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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership contest: the betting has it down to fi

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    PhilipThompson The opposite, if the LDs elect Farron he is far more likely to restore Labour to LD tactical voting in Tory-LD marginals which disappeared under the Coalition

    I agree we will have to see how the new Labour leader does, but Cooper and Umunna seem, to me at least, credible
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2015

    Tim_B said:

    It had to happen -

    following the NFL punishments for Deflategate visited on the New England Patriots yesterday, which were quite severe, all the sports networks have had wall-to-wall coverage discussing it.

    Roger Goodell, NFL Commissioner, has always said his job (for which he earns $44 million a year) is to protect the integrity of the game.

    One of the talking heads today compared his actions on Deflategate to a man with one of the more wonderful names I've heard, Judge Kennesaw Mountain Landis, brought in by baseball owners as the first commissioner to clean up baseball after the Black Sox scandal in 1919. (see Eliot Asinof's wonderful book 'Eight Men Out' for details, or the movie of the same name).

    In other news....I see Tiger has been caught sharing his putter around again and hence why Lindsey Vonn walked away.
    Yup - after the Farmers Insurance Classic in February. The objective is not always to get the balls in the hole with the least number of strokes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015

    Tim_B said:

    During the BBC election night coverage it was mentioned several times that Sturgeon's 'ideal' would be a minority Labour govt with SNP support to 'keep out the tories'.

    How does that play in England, both last week and in the future?

    It was the final nail in the coffin for Ed....any suggestion of that went down like a bucket of cold sick in England and it was repeated ad nauseam by the Tories / Tory friendly press.
    Interesting that Ed didn't categorically rule out a deal with the SNP until about half way through the campaign IIRC. His advisers should have seen the danger a lot earlier.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    TP Andy JS 10 years is normally enough for the electorate to stomach most governments and the trend is for UNS to be exceeded in the marginals, small parties do not come into play in Tory v Labour marginal swings

    I stick with my prediction that both main parties will lose votes at the next election to smaller parties like the Greens. The LDs will recover to some extent, the SNP will hold most of their seats. I don't see a massive swing happening between the two main parties. But it's far too early of course.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lloyds 5% below book or w/e share offer will be the first giveaway by the Gov't I think. I didn't realise how much of a rick the Post Office one was last time and intend to take advantage this time ^^;

    Yes, it is only scandalous if a Labour government sells things too cheaply; ironically, gold was, of course, sold at the market price.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lloyds 5% below book or w/e share offer will be the first giveaway by the Gov't I think. I didn't realise how much of a rick the Post Office one was last time and intend to take advantage this time ^^;

    Yes, it is only scandalous if a Labour government sells things too cheaply; ironically, gold was, of course, sold at the market price.
    Yes, market price after announcing he'd be selling a bucket load of gold, driving the price down! (Not to mention it was sold at basically the exact bottom of the market).
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lloyds 5% below book or w/e share offer will be the first giveaway by the Gov't I think. I didn't realise how much of a rick the Post Office one was last time and intend to take advantage this time ^^;

    I made my £300 odd quid out of the PO shares, but I'm not so sure lloyds shares will give a repeat bonus.

    A 5% discount on the market price probably makes it vaguely worthwhile. If you want to buy some banking shares anyway then it's a reasonable deal, but nowt special. Then again, I'm no expert. I'll probably take them up on the offer and put £1000 of my GE2015 winnings in an S&S isa, but with no illusions of getting a quick profit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Twitter said:

    John Brewin ‏@JohnBrewinESPN

    Chuka Umunna reminds me of the type of person who says, "thank you for the opportunity, Lord Sugar."

    Or in this case, "Thank you for the opportunity, Lord Mandelson."
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    PhilipThompson The opposite, if the LDs elect Farron he is far more likely to restore Labour to LD tactical voting in Tory-LD marginals which disappeared under the Coalition

    I agree we will have to see how the new Labour leader does, but Cooper and Umunna seem, to me at least, credible

    The swing that Farron does or doesn't get is neither here nor there with regards to the issue of incumbency. The incumbent bonus that Cable, Hughes etc had is gone now. The new MPs will be building up their own first time incumbent bonus. Any swing to the Liberals will need to overcome these incumbency changes as well as the current margin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS I can certainly see a swing to UKIP post EU ref from Out voting Tories but the main swing will be between the main parties, after 10 years of Tory rule there could be a mood for change

    PT The key is a return to tactical voting which won the LDs so many seats from the Tories post 1997 but stopped abruptly after 2010, incumbency is worth a couple of 100 votes at best a 1000 rarely more

    Night
  • If Charles comes on, tell him to donate his £5 to this site's upkeep.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Labour's position in the marginals looks very bad, but so it was for them in 1987, and for the Conservatives in 2001. Parties recover.

    The Conservatives won 37%. That lead is far from overwhelming.
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