The next five years on here are going to be dismal.
No - our blue honeymoon will end sooner or later... but we should (should) have a decade of Labour out of power now that is a source of joy for all surely?
Anyway Liz Truss has just walked in to R5 studio... 'her smile so big she's warmed up the room' says Jon P
I think the Tories need to be very careful. There's been a remarkable lack of enthusiasm surrounding their re-election, just people shrugging 'we couldn't let Miliband and Balls in.' Cameron is going to have a tricky time particularly over a European referendum that will split his party. He's got to deliver 5 more years of austerity with an economic outlook that seems dubious at best. The biggest current account deficit in modern times, a total lack of investment in the future going on and a risible savings ratio and add in a financial system that is probably still way over-leveraged. When the next crash happens you can rest assured we probably won't be well prepared. The Tory victory I suspect owed much to faith in their long term plan but people will agitate at some point when
I've been through the results compiling Labour targets for 2020 on the current boundaries. I assumed that confining myself to seats where Labour requires a swing of up to 8% would yield them the 94 gains they need for a majority. In fact it's yielded them just 87 seats. Therefore the swing needed is more than 8%; it must be around 8.5% or even 9%. On UNS that means they would have to be ahead in the national vote share by around 11%.
And how do the Liberal Democrats recover from this in the south-west, and elsewhere, to recapture the seats they lost from the Tories? .
The SW problem feels particularly acute (although that may just be because that is where I reside). Other areas are essentially no go areas for a long time, so aren't as important in terms of the initial attempts at recovery, but they were strong here in the SW, a place where outside of some specific areas people just have no experience of voting Labour if they are not Tory voters. Now the LDs were forced into 4th place behind UKIP and Lab in many places - if Labour can become the natural second placers to the Tories (even if they have no hope of winning the seats), it prevents the LDs from staging a recovery to fight for their old seats.
Yes. I do wonder where the LDs should start.
Perhaps a "soft" rebuild (focussing on recruiting party members and obtaining councillors) in areas of historic liberal strength, rather than going straight for parliamentary targets?
Apparently 6000 new members have joined the LDs since Thursday. Does it require a defeat to get people to join a party nowadays?
Clegg has owned the defeat by taking them down to 8 seats. I think they've started moving better than the Labour party though. Looks like a straight fight, Farron vs Lamb to me.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
they don't see the light at the end of the tunnel. Cameron may be able to manage it and Labour's problems may be worse, leaving aside the Lib Dem stupor, but it will be another hard slog.
Leaving aside the pollsters, the fact that Labour and the Lib Dems were so surprised by the results does tell us that the Labour and Lib Dem canvassing machines are completely f**king useless. Their canvassing system is full of duff data. The 4 million conversations that Labour boasted about were a complete waste of time. The Conservatives by all accounts had the worst software to process their data, but they can replace the system. Fundamentally it is the old rule of GIGO.
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
I think we're very traumatised by what happened in the 1990s. We fear it, but I don't think the same thing will happen again.
There might be 5-10 MPs who act like that, but not 30-40 MPs as some might fear. I think most Conservatives will be delighted at the prospect of locking the centre-left out of power for a generation, and will see the bigger picture.
Even 5 to 10 MPs acting like a bunch of bastards, can bring this government to its knees.
That said, I was impressed by the tone of Bill Cash and Owen Paterson today, I also think they don't want a replay of the Major years, and will give Dave the benefit of the doubt up and until Dave gets his deal from the EU.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Are you making a spreadsheet for us? Or is there already a list of seats by majority somewhere.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
Well done you.
PB donate button would be handy for me please!
I'm sure many have noted that Cammo was derided for saying 'we just need 23 more seats' in the last few days of the campaign over and over. They ended up 24 of course.
The next five years on here are going to be dismal.
Like when the Tories were in the wilderness and Sean Fear was the lone tory voice..
Now if you could persuade IOS to come on here and explain what was so wonderful about the Labour ground game, I am sure everyone on here will be all ears.
The next five years on here are going to be dismal.
Why?
The already massive lack of balance in favour of the Tories, in terms of numbers of commentators, will be compounded by the fact that they now have massive structural advantages that will make progress for the Left difficult.
And even if things start going Labour's way, it'll be "Yeah, but the polls are wrong again".
Like Bane said in The Dark Knight Rises, you need them to have a little hope. Right now my best hope is that Scotland annexes down to County Durham
I think the Tories need to be very careful. There's been a remarkable lack of enthusiasm surrounding their re-election, just people shrugging 'we couldn't let Miliband and Balls in.' Cameron is going to have a tricky time particularly over a European referendum that will split his party. He's got to deliver 5 more years of austerity with an economic outlook that seems dubious at best. The biggest current account deficit in modern times, a total lack of investment in the future going on and a risible savings ratio and add in a financial system that is probably still way over-leveraged. When the next crash happens you can rest assured we probably won't be well prepared. The Tory victory I suspect owed much to faith in their long term plan but people will agitate at some point when
They have just won a stunning victory. The world looks good. It's totally understandable. But events are lining up. Calling the next GE result now is not the wisest thing to do.
The next five years on here are going to be dismal.
Nah, the Tories won't keep this united optimism and triumphalism up for 5 years. They may have learned lessons from the Major years, but Europe will still involve them tearing chunks off each other, the majority is slender and the problems are immense (while Labour cannot use those things to distract from their failings, they are still factors moving forward). Labour might mess up the response to that, but it won't be all smooth sailing for the Tories.
Just had a look at the UK's savings ratio (if one believes the CIA's figures). We ranked 146th for 2014. It's a very interesting list of countries beneath the UK.
It's hard for me to say this - as a seasoned Cameron critic - but he might actually go down as one of the most significant and successful Conservative leaders in history.
I mean in the Thatcher/Churchill class. Seriously. He could end up changing the whole political centre-of-gravity in the UK. And possibly the EU too.
I gravely underestimated him, despite enthusiastically voting for him in the 2005 leadership election. I feel embarrassed I lost faith in the last nine months.
I am rejoining the Conservative party as a member tomorrow.
As a fellow critic I'm with you on this. He's been the first incumbent PM for 100 years to increase their vote and seat share while felling his three closest rivals within an hour of each other while also making the left require a massive vote lead to get a majority.
If he manages to get meaningful reform in Europe as well as getting a balanced devolution settlement he will have shaped UK (& possibly EU) politics for the next 50 years. He manages to do that and he will go down in history, and as you say it will go Churchill, Thatcher, Cameron.
There are a lot of ifs though.
Agree 100%. That's precisely my thinking.
Once again, the parliamentary arithmetic in this election has been absolutely crucial: those six extra seats Cameron took from the Liberal Democrats to get him to 331 (rather than 325) might be responsible for changing the future direction of the whole of this country.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Tricky but not impossible. The LDs are finished and UKIP are bound to fade after 2017 so Labour will be in pole position to challenge strongly(*).
I went onto the R4 site first.. ED Balls being delusional about the Tories having a majority and Ed forming a govt.. as Cameron would have to resign.
Ed Balls x2bMP just arrived on R5 and saying the same thing now!! 'outlier of an exit poll ... ed miliband becoming prime minister in the next 48 hours.... are you safe in your seat Ed? asks Jon P
He starts laughing... 'youve got to clutch to some straws Jon as it's early in the evening and nothing much to talk about'
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
I think we're very traumatised by what happened in the 1990s. We fear it, but I don't think the same thing will happen again.
There might be 5-10 MPs who act like that, but not 30-40 MPs as some might fear. I think most Conservatives will be delighted at the prospect of locking the centre-left out of power for a generation, and will see the bigger picture.
Even 5 to 10 MPs acting like a bunch of bastards, can bring this government to its knees.
That said, I was impressed by the tone of Bill Cash and Owen Paterson today, I also think they don't want a replay of the Major years, and will give Dave the benefit of the doubt up and until Dave gets his deal from the EU.
They seem very in-line, as long as Dave gets meaningful concessions (which judging by the sounds coming from the continent, he will) it'll be fine (I hope...).
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
"We must never go into an election again giving communities like Carlisle and Pudsey the impression that the Tories were more serious than us about spreading wealth across the country.
We should equally ask how we allowed ourselves to be perceived as not on the side of wealth creators. Never again can we allow ourselves to be painted as having a problem with people eager to work hard, get on and succeed. They should know that Labour will always be their champion.”
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
I think we're very traumatised by what happened in the 1990s. We fear it, but I don't think the same thing will happen again.
There might be 5-10 MPs who act like that, but not 30-40 MPs as some might fear. I think most Conservatives will be delighted at the prospect of locking the centre-left out of power for a generation, and will see the bigger picture.
As a Kipper I have to say I don't agree with TSE.
As long as we get a fair referendum and are not misled then I would happily abide by an in vote. That's what democracy is for.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Ooh Blimey, they are f*cked. What do they need to get into power in bed with the SNP ?
I think the Tories need to be very careful. There's been a remarkable lack of enthusiasm surrounding their re-election, just people shrugging 'we couldn't let Miliband and Balls in.' Cameron is going to have a tricky time particularly over a European referendum that will split his party. He's got to deliver 5 more years of austerity with an economic outlook that seems dubious at best. The biggest current account deficit in modern times, a total lack of investment in the future going on and a risible savings ratio and add in a financial system that is probably still way over-leveraged. When the next crash happens you can rest assured we probably won't be well prepared. The Tory victory I suspect owed much to faith in their long term plan but people will agitate at some point when
They have just won a stunning victory. The world looks good. It's totally understandable. But events are lining up. Calling the next GE result now is not the wisest thing to do.
The problem is that Labour needs such a massive swing that bar a schism in the Tories or a total SNP collapse there is almost no chance of a Lab majority in 2020.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Tricky but not impossible. The LDs are finished and UKIP are bound to fade after 2017 so Labour will be in pole position to challenge strongly(*).
(*) Dependent on picking the right leader...
I don't think the LDs are finished at all actually... the Whig party has been around for a few hundred years. It needs to work out what it actually is and wants though.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
I think the Tories need to be very careful. There's been a remarkable lack of enthusiasm surrounding their re-election, just people shrugging 'we couldn't let Miliband and Balls in.' Cameron is going to have a tricky time particularly over a European referendum that will split his party. He's got to deliver 5 more years of austerity with an economic outlook that seems dubious at best. The biggest current account deficit in modern times, a total lack of investment in the future going on and a risible savings ratio and add in a financial system that is probably still way over-leveraged. When the next crash happens you can rest assured we probably won't be well prepared. The Tory victory I suspect owed much to faith in their long term plan but people will agitate at some point when
I don't think many Tory posters on here, even the most optimistic ones, genuinely think that the country has been beset by some kind of Cameronmania, less still Osbornefandom.
Cameron had a decent electoral plan, a clear message, some strokes of luck and an opponent who was ... let's say "favourable", since one should not speak ill etc.
But is that so different to other prominent, country-shaping Conservative leaders? Did Thatcher's victories contain no fortune (in the shape, let's say, of Latin American foreign policy)? Was her success achieved in the face of an incredibly strong Labour party with top-notch leadership who had correctly read the mood of the nation? Do her majorities prove she was truly beloved by the country?
Course not, but it didn't exactly hurt her, nor did it stop her achieving (for better or worse) her legacy.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
I'm agreeing with you way too much tonight. I feel ecstatic at some of the Conservative stuff but utterly dreadful at the way we booted out decent men and MPs while setting back British Liberalism for a generation.
I don't think there is a whole lot Labour can do for 2020. They have 2 chances
The first is that the Tories tear themselves apart over the EU yet again.
The second is that there will almost certainly be another recession by 2020. How the Tories handle that could give them a chance.
And we will have a few interest rate rises and Labour may surprise everyone and elect a decent leader and the Tories might pick a crap one. Will UKIP grow or fall back, will the UK's constitutional problems be solved? And so on. Basically, far too early to call anything for 2020.
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
We didn't ignore the result, we noticed that 45 is pretty close to 50.
if the vote had been 33/66 then things would have been different.
I've been through the results compiling Labour targets for 2020 on the current boundaries. I assumed that confining myself to seats where Labour requires a swing of up to 8% would yield them the 94 gains they need for a majority. In fact it's yielded them just 87 seats. Therefore the swing needed is more than 8%; it must be around 8.5% or even 9%. On UNS that means they would have to be ahead in the national vote share by around 11%.
And how do the Liberal Democrats recover from this in the south-west, and elsewhere, to recapture the seats they lost from the Tories? .
The SW problem feels particularly acute (although that may just be because that is where I reside). Other areas are essentially no go areas for a long time, so aren't as important in terms of the initial attempts at recovery, but they were strong here in the SW, a place where outside of some specific areas people just have no experience of voting Labour if they are not Tory voters. Now the LDs were forced into 4th place behind UKIP and Lab in many places - if Labour can become the natural second placers to the Tories (even if they have no hope of winning the seats), it prevents the LDs from staging a recovery to fight for their old seats.
Yes. I do wonder where the LDs should start.
Perhaps a "soft" rebuild (focussing on recruiting party members and obtaining councillors) in areas of historic liberal strength, rather than going straight for parliamentary targets?
They should focus on their councillor base to rebuild and create a few areas where people get into the habit of voting LibDem before slowly gaining seats (and also giun councillors where they have MPs to ensure their survival). They will survive.
Yes. I think that's right.
@foxinsoxuk - who knows. I think quite a few might be those that resigned their membership under Nick Clegg's leadership.
For what it's worth I don't think the EU referendum is the big deal that many think it is. Yet. In 1992 the EU was on a road to more and more integration. Whilst there may be a desire for further integration, right now the focus is on the disaster that is Greece. So long as Cameron plays fair over the question and lets everyone take the side they want to, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.
I'd have thought the bigger worry for Cameron is the economy. Surely interest rates are going to have to start going up at some point. And they are going to have to continue to get eradicate the deficit and that will only become harder if economic growth slows.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Are these on a spreadsheet? Also, on UNS which seat would be no. 326 for Labour (just so we can see their problems)?
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Are you making a spreadsheet for us? Or is there already a list of seats by majority somewhere.
I'm in the middle of preparing one. Can't find one anywhere else.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
Agreed
The purpose of the Conservative party is power. It is one of the most ruthlessly efficient machines in the entire political world. Junior coalition partners always get cream crackered. Look at SLAB, look at the Lib Dems - they danced with the Tories and it has pretty much destroyed them both.
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
We didn't ignore the result, we noticed that 45 is pretty close to 50.
if the vote had been 33/66 then things would have been different.
I assume this criticism is made because people fear that a 45/55 won't necessarily be won again if allowed to happen another time!
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Are you making a spreadsheet for us? Or is there already a list of seats by majority somewhere.
Casino - I think you owe me £20, re; there being no Con+LD coalition. Please provide me with your email address to peterfromputney@gmail.com and I'll reply with my bank details.
I've been through the results compiling Labour targets for 2020 on the current boundaries. I assumed that confining myself to seats where Labour requires a swing of up to 8% would yield them the 94 gains they need for a majority. In fact it's yielded them just 87 seats. Therefore the swing needed is more than 8%; it must be around 8.5% or even 9%. On UNS that means they would have to be ahead in the national vote share by around 11%.
Holy mother of... That's before the boundary changes right? So they'd probably need a 15% lead after them. That is never, ever going to happen.
Before the boundary changes, yes.
They've done so badly in the marginals that many of them have moved away from them to an enormous extent.
That's insane. It's hard to even imagine how the Conservatives could lose 2020. Needing to be 15% ahead even before adjusting for a re-run of the 40/40 strategy... The next Labour leader is merely cannon fodder.
Oh, for goodness sake, let not we blues start embarking on the hubris trail! It's five frigging years away.....the seeds of destruction are planted at the very pinnicle of success. Of course Labour can win in 2020 and any kind of triumphalist arrogance 'we are the masters now' on our part as a Government will inevitably result in electoral nemisis. Get real.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Tricky but not impossible. The LDs are finished and UKIP are bound to fade after 2017 so Labour will be in pole position to challenge strongly(*).
(*) Dependent on picking the right leader...
I don't think the LDs are finished at all actually... the Whig party has been around for a few hundred years. It needs to work out what it actually is and wants though.
Looking at the 8 yellow dots on the UK constituency map, I'm really struggling to see what links those constituencies (and ~30-40% of the electorates within them) together.
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
I think we're very traumatised by what happened in the 1990s. We fear it, but I don't think the same thing will happen again.
There might be 5-10 MPs who act like that, but not 30-40 MPs as some might fear. I think most Conservatives will be delighted at the prospect of locking the centre-left out of power for a generation, and will see the bigger picture.
As a Kipper I have to say I don't agree with TSE.
As long as we get a fair referendum and are not misled then I would happily abide by an in vote. That's what democracy is for.
Quite so. You're not the only Kipper I've heard say that either.
Cameron just needs to play this with a straight bat. That's all.
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
I think we're very traumatised by what happened in the 1990s. We fear it, but I don't think the same thing will happen again.
There might be 5-10 MPs who act like that, but not 30-40 MPs as some might fear. I think most Conservatives will be delighted at the prospect of locking the centre-left out of power for a generation, and will see the bigger picture.
As a Kipper I have to say I don't agree with TSE.
As long as we get a fair referendum and are not misled then I would happily abide by an in vote. That's what democracy is for.
Well said. I think the Eurosceptics get a bad press. All I want is a referendum to right the wrongs of the past. If the people choose to stay in then that's that.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
I do not share that view. English liberalism has been largely smashed by the social liberals inside th Lib De,ms. people that such as Tim Farron that labeled Thatcher as evil. The irony is that Thatcher was a classical liberal. Gone is Vince Cable with his socialist heart "beating on the left".
Now if the Lib Dems adopted the classical liberalism that some of their Orange bookers dallied with.....
At midnight Jon P and Nolan bugger off for the night and I'm now on James Naughtie and sounds like R4.... having just told listeners not to go to bed at all as it's going to be so exciting.
The next Lib Dem leader should see if there is some way of working with the Greens. They have complementary skills and needs, and they are not so far apart on the political spectrum that some form of co-operation would be impossible.
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
We didn't ignore the result, we noticed that 45 is pretty close to 50.
if the vote had been 33/66 then things would have been different.
I assume this criticism is made because people fear that a 45/55 won't necessarily be won again if allowed to happen another time!
I for one do fear that, but it isn't why people criticise the attitude - they had hoped it was a once in a generation thing, and it was immediately clear from the reactions that Yes would not let it remain so. I don't believe for one second that would be the case if it was 33/66 - that would only alter the tactics moving forward.
But they are not the only ones to recall the result oddly - I believe the Labour manifesto states that the people of Scotland voted overwhelmingly for change in the referendum. While the parties did indeed promise various things in the run up to the vote, that's still an odd way to describe a No vote when much more change was available on the ballot paper.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Tricky but not impossible. The LDs are finished and UKIP are bound to fade after 2017 so Labour will be in pole position to challenge strongly(*).
(*) Dependent on picking the right leader...
I don't think the LDs are finished at all actually... the Whig party has been around for a few hundred years. It needs to work out what it actually is and wants though.
Looking at the 8 yellow dots on the UK constituency map, I'm really struggling to see what links those constituencies (and ~30-40% of the electorates within them) together.
The next Lib Dem leader should see if there is some way of working with the Greens. They have complementary skills and needs, and they are not so far apart on the political spectrum that some form of co-operation would be impossible.
AndyJS Having just done a few calculations on the Telegraph's results paper, a swing of 4% ie seats with a Tory lead of 8%, would just put Labour in front on national voteshare but yield them about 28 seats from the Tories. a swing of 7% ie seats with a Tory lead of 14%, giving Labour about the same lead the Tories have now would yield Labour about 66 seats in which case they would be clearly in front. Of course they could win back a few from the SNP too and the LDs could win back a few from the Tories under Farron which would make their task easier
Of course the return of LD and Labour anti-Tory tactical voting would also help them
The next Lib Dem leader should see if there is some way of working with the Greens. They have complementary skills and needs, and they are not so far apart on the political spectrum that some form of co-operation would be impossible.
I am not sure that the LDs would want to align themselves with the Greens as they currently present. It would put off much of the moderate wing. They need to build a broad coalition of liberals - not get in bed with the Greens.
If only there was half a chance of even a minor Tory revival North of the Border... Alas, the SNP one party state is making me feel increasingly sidelined and in some respects fearful.
Casino - I think you owe me £20, re; there being no Con+LD coalition. Please provide me with your email address to peterfromputney@gmail.com and I'll reply with my bank details.
Many thanks.
You are quite correct. For the record, I did post on here two days asking for this from you, and got no response ;-)
No problem, I'll drop you a note in the morning. This is a bet I'm happy to lose, but for reasons I never expected!
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Are you making a spreadsheet for us? Or is there already a list of seats by majority somewhere.
I'm in the middle of preparing one. Can't find one anywhere else.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
I do not share that view. English liberalism has been largely smashed by the social liberals inside th Lib De,ms. people that such as Tim Farron that labeled Thatcher as evil. The irony is that Thatcher was a classical liberal. Gone is Vince Cable with his socialist heart "beating on the left".
Now if the Lib Dems adopted the classical liberalism that some of their Orange bookers dallied with.....
It's the Steve Webbs, David Laws and Danny Alexanders I mourn the most.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
I do not share that view. English liberalism has been largely smashed by the social liberals inside th Lib De,ms. people that such as Tim Farron that labeled Thatcher as evil. The irony is that Thatcher was a classical liberal. Gone is Vince Cable with his socialist heart "beating on the left".
Now if the Lib Dems adopted the classical liberalism that some of their Orange bookers dallied with.....
...then they'd have even fewer surviving MPs, I suspect.
I certainly agree that the Liberal Unionist tradition is stronger Chez Tory than it is in the Lib Dems. A liberal-minded neo-Cobdenite would not only feel more at home within the Conservative Party, they'd have far more chance of Getting Stuff Done.
The Lib Dems are the heirs to something else, I think - perhaps the authentic spirit of Beveridge and Keynes (neither socialists, despite their legacy being claimed by Labour).
Bill Cash quoted as saying, ""nibbling" at the treaties that underpin Britain's relationship with the EU would not be enough. You've got to actually change the structure of the treaties as well, and that is something which other member states will have difficulty with".
The big problem for Labour is that the UK, and England in particular, has a right wing majority among voters.
I'm not so sure it's as simple as that.
The ex-Labour UKIP vote is hardly *right wing* - these voters swung behind the SNP, where they had that option.
I think Sean's right. Among actual voters. Blair won because a lot of those voters sat on their hands. When they choose to vote, the Tories win.
Among the population as a whole, there's a left-wing majority, but many poor people never vote. They'd rather end up using a food bank than demean themselves by doing something as uncool as drawing a small pencil cross once every 5 years.
It's odd. A year ago, the story was how the left was united while the right was divided. As of today, the progressive vote is split between Labour, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems. Whoever leads Labour next is going to have to work out how to get that vote to coalesce again.
According to AndyJS they will need a larger than 8% swing to get a majority (11% lead in national vote). That is before the boundary changes which may push it up to a 15% lead required. They'd need to get the entire PC , LD and Green vote as well as about 1 in 7 of all current Conservative voters...
In my nightmare situation, the Tory party fatally splits on Europe after Dave makes it a hat-trick of referendum victories.
Getting 1 in 7 current Tory voters might not be that difficult.
The EU referendum is *the* huge landmine for the Tories in this parliament.
That said, the whole of Europe seems genuinely stunned by the result in the UK and quite panicky about it, seemingly fearing for the whole future of the EU. And Cameron is sending over the best team for renegotiation he's got.
Perhaps we might be surprised.
This is going to be clumsily phrased, and it's not meant to wind up the Eurosceptics.
But having seen the Nats blithely ignore the results of a once in a lifetime referendum, I can see a wing of the Tory party, split off, saying David Cameron lied/misled us to keep us in the EU.
We'd be in a phase of a EU neverendum, and when the Tory Party focusses upon the EU, we inevitably get thrashed like a client of a Dominatrix at a forthcoming General Election.
I think we're very traumatised by what happened in the 1990s. We fear it, but I don't think the same thing will happen again.
There might be 5-10 MPs who act like that, but not 30-40 MPs as some might fear. I think most Conservatives will be delighted at the prospect of locking the centre-left out of power for a generation, and will see the bigger picture.
As a Kipper I have to say I don't agree with TSE.
As long as we get a fair referendum and are not misled then I would happily abide by an in vote. That's what democracy is for.
Quite so. You're not the only Kipper I've heard say that either.
Cameron just needs to play this with a straight bat. That's all.
If there is one thing that Cameron does well, it is playing a straight bat.
To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.
Are you making a spreadsheet for us? Or is there already a list of seats by majority somewhere.
I'm in the middle of preparing one. Can't find one anywhere else.
did you see my link to the election result CVS file?
Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum
SeanF No, it has a centrist majority, if England had a rightwing majority it would never have elected Blair over Hague and Howard let alone Attlee twice and Wilson twice
If EV4EL goes through, it gives the Conservatives a 135 seat majority in England going into the 2020 general election. That truly is Thatcher landslide territory, and a working majority in England will be crucial to any future UK government.
The Conservative vote-share and result under FPTP should be no real crumb of comfort: over 55% of the English voted for clear centre-right parties favouring tax-cuts, protection of defence, immigration control, EV4EL and Euroscepticism. The equivalent figures for the Left (Labour + Green) are just a shade over 35%. PR is no counter-argument: we've have had a Con-UKIP coalition with an ever bigger majority.
All of that's before we consider the remarkable ineptitude and lack of self-awareness within the Labour party. Further blunders could easily see it lose a swathe of seats in the North East to UKIP, just as happened in Scotland this time.
Only a total and fundamental rethink will now do. Or the Left will be out of power for a very long time indeed.
It's hard for me to say this - as a seasoned Cameron critic - but he might actually go down as one of the most significant and successful Conservative leaders in history.
I mean in the Thatcher/Churchill class. Seriously. He could end up changing the whole political centre-of-gravity in the UK. And possibly the EU too.
I gravely underestimated him, despite enthusiastically voting for him in the 2005 leadership election. I feel embarrassed I lost faith in the last nine months.
I am rejoining the Conservative party as a member tomorrow.
sober up and give it a week :-)
Ha. Of course, I will be very disappointed on some things, I'm sure. But it's no use carping on the sidelines. I also think UKIP have been set-back by this result.
Defence is a big issue for me. I now think I can achieve more on influencing that from within the inside of the party.
parties should always be broad churches, you never get everything but if you get some so be it.
I wish I could convince good people like you and Sean Fear to join me. I don't want to be lonely!
You won't be, I'm sure.
I don't want to rain on your parade but the article by Matthew Parris in this Saturday's Times is worth a read. Essentially he says that the Tories too need to work harder at reaching out to the Northern voters who, while conservative with a small "c" simply don't vote Conservative. He's a bit gloomier on the long-term prospects of the party if it sits on its laurels as a result of this victory.
The Labour winning margin from UKIP was, in 6 seats, less than the Tory vote. (Dagenham and Rainham; Hartlepool; Heywood and Middleton; Rother Valley; Stoke-on-Trent Central - MP a certain Tristram "Hand-shandy" Hunt; and West Bromwich West
Dan Jervis has ruled himself out. Wise Furthermore I did not realise and maybe others promoting him had forgotten that his wife died of cancer in 2011 and that was about the time he entered parliament. He has a young family and he is a very inexperienced politician.
If EV4EL goes through, it gives the Conservatives a 135 seat majority in England going into the 2020 general election. That truly is Thatcher landslide territory, and a working majority in England will be crucial to any future UK government.
The Conservative vote-share and result under FPTP should be no real crumb of comfort: over 55% of the English voted for clear centre-right parties favouring tax-cuts, protection of defence, immigration control, EV4EL and Euroscepticism. The equivalent figures for the Left (Labour + Green) are just a shade over 35%. PR is no counter-argument: we've have had a Con-UKIP coalition with an ever bigger majority.
Only a total and fundamental rethink will now do. Or the Left will be out of power for a very long time indeed.
It's hard for me to say this - as a seasoned Cameron critic - but he might actually go down as one of the most significant and successful Conservative leaders in history.
I mean in the Thatcher/Churchill class. Seriously. He could end up changing the whole political centre-of-gravity in the UK. And possibly the EU too.
I gravely underestimated him, despite enthusiastically voting for him in the 2005 leadership election. I feel embarrassed I lost faith in the last nine months.
I am rejoining the Conservative party as a member tomorrow.
sober up and give it a week :-)
Ha. Of course, I will be very disappointed on some things, I'm sure. But it's no use carping on the sidelines. I also think UKIP have been set-back by this result.
Defence is a big issue for me. I now think I can achieve more on influencing that from within the inside of the party.
parties should always be broad churches, you never get everything but if you get some so be it.
I wish I could convince good people like you and Sean Fear to join me. I don't want to be lonely!
You won't be, I'm sure.
I don't want to rain on your parade but the article by Matthew Parris in this Saturday's Times is worth a read. Essentially he says that the Tories too need to work harder at reaching out to the Northern voters who, while conservative with a small "c" simply don't vote Conservative. He's a bit gloomier on the long-term prospects of the party if it sits on its laurels as a result of this victory.
I read it, and agree with Matthew. Even though, ironically enough, he's not the best placed individually to talk about reaching out.
But he's called this one right. Complacency would be very dangerous.
Also, in the next PMQs, it is going to be incredibly poignant when Nick Clegg asks Dave a question.
I feel exactly the same way. One of my closest friends is a Lib Dem and was almost in tears on Friday morning. When I saw what happened to them, I felt emotional myself - embarrassed, guilty and sad.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
I do not share that view. English liberalism has been largely smashed by the social liberals inside th Lib De,ms. people that such as Tim Farron that labeled Thatcher as evil. The irony is that Thatcher was a classical liberal. Gone is Vince Cable with his socialist heart "beating on the left".
Now if the Lib Dems adopted the classical liberalism that some of their Orange bookers dallied with.....
...then they'd have even fewer surviving MPs, I suspect.
I certainly agree that the Liberal Unionist tradition is stronger Chez Tory than it is in the Lib Dems. A liberal-minded neo-Cobdenite would not only feel more at home within the Conservative Party, they'd have far more chance of Getting Stuff Done.
The Lib Dems are the heirs to something else, I think - perhaps the authentic spirit of Beveridge and Keynes (neither socialists, despite their legacy being claimed by Labour).
Twice in 1886 and 1931, a large swathe of the Liberal Party split off and was absorbed by the Tories while sharing power with them. The second time, it was actually most of the Liberal Party. By the 50s, the remnant was a funny mix of people like Beveridge and Keynes who had kept going in the Labour direction without accepting socialism with those who agreed with the Tories but who couldn't possibly keep their seats as such.
AndyJS Of course Blair was ahead by 14% in the 1997 election, who knows what will happen, if the Tories tear themselves apart over the EU and Cameron leads the In side to a narrow victory Tory eurosceptics could flock to UKIP, making it easier for Labour without them having to do a thing
Comments
Anyway Liz Truss has just walked in to R5 studio... 'her smile so big she's warmed up the room' says Jon P
1) Lab and LD leadership election, possibly a UKIP one as well
2) US Primary season
3) Holyrood election
4) In/Out referendum
5) Tory leadership election
they don't see the light at the end of the tunnel. Cameron may be able to manage it and Labour's problems may be worse, leaving aside the Lib Dem stupor, but it will be another hard slog.
That said, I was impressed by the tone of Bill Cash and Owen Paterson today, I also think they don't want a replay of the Major years, and will give Dave the benefit of the doubt up and until Dave gets his deal from the EU.
And even if things start going Labour's way, it'll be "Yeah, but the polls are wrong again".
Like Bane said in The Dark Knight Rises, you need them to have a little hope. Right now my best hope is that Scotland annexes down to County Durham
Once again, the parliamentary arithmetic in this election has been absolutely crucial: those six extra seats Cameron took from the Liberal Democrats to get him to 331 (rather than 325) might be responsible for changing the future direction of the whole of this country.
Perhaps a Grexit could be Cameron's Black Wednesday.
(*) Dependent on picking the right leader...
The first is that the Tories tear themselves apart over the EU yet again.
The second is that there will almost certainly be another recession by 2020. How the Tories handle that could give them a chance.
He starts laughing... 'youve got to clutch to some straws Jon as it's early in the evening and nothing much to talk about'
The ex-Labour UKIP vote is hardly *right wing* - these voters swung behind the SNP, where they had that option.
I'd have far rather smashed Labour than English liberalism.
http://order-order.com/2015/05/10/danbo-says-no-jarvis-not-running-for-labour-leader/#_@/l0fs3_MBXYDVOQ
Giving EMWC full magazine on automatic fire.
"We must never go into an election again giving communities like Carlisle and Pudsey the impression that the Tories were more serious than us about spreading wealth across the country.
We should equally ask how we allowed ourselves to be perceived as not on the side of wealth creators. Never again can we allow ourselves to be painted as having a problem with people eager to work hard, get on and succeed. They should know that Labour will always be their champion.”
As long as we get a fair referendum and are not misled then I would happily abide by an in vote. That's what democracy is for.
Cameron had a decent electoral plan, a clear message, some strokes of luck and an opponent who was ... let's say "favourable", since one should not speak ill etc.
But is that so different to other prominent, country-shaping Conservative leaders? Did Thatcher's victories contain no fortune (in the shape, let's say, of Latin American foreign policy)? Was her success achieved in the face of an incredibly strong Labour party with top-notch leadership who had correctly read the mood of the nation? Do her majorities prove she was truly beloved by the country?
Course not, but it didn't exactly hurt her, nor did it stop her achieving (for better or worse) her legacy.
....he won more seats for Labour than Foot did in 1983 and Kinnock in 1987!
if the vote had been 33/66 then things would have been different.
@foxinsoxuk - who knows. I think quite a few might be those that resigned their membership under Nick Clegg's leadership.
I'd have thought the bigger worry for Cameron is the economy. Surely interest rates are going to have to start going up at some point. And they are going to have to continue to get eradicate the deficit and that will only become harder if economic growth slows.
The Labour Parties in Derby and Swansea must be hanging their heads in shame.
Many thanks.
Fortunately, Cameron and Osborne realize that.
What is the point of the Lib Dems?
Cameron just needs to play this with a straight bat. That's all.
Now if the Lib Dems adopted the classical liberalism that some of their Orange bookers dallied with.....
At midnight Jon P and Nolan bugger off for the night and I'm now on James Naughtie and sounds like R4.... having just told listeners not to go to bed at all as it's going to be so exciting.
Boo....
But they are not the only ones to recall the result oddly - I believe the Labour manifesto states that the people of Scotland voted overwhelmingly for change in the referendum. While the parties did indeed promise various things in the run up to the vote, that's still an odd way to describe a No vote when much more change was available on the ballot paper.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEq30JFW0AARcEr.jpg:large
They are a red dot in a blue sea
Of course the return of LD and Labour anti-Tory tactical voting would also help them
Alas, the SNP one party state is making me feel increasingly sidelined and in some respects fearful.
No problem, I'll drop you a note in the morning. This is a bet I'm happy to lose, but for reasons I never expected!
The LibDems polled 2.145 million votes.
If they had polled 0.025 million votes less in the right constituencies, they would have got 0 seats.
Close Britain, but no cigar!
Whisper it but will Geoffrey Robinson fall on his sword offering his dear friend @edballsmp a route back to the Commons? If not now, when?
Right, really must get some sleep. Goodnight.
I certainly agree that the Liberal Unionist tradition is stronger Chez Tory than it is in the Lib Dems. A liberal-minded neo-Cobdenite would not only feel more at home within the Conservative Party, they'd have far more chance of Getting Stuff Done.
The Lib Dems are the heirs to something else, I think - perhaps the authentic spirit of Beveridge and Keynes (neither socialists, despite their legacy being claimed by Labour).
http://news.sky.com/story/1481343/cameron-needs-time-and-space-on-europe
Among the population as a whole, there's a left-wing majority, but many poor people never vote. They'd rather end up using a food bank than demean themselves by doing something as uncool as drawing a small pencil cross once every 5 years.
Think on that, Labour. And be afraid.
I don't want to rain on your parade but the article by Matthew Parris in this Saturday's Times is worth a read. Essentially he says that the Tories too need to work harder at reaching out to the Northern voters who, while conservative with a small "c" simply don't vote Conservative. He's a bit gloomier on the long-term prospects of the party if it sits on its laurels as a result of this victory.
Let James Purnell have it, I've just stuck a fiver on at 100/1
http://bit.ly/1F7KhEF
I could run a Python script and scrape the BBC election results if anyone wants that compiled.
Get on....
Wise
Furthermore I did not realise and maybe others promoting him had forgotten that his wife died of cancer in 2011 and that was about the time he entered parliament. He has a young family and he is a very inexperienced politician.
tim....?
But he's called this one right. Complacency would be very dangerous.
And Greens must have made a difference in a fair few too.