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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

In the annals of electoral history, nowhere screams louder than Basildon. 1992’s Conservative HOLD of the Basildon constituency was the clearest sign that the Conservatives had won the general election and ever since it has held an almost mythical reverence in Conservative party circles.

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan

This is a local election for local people! There's nothing for you here!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p006vm6j

AndreaParma_82

The Primrose vacancy is due to our Emma Double Surname resigning after becoming an MP

TGOHF

Stourport is a cracker - 4 parties between 21-27%

SouthamObserver

Evening all. I am next to London Bridge watching the dirty old river rolling into the night, thinking this is the greatest city in the world. A slow raining is falling, taxi lights shining so bright. Bona nit a tots xxxx

TGOHF

O/T but amusing summary of how the German newspapers have reacted to the Irish banking tapes

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ruthdudleyedwards/100223732/the-germans-have-fallen-out-of-love-with-the-irish/

"Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has fallen out of love with the Irish.

Former executives of the Anglo-Irish Bank should, it suggests, be piled into a big sack along with all shareholders, creditors, members of the last Irish government and relevant members of the Irish Central Bank and Irish and European regulatory authorities.

“Then one hits the sack with a club until the screams of pain are unbearable,” it recommended."

Mick_Pork

Daily Mirror ‏@DailyMirror 58m

Nick Clegg reveals he does not “knowingly” feed his kids GM food http://mirr.im/122Wt1s

Oh dear.

Is Cammie going to have to feed Osbrowne a GM beefburger in front of the cameras in a Gummer like PR stunt? Perhaps a GM pasty would be more to the incompetent fops liking?
Maybe chicken then?

Tim_B

Anthony Weiner (remember him?) is currently leading in the polls for the next mayor of NYC. Get your puns ready. "Weiner thrusts ahead" was the headline in a NYC paper today. "Weiner on a roll" said another.

His wife is holding a 'Women for Anthony' function this evening with, yes, cocktails.

Mick_Pork

Is little Danny trying to be the most unpopular lib dem ever? (apart from Calamity Clegg obviously)

Being Osbrowne's nodding dog for the CSR, privatising student loans, what else could anger the lib dem grass roots?

Nuclear News ‏@nuclearnewsbot

Danny Alexander announces £10bn of guarantees for nuclear power station - The… http://goo.gl/fb/g9uMK #nuclear

That should do it.

Andy_JS

Relevant local election results from May this year:

Essex:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDIySUJiWThFM3gxcWEyNll4Rkx0Mnc

Kent:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEdfWWk3NnlpeHpmbHZxcVlnSzZwMlE#gid=0

Nottinghamshire:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc#gid=0

Worcestershire:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFhxazVGMnpSNHk2VDRTNTFZb1lLWEE#gid=0

RichardB

I think that there must be a good chance Labour will win the Newtown ward by-election in Dartford. As it happens, I was once a Labour councillor for that very ward and the Labour candidate was one of my colleagues, on the council for 20 years until he lost in 2011.

He's a good guy and will put the work in so unless the Tories are very organised and still extremely strong in central Dartford, he and Labour really should win.

The ward is on the east side of the town, about 15 mins walk from the town centre. A Tory hold would be very good news for them.

I now live in Plymouth and send a long distance "good luck" to Dave Baker.

Southway in Plymouth should be a Labour gain too though a former Tory Councillor for the ward is standing as the UKIP candidate so that might lead to an interesting upset.

Labour is working very hard in Southway and has a good candidate (OK, I am biased) so that really should do the job.

Quincel

Having now seen the same photo for this thread for several weeks (not a complaint, I quite like it) my curiosity has gotten the better of me. Does anyone know where the photo is from? Which election, where and when?

CarlottaVance

tim said:

@MickPork

What are the chances that those Tories who attacked Blair for refusing to talk about his sons MMR will defend Daves decision not to talk about whether he feeds his children GM food?

The one thing I really like about Farage is that he tells anyone asking about his kids to f off.

"But the biggest public health disaster of all – which everyone misses – was a sweet little baby called Leo. In December 2001 the Blairs were asked if their infant son had been given the MMR vaccine, and refused to answer, on the grounds that this would invade their child’s right to privacy. This stance was not entirely unreasonable, but its validity was somewhat undermined by Cherie Blair when she chose to reveal Leo’s vaccination history, in the process of promoting her autobiography, and also described the specific act of sexual intercourse which conceived him.

And while most other politicians were happy to clarify whether their children had had the vaccine, you could see how people might believe the Blairs were the kind of family not to have their children immunised: essentially, they had surrounded themselves with health cranks. There was Cherie Blair’s closest friend and aide, Carole Caplin, a new age guru and “life coach”. Cherie was reported to visit Carole’s mum, Sylvia Caplin, a spiritual guru who was viciously anti-MMR (“for a tiny child, the MMR is a ridiculous thing to do. It has definitely caused autism,” she told the Mail)."

http://www.badscience.net/2008/08/the-medias-mmr-hoax/

Mick_Pork

@Tim

The chances are they'll ignore it like so much of their hypocrisy.

But a political leader is not some helpless bystander when it comes to decisions about his family. Farage is not the only one who drew the line and it's an option open to every politician to cut the media off at the knees and make it clear they are not part of the package.

Where the problems begin is if you mean it then no PR shoots, no leaflets with happy families, no 'speaking as a parent' or they'll have you in a second. It means complete media blackout and it doesn't guarantee no intrusion with a press that often doesn't give a monkeys. If you make it a two way street then one day they'll be waiting at the bottom of your street with a telephoto lens and it will be your family they are after not you.

Brown got it by and large right to be fair (not always but mostly) hence the surprise when his children appeared as he left Downing Street.

Charles

@Mick_Pork FPT

We've avoided professional involvement with the royals since the days of Queen Anne. Difficult to enforce repayment, you see ;-)

CarlottaVance

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Irrelevant. Clegg just made it about possible health concerns.

"Why don't you knowingly feed your family GM Mr Clegg, don't you think it is safe?"

CarlottaVance

Mick_Pork said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Irrelevant

Deaths are irrelevant?

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Irrelevant

Deaths are irrelevant?

Your specious distinction for blatantly partisan reasons is irrelevant. Health concerns matter and Clegg just raised the bar. Now it gets flung over to the scientists who have to sort the mess out, just like on MMR.

TGOHF

The big issues continue to dominate the minds of the left (MODERATED) Clegg's kids packed lunch.

CarlottaVance

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Oh right so you just define the subject so Blair is wrong in refusing to talk about his kids and Cameron is right.

So you don't see any difference whatsoever between a health crisis leading to deaths and cheaper food in supermarkets?

And the comments on the Blairs were Ben Goldacre's - who I thought you would have had time for - not mine.

foxinsoxuk

Kippers may want to watch Ketton in Rutland.

Just a week or so ago three councillors there moved to UKIP from being independent:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-22995205

Ketton is an interesting village, Rutland being one of the wealthiest postcodes in the country, I think the wealthiest outside the South East. Ketton though is best known for its cement factory, so it is an island of industry in a bucollic little county.

http://www.heidelbergcement.com/uk/en/hanson/products/cements/works_and_depots/kettonworks_.htm

Rutland has also been quite heavily hit by defence cuts.

If UKIP cannot make progress here...

Mick_Pork

MODERATED
Even more classy than Scott_P.

You just can't help yourselves can you?

CarlottaVance

Mick_Pork said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Irrelevant

Deaths are irrelevant?

Your specious distinction for blatantly partisan reasons

How many people have died from eating GM crops and how many from failure to vaccinate with MMR?

Who is the one with blatantly partisan specious reasons?

CarlottaVance

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Oh right so you just define the subject so Blair is wrong in refusing to talk about his kids and Cameron is right.

So you don't see any difference whatsoever between a health crisis leading to deaths and cheaper food in supermarkets?

And the comments on the Blairs were Ben Goldacre's - who I thought you would have had time for - not mine.

Pointless you making any arguments if that's your level of ignorance.

How many deaths from eating GM food?

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Oh right so you just define the subject so Blair is wrong in refusing to talk about his kids and Cameron is right.

So you don't see any difference whatsoever between a health crisis leading to deaths and cheaper food in supermarkets?

And the comments on the Blairs were Ben Goldacre's - who I thought you would have had time for - not mine.

I read Goldacre's excellent account long ago and you might point the hapless Jeremy Hunt to his superb articles on homeopathy.

Drawing the line right now over GM safety just as Clegg has blurred it misses the point entirely. He will cause health concerns and the reason we get food/health 'scares' is that these things take off and feed on each other. Some have no merit but some do and the distinction gets lost amid hysteria. That means all health concerns/scares matter. Not just the ones you want to talk about for partisan reasons.

CarlottaVance

Mick_Pork said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Oh right so you just define the subject so Blair is wrong in refusing to talk about his kids and Cameron is right.

So you don't see any difference whatsoever between a health crisis leading to deaths and cheaper food in supermarkets?

And the comments on the Blairs were Ben Goldacre's - who I thought you would have had time for - not mine.

That means all health concerns/scares matter. Not just the ones you want to talk about for partisan reasons.

Yes - and the ones leading to deaths more than most. MMR was particularly pernicious because the decline in herd immunity not only threatened the children of the parents who fell for the poor reporting - but also children who could not be vaccinated. If Clegg's children do or do not eat GM foods it does not have an impact on the health of other parents children - and that's a scientific - not partisan - difference.

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

@Carlotta

So you are arguing Cameron must tell us if he feeds his kids GM food?

which of GM and MMR is a health crisis leading to deaths?

Oh right so you just define the subject so Blair is wrong in refusing to talk about his kids and Cameron is right.

So you don't see any difference whatsoever between a health crisis leading to deaths and cheaper food in supermarkets?

And the comments on the Blairs were Ben Goldacre's - who I thought you would have had time for - not mine.

That means all health concerns/scares matter. Not just the ones you want to talk about for partisan reasons.

Yes - and the ones leading to deaths more than most.

Which was a quantitative scientific judgement made long, long after the scare began. The full scale of the damage the MMR scare would do was an unknown when it broke which is the point.

CarlottaVance said:

If Clegg's children do or do not eat GM foods it does not have an impact on the health of other parents children - and that's a scientific - not partisan - difference.

He is an opinion former and his actions could easily lead to other parents boycotting GM as well as the newspapers (who are notorious for running with these things) and media getting caught up in it. Would boycotting GM have any adverse affects? Almost certainly not but we simply don't know where a scare story goes or what effect it could have at the outset.

A health scare over GM will linger in the public mind and do damage just by feeding distrust as MMR so clearly did. That cannot be dismissed.

That the MMR scare has now been proved to have such a pernicious and deadly effect does not excuse a willful partisan blindness over a possible GM scare just because Cammie could be involved in the political ramifications. Your motivation is crystal clear. As always.

Roger

I would have thought the idea that PM's should be obligated to use their own children to argue a case is so ridiculous that it shouldn't even warrant a discussion.

There are no circumstances when they should even have the right to do it let alone the obligation.

Sunil_Prasannan

Spain beat Italy 7-6 on penalties in Confederations cup semi-final. Will play Brazil in the final.

AndreaParma_82

Rhun ap Iorwerth selected by Plaid for Ynys Mon. He presents Newyddion9 programme on S4C channel.

CarlottaVance

Mick_Pork said:

Your motivation is crystal clear

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

Your motivation is crystal clear

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

That you didn't understand was clear from the outset but thanks for confirming it yet again.

TGOHF

Paul Mason says falling support for paying more in benefits is "frightening"

Not to me Paul.

Neil

CarlottaVance said:

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

Your criticism of a politician for failing to offer up his family's health records to the media is odious.

CarlottaVance

SeanT said:

Roger said:

I would have thought the idea that PM's should be obligated to use their own children to argue a case is so ridiculous that it shouldn't even warrant a discussion.

There are no circumstances when they should even have the right to do it let alone the obligation.

You still haven't told us why you, a TV man from the 70s and 80s, are so weirdly keen to disbelieve victims of rape and grooming from that time, and to exonerate the rapists, such that you called the abused boy victim of Savile, "an obvious liar".

What is your personal knowledge here? Why do you loathe the victims?

Roger's probably still trying to find the 1977 Lancaster House Conference and the 1978 Zimbabwe elections.....

DavidL

Sometimes you have to wonder if even Fraser Nelson believes what he writes: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/10145995/Our-tantric-Chancellor-doesnt-realise-hes-winning-the-debate.html

George Osborne doesn't know he is winning the debate he says.

Oh I think he does. If he got any more smug about how things are going right now he would be in serious danger from sharp objects, if not spherical ones.

Mick_Pork

DavidL said:

If he got any more smug about how things are going right now he would be in serious danger from sharp objects, if not spherical ones.

I fear his smugness may reach critical levels once we see his next set of no doubt stratospheric approval ratings. Otherwise there will be a great deal of pie on a great many faces for Osbrowne to make some amusing tweetpics of.

CarlottaVance

Neil said:

CarlottaVance said:

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

Your criticism of a politician for failing to offer up his family's health records to the media is odious.

it was not my criticism - it was an observation by Ben Goldacre of the impact of a choice the Blairs made in an evolving health crisis. Had Cherie not then gone on to discuss the conception of said child and his vaccination history when promoting her book, then such criticism might have greater strength...

CarlottaVance

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

Your motivation is crystal clear

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

So transparent.

As was your smearing at the time - Hutchings ignorance on MMR followed the mainstream media reporting - and was not repeated after Wakefield was discredited. But you forget that. Always.

TGOHF

Laurie Penny on Newsnight reading from the same script as tim - eyeopening..

Scrapheap_as_was

Oh dear.- Laboursham.


Rob Marchant ‏@rob_marchant 12m
Mandy's faint praise rapier: [McCluskey] "Fresh from winning the endorsement of 9.7% of Unite’s 1.5m members". Ouch. http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/06/27/no-more-falkirk-wests …


Tom Newton Dunn Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 12m
EXCL: Too far, too fast, too often? @edballsmp is convicted of yet another traffic offence – running a red light. See tomorrow's Sun.

foxinsoxuk

TGOHF said:

Laurie Penny on Newsnight reading from the same script as tim - eyeopening..

She blamed the twenty year slide in support for welfare benefits on Osborne, Despite it carrying on throughout the Labour years.

She moaned about the 140 000 public sector jobs to be eliminated, and ignored the million private sector jobs created.

Penny and Owen remind me of my own days in student politics. Idealistic, passionate and wrong.

DavidL

Mick_Pork said:

DavidL said:

If he got any more smug about how things are going right now he would be in serious danger from sharp objects, if not spherical ones.

I fear his smugness may reach critical levels once we see his next set of no doubt stratospheric approval ratings. Otherwise there will be a great deal of pie on a great many faces for Osbrowne to make some amusing tweetpics of.

The people of this country don't like politicians Mick. Any politicians really but especially Chancellors.

But I would be very surprised if the gap between Cameron/Osborne and Miliband/Balls on economic competence does not widen after this week. This may be temporary of course but Labour have had a bad week.

The most legitimate criticisms of Osborne come from those such as Alanbrooke who say he is too obsessed with the politics and not enough with the economics. This is why the premise behind Nelson's latest column is so risible.

Sunil_Prasannan

SeanT said:

There are few things more boring than pb chuntering on about MMR. FFS. STFU.

We could always talk about NMR instead?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_magnetic_resonance

TGOHF

Perhaps they are related : a Tim Penny - banging on and on

CarlottaVance

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

Your motivation is crystal clear

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

So transparent.

As was your smearing at the time - Hutchings ignorance on MMR followed the mainstream media reporting - and was not repeated after Wakefield was discredited. But you forget that. Always.

Wakefields "research" was discredited before Hutchings had to be restrained during the 2005 election.

June 2006
The GMC announce that Wakefield is under investigation for professional misconduct, along with two other authors of the paper.

28 January 2010
GMC conclude a two and a half year hearing and Wakefield was found to have acted
unethically, dishonestly and irresponsibly.

Thanks for the link!

Mick_Pork

SeanT said:

There are few things more boring than pb chuntering on about MMR. FFS. STFU.

No.

CarlottaVance

tim said:

SeanT said:

There are few things more boring than pb chuntering on about MMR. FFS. STFU.

It was about GM food and politicians using or not using their children until Carlotta tried to distract the argument for transparent reasons

I think you'll find you mentioned Blair first.....

Scrapheap_as_was

Perhaps Ed was fetching a Bargain Bucket for his boss?

Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 1m
sun reports ed balls has been done for jumping a red light. BBC understands it happened in dec last year. shad chancellor got a fine.

RichardNabavi

Now here's a funny thing. I thought I'd amuse myself with a visit to Scot Goes Pop! to see how the indignation is going (very strongly, since you ask).

But the previous article, on escort agencies and disabled punters, is actually rather interesting:

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/rhoda-grant-and-entitlement.html

Scrapheap_as_was

with fries please ed.

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m
...don't think we're going to be hearing "too far, too fast" from Ed B any more...

AlastairMeeks

@RichardNabavi Now that we've found out that the union is killing Scots, perhaps the next step is to find out that independence would give Scots more fulfilling relationships.

CarlottaVance

@tim Goldacre:

"Because in 2006, at exactly the same time as they were unanimously refusing even to mention these studies, they were covering an identical claim, using identical experimental methodology: “US scientists back autism link to MMR” said the Telegraph. “Scientists fear MMR link to autism” squealed the Mail."

Scrapheap_as_was

I wonder what hand gestures Ed B will be facing in future in the commons

A straight palm - wait
A rotating grip to suggest revving of motorbike engine
Writing a cheque squiggle as when asking a waiter for a bill

Andy_JS

Laurie Penny is always entertaining. She's one of those public school girl Jewish princesses, like Luciana Berger. (That's not an insult, by the way, but a compliment).

DavidL

Looks like France is going to have a rather more serious bout of austerity than anything yet seen in this country: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10147219/Tempers-fray-in-France-as-drastic-cuts-loom.html

The temptation to schadenfreude is great but actually this is another demonstration of the absurdity of the EZ and the EU. Having inherited the economy from a conservative government France has a far smaller deficit than we do but is under enormous pressure to cut far more drastically to meet some notional target that seems to have been dreamed up from a similar location to the figures provided by the directors of Allied Irish.

Given they already have higher unemployment and an even greater need for supply side reforms coated with the sugar of a little extra spending this is almost the worst possible medicine for a sick patient.

Thank goodness our leadership fully understand that Hollande is on the wrong path.

Oh.

Mick_Pork

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

Your motivation is crystal clear

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

So transparent.

As was your smearing at the time - Hutchings ignorance on MMR followed the mainstream media reporting - and was not repeated after Wakefield was discredited. But you forget that. Always.

Wakefields "research" was discredited before Hutchings had to be restrained during the 2005 election.

http://www.drtribe.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=697:mmr-scandal-the-timeline&catid=46:general-medical-news&Itemid=182

Neil and Mick Pork, neither Blair supporters have nailed your position on GM/MMR/Cameron/Blair quite nicely.

It's a complex area because once a scare starts there is very little time to either nip it in the bud or get precautions in place because not all scares are baseless. That BSE was nowhere near as deadly as was once feared did not stop it being fatal in many cases and cause incredible suffering as it did so. Gummer got it wrong, but was it just his fault? There are scientific advisors for this very reason and the likes of Clegg , Cammie and Blair have easy access to them so ignorance is no excuse.

What Clegg actually said was more nuanced than the headline makes out (as always) yet he knows what Cammie's line was so it is inconceivable he was not aware that he was creating a dividing line on a still very contentious issue for many.

AndreaParma_82

South Tyneside - Cleadon & E Boldon

Lab 991
Con 899
UKIP 666

Sunil_Prasannan

Liz Kendal!

Neil

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Mandy's faint praise rapier: [McCluskey] "Fresh from winning the endorsement of 9.7% of Unite’s 1.5m members". Ouch.

Tbf that's more people than voted for Mandy for anything, ever.

Sunil_Prasannan

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Cleadon & E Boldon

Lab 991
Con 899
UKIP 666

UKIP gift the seat to Labour then?

fitalass

Twitter
Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 14m
...don't think we're going to be hearing "too far, too fast" from Ed B any more...

Could have been worse, he might have been photographed eating a posh burger and fries

Mick_Pork

DavidL said:

The people of this country don't like politicians. Any politicians really but especially Chancellors.

There's your election slogan for 2015.


Good luck with that.

DavidL said:

he is too obsessed with the politics and not enough with the economics.

Hence Osbrowne.

AndreaParma_82

Con win Rutland

CarlottaVance

Mick_Pork said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

Your motivation is crystal clear

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

So transparent.

As was your smearing at the time - Hutchings ignorance on MMR followed the mainstream media reporting - and was not repeated after Wakefield was discredited. But you forget that. Always.

Wakefields "research" was discredited before Hutchings had to be restrained during the 2005 election.

http://www.drtribe.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=697:mmr-scandal-the-timeline&catid=46:general-medical-news&Itemid=182

Neil and Mick Pork, neither Blair supporters have nailed your position on GM/MMR/Cameron/Blair quite nicely.

What Clegg actually said was more nuanced than the headline makes out .

Indeed:

"“If you don’t grow the stuff in the first place you can hardly feed it to your children."

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/gm-food-nick-clegg-not-2004582#ixzz2XSUvAN1B

AlastairMeeks

It's deja vu all over again:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/05/ed-balls-admits-caught-speeding

Sunil_Prasannan

Cleadon percentages:

Lab 39
Con 35
UKIP 26

changes on 2012

Lab -7
Con -19 (!)
UKIP +26

Neil

Anybody else think Chris Huhne might be at home reading about Ed Balls and thinking to himself, "I should have just done that"?

CarlottaVance

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Cleadon & E Boldon

Lab 991
Con 899
UKIP 666

UKIP gift the seat to Labour then?

With the mark of the beast too!

AndreaParma_82

Cleadon & East Boldon is in South Shields constituency.

The deceased Cllr was elected as Conservative but later defected to UKIP.

AndreaParma_82

South Tyneside - Primerose

Lab 755
UKIP 520
BNP 146
CON 80

Roger

@Foxy

"Penny and Owen remind me of my own days in student politics. Idealistic, passionate and wrong."

What a depressing post. I don't suppose living in Birmingham helps.

foxinsoxuk

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Liz Kendal!

Leicesters own....

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

Your motivation is crystal clear

As is the lefts to absolve St Tony in his (no doubt unintentional) role in the MMR saga...

So transparent.

As was your smearing at the time - Hutchings ignorance on MMR followed the mainstream media reporting - and was not repeated after Wakefield was discredited. But you forget that. Always.

Wakefields "research" was discredited before Hutchings had to be restrained during the 2005 election.

http://www.drtribe.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=697:mmr-scandal-the-timeline&catid=46:general-medical-news&Itemid=182

Neil and Mick Pork, neither Blair supporters have nailed your position on GM/MMR/Cameron/Blair quite nicely.

What Clegg actually said was more nuanced than the headline makes out .

Indeed:

"“If you don’t grow the stuff in the first place you can hardly feed it to your children."

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/gm-food-nick-clegg-not-2004582#ixzz2XSUvAN1B

Yet he still said

“I don’t knowingly feed my children GM food."

and

“To be honest I can’t ever knowlingly remember picking up anything in the supermarket, does this say whether it is GM or not. It is not the basis on which we feed our children."

Which is catnip to a tabloid.

JohnO

O/T - Hearing that the reshuffle may be next week.

What are the odds on Lansley being fired - Uncle John's fickle finger of fate is pointing at him.

CarlottaVance

AndreaParma_82 said:

Cleadon & East Boldon is in South Shields constituency.

The deceased Cllr was elected as Conservative but later defected to UKIP.

Tragic case - died very young - but clearly had his troubles

http://tyneandwear.sky.com/news/article/65318/death-at-30-of-alcoholic-ukip-south-tyneside-councillor-david

Sunil_Prasannan

JohnO said:

Uncle John's fickle finger of fate is pointing at him.

Oo-er missus!!!

MikeK

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Cleadon & E Boldon

Lab 991
Con 899
UKIP 666

UKIP gift the seat to Labour then?

UKIP considers both Labour and Tories to be equally repugnant. I make it about 26% for UKIP. not bad for a labour heartland.

MikeK

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Primerose

Lab 755
UKIP 520
BNP 146
CON 80

Another good result for UKIP in a labour stronghold. JohnO should be worried.

MarkSenior

MikeK said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Cleadon & E Boldon

Lab 991
Con 899
UKIP 666

UKIP gift the seat to Labour then?

UKIP considers both Labour and Tories to be equally repugnant. I make it about 26% for UKIP.,
not bad for a labour heartland

Hardly a Labour heartland , in the South of England this ward would have a Conservative majority as large as many in Surrey .

Neil

JohnO said:

Uncle John's fickle finger of fate is pointing at him.

This could mean that Lansley is for the chop ... or that he's going to end up in Bournemouth by accident

Sunil_Prasannan

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Primerose

Lab 755
UKIP 520
BNP 146
CON 80

Percentages Primrose:

Lab 50
UKIP 35
BNP 10
Con 5 (!!!)

changes on 2012

Lab -25 (!!!)
UKIP +35 (!!!)
BNP -3
Con -6

AndreaParma_82

Con hold in Billericay East
Labour gain Southway-Plymouth

MikeK

MarkSenior said:

MikeK said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Cleadon & E Boldon

Lab 991
Con 899
UKIP 666

UKIP gift the seat to Labour then?

UKIP considers both Labour and Tories to be equally repugnant. I make it about 26% for UKIP.,
not bad for a labour heartland

Hardly a Labour heartland , in the South of England this ward would have a Conservative majority as large as many in Surrey .

Apologies for calling it Labour land, Mark. Still, we cannot tell the difference.

JohnO

tim said:

JohnO said:

O/T - Hearing that the reshuffle may be next week.

What are the odds on Lansley being fired - Uncle John's fickle finger of fate is pointing at him.

He was semi fired last time so there's no odds on him, there's an ante room full of undead semi cabinet ministers who are in limbo due to Cameron's inability to get rid of them.

What ARE you drivelling about now? Go to bed and don't reappear until I give you permission.

RodCrosby

OT: Any pianists on here? I'm thinking of getting a digital piano in the £500-600 range. I know Yamaha used to be the gold standard but I'm tempted by the new model Casio PX-350. Any thoughts?

CarlottaVance

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Primerose
Lab 755
UKIP 520
BNP 146
CON 80

Share:
Lab: 50 (-25)
UKIP 34 (+34)
BNP 10 (-3)
Con 5 (-6)

JohnO

Neil said:

JohnO said:

Uncle John's fickle finger of fate is pointing at him.

This could mean that Lansley is for the chop ... or that he's going to end up in Bournemouth by accident

I declare you the naughtiest pbTory that ever did live.

AndreaParma_82

Health Concern gain from UKIP in Wyre Forest

Neil

@JohnO

I've done much, much worse. I've just been careful not to admit to it on here

We must win some more bets to pay for the next cocktail party!

Sunil_Prasannan

CarlottaVance said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

South Tyneside - Primerose
Lab 755
UKIP 520
BNP 146
CON 80

Share:
Lab: 50 (-25)
UKIP 34 (+34)
BNP 10 (-3)
Con 5 (-6)

UKIP 35, Carlotta!

MrJones

SeanT said:

Question for pb-ers.

What do Charlene Downes, Mary Ann Leneghan, Gavin Hopley, Christopher Yates have in common?

Nobody knows their names.

RichardB

Labour win in Dartford and Plymouth.

Newtown, Dartford result

Lab 536, UKIP 376, Con 268 - Turnout 23.01. Lab gain from Con

Awaiting full Plymouth figures

MikeK

Billericay East Result

Andrew Peter Schrader Conservative 790 51%
Terry Gandy UKIP Local Residents 464 30%
Lauren Emma Brown Labour 170 11%
Nigel John Horn Liberal Democrat 128 8%
Thomas Frank Beaney National Front 3 0%

RichardB

Sorry I was a bit quick there. Con 376, UKIP 268 in Dartford - Tories second.

DavidL

Neil said:

Anybody else think Chris Huhne might be at home reading about Ed Balls and thinking to himself, "I should have just done that"?

Well he better be. Is he not still on a curfew?

Neil

SeanT said:

Question for pb-ers.

What do Charlene Downes, Mary Ann Leneghan, Gavin Hopley, Christopher Yates have in common?

You read about them all on stormfront?

JohnO

@Neil - Alas all my remaining bets with tim don't mature until 2015, and though he's going to lose them all, the misanthropic bugger is refusing to accept my more than generous offer of a 10% discount if he coughs up earlier.

MikeK

UKIP are getting results percentages in all these by elections, far different from YouGov polls.
Perhaps they should look at their methodology or go out of buisiness.

AveryLP

RichardNabavi said:

Now here's a funny thing. I thought I'd amuse myself with a visit to Scot Goes Pop! to see how the indignation is going (very strongly, since you ask).

But the previous article, on escort agencies and disabled punters, is actually rather interesting:

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/rhoda-grant-and-entitlement.html

Richard, did you leave a comment when you visited the 14th most popular blog in Scotland?

I have just done so.