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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership contest: the betting has it down to fi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership contest: the betting has it down to five

I don’t know about others but I’ve been betting on the next LAB leader for almost five years. There was a time when EdM’s fortunes looked very grim indeed and the story then was that Mr&Mrs Balls were planning a coup that would see Yvette take on the flag carrying role.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Out of those I'm on Kendall and Burnham (I've backed a couple of long shots too), thinking along similar lines to yourself that they'll go for someone as unlike EdM as possible. If it was still the old system rather than OMOV I'd have gone much stronger on Burnham.

    Unfortunately I got on Dan Jarvis, I still think he would have been the best of the lot based on his background and life experience, but respect his reasons for withdrawing. He did the right thing to make his mind up quickly, too, even if it wasn't great for my Betfair balance!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Second!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Looking at that heartening list I'm reminded of Gore Vidal's "One does not bring a measuring rod to Lilliput".
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Or as my mother said "Telling everyone you're fat, doesn't make me thin"
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Looking at that heartening list I'm reminded of Gore Vidal's "One does not bring a measuring rod to Lilliput".

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Astonished at Chuka's front-runner status. Spooky note to Lab to be opened 8 May 2020: this was lost from the moment the English Obama edited his own Wikipedia entry.

    OTOH and conversely I am sad to see little Hodges limbering up for another five years of saying the Labour leader is crap. He needs to broaden his register. And even if he's right the returns are so diminishing, it puts me in mind of the Midnight Express bloke in real life going back to Turkey to have another go.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Does Burnham have a brother? Because I think he will get it.
    Happy days.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Mims Davies, new Tory MP for Eastleigh:

    "Favourite music - I'm an 80's pop girl. Adore Spandau Ballet, Madonna & INXS!"

    http://www.mimsdavies.org.uk/about-mims-davies
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Of these we know that Chukka and Kendall are runners.

    The key is to be on Betfair when Yvette rules herself in or out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    UKIP seems to be where all the action is tonight:

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 8m8 minutes ago
    Glad to see that a bit of a Spartacus moment is happening on twitter among senior UKIP people in support of @DouglasCarswell

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 48m48 minutes ago
    Whoever is briefing against @DouglasCarswell does not have UKIP's best interests at heart. Idea he would do anything "improper" is absurd.

    Tim Aker MEP retweeted

    Steven Woolfe MEP @Steven_Woolfe · 15m 15 minutes ago

    Those briefing against @DouglasCarswell must stop. He is a man of integrity and honour and that is to be respected.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    FPT:
    hucks67 said:

    RobD said:

    hucks67 said:

    Cameron could not elect loads of new Lords, because there is a limit on how many and when they can be appointed. Plus it relates to how many MP's they got. Labour and SNP would be also appointing a relevant number.

    The House of Lords will block and amend quite a lot of legislation. Therefore I suspect that the parliament act will be used more often than before, as I don't think Cameron would be that bothered about causing any constitutional crisis.

    Is this a statutory limit, or a convention? Didn't Asquith threaten to flood the chamber with new peers to get his budget through in 1909?
    I think this was legislated for under Tony Blair and not just a convention. Othewise the government party could just flood the place and get all their legislation through.

    Do you know which act it was legislated in?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Have you tried Heyday TV? I have it on FreeSat and assume it's on FreeView too - it's got some super stuff on there.
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Mims Davies, new Tory MP for Eastleigh:

    "Favourite music - I'm an 80's pop girl. Adore Spandau Ballet, Madonna & INXS!"

    http://www.mimsdavies.org.uk/about-mims-davies

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I've said it before, and I'll say it again, because it's very important if you're betting on this market. MPs no longer have a say, other than at the nomination stage. The contest will be decided in a single college, not three separate colleges as before, of one member (or affiliate, in practice union member) one vote. Crucually, the voting system is AV, which favours the least unpopular candidate rather than the one who can get most support in the first round.

    To my mind that make the odds on Chuka too short - there will surely be a lot of activists and union members who don't think a smooth-talking London lawyer is the right person to lead the party. Of the others, Andy B is well set (assuming he stands) to pick up a lot of second and third prefs, as he is very popular.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Looking at that list, I see a cause for optimism among the Lib Dems and Greens.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again, because it's very important if you're betting on this market. MPs no longer have a say, other than at the nomination stage. The contest will be decided in a single college, not three separate colleges as before, of one member (or affiliate, in practice union member) one vote. Crucually, the voting system is AV, which favours the least unpopular candidate rather than the one who can get most support in the first round.

    To my mind that make the odds on Chuka too short - there will surely be a lot of activists and union members who don't think a smooth-talking London lawyer is the right person to lead the party. Of the others, Andy B is well set (assuming he stands) to pick up a lot of second and third prefs, as he is very popular.

    Burnham on the third count, having been second or third on first preferences, is a Tory dream.

  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    FPT
    Mr Navabi says -- ''We already have two very distinct rings: the inner Eurozone, and the non-Eurozone group, of which the UK is of course the dominant but not the only member.''

    Yes. Your other remarks in that comment were valid ones. Your point quoted above draws me to think that a better analogy for the UK and others is not 'two speed' but 'orbits'. We can circle the EU (Or rather the aims of the EU) in a different (more distant? more secure?) orbit.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Yvette Cooper would be the best person for Labour as she is very good at holding her opposite number to account. She would do really well against Cameron at PMQ's.

    Labours real problem is how they organise the party. Some how they have got to raise more funds to fight elections and this means attracting a large number of new members.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again, because it's very important if you're betting on this market. MPs no longer have a say, other than at the nomination stage. The contest will be decided in a single college, not three separate colleges as before, of one member (or affiliate, in practice union member) one vote. Crucually, the voting system is AV, which favours the least unpopular candidate rather than the one who can get most support in the first round.

    To my mind that make the odds on Chuka too short - there will surely be a lot of activists and union members who don't think a smooth-talking London lawyer is the right person to lead the party. Of the others, Andy B is well set (assuming he stands) to pick up a lot of second and third prefs, as he is very popular.

    Burnham on the third count, having been second or third on first preferences, is a Tory dream.

    Burnham would be a Tory dream however he won! On the other hand I'm not sure Chuka or Yvette would be any less of a Tory dream. I don't know enough about how Liz Kendall would perform under pressure to have a view on her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    John Rentoul has posted this Survation poll from last November where voters were shown video clips of potential candidates. 50% thought Umunna charismatic, 68% normal, 58% in-touch, 40% trustworthy, 72% intelligent, 70% would consider voting for him. Umunna led on every category except intelligence, where Cooper led, and toughness, where Burnham led.

    Of the candidates shown all were considered better than Ed Miliband apart from Balls, Cooper by 18%, Hunt by 6%, Burnham by 16%, Umunna by 30%.
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/05/27/chuka-umunna-vs-yvette-cooper-for-labour-leadership/

    A similar newsnight poll by Frank Luntz helped Cameron win the Tory leadership in 2005
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again, because it's very important if you're betting on this market. MPs no longer have a say, other than at the nomination stage. The contest will be decided in a single college, not three separate colleges as before, of one member (or affiliate, in practice union member) one vote. Crucually, the voting system is AV, which favours the least unpopular candidate rather than the one who can get most support in the first round.

    To my mind that make the odds on Chuka too short - there will surely be a lot of activists and union members who don't think a smooth-talking London lawyer is the right person to lead the party. Of the others, Andy B is well set (assuming he stands) to pick up a lot of second and third prefs, as he is very popular.

    You mean, "one member (or affiliate, in practice union member *who is registered as a Labour party supporter*)". I don't know how much difference this will make.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again, because it's very important if you're betting on this market. MPs no longer have a say, other than at the nomination stage. The contest will be decided in a single college, not three separate colleges as before, of one member (or affiliate, in practice union member) one vote. Crucually, the voting system is AV, which favours the least unpopular candidate rather than the one who can get most support in the first round.

    To my mind that make the odds on Chuka too short - there will surely be a lot of activists and union members who don't think a smooth-talking London lawyer is the right person to lead the party. Of the others, Andy B is well set (assuming he stands) to pick up a lot of second and third prefs, as he is very popular.

    Burnham on the third count, having been second or third on first preferences, is a Tory dream.

    Looking at that list, the bar for a labour leader has been set very low. Just what is it that any leader will be leading ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    Thin gruel indeed...

    [XXXXXXX] Will Never Be Prime Minister
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    antifrank said:

    UKIP seems to be where all the action is tonight:

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 8m8 minutes ago
    Glad to see that a bit of a Spartacus moment is happening on twitter among senior UKIP people in support of @DouglasCarswell

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 48m48 minutes ago
    Whoever is briefing against @DouglasCarswell does not have UKIP's best interests at heart. Idea he would do anything "improper" is absurd.

    Tim Aker MEP retweeted

    Steven Woolfe MEP @Steven_Woolfe · 15m 15 minutes ago

    Those briefing against @DouglasCarswell must stop. He is a man of integrity and honour and that is to be respected.

    It is interesting to see Patrick O'Flynn and Steven Woolfe coming out in support of Carswell. Both are on the left of UKIP.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Flightpathl said:

    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again, because it's very important if you're betting on this market. MPs no longer have a say, other than at the nomination stage. The contest will be decided in a single college, not three separate colleges as before, of one member (or affiliate, in practice union member) one vote. Crucually, the voting system is AV, which favours the least unpopular candidate rather than the one who can get most support in the first round.

    To my mind that make the odds on Chuka too short - there will surely be a lot of activists and union members who don't think a smooth-talking London lawyer is the right person to lead the party. Of the others, Andy B is well set (assuming he stands) to pick up a lot of second and third prefs, as he is very popular.

    Burnham on the third count, having been second or third on first preferences, is a Tory dream.

    Looking at that list, the bar for a labour leader has been set very low. Just what is it that any leader will be leading ?
    The lack of talent on that list really is astounding.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    I do hope this openly racist student union isn't getting any public funding:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/goldsmiths-university-diversity-officer-in-racism-row-i-cant-be-racist-because-im-an-ethnic-minority-woman-10243202.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    RN Any of Burnham, Cooper or Umunna could beat Osborne in 2020 in my view
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Is there a market on Carswell returning to the Tory fold before the next GE?
    I reckon that anything better than 5-1 represents value.
    Anyone interested by 9.00 pm tonight in offering me say their £60 against my tenner on such an eventuality?
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    edited May 2015
    As someone who is anti-Tory (but not in the Labour party, I hasten to add), the one candidate I *do not* want to see Labour go with is Chuka Umunna. Like Ed Miliband but in some ways worse, I can't see him playing well with many potential Labour voters who didn't do so this time around outside of London and maybe a few university seats.

    Others that lack appeal for me... Yvette Cooper wears the "Mrs Balls" albatross, and as for Tristram Hunt, does it even need to be said?
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again, because it's very important if you're betting on this market. MPs no longer have a say, other than at the nomination stage. The contest will be decided in a single college, not three separate colleges as before, of one member (or affiliate, in practice union member) one vote. Crucually, the voting system is AV, which favours the least unpopular candidate rather than the one who can get most support in the first round.

    To my mind that make the odds on Chuka too short - there will surely be a lot of activists and union members who don't think a smooth-talking London lawyer is the right person to lead the party. Of the others, Andy B is well set (assuming he stands) to pick up a lot of second and third prefs, as he is very popular.

    Burnham on the third count, having been second or third on first preferences, is a Tory dream.

    Burnham would be a Tory dream however he won! On the other hand I'm not sure Chuka or Yvette would be any less of a Tory dream. I don't know enough about how Liz Kendall would perform under pressure to have a view on her.
    I was genuinely worried about Jarvis. I'm not troubled by any of the current field.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Where's Rachel? I like her :lol:

    I don't think Chuka Can't will be PM
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MP_SE said:

    They will not accept a two speed EU as it will only tempt those on the inside to move to the outside thus undermining ever closer union.

    I'm not so sure about that (although I don't like the phrase 'two-speed', as it implies the same destination). We already have two very distinct rings: the inner Eurozone, and the non-Eurozone group, of which the UK is of course the dominant but not the only member. It is true, I think, that a few years ago the EU view was that eventually everyone would join the Euro, and the UK's anomalous position was a temporary little difficulty.

    Since the Eurozone crisis, I believe that things are seen quite differently. It's quite clear now that the UK at least, and probably the other non-Eurozone countries, are never going to adopt the Euro. Furthermore it's clear that being over-zealous on insisting on Eurozone membership has been a disaster for the core as well as for the periphery, and it's also clear that the structural problems of the Eurozone are deep-seated and do need to be fixed. All that points in a direction of codifying the de-facto two-speed (or whatever we call it) Europe into something more coherent.

    Our EU friends don't want the UK to leave, but also don't want to be dragged back (as they see it) by the UK. There's the essence of a deal there.
    I agree with a lot of what you have said there. It may be possible to fix the EU but it will require radical changes. The EU has a long history of poor decision making so I have little confidence in their ability to change. This is why I am hoping for some unforeseen event which forces them to act. Grexit is hardly unforeseeable but may throw up some interesting results.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tickip-tockip

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32707357

    What price is Douglas C for Lab leader?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    handandmouse See the Survation video poll of voters I posted earlier, Umunna leads pretty much across the board with floating voters, he needs to win voters who backed Blair then Cameron in the suburbs, not Alf Garnett
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Ave_it said:

    Where's Rachel? I like her :lol:

    I don't think Chuka Can't will be PM

    Puddin' Club, not that that should count against her.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Mims Davies, new Tory MP for Eastleigh:

    "Favourite music - I'm an 80's pop girl. Adore Spandau Ballet, Madonna & INXS!"

    http://www.mimsdavies.org.uk/about-mims-davies

    I saw her last week in Hedge End . She does take the eye!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2015
    I may have mentioned that i've asked for yvette as loto since circa 2011 and that bet stake isn't getting any interest the longer we have to wait!!!

    come on girl, make your mind up!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    HYUFD said:

    RN Any of Burnham, Cooper or Umunna could beat Osborne in 2020 in my view

    A 10% lead over the Tories? It would take a real leader to get that without the Tories majorly mucking up. They aren't. We've also got to bare in mind hat the Tories will be able to pick their leader according to who is best placed to beat Labour. If they picked someone like Mordaunt, Truss, Javid or Gyimah who aren't the typical pale, male and stale politicians as well as having some charisma then they could cause Labour some real problems.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 12m12 minutes ago
    Rumour among Labour MPs is that Yvette Cooper campaign launches tomorrow ie Wednesday.

    She needs to surprise us with some new thinking. She isn't going to win on inevitability alone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Ave It The same was said about Obama becoming president
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    antifrank said:

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 12m12 minutes ago
    Rumour among Labour MPs is that Yvette Cooper campaign launches tomorrow ie Wednesday.

    She needs to surprise us with some new thinking. She isn't going to win on inevitability alone.

    nice timing!
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    Not one of that field looks like PM material.

    Still, much water to flow under Westminster bridge before we come the that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    shadsy is taking his revenge on us:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges · 53m53 minutes ago
    Pleased to announce those nice people at @LadPolitics will be sponsoring Hodges Naked Streak.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    Mike: have donated. Thanks once again to you and all those involved for a great site.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    HYUFD I don't think that tells us anything worthwhile. A leader is needed who can withstand the smears of the right-wing press. That's not "British Obama" Umunna.

    The one who stood the best chance by some distance, looking at it from that POV, was Dan Jarvis; sadly he's not in the running. I don't know nearly enough about Liz Kendall, but from my p.o.v. it would be difficult for her to be a worse choice than any of the other four!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    HYUFD said:

    John Rentoul has posted this Survation poll from last November where voters were shown video clips of potential candidates. 50% thought Umunna charismatic, 68% normal, 58% in-touch, 40% trustworthy, 72% intelligent, 70% would consider voting for him. Umunna led on every category except intelligence, where Cooper led, and toughness, where Burnham led.

    Of the candidates shown all were considered better than Ed Miliband apart from Balls, Cooper by 18%, Hunt by 6%, Burnham by 16%, Umunna by 30%.
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/05/27/chuka-umunna-vs-yvette-cooper-for-labour-leadership/

    A similar newsnight poll by Frank Luntz helped Cameron win the Tory leadership in 2005

    Didn't Chukka say something along the lines of all UKIP voters are thick and don't know how to use the internet?

    The only conceivable 2020 Labour winner out of the list of five is Liz Kendall.

    Chukka and Tristam - very bad fit for a working class, man of the people, party. Mrs Balls and Mr Mid Staffs shouldn't bother standing. The ship has sailed on that cohort. They are Labour's IDS stage.

    Liz Kendall is seemingly 'ordinary' and unburdened by Labour's past.

    Labour really do have too few new faces, and by elections are going to be a real bun fight between them and the Greens and Libs as they scramble to get some new blood into parliament.

    There are quite a few old souls that need to be encouraged into retirement for Labour's short term good.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    HYUFD said:

    handandmouse See the Survation video poll of voters I posted earlier, Umunna leads pretty much across the board with floating voters, he needs to win voters who backed Blair then Cameron in the suburbs, not Alf Garnett

    He wins on short clips, yes (according to polling...) but his major weakness imo is how he isn't much apart from a smart suit; whenever he is actually questioned at any depth he goes into a big flap and looks silly/vacuous.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    I recall sseing Yvette Cooper being grillowed by Brillo about 2-3 years ago .... she was quite hopeless and was restricted to repeating over and over again the same weak, inadequate response. I remember thinking at the time that she was unsuited to ever becoming leader of he Labour Party.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    HYUFD said:

    Ave It The same was said about Obama becoming president

    Apart from not being white there are few to no parallels. Stop bleating on about bloody Obama.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Another thought: whatever your thoughts on Barack Obama, it cannot be denied that he has a gift for oratory. I suspect (and Chameleon's post supports this) that Umunna is going to seem like a vastly inferior politician on the basis of that foolishly self-set yardstick.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave It The same was said about Obama becoming president

    Apart from not being white there are few to no parallels. Stop bleating on about bloody Obama.
    Obama is 50% white and 50% black. He is neither one nor the other. He may claim one heritage over the other as it gives him an advantage.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MP_SE said:

    antifrank said:

    UKIP seems to be where all the action is tonight:

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 8m8 minutes ago
    Glad to see that a bit of a Spartacus moment is happening on twitter among senior UKIP people in support of @DouglasCarswell

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 48m48 minutes ago
    Whoever is briefing against @DouglasCarswell does not have UKIP's best interests at heart. Idea he would do anything "improper" is absurd.

    Tim Aker MEP retweeted

    Steven Woolfe MEP @Steven_Woolfe · 15m 15 minutes ago

    Those briefing against @DouglasCarswell must stop. He is a man of integrity and honour and that is to be respected.

    It is interesting to see Patrick O'Flynn and Steven Woolfe coming out in support of Carswell. Both are on the left of UKIP.
    What on earth is the left of UKIP?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 1m1 minute ago
    Ahem: turns out the Yvette Cooper leadership bid is on Thursday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    blackburn63 said:

    MP_SE said:

    antifrank said:

    UKIP seems to be where all the action is tonight:

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 8m8 minutes ago
    Glad to see that a bit of a Spartacus moment is happening on twitter among senior UKIP people in support of @DouglasCarswell

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 48m48 minutes ago
    Whoever is briefing against @DouglasCarswell does not have UKIP's best interests at heart. Idea he would do anything "improper" is absurd.

    Tim Aker MEP retweeted

    Steven Woolfe MEP @Steven_Woolfe · 15m 15 minutes ago

    Those briefing against @DouglasCarswell must stop. He is a man of integrity and honour and that is to be respected.

    It is interesting to see Patrick O'Flynn and Steven Woolfe coming out in support of Carswell. Both are on the left of UKIP.
    What on earth is the left of UKIP?

    All parties have their left and right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon Osborne will be the favourite and is now likely to run, the likes of Javid are Osborne loyalists and will back him. I could see a result something like Labour 36-37%, Tory 27-28%, UKIP 18% if EU ref produces a narrow In vote and Tory splits. Of course the election produced above average swing in the marginals, it could produce above average swingback too
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    I was going to join the Labour party on Friday. But I decided to wait and see. The choice of leader will say a lot about whether Labour is serious about becoming a modern political party. It's hard to give money to an organisation that chose Ed Miliband before it shows it has realised what a catastrophic mistake that was.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Ahem: turns out the Yvette Cooper leadership bid is on Thursday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    handandmouse Fox launched huge attacks on Obama, he still run, and the prospect of being the UK's first black PM is another factor
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Go Javid 2020!

    Boris won't get it.

    Although George might.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    chestnut If Labour voters have not already defected to UKIP under Miliband they will not in 2020, it is suburban middle class voters Labour needs to win back
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Ave_it said:

    Go Javid 2020!

    Boris won't get it.

    Although George might.

    Hear hear!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Chameleon Both mixed race, both seen as elite, metropolitan lawyers, both initially seen as not having a hope, both probably beating tough women to win (Hillary, Yvette Cooper) a lot of parallels actually
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Re. Burnham: I'm not convinced that Mid Staffs is the dealbreaker that some of you appear to think (well, except in Staffordshire perhaps).

    Sure, the right-wing press will probably bring it up to try and discredit him, but by 2020, a scandal that happened over a decade ago probably isn't going to seem that relevant to the majority of voters. Plus, who knows what new scandals may arise between now and then given the cuts planned by this government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    handandmouse I remember in the 2012 election it was pretty much 'teleprompter Obama' on here
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ishmael_X said:

    Astonished at Chuka's front-runner status. Spooky note to Lab to be opened 8 May 2020: this was lost from the moment the English Obama edited his own Wikipedia entry.

    OTOH and conversely I am sad to see little Hodges limbering up for another five years of saying the Labour leader is crap. He needs to broaden his register. And even if he's right the returns are so diminishing, it puts me in mind of the Midnight Express bloke in real life going back to Turkey to have another go.

    To be fair to Hodges he may have been a broken record in saying that Ed is Crap, but he was right.

    What's more obnoxious is seeing all these people who were saying just two weeks ago that Ed was great and will be PM now turning around and saying they knew he was crap all along. Like John Prescott who was on HIGNFY a few weeks ago and was quite triumphalist insisting Labour were going to win and backing Miliband - only to be turning on him as soon as the votes were counted.

    Its meaningless to say you knew he was bad all along if you were saying he was good all along but never said anything. Hypocrites. Hodges deserves an "I told you so moment" in comparison.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato said:

    Have you tried Heyday TV? I have it on FreeSat and assume it's on FreeView too - it's got some super stuff on there.

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Mims Davies, new Tory MP for Eastleigh:

    "Favourite music - I'm an 80's pop girl. Adore Spandau Ballet, Madonna & INXS!"

    http://www.mimsdavies.org.uk/about-mims-davies

    No, I'll see if I can get it on FreeView.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    peter_from_putney said:

    I recall sseing Yvette Cooper being grillowed by Brillo about 2-3 years ago .... she was quite hopeless and was restricted to repeating over and over again the same weak, inadequate response. I remember thinking at the time that she was unsuited to ever becoming leader of he Labour Party.

    Peter Allen did the same on R5 years ago when she was the housing minister forcing the epic HIPS in to the market.

    Allen read out a list of all the industry bodies who advised against doing it and asked was she really saying she knew better than all of them that HIPS were a great idea - she answered 'yes I do'.

    And yet I've got a bet on her.... Labour certainty is so endearing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Many people said the same about Obama and voters in the Midwest and South as they do about Umunna and voters in the Midlands and north
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Thanks Mike. I have made a donation out of my GE winnings. Good luck with the fundraising efforts.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    handandmouse said:

    Re. Burnham: I'm not convinced that Mid Staffs is the dealbreaker that some of you appear to think (well, except in Staffordshire perhaps).

    Sure, the right-wing press will probably bring it up to try and discredit him, but by 2020, a scandal that happened over a decade ago probably isn't going to seem that relevant to the majority of voters. Plus, who knows what new scandals may arise between now and then given the cuts planned by this government.

    The Midstaff scandal was nothing to do with money.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Hilarious how Liz Kendall and formerly Dan Jarvis are widely considered great candidates whilst the obvious names are looked down on.

    I remember watching Ed on QT 7 or 8 years ago and reading about how well he performed. The grass is always greener, especially when no one has trodden on it yet.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Go Carswell UKIP leader! :lol:
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:


    Apart from not being white there are few to no parallels. Stop bleating on about bloody Obama.

    Aside from the obvious, Umunna being the self-styled "British Obama" means the comparison is inevitable.
    HYUFD said:

    handandmouse Fox launched huge attacks on Obama, he still run, and the prospect of being the UK's first black PM is another factor

    If Labour think the US and UK electoral systems and electorate are comparable enough for that to support Umunna, they're in for a nasty shock.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    maaarsh Indeed
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    All of those hopeless hopefuls for Labour leader can only be in it for the perks...cos they will get hammered in 2020
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    notme said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave It The same was said about Obama becoming president

    Apart from not being white there are few to no parallels. Stop bleating on about bloody Obama.
    Obama is 50% white and 50% black. He is neither one nor the other. He may claim one heritage over the other as it gives him an advantage.
    Or, he may genuinely identify as black. Many mixed race people do - I know from experience.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    antifrank said:

    UKIP seems to be where all the action is tonight:

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 8m8 minutes ago
    Glad to see that a bit of a Spartacus moment is happening on twitter among senior UKIP people in support of @DouglasCarswell

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep · 48m48 minutes ago
    Whoever is briefing against @DouglasCarswell does not have UKIP's best interests at heart. Idea he would do anything "improper" is absurd.

    Tim Aker MEP retweeted

    Steven Woolfe MEP @Steven_Woolfe · 15m 15 minutes ago

    Those briefing against @DouglasCarswell must stop. He is a man of integrity and honour and that is to be respected.

    Things already going sour with Carswell and UKIP, LOL?
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Philip_Thompson said:

    To be fair to Hodges he may have been a broken record in saying that Ed is Crap, but he was right.

    What's more obnoxious is seeing all these people who were saying just two weeks ago that Ed was great and will be PM now turning around and saying they knew he was crap all along.

    I've been saying Ed was crap and that all the fundamentals pointed to a Tory win all year (not so much on here, admittedly, but in conversation). Backed up with £35 on a Tory Majority on Betfair (the payoff from which is now being used to play the Labour leader market!)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    richardDodd said:

    All of those hopeless hopefuls for Labour leader can only be in it for the perks...cos they will get hammered in 2020

    CUWNBPM?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tds153: Genuinely impressed that UKIP, a party with only one MP, has already managed a backbench rebellion. Respect.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    handandmouse said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    To be fair to Hodges he may have been a broken record in saying that Ed is Crap, but he was right.

    What's more obnoxious is seeing all these people who were saying just two weeks ago that Ed was great and will be PM now turning around and saying they knew he was crap all along.

    I've been saying Ed was crap and that all the fundamentals pointed to a Tory win all year (not so much on here, admittedly, but in conversation). Backed up with £35 on a Tory Majority on Betfair (the payoff from which is now being used to play the Labour leader market!)
    You only have 10 posts on here. How could you be saying that on here "all year"?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :sunglasses:
    Scott_P said:

    @tds153: Genuinely impressed that UKIP, a party with only one MP, has already managed a backbench rebellion. Respect.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    handandmouse Obama had to win the likes of Ohio and Iowa to win the Electoral College, he could not just rack up huge majorities in New York and Chicago, Umunna, would have to do the same in the Midlands marginals, not just London, he also built a coalition incorporating suburban voters, urban voters and raised turnout amongst the young and ethnic minorities
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    CUWNBPM?

    Chuka can't

    Need to be careful spelling that
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Handandmouse..The general public might have forgotten about Mid Staffs and Burnhams role in it..but the relatives of the 1200 wont.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Lost deposits in Scotland:

    SNP: 0/59
    Conservative: 1/59
    Labour: 3/59
    Lib Dem: 47/59
    Green: 29/31
    UKIP: 41/41

    On the brightside for UKIP at least all 41 candidates made it to polling day without putting their foot in it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    notme said:

    handandmouse said:

    Re. Burnham: I'm not convinced that Mid Staffs is the dealbreaker that some of you appear to think (well, except in Staffordshire perhaps).

    Sure, the right-wing press will probably bring it up to try and discredit him, but by 2020, a scandal that happened over a decade ago probably isn't going to seem that relevant to the majority of voters. Plus, who knows what new scandals may arise between now and then given the cuts planned by this government.

    The Midstaff scandal was nothing to do with money.
    An acqaintance of mine, discussing Labour competence, brought up the Groundnuts Scheme a ay or so ago!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Has there ever been a Leader of the Opposition who hasn't at least served in the Shadow Cabinet?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Hunt is a complete non-starter, surely. Burnham is a comfort candidate. Either would be a choice so disastrous that you'd fear for Labour getting 200 seats next time. Any of the other three might have a chance, but Kendall looks the best shot.

    I imagine it will be Burnham.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    handandmouse said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    To be fair to Hodges he may have been a broken record in saying that Ed is Crap, but he was right.

    What's more obnoxious is seeing all these people who were saying just two weeks ago that Ed was great and will be PM now turning around and saying they knew he was crap all along.

    I've been saying Ed was crap and that all the fundamentals pointed to a Tory win all year (not so much on here, admittedly, but in conversation). Backed up with £35 on a Tory Majority on Betfair (the payoff from which is now being used to play the Labour leader market!)
    You only have 10 posts on here. How could you be saying that on here "all year"?
    He says "not so much on here"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SouthamObserver said:

    Hunt is a complete non-starter, surely. Burnham is a comfort candidate. Either would be a choice so disastrous that you'd fear for Labour getting 200 seats next time. Any of the other three might have a chance, but Kendall looks the best shot.

    I imagine it will be Burnham.

    ToriesForBurnham are not counting their chickens too soon...
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    GIN1138 said:

    richardDodd said:

    All of those hopeless hopefuls for Labour leader can only be in it for the perks...cos they will get hammered in 2020

    CUWNBPM?

    Chuka Umanna, Number Ten, will absolutely never know.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Got to say I don't understand Cameron's thinking behind his new Equalities Minister.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/05/12/david-cameron-appoints-anti-gay-marriage-mp-to-be-minister-for-equalities/

    There must have been someone more suitable - actually there must have been dozens of more suitable candidates. If Dinenage is so good and deserving of promotion then surely another portfolio could have been found.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    edited May 2015
    Mind you - to contradict what I've just been saying about Burnham - the possibility that the next election could come sooner than 2020 should be taken into consideration... That could be an argument for Andy Burnham (more experience in Parliament than some of the more recently-elected candidates) or against him (Mid Staffs more recent).

    I still expect cracks to begin to appear in the unity of the Tory party, primarily over Europe (there's already a hint of it over the HRA/ECHR), and with such a thin majority as they have who knows what could happen?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    Reading this:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/greens-blame-tory-majority-labours-willingness-accept-narrative-its-opponents

    Does anyone have any figures for Green Votes in Lab-Tory marginals vs majorities achieved?

    Was the Cameron insistence on SNP and Leftist small-fry in the debates a strategic triumph?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Scott_P said:

    @tds153: Genuinely impressed that UKIP, a party with only one MP, has already managed a backbench rebellion. Respect.

    LOL!!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    On my way home I listened into the R4 PM programme (5pm-6pm). Norman Smith the BBC political reporter was asked about Cameron's little speech in cabinet and Smith called it "trite".
    Can someone please explain how that is impartial BBC reporting?
    Where does impartiality give the right to have a BBC paid employee add their own derogatory label on something the Prime Minister said?
    I can call it "trite" and I have in the past attacked Cameron and Osborne. But I am not an identifiable employee of the BBC.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    SouthamObserver said:

    Hunt is a complete non-starter, surely. Burnham is a comfort candidate. Either would be a choice so disastrous that you'd fear for Labour getting 200 seats next time. Any of the other three might have a chance, but Kendall looks the best shot.

    I imagine it will be Burnham.

    Why is Hunt a non starter. I must admit I haven't followed his career closely but he spoke extremely well on John Peinaar's show on R5 on Sunday morning.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: Piers Morgan says Andrew Strauss leaving KEVIN PIETERSEN out of the team is "pure ego".

    I don't think I need to add any comment to that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @christopherhope: Ukip descends into open warfare as the party's only MP is accused of trying to get himself sacked in cash row. By me: http://t.co/hKKydudk8k
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave It The same was said about Obama becoming president

    Apart from not being white there are few to no parallels. Stop bleating on about bloody Obama.
    I thought Umunna (or someone in his office at least) made the comparison, thus meaning the seeming arrogance of it is bound to be used as a stick to beat him with.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave It The same was said about Obama becoming president

    Apart from not being white there are few to no parallels. Stop bleating on about bloody Obama.
    I thought Umunna (or someone in his office at least) made the comparison, thus meaning the seeming arrogance of it is bound to be used as a stick to beat him with.
    That's correct, by editing Umunna's Wikipedia page.
This discussion has been closed.