politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview
Options
Comments
-
Dartford (Lab Gain)
Labour 536
Conservative 376
UKIP 268
Plymouth
Lab 1247
UKIP 765
Con 486
Ind 290
LD 82
TUSC 22
Rutland
Con 330
Ind 260
UKIP 130
Ind 24
Wyre Forest
Health Concern 1055
Ukip 892
Con 735
Lab 607
Green 77
Mason 39
LD 30
Billericay East
Con 790
UKIP 464
Lab 170
LD 128
NF 3
0 -
Southway, Plymouth
Lab 1247, UKIP 764, Con 487, Ind 290, LD 82. Lab gain from Con.0 -
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.0 -
Rod - I got a broadway B1 piano, which is good and in your range. Helpful reviews on this site ukpianos.co.uk0
-
direction of travelMarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.0 -
Wyre Forest
Health Concern 1055
Ukip 892
Con 735
Lab 607
waiting for other candidates figures...
Well UKIP failed to hold this seat but considereing the hostile press the former UKIP councillor received thats not surprising. What is good though is that UKIP still came a strong second to a well known local figure.0 -
MarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.
That may be Mark, but it's the TREND that counts.
0 -
I should correct myself. Earlier I said that one of the 2 South Tyneside wards was in South Shields. It's not true. They are both in Jarrow.0
-
Bilsthorpe & Farnsfield Ward, Newark & Sherwood
Con 1174
Lab 682
Everything counted and reported. All very fast tonight. Well done, councils (and activists and local papers on twitter)0 -
The TREND tonight is UKIP losing both seats where they had councillors .MikeK said:MarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.
That may be Mark, but it's the TREND that counts.
0 -
And thanks for your sterling work AndreaParma_82.0
-
Dartford percentages
Lab 45
Con 32
UKIP 230 -
From the Times - Ashcroft Boris polling
More than a third of UKIP voters would be more likely to support the Conservatives if Boris Johnson was the party’s leader, new polling has revealed.
A majority of UKIP’s voters also said the Tories would be more likely to win a general election with the London mayor as leader in a sign that he may be one of the only figures who could arrest the rise of Nigel Farage’s party.
....
However, the polling also confirmed that many fear he is not Prime Ministerial material. Only 29 per cent said Mr Johnson would be the best Prime Minister, behind David Cameron (33 per cent) and Ed Miliband (31 per cent), but ahead of Nick Clegg (7 per cent).
.....UKIP voters were the only group more likely to name Mr Johnson as the best Prime Minister, rather than a current party leader. Conservative supporters preferred Mr Cameron over the London mayor as the best Prime Minister by 81 per cent to 18 per cent.
0 -
It's a pleasure!0
-
Plymouth percentages:
Lab 43
UKIP 26
Con 17
Ind 10
LD 3
TUSC 10 -
The woman speaking for Labour on Question Time reminds me of a younger and slightly less mad version of Liz Jones.0
-
A majority of voters (53 per cent) said Mr Johnson was “different from most other politicians, and in a good way”.0
-
Rutland percentages:
Con 44
Ind 35
UKIP 17
Ind 30 -
Tonights polling trend shows that the dice are still rolling for UKIPs benefit. Perhaps not sixes yet, but fours and fives a plenty.
0 -
Lord Ashcroft - non pay wall :
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/06/are-you-serious-boris-the-tories-and-the-voters/
There is no doubt that Boris is a great asset to his party, and I think his time as Mayor has shown that he is up to the demands of executive office. But ultimately, were it to come to pass, the fact of having Boris as leader would not make the things that stop people voting Tory go away, and it would be a gamble to assume he would trump them. The question “are you serious?” would not just be one the voters asked of Boris: it would demand an answer of a party that thought an entertaining new leader would be enough by itself to win them over.0 -
Wyre Forest percentages
Health Concern 31
UKIP 26
Con 21
Lab 18
Green 2
Ind 1
LD 1
0 -
Billericay percentages:
Con 51
UKIP 30
Lab 11
LD 8
NF 0.10 -
She's another LIz: Liz KendalGIN1138 said:The woman speaking for Labour on Question Time reminds me of a younger and slightly less mad version of Liz Jones.
0 -
Newark percentages:
Con 63
Lab 370 -
I agree that they are still picking up the protest/racist votes . In Primrose ward their vote numerically was almost exactly the same as the BNP got in a previous by election in the ward in 2010 . In Dartford their vote numerically was almost exactly the same as the Eng Dems got in 2011 . In Basildon and Plymouth their vote numerically was almost unchanged from what they previously got in these wards .MikeK said:Tonights polling trend shows that the dice are still rolling for UKIPs benefit. Perhaps not sixes yet, but fours and fives a plenty.
.0 -
The polls show a marked decline. The votes shows a more or less steady 20-25%. That's a local by-election percentage so the number isn't relevant but there's no sign of a *marked* decline.MarkSenior said:
The TREND tonight is UKIP losing both seats where they had councillors .MikeK said:MarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.
That may be Mark, but it's the TREND that counts.0 -
The leftists are better organised...? for instance, Peter Tatchell's article includes, it seems, every time he blew his nose or farted, and is longer than Foot's, Kinnock's and Miliband's. I once tried some mild, objective pruning only to be reverted within minutes on the spurious grounds that the changes had not been "agreed."SeanT said:
Or take the rewriting of history. US case law, relating to Obama's eligibility as POTUS has been twisted and subverted on Wikipedia. It is clear there are "gatekeepers" assigned to "protect" sensitive articles, in flagrant contravention of Wikipedia policy, and to bend them to fit current leftist orthodoxy.0 -
Looks like UKIP is a busted flush and Tory switchers are learning their lesson the hard way.
Coming second and letting Labour in is not a platform for future gains.
0 -
Polls are measuring GE VI . They are not measuring willingness to protest vote in council by elections . Clearly willingness to turnout of angry UKIP voters is higher in the latter than that of other parties .MrJones said:
The polls show a marked decline. The votes shows a more or less steady 20-25%. That's a local by-election percentage so the number isn't relevant but there's no sign of a *marked* decline.MarkSenior said:
The TREND tonight is UKIP losing both seats where they had councillors .MikeK said:MarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.
That may be Mark, but it's the TREND that counts.0 -
Not collapsing then, and this at the start of the silly season and the summer hols. Phew! you had me worried there.MarkSenior said:
I agree that they are still picking up the protest/racist votes . In Primrose ward their vote numerically was almost exactly the same as the BNP got in a previous by election in the ward in 2010 . In Dartford their vote numerically was almost exactly the same as the Eng Dems got in 2011 . In Basildon and Plymouth their vote numerically was almost unchanged from what they previously got in these wards .MikeK said:Tonights polling trend shows that the dice are still rolling for UKIPs benefit. Perhaps not sixes yet, but fours and fives a plenty.
.
0 -
Good night!!!0
-
I would hate to think of you anthropomorphing into Pork, Neil.Neil said:AveryLP said:Looks like UKIP is a busted flush
I'll remind you of this quote the day after the 2014 set of elections, Avery.
My predictions should be treated with the same respect as Roger's.
But the point about coming second and splitting the right vote being a lesson to voters is valid.
0 -
What can I have ever done to you to deserve that, Avery?!0
-
You are being rather optimistic that accepting defecting councillors such as a slum landlord convicted and fined £ 45,000 with £ 22,000 costs for putting his tenants' lives at risk will lead to increased support for UKIP .MikeK said:
Not collapsing then, and this at the start of the silly season and the summer hols. Phew! you had me worried there.MarkSenior said:
I agree that they are still picking up the protest/racist votes . In Primrose ward their vote numerically was almost exactly the same as the BNP got in a previous by election in the ward in 2010 . In Dartford their vote numerically was almost exactly the same as the Eng Dems got in 2011 . In Basildon and Plymouth their vote numerically was almost unchanged from what they previously got in these wards .MikeK said:Tonights polling trend shows that the dice are still rolling for UKIPs benefit. Perhaps not sixes yet, but fours and fives a plenty.
.
0 -
I don't really talk about green issues either Seth so your confusion is understandable.AveryLP said:
0 -
So you're saying there's been a divergence - willingness to vote in the general and therefore polling has headed downward while local protest voting has remained steady. Possible i guess.MarkSenior said:
Polls are measuring GE VI . They are not measuring willingness to protest vote in council by elections . Clearly willingness to turnout of angry UKIP voters is higher in the latter than that of other parties .MrJones said:
The polls show a marked decline. The votes shows a more or less steady 20-25%. That's a local by-election percentage so the number isn't relevant but there's no sign of a *marked* decline.MarkSenior said:
The TREND tonight is UKIP losing both seats where they had councillors .MikeK said:MarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.
That may be Mark, but it's the TREND that counts.
0 -
Hey thanks. Doesn't look a bad piano, but only has 64 polyphony instead of the 128 found on the new Yamahas and Casios, and not as many bells and whistles. Plus I was really wanting the option of a portable keyboard, which the B1 isn't.TomFairfax said:Rod - I got a broadway B1 piano, which is good and in your range. Helpful reviews on this site ukpianos.co.uk
The Casio sounds nice?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEV9LeW_RRQ0 -
It is not a proven fact but a possible explanation . I would draw your attention to the previous by election in Primrose ward in Feb 2010 3 months before the May GE and the BNP vote which was almost identical numerically to UKIP in yesterday's by election . That vote was not registering in the GE VI polls at the time and nor did it manifest itself in a GE 3 months later .MrJones said:
So you're saying there's been a divergence - willingness to vote in the general and therefore polling has headed downward while local protest voting has remained steady. Possible i guess.MarkSenior said:
Polls are measuring GE VI . They are not measuring willingness to protest vote in council by elections . Clearly willingness to turnout of angry UKIP voters is higher in the latter than that of other parties .MrJones said:
The polls show a marked decline. The votes shows a more or less steady 20-25%. That's a local by-election percentage so the number isn't relevant but there's no sign of a *marked* decline.MarkSenior said:
The TREND tonight is UKIP losing both seats where they had councillors .MikeK said:MarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.
That may be Mark, but it's the TREND that counts.
0 -
Yet more confusion Seth? Disappointing. Your ability to grasp the obvious is sadly hampered by your refusal to accept unpleasant truths. Sometimes there are facts that you can't just spin away. 87 of them is indeed the correct amount.AveryLP said:
0 -
If you are serious look at the Korg range.RodCrosby said:
Hey thanks. Doesn't look a bad piano, but only has 64 polyphony instead of the 128 found on the new Yamahas and Casios, and not as many bells and whistles. Plus I was really wanting the option of a portable keyboard, which the B1 isn't.TomFairfax said:Rod - I got a broadway B1 piano, which is good and in your range. Helpful reviews on this site ukpianos.co.uk
The Casio sounds nice?
You will need to spend dollars on samples though.
The result can be impressive:
http://www.npr.org/event/music/140504948/jenny-lin-tiny-desk-concert
0 -
Well at least we have one known fact which is UKIP have been getting a steady 20-25% in local by-elections.MarkSenior said:
It is not a proven fact but a possible explanation . I would draw your attention to the previous by election in Primrose ward in Feb 2010 3 months before the May GE and the BNP vote which was almost identical numerically to UKIP in yesterday's by election . That vote was not registering in the GE VI polls at the time and nor did it manifest itself in a GE 3 months later .MrJones said:
So you're saying there's been a divergence - willingness to vote in the general and therefore polling has headed downward while local protest voting has remained steady. Possible i guess.MarkSenior said:
Polls are measuring GE VI . They are not measuring willingness to protest vote in council by elections . Clearly willingness to turnout of angry UKIP voters is higher in the latter than that of other parties .MrJones said:
The polls show a marked decline. The votes shows a more or less steady 20-25%. That's a local by-election percentage so the number isn't relevant but there's no sign of a *marked* decline.MarkSenior said:
The TREND tonight is UKIP losing both seats where they had councillors .MikeK said:MarkSenior said:
The Yougov polls are for a GE with 60% turnout , the council by elections have a turnout of 20 to 30 % .MikeK said:UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.
That may be Mark, but it's the TREND that counts.
0 -
Thanks. It's all in the ear of the beholder. I didn't really go for that. Sounds more like a harpsichord. Very little sustain in the notes.AveryLP said:
If you are serious look at the Korg range.RodCrosby said:
Hey thanks. Doesn't look a bad piano, but only has 64 polyphony instead of the 128 found on the new Yamahas and Casios, and not as many bells and whistles. Plus I was really wanting the option of a portable keyboard, which the B1 isn't.TomFairfax said:Rod - I got a broadway B1 piano, which is good and in your range. Helpful reviews on this site ukpianos.co.uk
The Casio sounds nice?
You will need to spend dollars on samples though.
The result can be impressive:
http://www.npr.org/event/music/140504948/jenny-lin-tiny-desk-concert0 -
It all depends on the synth and samples though.RodCrosby said:
Thanks. It's all in the ear of the beholder. I didn't really go for that. Sounds more like a harpsichord. Very little sustain in the notes.AveryLP said:
If you are serious look at the Korg range.RodCrosby said:
Hey thanks. Doesn't look a bad piano, but only has 64 polyphony instead of the 128 found on the new Yamahas and Casios, and not as many bells and whistles. Plus I was really wanting the option of a portable keyboard, which the B1 isn't.TomFairfax said:Rod - I got a broadway B1 piano, which is good and in your range. Helpful reviews on this site ukpianos.co.uk
The Casio sounds nice?
You will need to spend dollars on samples though [and playing style and pedalling].
The result can be impressive:
http://www.npr.org/event/music/140504948/jenny-lin-tiny-desk-concert
Here is a youtube with 'German Grand' [Steinway] samples loaded:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFrzlzlQcdo
And Scarborough Fair with 'Japanese Grand' [Yamaha] samples:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byLb5CsZMcc
0 -
Very nice, but is it in my price range, and how much faffing around/extra cost is there for the samples?AveryLP said:
It all depends on the synth and samples though.
Here is a youtube with 'German' [Steinway Grand] samples loaded:
And Scarborough Fair with 'Japanese' [Yamaha] samples:
I think I'd be happier with a slightly inferior/cheaper sound that was straight out of the box...0 -
I'd guess the way the recording is made for youtube makes a difference too? the only sure way is going to be to try them yourself, I suppose.RodCrosby said:
Very nice, but is it in my price range, and how much faffing around/extra cost is there for the samples?
I think I'd be happier with a slightly inferior/cheaper sound that was straight out of the box...
I have an old yamaha grand (made of wire and wood)- doesn't sound much like that video though. admittedly I'm not generally playing simon and garfunkel on it0 -
Talking of piano... it's 80 years this year since this was recorded.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BTw6epdq7g
I think I'll buy a tambourine, instead...0 -
From £250 to £3000 is the range, with the Kronos model (as in the youtube vids) towards the top end.RodCrosby said:
Very nice, but is it in my price range, and how much faffing around/extra cost is there for the samples?AveryLP said:
It all depends on the synth and samples though.
Here is a youtube with 'German' [Steinway Grand] samples loaded:
And Scarborough Fair with 'Japanese' [Yamaha] samples:
I think I'd be happier with a slightly inferior/cheaper sound that was straight out of the box...
The 'German Grand' and 'Japanese Grand' samples come preloaded (they are clones of separately available Steinway and Yamaha sample sets).
It is best to keep the synth and sample stuff (the software) separate and run it on a reasonably powerful and high capacity pc linked to the keyboard.
The quality of the keyboard is in the play of its keys and the degree to which the feel matches the real thing. You can only judge that by trying various models and price points out in a showroom.
If you don't want to separate pc and keyboard then you are buying the processing integrated. It will be less flexible and you won't get the highest quality sound but most will be more than happy with simplicity and 95% of the sound potential.
0 -
new thread0
This discussion has been closed.