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Comments
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Due to this joy of probability a 10000 person poll has basically the same margin of error as a 1000 poll.0
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If and as largest party the onus must be on the tories to seek to form a govt. If they cannot then they would tell HMQ so. The PM then has to advise the next choice. If this is the 2nd and 3rd largest then that is their bed to lie on if they chose to. When the LOTO presumably kisses hands to accept, it can only be on the premise of SNP support. He could not do his if the SNP are publicly saying they will not formally offer support.dyedwoolie said:
The palace had already indicated nobody should be approaching the Queen unless they have formal arrangements to get a QS passed. It would be unacceptable to politicise HMQ in this way if there is a chance if a nay vote, and the Tories would pay a heavy price for it.Sandpit said:
I think that if the Tories are the largest party Cameron will insist on putting it to the vote - he will want everyone to see that there is a deal between Miliband and the SNP. If there's a second election Labour will be as screwed in England as they are about to be in Scotland.kle4 said:
I think in that situation Cameron is entitled to stick around and give it a go, so I don't think in that situation he'd go immediately. I'd expect some sort of arrangement between Lab and the SNP would be made in the next week (short of a 'deal' they would try to say) which makes clear the SNP would vote down the Tories and not abstain or vote against an Ed government. At which point even though there's no formal coalition agreement between Ed and the SNP on the cards, Cameron will see that he doesn't have the votes and will resign - I don't think he'll try or be allowed by his own team knifing him to take it to a humiliating vote which they will lose - and Ed will be called.TOPPING said:Watching GOD on the TV (and earlier hearing him on the radio) the following strikes me:
If, after Cons get more votes than Lab but we are in no-mans land (ie Cons 270-290, LD 20-25) so Dave + Nick don't have enough votes for a majority, why should Dave accept that Ed can form or even try to form a govt when Ed has specifically ruled out an SNP pact?
Dave can point out that Lab + SNP is, according to Ed, a no-no; while Ed can’t say “but we’ve got the SNP.”
Or can he?
This is the same if Labour are largest party. The SNP would have to formally make clear their support.0 -
Similar thing happening in the Valleys. Random displays of UKIP signs. Like if somebody in a household likes UKIP, they are willing to put twelve signs and posters up on the house.valleyboy said:There is a definite UKIP vote down here in Pembs, despite a complete lack of campaigning by them. We suspect that much of the vote are people who may not have voted in the past, or used the Libs as a protest vote. We also expect the main 2 parties to lose some votes to them.
I can't remember ever seeing UKIP stuff in previous elections.
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Yep. If nobody can do it, HMQ must appoint a caretaker PM (leader of the largest party) to exercise her prerogatives and dissolve parliament.Flightpathl said:
If and as largest party the onus must be on the tories to seek to form a govt. If they cannot then they would tell HMQ so. The PM then has to advise the next choice. If this is the 2nd and 3rd largest then that is their bed to lie on if they chose to. When the LOTO presumably kisses hands to accept, it can only be on the premise of SNP support. He could not do his if the SNP are publicly saying they will not formally offer support.dyedwoolie said:
The palace had already indicated nobody should be approaching the Queen unless they have formal arrangements to get a QS passed. It would be unacceptable to politicise HMQ in this way if there is a chance if a nay vote, and the Tories would pay a heavy price for it.Sandpit said:
I think that if the Tories are the largest party Cameron will insist on putting it to the vote - he will want everyone to see that there is a deal between Miliband and the SNP. If there's a second election Labour will be as screwed in England as they are about to be in Scotland.kle4 said:
I think in that situation Cameron is entitled to stick around and give it a go, so I don't think in that situation he'd go immediately. I'd expect some sort of arrangement between Lab and the SNP would be made in the next week (short of a 'deal' they would try to say) which makes clear the SNP would vote down the Tories and not abstain or vote against an Ed government. At which point even though there's no formal coalition agreement between Ed and the SNP on the cards, Cameron will see that he doesn't have the votes and will resign - I don't think he'll try or be allowed by his own team knifing him to take it to a humiliating vote which they will lose - and Ed will be called.TOPPING said:Watching GOD on the TV (and earlier hearing him on the radio) the following strikes me:
If, after Cons get more votes than Lab but we are in no-mans land (ie Cons 270-290, LD 20-25) so Dave + Nick don't have enough votes for a majority, why should Dave accept that Ed can form or even try to form a govt when Ed has specifically ruled out an SNP pact?
Dave can point out that Lab + SNP is, according to Ed, a no-no; while Ed can’t say “but we’ve got the SNP.”
Or can he?
This is the same if Labour are largest party. The SNP would have to formally make clear their support.0 -
UKIP will get votes in Wales. Will give those who believe UKIP should focus on being an 'English party' pause for thought.Fenster said:
Similar thing happening in the Valleys. Random displays of UKIP signs. Like if somebody in a household likes UKIP, they are willing to put twelve signs and posters up on the house.valleyboy said:There is a definite UKIP vote down here in Pembs, despite a complete lack of campaigning by them. We suspect that much of the vote are people who may not have voted in the past, or used the Libs as a protest vote. We also expect the main 2 parties to lose some votes to them.
I can't remember ever seeing UKIP stuff in previous elections.0 -
The SNP aren't standing in Islington South & Finsbury. My options this time are quite mundane. I do have the option of Cannabis Is Safer Than Tobacco.Alistair said:0 -
is there a 3000 Ashcroft Poll still due - maybe this evening??0
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This good for Labour from Guido: http://youtu.be/j1TJKX-_9sA0
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Just had Greens push through the same leaflet as the one which arrived yesterday am. Another generic vote for what you believe in stuff. Had more than enough of woolly utopian socialism in the past, and have no intention of voting for that sort of platform.
They might eat at the Labour vote in Bristol West, but rickshaws stunts, and charity stalls on Gloucester Rd are not substitutes for data gathering and analysis. LDs & Labour appear to profile the seat, the Greens on the basis of what I have had don't.
Examples of leaflets can be found on www.electionleaflets.org/0 -
Labour will rack up several million votes in Scotland for almost no return. The 35% strategy should mean Labour voters should be more attracted where they are already strong, and total left wing vote against them ha dropped since the last election, but the efficiency of SNP and lib dems should mean that their 70 seats will come from around the same votes as approx Ukip and possibly 5 seats max.OllyT said:
Why, please explain ? I am pretty sure it is because of differential turnouts in safe seats etc.Nemtynakht said:
Not sure that is true anymore.OllyT said:
Maybe people are looking at the direction of movement this week. You are also seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that the Tories need to be several points ahead of Labour in order to even get the same number of seats.chestnut said:So much euphoria at polls that show Labour narrowly behind or tied
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A politics side note:
Former Rhondda MP Allan Rogers is the president of our rugby club - he's 80 now and in good nick. He has good old parliament stories to tell.
Yesterday his grandson became the youngest player to play for our 1st team, at the tender age of 17. Good player too; a strong, tall, skilful centre - already signed to the Dragons development squad.
Allan has a Labour poster up in his window, flying the flag for his old party.0 -
I agree thats the only explantion. What I can't work out is whether the data is wrong and they are incompetent or the data is right and they are in the sh1t. Where Cameron has been campaigning makes me think the latter. Would be nice to have leak or two from cchq...actually maybe that there is no leaks tells a story on its own.
I agree with you that the second explanation is more likely: we are told Labour has a superior ground operation and intelligence, which helped them in 2010, so I doubt it is because the data is sh1t.
On CCHQ, their big ace is fear amongst Conservative voters of an Ed Government. You certainly would not want to be encouraging them that it is safe to not vote Tory.0 -
Sorry, that was in reply to NoEasyDay0
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I'm not sure PBers do either. I think there is an increasing disconnect between everybody and reality. The PhD theses should be on why.DecrepitJohnL said:
This election may be several PhD theses waiting to happen. Cameron is better loved than Ed but do we vote for parties or presidents? The economy is improving but is it enough to offset Plan A's flatlining the recovery? Has money spent voter-targeting via social media seen the Tories home?stodge said:
As far as the Conservatives are concerned, if the aim was to stun the Labour heart and brain with innovative policies the reality has been they've hacked at limbs and often missed. This should have been an easy election for the Conservatives with the huge advantages of an improving economy, a weak Labour leader (apparently), a popular Prime Minister and a huge war chest with which to fight the election.
But it is hard to escape the conclusion that both main parties know sod all about politics.
For those interested in taking their minds of the whole thing - I note that the Avengers episode on 'True Entertainment' in 5 mins time is that one about the Hellfire Club. I think perhaps I will watch Salvage Hunters.0 -
It's now got to the point where I've given up speculating and am preparing for the worst case scenario where the pols are right while also preparing for the potential pleasant surprise of them being significantly off.NoEasyDay said:TheKitchenCabinet said:
I agree thats the only explantion. What I can't work out is whether the data is wrong and they are incompetent or the data is right and they are in the sh1t. Where Cameron has been campaigning makes me think the latter. Would be nice to have leak or two from cchq...actually maybe that there is no leaks tells a story on its own.dyedwoolie said:
SnipTheKitchenCabinet said:
Snipdyedwoolie said:Thoughts on Labour
Snip
The key difference with 1997 is that this time Labour started being optimistic overall but that optimism has faded. One of the things that gets missed about Ed is that he is a big numbers geek: he knows the data inside out and he would have been more aware than anyone that, despite what the press said, the numbers favoured him on seat distribution. Hence how he has brushed off the insults. But that has now changed -you do not rush to Russell Brand or do #EdStone if you think you are on course to win, which opinion poll numbers suggest. The most likeliest explanation is that the data they are getting back is not what they predicted.Danny565 said:
There is something in the argument that Labour are ALWAYS very pessimistic, though, especially from opposition. There were tons of seats in 1997 where resources were pulled because they assumed they had no chance, which they ended up winning.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Go with the simplest explanation i.e. that they are indeed worried from what they are hearing back. Ever since that Labour Uncut article, the mood music has changed from Labour.dyedwoolie said:Thoughts on Labour apparant gloom.
They know they are narrowly ahead on seats but not by enough to make it without the SNP and possibly Liberals? Therefore they know it's going to go tittius verticus?
That fits the polling, many of the predictions of narrow Labour plurality, and the marginals polling.
Tories relieved because they have the South in the bag, Labour have lost Scotland and they stand to mop up in any possible GE2?
Something like that hmmmm?
That doesn't mean that their pessimism is definitely not well-founded this time, of course.0 -
What story would you suggest?NoEasyDay said:
I agree thats the only explantion. What I can't work out is whether the data is wrong and they are incompetent or the data is right and they are in the sh1t. Where Cameron has been campaigning makes me think the latter. Would be nice to have leak or two from cchq...actually maybe that there is no leaks tells a story on its own.TheKitchenCabinet said:dyedwoolie said:
Possibly yes, but what makes Labour gloomy and what we might expect would make them gloomy in terms of expectations are not interchangeable integers!TheKitchenCabinet said:
Go with the simplest explanation i.e. that they are indeed worried from what they are hearing back. Ever since that Labour Uncut article, the mood music has changed from Labour.dyedwoolie said:Thoughts on Labour
Tories relieved because they have the South in the bag, Labour have lost Scotland and they stand to mop up in any possible GE2?
Something like that hmmmm?
The key difference with 1997 is that this time Labour started being optimistic overall but that optimism has faded. One of the things that gets missed about Ed is that he is a big numbers geek: he knows the data inside out and he would have been more aware than anyone that, despite what the press said, the numbers favoured him on seat distribution. Hence how he has brushed off the insults. But that has now changed -you do not rush to Russell Brand or do #EdStone if you think you are on course to win, which opinion poll numbers suggest. The most likeliest explanation is that the data they are getting back is not what they predicted.Danny565 said:
There is something in the argument that Labour are ALWAYS very pessimistic, though, especially from opposition. There were tons of seats in 1997 where resources were pulled because they assumed they had no chance, which they ended up winning.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Go with the simplest explanation i.e. that they are indeed worried from what they are hearing back. Ever since that Labour Uncut article, the mood music has changed from Labour.dyedwoolie said:Thoughts on Labour apparant gloom.
They know they are narrowly ahead on seats but not by enough to make it without the SNP and possibly Liberals? Therefore they know it's going to go tittius verticus?
That fits the polling, many of the predictions of narrow Labour plurality, and the marginals polling.
Tories relieved because they have the South in the bag, Labour have lost Scotland and they stand to mop up in any possible GE2?
Something like that hmmmm?
That doesn't mean that their pessimism is definitely not well-founded this time, of course.
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 37s37 seconds ago
Polling Observatory seat forecast
LAB 273
CON 271
LD 24
SNP 55
UKIP 2
LAB most seats 5.1 Betfair0 -
The SNP would not have to formally make clear anything. They have the right to vote whichever way they want.Flightpathl said:
If and as largest party the onus must be on the tories to seek to form a govt. If they cannot then they would tell HMQ so. The PM then has to advise the next choice. If this is the 2nd and 3rd largest then that is their bed to lie on if they chose to. When the LOTO presumably kisses hands to accept, it can only be on the premise of SNP support. He could not do his if the SNP are publicly saying they will not formally offer support.dyedwoolie said:
The palace had already indicated nobody should be approaching the Queen unless they have formal arrangements to get a QS passed. It would be unacceptable to politicise HMQ in this way if there is a chance if a nay vote, and the Tories would pay a heavy price for it.Sandpit said:
I think that if the Tories are the largest party Cameron will insist on putting it to the vote - he will want everyone to see that there is a deal between Miliband and the SNP. If there's a second election Labour will be as screwed in England as they are about to be in Scotland.kle4 said:
I think in that situation Cameron is entitled to stick around and give it a go, so I don't think in that situation he'd go immediately. I'd expect some sort of arrangement between Lab and the SNP would be made in the next week (short of a 'deal' they would try to say) which makes clear the SNP would vote down the Tories and not abstain or vote against an Ed government. At which point even though there's no formal coalition agreement between Ed and the SNP on the cards, Cameron will see that he doesn't have the votes and will resign - I don't think he'll try or be allowed by his own team knifing him to take it to a humiliating vote which they will lose - and Ed will be called.TOPPING said:Watching GOD on the TV (and earlier hearing him on the radio) the following strikes me:
Dave can point out that Lab + SNP is, according to Ed, a no-no; while Ed can’t say “but we’ve got the SNP.”
Or can he?
This is the same if Labour are largest party. The SNP would have to formally make clear their support.
If Cameron resigns, the Queen will ask Miliband to form a government. The QS does not have to put to the House immediately. Miliband may assure the Queen that he has the numbers. After all, no one can ever prove it before a vote.
By the way, Harold Wilson, in his book clarified that a resigning PM does not advise the Queen of his/her successor nor is the Queen bound by it.0 -
It's good reporting. There's not been much of that during this election campaign.cossmann said:This good for Labour from Guido: http://youtu.be/j1TJKX-_9sA
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"Are you guys all sitting in a room, gathered around the same bong?" Mega Arf!0
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Greens being squeezed in London (one of their strong areas) according to the Evening Standard poll.
Down from 4.5% in the mayoral election to 3%.
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What's the worst possible result (for everyone)? I'd suggest some result where LAB+SNP is just bigger than Con+LD+UKIP+DUP, and where Lab+LD is less than Con. Maybe something like
Con 284, Lab 264, LD 20. SNP 57, UKIP 7, DUP 9
Sod's law being the only universal certainty I guess that's what we'll get!
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Youguv.Are they gonna give the Tories a 5 point lead...lol!0
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Convention dictates he should have the numbers. Lying to HMQ would be the end of him and Labour, so he can go for it if he wishes for sure.surbiton said:
The SNP would not have to formally make clear anything. They have the right to vote whichever way they want.Flightpathl said:
If and as largest party the onus must be on the tories to seek to form a govt. If they cannot then they would tell HMQ so. The PM then has to advise the next choice. If this is the 2nd and 3rd largest then that is their bed to lie on if they chose to. When the LOTO presumably kisses hands to accept, it can only be on the premise of SNP support. He could not do his if the SNP are publicly saying they will not formally offer support.dyedwoolie said:
The palace had already indicated nobody should be approaching the Queen unless they have formal arrangements to get a QS passed. It would be unacceptable to politicise HMQ in this way if there is a chance if a nay vote, and the Tories would pay a heavy price for it.Sandpit said:
I think that if the Tories are the largest party Cameron will insist on putting it to the vote - he will want everyone to see that there is a deal between Miliband and the SNP. If there's a second election Labour will be as screwed in England as they are about to be in Scotland.kle4 said:
I think in that situation Cameron is entitled to stick around and give it a go, so I don't think in that situation he'd go immediately. I'd expect some sort of arrangement between Lab and the SNP would be made in the next week (short of a 'deal' they would try to say) which makes clear the SNP would vote down the Tories and not abstain or vote against an Ed government. At which point even though there's no formal coalition agreement between Ed and the SNP on the cards, Cameron will see that he doesn't have the votes and will resign - I don't think he'll try or be allowed by his own team knifing him to take it to a humiliating vote which they will lose - and Ed will be called.TOPPING said:Watching GOD on the TV (and earlier hearing him on the radio) the following strikes me:
Dave can point out that Lab + SNP is, according to Ed, a no-no; while Ed can’t say “but we’ve got the SNP.”
Or can he?
This is the same if Labour are largest party. The SNP would have to formally make clear their support.
If Cameron resigns, the Queen will ask Miliband to form a government. The QS does not have to put to the House immediately. Miliband may assure the Queen that he has the numbers. After all, no one can ever prove it before a vote.
By the way, Harold Wilson, in his book clarified that a resigning PM does not advise the Queen of his/her successor nor is the Queen bound by it.0 -
Eve of poll SUPER ARSE with added SUPER APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
3333 seconds0 -
Quite. Dave will try for a minority government if the numbers mean that the only alternative is a pact between SNP and Labour. They will have to talk to each other, which Ed has made clear he won't do.NoEasyDay said:
If there has to be a formal arrangement then Edstone will have to talk to the SNP. If there are not enough libs to bail him out. I suspect this where cam tries to go minority government.dyedwoolie said:
The palace had already indicated nobody should be approaching the Queen unless they have formal arrangements to get a QS passed. It would be unacceptable to politicise HMQ in this way if there is a chance if a nay vote, and the Tories would pay a heavy price for it.Sandpit said:
I think that if the Tories are the largest party Cameron will insist on putting it to the vote - he will want everyone to see that there is a deal between Miliband and the SNP. If there's a second election Labour will be as screwed in England as they are about to be in Scotland.kle4 said:
I think in that situation Cameron is entitled to stick around and give it a go, so I don't think in that situation he'd go immediately. I'd expect some sort of arrangement between Lab and the SNP would be made in the next week (short of a 'deal' they would try to say) which makes clear the SNP would vote down the Tories and not abstain or vote against an Ed government. At which point even though there's no formal coalition agreement between Ed and the SNP on the cards, Cameron will see that he doesn't have the votes and will resign - I don't think he'll try or be allowed by his own team knifing him to take it to a humiliating vote which they will lose - and Ed will be called.TOPPING said:Watching GOD on the TV (and earlier hearing him on the radio) the following strikes me:
If, after Cons get more votes than Lab but we are in no-mans land (ie Cons 270-290, LD 20-25) so Dave + Nick don't have enough votes for a majority, why should Dave accept that Ed can form or even try to form a govt when Ed has specifically ruled out an SNP pact?
Dave can point out that Lab + SNP is, according to Ed, a no-no; while Ed can’t say “but we’ve got the SNP.”
Or can he?
The politics of it from there could be hilarious, as Salmond basically has Ed by the balls if Mili wants power, he'll keep him in place either for a few months or until the Scottish election then force GEII with Labour being slaughtered in England for doing the deal. Ed's best plan for his party if not for himself is to go for the quick GEII or even a grand coalition.0 -
People finally waking up to Lab most seats. Will history record it as a late swing to the possibility of Lab most seats, even though it should have been seen as much more likely than it has been from the start?bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 37s37 seconds ago
Polling Observatory seat forecast
LAB 273
CON 271
LD 24
SNP 55
UKIP 2
LAB most seats 5.1 Betfair
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If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government0
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Lol, pollsters have been split all along on it, and political punditskle4 said:
People finally waking up to Lab most seats. Will history record it as a late swing to the possibility of Lab most seats, even though it should have been seen as much more likely than it has been from the start?bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 37s37 seconds ago
Polling Observatory seat forecast
LAB 273
CON 271
LD 24
SNP 55
UKIP 2
LAB most seats 5.1 Betfair0 -
bigjohnowls said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 37s37 seconds ago
Polling Observatory seat forecast
LAB 273
CON 271
LD 24
SNP 55
UKIP 2
LAB most seats 5.1 Betfair
That's a pretty messy outcome.0 -
The figures were very good from CCHQ 4 days ago. There is no doubt that Labour voters are feeling galvanised now so squeaky bum time. Reds claim they 1,000 going to Battersea tomorrow. Pointless really but hey ho. If polls are correct then Labour most seatsdyedwoolie said:
He's far too amusing to be MacGuireJohnO said:
Oh, he knew the contents of that ICM poll and is very quick off the mark with yougov. I imagine he's a journo (Toilets McGuire would be fun) or a senior Labour hack.Danny565 said:Someone summon Compouter2. He foresaw the ICM Poll (whether it was a prediction or inside info)....what do you think YouGov will be?
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I have visions of Cameron passing a QS and some on here STILL being depressed about the final ICM, lol0
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Ed in Pudsey,Colne Valley and Elmet and Rothwell today.0
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Time will tellDixie said:
The figures were very good from CCHQ 4 days ago. There is no doubt that Labour voters are feeling galvanised now so squeaky bum time. Reds claim they 1,000 going to Battersea tomorrow. Pointless really but hey ho. If polls are correct then Labour most seatsdyedwoolie said:
He's far too amusing to be MacGuireJohnO said:
Oh, he knew the contents of that ICM poll and is very quick off the mark with yougov. I imagine he's a journo (Toilets McGuire would be fun) or a senior Labour hack.Danny565 said:Someone summon Compouter2. He foresaw the ICM Poll (whether it was a prediction or inside info)....what do you think YouGov will be?
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Labour Secretary of State for Scotland 2015-2020?Omnium said:Just had a cheery thought. Ed Balls may find himself in the worst job in the world.
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Would there still be a leader of the opposition (SNP?) on only 40 or so seats?dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
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Is there a page which summarises bets across bookies and shows best odds? Sure I have seen that somewhere0
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And Leeds0
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Of course they would be - they wanted to motivate the troops.Dixie said:
The figures were very good from CCHQ 4 days ago. There is no doubt that Labour voters are feeling galvanised now so squeaky bum time. Reds claim they 1,000 going to Battersea tomorrow. Pointless really but hey ho. If polls are correct then Labour most seatsdyedwoolie said:
He's far too amusing to be MacGuireJohnO said:
Oh, he knew the contents of that ICM poll and is very quick off the mark with yougov. I imagine he's a journo (Toilets McGuire would be fun) or a senior Labour hack.Danny565 said:Someone summon Compouter2. He foresaw the ICM Poll (whether it was a prediction or inside info)....what do you think YouGov will be?
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It is possible I may be overreacting a tad, I'll admit.dyedwoolie said:
Lol, pollsters have been split all along on it, and political punditskle4 said:
People finally waking up to Lab most seats. Will history record it as a late swing to the possibility of Lab most seats, even though it should have been seen as much more likely than it has been from the start?bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 37s37 seconds ago
Polling Observatory seat forecast
LAB 273
CON 271
LD 24
SNP 55
UKIP 2
LAB most seats 5.1 Betfair
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Imagine being tripped up by Burley, the fecking humiliation.anotherDave said:
It's good reporting. There's not been much of that during this election campaign.cossmann said:This good for Labour from Guido: http://youtu.be/j1TJKX-_9sA
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Just picked up the latest (and probably last) election communication from my letterbox in Ealing Central and Acton. It's from the Lib-Dems, whose candidate concludes, 'P.S. Remember we live in a 3-way marginal ...'
Ah, bless, he's still using the present tense.0 -
Probably a breakaway of one of the two main parties. You could see up to 100 saying no way and refusing the whip. There would be one though, yeslogical_song said:
Would there still be a leader of the opposition (SNP?) on only 40 or so seats?dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
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One note for people going to bed (or wanting to bet) after Sunderland results.
There are a lot more Labour Voters than Tory voters in 2010 - so there is a good chance that in absolute numbers there are more red kippers than blue kippers. I would discount a modest swing Lab- Con in those seats. If there is no swing (unless UKIP do phenomenally well) it will look good for Ed.0 -
oddschecker.comNemtynakht said:Is there a page which summarises bets across bookies and shows best odds? Sure I have seen that somewhere
easyodds.com
new thread btw0 -
Video of people queuing up to see Ed in Leeds now.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/06/election-2015-live-controversial-welfare-cuts-revealed-campaign-final-day0 -
That's probably a Lib/Lab coalition, isn't it?Jonathan said:bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 37s37 seconds ago
Polling Observatory seat forecast
LAB 273
CON 271
LD 24
SNP 55
UKIP 2
LAB most seats 5.1 Betfair
That's a pretty messy outcome.
Bad result for my betting bank, but a perfectly plausible one.0 -
That's make PMQs fun if it is Alex v Dave.dyedwoolie said:
Probably a breakaway of one of the two main parties. You could see up to 100 saying no way and refusing the whip. There would be one though, yeslogical_song said:
Would there still be a leader of the opposition (SNP?) on only 40 or so seats?dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
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I do not think Labour would be bound to bring forward a Queen's Speech, if they took office after a Tory QS was defeated.dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
MacDonald didn't in 1924.0 -
Thank you and you are right. The Dalai Lama said 'fun is imperative' to paraphrase and mis-spell the great man.dyedwoolie said:
Sigh. It isn't. Not in general. Polls over the last day gave been split on movement to or from the big two. The three largest moves have been Ashcroft and ICM to red and ComRes to blue.Dixie said:
Blues can't keep dreaming that next poll will be good. Momentum is with reds. Hopefully, that will change.RobD said:
An Internet poll that's good for CON, Tory majority nailed onbigjohnowls said:Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 6m6 minutes ago
Wow. We now have the final @YouGov poll for #GE2015; 10,000 asked. Peter Kellner's final seat projection also revealed at 10pm on #SunNation
TND ramping has to be good for CON one presumes but its only an internet poll so assume PB Tories will ignore it!!
The depression over a single, partial, poll is almost hilarious!
Get some backbone and back your horses home, people.
This is fun!
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Depending on who led the national government, the junior partner might well see 50-100 breakaway as 'independent Con or Lab' and become the largest group in opposition which would make them LOTO. Step forward, John Redwood!RobD said:
That's make PMQs fun if it is Alex v Dave.dyedwoolie said:
Probably a breakaway of one of the two main parties. You could see up to 100 saying no way and refusing the whip. There would be one though, yeslogical_song said:
Would there still be a leader of the opposition (SNP?) on only 40 or so seats?dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
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The point is, the palace have been clear that HMQ will not tolerate being put in the position of delivering a QS that may not pass. They are overplaying their hand a bit but there is the possibility of an existential crisis for the current constitutional settlement/monarchy if the result is deadlockRodCrosby said:
I do not think Labour would be bound to bring forward a Queen's Speech, if they took office after a Tory QS was defeated.dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
MacDonald didn't in 1924.
Edit - after a failed QS the failing leader will have to explain how and why HMQ was put in this position and deal with the consequences of parliament expressly denying the will of the monarch as set out in her speech, as well as take the blame for it and the ensuing constitutional meltdown.
But no, no need for a second QS, indeed it's unthinkable0 -
I could see an enlarged 'awkward squad' (75?) breaking off the Tories in a National Government while a party obliterates Labor from the left (Loony Unity?).dyedwoolie said:
Depending on who led the national government, the junior partner might well see 50-100 breakaway as 'independent Con or Lab' and become the largest group in opposition which would make them LOTO. Step forward, John Redwood!RobD said:
That's make PMQs fun if it is Alex v Dave.dyedwoolie said:
Probably a breakaway of one of the two main parties. You could see up to 100 saying no way and refusing the whip. There would be one though, yeslogical_song said:
Would there still be a leader of the opposition (SNP?) on only 40 or so seats?dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
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PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Blocking EU referendum a 'top priority' for Lib Dems - Vince Cable http://polho.me/1dNbzpw pic.twitter.com/A47qAmX6d7
Not very liberal or democratic party.0 -
Great atmosphere here at the Pavilion in Broadstairs. #UKIP pic.twitter.com/GKr5N6ScNi
— UKIP (@UKIP) May 6, 20150 -
Kippers will do no such thing!Plato said:0 -
Blocking Vince top priority for Twickenham voters says countryTykejohnno said:
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Blocking EU referendum a 'top priority' for Lib Dems - Vince Cable http://polho.me/1dNbzpw pic.twitter.com/A47qAmX6d7
Not very liberal or democratic party.0 -
When do the bookies stop accepting bets? When the polls close presumably?0
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@PanelbaseMD: Final #GE2015 @panelbase GB poll: LAB 33% (-1), CON 31% (-1%), UKIP 16% (-1), LD 8% (NC), GRN 5% (+1), SNP 5%, OTH 2. Tables very shortly.0
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Continued membership of the EU is not without its risks. Something many europhiles seem to forget when they bang on about a referendum causing damage to the UK economy.Tykejohnno said:
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Blocking EU referendum a 'top priority' for Lib Dems - Vince Cable http://polho.me/1dNbzpw pic.twitter.com/A47qAmX6d7
Not very liberal or democratic party.
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Nope, they'll be betting all night.MP_SE said:When do the bookies stop accepting bets? When the polls close presumably?
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Both parties would suffer horribly for uniting in the national interest. Politics can be cruel as well as profitable they would find.Chameleon said:
I could see an enlarged 'awkward squad' (75?) breaking off the Tories in a National Government while a party obliterates Labor from the left (Loony Unity?).dyedwoolie said:
Depending on who led the national government, the junior partner might well see 50-100 breakaway as 'independent Con or Lab' and become the largest group in opposition which would make them LOTO. Step forward, John Redwood!RobD said:
That's make PMQs fun if it is Alex v Dave.dyedwoolie said:
Probably a breakaway of one of the two main parties. You could see up to 100 saying no way and refusing the whip. There would be one though, yeslogical_song said:
Would there still be a leader of the opposition (SNP?) on only 40 or so seats?dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
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Panelbase find the opposite movement to ICM, from Lab TO green. Not at all confusing.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: Final #GE2015 @panelbase GB poll: LAB 33% (-1), CON 31% (-1%), UKIP 16% (-1), LD 8% (NC), GRN 5% (+1), SNP 5%, OTH 2. Tables very shortly.
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Great! Thanks.Tissue_Price said:
Nope, they'll be betting all night.MP_SE said:When do the bookies stop accepting bets? When the polls close presumably?
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Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie · 56m56 minutes ago
EXCLUSIVE: Union bosses tell Miliband: Offer Lib Dems voting reform to keep Cameron out http://news.channel4.com/election2015/05/06/ … by @MichaelLCrick
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I bet there will be a few tactically voting Scottish Tories who have already voted by post trying to recover their ballots !!bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 37s37 seconds ago
Polling Observatory seat forecast
LAB 273
CON 271
LD 24
SNP 55
UKIP 2
LAB most seats 5.1 Betfair0 -
That was on C4 news just now.Tykejohnno said:Tim Bouverie @TimPBouverie · 56m56 minutes ago
EXCLUSIVE: Union bosses tell Miliband: Offer Lib Dems voting reform to keep Cameron out http://news.channel4.com/election2015/05/06/ … by @MichaelLCrick
Chuka Ummanna dissed it.0 -
If the Mail, Telegraph or Express recommends the reciprocal i.e. Tories vote UKIP in unwinnable seats then something might happen.Plato said:0 -
Lots of silly speculation again. We are not at war.dyedwoolie said:
Probably a breakaway of one of the two main parties. You could see up to 100 saying no way and refusing the whip. There would be one though, yeslogical_song said:
Would there still be a leader of the opposition (SNP?) on only 40 or so seats?dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
Mrs Thatcher once said she would be happy with Helmut Schmidt in her cabinet he was such a moderate. That kind of SDP politics makes a grand coalition easier in Germany. There would be little practical a Con/Lab coalition could do. No point to one.0 -
And I predict there will be some stonking over reactions on Betfair which the savvy punter will be able to profit from.Tissue_Price said:
Nope, they'll be betting all night.MP_SE said:When do the bookies stop accepting bets? When the polls close presumably?
I however will be asleep.
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The polls seem like a shot in the dark. I'm confused already , and the polls are making me more confused.0
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Sympathy?SMukesh said:Video of people queuing up to see Ed in Leeds now.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/06/election-2015-live-controversial-welfare-cuts-revealed-campaign-final-day0 -
This seems rather highflown. A 'QS' may be passed easily, but any individual bill in it may be defeated - indeed it may even be defeated in the Lords. The Queens Speech has nothing to do with the 'will of the monarch'. She is reading a speech given to her by the govt. Its given to her on the day by the Lord Chancellor.dyedwoolie said:
The point is, the palace have been clear that HMQ will not tolerate being put in the position of delivering a QS that may not pass. They are overplaying their hand a bit but there is the possibility of an existential crisis for the current constitutional settlement/monarchy if the result is deadlockRodCrosby said:
I do not think Labour would be bound to bring forward a Queen's Speech, if they took office after a Tory QS was defeated.dyedwoolie said:If neither party can guarantee a QS, pressure will be brought to bear for national government
MacDonald didn't in 1924.
Edit - after a failed QS the failing leader will have to explain how and why HMQ was put in this position and deal with the consequences of parliament expressly denying the will of the monarch as set out in her speech, as well as take the blame for it and the ensuing constitutional meltdown.
But no, no need for a second QS, indeed it's unthinkable
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Con/LD coalition total nudging up on the spreads.....
Sportingindex: 316 (290+26)
Spreadex: 314.5 (289+25.5)0 -
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Do we have Gold Standard PB Hodge list of those who openly declared that Ed Miliband would never be PM?0
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Stig Abell @StigAbell 23m23 minutes ago
Tories to lead coalition on weekdays; Labour at weekends and on holidays. Shared custody of Nick Clegg, obviously.
YouGov is definitely looking like a 10,000 sample tie.0 -
Where is everyone and where is JackW?0
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PfP, are you in the Finborough tomorrow?peter_from_putney said:Where is everyone and where is JackW?
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Sporting's Con/Lab seat Supremacy spread is currently 22 - 28.
Will OGH be topping up his SELL bet?0 -
@compouter2
'Political party in members only audience shocker.'
So why do they pretend they are ordinary people ?0 -
Probably not HP, although it's just possible that I might put in a guest appearance around midnight.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
PfP, are you in the Finborough tomorrow?peter_from_putney said:Where is everyone and where is JackW?
I sort of gave up on this event because there has been so little promotion of it and I assumed that it had been called off - the odd routine beer evening gets mentioned time and time again on PB.com, but there you go, not very well organised.
How about your good self?0 -
The real poll starts in nine hours and will say what it says. It will be fascinating and I think that we are all (and the Pollsters too) in uncharted waters.
To everyone on PB who is taking an active part in these elections, good luck to you all and remember that while there is much that divides us, there is more that unites us and at least we all care enough to get involved!
We shall see who has egg on their faces very soon now!0 -
LD- Lab-SNP coalition to block a referendum.Tykejohnno said:
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Blocking EU referendum a 'top priority' for Lib Dems - Vince Cable http://polho.me/1dNbzpw pic.twitter.com/A47qAmX6d7
Not very liberal or democratic party.
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MoE, surelydyedwoolie said:
Panelbase find the opposite movement to ICM, from Lab TO green. Not at all confusing.TheScreamingEagles said:@PanelbaseMD: Final #GE2015 @panelbase GB poll: LAB 33% (-1), CON 31% (-1%), UKIP 16% (-1), LD 8% (NC), GRN 5% (+1), SNP 5%, OTH 2. Tables very shortly.
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