
    1102: Trade in slaves and serfdom condemned by the church in London: Council of London (1102).
    1117: Slavery abolished in Iceland.[5]
    1200: Slavery virtually disappears in Japan; it was never widespread and mostly involved captives taken in civil wars.[6]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abolition_of_slavery_timeline

    So as a country, it seems Iceland got there first.

    Venice wasn't a country? :p
    LOL. I was counting it as a city state, but it was probably larger, and certainly more important on the international scene, than Iceland.
    Venice was an independent Republic, so arguably a country in modern terms, just a physically small one. Though as trade is concerned, definitely don't underestimate it. The Fourth Crusade was largely instigated by Venice.
    Was that the one that ended up sacking Constantinople?
    Yes. It was supposed to be going to Jerusalem but Venice basically hijacked the crusade and redirected it to Constantinople instead.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    She has been on QT a number of times and has been on the front bench for over a year. She certainly actively campaigned over the year, as far as Scotland to support SLAB.

    She is a grafter, and ambitious. What is wrong with showing a bit of ambition?
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    MTimT said:

    On the slavery discussion, of interest:

    960: Doge of Venice Pietro IV Candiano reconvened the popular assembly and had it approve of a law prohibiting the slave trade.
    1102: Trade in slaves and serfdom condemned by the church in London: Council of London (1102).
    1117: Slavery abolished in Iceland.[5]
    1200: Slavery virtually disappears in Japan; it was never widespread and mostly involved captives taken in civil wars.[6]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abolition_of_slavery_timeline

    So as a country, it seems Iceland got there first.

    Funded by the Icelandic banks, no doubt :-)

    How's Zopher doing?
    Bored out of his brain. He is not allowed to play at all until Saturday, but he is constantly chucking his jolly ball at me to throw for him. Can't let him out with Aoife - she's too rough with him. So, in sum, he is making an amazing recovery. Just have to keep giving him the pain killers so he is not miserable.

    I guess we won't know for sure, but it looks for the moment as though the surgery worked. Hoping it has not metastasized.
    Glad to hear it. Time will tell if it spreads. I do hope not.

    To ease his boredom, have him watch MsNBC between 5 and 7pm. An hour of Ed Schultz and an hour of Al Sharpton will drive him over the edge and make him forget his boredom, which will be replaced by blind rage.

    Then Look out Aoife! :)
    :) But don't need to get his blood pressure up - he has a couple of major blood vessels stitched and still healing.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    She has been on QT a number of times and has been on the front bench for over a year. She certainly actively campaigned over the year, as far as Scotland to support SLAB.

    She is a grafter, and ambitious. What is wrong with showing a bit of ambition?
    She's now out to 9.6 on Betfair - better than the 6/1 in the thread. Hunt now 13s
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

    Ideology
    Euroscepticism[4][5]
    Right-wing populism[6]
    British unionism[7]
    Conservatism[8]
    Economic liberalism[8][5]

    Political position
    Right-wing[9][10]


    The UK Independence Party (UKIP /ˈjuːkɪp/) is a Eurosceptic[12][13] and right-wing populist[6] political party in the United Kingdom
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    AndyJS said:

    Have YouGov's daily polls been suspended?

    Rupert generally seems to take a dim view to failure, especially when it's costing him money... So I suspect he's done us all a favour and pulled the plug on the daily tracker.

    Hopefully we can go back to having a sensible number of more accurate polls in this Parliament...

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    AndyJS said:

    Have YouGov's daily polls been suspended?

    I am presuming Uncle Rupert probably wasn't best pleased that all that money he spent was just producing utter garbage.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    A lot of UKIP voters are racists as well.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Have YouGov's daily polls been suspended?

    Rupert generally seems to take a dim view to failure, especially when it's costing him money... So I suspect he's done us all a favour and pulled the plug on the daily tracker.

    Hopefully we can go back to having a sensible number of more accurate polls in this Parliament...

    One right at the end, sample size 30 million?
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2015
    It had to happen -

    following the NFL punishments for Deflategate visited on the New England Patriots yesterday, which were quite severe, all the sports networks have had wall-to-wall coverage discussing it.

    Roger Goodell, NFL Commissioner, has always said his job (for which he earns $44 million a year) is to protect the integrity of the game.

    One of the talking heads today compared his actions on Deflategate to a man with one of the more wonderful names I've heard, Judge Kennesaw Mountain Landis, brought in by baseball owners as the first commissioner to clean up baseball after the Black Sox scandal in 1919. (see Eliot Asinof's wonderful book 'Eight Men Out' for details, or the movie of the same name).

    So in New England, are we at the beginning of the Jimmy Garoppolo era? Probably not. I bet the Pats have already checked if Kyle Orton is 'finally' retired.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Have YouGov's daily polls been suspended?

    Rupert generally seems to take a dim view to failure, especially when it's costing him money... So I suspect he's done us all a favour and pulled the plug on the daily tracker.

    Hopefully we can go back to having a sensible number of more accurate polls in this Parliament...

    One right at the end, sample size 30 million?
    I think that was one poll Uncle Rupert was pleased with :-)

    I wonder if we might see the merger back on for Sky / News UK ? For his organization it is the way he ensures being best placed to be able to cover all angles i.e forgot double or triple play, he would be able to offer the full works.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Have YouGov's daily polls been suspended?

    Rupert generally seems to take a dim view to failure, especially when it's costing him money... So I suspect he's done us all a favour and pulled the plug on the daily tracker.

    Hopefully we can go back to having a sensible number of more accurate polls in this Parliament...

    YouGov = YawnGov!
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TGOHF said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    She has been on QT a number of times and has been on the front bench for over a year. She certainly actively campaigned over the year, as far as Scotland to support SLAB.

    She is a grafter, and ambitious. What is wrong with showing a bit of ambition?
    She's now out to 9.6 on Betfair - better than the 6/1 in the thread. Hunt now 13s
    I wouldn't touch Hunt at any price. The others are all realistic winners of the Labour Leadership, but as Hopi says Labour needs more than a Leader, it needs a Prime Minister.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SquareRoot said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    A lot of UKIP voters are racists as well.
    A lot of racists are left-wing. It is ludicrously over-simplistic to label all nationalists as being on the right and then lumping them in with the economically right-wing. The BNP was extremely left wing in its economics.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    Translation: "She DOESN'T look OK"?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    Based on one interview I have seen, Liz Kendall looks the best one of those listed in the thread header. She seems genuine and non of the others do at all.. I think Ed Miliband was genuine but had it coached out of him.. his best speech, delivery wise, was his his resignation.

    What was it in that which you respected?

    I thought the only resignation speech that was impressive was Cleggs. Considering how the result went he must have been distraught but he gave a very gracious speech addressing the work the party had done, stuff to be proud of, respect for the voters and issues for the future. It was a very measured and respectful speech.

    I found Milibands by contrast to be very small minded and self-regarding. Which I wouldn't hold too much against him given again how upset he must have been, but I didn't find anything genuine in it.
    I never said respected and I said delivery wise
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TGOHF said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    She has been on QT a number of times and has been on the front bench for over a year. She certainly actively campaigned over the year, as far as Scotland to support SLAB.

    She is a grafter, and ambitious. What is wrong with showing a bit of ambition?
    She's now out to 9.6 on Betfair - better than the 6/1 in the thread. Hunt now 13s
    I wouldn't touch Hunt at any price. The others are all realistic winners of the Labour Leadership, but as Hopi says Labour needs more than a Leader, it needs a Prime Minister.
    Who can win the Labour Leadership and who can be a Prime Minister are two very different things.

    Just because Labour needs a PM in waiting doesn't mean they'll elect one.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited May 2015
    Tim_B said:

    It had to happen -

    following the NFL punishments for Deflategate visited on the New England Patriots yesterday, which were quite severe, all the sports networks have had wall-to-wall coverage discussing it.

    Roger Goodell, NFL Commissioner, has always said his job (for which he earns $44 million a year) is to protect the integrity of the game.

    One of the talking heads today compared his actions on Deflategate to a man with one of the more wonderful names I've heard, Judge Kennesaw Mountain Landis, brought in by baseball owners as the first commissioner to clean up baseball after the Black Sox scandal in 1919. (see Eliot Asinof's wonderful book 'Eight Men Out' for details, or the movie of the same name).

    In other news....I see Tiger has been caught sharing his putter around again and hence why Lindsey Vonn walked away.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    Who said amazing? You don't have to be anything more than adequate to be the best horse in this race
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    Based on one interview I have seen, Liz Kendall looks the best one of those listed in the thread header. She seems genuine and non of the others do at all.. I think Ed Miliband was genuine but had it coached out of him.. his best speech, delivery wise, was his his resignation.

    What was it in that which you respected?

    I thought the only resignation speech that was impressive was Cleggs. Considering how the result went he must have been distraught but he gave a very gracious speech addressing the work the party had done, stuff to be proud of, respect for the voters and issues for the future. It was a very measured and respectful speech.

    I found Milibands by contrast to be very small minded and self-regarding. Which I wouldn't hold too much against him given again how upset he must have been, but I didn't find anything genuine in it.
    I never said respected and I said delivery wise
    Ah I misunderstood sorry. Delivery wise it did seem more genuine rather than scripted I agree, but genuinely self-regarding and unappealing to me at least.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Labour are going to do what the Tories did in1997. you can see it coming
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    Translation: "She DOESN'T look OK"?
    Eh ? we have seen from north of the border that looks aren't important - neither is a voice like nails being dragged down a blackboard.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Philip_Thompson said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    A lot of UKIP voters are racists as well.
    A lot of racists are left-wing. It is ludicrously over-simplistic to label all nationalists as being on the right and then lumping them in with the economically right-wing. The BNP was extremely left wing in its economics.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

    Ideology
    Euroscepticism[4][5]
    Right-wing populism[6]
    British unionism[7]
    Conservatism[8]
    Economic liberalism[8][5]

    Political position
    Right-wing[9][10]


    The UK Independence Party (UKIP /ˈjuːkɪp/) is a Eurosceptic[12][13] and right-wing populist[6] political party in the United Kingdom
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Philip_Thompson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TGOHF said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    She has been on QT a number of times and has been on the front bench for over a year. She certainly actively campaigned over the year, as far as Scotland to support SLAB.

    She is a grafter, and ambitious. What is wrong with showing a bit of ambition?
    She's now out to 9.6 on Betfair - better than the 6/1 in the thread. Hunt now 13s
    I wouldn't touch Hunt at any price. The others are all realistic winners of the Labour Leadership, but as Hopi says Labour needs more than a Leader, it needs a Prime Minister.
    Who can win the Labour Leadership and who can be a Prime Minister are two very different things.

    Just because Labour needs a PM in waiting doesn't mean they'll elect one.
    I agree. Labour (and the Tories too) have a history of choosing the wrong person. They get it right when they are hungry for power, get it wrong when they are most interested in internal wrangling.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Fox You only really look like a PM once you have won an election, given Cameron will not be running Osborne, Javid, May etc do not exactly look like PMs at the moment either, but someone from the 2 main parties will
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2015
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

    Ideology
    Euroscepticism[4][5]
    Right-wing populism[6]
    British unionism[7]
    Conservatism[8]
    Economic liberalism[8][5]

    Political position
    Right-wing[9][10]


    The UK Independence Party (UKIP /ˈjuːkɪp/) is a Eurosceptic[12][13] and right-wing populist[6] political party in the United Kingdom
    UKIP may be right wing but a lot of their voters certainly aren't and weren't voting for them for right wing reasons. Neither the voters of the parties nor the parties are interchangeable and lumping them together is too simplistic.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2015
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    A lot of UKIP voters are racists as well.
    A lot of racists are left-wing. It is ludicrously over-simplistic to label all nationalists as being on the right and then lumping them in with the economically right-wing. The BNP was extremely left wing in its economics.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

    Ideology
    Euroscepticism[4][5]
    Right-wing populism[6]
    British unionism[7]
    Conservatism[8]
    Economic liberalism[8][5]

    Political position
    Right-wing[9][10]


    The UK Independence Party (UKIP /ˈjuːkɪp/) is a Eurosceptic[12][13] and right-wing populist[6] political party in the United Kingdom
    UKIRP is nearer the mark.. How many people have been exposed of late for extreme racist views..

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02/23/ukip-is-officially-the-most-racist-party_n_6733996.html
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Fox You only really look like a PM once you have won an election, given Cameron will not be running Osborne, Javid, May etc do not exactly look like PMs at the moment either, but someone from the 2 main parties will

    Cameron looked like a PM in waiting. Blair looked like a PM in waiting.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TGOHF said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TGOHF said:

    If Kendall is so amazing why was she nowhere on the oppo benches nor in the election campaign ? Keeping her skin clean ? Sounds like she is full of the plot.

    Translation: "She DOESN'T look OK"?
    Eh ? we have seen from north of the border that looks aren't important - neither is a voice like nails being dragged down a blackboard.
    If looks mattered Leanne Wood would have done a lot better in the debates. ;)
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/getting-it-right/11171179/Telegraph-latest-cartoon-gallery.html
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Fox You only really look like a PM once you have won an election, given Cameron will not be running Osborne, Javid, May etc do not exactly look like PMs at the moment either, but someone from the 2 main parties will

    PM Chuka? Don't make me laugh! Double Ditto for Tristam Hunt.

    I like Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper, but neither will reach into the middle ground and both have a little too much backstory in the Brown/Blair years.

    I do not get a say. My party is the LDs, but would I vote for Liz? Of course I would. She would go down very well across a broad part of the country.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    I struggle to see how Labour can select a leader than appeals to (a) middle England voters, (b) old Labour voters in northern England and Wales, and (c) Labour’s new supporter base of metropolitan yuppies in inner London. It seems like an impossible task to choose a leader that will satisfy all of those groups.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Wow, if you ever want to get an example of why Scottish Labour are finished, go on iplayer - set it to Scotland and watch tonights Scotland 2015 while it's still in the 2 hour buffer,

    The interview with James Kelly MSP is utterly revealing. (about 22 mins in)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited May 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

    Ideology
    Euroscepticism[4][5]
    Right-wing populism[6]
    British unionism[7]
    Conservatism[8]
    Economic liberalism[8][5]

    Political position
    Right-wing[9][10]


    The UK Independence Party (UKIP /ˈjuːkɪp/) is a Eurosceptic[12][13] and right-wing populist[6] political party in the United Kingdom
    UKIP may be right wing but a lot of their voters certainly aren't and weren't voting for them for right wing reasons. Neither the voters of the parties nor the parties are interchangeable and lumping them together is too simplistic.
    Right-wing PARTIES got 50.6% of the vote:

    Tories 36.9
    UKIP 12.6
    DUP 0.6
    UUP 0.4
    TUV 0.1

    (other parties like EDP and BNP too small to be significant (sub 0.1%)

    Assorted Lefties got 40.5

    Labour 30.4
    SNP 4.7
    Green 3.8
    Sinn Fein 0.6
    Plaid Cymru 0.6
    SDLP 0.3
    TUSC 0.1

    (again, others parties like Respect got sub 0.1%)

    Centrists got 8.2%

    LibDems 7.9
    Alliance 0.2
    National Health Action 0.1 (well they were the highest-polling "neutrals")

    Others/Independents 0.5%


    Figures from the BBC site - hopefully trustworthy, unlike their Electorate figure!

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    Wow, if you ever want to get an example of why Scottish Labour are finished, go on iplayer - set it to Scotland and watch tonights Scotland 2015 while it's still in the 2 hour buffer,

    The interview with James Kelly MSP is utterly revealing. (about 22 mins in)

    Can you give a link? I can find yesterday's programme but not tonight's.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05vmk1k/scotland-2015-11052015
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Looks like Eck wants a 7th pension - this one from Brussels

    "There is speculation that Mr Salmond, who captured the Aberdeenshire seat of Gordon from the Liberal Democrats, could become SNP spokesman on Europe."
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    Wow, if you ever want to get an example of why Scottish Labour are finished, go on iplayer - set it to Scotland and watch tonights Scotland 2015 while it's still in the 2 hour buffer,

    The interview with James Kelly MSP is utterly revealing. (about 22 mins in)

    Can you give a link? I can find yesterday's programme but not tonight's.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05vmk1k/scotland-2015-11052015
    You would need to watch it as Live by setting iplayer region to Scotland and scrolling back (you can scroll back live TV up to two hours). Otherwise wait till the morning and it will be there.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Fox Liz Kendall is OK but looks like a Deputy, Umunna and Cooper look like leaders
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited May 2015
    Andy JS As I have already pointed out and Mike L sensibly pointed out centrist telegenic leaders do best in the marginals, whether in London, the provinces or middle England eg Cameron won more seats in Yorkshire than Hague, Blair more seats in Wales than Kinnock
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    Wow, if you ever want to get an example of why Scottish Labour are finished, go on iplayer - set it to Scotland and watch tonights Scotland 2015 while it's still in the 2 hour buffer,

    The interview with James Kelly MSP is utterly revealing. (about 22 mins in)

    Can you give a link? I can find yesterday's programme but not tonight's.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05vmk1k/scotland-2015-11052015
    You would need to watch it as Live by setting iplayer region to Scotland and scrolling back (you can scroll back live TV up to two hours). Otherwise wait till the morning and it will be there.
    Okay thanks.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

    Ideology
    Euroscepticism[4][5]
    Right-wing populism[6]
    British unionism[7]
    Conservatism[8]
    Economic liberalism[8][5]

    Political position
    Right-wing[9][10]


    The UK Independence Party (UKIP /ˈjuːkɪp/) is a Eurosceptic[12][13] and right-wing populist[6] political party in the United Kingdom
    UKIP may be right wing but a lot of their voters certainly aren't and weren't voting for them for right wing reasons. Neither the voters of the parties nor the parties are interchangeable and lumping them together is too simplistic.
    Right-wing PARTIES got 50.6% of the vote:

    Tories 36.9
    UKIP 12.9
    DUP 0.6
    UUP 0.4
    TUV 0.1

    (other parties like EDP and BNP too small to be significant (sub 0.1%)

    Assorted Lefties got 40.5

    Labour 30.4
    SNP 4.7
    Green 3.8
    Sinn Fein 0.6
    Plaid Cymru 0.6
    SDLP 0.3
    TUSC 0.1

    (again, others parties like Respect got sub 0.1%)

    Centrists got 8.2%

    LibDems 7.9
    Alliance 0.2
    National Health Action 0.1 (well they were the highest-polling "neutrals")

    Others/Independents 0.5%


    Figures from the BBC site - hopefully trustworthy, unlike their Electorate figure!

    How many seats would the Tories have won if everyone who voted UKIP, voted for them?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    PT Well Cameron and Blair will not be leading either party in 2020 so what
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    I struggle to see how Labour can select a leader than appeals to (a) middle England voters, (b) old Labour voters in northern England and Wales, and (c) Labour’s new supporter base of metropolitan yuppies in inner London. It seems like an impossible task to choose a leader that will satisfy all of those groups.

    2 out of 3 would be good. Which group is the easiest to sacrifice, knowing they have nowhere else to go?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    PT Well Cameron and Blair will not be leading either party in 2020 so what

    You said you don't look like a PM until you won an election, that's simply not true. The only two opposition leaders who won in the last 36 years looked like a PM in waiting before they won.

    Whoever replaces Cameron towards the end of this term will be PM. Labour need to chose someone who looks like a PM in waiting.
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Scott_P said:

    Has there been a change to Vanilla? The quotes are not collapsed any more

    Well the full band for sporting index that ran down the entire thread length causing regular activation of that site has now gone and it's back to normal

    What on earth has happened to the thread comments I have no idea but basically gave up trying to read them for now.


    Message for Jonthan

    Like the new avatar... :-)


  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/getting-it-right/11171179/Telegraph-latest-cartoon-gallery.html

    That reminds me of the BBC reports of Boris second victory, taking about how he only just scraped it..Compare and contrast with how they reported Obama second victory...what do they have in common the margin of victory was about the same.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    I struggle to see how Labour can select a leader than appeals to (a) middle England voters, (b) old Labour voters in northern England and Wales, and (c) Labour’s new supporter base of metropolitan yuppies in inner London. It seems like an impossible task to choose a leader that will satisfy all of those groups.

    2 out of 3 would be good. Which group is the easiest to sacrifice, knowing they have nowhere else to go?
    Agreed, but I can't see them doing it.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Watching Newsnight, it seems the commentators from the EU they have on (deliberately or not) havent learned from the Scottish Referendum. They're accepting it might have negatives for the EU. British Nationalists never once accepted the stark truth of English economic collapse after UK dissolved.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fox You only really look like a PM once you have won an election, given Cameron will not be running Osborne, Javid, May etc do not exactly look like PMs at the moment either, but someone from the 2 main parties will

    Cameron looked like a PM in waiting. Blair looked like a PM in waiting.
    Did Major look like a PM in waiting? What about Thatcher in '78?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    Wow, if you ever want to get an example of why Scottish Labour are finished, go on iplayer - set it to Scotland and watch tonights Scotland 2015 while it's still in the 2 hour buffer,

    The interview with James Kelly MSP is utterly revealing. (about 22 mins in)

    "We spent 30 years successfully demonising the Tories, and demons they are..."
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    HYUFD said:

    Fox Liz Kendall is OK but looks like a Deputy, Umunna and Cooper look like leaders

    Liz Kendall is a Fox?

    :lol:
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    I struggle to see how Labour can select a leader than appeals to (a) middle England voters, (b) old Labour voters in northern England and Wales, and (c) Labour’s new supporter base of metropolitan yuppies in inner London. It seems like an impossible task to choose a leader that will satisfy all of those groups.

    2 out of 3 would be good. Which group is the easiest to sacrifice, knowing they have nowhere else to go?
    The election will be lost won or lost with Middle England voters. Whoever can appeal best to them, take them plus whichever of the other set goes with that leader. Eg Blair was middle plus metropolitan and that's probably the easiest to reconcile again.

    Thankfully no Labour candidates appear to have grasped that.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Pong said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fox You only really look like a PM once you have won an election, given Cameron will not be running Osborne, Javid, May etc do not exactly look like PMs at the moment either, but someone from the 2 main parties will

    Cameron looked like a PM in waiting. Blair looked like a PM in waiting.
    Did Major look like a PM in waiting? What about Thatcher in '78?
    People tend to look more like that in hindsight.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/getting-it-right/11171179/Telegraph-latest-cartoon-gallery.html

    That reminds me of the BBC reports of Boris second victory, taking about how he only just scraped it..Compare and contrast with how they reported Obama second victory...what do they have in common the margin of victory was about the same.
    But the US election is done by electoral college not popular vote. And Obama pretty much stormed the college.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The daunting task facing Labour: they have to select a leader who can win seats like Watford (Con maj 9,794), Redditch (Con maj 7,054), Milton Keynes North (Con maj 9,753), Gravesham (Con maj 8,380).

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    RobD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!),

    Right-wing parties won 50.6% across the UK last Thursday

    Lefties won 40.5%
    Liberals/Centrists 8.2%

    The problem with this sort of analysis is that it places UKIP on the right. A lot of UKIP voters are left-wing nationalists.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party

    Ideology
    Euroscepticism[4][5]
    Right-wing populism[6]
    British unionism[7]
    Conservatism[8]
    Economic liberalism[8][5]

    Political position
    Right-wing[9][10]


    The UK Independence Party (UKIP /ˈjuːkɪp/) is a Eurosceptic[12][13] and right-wing populist[6] political party in the United Kingdom
    UKIP may be right wing but a lot of their voters certainly aren't and weren't voting for them for right wing reasons. Neither the voters of the parties nor the parties are interchangeable and lumping them together is too simplistic.
    Right-wing PARTIES got 50.6% of the vote:

    Tories 36.9
    UKIP 12.9
    DUP 0.6
    UUP 0.4
    TUV 0.1

    (other parties like EDP and BNP too small to be significant (sub 0.1%)

    Assorted Lefties got 40.5

    Labour 30.4
    SNP 4.7
    Green 3.8
    Sinn Fein 0.6
    Plaid Cymru 0.6
    SDLP 0.3
    TUSC 0.1

    (again, others parties like Respect got sub 0.1%)

    Centrists got 8.2%

    LibDems 7.9
    Alliance 0.2
    National Health Action 0.1 (well they were the highest-polling "neutrals")

    Others/Independents 0.5%


    Figures from the BBC site - hopefully trustworthy, unlike their Electorate figure!

    How many seats would the Tories have won if everyone who voted UKIP, voted for them?
    Ilford North for one!

    Wes Streeting's majority is only 589.
    UKIP got 4,355...

  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    I see having now completed a democratic election the military wing of the defeated Labour Party stirs into action and calls the first rail strike for 21 years. TBH why can't these imbeciles just feck off into the sunset me leave us alone.


    On the same thought given Unison supported at least a third of the labour MP hopefuls how many actually made it into Parliament?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited May 2015
    corporeal said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/getting-it-right/11171179/Telegraph-latest-cartoon-gallery.html

    That reminds me of the BBC reports of Boris second victory, taking about how he only just scraped it..Compare and contrast with how they reported Obama second victory...what do they have in common the margin of victory was about the same.
    But the US election is done by electoral college not popular vote. And Obama pretty much stormed the college.
    Good job it wasn't Romney, they would have been calling for change in voting system if he had "stormed it" on 51% of the vote in what is effectively a 2 horse race.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    I struggle to see how Labour can select a leader than appeals to (a) middle England voters, (b) old Labour voters in northern England and Wales, and (c) Labour’s new supporter base of metropolitan yuppies in inner London. It seems like an impossible task to choose a leader that will satisfy all of those groups.

    2 out of 3 would be good. Which group is the easiest to sacrifice, knowing they have nowhere else to go?
    Sure, but just think of the meltdown on Twitter, Rod.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Andy JS If they have an appealing enough leader and the mood is for change they will all fall, indeed as this election has shown the swing in the marginals is even more than UNS
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pong said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fox You only really look like a PM once you have won an election, given Cameron will not be running Osborne, Javid, May etc do not exactly look like PMs at the moment either, but someone from the 2 main parties will

    Cameron looked like a PM in waiting. Blair looked like a PM in waiting.
    Did Major look like a PM in waiting? What about Thatcher in '78?
    Major was already PM. He didn't need to look like in-waiting, he was PM already. So too was Brown but he was facing Cameron, a PM in waiting. Had the Tories been led by someone weaker, its entirely possible even Brown would have been re-elected.

    Thatcher was three years before I was born and will have been more than 40 years prior to the next election.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS If they have an appealing enough leader and the mood is for change they will all fall, indeed as this election has shown the swing in the marginals is even more than UNS

    That's the key. Labour cannot win the next election unless the Tories first lose it. Which of course they might.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Dair Yes, I know London would fall into the sea as soon as Scotland went, in fact it would be so bad who knew we managed for about 400 years without Scotland before the Act of Union
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Pong Exactly, just because you do not look like a PM from central casting does not mean you do not look like a PM, did Wilson in 1964, Heath in 1970, especially when your opponent is not a PM from central casting either
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS If they have an appealing enough leader and the mood is for change they will all fall, indeed as this election has shown the swing in the marginals is even more than UNS

    That's true but how many elections have seen a swing of 8.7% in the marginals? 1997 is the only one I can think of.

    Personally I think both the Tories and Labour maxed out their vote in this election. The trend of a declining combined Con/Lab vote share didn't happen this time for various reasons, but it's likely to continue next time. So I think if there's a mood for change it'll be towards smaller parties rather than the big ones.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Pong Exactly, just because you do not look like a PM from central casting does not mean you do not look like a PM, did Wilson in 1964, Heath in 1970, especially when your opponent is not a PM from central casting either

    Looking back more than 50 years ago is meaningless compared to the modern era. A lot has changed, how much televised coverage of Parliament was happening in sixties?

    Going back in recent decades since the advent of major televised coverage there has been a clear distinction between the success of oppositions led by a credible PM in waiting and those that weren't.

    That doesn't mean its inevitable, every trend breaks eventually. But its categorically false to say you don't look like a PM in waiting until after you've won - both the successful leaders in recent decades clearly did beforehand.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS If they have an appealing enough leader and the mood is for change they will all fall, indeed as this election has shown the swing in the marginals is even more than UNS

    That's true but how many elections have seen a swing of 8.7% in the marginals? 1997 is the only one I can think of.

    Personally I think both the Tories and Labour maxed out their vote in this election. The trend of a declining combined Con/Lab vote share didn't happen this time for various reasons, but it's likely to continue next time. So I think if there's a mood for change it'll be towards smaller parties rather than the big ones.
    I suspect its the opposite. We're seeking a return to two party politics. With the demise of the Lib Dems and the failure of UKIP to break through there are only two serious parties in England now - I suspect next time like this time people will make a forced choice on which they prefer.
  • Flightpathl
    Flightpathl Posts: 1,243
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Some of the posts on here amaze me.

    None of the "metropolitan elite" stuff matters in the slightest. Just as, when push came to shove, none of the "posh / Bullingdon" stuff affected how many people voted Con.

    If Labour wants to win the only question is who will be most attractive to middle England, middle income, aspirational voters.

    Annoying your own hardcore supporters doesn't matter - the objective is to maximise seats not votes. Blair and Cameron have both illustrated that perfectly - go for the Centre and you easily beat UNS.

    Chukka matches the above hands down - way, way more likely to win a GE than Burnham.

    Kendall is certainly a possibility but I think the problem with her is that she doesn't look "senior" enough. If a group of people walk into a room the actual boss needs to look like the boss - Kendall doesn't do that.

    Unfortunately for Labour they achieved the opposite last Thursday. They piled up huge majorities in their safest seats while going backwards in a big way in the marginals.
    After its '74 defeat the Tories did not simply elect Mrs Thatcher, they gave a lot of thought to policy and not simply where they, but where the country had gone and was going wrong. Mrs Thatcher was not simply one person, she represented the rethinking of many conservatives. What is there behind any of these candidates? What are they rethinking, if anything?
  • Flightpathl
    Flightpathl Posts: 1,243
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    corporeal said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/getting-it-right/11171179/Telegraph-latest-cartoon-gallery.html

    That reminds me of the BBC reports of Boris second victory, taking about how he only just scraped it..Compare and contrast with how they reported Obama second victory...what do they have in common the margin of victory was about the same.
    But the US election is done by electoral college not popular vote. And Obama pretty much stormed the college.
    Good job it wasn't Romney, they would have been calling for change in voting system if he had "stormed it" on 51% of the vote in what is effectively a 2 horse race.
    The USA is a federal country where the president has to win in each state to get the votes of that state to become president. Its not the least bit proportionate.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    I just don't see how labour will be able to get anywhere near the Tory offer in 2020. There is a default assumption everywhere that this is the bottom for labour. The only way is up. That is not a correct assumption.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    As a result of the election 5,038,742 people who voted for either UKIP or the Greens are "represented" by Douglas Carswell and Caroline Lucas. That's like the population of Norway being represented by two people.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS If they have an appealing enough leader and the mood is for change they will all fall, indeed as this election has shown the swing in the marginals is even more than UNS

    That's true but how many elections have seen a swing of 8.7% in the marginals? 1997 is the only one I can think of.

    Personally I think both the Tories and Labour maxed out their vote in this election. The trend of a declining combined Con/Lab vote share didn't happen this time for various reasons, but it's likely to continue next time. So I think if there's a mood for change it'll be towards smaller parties rather than the big ones.
    I suspect its the opposite. We're seeking a return to two party politics. With the demise of the Lib Dems and the failure of UKIP to break through there are only two serious parties in England now - I suspect next time like this time people will make a forced choice on which they prefer.
    IMO it was only the threat of Sturgeon running the UK that enticed many potential UKIP voters in the south of England back to the Tories. That scenario probably won't happen again.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Flightpathl said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Some of the posts on here amaze me.

    None of the "metropolitan elite" stuff matters in the slightest. Just as, when push came to shove, none of the "posh / Bullingdon" stuff affected how many people voted Con.

    If Labour wants to win the only question is who will be most attractive to middle England, middle income, aspirational voters.

    Annoying your own hardcore supporters doesn't matter - the objective is to maximise seats not votes. Blair and Cameron have both illustrated that perfectly - go for the Centre and you easily beat UNS.

    Chukka matches the above hands down - way, way more likely to win a GE than Burnham.

    Kendall is certainly a possibility but I think the problem with her is that she doesn't look "senior" enough. If a group of people walk into a room the actual boss needs to look like the boss - Kendall doesn't do that.

    Unfortunately for Labour they achieved the opposite last Thursday. They piled up huge majorities in their safest seats while going backwards in a big way in the marginals.
    After its '74 defeat the Tories did not simply elect Mrs Thatcher, they gave a lot of thought to policy and not simply where they, but where the country had gone and was going wrong. Mrs Thatcher was not simply one person, she represented the rethinking of many conservatives. What is there behind any of these candidates? What are they rethinking, if anything?
    After the '74 defeat Thatcher only became viable because Joseph self-destructed.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Flightpathl said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    corporeal said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/getting-it-right/11171179/Telegraph-latest-cartoon-gallery.html

    That reminds me of the BBC reports of Boris second victory, taking about how he only just scraped it..Compare and contrast with how they reported Obama second victory...what do they have in common the margin of victory was about the same.
    But the US election is done by electoral college not popular vote. And Obama pretty much stormed the college.
    Good job it wasn't Romney, they would have been calling for change in voting system if he had "stormed it" on 51% of the vote in what is effectively a 2 horse race.
    The USA is a federal country where the president has to win in each state to get the votes of that state to become president. Its not the least bit proportionate.
    But it is proportionate. The seats allocated to each state in the electoral college is proportionate to the population, albeit with an in-built bias to small states as each state gets 2 electoral college votes for each senator, and then the same number as the number of their representatives, which is adjusted based on the state's proportion of the overall electorate.

    So the system is proportionate, in the same sense as FPTP is proportionate, just not a direct vote.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    taffys said:

    I just don't see how labour will be able to get anywhere near the Tory offer in 2020. There is a default assumption everywhere that this is the bottom for labour. The only way is up. That is not a correct assumption.

    5 years is... quite a while in politics.

    The 2 big events are Holyrood 2016 where the SNP will go double or quits on indy ref 2 as a large plank in their manifesto. With SLAB truly gutted, and a majority Conservative Gov't I think they'll get a mandate in Scotland for that. And the EU ref.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Mr andy
    Yet again we have the default assumption 'the Tories have peaked' that failed so spectacularly in the election just gone.
    Think the unthinkable. What if England booms in the next five years? What if the Tories reduce labour to 200 in England. Or fewer.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    During the BBC election night coverage it was mentioned several times that Sturgeon's 'ideal' would be a minority Labour govt with SNP support to 'keep out the tories'.

    How does that play in England, both last week and in the future?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Dair said:

    Watching Newsnight, it seems the commentators from the EU they have on (deliberately or not) havent learned from the Scottish Referendum. They're accepting it might have negatives for the EU. British Nationalists never once accepted the stark truth of English economic collapse after UK dissolved.

    So FFA NOW! Then?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    taffys said:

    Mr andy
    Yet again we have the default assumption 'the Tories have peaked' that failed so spectacularly in the election just gone.
    Think the unthinkable. What if England booms in the next five years? What if the Tories reduce labour to 200 in England. Or fewer.

    Stop getting me all excited!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    taffys Most governments get reelected, most do not last more than 10 years. Just as plausible the Tories will be divided post EU ref especially if a narrow In
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    TP Andy JS 10 years is normally enough for the electorate to stomach most governments and the trend is for UNS to be exceeded in the marginals, small parties do not come into play in Tory v Labour marginal swings
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Philip Thompson Ed M did not look like a PM in waiting, any of Cooper and Umunna could be, especially now Cameron will have left in 2020
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS If they have an appealing enough leader and the mood is for change they will all fall, indeed as this election has shown the swing in the marginals is even more than UNS

    That's true but how many elections have seen a swing of 8.7% in the marginals? 1997 is the only one I can think of.

    Personally I think both the Tories and Labour maxed out their vote in this election. The trend of a declining combined Con/Lab vote share didn't happen this time for various reasons, but it's likely to continue next time. So I think if there's a mood for change it'll be towards smaller parties rather than the big ones.
    I suspect its the opposite. We're seeking a return to two party politics. With the demise of the Lib Dems and the failure of UKIP to break through there are only two serious parties in England now - I suspect next time like this time people will make a forced choice on which they prefer.
    IMO it was only the threat of Sturgeon running the UK that enticed many potential UKIP voters in the south of England back to the Tories. That scenario probably won't happen again.
    The Tories are set for a major boon in the South next time. Swathes of now formerly LD-held seats were previously Tory seats and would have been more naturally Tory seats but were held by Lib Dems with a major personal incumbency vote.

    By taking out the Lib Dems this year there will be a major change to incumbency factors next time. The personal incumbency for Cable, Hughes etc is gone. Instead next time there will be a first time incumbency bonus for the Tory incumbents.

    Given the incumbency changes there's no reason to assume the seats are at great risk next time.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Flightpathl said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Some of the posts on here amaze me.

    None of the "metropolitan elite" stuff matters in the slightest. Just as, when push came to shove, none of the "posh / Bullingdon" stuff affected how many people voted Con.

    If Labour wants to win the only question is who will be most attractive to middle England, middle income, aspirational voters.

    Annoying your own hardcore supporters doesn't matter - the objective is to maximise seats not votes. Blair and Cameron have both illustrated that perfectly - go for the Centre and you easily beat UNS.

    Chukka matches the above hands down - way, way more likely to win a GE than Burnham.

    Kendall is certainly a possibility but I think the problem with her is that she doesn't look "senior" enough. If a group of people walk into a room the actual boss needs to look like the boss - Kendall doesn't do that.

    Unfortunately for Labour they achieved the opposite last Thursday. They piled up huge majorities in their safest seats while going backwards in a big way in the marginals.
    After its '74 defeat the Tories did not simply elect Mrs Thatcher, they gave a lot of thought to policy and not simply where they, but where the country had gone and was going wrong. Mrs Thatcher was not simply one person, she represented the rethinking of many conservatives. What is there behind any of these candidates? What are they rethinking, if anything?
    Perhaps Thatcher's election in 1975 shows the advantage of the defeated leader staying on. She actually had to challenge Heath for a job he didn't want to quit, thereby demonstrating her character.

    If Miliband had stayed in post over the summer, which, if any, of the names mentioned in this thread would have had the guts to force him out?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/the-council/elections--register-to-vote/borough-elections/2015-borough-election-result.aspx

    Lib Dems didn't do too badly at all in Eastleigh council elections - switched their vote to CON for the GE...
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Philip Thompson Ed M did not look like a PM in waiting, any of Cooper and Umunna could be, especially now Cameron will have left in 2020

    Yes you're right that EdM didn't. That is why this choice is important, we won't know immediately if the new leader does - it will depend in large part upon how they work as opposition leader - but if they don't then barring external factors they will likely not win.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Flightpathl said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Some of the posts on here amaze me.

    None of the "metropolitan elite" stuff matters in the slightest. Just as, when push came to shove, none of the "posh / Bullingdon" stuff affected how many people voted Con.

    If Labour wants to win the only question is who will be most attractive to middle England, middle income, aspirational voters.

    Annoying your own hardcore supporters doesn't matter - the objective is to maximise seats not votes. Blair and Cameron have both illustrated that perfectly - go for the Centre and you easily beat UNS.

    Chukka matches the above hands down - way, way more likely to win a GE than Burnham.

    Kendall is certainly a possibility but I think the problem with her is that she doesn't look "senior" enough. If a group of people walk into a room the actual boss needs to look like the boss - Kendall doesn't do that.

    Unfortunately for Labour they achieved the opposite last Thursday. They piled up huge majorities in their safest seats while going backwards in a big way in the marginals.
    After its '74 defeat the Tories did not simply elect Mrs Thatcher, they gave a lot of thought to policy and not simply where they, but where the country had gone and was going wrong. Mrs Thatcher was not simply one person, she represented the rethinking of many conservatives. What is there behind any of these candidates? What are they rethinking, if anything?
    Perhaps Thatcher's election in 1975 shows the advantage of the defeated leader staying on. She actually had to challenge Heath for a job he didn't want to quit, thereby demonstrating her character.

    If Miliband had stayed in post over the summer, which, if any, of the names mentioned in this thread would have had the guts to force him out?
    Its strange looking back now but back then leaders frequently stayed after losing. Again, times have changed.

    But Miliband was selfish to disappear immediately. He should have done what Howard did.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Dair

    'They're accepting it might have negatives for the EU. British Nationalists never once accepted the stark truth of English economic collapse after UK dissolved.'

    What are you smoking tonight ?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The Lloyds 5% below book or w/e share offer will be the first giveaway by the Gov't I think. I didn't realise how much of a rick the Post Office one was last time and intend to take advantage this time ^^;
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim_B

    'During the BBC election night coverage it was mentioned several times that Sturgeon's 'ideal' would be a minority Labour govt with SNP support to 'keep out the tories'.


    'How does that play in England, both last week and in the future?'


    Conservative majority government.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    Tim_B said:

    During the BBC election night coverage it was mentioned several times that Sturgeon's 'ideal' would be a minority Labour govt with SNP support to 'keep out the tories'.

    How does that play in England, both last week and in the future?

    It was the final nail in the coffin for Ed....any suggestion of that went down like a bucket of cold sick in England and it was repeated ad nauseam by the Tories / Tory friendly press.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/the-council/elections--register-to-vote/borough-elections/2015-borough-election-result.aspx

    Lib Dems didn't do too badly at all in Eastleigh council elections - switched their vote to CON for the GE...

    There's quite a few places like that (but maybe not quite to that extreme) - it's the one reason why I think that they're going to bounce back fast.
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