politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB GE15 competition: Results from the April round
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB GE15 competition: Results from the April round
Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, is providing a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize.
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Had there been a third round a day or two before the election, I would have been nowhere - all confidence had deserted me by then.
If we believe Messina / Crosby, all this about "on the day late swing" was worth a tiny amount.
Poor Ed he was still convinced at 10pm on the night that he had done it.
lost in Colne Valley by 3.1% in 2005
lost in Solihull by 0.3% in 2010
she has won Erewash this time. When she selected, I thought she could have missed again by a small margin. In the end she increased Tory majority from 5.2 to 7.4%
On Labour side there is Sue Hayman
she stood in Preseli in 2005 and lost by 1.6%
in 2010 she stood in Halesowen and Rowley Regis and lost by 4.1%
this week she held Workington with a 12.2% majority. Her success was more predictable.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6mb2iroir0odk1h/2015results.csv?dl=0
Is a csv file of the UK election results, scraped from the BBC website.
It's just the absolute bare minimum - excel should open it up fine but if you are using something else then beware of the "Beer, Baccy and Scratchings Party", stupid comma. Should be banned.
If I get time will will work on this more and scrape extra info and format up useful stuff like winning party
Bugger.
Bugger, bugger, bugger.
Only hope is that there were talking of Greens in England not nationally as they are separate parties?
The party that leads on best leader/economic competence wins the election. Matt Singh made this clear.
But, but, but, there are no Tory ground troops, Grant Shapps is Crap, IOS told us...
Just be interesting to see how it all comes and also how it compares to the pollsters "WoC" numbers.
I think one of the problems for politcal anoraks is we overcomplicate things in our bubble.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
http://blog.core-ed.org/derek/files/2008/10/digital-lemmings.jpg
BTW What did you use to scrape the data?
Her gut instinct was far more reliable than any of my detailed assessments of polls or subsamples or marginals. People simply didn't want Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.
In Con/Lab marginals, the swing is 1% to the Conservatives. In Con/Lib Dem battles, it's 11% to the Conservatives. Outstanding targeting by the Tories.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/comments/190/IOS
What gets me is that I have always believed gut feeling is more important in elections, but I still completely misread how much that gut feeling would impact things.
Dave and Nicola what a team - first they destroy Labour then they agree to potpone nationalism.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3075810/There-NOT-going-referendum-Cameron-slaps-claims-Scottish-independence-agenda-stunning-SNP-landslide.html
@MrHarryCole: Labour were already panicking about their supposedly 'superior ground operation' last summer: http://t.co/b7Ev5Jfz1c
How many times did "Ed is Crap" appear on PB.
We all knew.
We just didn't realise the rest of the country knew too.
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=EICIPM+site:politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com&safe=off
IOS: Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/652675/#Comment_652675
Come on Andy (sorry Stella) !!
Electorate :
Turnout : %
Surname Forename Votes Elected Description
Brace Richard Steven 230 I am a Thorp Arch Councillor
Crooks Amy Maria 289 ELECTED Time for change
Duxbury Graham 269 ELECTED Parish Councillor and Neighbourhood Plan Member
Richardson John 231 ELECTED Time For Change
Rodger Andrew Donald 231 ELECTED Time For Change
Smyth Margaret Lilian Pittam 235 ELECTED Parish Councillor and Member Neighbourhood Plan
The unluckiest loser of all time?
Maybe the amount of threads both appeared in? Multiply that by how many times likely mentioned in both and I'd say we're looking at about 10000+ as a conservative estimate.
Labour has form on this. They tried under Blair to introduce legislation which would have put comedians at risk if they satirised Islam hence the opposition to it led by Rowan Atkinson and others. So those of us concerned by what Milliband proposed were right to be concerned that (a) any law would be drawn so loosely as to have that result; and (b) it would become the thin end of the wedge and end up silencing criticisms of Muslims and Islam.
And I feel the same whichever party proposes something similar. Freedom of thought is far too valuable to be given up just because some politician wants to harness a few extra votes.
The real issue here is that political parties need to engage with voters from ethnic / religious minorities as individual citizens not through "community leaders" as if people who are Muslim or Catholic or of Sri Lankan origin are somehow too dumb to be addressed as grown up individuals but can only be spoken to through some intermediator. And this all the more so when there is an undoubted issue with extremist views and behaviour among some in some communities. Treat Muslims as grown ups not as victims to be coddled and patronised. And on occasion some speaking truth to power within that community may be needed.
What needs to stop is this pandering to permanently offended cry-baby so-called community "leaders" who are bullies and often have a quite sinister agenda, completely at odds with the values and expectations of a Western liberal democracy. Doing so just feeds the extremist meme rather than confront and eliminate it. That's all.
There are no votes in doing this for other religions but the reason for this is not that they are necessarily more peaceful - there have been some demonstrations by Sikh extremists with the intention of preventing the publication of material they dont' like - but that the whole "Islamophobia" shtick is not a word which came out of nowhere. It was developed by those with a specifically Islamist agenda with the intention of framing - on the Islamists' own terms - any debate about Islam (or about the Islamists' version of Islam) and preying - quite successfully - on the understandable desire of non-Muslims not to be rude about another person's religion or to attack someone different, especially if the difference between racism and criticising an idea/a religion could be elided by use of a convenient catch-all word. It needed to be challenged not pandered to. The fact that it hasn't been has been one of the factors in Rotherham and Tower Hamlets etc and it is about time that this nonsense stopped.
The pb median would be the 180th person, but median on accuracy on multiple columns may not be very valid.
Ah well, I'd rather be happy than right.
I've been right about the last two Labour leaders being as useful as a Catholic Priest at an Orange Order meeting.
kle4Really this election seems to be one of those where people have been fooled by the closeness of the polls into thinking the outcome will actually be really close. As we know, tie on votes is a Labour win, barring any bizarre unforeseen shifts around the place, but the narrative of tieing in the polls with an expectation of shy tory syndrome has led to it being considered a tighter race than in fact it is. Ed faces an awkward aftermath, but that's not the same as it being too close to call.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/660378/#Comment_660378
Ok, now I'm just being a masochist.
34 women and 19 men
7 BAME
4 LGTB
3 retreads
Conservative new intake: 74 MPs
47 men, 27 women (if I didn't misjudge some first names)
7 BAME
LD new intake: no-one
This election result was truly catastrophic for the centre-left. It's simply earth shattering. The Conservative achievement of a workable majority is a game changer.
If boundary reform goes through, which it will, the Conservatives will probably gain a further 15 seats in England, at the expense of Labour. That makes the gap 189 seats to 334 seats. The Liberal Democrats will still hold eight seats, but who knows if they'll hold onto any under the new boundaries?
I think they're out of the picture for a generation.
If EV4EL goes through, it gives the Conservatives a 135 seat majority in England going into the 2020 general election. That truly is Thatcher landslide territory, and a working majority in England will be crucial to any future UK government.
The Conservative vote-share and result under FPTP should be no real crumb of comfort: over 55% of the English voted for clear centre-right parties favouring tax-cuts, protection of defence, immigration control, EV4EL and Euroscepticism. The equivalent figures for the Left (Labour + Green) are just a shade over 35%. PR is no counter-argument: we've have had a Con-UKIP coalition with an ever bigger majority.
All of that's before we consider the remarkable ineptitude and lack of self-awareness within the Labour party. Further blunders could easily see it lose a swathe of seats in the North East to UKIP, just as happened in Scotland this time.
Only a total and fundamental rethink will now do. Or the Left will be out of power for a very long time indeed.
The thing that made it easiest is the the A-Z constituency page listing had the links for all constituencies and it just hid or showed elements depending on what letter you selected. So rather than having to fetch 26 pages (and work out the calling convention) I just had to do 1 fetch and then iterate through 650 Urls
(starts at 10 secs)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNlKQrastLc&feature=youtu.be&t=10s
Catching up on a couple of threads over the weekend (I've been so exhausted and partied out, I've been taking a break from pb.com) it sounds like you had a very good night.
Congratulations.
I ended up about £1,600 up overall. It would have been £400 higher, but I could only close down my hung parliament positions at a large potential profit loss.
Almost all my consistency bets game in (but annoyed at Ynys Mon and surprised Birmingham Northfield and Edgbaston didn't go) but made quite a bit of cash on Libdemgeddon, including Bath and Cheltenham which I had repeatedly and heavily tipped on here.
.
I also think Labour would like to go for a woman leader this time. The issue is that apparently she's a Blairite, which won't go down well in certain quarters. And there is the problem people might think 'who?' and see her as inexperienced. Interesting one, nevertheless.