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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB GE15 competition: Results from the April round

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Do people want an election result spreadsheet?

    I could run a Python script and scrape the BBC election results if anyone wants that compiled.

    I've already done that and posted a link!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    MP_SE said:

    Bill Cash quoted as saying, ""nibbling" at the treaties that underpin Britain's relationship with the EU would not be enough. You've got to actually change the structure of the treaties as well, and that is something which other member states will have difficulty with".

    http://news.sky.com/story/1481343/cameron-needs-time-and-space-on-europe

    Sorry but the sort of stuff that Cash spouts is garbage.

    If "nibbling at the treaties is not enough" then vote out, simple as that.

    It is an in/out referendum after all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    I see Truro went from a Conservative majority of 435 to 14,000.

    I think we can strike that one from the marginals list next time.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:

    If EV4EL goes through, it gives the Conservatives a 135 seat majority in England going into the 2020 general election. That truly is Thatcher landslide territory, and a working majority in England will be crucial to any future UK government.

    The Conservative vote-share and result under FPTP should be no real crumb of comfort: over 55% of the English voted for clear centre-right parties favouring tax-cuts, protection of defence, immigration control, EV4EL and Euroscepticism. The equivalent figures for the Left (Labour + Green) are just a shade over 35%. PR is no counter-argument: we've have had a Con-UKIP coalition with an ever bigger majority.

    All of that's before we consider the remarkable ineptitude and lack of self-awareness within the Labour party. Further blunders could easily see it lose a swathe of seats in the North East to UKIP, just as happened in Scotland this time.

    Only a total and fundamental rethink will now do. Or the Left will be out of power for a very long time indeed.

    Snip

    sober up and give it a week :-)
    Ha. Of course, I will be very disappointed on some things, I'm sure. But it's no use carping on the sidelines. I also think UKIP have been set-back by this result.

    Defence is a big issue for me. I now think I can achieve more on influencing that from within the inside of the party.
    parties should always be broad churches, you never get everything but if you get some so be it.
    I wish I could convince good people like you and Sean Fear to join me. I don't want to be lonely!
    You won't be, I'm sure.

    I don't want to rain on your parade but the article by Matthew Parris in this Saturday's Times is worth a read. Essentially he says that the Tories too need to work harder at reaching out to the Northern voters who, while conservative with a small "c" simply don't vote Conservative. He's a bit gloomier on the long-term prospects of the party if it sits on its laurels as a result of this victory.
    While they have won a big victory, and made it very hard for Labour to get a majority in 2020, the Conservatives need to continue to expand their voterbase as well as their ground game in safe Tory seats, CCHQ tomorrow needs to get back to work and to start preparing for the next election.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    antifrank said:

    Do people want an election result spreadsheet?

    I could run a Python script and scrape the BBC election results if anyone wants that compiled.

    I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds useful!
    I did it last time round; I would just need to change a few lines of the script I think (assuming this year's results pages are structured in a similar way to last time's!)

    But I won't bother if AndyJS or someone else has already extracted the data.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Moses_ said:

    I wonder if IOS hasn't been on because he is still canvassing.. perhaps he is working so hard , he hasn't realised the election has come and gone.

    In a similar vein I wonder if Tim is out of resuss yet?
    Twitter is silent ish.. I think he's in shock. He might have changed his twitter feed I mean its GOosborne genius.. which of course he is...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2015
    *** HORN TOOTING***
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/6mb2iroir0odk1h/2015results.csv?dl=0
    Is a csv file of the UK election results, scraped from the
    BBC website.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Alistair said:

    Do people want an election result spreadsheet?

    I could run a Python script and scrape the BBC election results if anyone wants that compiled.

    I've already done that and posted a link!
    Ah brilliant. Saves me the bother, thanks!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    I did point out Labour's southern problem

    DanJarvis is scathing on Lab campaign: "More ppl have walked on the moon than the number of Labour MPs elected across the SW, SE and East."
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    The Labour winning margin from the Tories was, in 56 seats, less than the UKIP vote.

    Think on that, Labour. And be afraid.

    I don't think that is fair. There are blue kippers too.

    And Greens must have made a difference in a fair few too.
    I'm pretty sure that Wirral West and Chester would have stayed Blue if there was a Green candidate.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    GIN1138 said:

    Freggles said:

    The next five years on here are going to be dismal.

    Why?

    I think the Tories need to be very careful. There's been a remarkable lack of enthusiasm surrounding their re-election, just people shrugging 'we couldn't let Miliband and Balls in.' Cameron is going to have a tricky time particularly over a European referendum that will split his party. He's got to deliver 5 more years of austerity with an economic outlook that seems dubious at best. The biggest current account deficit in modern times, a total lack of investment in the future going on and a risible savings ratio and add in a financial system that is probably still way over-leveraged. When the next crash happens you can rest assured we probably won't be well prepared. The Tory victory I suspect owed much to faith in their long term plan but people will agitate at some point when

    Beware hubris. I'm not an ideological Tory. I think the most memorable post during election night was from Fenster urging Cameron to make sure that the sick and disabled are well looked after, not made victims of the welfare reforms.

    As Mr Booth says, if the Tories are seen as hard hearted, and the cuts really bite, and the economy enters an inevitable downturn...or if interest rates have to rise...or...or.

    Plenty of ways for the Tories to drop the ball.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Donate button
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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Tony Blair's old seat of Sedgfield just missed out on being in the "UKIP vote is less than the Labour margin from Cons" list. Labour majority, 6,843. UKIP vote 6,426...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Patel in the Cabinet All she lacked to be Leader material was Cabinet experience.

    Get on....

    Curiously Priti Patel was at school with Liz Kendall.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2015

    Moses_ said:

    I wonder if IOS hasn't been on because he is still canvassing.. perhaps he is working so hard , he hasn't realised the election has come and gone.

    In a similar vein I wonder if Tim is out of resuss yet?
    Twitter is silent ish.. I think he's in shock. He might have changed his twitter feed I mean its GOosborne genius.. which of course he is...
    Some of those tweets from the last few days of the campaign were as good as IOS's recent posts. Classic stuff.

    Let noone say that hindsight lacks a sense of humour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Donate button
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    I will be making a donation, Mike. Thank you.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bad news for Labour.

    I've been through the results compiling Labour targets for 2020 on the current boundaries. I assumed that confining myself to seats where Labour requires a swing of up to 8% would yield them the 94 gains they need for a majority. In fact it's yielded them just 87 seats. Therefore the swing needed is more than 8%; it must be around 8.5% or even 9%. On UNS that means they would have to be ahead in the national vote share by around 11%.

    And how do the Liberal Democrats recover from this in the south-west, and elsewhere, to recapture the seats they lost from the Tories?
    .
    The SW problem feels particularly acute (although that may just be because that is where I reside). Other areas are essentially no go areas for a long time, so aren't as important in terms of the initial attempts at recovery, but they were strong here in the SW, a place where outside of some specific areas people just have no experience of voting Labour if they are not Tory voters. Now the LDs were forced into 4th place behind UKIP and Lab in many places - if Labour can become the natural second placers to the Tories (even if they have no hope of winning the seats), it prevents the LDs from staging a recovery to fight for their old seats.
    Yes. I do wonder where the LDs should start.

    Perhaps a "soft" rebuild (focussing on recruiting party members and obtaining councillors) in areas of historic liberal strength, rather than going straight for parliamentary targets?
    Apparently 6000 new members have joined the LDs since Thursday. Does it require a defeat to get people to join a party nowadays?
    Put in perspective this would be equivalent to 600 people joining the SNP between the First Indyref and the following Sunday. IIRC it was nearly 20,000 actually joined the SNP.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Do people want an election result spreadsheet?

    I could run a Python script and scrape the BBC election results if anyone wants that compiled.

    I've already done that and posted a link!
    Ah brilliant. Saves me the bother, thanks!
    its just parties and votes for each constituency, I didn't get turnout percentage or anything like that as I only had 15 mins to pit the script together, so if you have something fancier then I'm sure people would like that
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    The Labour winning margin from the Tories was, in 56 seats, less than the UKIP vote.

    Think on that, Labour. And be afraid.

    I don't think that is fair. There are blue kippers too.

    And Greens must have made a difference in a fair few too.
    Green surge costing Labour the seat, as tipped up by Shadsy.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Kemptown_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929

    Patel in the Cabinet All she lacked to be Leader material was Cabinet experience.

    Get on....

    I remember HenryG talking her up as one he feared. Then I saw her on Question Time with Ian Hislop trying to defend capital punishment. She got herself in a compete mess.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Patel to CLG seems to be a given (Uncle Eric will not be greatly missed), I imagine Theresa Villiers will also be out and Patrick McLoughlin as well. Anna to Transport or Northern Ireland?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    Moses_ said:

    I wonder if IOS hasn't been on because he is still canvassing.. perhaps he is working so hard , he hasn't realised the election has come and gone.

    In a similar vein I wonder if Tim is out of resuss yet?
    Twitter is silent ish.. I think he's in shock. He might have changed his twitter feed I mean its GOosborne genius.. which of course he is...
    Ouch!

    There were about 186 things on election night that would have made tim's skin crawl.

    Heh.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    edited May 2015
    I just snorted my bedtime horlicks out of my nose:

    https://twitter.com/IDS_MP/status/597511459787165700/photo/1
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I did point out Labour's southern problem

    DanJarvis is scathing on Lab campaign: "More ppl have walked on the moon than the number of Labour MPs elected across the SW, SE and East."

    Labour need to choose a leader who can speak to people in the areas that did not vote Labour this time. The danger is that they will choose another leader who fits in with their current self-image. That is an election-losing strategy.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2015

    Patel in the Cabinet All she lacked to be Leader material was Cabinet experience.

    Get on....

    Curiously Priti Patel was at school with Liz Kendall.
    In her retirement my mother got increasingly wide-reaching with claims of famous people (or just people she saw on TV) who she claimed to have known, or taught.

    It took a great deal of persuasion on my part that, since she never worked at a school in the same county as Priti Patel, it was quiet implausible she was that "quiet girl" in needlework class who "worked very hard"...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    Patel in the Cabinet All she lacked to be Leader material was Cabinet experience.

    Get on....

    I remember HenryG talking her up as one he feared. Then I saw her on Question Time with Ian Hislop trying to defend capital punishment. She got herself in a compete mess.
    Don't know when that was, but she has much improved since becoming a Minister and also appears noticeably less strident a right-winger.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    I see Truro went from a Conservative majority of 435 to 14,000.

    I think we can strike that one from the marginals list next time.

    I've been following the marginals discussion tonight with some interest. I think we have to seriously question our concept of marginals after Thursday. We cannot view these seats through the prism of the past.
    Scotland and the massacre of the LD's shows that politics is much more fluid and less tribal than we could have ever imagined. I would guess this will become more pronounced in the future as party allegiances dwindle even further.
    If Labour lost Glasgow in 2015, it is not beyond imagination to think that any seat could be vulnerable at the next election. Events dear boy, events.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    MM If Cameron leads the In vote in 2017 alongside Labour and the LDs and the UK narrowly votes In it will be the Tories who start to worry about UKIP
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Jarvis out. Maybe it was a genuine family thing but I can't help smell a rat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    tyson said:

    I see Truro went from a Conservative majority of 435 to 14,000.

    I think we can strike that one from the marginals list next time.

    I've been following the marginals discussion tonight with some interest. I think we have to seriously question our concept of marginals after Thursday. We cannot view these seats through the prism of the past.
    Scotland and the massacre of the LD's shows that politics is much more fluid and less tribal than we could have ever imagined. I would guess this will become more pronounced in the future as party allegiances dwindle even further.
    If Labour lost Glasgow in 2015, it is not beyond imagination to think that any seat could be vulnerable at the next election. Events dear boy, events.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    Moses_ said:

    I wonder if IOS hasn't been on because he is still canvassing.. perhaps he is working so hard , he hasn't realised the election has come and gone.

    In a similar vein I wonder if Tim is out of resuss yet?
    Twitter is silent ish.. I think he's in shock. He might have changed his twitter feed I mean its GOosborne genius.. which of course he is...
    Ouch!

    There were about 186 things on election night that would have made tim's skin crawl.

    Heh.
    But to his credit he is paying out all his pb bets immediately.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    AndyJS said:

    To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.

    Tricky but not impossible. The LDs are finished and UKIP are bound to fade after 2017 so Labour will be in pole position to challenge strongly(*).

    (*) Dependent on picking the right leader...
    I don't think the LDs are finished at all actually... the Whig party has been around for a few hundred years. It needs to work out what it actually is and wants though.
    The Whig party is currently represented in the House of Commons by Cameron, amongst others.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    antifrank said:

    I did point out Labour's southern problem

    DanJarvis is scathing on Lab campaign: "More ppl have walked on the moon than the number of Labour MPs elected across the SW, SE and East."

    Labour need to choose a leader who can speak to people in the areas that did not vote Labour this time. The danger is that they will choose another leader who fits in with their current self-image. That is an election-losing strategy.
    Liz Kendall or Stella Creasy fit that bill
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I see Nadine Dorries got a swing from Labour.

    tim....?

    Nadine would make a great replacement for Esther McVey has employment minister,she's got a human face.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Pulpstar said:

    Well done Mortimer !

    Congrats to Mortimer!

    I came a crap 184th!!
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    The political side of Europe is what people fear most.
    What all europhiles have to realise and wake up to is that the EU is not going to go away and we will have to deal with it even if we left.
    With the best will in the world we have to realise that out of the EU means in the EEA and that means the single market and movement of labour. For all the howling , economically and trade speaking, being out of the EU will not make much difference.
    Can Tory backbenchers and activists really be so thick?

    May I add that Gove is going to bring in a Bill of Rights and the silly excesses we relate to the EU are down to the ECHR not the EU.

    The EU needs reform to its movement rules and other areas - so does the Eurozone. The opportunity is there and can be followed by a referendum. There is no need to split the party.

    And for the record - since this subject promises to be extremely tiresome - if we were to end up in the EEA (but out of Schengen) I could more than live with that. Ever closer union and the half baked eurozone are what we are not getting into.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    AndyJS said:

    To emphasise Labour's difficulties, one of the seats they need for a majority next time is Camborne & Redruth. Result there this time was Con 40.23%, Lab 24.96%.

    Tricky but not impossible. The LDs are finished and UKIP are bound to fade after 2017 so Labour will be in pole position to challenge strongly(*).

    (*) Dependent on picking the right leader...
    I don't think the LDs are finished at all actually... the Whig party has been around for a few hundred years. It needs to work out what it actually is and wants though.
    The Whig party is currently represented in the House of Commons by Cameron, amongst others.
    True !
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    If only there was half a chance of even a minor Tory revival North of the Border...
    Alas, the SNP one party state is making me feel increasingly sidelined and in some respects fearful.

    Scotland will not have competitive multi-party politics until Independence. They've had the right of centre for years, they've now got the centre left and the centre as well.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Donate button
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    Ta. Strike one for the Red Liberal.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
    Not sure that the indyref worked out that way!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    The Labour winning margin from the Tories was, in 56 seats, less than the UKIP vote.

    Think on that, Labour. And be afraid.

    It's a big stretch to simultaneously celebrate that Labour was hit way harder than the Tories by Ukip, and to say that Ukip-to-Tory switchers threaten 50 Labour seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Dair Quebec nationalists were comfortably returned to power in the 1981 Quebec general election after the 1980 referendum, in 1985 the Liberals ousted them
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Donate button
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  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JohnO said:

    Moses_ said:

    I wonder if IOS hasn't been on because he is still canvassing.. perhaps he is working so hard , he hasn't realised the election has come and gone.

    In a similar vein I wonder if Tim is out of resuss yet?
    Twitter is silent ish.. I think he's in shock. He might have changed his twitter feed I mean its GOosborne genius.. which of course he is...
    Ouch!

    There were about 186 things on election night that would have made tim's skin crawl.

    Heh.
    But to his credit he is paying out all his pb bets immediately.
    fair point..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Tyson Indeed, in 1992 Major won more votes than any PM in history (indeed more than Cameron has just won), by 1997 the Tories suffered their worst result since 1832. Politics can be volatile and FPTP brutal if the mood of the public is heading in 1 direction
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    tyson said:

    I see Truro went from a Conservative majority of 435 to 14,000.

    I think we can strike that one from the marginals list next time.

    I've been following the marginals discussion tonight with some interest. I think we have to seriously question our concept of marginals after Thursday. We cannot view these seats through the prism of the past.
    Scotland and the massacre of the LD's shows that politics is much more fluid and less tribal than we could have ever imagined. I would guess this will become more pronounced in the future as party allegiances dwindle even further.
    If Labour lost Glasgow in 2015, it is not beyond imagination to think that any seat could be vulnerable at the next election. Events dear boy, events.


    I would actually hope for that, and maybe more seats will become vulnerable on all sides, but didn't only 17% of seats change hands or something, and this at a time of an epochal shift in Scottish politics? Add those which are traditionally still marginals, and its still a lot of very very safe seats out there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    EPG said:

    The Labour winning margin from the Tories was, in 56 seats, less than the UKIP vote.

    Think on that, Labour. And be afraid.

    It's a big stretch to simultaneously celebrate that Labour was hit way harder than the Tories by Ukip, and to say that Ukip-to-Tory switchers threaten 50 Labour seats.
    The risk for Labour is how those UKIP voters go next time. Might return to whence they came. Might stay with UKIP. But might get persuaded to move over to the party that at least gave them an In/Out vote on the EU....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.

    Just remember the Tories faced a Labour party tarnished (unfairly), but tarnished all the same by the 2008 financial crisis, and led by a hapless, hopeless, geeky, dork. And, despite all that it barely squeaked a majority, less seats than Major.

    If Labour picks a half decent leader- then I expect them to quite comfortably lead the Tories in English seats in 2020. If they had picked a half decent leader they would be leading in English seats now, but they picked Ed the dud.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    HYUFD said:

    Tyson Indeed, in 1992 Major won more votes than any PM in history (indeed more than Cameron has just won), by 1997 the Tories suffered their worst result since 1832. Politics can be volatile and FPTP brutal if the mood of the public is heading in 1 direction

    He did win the most votes, but still lost seats. The public mood was already heading away from the Tories at that point.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    antifrank said:

    I did point out Labour's southern problem

    DanJarvis is scathing on Lab campaign: "More ppl have walked on the moon than the number of Labour MPs elected across the SW, SE and East."

    Labour need to choose a leader who can speak to people in the areas that did not vote Labour this time. The danger is that they will choose another leader who fits in with their current self-image. That is an election-losing strategy.
    Liz Kendall or Stella Creasy fit that bill
    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Stella Creasy published this on Saturday. A bit bland but does look a bit like she may run.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015

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  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    Dair Quebec nationalists were comfortably returned to power in the 1981 Quebec general election after the 1980 referendum, in 1985 the Liberals ousted them

    I'm well aware of the history of Quebec nationalism. So are the SNP.

    Second Indyref is coming. Nothing you can do will stop it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Well, reading this it is clear Dan Jarvis gets it absolutely:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/im-ready-to-serve-in-labours-renewal-but-not-as-leader/

    His time will surely come.

    But his not running is very good news for the Tories.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    JohnO said:

    Moses_ said:

    I wonder if IOS hasn't been on because he is still canvassing.. perhaps he is working so hard , he hasn't realised the election has come and gone.

    In a similar vein I wonder if Tim is out of resuss yet?
    Twitter is silent ish.. I think he's in shock. He might have changed his twitter feed I mean its GOosborne genius.. which of course he is...
    Ouch!

    There were about 186 things on election night that would have made tim's skin crawl.

    Heh.
    But to his credit he is paying out all his pb bets immediately.
    Then I look forward to receiving my gold sovereign....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    tyson said:

    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.

    Just remember the Tories faced a Labour party tarnished (unfairly), but tarnished all the same by the 2008 financial crisis, and led by a hapless, hopeless, geeky, dork. And, despite all that it barely squeaked a majority, less seats than Major.

    If Labour picks a half decent leader- then I expect them to quite comfortably lead the Tories in English seats in 2020. If they had picked a half decent leader they would be leading in English seats now, but they picked Ed the dud.

    Err.. you can only beat the dork put in front of you.. its Labour's fault they let a dork get elected to lead them. Don't look at the Tories.. look at Labour.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
    Not sure that the indyref worked out that way!
    Not bothered what they do, I'm pretty sure that if we voted in then we would abide by that decision.

    By the way, congratulations on staying up. Pearson should get manager of the year, not for keeping you up but for his eccentric interviews and touch line wrestling!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Talk of all these new tory women in the cabinet,wonder if Justine Greening has kept her job in the cabinet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    The LD vote didn't go up in ANY seat... wow
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    Donate button
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    I have donated 20 per cent of (small!) winnings. Thanks for organising this wise horde who helped make it possible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    tyson said:

    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.

    It's been a few days since an unexpected victory - my observation is self congratulatory bonhomie and wild predictions of never ending success would be quite normal as an initial reaction, and not likely to persist for very long after the election once the challenges ahead start to be faced.

    I would say that had Labour won (in coalition or arrangement), there'd be plenty of self congratulatory Labour commentary about how the Tories would never win a majority ever again, except we already saw plenty of that in the past 5 years after the failure to manage it in 2010.

    The Tory optimism cycle will end in good time - only if it appears the Tory leadership are buying into it should the party be really worried.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    tyson said:

    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.

    Just remember the Tories faced a Labour party tarnished (unfairly), but tarnished all the same by the 2008 financial crisis, and led by a hapless, hopeless, geeky, dork. And, despite all that it barely squeaked a majority, less seats than Major.

    If Labour picks a half decent leader- then I expect them to quite comfortably lead the Tories in English seats in 2020. If they had picked a half decent leader they would be leading in English seats now, but they picked Ed the dud.

    You don't understand the massive challenge facing Labour though. They will need somewhere near a 15% swing for a majority after the boundary changes. They also have few-to-no decent potential leaders. Although lots can change in the next 5 years, let us PB Tories enjoy our time in the sun, it's not like we have had many of these recently.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Jarvis out. Maybe it was a genuine family thing but I can't help smell a rat.

    His first wife died of cancer only a few years ago, his eldest children lost their mother, if he were leader they would effectively lose their Dad too. Sounds very reasonable to me and does him great credit.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    tyson said:

    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.


    Are we reading the same site?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    tyson said:

    I see Truro went from a Conservative majority of 435 to 14,000.

    I think we can strike that one from the marginals list next time.

    I've been following the marginals discussion tonight with some interest. I think we have to seriously question our concept of marginals after Thursday. We cannot view these seats through the prism of the past.
    Scotland and the massacre of the LD's shows that politics is much more fluid and less tribal than we could have ever imagined. I would guess this will become more pronounced in the future as party allegiances dwindle even further.
    If Labour lost Glasgow in 2015, it is not beyond imagination to think that any seat could be vulnerable at the next election. Events dear boy, events.


    Re Glasgow: The SNP now lead Labour by atleast 20% in each of the 7 seats in the city after getting an average swing of 31.5%!!
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dair Quebec nationalists were comfortably returned to power in the 1981 Quebec general election after the 1980 referendum, in 1985 the Liberals ousted them

    Nothing you can do will stop it.
    Reasons to be fearful #69
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2015

    Well, reading this it is clear Dan Jarvis gets it absolutely:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/im-ready-to-serve-in-labours-renewal-but-not-as-leader/

    His time will surely come.

    But his not running is very good news for the Tories.

    It's impressive but something that irks me: "Our pledge to re-introduce the cap on class sizes for 5, 6 and 7-year-olds for instance was and is a good policy. But it was the same policy that first appeared on a Labour pledge card 18 years ago."

    Everyone who wants to make a Big Deal about education, makes noises about reducing class sizes. But the best available research evidence suggests this is not only ineffective, but a total waste of money - we'd do better to have larger classes, but spend the money on top-notch teachers. On the other hand it's one of those things that parents love the idea of, so saying anything otherwise would be a tough-sell. And anyone who's ever worked as a teacher will say that it's counter-intuitive, and that it's a pain to manage a large class where kids get less individual attention.

    Still, the research speaks. But nobody is going to listen to it because we've developed a set of cultural expectations about education that make it implausible to parents, teachers and voters. Other countries which don't have the same expectations seem able to function perfectly well with larger class sizes...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    Well, reading this it is clear Dan Jarvis gets it absolutely:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/im-ready-to-serve-in-labours-renewal-but-not-as-leader/

    His time will surely come.

    But his not running is very good news for the Tories.

    Disappointing, Perhaps he figures this is a two term project. Or, as I said earlier, he's been 'bought' off somehow.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    @Tyson - Just remember the Tories faced a Labour party tarnished (unfairly), but tarnished all the same by the 2008 financial crisis, and led by a hapless, hopeless, geeky, dork. And, despite all that it barely squeaked a majority, less seats than Major.

    Balls... It wasn't the crisis it's the spending of the cash in the good years. The country was bust long before 2008 despite constant warnings Brown and labour hosed it....... Just like they always do.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    antifrank said:

    I did point out Labour's southern problem

    DanJarvis is scathing on Lab campaign: "More ppl have walked on the moon than the number of Labour MPs elected across the SW, SE and East."

    Labour need to choose a leader who can speak to people in the areas that did not vote Labour this time. The danger is that they will choose another leader who fits in with their current self-image. That is an election-losing strategy.

    Yes, indeed. Labour loves its comfort blankets. It's been a consistent failing for a decade now. But it leads to people like Ed Miliband running the show.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    RobD said:

    The LD vote didn't go up in ANY seat... wow

    Went down least in Farron's seat perhaps ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
    Not sure that the indyref worked out that way!
    Not bothered what they do, I'm pretty sure that if we voted in then we would abide by that decision.

    By the way, congratulations on staying up. Pearson should get manager of the year, not for keeping you up but for his eccentric interviews and touch line wrestling!
    Not quite certain yet mathmatically. The improvement is margins, we were losing by the odd goal, but now winning by the odd one. 7/11 of the players yesterday played for us in the Championship last year. Of the other 4 only Ulloa cost anything (£10 million), Cambiasso and Albrighton were free transfers and Huth is on loan.

    Hardly "Moneybags" football.

    I never lost faith with Nigel Pearson. He is no media tart, but rules the roost.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon I have never voted Labour in my life but Tyson has a point, we were told before this election how the boundaries and UNS made it almost impossible for the Tories to win a majority but they did, if the public's mood takes it it will put Labour back in and the EU referendum poses a huge danger to the Tories, it could make Major's Maastricht divisions look like a teatime squabble. UKIP could well do to the Tories what the SNP have done to Scottish Labour if Cameron leads the In campaign to a narrow victory alongside Labour and the Liberals, it would be Cameron and Osborne who would then be 'traitors' not Miliband and Murphy

    In the 1988 Canadian election the Tories won 169/295 seats and 43% of the vote, in the 1993 election they won 2 seats and 16%, the UKIP like Reform party 52 seats and 18%
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.

    Just remember the Tories faced a Labour party tarnished (unfairly), but tarnished all the same by the 2008 financial crisis, and led by a hapless, hopeless, geeky, dork. And, despite all that it barely squeaked a majority, less seats than Major.

    If Labour picks a half decent leader- then I expect them to quite comfortably lead the Tories in English seats in 2020. If they had picked a half decent leader they would be leading in English seats now, but they picked Ed the dud.

    Err.. you can only beat the dork put in front of you.. its Labour's fault they let a dork get elected to lead them. Don't look at the Tories.. look at Labour.
    I do blame Labour absolutely for losing 2015. Ed was utterly useless. He was excruciating, to the point of unwatchable. I don't think anyone realised quite how bad he was until he was elected leader.

  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
    Not sure that the indyref worked out that way!
    Are you sure you are reading the indyref aftermath right?
    For a start the SNP are already in government in Edinburgh.
    Are you really suggesting that say a 60-40 IN vote would trigger a mass defection from 3 political parties and a UKIP surge in the 2020 election?
    Despite the 'I' in UKIP the UK is already independent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Of the 40 seats Labour lost to the SNP, 24 of them would require a pro-Labour swing of more than 10% to win back. 10 would require between 8 and 10%, just 6 below 8%.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    The Labour winning margin from UKIP was, in 6 seats, less than the Tory vote. (Dagenham and Rainham; Hartlepool; Heywood and Middleton; Rother Valley; Stoke-on-Trent Central - MP a certain Tristram "Hand-shandy" Hunt; and West Bromwich West

    I don't think Hunt will stand in 2020.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
    Not sure that the indyref worked out that way!
    Are you sure you are reading the indyref aftermath right?
    For a start the SNP are already in government in Edinburgh.
    Are you really suggesting that say a 60-40 IN vote would trigger a mass defection from 3 political parties and a UKIP surge in the 2020 election?
    Despite the 'I' in UKIP the UK is already independent.
    No, all I am saying is that referendums are rarely a way of conclusively resolving issues.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    RobD said:

    The LD vote didn't go up in ANY seat... wow

    True in terms of percentage but not if looking at the number of votes.
    They got more votes in Argyll&Bute, Gordon, Dunbartonshire E. and Edinburgh W. although that probably is more down to some Labour and Tories voters trying to stop the SNP.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167

    If only there was half a chance of even a minor Tory revival North of the Border...
    Alas, the SNP one party state is making me feel increasingly sidelined and in some respects fearful.

    You'd probably lower your fearfulness quotient if you avoided inaccurate hyperbole. A democratic polity where the opposition parties aren't very good at attracting support isn't a one party state.

    'One-party state
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    A one-party state is a country that uses a one-party political system, meaning only one political party exists and the forming of other political parties is forbidden.'
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.

    Just remember the Tories faced a Labour party tarnished (unfairly), but tarnished all the same by the 2008 financial crisis, and led by a hapless, hopeless, geeky, dork. And, despite all that it barely squeaked a majority, less seats than Major.

    If Labour picks a half decent leader- then I expect them to quite comfortably lead the Tories in English seats in 2020. If they had picked a half decent leader they would be leading in English seats now, but they picked Ed the dud.

    Err.. you can only beat the dork put in front of you.. its Labour's fault they let a dork get elected to lead them. Don't look at the Tories.. look at Labour.
    I do blame Labour absolutely for losing 2015. Ed was utterly useless. He was excruciating, to the point of unwatchable. I don't think anyone realised quite how bad he was until he was elected leader.

    Well I did, you only had to listen to him and look at his mannerisms to see what was going to happen. The Burger incident was just inevitable, as was nearly falling off stage. You cannot blame his ambition, but the blame is entirely down his own party AND union money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Well, reading this it is clear Dan Jarvis gets it absolutely:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/im-ready-to-serve-in-labours-renewal-but-not-as-leader/

    His time will surely come.

    But his not running is very good news for the Tories.

    It's impressive but something that irks me: "Our pledge to re-introduce the cap on class sizes for 5, 6 and 7-year-olds for instance was and is a good policy. But it was the same policy that first appeared on a Labour pledge card 18 years ago."

    Everyone who wants to make a Big Deal about education, makes noises about reducing class sizes. But the best available research evidence suggests this is not only ineffective, but a total waste of money - we'd do better to have larger classes, but spend the money on top-notch teachers. On the other hand it's one of those things that parents love the idea of, so saying anything otherwise would be a tough-sell.
    I'm with you on that one. The infant class size limit has also led to some perverse results re allocation of school places, as with not enough classes in area, and with the rules for when you can breach the limit so strict even on appeal, I've lost count of the number of times I've seen parents very close to their preferred schools denied places and sent a long way afield.

    Sure, people prefer smaller classes (generally, anyway), and having a target size is not a bad idea, but if a school can prove they can take on more and not have standards suffer (the lack of such a restrictive limit for older years shows how they might be able to manage), for instance with more TAs, they should be able to take on more if they want. I've seen appeals at higher years go through when Headteachers admit (sometimes quite willingly) 'We could handle another x, sure', but the strength of the infant class size limit doesn't allow that.

    But any politician suggesting relaxing the rules will be easy fodder for their opposition I suspect.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
    Not sure that the indyref worked out that way!
    Not bothered what they do, I'm pretty sure that if we voted in then we would abide by that decision.

    By the way, congratulations on staying up. Pearson should get manager of the year, not for keeping you up but for his eccentric interviews and touch line wrestling!
    Not quite certain yet mathmatically. The improvement is margins, we were losing by the odd goal, but now winning by the odd one. 7/11 of the players yesterday played for us in the Championship last year. Of the other 4 only Ulloa cost anything (£10 million), Cambiasso and Albrighton were free transfers and Huth is on loan.

    Hardly "Moneybags" football.

    I never lost faith with Nigel Pearson. He is no media tart, but rules the roost.
    Huth is a great signing, a Premiership winner with Chelsea and a German international. I'm not going to bother checking it out but I would hazard a guess the average goals conceded is less since Huth arrived.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Having seen my party torn asunder over Europe for the last 25 years or so, I hope people can understand why I'm nervous about the forthcoming referendum

    Not gonna happen TSE.

    They have been torn apart for 25 years because they have never had a democratic say on it. Now they have they cannot complain if the country vote to stay in.
    Not sure that the indyref worked out that way!
    Not bothered what they do, I'm pretty sure that if we voted in then we would abide by that decision.

    By the way, congratulations on staying up. Pearson should get manager of the year, not for keeping you up but for his eccentric interviews and touch line wrestling!
    Not quite certain yet mathmatically. The improvement is margins, we were losing by the odd goal, but now winning by the odd one. 7/11 of the players yesterday played for us in the Championship last year. Of the other 4 only Ulloa cost anything (£10 million), Cambiasso and Albrighton were free transfers and Huth is on loan.

    Hardly "Moneybags" football.

    I never lost faith with Nigel Pearson. He is no media tart, but rules the roost.
    Huth is a great signing, a Premiership winner with Chelsea and a German international. I'm not going to bother checking it out but I would hazard a guess the average goals conceded is less since Huth arrived.
    No doubt at all. We have had loads of clean sheets since he came. If he had not gone off injured against Chelsea we may have had more.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    tyson said:

    Another observation on the 1000 year Reich Tory, self congratulatory, mutual back slapping bonhomie currently pervading this site.


    Are we reading the same site?
    Well, I'd say tyson's analysis is spot on.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    antifrank said:

    I did point out Labour's southern problem

    DanJarvis is scathing on Lab campaign: "More ppl have walked on the moon than the number of Labour MPs elected across the SW, SE and East."

    Labour need to choose a leader who can speak to people in the areas that did not vote Labour this time. The danger is that they will choose another leader who fits in with their current self-image. That is an election-losing strategy.
    Liz Kendall or Stella Creasy fit that bill
    Labour need a younger version of Alan Johnson. Maybe Jarvis fits the bill most closely.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Moses_ said:

    @Tyson - Just remember the Tories faced a Labour party tarnished (unfairly), but tarnished all the same by the 2008 financial crisis, and led by a hapless, hopeless, geeky, dork. And, despite all that it barely squeaked a majority, less seats than Major.

    Balls... It wasn't the crisis it's the spending of the cash in the good years. The country was bust long before 2008 despite constant warnings Brown and labour hosed it....... Just like they always do.

    Moses- it's not worth bothering discussing economics with blatant prejudice. At the time of the crash Labour was spending about 40% of GDP, with a deficit of about 2-3%. The average deficit with Labour was under 2%- this was less than the Tories when they were in power. As far as European countries go, Labour was pretty frugal, and actually more spendthrift than Thatcher's or Major's Tories.

    But heh, don't let the truth get in the way of your tribal, blinkered views.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The LD vote didn't go up in ANY seat... wow

    Went down least in Farron's seat perhaps ?
    In percentage terms Swinson lost 2.38% Farron lost over 8%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    RobD Major won a higher majority than Cameron did too and even gained seats in Scotland
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kle4 said:

    Well, reading this it is clear Dan Jarvis gets it absolutely:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/im-ready-to-serve-in-labours-renewal-but-not-as-leader/

    His time will surely come.

    But his not running is very good news for the Tories.

    It's impressive but something that irks me: "Our pledge to re-introduce the cap on class sizes for 5, 6 and 7-year-olds for instance was and is a good policy. But it was the same policy that first appeared on a Labour pledge card 18 years ago."

    Everyone who wants to make a Big Deal about education, makes noises about reducing class sizes. But the best available research evidence suggests this is not only ineffective, but a total waste of money - we'd do better to have larger classes, but spend the money on top-notch teachers. On the other hand it's one of those things that parents love the idea of, so saying anything otherwise would be a tough-sell.
    I'm with you on that one. The infant class size limit has also led to some perverse results re allocation of school places, as with not enough classes in area, and with the rules for when you can breach the limit so strict even on appeal, I've lost count of the number of times I've seen parents very close to their preferred schools denied places and sent a long way afield.

    Sure, people prefer smaller classes (generally, anyway), and having a target size is not a bad idea, but if a school can prove they can take on more and not have standards suffer (the lack of such a restrictive limit for older years shows how they might be able to manage), for instance with more TAs, they should be able to take on more if they want. I've seen appeals at higher years go through when Headteachers admit (sometimes quite willingly) 'We could handle another x, sure', but the strength of the infant class size limit doesn't allow that.

    But any politician suggesting relaxing the rules will be easy fodder for their opposition I suspect.
    Example #49723 of public policy being mangled by the prioritisation of easily measured, single-headline-number targets, that sounds important (and voters will detest anyone who doesn't promise to deliver them) regardless of what the actual results are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Dair Maybe in 15 years time, the only way there will be indyref 2 in the next 5 years is if there is Brexit and Scotland votes In, but that will have been England's choice to let Scotland go
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Do people want an election result spreadsheet?

    I could run a Python script and scrape the BBC election results if anyone wants that compiled.

    Never heard of a Python script before but it sounds good.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    AndyJS said:

    Of the 40 seats Labour lost to the SNP, 24 of them would require a pro-Labour swing of more than 10% to win back. 10 would require between 8 and 10%, just 6 below 8%.

    That's true. It's also true that those seats had swings of up to 39 per cent this time. Either they are now hugely volatile, or there has been a long-term realignment that increases the likelihood that the UK's Labour Party will never, ever win them back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    FlightPath The danger is for the Tories if Cameron leads the In campaign alongside Labour and the LDs. Some eurosceptic rightwing Tories may be as unforgiving as leftwing Scottish Labour voters were of Murphy and Miliband campaigning alongside the Tories and UKIP would be well placed to pick up their support if it is a narrow In
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Of the 40 seats Labour lost to the SNP, 24 of them would require a pro-Labour swing of more than 10% to win back. 10 would require between 8 and 10%, just 6 below 8%.

    That's true. It's also true that those seats had swings of up to 39 per cent this time. Either they are now hugely volatile, or there has been a long-term realignment that increases the likelihood that the UK's Labour Party will never, ever win them back.
    Unless those SNP members really screw things up (which is unlikely) you'd have to bet on most of them retaining their seats through first time incumbency. I can't see Labour getting many of the seats they need for a majority next time from Scotland, assuming it remains part of the UK.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    Dair Maybe in 15 years time, the only way there will be indyref 2 in the next 5 years is if there is Brexit and Scotland votes In, but that will have been England's choice to let Scotland go

    I guess perhaps you are new to this politics thing.

    There are things called elections where parties put up manifestos. What happens is that in 2016 the SNP put in their manifesto a pledge to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence. They have said they will if it is justifiable. They have also made clear that that justification can be almost ANYTHING.

    Refusal of Westminster to grant FFA - Justification.
    Imposition of FFA without a Scotland advantageous Fiscal Framework - Justification.
    Refusal of Tory Majority Government to "listen to Scotland" - Justification.
    Continued Polling showing ever higher support for Independence - Justification.
    Etc
    Etc
    Etc

    And once it's in the Manifesto then it's up to the people of Scotland. Vote for the SNP including the Manifesto pledge. Or vote for another party, with little chance of winning, probably massively behind, in some cases with a poor record at Holyrood or a Toxic reputation.

    I don't feel pity for your refusal to accept the momentum of history. But it is quite bemusing when Loyalists keep bleating this "there won't be a referendum".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    HYUFD said:

    RobD Major won a higher majority than Cameron did too and even gained seats in Scotland

    He gained 'a' seat in '92 then lost all 11 in '97. He is the great SCon zero man.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Anyway, I'm off to bed, but OGH- I've donated and hope others do too, especially Pulpstar who I think has won a veritable fortune since he got into political betting.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Of the 40 seats Labour lost to the SNP, 24 of them would require a pro-Labour swing of more than 10% to win back. 10 would require between 8 and 10%, just 6 below 8%.

    That's true. It's also true that those seats had swings of up to 39 per cent this time. Either they are now hugely volatile, or there has been a long-term realignment that increases the likelihood that the UK's Labour Party will never, ever win them back.
    Labour will never win back any of these seats before Scottish Independence after which they will be a different party anyway.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Many marginal Tory MPs grateful to @grantshapps shipping in #Team2015 troops on a Saturday. See d'Ancona http://t.co/697VaCtLZh

    But, but, but, there are no Tory ground troops, Grant Shapps is Crap, IOS told us...

    I have found an exclusive photo of IOS infamous army of 1500 dispatched to one seat in London...

    http://blog.core-ed.org/derek/files/2008/10/digital-lemmings.jpg
    Something light reading for your entertainment:

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/comments/190/IOS
    You can pull up a list of poster's old comments? Crap. There goes my plan to pretend I predicted this all along.
    "Midwinter For every one of me there are 10 PB Tories. And the difference is I am going to be right. Oh for the days when everyone was so certain on here that the campaign would tear Ed apart. LOL LOL LOL"

    I think IOS may not be delighting us a little less in the future
    "LOL LOL LOL". quite.
This discussion has been closed.