Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.
Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.
Is that actually worth anything? I am very skeptical of these "wisdom indices".
We will now have the curious febrile background of Labour MPs going into tomorrow night's count not believing the polling and thinking they are going to lose and Tory MPs resigned to believing them and thinking they are going to lose too. They can't both be right.
True enough. Unsurprisingly I tend to think its the Labour ones who are wrong, and they are just surprised that nothing in the campaign has hit them, and that the election fundamentals continue to favour them as much as they do. They should relax a bit - they were never doing so well they could be complacent, but they were always doing well, it was just a question of whether they would creep over the line into doing very well.
Only question now is whether Ed can get into No.10 with the LDs or will need the SNP too, and so whether he goes minority in any case. I think I predicted 290ish yesterday. I'm saying 290-300 today.
The internals aren't that good for Con - they're brilliant in regard to leader ratings, but there's only a few percentage points separating them and Labour in terms of the outcome and majority government preferred. Given the Conservative narrative towards Lab/SNP you'd expect it to be higher than that.
FPT: The wishful thinking 'disease' has spread far and wide. Time to move on.
EICIPM is real. EICIPM is likely. Bet accordingly, and try and move swiftly through the denial and anger phases with the help of a bottle of fine wine and a tub of Ben and Jerry's.
Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.
Is that actually worth anything? I am very skeptical of these "wisdom indices".
The ICM Wisdom poll was the most accurate poll at the last election
If final polls this evening show Tories +3, clearly there's been no late jump in that time, so what's even the point? May as well leave the dead heat as your final poll, no-one can blame you for calling it that way. If it shows Lab lead on the other hand, that would be more notable given ICM being kinder to the Tories recently)
Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.
Is that actually worth anything? I am very skeptical of these "wisdom indices".
The ICM Wisdom poll was the most accurate poll at the last election
In that case, then why care about provisional VI ICM polls? Why not only focus on the Wisdom Indexes, if even the ICM VI (which is seen on here as the gold standard) didn't get it right last time out?
I don't see how either of those is encouraging for Con if the poll is accurate - it'll just mean they can be more bitter because people thought they would win and preferred them to win but still people didn't vote for them.
Some interesting (for Scots) polling coming out from Wings while we wait (no tables yet) - just been polling to find out the voting intentions of Rangers fans:
Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland Many of you got it - it's UKIP on 36%, with Labour next on 25%, then the SNP on 14% and the Tories trailing in with 9%. Honestly surprised.
(The significance is that Jim Murphy has been targeting th Glasgow Man demographic. Now to wait and see for Celtic.)
You could have saved yourselves a lot of angst just by listening to me for the last two months.
Narrow Ed Miliband plurality. As I said. Many many times.
What about those calling it for Ed for years? Granted not me, I was predicting a Lab majority which doesn't seem likely, but no-one should be surprised tomorrow.
The internals aren't that good for Con - they're brilliant in regard to leader ratings, but there's only a few percentage points separating them and Labour in terms of the outcome and majority government preferred. Given the Conservative narrative towards Lab/SNP you'd expect it to be higher than that.
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.
But who cares? It doesn't matter what people think, it's how they vote.
I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,
That more people haven't yet moved to the 'I don't mind losing this one, as we'll smash 'em next time' stage says to me Con are still genuinely hopeful, but I fear it is only a matter of time. Look for it a week or so after the initial anger stage occurs.
Whilst I'd have much preferred a more pro-Tory ICM, on the plus side - it's making staying up all tomorrow night after a marathon day telling/smiling seem more entertaining.
Sure I'll fall asleep just when I didn't plan too and wake up at 8am!
I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,
The ground game is about the months, even years, leading to the election. Not the last few days.
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
A weak Tory government forces Labour to hang on to Ed of course. Any further GE in the short term probably hurts anyone that is seen to have precipitated it.
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
It could well be yet more Guardian hubris - this is the preliminary poll, not the final one.
Looks like some Labour/Green churn, which could turn out to be significant, though.
Worth noting that the Wisdom index poll gives the Tories a three point lead.
If the polls are right I think that following this, and Romney, and indyref, you may have to retire from predictions altogether, old boy.
I am beyond confident that I am right. I just cannot see how Labour is going to have net gains of 50 or more in England and Wales. I can see a way to 30 or so, maybe a few more with a fair wind, but nowhere near enough to be the largest party.
But if I am wrong, that's me done. I will have to accept I am clueless.
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
Yeah the Tory right have been quiet recently, and I think people are forgetting what a nightmare they'll probably be for Cameron et. al. if the election goes poorly
IME this time, the Tories have been very organised and persistent. I get the impression that the dissatisfied aren't actually involved at all and finding an outlet for their feelings in complaints about the ground game.
A recent poll [can't recall who] showed the electorate giving the Tory campaign the best marks for their campaign compared to other parties. The stats weren't huge, but the Tories haven't cocked this is up IMO. Some are just never satisfied and often are disgruntled Tories too who intended to vote Kipper or NOTA or Other instead.
I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,
You could have saved yourselves a lot of angst just by listening to me for the last two months.
Narrow Ed Miliband plurality. As I said. Many many times.
We haven't actually had the election yet.
About 20% of it we have, but point taken. It is possible that the polls are wrong, that there will be a late surge, and Lab will not hang on at all in Scotland, and the Tory surge takes place in key marginals, and the LDs keep enough seats and are willing to prop them up again. But that's a lot of things that have to happen on very little evidence to support it.
It's all over bar the shouting. I would not mind being proven wrong and that being quoted back at me, but I think I'm safe.
They are continuing their poll into the morning, so PB may have chance get the champagne out then - although if they do find a Tory bounce, I don't think it'll be within the realms of 6% - I'd be shocked by that kind of change in a matter of hours, but anything can happen.
Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?
Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
Yeah the Tory right have been quiet recently, and I think people are forgetting what a nightmare they'll probably be for Cameron et. al. if the election goes poorly
Unlike some in the Tory party, I don't blame everything on the Tory right. There are just as many idiots on the Tory left and in the modernising wings.
Conversely, there are very perceptive and intelligent Tories across all wings.
The first task of any new leader is to unite the Tory party and stop this silly factionalism that's been around for at least 30 years, now.
It could well be yet more Guardian hubris - this is the preliminary poll, not the final one.
Looks like some Labour/Green churn, which could turn out to be significant, though.
Worth noting that the Wisdom index poll gives the Tories a three point lead.
If the polls are right I think that following this, and Romney, and indyref, you may have to retire from predictions altogether, old boy.
I am beyond confident that I am right. I just cannot see how Labour is going to have net gains of 50 or more in England and Wales. I can see a way to 30 or so, maybe a few more with a fair wind, but nowhere near enough to be the largest party.
But if I am wrong, that's me done. I will have to accept I am clueless.
I'm with you on that. I think the Tories will win the vote share and end up about 5-10 seats in front. But Cameron can do nothing with that. Miliband can.
I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,
The ground game is about the months, even years, leading to the election. Not the last few days.
precisely.
you could tell back in 2012/2013 that Cameron just wasn't doing enough to win a majority, his continued reliance on Ed will scare the voters back is probably one of the worst pieces of political judgement is quite some time.
I intend to have an appalling hangover on Friday. Either due to a great result for me or EdM propped up by the SNP = looking forward to another election.
They are continuing their poll into the morning, so PB may have chance get the champagne out then - although if they do find a Tory bounce, I don't think it'll be within the realms of 6% - I'd be shocked by that kind of change in a matter of hours, but anything can happen.
They don't believe it's not a Tory win, many pollsters will re-do and re-do all their polls tomorrow just because they can't produce the preferred result.
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
Yeah the Tory right have been quiet recently, and I think people are forgetting what a nightmare they'll probably be for Cameron et. al. if the election goes poorly
Unlike some in the Tory party, I don't blame everything on the Tory right. There are just as many idiots on the Tory left and in the modernising wings.
Conversely, there are very perceptive and intelligent Tories across all wings.
The first task of any new leader is to unite the Tory party and stop this silly factionalism that's been around for at least 30 years, now.
Well okay, I guess I phrased it that way because it's the right who aren't in charge right now, meaning that they're the candidates for "troublemaker". But yeah, if a very right-wing leader took over, that might flip.
if the polls are all wrong, and there is a largish difference between lab and con in the actual vote, then that will make the next 5 years a bit dull, as there will be little point in conducting or analysing any polls in that time.....
Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
Yeah the Tory right have been quiet recently, and I think people are forgetting what a nightmare they'll probably be for Cameron et. al. if the election goes poorly
The first task of any new leader is to unite the Tory party and stop this silly factionalism that's been around for at least 30 years, now.
It could well be yet more Guardian hubris - this is the preliminary poll, not the final one.
Looks like some Labour/Green churn, which could turn out to be significant, though.
Worth noting that the Wisdom index poll gives the Tories a three point lead.
If the polls are right I think that following this, and Romney, and indyref, you may have to retire from predictions altogether, old boy.
I am beyond confident that I am right.
Do you *ever* learn?!
There's no point in coming on here and not making predictions, is there? As I commented the other day, I have made a few decent ones as well. But, understandably, my vociferous failures stick in the minds of my sterner critics :-D
If I get this one wrong, I reckon I'll be sticking to snarky comments and nothing else for ever after. But I won't, so I won't.
@keiranpedley: "Claiming polls wrong smacks of Romney supporter desperation"
I am one of those who believes the Tories will defy the polls, but after watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFAJCzuSW3g I am starting to wonder if I am burying my head in the sand!
If ICM proves accurate, Bob Sykes and me will be, once again, probably the only rightwingers on pb to have called the election right. We did the same in 2010.
Yup. They can't say we didn't try to tell them.
Again...
All that said, I did expect to see the Tories consistently ahead in most polls by the start of May. That we didn't even get to that (which I think would still have made it touch and go as to who was largest), shows how dismal the Tory campaign has been, and how it abandoned or simply forgot its strongest cards - 1, the economy; 2, "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed".
Thanks to that, we're all going to wake up with Ed, and have him making our lives miserable and wallets lighter for at least the next 5 years.
And the hopeless fecker didn't even want to be leader of his party, he only stood so his brother would have to put him in his Shadow Cabinet!
I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,
The ground game is about the months, even years, leading to the election. Not the last few days.
precisely.
you could tell back in 2012/2013 that Cameron just wasn't doing enough to win a majority, his continued reliance on Ed will scare the voters back is probably one of the worst pieces of political judgement is quite some time.
I don't agree with this level of ruthlessness but I'm sure Cameron knows he won't make it to the men's room if he loses.
They don't believe it's not a Tory win, many pollsters will re-do and re-do all their polls tomorrow just because they can't produce the preferred result.
Pretty much this. Shockwaves probably came in when it was a tie, and not a Con lead of xyz percent.
blakmorerj Romney was behind on the poll average, Cameron is ahead and also has a UKIP vote to squeeze as Netanyahu had a rightwing 3rd party vote to squeeze but not Mitt
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
At 10.01pm tomorrow night the conservatives will start going apeshit. The level of apeshit will, IMO, be as follows;
330+ seats 1% apeshit. 315-330 seats 5% apeshit. 306-315 seats 2.5% apeshit. 280-306 seats 50% apeshit. Under 280, but still most seats 66% apeshit. Under 280 and labour most seats 110% apeshit. Labour plurality +25 seats- "it woz fixed" 1100% apeshit. Labour Majority - Tea party style "government not legitimate" off-the-scale-apeshit.
Also going to make the call on whether phone or internet has done best more complicated. Very large convergence.
OTOH it's a bad poll for the Nats (in Westminster terms). Their ideal result was a Tory maj, or a Tory led Coalition, able to completely ignore all the new SNP MPs. Then Sturgeon could have said the London government was illegitimate, we want a referendum by tea-time, etc
With Miliband highly likely to edge it in seats, Miliband will be forming a government that relies in part on Nat support. So the Nats won't be able to whinge that Scotland has no say in London.
I suppose the risk is that Miliband does so well he can form a Coalition with just the LDs and SDLP, but he'll need 300+ seats for that? Not likely.
If you are so sure Lab will 'edge it' in seats, may you please take the offer of a 500% ROI in about 36 hours?
I have a massive position on Lab most seats and would like the odds to change!
Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?
SeanT The Smith plans will be legislated for by both parties and Sturgeon has made clear there will only be referendum 2 if circumstances change ie Brexit
@keiranpedley: "Claiming polls wrong smacks of Romney supporter desperation"
I am one of those who believes the Tories will defy the polls, but after watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFAJCzuSW3g I am starting to wonder if I am burying my head in the sand!
I doubt a Lab minority would ever happen because: 1) Whatever Ed says, if Lab+SNP is a majority they'll do it; and SNP on, say, 50 means Lab have to get only 275. If they fail to get that, they've probably failed to beat the Tories. 2) Could a Lib Minority push out a Tory minority? I doubt it. Plus if they're only on 275, the Tories could easily be on 290 and the LDs on 35.
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
At 10.01pm tomorrow night the conservatives will start going apeshit. The level of apeshit will, IMO, be as follows;
330+ seats 1% apeshit. 315-330 seats 5% apeshit. 306-315 seats 2.5% apeshit. 280-306 seats 50% apeshit. Under 280, but still most seats 66% apeshit. Under 280 and labour most seats 110% apeshit.
Also going to make the call on whether phone or internet has done best more complicated. Very large convergence.
OTOH it's a bad poll for the Nats (in Westminster terms). Their ideal result was a Tory maj, or a Tory led Coalition, able to completely ignore all the new SNP MPs. Then Sturgeon could have said the London government was illegitimate, we want a referendum by tea-time, etc
With Miliband highly likely to edge it in seats, Miliband will be forming a government that relies in part on Nat support. So the Nats won't be able to whinge that Scotland has no say in London.
I suppose the risk is that Miliband does so well he can form a Coalition with just the LDs and SDLP, but he'll need 300+ seats for that? Not likely.
Labour need to be 3% ahead for a coalition with the LD.
In total here are the goalposts:
LAB MAJ: LAB+5% LAB-LD: LAB +3% CON-LD: CON +5% CON MAJ: CON +10%
I expect a coalition of at least 3 parties will be needed, but right now Labour seem a tad closer to their LD coalition than the Tories.
Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?
If it is a Lab plurality, will people be retroactively pardoned for 'overreacting to single polls' over the past 5 months (which was in fact them showing no trend toward the Tories as needed)?
If it is not that, I still think a pardon is in order, as the trend then backed up those overreactions, and we cannot help if that trend was wrong, surely?
S.O. You intrigue me.Your heart is in the right place,but you let posters here on PB influence your judgement. I have met Ed,he is not crap,and the polls have increasingly shown that when he has more exposure,the public,which has been conditioned by a press that hates him for his stance on Levenson,is open to a change of opinion.
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.
At 10.01pm tomorrow night the conservatives will start going apeshit. The level of apeshit will, IMO, be as follows;
330+ seats 1% apeshit. 315-330 seats 5% apeshit. 306-315 seats 2.5% apeshit. 280-306 seats 50% apeshit. Under 280, but still most seats 66% apeshit. Under 280 and labour most seats 110% apeshit.
Why does the 306-315 band soothe the Tories so much?
Comments
Only question now is whether Ed can get into No.10 with the LDs or will need the SNP too, and so whether he goes minority in any case. I think I predicted 290ish yesterday. I'm saying 290-300 today.
Bye, bye Dave. Nice to have met you.
I maintain my early morning forecast. Labour largest party by 20 seats. London figures in the Standard are fantabulous !
EICIPM is real. EICIPM is likely. Bet accordingly, and try and move swiftly through the denial and anger phases with the help of a bottle of fine wine and a tub of Ben and Jerry's.
Voters aren't obsessed by polls like we are and will pick up 'mood music' from the unrepresentative Tory press.
Looks like some Labour/Green churn, which could turn out to be significant, though.
Worth noting that the Wisdom index poll gives the Tories a three point lead.
Wings Over Scotland
@WingsScotland Many of you got it - it's UKIP on 36%, with Labour next on 25%, then the SNP on 14% and the Tories trailing in with 9%. Honestly surprised.
(The significance is that Jim Murphy has been targeting th Glasgow Man demographic. Now to wait and see for Celtic.)
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
Large LD-Lab switcher number as suspected.
In the field since Bank Holiday Sunday.
Sure I'll fall asleep just when I didn't plan too and wake up at 8am!
What on earth is going on.
YouGov's methology changed at data point number 72 and took 5 days to fully impact upon the moving average.
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/flyering-into-trouble-these-are-the-best-ge-leaflet-fails
Also going to make the call on whether phone or internet has done best more complicated. Very large convergence.
But if I am wrong, that's me done. I will have to accept I am clueless.
Good question. 9 rogue polls in a row.
If Chestnut's around i'm sure he can explain it
A recent poll [can't recall who] showed the electorate giving the Tory campaign the best marks for their campaign compared to other parties. The stats weren't huge, but the Tories haven't cocked this is up IMO. Some are just never satisfied and often are disgruntled Tories too who intended to vote Kipper or NOTA or Other instead.
It's all over bar the shouting. I would not mind being proven wrong and that being quoted back at me, but I think I'm safe.
Whilst a bad poll for the blues, consider that some of us did not get excited by the six point lead. The average lead remains steady at 3 points.
And there's one more ICM to go.
No point being giddy or despairing, especially when the vote's tomorrow and the result's the day after that.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/04/29/will-labour-get-its-bank-holiday-poll-bounce/
Conversely, there are very perceptive and intelligent Tories across all wings.
The first task of any new leader is to unite the Tory party and stop this silly factionalism that's been around for at least 30 years, now.
you could tell back in 2012/2013 that Cameron just wasn't doing enough to win a majority, his continued reliance on Ed will scare the voters back is probably one of the worst pieces of political judgement is quite some time.
Can't lose really.
If I get this one wrong, I reckon I'll be sticking to snarky comments and nothing else for ever after. But I won't, so I won't.
I am one of those who believes the Tories will defy the polls, but after watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFAJCzuSW3g I am starting to wonder if I am burying my head in the sand!
Again...
All that said, I did expect to see the Tories consistently ahead in most polls by the start of May. That we didn't even get to that (which I think would still have made it touch and go as to who was largest), shows how dismal the Tory campaign has been, and how it abandoned or simply forgot its strongest cards - 1, the economy; 2, "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed".
Thanks to that, we're all going to wake up with Ed, and have him making our lives miserable and wallets lighter for at least the next 5 years.
And the hopeless fecker didn't even want to be leader of his party, he only stood so his brother would have to put him in his Shadow Cabinet!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595771486457167872
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595771155123953664
He'll quit within hours if all is lost.
330+ seats 1% apeshit.
315-330 seats 5% apeshit.
306-315 seats 2.5% apeshit.
280-306 seats 50% apeshit.
Under 280, but still most seats 66% apeshit.
Under 280 and labour most seats 110% apeshit.
Labour plurality +25 seats- "it woz fixed" 1100% apeshit.
Labour Majority - Tea party style "government not legitimate" off-the-scale-apeshit.
I have a massive position on Lab most seats and would like the odds to change!
I'm keeping calm.
1) Whatever Ed says, if Lab+SNP is a majority they'll do it; and SNP on, say, 50 means Lab have to get only 275. If they fail to get that, they've probably failed to beat the Tories.
2) Could a Lib Minority push out a Tory minority? I doubt it. Plus if they're only on 275, the Tories could easily be on 290 and the LDs on 35.
In total here are the goalposts:
LAB MAJ: LAB+5%
LAB-LD: LAB +3%
CON-LD: CON +5%
CON MAJ: CON +10%
I expect a coalition of at least 3 parties will be needed, but right now Labour seem a tad closer to their LD coalition than the Tories.
If it is not that, I still think a pardon is in order, as the trend then backed up those overreactions, and we cannot help if that trend was wrong, surely?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB7NAL2fzOc
I have met Ed,he is not crap,and the polls have increasingly shown that when he has more exposure,the public,which has been conditioned by a press that hates him for his stance on Levenson,is open to a change of opinion.
The presentation will be made by President Mitt Romney in newly independent Scotland
what is margin of error in the vote shares?
what is the margin of error in the residuals?
The inherent uncertainty is bigger than the thing being measured!